WarSclerotic

Like it or not, Putin’s is the ‘only game in town’ Gulf News, Mustapha Karkouti, September 26, 2015

(Nature abhors a vacuum and Obama created one in the Middle East. Please see also, A Chinese aircraft carrier docks at Tartus to support Russian-Iranian military buildup. — DM)

With a nearly total absence of any significant US-led coalition presence in Syria, apart from slow-effective air strikes, Moscow seems to be the only dominant player in that region. As the Kremlin clearly stated, Putin’s intention is to prevent a repetition of Libya’s 2011 scenario and avoid the total collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s authority, similar to what happened following Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow after the badly-planned intervention by Nato. Putin is simply, but clearly, saying to the West: Where you failed in Libya, I’ll do better in Syria.

[W]hatever Putin’s plans are in the long run, his mission in the country is largely seen by the majority of Syrians as a sinister effort to save Al Assad and help him consolidate his authority in Syria.

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It is very rare that a Russian head of state holds top strategic talks with an Israeli prime minister in the Russian capital. This happened just recently when Vladimir Putin met Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Syria’s latest developments. The two chiefs are not known to have had close and friendly personal relations, but they displayed those sitting side by side in the Kremlin last week. The arrival in Moscow last Monday of Netanyahu accompanied by his chief of staff and head of military intelligence, is by all means unprecedented.

The visit is significant as it is a part of tripartite diplomatic activities that involve discussions with the US as well. The American Defence Secretary Ashton Carter has recently had a long and “useful” discussion with his Russian counterpart over Syria. With the current congestion of military activities in the sky above the region by the Israelis and Americans and the rapidly increasing presence of Russian forces and hardware, there is obviously a need to liaise to avoid any unpredicted conflict, i.e. shooting down one another’s planes by mistake. But both the US and Israel’s main concern goes far beyond the technicalities. They aim mostly at finding out what exactly the Kremlin’s long term purpose in Syria is and how far Moscow is capable of effectively controlling the direction of the tragic game currently being played in this sad country.

Sitting next to Netanyahu, Putin reassuringly explained what he was trying to achieve by stating that Moscow’s main goal was “to protect the Syrian state”, or more accurately, what’s left of it. The Russian president seemed fully aware of Netanyahu’s main concern of the Iran-supported potential attacks by Hezbollah and the Syrian army across the occupied Golan Heights, when he told his visitor that neither Damascus nor the Iranian-financed Lebanese militia was “in any state to open a second front”. In others words, Putin reassured Netanyahu that Moscow was fully engaged with Tehran and Damascus on that front.

Saving Al Assad

With a nearly total absence of any significant US-led coalition presence in Syria, apart from slow-effective air strikes, Moscow seems to be the only dominant player in that region. As the Kremlin clearly stated, Putin’s intention is to prevent a repetition of Libya’s 2011 scenario and avoid the total collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s authority, similar to what happened following Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow after the badly-planned intervention by Nato. Putin is simply, but clearly, saying to the West: Where you failed in Libya, I’ll do better in Syria.

The timing of Moscow’s build-up along the Syrian coastal area couldn’t be more perfect, particularly with western policy on the country in a state of limbo. Surely, moving dozens of combat aircraft and hundreds of troops to the aid of the encircled Syrian president must have been given the green light a while ago. This is precisely how Putin sees the situation. Under the nose of the Americans and the world community, Russian personnel and Special Forces have re-emerged in large numbers at an old air base of theirs near Al Assad’s stronghold of Latakia. Russia has always had, through the former Soviet Union, significant military presence in Syria during the long years of the Cold War and beyond.

However, whatever Putin’s plans are in the long run, his mission in the country is largely seen by the majority of Syrians as a sinister effort to save Al Assad and help him consolidate his authority in Syria.

After all, Al Assad is the man largely accused of killing thousands of Syrians during the almost five-year war in the country. It has become absolutely clear that all players in the region, including US, Israel, Turkey and Iran are adjusting to the new reality as a result of the speed and scale of Russian’s deployment. It is commonly known now that Israel was made aware of Moscow’s deployment before it began, while Iran had been informed of the move as early as the first week of August. In fact, shipments from Black Sea ports to the Syrian port of Tartous began to pass through the Bosphorus as from August 20.

The Russians had moved by last Tuesday into the coastal stretch between Latakia and Tartous 28 combat jets (12 Su24 bombers, 12 Su25 ground attack aircraft and 4 Su-30 multi-role fighters), two types of drones and 20 multi-purpose helicopters. Almost the equivalent of Al Assad’s entire air power. Pentagon officials have confirmed these deployments and said Russian drones are now fully operating where offensive air attacks could be expected very soon.

Turkey on its part, is willing to dip its hands in ‘Syria’s Cake’ as a highly Turkish informed source told me few days ago, and send troops into the country, provided it gets the green light to set up its ‘no-fly zone’ along Syria’s northern borders. In fact, discussion between Ankara and several European capitals, including Berlin, over the issue has been going on for sometimes as many European leaders consider the no-fly zone option is urgently needed method to help controlling the flow of refugees into European Union countries.

However, with Iran well entrenched behind Al Assad at an annual cost of $6-$10 billion (Dh22-36.7 billion), it is also a decisive regional power of huge influence in shaping events in shrinking Syria and beyond. Additionally, there is newcomer into the killing fields of Syria as China has just officially revealed that it is sending personnel and advisers to assess the situation. And with almost total US absence in the Levant, Russia would militarily and politically remain the most significant power to shore up Al Assad’s regime as long as it is possible.