WarSclerotic

There Is No Iran Deal: West, Iran Differ Sharply over Terms

by Joel B. Pollak

20 Jul 2015

via There Is No Iran Deal: West, Iran Differ Sharply over Terms – Breitbart.

The United Nations Security Council voted 15-0 on Monday to pass Resolution 2231, which endorses the Iran nuclear deal–“the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] signed in Vienna by the five permanent members of the Council, plus Germany, the European Union and Iran.” However, there are already sharp disagreements between Iran and the rest of the world as to what that deal actually means.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry claims, for example, that the deal does not actually cover its ballistic missile program, as advertised. Restrictions on ballistic missiles are to be ended after eight years, according to the JCPOA. However, Iran says, according to the Times of Israel, that the UN Security C0uncil resolution and the deal do not apply to its own missiles because they “have not been conceived to carry nuclear weapons.”

Similarly, there is confusion as to whether the deal prevents Iran from accelerating its nuclear program after the deal expires, or whether that is just an option. Such (voluntary) restrictions would have to be approved under the Additional Protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which the Iranian parliament is supposed to ratify, but there is no deadline for it to do so; it could wait until deal expires, in theory.

Alan Dershowitz, who has worked on UN resolutions on the Middle East, suggests there may not have been a “meeting of the minds” on the Iran deal at all: “Is it a postponement for an uncertain number of years — 8, 10, 13, 14, 15 — of Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon? Or is it an assurance that ‘Iran will not be able to develop a nuclear weapon?’”

These differences go far beyond the usual disputes over the precise interpretations of terms in an agreement. There seems to be a wide gulf between Iran and the West about what, in fact, is covered by the agreement. Other areas of confusion in the deal include access for international inspectors to Iranian military sites, which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps apparently is refusing to accept or allow.

It will be hard to enforce a deal that is not, in fact, an agreement.

Obama tells Congress to take note after UN okays Iran deal

President says pact proves diplomacy best option; Iranian envoy accuses Israel of fearing peace; Jerusalem ambassador says passage marks ‘sad day’

By Marissa Newman and AFP July 20, 2015, 7:27 pm

via Obama tells Congress to take note after UN okays Iran deal | The Times of Israel.

Iran’s envoy to the UN Gholamali Khoshroo speaks during a Security Council meeting after a vote on the Iran resolution at UN headquarters in New York, July 20, 2015. (AFP/Jewel Samad)

S President Barack Obama on Monday hailed the passage of a UN Security Council resolution backing his nuclear deal with Iran, saying he expected a skeptical Congress to follow suit.

At the same time, Iran’s envoy to the United Nations derided Israel for spreading “Iranophobia,” and treating peace “as an existential threat.” And Jerusalem’s ambassador slammed the “tragedy” of the unanimous Security Council approval of the agreement, which paves the way to lifting long-standing sanctions on Iran.

Obama said he hoped the passage earlier Monday would “send a clear message that the overwhelming number of countries” recognize that diplomacy is “by far our strongest approach to ensuring that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.

“There is broad international consensus around this issue,” Obama added. “My working assumption is that Congress will pay attention to that broad basic consensus.”

The UN Security Council earlier unanimously adopted a resolution endorsing the historic deal on Iran’s nuclear program and cleared a path to lift the sanctions crippling its economy.

The 15-0 approval of the deal clears a hurdle for the landmark pact, which will now go before the US Congress where it may face an uphill battle for confirmation.

Among those in the session were Iranian ambassador Gholamali Khoshroo, who condemned Israeli efforts to torpedo the deal.

The “Israeli regime, following its general policy to stoke tension in the region, has done whatever is in its power to sabotage and defeat any effort towards resolving the standoff over Iran’s nuclear energy program,” he said, according to a transcript by the Tasnim News Agency. “In so doing, it proves once more that it doesn’t see peace in our region in its interest and considers peace as an existential threat to itself.”

Jerusalem has tried to spread “Iranophobia” in both the Middle East and the world, “to serve this nefarious purpose,” the Iranian envoy continued.

“Thus, we alert our friends and neighbors not to fall into their trap,” he added.

While praising the deal, Khoshroo criticized the international sanctions on Iran which, he claimed, were “grounded on nothing but baseless and pure speculation and hearsay.” He said Iran will not quickly forget the world’s past relations with the Islamic Republic.

