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Acting on secret Obama-Putin Syria deal, Moscow’s air strikes focus first on rebels, next on ISIS

November 18, 2015

Acting on secret Obama-Putin Syria deal, Moscow’s air strikes focus first on rebels, next on ISIS, DEBKAfile, November 18, 2015

Putin50

As a result of the deal between the two presidents, 75 percent of Russian attacks in Syria Tuesday were aimed against various rebel groups (around Hama and Aleppo), and only 25 percent against ISIS (at its Raqqa headquarters) and Al-Nusra Front targets.

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The secret deal for a political solution for the Syria conflict reached by Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Antalya over the weekend has radically changed and intensified Russia’s air strike tactics in the last 24 hours.

For the first time since the intensified Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war in the last week of September, Russian air force planes took off Tuesday, Nov. 17 for attacks on Syrian rebel and ISIS targets, from a home base, the Morozovsk airbase in the southern Rostov district. Until now, the Russian bombers had taken off from Hmeymim airbase near Latakia.

Also for the first time, they lofted Tupolev Tu-160 and Tupolev Tu-95 bombers. The Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack is a long-range strategic bomber and the biggest combat aircraft in the world, while the Tu-95 Bear is a huge strategic bomber with four turboprop-powered engines that is also used to launch missiles.

DEBKAfile’s military sources note that that the entry of these heavy bombers marks an increase in the frequency of the attacks and in the firepower used by Russia against the rebels and ISIS. Together with the firing of advanced Russian Kalibr cruise missiles at targets in Syria – also for the first time on Tuesday – these changes substantially escalate the Russian military effort in Syria.

Western sources take these changes to mean that Putin is driving hell-bent to settle accounts with the Islamic State after the downing of the Russian plane over Sinai on Oct. 31, and that he will coordinate this effort with French President Francois Hollande, who is due in Moscow in the coming days.

However, DEBKAfile reports that the new, stepped up Russian aerial offensive is fact bringing forward certain – not necessarily jihadist – Syrian rebel groups as Moscow’s priority targets, with ISIS only in second place.

In their 30-minute conversation on Sunday, Nov. 15, our sources reveal, Obama secretly accepted most points of Putin’s plan for a political resolution of the Syrian conflict (first revealed by DEBKA Weekly earlier this month), with the exception of the point relating to Bashar Assad’s future.

The White House and the Kremlin consequently announced a joint decision on a cease-fire in Syria to be followed by UN-mediated negotiations between the rebels and the Assad regime.

The first point of the Russian blueprint called for intensified air strikes by the US and Russia against rebel groups refusing to enter into these negotiations in order to force them to toe the line.

As a result of the deal between the two presidents, 75 percent of Russian attacks in Syria Tuesday were aimed against various rebel groups (around Hama and Aleppo), and only 25 percent against ISIS (at its Raqqa headquarters) and Al-Nusra Front targets.

Obama agreed to Russian expanding its air campaign to this end for at least three weeks. It was also decided that Russia would beef it up with another 25 heavy bombers and addition warplanes.

Meanwhile, also on Tuesday, Russia released the findings of its investigation into the downing of a Russian airliner on October 31 in the Sinai Peninsula that caused the deaths of all 224 passengers and crew.

Putin and the heads of the Russian intelligence community have concluded that the destruction of Metrojet Flight 9268 soon after takeoff from Sharm El Sheikh was the result of a bomb planted on board by terrorists. Egypt quickly rejected the conclusion, claiming there was no proof of it whatsoever. But the conclusion led Putin to offer an unprecedented $50 million reward for information leading to the capture of those who planted the bomb.

According to our counterterrorism sources, Russian intelligence chiefs are convinced that certain top Egyptian military and security service officers know exactly who was responsible. The enormous reward was offered to draw them out and tempt them to break ranks with Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi’s dogged resistance to the charges of a terrorist hand at work behind the Russian air disaster. After all, 50 million dollars must be hard to resist.

Categories: Foreign policy, Islamic State, Obama and Syria, Putin, Russia - Syrian war
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Ayaan Hirsi Ali: We need to face problem of radical Islam

November 17, 2015

Ayaan Hirsi Ali: We need to face problem of radical Islam, Fox News, November 17, 2015

Categories: Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Islam, Islamic nations, Islamic slaughter, Islamic State, Israel, Obama and Islam
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Muslim Activists Demand Action vs Islamist Extremism

November 17, 2015

Muslim Activists Demand Action vs Islamist Extremism, Clarion Project, Elliot Friedland, November 13, 2015

(Shhh. Don’t tell Obama, but these Muslims think that the Islamic State is Islamic and want reform. He might treat them as he does Egyptian President Sisi.– DM)

Iraq-Protest-Sharia-Legislation-HP_1Protesters in Iraq march against anti-women sharia legislation. (Photo: © Reuters)

“The threat of global terrorism is unlikely to end until the resolution of the civil war of ideas between Muslim modernisers and those adhering to an outmoded theology of Islamic dominance.”

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In the aftermath of Friday’s Paris attacks, Muslim human rights activists around the world are galvanizing the fightback against the Islamist extremist ideology and those who deny the conection between the Islamic State and Islam.

The chairman of the UK’s Conservative Muslim Forum, Mohammed Amin, slammed the inaction of Muslim groups saying “condemning terrorism is not enough if you are unwilling to acknowledge its causes.”

He said condemnations of terrorism from groups like Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) and the Muslim Council of Britain left him “feeling frustrated –  because they look so incomplete.”

“I am utterly fed up with hearing people, both Muslim and non-Muslim, argue that the religious views of the terrorists are irrelevant,” he said.

Counter-extremism activist Maajid Nawaz supported Amin on Facebook saying,“None of us Muslims deserves an infantile pat on the back merely for condemning ISIS, which even al-Qaeda does.”

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Anti-extremism activist and journalist Felix Marquardt went further, demanding “We Muslims must hunt down these monsters who make a mockery of our religion” in a fiery op-ed in Britain’s The Daily Telegraph.

He called out Muslims who merely say ISIS has “nothing to do with Islam,” despite that being the first reaction of a Muslim. He labelled it “dubious intellectually and altogether irresponsible to keep our reaction at that.”

Dr. Zudhi Jasser, head of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, identified a “cultural battle, a battle of ideologies” as the root cause.

Raheel Raza of the Council of Muslims Facing Tomorrow implored both Muslims and non-Muslims to “connect the dots to get to the root of terrorism,” arguing that “Since 9/11, the West has been waffling in the quicksand of political correctness and refuse to call a spade a spade.”

She too identifies the root cause of the Islamic State as the ideology of radical Islamism.

The former ambassador of Pakistan to the United States, Hussein Haqqani, also pointed to extremist ideology as the root cause of the Paris attacks.

“Just as the post-9/11 war against al-Qaeda degraded Osama bin Laden’s group but gave rise to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)” he writes, “extremist Islamist ideology will likely give birth to ‘Terrorism 3.0’ once the world has fought, contained and eliminated ISIL.”

This is because, he argues, “The threat of global terrorism is unlikely to end until the resolution of the civil war of ideas between Muslim modernisers and those adhering to an outmoded theology of Islamic dominance.”

Haqqani resoundingly concludes “only a concerted ideological campaign against medieval Islamist ideology, like the one that discredited and contained communism, could turn the tide.”

These are just a handful of the growing number of Muslims who are fighting the Islamist ideology on the front lines and within their own communities.

