Author Archive

Iran Looks to Seize Opportunity as Rivals Fall

December 13, 2017

Iran Looks to Seize Opportunity as Rivals Fall, Investigative Project on Terrorism, Yaakov Lappin, December 13, 2017

(Please see also, Congress ignores Trump’s deadline on Iran nuclear deal. — DM)

Today, the Shi’ite axis is on the move. Iran is the mother ship, and its most prominent agent is Hizballah, which has more firepower at its disposal than most NATO members. The axis has tens of thousands of Shi’ite militia members active across Iraq and Syria. And it is preparing to expand.

The threat to international security posed by Iran far outweighs the one ever posed by ISIS.

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As it approaches victory in Syria with the help of Russian air power, Iran and its terrorist axis members are turning their attention to Israel, and trying to ignite fresh Palestinian violence.

Israel’s Channel 10 News reported on Monday evening that Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force foreign operations unit, called the leaders Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, urging them to escalate attacks on Israel.

“There is huge Iranian pressure on the Palestinian factions to begin a maneuver,” the Channel 10 report said. “And [Hizballah chief Hassan] Nasrallah is calling for a third intifada.”

It is a clear sign that, as the ISIS caliphate is erased from the map, another radical Islamist force is gaining strength, this one many times more powerful. Radical Shi’ite forces backed by Iran are moving into the vacuum left behind by ISIS.

With confidence growing due to battlefield victories in Syria and Iraq, Iran and its radical proxies are seeking to take over the Palestinian arena as well, increasing terrorism against Israel.

In a speech delivered from Hizballah’s south Beirut stronghold of Dahiya on Monday, Hassan Nasrallah said his organization – which has evolved into a hybrid guerilla-terrorist army – and its allies would renew their focus on the Palestinians, following “victories elsewhere in the region,” Reuters reported.

Thousands of followers chanted “death to Israel,” as Nasrallah promised assistance to armed Palestinian factions and called on them to keep up their conflict with Israel.

These developments are the latest signs of a regional shift, which has left the Iranian axis as the dominant radical Islamist force in the region.

Only a few years ago, the Middle East was the battleground involving four rival blocs:

1. The Iranian-Shi’ite axis

2. The Salafi-jihadist ISIS camp

3. The Muslim Brotherhood bloc, and

4. The pragmatic Sunni coalition.

Today, only the pragmatic Sunnis and the Iranian-Shi’ite axis remain as major regional forces.

ISIS is reverting back to a decentralized terror network, while the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is decimated.

Saudi Arabia leads the moderate Sunni coalition of states, which are allies of the United States. This bloc views Israel as an ally too, out of a recognition that Iran is its real enemy, not the Jewish State.

Today, the Shi’ite axis is on the move. Iran is the mother ship, and its most prominent agent is Hizballah, which has more firepower at its disposal than most NATO members. The axis has tens of thousands of Shi’ite militia members active across Iraq and Syria. And it is preparing to expand.

In recent days, a powerful Iranian-backed Iraqi militia member visited southern Lebanon, where Hizballah provided him with a tour of the Israeli border. The visit signals Iran’s intention to direct its regional assets against Israel.

Missiles, a nuclear program, and a growing terrorist influence

The core of the Shi’ite axis is the Islamic Republic of Iran itself, whose regime is guided by Shi’ite Islamist doctrine.

“The Islamic regime in Iran wants to fully implement the Islamic Shari’a. It will be the instrument that triumphs over the enemies of Islam,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei said last month.

Iran’s military industries are flush with cash, and they are mass producing powerful weapons. These arms don’t just stay in Iran – many are exported to Iran’s dangerous clients across the Middle East. . These are the forces moving into the vacuum left by Islamic State’s demise.

“I welcome the recent and great victories of the Islamic Revolution front against the front of lies and the destruction of the accursed regime of ISIS,” IRGC commander Mohammed Al Jafari said recently.

Iran wants to establish a continuous land corridor linking it to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Such a corridor would enable Iran to move fighters and weapons from its border all the way to the Mediterranean coast. It would run parallel to the air corridor used by Iran to traffic weapons and fighters from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.

