Archive for May 2016

Suddenly Russia consents to consider Assad’s ouster

May 4, 2016

Suddenly Russia consents to consider Assad’s ouster, DEBKAfile, May 4, 2016

Washington and Moscow have made dramatic progress over the last few days in marathon telephone talks between Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on ending the war in Syria. Russia agreed for the first time to discuss the possibility that Syrian President Bashar Assad will step down, and the conditions under which such a process will take place, according to DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources.

The sources add that the Russians also agreed to begin to negotiate the future of senior Syrian military commanders who are carrying out the war against the rebels. The contacts that include the Saudis and the Jordanians have reached such an advanced stage that participants have started to prepare lists of Syrian commanders who will be removed or remain in their posts.

One of the clearest signs of the progress was the arrival of nearly all of the heads and commanders of the Syrian rebel organizations on Monday and Tuesday (May 2-3) for intensive talks at the US Central Command Forward-Jordan, a war room outside Amman staffed by officers from the US, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The gathering was arranged via a series of meetings held in Geneva over the last few days between the top diplomats of the US, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Our sources report that US officials and senior officers in charge of the Obama administration’s strategy for the war in Syria presented the rebel leaders and commanders with a series of agreements already reached by Washington and Moscow on ways of ending the war. The main part of the agreement focused on the resignation of Assad and the departure of him and his family from the country-the Syrian opposition’s key demand for continuing the talks.

The rebel leaders were asked by the US officials and officers, who were accompanied by Saudi and Jordanian officials, to help facilitate implementation of the agreed measures and not to try to interfere with them, or in other words, to stop the fighting.

According to the information from our sources, the discussions in Jordan are continuing.

Washington’s current goal is achieve a ceasefire in all of Syria that will prevent an imminent attack by Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah forces on Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city.

Our military sources report that on Monday and Tuesday, by order of President Vladimir Putin, the Russian air force suddenly halted its airstrikes in the Aleppo area.

Thus, the Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah armies are preparing to launch their assault without the air support needed to capture the city. Even though the Syrian air force can operate in an uninhibited manner in the Aleppo area, it is not up to a large-scale and decisive attack.

No specific information is forthcoming for the Russian U-turn on Assad ousters in mid offensive for the recovery of Aleppo.

However Putin is prone to sudden zigzag in policies.

The 5 Stages of Political Death by Donald Trump

May 4, 2016

The 5 Stages of Political Death by Donald Trump

by Matthew Palumbo3

May 2016

Source: The 5 Stages of Political Death by Donald Trump – Breitbart

Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The phenomenon that is Donald Trump and the Trump candidacy is historic. It has created an election and an atmosphere that we could go another century without seeing again.

Given that Donald Trump is the Haley’s Comet of American politics, no political science playbook or textbook or game plan exists on how to handle this phenomenon. From day 1, Donald Trump has baffled pundits, experts, strategists, analysts; and just about everyone else paying attention.

The efficacy of the Trump campaign to this point is attributable to Mr. Trump’s unpredictability and unconventionality. They call the study of politics and campaign management in academia “Political Science” for a reason. It doesn’t just exist to give future law students an easy major. Much like hard sciences, the political scientist likes to deal in theory or law with best practices, related to distinct causes and effects, tested over time in the laboratory.

But don’t expect to see any test tubes and microscopes. Politicos use public opinion, focus groups, conventional wisdom, and statistical analysis in their laboratory.

Donald Trump and his campaign has not only never entered the political laboratory — he’s burned it to the ground.

What is evident however is that a pattern has developed in the manner in which Donald Trump has dispatched his opponents — in the case of Jeb Bush, with nothing more than an adjective. One by one, his 16 opponents in the quest for the GOP nomination have vanished.

Each of these opponents was unique in their interactions with Trump over the course of the campaign. But in examining these interactions and how they have been portrayed in the media and evaluated by the court of public opinion, Trump’s opponents have met their demise to what I call: “ The 5 Stages of Political Death by Trump.”