“In engaging with E3/EU+3, the Iranian people have had the foresight to move forward, without losing sight of the past,” he said, referring to the six world powers that negotiated the agreement.

“Therefore, while we hope that the Security Council will open a new chapter in its relations with Iran, we cannot accept or forget its previous treatment of Iran, starting from its inaction in the face of Saddam’s aggression and the use of chemical weapons to its more recent treatment of the Iranian peaceful nuclear program.”

Tehran “is resolute in fulfilling its obligations,” he stated, and “we expect that our counterparts remain also faithful to theirs.”

‘A very sad day’

Speaking in the UN — although not in the Security Council — Israeli envoy Ron Prosor lamented the international support for the Iran deal.

“Today’s a very sad day. Not only for Israel, but for the entire world, even if at this moment the international community refuses to see the tragedy,” he said. “It’s a sad day, because the international community is taking its first steps to lift sanctions on Iran without waiting to see if it complies with even one obligation.”

The UN just “awarded a great prize to the most dangerous country in the world,” Prosor said of the resolution.

“In future years, the consequences of this mistake will become clear to all. But for Israel, tomorrow is already too late,” Prosor continued.

The UN vote came shortly after the European Union approved the nuclear deal, okaying the pact between the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany and Iran, which lifts punishing economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for temporary curbs on nuclear activity. Ambassadors from the so-called P5+1 touted the deal in a Security Council debate following the vote.

On condition that Iran respects the agreement to the letter, seven UN resolutions — passed since 2006 to sanction Iran — will be gradually terminated, according to the text of the deal, reached in Vienna last week.

Senior defense source: IDF preparing for possible covert Iranian nuclear production

via Senior defense source: IDF preparing for possible covert Iranian nuclear production – Arab-Israeli Conflict – Jerusalem Post.

A SATELLITE view of the Fordow nuclear plant. The plant will not be shut down under the Vienna agreement, but no enrichment will be allowed there.

Source says coming years represent opportunity to adapt IDF to future challenges; says military needs between 61 to 64 billion shekels a year to do this.

The IDF is seeking government commitment to a multi-year defense spending plan – a commitment that has been absent for the past several years – as it prepares to deal with the possibility of a covert Iranian attempt to break through to nuclear weapons production, a senior defense source said on Sunday.

The source said the IDF needs to assume that its most severe “reference scenarios” regarding Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and ISIS will come true, in order to correctly use the coming years to reshape the military, improve training, and make cost cutting reforms that include the shedding of 100,000 reservists and 5000 career soldiers.

The multi-year budget commitment from the government –  absent for the past several years – will be necessary to reshape the military and improve training to meet those challenges while at the same time, implementing cutting reforms that include the shedding of 100,000 reservists and 5000 career soldiers.

Other proposed changes include military restructuring to create specialized war fighting and border security divisions that do not overlap one another.

The source spoke ahead of the publication of the findings of the Locker Commission, due on Tuesday, on the defense budget. The commission is expected to call on the IDF to reduce itself in size by a third – a recommendation defense sources described as being completely out of tune with Israel’s security environment.

Decision-makers weighing the future defense budget will have to take stock of the current and future threats to Israel, the risk management system they wish to employ, and the national strategy to deal with threats. They will have to define “the results they want from the military,” the source said.

Looking at the latest threat assessments, the source said, “I’m not saying this is what will happen, but we are preparing for a scenario in which, Iran after the agreement, moves into covert nuclear production.”

He added that no one within the Israeli defense establishment thinks Iran has given up on its vision of reaching a nuclear capability in the future.

“The IDF’s role, and test, is based on capabilities. The working assumption is that they [the Iranians] will try in the near future…to go for a basic [nuclear] capability. The assumption is that there will be an Iranian pattern of action through the covert [nuclear] channel. I think it’s right to assume this severe assumption, in light of our familiarity with the Iranians,” the source stated.

In addition, “there’s no doubt that lifting the sanctions will enable Iran to activate its influence in the region in a discernible and significant manner, more so than today,” he said.

Iran is currently spending 4 – 5 billion dollars on its proxies and clients. “The restraint for Iranian activities on the other side of our borders comes from economic limitations. There’s no doubt that lifting the sanctions will lead to an increase in Iranian influence and terrorism,” the source said.