The Shi’ite axis monopolizes political and military power in Lebanon, via Hizballah, and uses its proxy forces to heavily influence Syria and Iraq.

In addition, it wields heavy influence in Yemen, where the IRGC supports the Ansar Allah radical Houthi group, which recently said it fired a cruise missile at a nuclear reactor in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The repeated use of surface-to-surface firepower by the Houthis against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia mimics tactics used by Hamas and Hizballah against Israel.

Terrorism under an Iranian nuclear umbrella?

The idea that the threat posed by the Iranian axis can be limited to the Middle East was recently disproven by Iran itself.

After European criticism of Iran’s ballistic missile program, officials threatened to increase Tehran’s ballistic missile ranges in order to reach Europe.

Israel, for its part, has vowed to stop the Iranian axis from taking over next-door Syria. A recent surge, according to media reports, of Israeli strikes on Iranian axis targets in Syria would seem to be evidence of Israel’s determination to challenge Iranian plans. Earlier this month, the strikes reportedly targeted an Iranian military base under construction south of Damascus, and the CERS weapons development and production site on the outskirts of the Syrian capital.

Yet the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, dormant for now, remains the elephant in the room.

A powerful Shi’ite axis operating under an Iranian nuclear umbrella would pose a new level of threat to global security. Iranian-run terrorist networks and armed forces could operate with impunity if the Iranians reactivate their nuclear sites in the future, which they intend to do.

The threat to international security posed by Iran far outweighs the one ever posed by ISIS.

Islamic Extremism: Who is Purest of Them All?

December 13, 2017

Islamic Extremism: Who is Purest of Them All? Gatestone InstituteGiulio Meotti, December 13, 2017

In Europe, Islamic radicalism has caused the largest emigration of Jews since the Holocaust (40,000 Jews have left France just in the last decade). Many Europeans might sentimentally think of the hundreds of thousands of Muslims pouring into Europe as “the new Jews” — even though their culture is virtually opposite to the Jews’ — but perhaps the Europeans should be aware that they have now forced the Jews to flee twice in the modern era.

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In the twentieth century, targets were churches and synagogues; today, they are churches, synagogues, mosques, temples — wherever there is a faith, even a Muslim one, that these Islamic fundamentalists want to “purify”.

Radical Islam has declared war on the pillars of the West: modernity, science, rationalism, tolerance, equality under the law, freedom of expression and the dignity of the individual, to name only a few. Many of these ideas are currently under threat in Western Europe.

Many Europeans might sentimentally think of the hundreds of thousands of Muslims pouring into Europe as “the new Jews” – even though their culture is virtually opposite to the Jews’ — but perhaps the Europeans should be aware that they have now forced the Jews to flee twice in the modern era.

The number of victims in the jihadist attack at a Sufi Mosque in Egypt has risen to 305 and is destined to rise even more. Inside this number there is another one, even more tragic: the 27 children murdered by Islamic terrorists. It has been not only one of the world’s most sickening terror attacks since 9/11. It was, in intent, a genocidal attack aimed to erase a religion and a community from the face of earth.

The murder of children is the most ruthless face of the war that radical Islam has declared: Palestinian children used as human shields by HamasIsraeli children butchered in buses and cars, Iraqi children massacred by smiling terrorists with candy, French children brought as recruits to RaqqaIranian children sent by the Ayatollah Khomeini to Iranian camps, Christian children wiped out by the Taliban in Pakistan, Western children murdered in BarcelonaManchester and Nice, and the children of Beslan forced to drink their own urine before being killed. How much longer will we have to update the ferocity of radical Islam?

Some Muslim writers have compared the savagery of extremist Muslims to that of the Nazis. In his novel “Le village de l’Allemande“, the Muslim Algerian writer Boualem Sansal compared the similarities: “Single party, militarization, propaganda, falsification of history, xenophobia, affirmation of a plot hatched by Israel and the United States, etc.” According to another Muslim dissident, Naser Khader, “the radical Muslims are the Nazis of Islam”.