They, more than anyone, know that this is not a “clash of civilizations” between East and West but a political battle between tolerance and intolerance, between fundamentalism and openness and between theocracy and democracy.

These brave thinkers and leaders are sounding the charge and deserve our support.

Maajid Nawaz of the Quilliam Foundation names the Islamist ideology:

Categories: Islam, Islamic indoctrination, Islamic jihad, Islamic slaughter, Islamic State, Islamic supremacy, Islamism, Moderate Muslims, Obama and Islam, Paris Muslim attack
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The Islamic State (ISIS) And Palestine – Rhetoric vs. Reality

November 17, 2015

The Islamic State (ISIS) And Palestine – Rhetoric vs. Reality, MEMRI, R. Green, November 17, 2015

(Please see also, ISIS THREAT’S ISRAEL IN HEBREW 22 OCTOBER 2015. — DM)

The Islamic State’s (ISIS) extensive information campaign, titled “Slaughter the Jews,”[1] that it recently launched in the wake of the recent wave of violent events in Israel and the Palestinian territories has had numerous reverberations. The campaign includes all the elements familiar from previous ISIS campaigns, including copious use of social media to encourage terror attacks, and videos featuring armed activists making threats and urging intensification and escalation of attacks. This ISIS campaign and the threats it has included have been covered extensively by media in the West and Israel, with excessive focus on threats to Israel and the Jews and on the campaign’s colorful details, such as the fact that two of the activists in the videos issued their threats in Hebrew. This campaign, and the events of the past few months in general, have again raised the question of ISIS’s view of the Palestinian issue and the war on Israel.

Despite the Slaughter the Jews campaign, which has been aimed primarily at the Palestinians, and its impact, it should be stressed that the Palestinian cause is not a major issue to ISIS. Unlike many Arab and Islamic movements and organizations for whom the liberation of Palestine, Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa mosque, and the fight against Israel head their priorities, or who at least claim this to be the case, ISIS perceives them as long term goals. ISIS’s top priority is fighting what it considers to be Islam’s internal enemies – the Shi’ites and the secular regimes. It sees conquering Baghdad, Damascus, Cairo, and Mecca as taking precedence over liberating Jerusalem.

Additionally, the idea of a Palestinian state goes completely against ISIS’s religious and ideological idea; its vision is based on the establishment of a caliphate that is not subject to the modern geopolitical limitations, and under which there is no place for separate states. It also rejects outright democratic principles and any adherence to the international community’s rules that the Palestinian movements, including the Islamic ones, have accepted.

ISIS is highly capable of quickly launching an information campaign comprising videos produced by its official media wings, videos and informational material created by its unofficial media bodies, and very extensive discourse via social media, and this is what it has done in this case as well.[2] Therefore, despite the scope of this particular campaign, it should not be viewed as indicative of a significant shift in ISIS’s focus or priorities.

To clarify: ISIS is not disregarding the Palestinian cause; it recognizes its importance for the Arab and Islamic world, and exploits it, as do other regimes, organizations, and movements, as an element in its arsenal of informational tools and as a means of recruiting supporters. Furthermore, it is riding the wave of media attention it gained with its threats of attacks against Israel in order to strike at its main rival in the Palestinian arena – that is, Hamas.

ISIS has no real organized presence among the Palestinians in either the Gaza Strip or the West Bank. Most of its manpower is directed to the Sinai, and to the combat arenas in Syria and Iraq, where training and fighting take place. The ISIS activists in the Gaza Strip are tasked with promoting ISIS’s information enterprise and helping spread its ideology among the population there.

ISIS’s Leadership Devotes No Special Attention To Palestine

A look at statements by ISIS’s leadership shows the organization’s relatively low ranking of the Palestinian cause. In their speeches, ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and its spokesman Abu Muhammad Al-‘Adnani, the only top leaders who speak for the organization, barely mention it in their speeches. In his first address as caliph, in July 2014, Al-Baghdadi included Palestine in a long list of locations where Muslims are suffering and oppressed, but made no special reference to it.[3] In his most recent speech, released in May 2015, he mentioned Palestine not as an issue per se but only as a taunt to the Saudis; the speech itself rebuked the Saudi royal family and stated that Saudi Arabia had done nothing for the Palestinians. In that speech, he refers to the “Jews” as allies of the Christian “Crusaders,” that is, the Western forces, and even as the instigators of the Western aggression against the Islamic world – a standard element of jihadi rhetoric, the most well-known example being Osama bin Laden’s 1998 declaration of “jihad against the Jews and the Crusaders.” Referring to his men in the Sinai, he takes care to praise them for threatening the “Jews,” that is, Israel.[4]

ISIS spokesman Al-‘Adnani also has not specifically referred to the Palestinians in his speeches, aside from a mention of Palestine in a long list of countries where Muslims are under attack. Furthermore, in an address released in early October 2015, following the outbreak of the current violence and the headlines about the Palestinians that it garnered, he mentioned the Palestinians not at all.[5] This omission was harshly criticized by ISIS’s Islamist opponents.[6]

25734ISIS activists in Syria: “We will only defeat the Jews by purging the country of its Arab rulers”

ISIS Leader Al-Baghdadi Is Absent From The Videos In “Slaughter The Jews” Campaign

One feature of ISIS videos is the underlining of points and honing of messages by the use of audio segments from past speeches by leaders of ISIS and its precursor groups, as well as from speeches by deceased jihadi leaders, including from Al-Qaeda, who never criticized ISIS. However, the video series of the “Slaughter the Jews” campaign includes barely any audio statements by actual ISIS leaders, and none by Al-Baghdadi himself – though statements by Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda commander Abu Laith Al-Libi are featured. Statements by ISIS spokesman Al-‘Adnani are included, but these are merely are non-specific calls for terror attacks in general, not for war on Israel.

Two videos in the “Slaughter the Jews” series, one produced by ISIS’s Al-Furat province (which covers the cities of Albu Kammal and Al-Qa’im) and one by its Al-Raqqa province, present audio statements from 2008 and 2009 speeches, respectively, by the head of the ISIS precursor group Islamic State of Iraq, Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi.

Another video in the series includes audio of Abu Mus’ab Al-Zarqawi, founder of the ISIS precursor Tawhid and Jihad, saying: “We fight in Iraq and our eyes are set on Bait Al-Maqdis [Jerusalem], which will be resored only by means of the guiding Koran and the victorious sword.”[7] This particular statement has become a slogan for jihadis everywhere and sums up their view, i.e., while at this time we are not fighting Israel and are not actively working to liberate Jerusalem and its holy sites, we are still focused on that goal, and will liberate it according to our faith and principles – that is, we will act in accordance with the pure Salafi Islam and by means of a jihad war.[8] Many ISIS activists appearing in the videos also reiterated this, passionately promising the Palestinians, while pointing at their eyes to indicate sincerity, that ISIS has not abandoned them.

25735ISIS fighter delivers threatening message in Hebrew and brandishes a knife in a video produced by the Damascus Province as part of the “Slaughter the Jews” campaign

The Main Thrust Of The Videos In The “Slaughter The Jews” Campaign: Anti-Hamas Rhetoric

Along with the calls and the encouragement to continue and step up the attacks, a large number, perhaps even a majority, of the videos in the “Slaughter the Jews” campaign are devoted to ISIS’s ideological dispute with Hamas, and, to a lesser extent, with the PLO; these two movements control the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian Authority, respectively, and vie with each other for support among the Palestinians. In the videos, ISIS repeatedly attacks both movements; this reflects its need to counter accusations about its inaction on the Palestinian issue and in the fight against Israel.