Despite international bans on Iranian arms trafficking, Tehran “does this all the time, and they will continue to do it in the future in Syria, Lebanon, and to other elements,” he added.

“Iran will be a central challenge for the IDF during this time. It will be a mission for Military Intelligence to [continue] monitoring, intelligence, and [provide] alerts. The intelligence will focus on Iranian [nuclear] efforts and [the regional] influence. Iran will continue to be the IDF’s first mission, as it has been defined since 2006,” he said.

This, alongside the collapse of the old order in the Middle East, the “galloping forward” of ISIS in Syria, Sinai, and Gaza, and traditional hybrid threats in the form of Hezbollah and Hamas, form the basis of the Gideon plan.

Military planners, led by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot (who was deputy chief of staff in his previous role), have spent four years drawing up the Gideon plan.

It calls for significantly increasing the power of wartime multi-arena combat divisions, restructuring the army to create specialized brigades and battalions that focus exclusively on border security and leave the war fighting to the divisions, and improving weapons and and training.

“Hezbollah is the most significant enemy in our first circle,” the source said, using a term to refer to the countries that border Israel.

“Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets, although it is in the most difficult crisis point since its founding. It lost 1300 fighters in Syria, and sustained over 5000 injuries,” he said. The Shi’ite organization finds itself facing more than “two million Sunnis in Lebanon, due to the arrival of 1.6 million [Syrian] Sunnis.” ISIS has become Hezbollah’s “central enemy,” he added.

In both the West Bank and Gaza, Hamas is a central enemy of Israel, the source added. “We are trying to limit it in both arenas.” “Our required achievement is to be able to go war, while preventing any ground-based or aerial territorial achievements for our enemies, and minimizing the enemy’s achievement in the realm of projectile fire on Israel,” he said.

Israel’s ability to launch strikes on its enemies’ rocket and missile bases has grown “100 fold” in the past nine years, he added. Israel’s intelligence infiltration of Hezbollah is very high, according to the source. All of these capabilities “cost money,” he added.

“I don’t know any enemy that can stand up to our battalion or brigade battle group,” said the source.

“We demand [of ourselves] absolute land and naval superiority, and minimizing harm to Home Front Command as much as possible.” The IDF is working on addressing shortcomings, such as shortages in ammunition.

Turning to the Gideon plan, the source stated its goals as “magnifying deterrence in the region, being on high alert, and increasing the window of calm and normalcy around the state of Israel as much possible, to give the country time to flourish.”

A covert Israeli ‘war between wars’ against its enemies, which is ongoing, helps increase Israeli deterrence, limits armament efforts by foes, and sets up better conditions for a future conflict, he said.

The source stressed, however, that he sees “not only threats but also a big opportunity to adapt the IDF to future challenges. This is the basis of the Gideon multi-year program.”

The Gideon plan calls for significant cost cutting in the form of letting go of 100,000 reservists. “Those who are left will be better trained, equipped, and ready for war,” said the source. “The same is true of [reforms to] quality platforms in the air, sea, and on the ground.”

The plan calls for a new model for career soldiers, after shedding 5,000 of them. Under the new model, career soldiers like brigade and battalion commanders will be younger, and fewer.

According to the IDF’s calculations, it saves a billion shekels in salaries and pensions per 1000 career soldiers let go of service.

Cuts to reserve artillery support units and reserve battalions are also included in the plan.

” We want to set up school for command and control, and decrease officers. We have already cut four major-generals. For every 4 to 5 majors, there will be one lieutenant colonel,” said the source.

“We want to make cuts across all things not connected to combat: education, the IDF Rabbinate, Army Radio, the censorship division, the women adviser’s department, the reserves department,and the C4i Corps,” he said. “We’ll maintain aerial and intelligence superiority.” The result, he said, is a smaller military but one that is better prepared, equipped, and trained.

The source expressed doubts over the upcoming Locker Commission report on the defense budget, which calls for providing military pensions only to combat personnel from the level of battalion commander and upwards.

“To intercept an [Iranian arms smuggling ship like the] Klos C doesn’t take 20 personnel, it takes thousands of people working around the clock, including non combat personnel. To say that only battalion commanders or air force squadrons should receive pensions is a joke,” the source said.

According to the Gideon plan, one out of ten career soldiers will remain in the military long enough to get to pensions.