Naser Khader, a Muslim dissident who is a Danish Member of Parliament, says “the radical Muslims are the Nazis of Islam”. (Image source: Jyske Bank TV video screenshot)

The massacre at the Sufi mosque in Egypt is reminiscent of the worst Nazi massacre France, in Oradour-sur-Glane, where German troops executed 642 people. Women and children were taken to the church, which was then set on fire. In the twentieth century, the targets were churches and synagogues; today, they are churches, synagogues, mosques, temples — wherever there is a faith, even a Muslim one, that these Islamic fundamentalists want to “purify”.

Physical violence is how the Nazis were able to “cleanse” most of Europe of the Jews — by shooting, terrorizing, gassing and pressuring others to flee. The same strategy, for Christians and other minorities as well, is being pursued by the Islamists. By butchering 350 people, they want to terrify Christians and Sufis and erase them from Sinai. Random lynchings and other attacks were able to pressure Jews into abandoning North Africa and the Middle East, almost in its entirety. In Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and elsewhere, pogroms erupted against the Jewish communities; nearly a million Jews fled.

Radical Islam is building, under our noses, a Brave New World of mass-murder and religious submission. Its adherents seem to want to change individuals in the name of a deadly totalitarian ideology based on a specific interpretation of Islam.

Just as Nazis led a war of extermination against Jews, Slavs, Romanis, Jehovah’s Witnesses, leftists, Catholic clergy, Freemasons, gays and others, extremist Muslims have declared war on Jews, Christians, Atheists, Yazidis, minorities such as Alawites, Kurds, Baha’is, Sufis and Druze, and even many of their own Muslims, branded as “apostates”. At the same time, radical Islam has declared war on the pillars of the West: modernity, science, rationalism, tolerance, equality under the law, freedom of expression and the dignity of the individual, to name only a few. Many of these ideas are currently under threat in Western Europe.

Recently in Iraq, a new mass grave was found, filled with Yazidi children. The day before that, a mosque in Nigeria was attacked. It is almost impossible to make a detailed account of the jihadist massacres that take place each week. Ten years ago, Islamic terrorists attacked Yazidi villages in Iraq: 500 people were murdered; entire communities were wiped out. Recently, 500 more people were slaughtered in a Somali terror attack.

In Europe, Jewish synagogues, if they were not protected by police and soldiers, would meet the same fate. That is what came to pass with Christians in the genocide of the Armenians in Turkey (1914-1923), the murder and expulsion of its Pontic Greeks (1915-1922) , the continuing attacks on Christian Copts in Egypt, as well as with Iraqi Christian churches in Nineveh and throughout the Middle East. In Toulouse, France, Jewish children were gunned down just for being Jews for the first time since World War II.

These murderers are working to build a pan-Islamic dictatorship that sucks in the spilled blood of every culture and faith — including their own. Islamic extremists have effectively been able to redraw the map of the Middle East by committing genocide against so many.

In Europe, Islamic radicalism has caused the largest emigration of Jews since the Holocaust (40,000 Jews have left France just in the last decade). Many Europeans might sentimentally think of the hundreds of thousands of Muslims pouring into Europe as “the new Jews” — even though their culture is virtually opposite to the Jews’ — but perhaps the Europeans should be aware that they have now forced the Jews to flee twice in the modern era.

The level of persecution against Christians is “worse than at any time in history,” according to the European-based Aid to the Church in Need. It also predicts that if the decline of its religion continues at the same rate as in the past two years, Christianity in Iraq could be wiped out as early as 2020. Islamists are erasing civilizations. Is Europe’s next?

Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.

POLLAK: Eight Reasons This Year’s Hanukkah Is the Best in a Long Time

December 13, 2017

POLLAK: Eight Reasons This Year’s Hanukkah Is the Best in a Long Time, BreitbartJoel B. Pollak, December 12, 2017

Jack Guez / Getty

This year’s Jewish holiday of Hanukkah — which starts at sundown on Tuesday, Dec. 12 and continues for eight days and nights through sundown on Wednesday, Dec. 20 — may be the best in recent memory.