A video produced by the ISIS province of Al-Barakah in Syria (Al-Hasaka) featured one Abu Osama Al-Falistini directly addressing the criticism of ISIS for its noninvolvement in the Palestinian issue. He hinted that the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip, which he said is preventing attacks against Israel from being launched from there, was to blame for this: “Why don’t the caliphate soldiers come to liberate Palestine? Why are the mujahideen leaving Palestine, the land of jihad, to begin with? We say to them [i.e. the critics]: We have only left [Palestine] because of the barrier between us and jihad there, and because of the barrier between us and the Jews. Those who are in Palestine know this.”[9]

A video by ISIS’s Al-Raqqa province featured an ISIS member from Gaza, Abu Annas Al-Ghazawi, saying: “This nationalist belief that inspires some fighters in Bait Al-Maqdis [i.e. Jerusalem, that is, all of Palestine] is part of the occupation carried out by the Jews. They have conquered the people’s minds and inserted into them this failed and false belief – the nationalist belief in which loyalty is based on nationalism and on borders set by Sykes and Picot. This belief is part of the Jewish invasion of our people in Bait Al-Maqdis.

“We [declare] before Allah that we are innocent of this failed nationalist belief. We believe that these nationalist organizations, that champion nationalist loyalty, that die for the nation, and that call themselves national liberation movements, are infidel cults, and their belief is unconnected to Islam, because a Muslim’s faith is based on tawhid [the Islamic concept of monotheism]… Our men in Bait Al-Maqdis would do better to fight a jihad war based on this belief [i.e. tawhid].”[10]

ISIS member Abu Al-Bara’ Al-Shami stressed that jihad must be pure, and harshly attacked Hamas for turning to democracy and for failing to implement shari’a law: “The real thing is this religion, which can only be established by means of pure jihad for the sake of Allah, in order to make His word supreme, and to institute His laws rather than the laws of treacherous arrogant parties that have strayed from the path… Do you not see how Hamas, which speaks of nothing but liberation and resistance, ran for election on these slogans to attract your hearts and to fill the ballot boxes with your votes [for it]? Its wish came true, and then the mask came off; it attained its desire and seized power and ruled the Muslims not according to their shari’a; it hobbled them, and it fought anyone who called for implementing the shari’a [i.e. Salafi-jihadis], and called for [restoring] the glory of the caliphate [a reference to ISIS supporters].

“At the same time, [Hamas] shamelessly embraced the Zoroastrians [pejorative for Iranian Shi’ites] who invaded the land. They fought the shari’a, but welcomed the spread of the Shi’a [in the Gaza Strip], and, as is their custom, claim that this is all for the sake of the [Palestinian] cause. Their self-righteousness is like the chastity of a whore with nine bastard sons.”[11]

25736Palestinian ISIS activists in Syria with a sign reading: “Oh our men in Gaza – by Allah, there is an enemy preventing us from coming to your aid.” (Source: Twitter.com/ansar_al_shari, June 7, 2015)

ISIS In Sinai To Palestinians: “We Have Not Forgotten You”

One final note about ISIS’s Sinai Province: Situated at Israel’s border, it is one of ISIS’s most formidable extensions. In ISIS’s view, the Sinai Province is its spearhead in the war against Israel, as conveyed by Al-Baghdadi himself in his May 2015 speech: “We ask Allah the Glorified to allow us to see you in Bait Al-Maqdis [Jerusalem] very soon.”[12]

However, since July 2013, the jihadis in the Sinai are completely dedicated to their jihad against the government of Egypt,[13] to the point that in the Sinai Province’s video for the “Slaughter the Jews” campaign, its spokesman, Abu Osama Al-Masri, felt compelled to promise the Palestinians: “Oh Muslims in Bait Al-Maqdis, we in Sinai have not forgotten you… The banners of the caliphate shall reach you.” He too accused Hamas of preventing ISIS from fighting Israel: “You are standing between us and them [the Israelis]! You have dug trenches between us and them. You are protecting your allies, the Jews.”[14]

Another recent video[15] by ISIS’s Sinai Province specifically threatened the Egyptian military; the ISIS fighter appearing in it also stressed that his organization has not abandoned the fight against Israel and threatened: “As for you Jews, you people of the gharqad tree, know that the time has drawn near. Do not think for a second that our war with your apostate lackeys will keep us away from you for much longer. We shall renew our punishment operations, like the one at Umm Al-Rashrash [Eilat, in August 2011], very soon. You will regret everything that you did to the Muslims.

“We have a meeting with the rocks and the trees. The time has drawn near for them to call to us and say: ‘Oh Muslim, oh servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him.’ The [Jews] think that this day is far away, but we know that it will come soon. When the day comes, you will be surprised to see that the nation that you have tried for decades to make disappear has arisen to fight you, in order to eradicate you.”

To be sure, such threats should be taken with all seriousness. Yet the context of the threat is noteworthy: It came at the very end of a video in which ISIS lashed out at the Egyptian military and vowed revenge for its operations against it; it promises vengeance against the Egyptian military in the near future, whereas with regard to “the Jews,” the speaker invokes the hadith about Jews hiding behind trees and stones, which will take place on Judgment Day.

25737Abu Osama Al-Masri, prominent figure in ISIS’s Sinai Province

Endnotes:

[1] See MEMRI JTTM report ISIS Campaign: Encouraging Palestinians To Carry Out Lone Wolf Attacks, October 20, 2015.

[2] Other examples of recent coordinated campaigns by ISIS’s propaganda machine include a campaign against Muslim emigration to Europe in light of the refugee crisis, and a campaign calling on Somali jihadi members of Al-Shaba Al-Mujahideen to join ISIS.

[3] See MEMRI JTTM report In New Message Following Being Declared A ‘Caliph,’ Islamic State Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Promises Support To Oppressed Muslims Everywhere, Tells His Soldiers: ‘You Will Conquer Rome’, July 1, 2014.

[4] See MEMRI JTTM report In New Audio Speech, Islamic State (ISIS) Leader Al-Baghdadi Issues Call To Arms To All Muslims, May 14, 2015.

[5] See MEMRI JTTM report ISIS Spokesman Reiterates Islamic State’s Steadfastness Against Coalition Campaign, Calls For Jihad Against Russia, Confirms Death Of Top ISIS Figure, October 13, 2015.

[6] See, for example, tweet by Salafi cleric Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi. Twitter.com/imaqdese, October 15, 2015.

[7] The comments were featured in a video posted on jihadi message boards. Al-Jazeera, April 26, 2006.

[8] The expression “the guiding Koran and the victorious sword” that Zarqawi cited is taken from the writings of 14th century Islamic thinker Ibn Taymiyyah. By quoting him in this context, Al-Zarqawi means that Jerusalem will be liberated by a jihadi organization that operates on the basis of a pure Salafi-jihadi ideology, thereby rejecting the attitude of Arab nation states, secular nationalist movements such as the PLO, and the Muslim Brotherhood and particularly its Palestinian branch Hamas.

[9] Shamikh1.info, October 19, 2015.

[10] Shamikh1.info, October 20, 2015.

[11] Shamikh1.info, October 20, 2015.

[12] For an in-depth look at how ISIS views its Sinai Province, see MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1201, ISIS In Sinai Increases Military, Propaganda Pressure On Egypt, November 8, 2015. For Al-Baghdadi’s speech, see MEMRI JTTM, In New Audio Speech, Islamic State (ISIS) Leader Al-Baghdadi Issues Call To Arms To All Muslims, May 14, 2015.