“There’s a reason the IDF has the most advanced capability in the world in underground warfare, protecting the population from missiles, cyber warfare, and satellites,” the source said, referring to defense spending.

The Gideon plan would be based on a multi-year spending commitment of between 61 to 64 billion shekels per year.

UN Security Council unanimously approves Iran deal

EU foreign ministers okay pact ahead of United Nations vote; Netanyahu urges Congress to keep US sanctions in place

By Marissa Newman and AP July 20, 2015, 4:36 pm

via UN Security Council unanimously approves Iran deal | The Times of Israel.

The United Nations Security Council voting on the Iran nuclear deal (Screen capture: UN Webcast)

The UN Security Council on Monday unanimously adopted a resolution endorsing the Iran nuclear deal and paving the way to lifting longstanding sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

The 15-0 approval of the Iran nuclear deal approves one of the largest hurdles for the landmark pact, which will now go before the US Congress where it may face an uphill battle for confirmation.

The UN vote came shortly after the European Union approved the nuclear deal in Brussels, okaying the pact between the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany and Iran that lifts punishing economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for temporary curbs on nuclear activity.

Ambassadors from the so-called P5+1 touted the deal in a Security Council debate following the vote.

“It is a good deal, good for the United Kingdom, good for the United Nations, good for Iran,” UK ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said.

On condition that Iran respects the agreement to the letter, seven UN resolutions passed since 2006 to sanction Iran will be gradually terminated, according to the text of the deal, reached in Vienna last week.

Israel has opposed the terms of the deal.

Among those voting in favor at the Security Council was Jordan, a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, putting a dent in Israel’s claim that all the Sunni Arab states in the region oppose the deal as vociferously as Jerusalem.

EU foreign ministers maintained that the deal as it stands is the best option available, according to Reuters.

“It is a balanced deal that means Iran won’t get an atomic bomb,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius was quoted by Reuters as saying at the vote by EU foreign ministers. “It is a major political deal.”

Ahead of the vote, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Congress to keep US sanctions on Iran in place.

The UN Security Council vote is not “the end of the story,” Netanyahu said. “So long as US Congress sanctions are in place, and noting that the US economy is 40 times larger than Iran’s, Iran will need to make concessions.”

Netanyahu slammed the Security Council vote as “hypocrisy,” stressing that Tehran “systematically violates UN resolutions and calls for the destruction of Israel — a member of the UN.”

The prime minister said many countries in the Middle East see “eye-to-eye with Israel” on the nuclear deal. “History has proven that even when the world is united, it is not necessarily right,” he said.

“They say this agreement pushes war away but in fact it brings war closer. Firstly, because Iran will receive hundreds of billions of dollars and already now states openly that it will use this money to fund its terror proxies. Secondly, [the deal] will start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East,” Netanyahu said.

The EU said it will keep its embargo on supplying ballistic missile technology, as well as sanctions related to Iran’s human rights record, diplomats said.

High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini speaks to journalists during a Foreign Affairs meeting at the European Union headquarters in Brussels on July 20, 2015. (AFP PHOTO/JOHN THYS)

Earlier Monday, Iran’s foreign minister criticized the United States and Israel for not taking the threat of military action against Tehran off the table following the landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

The official IRNA news agency quoted Iran’s top diplomat, Mohammad Javad Zarif, as saying the military option remains a very hazardous idea.

“Applying force … is not an option but an unwise and dangerous temptation,” he said. Yet, Zarif added, “there are people who talk about illegal and illegitimate application of force” for their own purposes.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during a press conference, July 15, 2015. (AFP/ATTA KENARE)

He called the nuclear deal reached last week a “victory of diplomacy over war and violence.”

Zarif did not single out any specific country but his remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said during a visit to Israel that the accord imposes no limits on what Washington can do to ensure the security of Israel and US Arab allies.

Carter also said the deal “does nothing to prevent … the US military option.”

Under the agreement, Iran’s nuclear program will be curbed for a decade in exchange for potentially hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of relief from international sanctions.

Jonathan Beck contributed to this report.

UN Security Council unanimously confirms Iran deal

Earlier, EU approves agreement; ‘It is a balanced deal that means Iran won’t get an atomic bomb,’ says French FM Fabius

July 20, 2015, 2:01 pm

via UN Security Council unanimously confirms Iran deal | The Times of Israel.