The holiday commemorates the successful revolt by the Jews of ancient Israel against the Seleucid Greeks in the second century B.C., and the re-dedication of the Holy Temple in Jerusalem, where holy oil that should have lasted for one day miraculously burned for eight.

Jews observe the holiday by lighting an eight-branch candelabra, often called a menorah, adding one candle each night. (In recent years, the Chabad organization has popularized public menorah-lightings.) In addition, people exchange gifts; play with a top called a dreidel; and eat fried delicacies, such as potato pancakes (latkes) or jelly doughnuts (sufganiot). Here is why this year’s Hanukkah (or Chanukah) is among the best ever.

1. Jerusalem. President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital made clear that Israeli sovereignty in the city, the center of the Jewish faith, is permanent. Of course, Israel had made Jerusalem its capital through hard work and military sacrifice. But like the original Hanukkah, the symbolic part of the victory is just as important. It was a decision that took great courage, and will ultimately make peace easier, not harder, to achieve.

2. Obama is out of office. Last year, just before Hanukkah, a lame-duck President Barack Obama stabbed Israel in the back at the United Nations Security Council by abstaining from, rather than vetoing, a resolution that declared Israel’s presence in the Old City of Jerusalem — where Jews have lived for millennia — a “a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to … a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.” Good riddance.

3. John Kerry is gone, too. After Obama’s “parting shot” at Israel, outgoing Secretary of State John Kerry added insult to injury by delivering an address at the State Department in which he attacked the Israeli government and blamed Israel for the impasse in negotiations with Palestinians. The speech was staged in the middle of Hanukkah. It was largely ignored by Israelis but showed the depth of anti-Israel feeling at the top of the Obama administration.

4. New ties with the Arab world. In the past year, with President Trump in office, parts of the Arab world have been reaching out to Israel to build relations as the threat of a potentially nuclear-armed Iran looms over the region. In May, Air Force One completed the first-known flight directly from Saudi Arabia to Israel, a hopeful sign that the Muslim world might finally be reconciling itself to the existence of a small Jewish democracy in the Middle East.

5. Cool Jews. Jews continue to do interesting and important things in the world. There has never been a more Jewish First Family, with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump proudly observing their faith and raising their children in a Jewish home. There is Alex Bregman, the Houston Astros player who became the first Jew to hit a walk-off hit in the World Series. We have our bad apples, like every group, but there is more to be proud of than ever.

6. Best White House Hanukkah party. Invitations to the party were notoriously difficult to find — but you can watch the proceedings on C-SPAN. What was particularly special was the fact that the ceremony stuck to the religious rules. Rabbi Meir Soloveitchik did not allow the recitations of the actual Hanukkah blessings, which would have been premature. Instead, he found a dignified substitute: the blessing upon meeting a head of state.

7. Introspection. Josh Block, a thoughtful liberal Democrat, has just published one of the most important essays on Jewish communal life in the last several years. He warns that the recent preoccupation with “social justice” by many Jewish institutions is undermining the community’s foundations by ignoring the continuity of Jewish life. It is a conservative critique that has finally entered the Jewish mainstream, meaning there is hope to turn things around.

8. Optimism. You might not know it, from the way the media tie themselves in knots over everything Trump does (or tweets), but the world is doing rather well. The U.S. economy is booming, and the global economy is looking good. The so-called “Islamic State” has been smashed. Technology is racing ahead, from blockchain to electric trucks. There are still big challenges — and new will to tackle them. That’s “good for the Jews,” and for everyone.

On Jerusalem, a response divorced from reality

December 13, 2017

On Jerusalem, a response divorced from reality, Times of IsraelTzachi Hanegbi, December 13, 2017

Much of the world has lambasted President Trump’s recognition that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. Recognizing reality is in the interest of peace. Continual denial of reality, and resorting to violence anytime somebody says something you’d prefer they hadn’t is a recipe for perpetual conflict.