[13] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 999, Salafi-Jihadis In Sinai Call For Jihad Against Egyptian Military,  July 24, 2013.

[14] See MEMRI JTTM ISIS Sinai Province Promises To Bring Battle To Palestine, Calls Upon Muslims Everywhere To Kill Jews, November 1, 2015.

[15] See MEMRI JTTMISIS Sinai Threatens To Punish Egyptian Military For Operation Martyr’s Right, November 11, 2015.

Categories: Hamas, Islam's war on Jews, Islamic State, Israel, Palestinians, Shiite, Sunni
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UN: ISIS expanding in Libya

November 17, 2015

UN: ISIS expanding in Libya, Front Page Magazine, Daniel Greenfield, November 17, 2015

Libya

According to Obama, ISIS has been contained. But the UN tells a different story. Not about Iraq, but Obama’s own war of choice in Libya.

Islamic State militants have consolidated control over central Libya, carrying out summary executions, beheadings and amputations, the United Nations said on Monday in a further illustration of the North African state’s descent into anarchy.

All sides in Libya’s multiple armed conflicts are committing breaches of international law that may amount to war crimes, including abductions, torture and the killing of civilians, according to a U.N. report.

Obama and Hilllary’s regime change plan for Libya really worked out. It worked so well that neither of them wants to talk about it.

Islamic State (IS) has gained control over swathes of territory, “committing gross abuses including public summary executions of individuals based on their religion or political allegiance”, the joint report by the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights and the U.N. Support Mission in Libya said.

It’s like the time that Hillary said, “We came, we saw, he died.” Except ISIS does that sort of thing for real.

But if you listen to the White House terrorsplain all this. ISIS attacked Paris because it’s weak. Obama is unable to defeat ISIS because he’s so strong. Black is white. Up is down. Lies are truth.

Categories: Clinton, Islamic State, Libya, Obama and Islamic State, Obama and Libya
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The West and Islam

November 17, 2015

The West and Islam, Washington Times, Robert W. Merry, November 16, 2015

West and IslamIllustration on the clash of civilizations by Linas Garsys/The Washington Times

France’s 4.7 million Muslims now constitute about 7.5 percent of the country’s population, and that number is projected to hit nearly 7 million by 2030. Generally, these people have not assimilated well into French society and hence constitute a mass of political and cultural anger that can only intensify in coming years.

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As the full magnitude of Friday’s Paris carnage became known, President Obama spoke to America people and the world about the horrific bloodshed in that great Western city. The president said this was not an attack simply on Paris or the French people. “It was an attack,” he said, “on all of humanity and the universal values that we share.”

This is dangerously wrongheaded. History is not about all of humanity struggling to preserve and protect universal values against benighted peoples here and there who operate outside the confines of those shared values. History is about distinct civilizations and cultures that struggle to define themselves and maintain their identities in the face of ongoing threats and challenges from other civilizations and cultures.

Compare the president’s gauzy notion to what the late Samuel P. Huntington, probably the greatest political scientist of his generation, had to say about the relationship between the West and Islam. “Some Westerners,” wrote Huntington, ” have argued that the West does not have problems with Islam but only with violent Islamist extremists. Fourteen hundred years of history demonstrate otherwise.”

This is not to say, of course, that all or even most Muslims are Islamist extremists or that Western values don’t inspire many within that civilization. But the Islamist fervor we see bubbling up within Middle Eastern Islam today emanates directly from the doctrines and history of Islam. Most Muslims of the Levant know in their hearts, in a way that most Westerners don’t recognize, that Islam and the West have been locked in a civilizational struggle for centuries — reflected in the Moors’ conquest of Spain and incursion into France in the 8th century; the centuries-long Spanish struggle to push the Moors south and finally expel them entirely from Iberia; the wars of the Crusades, inexplicable as anything but a civilizational clash; the Ottoman conquest of the Balkans and slow push up the Danube to Vienna; the two Ottoman sieges at Vienna; the long effort to push the decaying Ottoman forces back toward Istanbul (a highly civilized seat of Christianity before it fell to Islam in 1453); the European takeover of large segments of the Islamic Middle East after World War I; and the eventual pushback by angry and frustrated Muslims bent on protecting their civilization through whatever means they can devise.

That’s a lot of civilizational clash, and it belies the notion that the Paris slaughter reflects the forces of civilization struggling to preserve universal values against the forces of darkness bent on destroying those values. Huntington again: “The underlying problem for the West is not Islamic fundamentalism. It is Islam, a different civilization whose people are convinced of the superiority of their culture and are obsessed with the inferiority of their power. The problem for Islam is not the CIA or the U.S. Department of Defense. It is the West, a different civilization whose people are convinced of the universality of their culture and believe that their superior, if declining, power imposes on them the obligation to extend that culture throughout the world.”

If Huntington presents the more accurate depiction of the relationship between the West and Islam, then certain conclusions follow. First, expect the clash to intensify with Western military incursions into the lands of Islam. This isn’t conjecture. President George W. Bush played into the hands of Islamist extremists when he invaded Iraq, and Mr. Obama did the same when he expanded the Afghanistan mission to reshape political structures and behavior in the Afghan countryside. The threat to the West is greater today than it was before those actions were undertaken.

Second, Muslim immigration into the West inevitably will heighten prospects for bloodshed of the kind we saw in Paris on Friday. We learn from news reports that at least one of the Paris killers probably entered the country with the refugees now flooding into Europe. That should not surprise anyone, certainly not those who understand the true nature of the civilizational clash between the West and Islam.

France’s 4.7 million Muslims now constitute about 7.5 percent of the country’s population, and that number is projected to hit nearly 7 million by 2030. Generally, these people have not assimilated well into French society and hence constitute a mass of political and cultural anger that can only intensify in coming years.

And yet we see the Continent’s most influential leader, Germany’s Angela Merkel, beating the drums for ever greater infusions of Muslim refugees into Europe. And we see the editors of The Economist labeling her “the indispensable European.” This is what happens when humanitarian universalism supplants civilizational consciousness.

Europe is beginning to show some signs of civilizational consciousness, and that sentiment likely will intensify in the wake of the Paris bloodshed. But humanitarian universalism is powerfully embedded into the Western consciousness. Mrs. Merkel’s remarks after the Paris massacre showed little inclination to adjust her view of the world or of Europe’s future. Certainly the editors of The Economist and other like-minded liberals will never alter their gauzy notions. And news coverage of the Paris aftermath reflected the prevailing sentiment by habitually characterizing those who want to curtail Europe’s Muslim immigration as “xenophobic” and “radical.”

But the Muslim infusion represents an existential threat to Europe and the West. Maybe the people there will get rid of their current leaders now living in another world and install leaders who understand the true nature of the threat. Then again, maybe not.

Categories: Foreign policy, France, Human rights, Islam, Islamic culture, Islamic invasion, Islamic State, Islamic supremacy, Islamism, Merkel, Multiculturalism, Obama and Islam, Paris Muslim attack
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Obama: not bringing ISIS jihadists to America would “betray our values”

November 17, 2015

Obama: not bringing ISIS jihadists to America would “betray our values”

obama_muslim3

Also not freeing Al Qaeda terrorists from Gitmo would violate our values. And describing Islamic terrorism as Islamic terrorism would really violate our values.

It seems as if Obama’s version of American values is a little hard to tell apart from ISIS values. Right down to locking up a filmmaker who made a YouTube video about Mohammed.