Here are the stages:

Stage 1: Under Estimation

Hubris and ego are most prevalent in this stage as Trump’s opponents discount his business acumen and question his vast wealth and how he amassed it. Collectively they discount any chance he has for any type of success because he is after all a political novice and lacks the instincts needed to achieve. They ridicule his appearance, his hit TV show, and overall competence.

Stage 2: Placation

After they’ve gotten past Stage 1, the Trump opponent begins to realize that maybe Trump does have some appeal. During this stage advisers will tell the Trump opponent to “stay above the fray,” or “to keep doing your own thing,” or respond when asked about Trump with general platitudes like, I couldn’t care less about Trump.” Essentially you are just trying to stay out of his gaze, and thus stay out of his crosshairs. Your grandpa called it, “whistling past the graveyard” — at least mine did.

Stage 3: Manipulation

When their strategy in Stage 2 proves unsuccessful, Trump’s opponents attempt to manipulate him and diminish his rising poll numbers and momentum by impacting his campaign with external forces. Examples of this have been the eminent domain argument, the KKK attacks and focusing on his past donations to Democrats (though they never seem to mention that Hillary Clinton was once a Republican). Hyperbolic labeling is popular during this phase, as comparisons of Trump are made by his opponents to some of histories most divisive and infamous characters.

Stage 4: Frustration

After Trump utilizes his broad populist appeal to stave off the manipulative, coordinated attacks from Stage 3, good old fashioned frustration sets in. How could people be so dumb?and “Trump appeals to the low information voter” are typically the types of sound bites that you will hear during this stage — ironically, especially so from Democrats, claiming to represent the “common man.” During this phase you’ll also see Trump opponents make wholesale changes in their staff. Like the cherry blossoms in spring, denial is in full bloom during Stage 4.

Stage 5: Hate

Like a pot full of boiling water with the stove still on high, Trump’s opponents become enraged, unable to grasp how they could be losing to the incompetent novice whom they had foolishly under estimated in Stage 1. During this stage the Trump opponent begins to deviate from their disciplined style of campaigning and they begin to make rash, reckless decisions. Their hand has been forced by Trump, never a good situation for a candidate to be in. This stage signals that political death is near.

With the GOP nomination all but wrapped up for Donald Trump, and his delegate count surging toward 1237, many are now looking toward the general election and the match up with Hillary Clinton. For those of you scoring at home, Hillary and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz are currently vacillating between Stages 1,2, and 3.

Exclusive – Donald Trump: ‘The Real Enemy Is Hillary Clinton’

May 4, 2016

Exclusive — Donald Trump: ‘The Real Enemy Is Hillary Clinton’

by Matthew Boyle4

May 2016Washington, DC

Source: Exclusive – Donald Trump: ‘The Real Enemy Is Hillary Clinton’ – Breitbart

AP Photos

Presumptive Republican nominee for President billionaire Donald Trump told Breitbart News exclusively on Tuesday evening that “the real enemy” lies ahead in likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s interview with Breitbart News came before the polls closed in Indiana, just as he was wrapping up winning the GOP nomination for the presidency. It was still unclear whether Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) would officially drop out at that point, but it was becoming evident that Trump was going to lock up the nomination.

Trump called this Breitbart News exclusive interview to unify the Republican Party and to set his sights squarely on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee—saying that she is the “real enemy.”

“The real enemy is Hillary Clinton and four more years of essentially Obama,” Trump said. “The country cannot take it. Our country is not going to be able to survive four more years of incompetence and bad decision-making. As Bernie Sanders says loud and clear, Hillary Clinton suffers from bad judgment.”

Trump said Clinton’s positions in favor of bad trade deals like NAFTA and the Trans Pacific Partnership are going to weaken her in the general election, as will her opposition to securing the U.S. border with Mexico and to a strong American military. Trump went on to say:

I’m going to bring jobs back to America and Hillary has no clue as to jobs. In fact, NAFTA, which was signed by her husband, is the worst economic development deal ever signed in the history of our country—trade deal, I guess you’d call it. The worst trade deal ever signed in the history of our country. It’s cleaned out vast portions of our manufacturing businesses and more. So she can’t beat me on jobs and the economy. She can’t beat me on the border, she can’t come close on the border. She can’t beat me on the military.