There remains only one viable path forward to achieving peace. President Abbas claims he is a man of peace. Saying you are a man of peace is easy, actually being one requires courage. If he is serious, he can prove it now by taking two actions that are entirely within his power: 1. End his constant incitement to violence against Jews in Israel and around the world; and 2. Accept Prime Minister Netanyahu’s repeated offers to negotiate anytime, anywhere without preconditions.

The time for empty slogans, and outright rejection of reality has long since passed. If President Abbas truly wants peace and a better future for his people, the time for action is now.

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Last week, President Donald Trump made an historic announcement. It was consistent with his powers as the President of the United States and in line with the Jerusalem Embassy Act passed overwhelmingly by the United States Congress 22 years ago.

Based on the reactions in the press, by European leaders and across the Muslim world, you would think he had made a broad pronouncement granting Israel dominion over the entire Middle East and declaring the Palestinians devoid of any rights. He did no such thing.

President Trump made a brave decision to keep his word and recognize the simple and indisputable reality that Jerusalem is the capital of the State of Israel. I have served in the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, since 1988. I go to work every day in Jerusalem. Across the street from the Knesset is the rime Minister’s office and just up the road is the Supreme Court. When foreign heads of state meet with the Prime Minister they do so in Jerusalem, and when Anwar Sadat came to make peace he delivered his historic address in Jerusalem.

President Trump made clear he was taking no position on the final borders or status of Jerusalem or any other issue of contention between Israel and the Palestinians. He stated that he is determined to reach a peaceful resolution to the conflict in a manner acceptable to both Israel and the Palestinians. In his words, “[w]e are not taking a position on any final status issues, including the specific boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem or the resolution of contested borders. Those questions are up to the parties involved… We want an agreement that is a great deal for the Israelis and a great deal for the Palestinians”.

In response, President Abbas is boycotting Vice President Pence during his visit to Israel and has said the United States has forever abrogated its role as an honest broker. He has called for “days of rage” and endless protests and riots. President Erdogan of Turkey has threatened to cut diplomatic ties with Israel over a purely American decision. In Sweden, a synagogue was firebombed.

There are protests from London to Malaysia. How is it that such a measured announcement, designed to reflect reality, and painstakingly crafted to make clear that the President was not prejudicing the rights of the Palestinians, resulted in such an unhinged response around the world? The President said that the parties themselves should make the decisions that will determine their own future and wants a “great deal for the Palestinians”. Why does being told they have agency over their own future offend the Palestinians or their supporters?

The answer, unfortunately, is that the response has very little to do with what the President actually said and the real world impact of his announcement. The response makes clear that those protesting are not concerned that recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel makes peace harder to attain. They are angry because it may make it easier.

For those who reject the rights of the Jewish people to a state within any borders, any pronouncement that could bring reconciliation to the truth is a threat. Anyone recognizing the fact that the Jewish people have a three thousand year connection to Jerusalem is a threat to those making the absurd claim that Jews are invaders and colonists in our own land.

Those chanting “Khaybar, Khaybar ya yahud” and burning Israeli and American flags are not interested in promoting co-existence. They have no interest in building a better life for the Palestinians, and certainly not for Israelis.

President Trump recognizes the meaning of Jerusalem to the Jewish people. He appreciates that central to our return home was our return to the only capital we have ever known or wanted anywhere in the world. That makes his statement anathema to anti-Semites and anti-Zionists around the world. Make no mistake, most of those protesting are doing so because of their hatred of Jews and Israel, not out of love for the Palestinians or concern for a brighter future.

David Ben Gurion famously said “No city in the world, not even Athens or Rome, ever played as great a role in the life of a nation for so long a time, as Jerusalem has done in the life of the Jewish people”. This statement is still true today.

The truth will never be an impediment to peace. Deluding oneself into believing that a Temple never stood where it once stood, or that the Israeli government does not stand where it now stands is the true impediment to peace.

Much of the world has lambasted President Trump’s recognition that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. Recognizing reality is in the interest of peace. Continual denial of reality, and resorting to violence anytime somebody says something you’d prefer they hadn’t is a recipe for perpetual conflict.