Speaking to reporters from Islamic Turkey, a regime which has made it illegal to even discuss its own genocide and which sponsors Islamic terrorists around the world, Obama got on his high horse over the huge numbers of Syrian Muslim migrants he wants to import to America.

But not before making a bunch of excuses for his own incompetence.

“It’s not their sophistication or the particular weaponry that they possess, but it is the ideology they carry with them and their willingness to die,” Obama whined.

That would be the ideology whose name the administration is unwilling to speak. But ISIS would need much better weaponry if Europe and America didn’t insist on importing its fighters into their countries. Once there all they need is a gun or a homemade bomb to wreak havoc.

This is a war where we’re inviting in our own invaders. And Obama doubled down on keeping the invasion going.

“Slamming the door in their faces would be a betrayal of our values. Our nations can welcome refugees who are desperately seeking safety and ensure our own security. We can and must do both,” Obama promised.

Except we can’t do both. 9/11 and the World Trade Center bombing and the Boston Marathon bombing showed that. As well as the countless smaller terror plots since then.

Then Obama rejected the idea of focusing on helping persecuted Christians over the violent Islamic Supremacist majority. “When I hear folks say that, well, maybe we should just admit the Christians but not the Muslims, when I hear political leaders suggesting that there would be a religious test for which person who’s fleeing from a war-torn country is admitted, when some of those folks themselves come from families who benefited from protection when they were fleeing political persecution, that’s shameful. That’s not American. That’s not who we are. We don’t have religious tests to our compassion.”

Actually Obama does. It’s why his regime has been deporting Christians while taking in huge numbers of Muslims.

If we’re taking in refugees, we should be taking in those who genuinely have nowhere else to go in a region dominated by Muslim countries. Sunni or Shiite Muslims have their own countries they can go to.

They are not refugees.

During WW2, the United States did not admit Nazis, moderate or otherwise, as refugees. That would have been ridiculously stupid. Syria is in the middle of a religious civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. Neither side are victims. They are both perpetrators of massacres toward each other.

Obama claims that we should not “somehow start equating the issue of refugees with the issue of terrorism.”

The “somehow” part comes because refugees are an entrance point for terrorists and terrorism. It’s not “somehow”. It’s directly causative.

While Obama bleats about compassion, his compassion has been utterly lacking when it comes to persecuted Christians. He only has compassion for Muslims.

Categories: Asylum seekers, Islamic immigration, Islamic invasion, Islamic slaughter, Islamic State, Islamic supremacy, Obama and Christianity, Obama and Islam, Obama and Islamic State, Paris Muslim attack
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France’s Politically Correct War on Islamic Terror

November 16, 2015

France’s Politically Correct War on Islamic Terror, The Gatestone Institute, Soeren Kern, November 16, 2015

(Please see also, Why Islam is a religion of war. — DM)

  • French leaders consistently act in ways that undermine their stated goal of eradicating Islamic terror.
  • Critics of the policy say “Daesh” is a politically correct linguistic device that allows Western leaders to claim that the Islamic State is not Islamic — and thus ignore the root cause of Islamic terror and militant jihad.
  • French leaders have also been consistently antagonistic toward Israel, a country facing Islamic terror on a daily basis. France is leading international diplomatic efforts to push for a UN resolution that would lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within a period of two years. The move effectively whitewashes Palestinian terror.
  • French critics of Islam are routinely harassed with strategic lawsuits that seek to censor, intimidate and silence them. In a recent case, Sébastien Jallamion, a 43-year-old policeman from Lyon was suspended from his job and fined 5,000 euros after he condemned the death of Frenchman Hervé Gourdel, who was beheaded by jihadists in Algeria.
  • “Those who denounce the illegal behavior of fundamentalists are more likely to be sued than the fundamentalists who behave illegally.” — Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s Front National.

French President François Hollande has vowed to avenge the November 13 jihadist attacks in Paris that left more than 120 dead and 350 injured.

Speaking from the Élysée Palace, Hollande blamed the Islamic State for the attacks, which he called an “act of war.” He said the response from France would be “unforgiving” and “merciless.”

Despite the tough rhetoric, however, the question remains: Does Hollande understand the true nature of the war he faces?

Hollande pointedly referred to the Islamic State as “Daesh,” the acronym of the group’s full Arabic name, which in English translates as “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,” or “ISIL.”

The official policy of the French government is to avoid using the term “Islamic State” because, according to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, it “blurs the lines between Islam, Muslims and Islamists.”

Critics of the policy say “Daesh” is a politically correct linguistic device that allows Western leaders to claim that the Islamic State is not Islamic — and thus ignore the root cause of Islamic terror and militant jihad.

Islamic ideology divides the world into two spheres: the House of Islam and the House of War. The House of War (the non-Muslim world) is subject to permanent jihad until it is made part of the House of Islam, where Sharia is the law of the land.

Jihad — the perpetual struggle to expand Muslim domination throughout the world with the ultimate aim of bringing all of humanity under submission to the will of Allah — is the primary objective of true Islam, as unambiguously outlined in its foundational documents.

Consequently, even if the Islamic State were to be bombed into oblivion, France and the rest of the non-Muslim world will continue to be the target of Islamic supremacists. The West cannot defeat Islamic terrorism by attempting to conceptually delink it from true Islam. But still they try.

After the January 2015 jihadist attacks on the Paris offices of the magazine Charlie Hebdo that left 12 people dead, President Hollande declared:

“We must reject facile thinking and eschew exaggeration. Those who committed these terrorist acts, those terrorists, those fanatics, have nothing to do with the Muslim religion.”

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said: “We are in a war against terrorism. We are not in a war against religion, against a civilization.” Again, he said: “We are at war with terrorism, jihadism and radicalism. France is not at war against Islam and Muslims.”

At a June conference with more than 100 leaders of the French Muslim community, Valls denied there is any link between extremism and Islam. He also refused to raise the issue of radicalization because the topic was “too sensitive.” Instead, he said:

“Islam still provokes misunderstandings, prejudices and is rejected by some citizens. Yet Islam is here to stay in France. It is the second largest religious group in our country.

“We must say all of this is not Islam: The hate speech, anti-Semitism that hides behind anti-Zionism and hate for Israel, the self-proclaimed imams in our neighborhoods and our prisons who are promoting violence and terrorism.”

1348After the January 2015 jihadist attacks in Paris, France’s President François Hollande declared: “We must reject facile thinking and eschew exaggeration. Those who committed these terrorist acts, those terrorists, those fanatics, have nothing to do with the Muslim religion.”

France is home to around 6.5 million Muslims, or roughly 10% of the country’s total population of 66 million. Although most Muslims in France live peacefully, many are drawn to radical Islam. A CSA poll found that 22% of Muslims in the country consider themselves Muslim first and French second. Nearly one out of five (17%) Muslims in France believe that Sharia law should be fully applied in France, while 37% believe that parts of Sharia should be applied in the country.

France is also one of the largest European sources of so-called foreign fighters in Syria: More than 1,500 French Muslims have joined the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and many more are believed to be supporters of the group in France.

Since the Charlie Hebdo attacks, the French government has introduced a raft of new counter-terrorism measures — including sweeping surveillance powers to eavesdrop on the public — aimed at preventing further jihadist attacks.

French counter-terrorism operatives have foiled a number of jihadist plots, including a plan to attack a major navy base in Toulon, and an attempt to murder a Socialist MP in Paris.