Trump also told Breitbart News of his thinking when it comes to selecting a running mate, saying that his vice presidential pick will come from the political–not business–world. He said:

I don’t want to name anybody—what I would most likely be looking at, and I feel like I’d be going a little bit in reverse, in other words, I’d be going for a political person. Because I don’t need a business person, I need a political person. Somebody that can deal with the hill, that can deal with Congress and get things done, get things passed, et cetera, et cetera.

Trump’s interview came as he was expected to win big in Indiana but before his last remaining serious rival Cruz dropped out, thereby handing the nomination to Trump, who said he wanted to “close out” winning the nomination before beginning the process of selecting a running mate.

“I want to close out before I do that—I’ve very much thought about it,” Trump said when asked about the vice presidential candidate selection process. “I want to close out the two people I have now, they’re hanging by their fingernails. And I want to close this out, and once I close this out, that will be a very pleasant process. We have many great people who would do wonderful.”

Trump also said that the high Republican primary turnout—and the low Democrat turnout—is a sign he is going to win in the general election.

“It’s up more than 70 percent,” Trump said. “It’s all because of me. It’s an amazing thing, and everybody is talking about it worldwide. Millions of votes more and millions of votes ahead of Cruz, too, and Kasich. This week we’ll break the all-time record with many states left.”

Trump said he would be beating Clinton in popular votes, too, if he had had only one, non-serious competitor, as she has during the primaries.

“If I didn’t have 17 candidates, and then if I didn’t have 12, and then nine, then seven, and now—even now—we have two, and she’s only got Bernie—we would have had millions more votes than Hillary Clinton,” Trump said. “Right now, we’re about tied. If I didn’t have all these candidates—she only had Bernie—even if we had three as opposed to just two, then I would have had millions of more votes than Hillary. Millions.”

 

Gaza terrorists fire 3rd mortar at IDF troops

May 4, 2016

Gaza: Three mortar attacks in one day on IDF troops For third time Wednesday, terrorists attack IDF forces stationed along Gaza border; fourth such attack in two days.

By Ari Soffer

First Publish: 5/4/2016, 1:02 PM / Last Update: 5/4/2016, 3:13 PM

Source: Gaza terrorists fire 3rd mortar at IDF troops – Defense/Security – News – Arutz Sheva

Terrorists fire mortar shells (file) Flash 90

Terrorists in the Gaza Strip fired a two mortar shells at IDF engineers operating on the Israeli side of the border Wednesday, as tensions in the south continue to rise.

The mortar strikes – which came hours after a similar attack this morning – bring the total number of similar breaches of the ceasefire by Gazan terrorists in two days to four. IDF forces returned fire at a Hamas military post in response to the second attack.

No soldiers were injured in the first attack on Wednesday, which IDF forces responded to with tank fire.

Early Tuesday evening, terrorists opened fire on IDF forces just hours after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu made an impromptu visit to troops stationed at the border with Hamas-ruled Gaza.

It is not yet known which of the many terrorist factions operating in Gaza is responsible for the latest attacks. Previous attacks have either been claimed by or attributed to jihadist terror cells linked to ISIS, or Hamas’s chief Islamist rivals Islamic Jihad, as part of efforts to challenge Hamas’s rule and provoke another round of fighting with Israel.

Russia to form 3 new divisions to counter NATO buildup

May 4, 2016

Russia to form 3 new divisions to counter NATO buildup

Published time: 4 May, 2016 09:04 Edited time: 4 May, 2016 10:03

Source: Russia to form 3 new divisions to counter NATO buildup — RT News

© Vladimir Semenuk / Sputnik

Russia is to deploy two new divisions in the west and one in the south to counterbalance NATO’s increased military presence near Russian borders, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced.