There remains only one viable path forward to achieving peace. President Abbas claims he is a man of peace. Saying you are a man of peace is easy, actually being one requires courage. If he is serious, he can prove it now by taking two actions that are entirely within his power: 1. End his constant incitement to violence against Jews in Israel and around the world; and 2. Accept Prime Minister Netanyahu’s repeated offers to negotiate anytime, anywhere without preconditions.

The time for empty slogans, and outright rejection of reality has long since passed. If President Abbas truly wants peace and a better future for his people, the time for action is now.

Tzachi Hanegbi is Minister for Regional Cooperation

Europe would not last a week if it had to face what Israel does

December 13, 2017

Europe would not last a week if it had to face what Israel does, Israel National News, Giulio Meotti, December 13, 2017

[T]he attacks, the wars, the threats, the tension and the death drawings that the world prepares for the small Jewish state with whose disappearance it is obsessed. And I thought, looking and looking at those images, that no European country, not one, would survive a week of this instead of Israel.

The very existence of Israel goes against all the rules. It is a classical example of nonsense. Because Israel is a miracle, the conscience of the world, the Western frontier located on the Eastern front. 

It is a symbol of our civilization as it was in its highest moments. 

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I was watching the videos from Ramallah and elsewhere of the Palestinian riots against the blessed American decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. All those Israeli policemen and soldiers engaged in dispelling the riots and violence without inflicting losses but managing to contain the damage.

They are not shaheeds, they care about human life, their own and the ones of the people they must confront in the streets.

These young Israelis doing such a tragic job are the same age as I am, at night they return to their wives and children, mothers and fathers. They are not shaheeds, they care about human life, their own and the ones of the people they must confront in the streets. They are the face of a state dealing with this drama for the last 70 years.

Then I thought of all the blackmail, the attacks, the wars, the threats, the tension and the death drawings that the world prepares for the small Jewish state with whose disappearance it is obsessed. And I thought, looking and looking at those images, that no European country, not one, would survive a week of this instead of Israel.

Most of commentators today worry about the “consequences” of the just and historical American recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. But if the fear of violence had dictated its actions, Israel would not have been born in 1948 and the Jews after Auschwitz would have been found in a deli of Brooklyn rather than on the beaches of Tel Aviv.

In its 70 years of existence, Israel has lost 23,447 soldiers and 2,495 civilians, it survived 12 wars and thousands of missiles, while coexisting with the specter of a chemical and nuclear war.

The very existence of Israel goes against all the rules. It is a classical example of nonsense. Because Israel is a miracle, the conscience of the world, the Western frontier located on the Eastern front.

It is a symbol of our civilization as it was in its highest moments.

 

I react to the latest attack in NYC near Times Square this morning 12.11.2017

December 12, 2017

I react to the latest attack in NYC near Times Square this morning 12.11.2017, Islamic Forum For Democracy via YouTube

“Eurosion”: Muslim Majority in Thirty Years?

December 12, 2017

“Eurosion”: Muslim Majority in Thirty Years? Gatestone Institute, Giulio Meotti, December 12, 2017

Even if all current 28 EU members, plus Norway and Switzerland, closed their borders to migrants, the Islamic population will continue to exponentiate…. Today, it is an increase of six million in seven years. And tomorrow?

What will happen in major European cities, where the Muslim communities are currently based? Will London, Marseille, Stockholm, Brussels, Amsterdam, Antwerp and Birmingham all have Muslim majorities?

Under the “medium” and “high” projections in Pew’s scenarios, how can Europe preserve all its most precious gifts — freedom of expression, separation of church and state, freedom of conscience, rule of law and equality between men and women?

One of the most debated arguments about Muslims in Europe is the “Eurabia” claim: that high birth rates and immigration will make Muslims the majority on the continent within a few decades. For years, most of the media and analysts dismissed the claim as alarmist and racist. “Dispelling the myth of Eurabia“, sniffed a major Newsweek cover.