As the latest attacks in Paris (as well as the failed attack on a high-speed train from Amsterdam to Paris in August) show, surveillance is not foolproof. Claude Moniquet, a former French intelligence operative, warns that European intelligence agencies are overwhelmed by the sheer number of people who may pose a threat. He writes:

“Some 6,000 Europeans are or were involved in the fighting in Syria (they went there, they were killed in action, they are still in IS camps, they are on their way there or their way back.)

“If you have 6,000 ‘active’ jihadists, this probably means that if you try to count those who were not identified, the logistics people who help them join up, their sympathizers and the most radical extremists who are not yet involved in violence but are on the verge of it, you have something between 10,000 and 20,000 ‘dangerous’ people in Europe.

“To carry out ‘normal’ surveillance on a suspect on a permanent basis, you need 20 to 30 agents and a dozen vehicles. And these are just the requirements for a ‘quiet’ target.

“If the suspect travels abroad, for instance, the figure could go up to 50 or 80 agents and necessitate co-operation between the services of various countries. Work it out: to keep watch on all the potential suspects, you’d need between 120,000 and 500,000 agents throughout Europe. Mission impossible!”

Meanwhile, French leaders consistently act in ways that undermine their stated goal of eradicating Islamic terror.

The French government has been one of the leading European proponents of the nuclear deal with Iran, the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism. Although Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, are responsible for deaths of scores of French citizens, Fabius wasted no time in rushing to Tehran in search of business opportunities for French companies. In July, Fabius proclaimed:

“We are two great independent countries, two great civilizations. It is true that in recent years, for reasons that everyone knows, links have loosened, but now thanks to the nuclear deal, things are going to change.”

Fabius also extended an invitation for Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, to visit France in November. This trip — which has been mired in controversy, not over terrorism or nuclear proliferation, but over Iran’s demand that no wine be served during a formal dinner at the Élysée Palace — was postponed indefinitely after the Paris attacks. Hollande’s advisors apparently concluded that this is not the right moment for a photo-op with Rouhani, a career terrorist.

French leaders have also been consistently antagonistic toward Israel, a country facing Islamic terror on a daily basis.

After Israel launched a military offensive aimed at stopping Islamic terror groups in the Gaza Strip from launching missiles into the Jewish state, France led international calls for Israel to halt the operation. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said:

“France calls for an immediate ceasefire… to ensure that every side starts talking to each other to avoid an escalation that would be tragic for this part of the world.”

More recently, France has been a leading European advocate of a European Union policy that now requires Israel to label products “originating in Israeli settlements beyond Israel’s 1967 borders.” The move is widely seen as part of an international campaign to delegitimize the State of Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed the move:

“The labelling of products of the Jewish state by the European Union brings back dark memories. Europe should be ashamed of itself. It took an immoral decision… this will not advance peace, it will certainly not advance truth and justice. It is wrong.”

France is also leading international diplomatic efforts to push for a United Nations resolution that would lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within a period of two years. The move effectively whitewashes Palestinian terror. Netanyahu responded:

“The only way to reach an agreement is through bilateral negotiations, and we will forcibly reject any attempts to force upon us international dictates.

“In the international proposals that have been suggested to us — which they are actually trying to force upon us — there is no real reference to Israel’s security needs or our other national interests.

“They are simply trying to push us into indefensible borders while completely ignoring what will happen on the other side of the border.”

Meanwhile, after more than a year as a member of the US-led coalition against the Islamic State, French officials waited until late September to begin striking targets in Syria. But they refused to destroy the headquarters of the Islamic State in Raqqa — where the Paris attacks were reportedly planned.

Back in France, critics of Islam are routinely harassed with strategic lawsuits that seek to censor, intimidate and silence them.

In a recent case, Sébastien Jallamion, a 43-year-old policeman from Lyon, was suspended from his job and fined 5,000 euros after he condemned the death of Frenchman Hervé Gourdel, who was beheaded by jihadists in Algeria in September 2014. Jallamion explained:

“According to the administrative decree that was sent to me today, I am accused of having created an anonymous Facebook page in September 2014, showing several ‘provocative’ images and commentaries, ‘discriminatory and injurious,’ of a ‘xenophobic or anti-Muslim’ nature. As an example, there was that portrait of the Calif al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic State, with a visor on his forehead. This publication was exhibited during my appearance before the discipline committee with the following accusation: ‘Are you not ashamed of stigmatizing an imam in this way?’ My lawyer can confirm this… It looks like a political punishment. I cannot see any other explanation.

“Our fundamental values, those for which many of our ancestors gave their life are deteriorating, and that it is time for us to become indignant over what our country is turning into. This is not France, land of Enlightenment that in its day shone over all of Europe and beyond. We must fight to preserve our values, it’s a matter of survival.”

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s Front National (FN) and one of the most popular politicians in the country, went on trial in October 2015 for comparing Muslim street prayers to the wartime occupation of France. At a campaign rally in Lyon in 2010, she said:

“I’m sorry, but for those who really like to talk about World War II, if we’re talking about an occupation, we could talk about the [street prayers], because that is clearly an occupation of territory.

“It is an occupation of sections of the territory, of neighborhoods in which religious law applies — it is an occupation. There are no tanks, there are no soldiers, but it is an occupation nevertheless, and it weighs on people.”

Le Pen said she was a victim of “judicial persecution” and added:

“It is a scandal that a political leader can be sued for expressing her beliefs. Those who denounce the illegal behavior of fundamentalists are more likely to be sued than the fundamentalists who behave illegally.”

Responding to the jihadist attacks in Paris, Le Pen said:

“France and the French are no longer safe. It is my duty to tell you. Urgent action is needed.

“France must finally identify her allies and her enemies. Her enemies are those countries that have friendly relationships with radical Islam, and also those countries that have an ambiguous attitude toward terrorist enterprises.

“Regardless of what the European Union says, it is essential that France regain permanent control over its borders.

“France has been rendered vulnerable; it must rearm, because for too long it has undergone a programmed collapse of its defensive capabilities in the face of predictable and growing threats. It must restore its military resources, police, gendarmerie, intelligence and customs. The State must be able to ensure again its vital mission of protecting the French.

“Finally, Islamist fundamentalism must be annihilated. France must ban Islamist organizations, close radical mosques and expel foreigners who preach hatred in our country as well as illegal migrants who have nothing to do here. As for dual nationals who are participating in these Islamist movements, they must be stripped of their French nationality and deported.”

In the aftermath of the attacks, Le Pen, who has long been critical of President Hollande’s politically correct counter-terrorism policies, is certain to rise in public opinion polls. This will increase the political pressure on the government to take decisive action against the jihadists.

Faced with similar pressure after the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, Hollande seemed reluctant to push too far, apparently fearful of the consequences of confronting the Muslim community in France. It remains to be seen whether the latest attacks in Paris, which some are describing as France’s September 11, mark a turning point.

Categories: Charlie Hedbo, Europe, Foreign policy, France, Freedom of speech, Hollande, Iran scam, Islamic culture, Islamic State, Islamic supremacy, Islamophobia, Israel, Multiculturalism, Palestinian heroes, Paris Muslim attack
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Hollande, Obama lack the troops and will for total war on ISIS. Mid East rulers are even more reluctant

November 16, 2015

Hollande, Obama lack the troops and will for total war on ISIS. Mid East rulers are even more reluctant, DEBKAfile, November 16, 2015

French_anti-terror_police_15.11.15French anti-terror police

When French President Francois Hollande declared war on ISIS and called the attack in Paris an “act of war,” he gave the terrorist organization’s leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi an unexpected boost. He upgraded the Muslim caliphate to a fully-fledged state against which France is now at war. US President Barack Obama was more cautious, declaring at the G-20 summit in Antalya that his country and France would fight together against terror, without specifying how.

Obama has problems of his own. The attempt to portray the Kurdish conquest of the city of Sinjar in northern Iraq as an important achievement in the war against ISIS dissipated quickly after Peshmerga troops were shown on TV moving into a city that was empty and lying in ruins, after it was abandoned by Islamic State forces. There was no battle there either.

Also, the US and Kurdish claims that they had severed the main road link between the ISIS capitals in Iraq and Syria, Mosul and Raqqa, proved hollow as ISIS had stopped using that route months ago after it became vulnerable to American air strikes.

If that wasn’t enough, Obama ran into an obstacle in Antalya.

The summit’s host, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is consumed by an overriding aversion to an independent Kurdish state rising on his country’s border, demanded a declaration that all Kurdish forces, including the Peshmerga, the PKK and the YPG, on which the US depends heavily for fighting the war against ISIS, be classified as terrorists and targeted by the West just like ISIS.

Therefore, before broaching any decisions about intensifying the war on the Islamist terrorists, Western and Muslim countries were already at odds on targets.

It therefore makes no sense for President Hollande to try and invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter under which an act of war against one member of the alliance is tantamount to a war on all. Furthermore, making this a NATO operation would rule out a priori any collaboration with Russia in the campaign against ISIS, despite their common objective.  Vladimir Putin was already vexed over the feeble Western response to the bombing of a Russian airliner killing 224 people, compared to the global outcry over the Paris outrage.

In their responses and commentaries on what to do after the Paris assault, Western politicians and security experts seemed to agree that putting their own boots on the ground for finally getting to grips with ISIS was not on the cards – there would just be “more of the same,’ as one American security expert put it.

Others advised assigning the ground battle to the Egyptian, Jordanian, Kurdish, Iraqi, Saudi and other Gulf Arab states.

Who were they kidding? None of those Arab governments or armies is capable or willing to declare full-scale war on the Islamic State. The Kurds alone have stepped into the breach and are confronting the Islamists face to face, but they have sought in vain for the weapons they need, which the US refuses to supply.

Egypt, for instance, even after an ISIS network was able to breach its security system in Sharm El-Sheikh to plant a bomb on the Russian airliner on Oct. 31, has held back from a major military assault on the strongholds of the Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, otherwise known as ISIS-Sinai. Egypt’s President Fattah Al-Sisi has not uttered a word on the Islamist threat since then.

French security and intelligence services demonstrated that they were unprepared for war on ISIS, and are pretty much in the same boat as other Western powers.

Since the outrage in Paris, French and Belgian security forces have conducted raid after raid to pick up Islamists, claiming to be rounding up the masterminds and confederates of the nine bombers and shooters who attacked Paris and murdered 132 people  In fact, they are acting more to calm a jittery public than in the expectation of achieving meaningful results in the war on terror. Till now, neither France nor any Western government knows exactly how many people were involved in the attack on Paris, or the numbers and locations of the Islamic Caliphate’s worldwide terror networks.

Categories: Arab nations, Combat troops, France, Hollande, Islamic State, NATO, Obama - Middle East, Obama and Islamic State, Obama and US military, Paris Muslim attack, Turkey
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That Other Side of Russia’s Syria Campaign…

November 15, 2015

That Other Side of Russia’s Syria Campaign…, Independent Strategy and Intelligence Group, November 14, 2015

(Obama’s America isn’t “winning the war” against the (non-Islamic) Islamic State. If Putin’s Russia isn’t either, who will — France? — DM)

True to form, Vlad is increasing operations and the size of his military’s footprint in Syria while lowering the bar of what constitutes “success.” In a recent piece (“Russian-Backed Offensive in Syria Begins to Stall-What Now?”) we discussed how out of all the fronts in the multi-pronged offensive the pro-regime forces are engaged in, only Aleppo has seen any gains – although those gains have been mixed. The SAA and IRGC had to divert resources from the Hama and Idlib fronts just to sustain the Aleppo offensive and achieve the gains that they did – all while sustaining heavy casualties in the process. The diverting of personnel and resources grounded the remaining forces in Hama and Idlib to halt. In some cases they’ve actually lost ground in the two fronts. The only thing that has kept them from driven out of those areas completely is the fact that al-Nusra sent a lot of their fighters to Aleppo, meaning the opposition factions don’t have the manpower to seize the initiative. And so they wait.

Russian-Backed Offensive in Syria Begins to Stall-What Now?
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9219

Has Assad’s New Offensive Changed Syria’s Front Lines?
http://www.syriadeeply.org/articles/2015/11/8733/assads-offensive-changed-syrias-front-lines/

puppet-master-248x300The Puppet Master Source: Derek Bacon (Getty Images)

As of this writing the Russian military has 18 artillery pieces and 9 combat helicopters deployed west of Tadmur with a Spetsnaz unit also operating in the area. Initially these forces were focused on supporting the Assad regime’s multi-pronged offensive in the Northwest due to the major threat the opposition forces posed. Since mid to late-OCT Vlad has conducted airstrikes in Halab Province as part of the effort to disrupt the Islamic State’s (IS) push on the Aleppo supply line. Airstrikes have also been conducted on Raqqa City, Dayr az-Zawr and areas just outside of Damascus. That said, the Russian military is struggling to satisfy the fire support requests of pro-regime forces. The Russian military has 32 combat aircraft, 16 combat helicopters (with more than half in Tadmur) and a Brigade-sized element of artillery.

We’re not surprised that Vlad’s IO guys are trumpeting the recapture of a couple villages and a derelict airbase (Kweires) in Aleppo Province – especially since opposition forces operating in the Ghab Valley were blocking regime advances just a few days ago. Then there’s Jaysh al-Fatah seizing control of several villages in Hama Province. They’ve been poised to push deeper into the areas Northwest of Hama City as of 10 NOV. Regarding Kweires, the recapturing of the base has more symbolic than tactical value. Vlad is hoping the symbolic victory will galvanize the SAA (we’re not holding our breath).

Syrian Regime, Allies Boast of Breaking Aleppo Air Base Siege
http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrian-government-forces-allies-boast-of-breaking-aleppo-air-base-siege-1447265552

Vlad’s increased sense of urgency is understandable considering the current state of the SAA, not to mention the mounting losses of the Iranian military force in-country. Since OCT the IRGC has lost four senior officer to include their most senior official – BG Hossein Hamedani (Reference “Pro-Assad Forces Experience Setbacks Despite Russian Military Intervention”). Even Hezbollah has lost several senior commanders, such as Hassan al-Haj. GEN Suleimani deployed an additional 2,000 IRGC-Qods Force operators to Syria this past summer in response to combat losses. Our sources have informed us that even Ayatollah Khameini has been getting worried about the increase in casualties from the ongoing offensive, which was the driving force behind his decision to deploy additional conventional IRGC personnel (armor, artillery etc). Thing is Khameini is busy trying to keep the Iranian public from learning that things aren’t going as well as advertised. Vlad is already prepping his own domestic audience for a prolonged Russian mission in Syria.