Not many had the courage to sound an alarm. The great Arabist scholar, Bernard Lewis, sent out a warning more than a decade ago that Europe would turn Muslim by the end of this century, and dissolve into “part of the Arab West, the Maghreb”. The late scholar Fouad Ajami also cautioned that “Europe is host to a war between order and its enemies, fueled by demography”; and the Italian writer Oriana Fallaci imagined a continent with “the minarets in place of the bell-towers, with the burka in place of the mini-skirt”. Mark Steyn explained that “the future belongs to Islam” with an “enfeebled” West in a “semi Islamified Europe”.

Ten years later, since Europe opened its borders to a massive wave of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East, the demographers reviewed their assessments.

New projections by the Washington-based Pew Research Center should be on the table of every European official and politician. The projections foretell that if the current wave of immigrants persists, in thirty years Europe’s Muslim population will triple. If high migration continues, the Muslim share of Germany’s population, could grow from 6.1% in 2016 to 19.7% by 2050. Even if all current 28 EU members, plus Norway and Switzerland, closed their borders to migrants, the Islamic population will continue to exponentiate. According to Pew’s data, Muslims made up 4.9% of Europe’s population in 2016, with 25.8 million people across 30 countries, up from 19.5 million people in 2010. Today it is an increase of six million in seven years. And tomorrow?

Pew’s researchers looked at three scenarios: “zero migration” between 2016 and 2050; “medium migration”, in which the flow of refugees stops but people continue to migrate for other reasons; and “high migration”, in which the flow of migrants between 2014 and 2016 continues with the same religious composition.

In the medium migration scenario – considered by Pew “the most likely” – Sweden would have the biggest share of the new population at 20.5%. The UK’s share would rise from 6.3% in 2016 to 16.7%. There will be similar percentages everywhere, from Belgium (15%) to France (17.4%). If high migration continues until 2050, Sweden’s Muslim share will grow to 30.6%, Finland’s to 15%, Norway’s to 17%, France’s to 18%, Belgium’s to 18.2% and Austria’s to 19.9%.

Pew’s dramatic scenarios do not tell the whole story, however. What will happen in major European cities, where the Muslim communities are currently based? Will London, Marseille, Stockholm, Brussels, Amsterdam, Berlin and Birmingham all have Muslim majorities?

What will happen in major European cities, where the Muslim communities are currently based? Will London, Marseille, Stockholm, Brussels, Amsterdam, Berlin and Birmingham all have Muslim majorities? (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

The French demographer Jean-Claude Chesnais in his book “Le Crépuscule de l’Occident” predicted an opulent but sterile continent, one in which population is characterized by death, not birth. According to the national statistics agency Istat, fewer than 474,000 births were registered in Italy last year, down 12,000 from the year before, with an even bigger drop from the 577,000 born in 2008. Italy has “lost” 100.000 births in ten years. The loss has been called “the great Eurosion“. The old continent is “frailing”.

Moreover, the fastest-breeding demographic group in Europe is also the most resistant to the pieties of a secularized liberal European democracy, which is seen as a sign of moral abdication from the true “path” or “way”.

Under the “medium” and “high” projections in Pew’s scenarios, how can Europe preserve all its most precious gifts: freedom of expression, separation of church and state, freedom of conscience, rule of law and equality between men and women?

According to the French author Eric Zemmour:

“If tomorrow there were 20, 30 million French Muslims determined to veil their wives and to apply the laws of Sharia, we could only preserve the minimal rules of secularism by dictatorship. That’s what Atatürk, Bourguiba or even Nasser understood in their day”.

Will Europe retreat into a non-democratic regime to preserve its own freedoms or will it lose these freedoms under the rise of this large Islamic communities? Considering what Europe witnessed in the last couple of years under terrorism and multiculturalism, what will happen in the next thirty years?

Jean-Claude Chesnais rightly called this shift a “crépuscule”, a twilight. We are living through the self-extinction of the European societies of the Enlightenment. It has shaped the humanitarian age we live in – but may not any more.

Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.