Pro-Assad Forces Experience Setbacks Despite Russian Military Intervention
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8778

The Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) is central to Vlad’s efforts to shape domestic and international opinion of the Syrian campaign – especially against the US. A great deal of the IO portion of this campaign involves messaging that highlights Russia’s humanitarian work (of course leaving out the part about indiscriminately targeting civilians) blames the US and its allies for the Syrian regional war and the rise of IS – even to the extent of claiming that Team Baghdadi is really an “American puppet” (FYI that messaging would work if the Obama administration wasn’t grossly incompetent). There’s actually been some inconsistencies with their messaging, because on one hand they’ll claim the US is “orchestrating” IS’ activities while running a parallel series of messaging highlighting American failures to combat the terror group – they may want to tighten up their shot group in that regards. Our in-country sources report the use of UAVs to distribute leaflets warning opposition fighters of their impending “annihilation” if they don’t flee the area. Another area GRU has been busy is employing the services of independent bloggers, sympathetic website admins and pro-Vlad organizations to distribute messaging. They’ve also been creating fake personas to convey IO themes and present counter-arguments to anything critical of Russia’s intervention, the Assad regime and Vlad himself. We’ve encountered a few of these personas on our Facebook and Twitter feed – they’re not hard to identify since they tried to bait us into divulging the identities of our sources (which isn’t going to happen).

In order to fully understand what’s going on, one must first understand Vlad himself. Our favorite KGB officer has gone his whole life trying to avoid the appearance of “weakness.” Also, his perception since the invasion of Crimea of being labeled a “pariah” by the West likely compels him to be aggressive on the international stage – especially when it comes to projecting power in the Middle East. His KGB service continues to drive his worldview. An example of this is time as a KGB officer in Dresden left a particular mark on his psyche as it was during the last days of the Soviet Union – which he refers to as “the most traumatic experience of his life.” So it should come as no surprise that he views himself as Russia’s lone “champion” that can stand up to defend against America. As such, he views Syria as an opportunity to replace US influence and more importantly, as a test of his reputation and Russia’s international prestige.

putin_Young-300x300A younger Vlad Source: PBS

He has a constant need for recognition and validation, which is why popularity polls are so important to him and why his cult of personality was crafted. Ever wondered why he’s always posing in photos lifting weights, doing the topless horse-riding thing or shooting things? That’s why. Interestingly enough, Vlad was his parents’ only surviving child, and was considered small, weak and sickly. Before that, his parents went through a great deal of hardships during the Siege of Leningrad during WWII. In other words, nothing came easy for him – which we respect. Still, he grew up being regarded as “special” – which resulted in the special snowflake growing up thinking that he was “superior” to everybody else (this is the one thing he has in common with President Obama). As for Vlad’s childhood, he grew up in a rat-infested one-room apartment. It certainly wasn’t the privileged childhood of traveling to exotic locales that his American counterpart got to enjoy. Since he was small, fights occurred regularly – which led to his current interest in martial arts. As for his signature unemotional facial expressions, those are a product of a well-cultivated effort to project strength and guard against unwelcome emotional responses, such as sadness or fear. Acts that he views are intended to undermine or humiliate him will result in his escalating a situation in response. He will only “back off” on his own terms – such as feeling a negative response might come from the public, for instance. For instance, his response to the 2011-2012 Moscow protests is a reflection of his sensitivity to internal dissent. His actions since that time – increased public outreach and propaganda efforts – are geared towards reinforcing the narrative he made of himself as being “indispensable.” The current fight against IS (and the West) is a big part of that plan.

putin_gun-300x225He sure doesn’t seem to like wearing shirts, now does he? Source: Associated Press

The architect of Vlad’s Middle East strategy is GRU Chief Igor Sergun, who was added to the EU’s sanctions list last year in response to his involvement of Russia’s Ukraine campaign. Specifically, he’s a member of Vlad’s “circle of trust” who holds the distinction of being one of the few people involved in the decision-making process leading up to the Crimea invasion receiving the “green light.” More recently, Sergun became a major advocate for Russia to increase its presence in the Middle East. He was the point-man involved in the negotiations that led to the establishment of the joint-intelligence coordination centers in Iraq and Syria (Check out “Russia Providing Lethal Aid to Syria, Iran and Establishment of Intel Centers in Iraq” and “Russia Poised to Increase Military Presence in Middle East in Response to Islamic State’s Strength” for additional info). Of note is that Sergun sees bilateral ties as a means of learning about Western intentions and countering them. The US is just “gaga” over this guy’s smile, but the turn is that he’s the leading figure behind the current IO campaign against the US. This guy has a plethora of experience, having joined the GRU in 1984. From 1989-1992 he served undercover under the guise of being a “military attache” in Stockholm and Tirana in 1997. As a side note, we hear that Sergun loves gardening to unwind and has a nice little dacha near Moscow (we’re working to obtain pics).

Russia’s Military Chief and deputy PM added to EU’s sanctions list
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4a3ff1cc-cf71-11e3-bec6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3rZBrt6dm

Ukrainian Rebel Commander Identified As Russian GRU Military Intelligence Colonel

Ukrainian Rebel Commander Identified As Russian GRU Military Intelligence Colonel

Russia Providing Lethal Aid to Syria, Iran and Establishment of Intel Centers in Iraq
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8532

Russia Poised to Increase Military Presence in Middle East in Response to Islamic State’s Strength
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8416

igor-sergun-300x273Igor Sergun: Likes to channel his “Inner-Martha Stewart” for relaxation. Source: The ISIS Study Group

The guy Sergun hand-picked to oversee intel and IO operations in Syria is COL Pavel Vladimirovich Petrunin. His duties involve the coordinating of intel-sharing with the SAA, IRGC and other pro-regime elements, such as Hezbollah. One of the things he’s been heavily involved with is overseeing the creation of IO messaging that emphasizes Russian/Syrian “successes” no matter how minor. According to our sources, he’s also been engaged in stream-lining offensive cyber-warfare operations with the Syrian Electronic Army in the targeting of opposition social media accounts and web sites – even targeting American and allied computer systems. One of the more interesting things we’ve learned is that he was the one who recommended spinning fratricide/civilian collateral damage incidents (which are a common occurrence on the Syrian front) as “IS attacks” as a means of masking SAA ineptitude. Just as important is the direct intel support that his subordinates provide to the Spetsnaz operators conducting CT-operations in the country against opposition leadership.

Apparent Russian raids kill 11 in Syria’s Idlib: monitor
http://news.yahoo.com/10-dead-syria-regime-raids-held-town-monitor-143407847.html

This fight isn’t going to end anytime soon and because of that, the GRU’s IO campaign is going to increase in importance. Keep in mind that Vlad feels that he’s “Russia” itself, and therefore views his failure as “Russia’s failure.” As we’ve stated previously, Vlad is now at the point where he has to escalate the Russian military mission in Syria so as to continue to project that image of “strength.” This becomes even more important after the Sinai Plane Bombing and Paris attacks. That said, the current situation on the ground in Syria and Vlad’s sensitivities to internal dissent presents several exploitable opportunities for the US to launch an IO campaign of its own – whether they’ll have the testicular fortitude to actually do it is another thing altogether…

Other Related Articles:

Russia Supports New Syrian Offensive and Begins Prepping For Russian Ground OPs
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8669

Amplifying Details on the Sinai Plane Bombing and the Egypt-Libya Nexus
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9230

Sinai Plane Crash Update
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9184

Islamic State Claims to Have Shot-Down Russian Plane in Sinai – But Did They?
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9157

US to cut 40,000 troops despite Russian and Chinese Belligerence and Rapidly Expanding Islamic State
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=7563

Categories: Islamic State, Obama and Islamic State, Putin, Russia, Russia - Middle East, Russia - Syrian war
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