The Defense Ministry is taking a number of measures to respond to the NATO military buildup at the Russian border,” Shoigu said on Wednesday. “Before the year’s end two new divisions will be formed in the Western Military District and one in the Southern Military District.

Earlier there were reports in the Russian media that three new divisions with 10,000 troops each may be deployed in Rostov-on-Don, the Smolensk Region and the Voronezh Region.

NATO has been sending additional forces to Poland, the Baltic States and elsewhere near Russian borders since 2014. It claimed that the deployments were necessary to build confidence of Eastern European members in the face of “Russian aggression.”

READ MORE: US deploys F-22 stealth fighter jets to Romanian base on Black Sea

The perceived aggression was exemplified by the example of Crimea, which seceded from Ukraine after a coup in Kiev. The former Ukrainian region voted in a referendum to join Russia, which was described as an illegal annexation through military force by the new government in Kiev and its foreign allies.

READ MORE: NATO to send 4,000 troops to border with Russia – report

Moscow rejected the reasoning and said that the alliance was using the political crisis in Ukraine to justify its existence by playing the old Russia scaremongering card.

During a top-level meeting at the ministry, Shoigu also said that Russia has rapped-up military training and production of advanced military hardware in response to the NATO threat.

Ted Cruz Suspends Presidential Campaign

May 4, 2016

Ted Cruz Suspends Presidential Campaign, Washington Free Beacon via YouTube, May 3, 2016

Full Donald Trump Indiana Primary Victory Speech

May 4, 2016

Full-Donald Trump Indiana Primary Victory Speech, Washington Free Beacon via YouTube, May 3, 2016

(Gracious, particularly to Ted Cruz who has “suspended” his campaign. As Trump said, now it’s time unite the party and to go after Hillary Clinton. — DM)

Humor | To Know Ted Cruz Is To Wish You Didn’t

May 4, 2016

To Know Ted Cruz Is To Wish You Didn’t, Late Night Show with Stephen Colbert via YouTube, May 3, 2016

 

Iran Renews Commitment to Jihad Against Israel

May 4, 2016

Iran Renews Commitment to Jihad Against Israel

BY:
May 3, 2016 1:44 pm

Source: Iran Renews Commitment to Jihad Against Israel

Senior Iranian leaders on Tuesday renewed their commitment to violent resistance against Israel during meetings with top leaders of the Islamic Jihad terror group, according to recent remarks.

Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, held a Tuesday meeting in Tehran with Ramadan Abdullah, secretary general of the Islamic Jihad group. Following the powwow, Larijani affirmed Iran’s commitment to the terrorist fight against Israel.

“Intifada is an important opportunity for Palestine and you should endeavor to keep this stream alive and God will help you on the path of Intifada until victory,” Larijani was quoted as saying in the country’s state-controlled press.

The Islamic Jihad leader reportedly thanked the Iranian official and claimed that “Intifada is the only way for Palestinians to gain freedom and get rid of their cumbersome situation,” according to the report.

Ali Shamkhani, the secretary Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, offered similar comments on Monday supporting resistance against Israel.

“All advocates of the Palestinian cause worldwide now share the view that the only way to victory and restoration of the Palestinians’ rights is to rely on people’s determination to continue Islamic resistance,” Shamkhani was quoted as saying after his own meeting with Abdullah.

Iranian Hezbollah Organization Issues Threats Of Physical Harm Against Former Iranian Presidents Rafsanjani And Khatami, Calls On President Rohani To Cancel JCPOA

May 3, 2016

Iranian Hezbollah Organization Issues Threats Of Physical Harm Against Former Iranian Presidents Rafsanjani And Khatami, Calls On President Rohani To Cancel JCPOA, MEMRI, May 3, 2016

“Mr. President, you bear responsibility for every martyr whose blood has been spilled. If you look at all the breaches of promise and disruptions by ‘the Great Satan,’ America, and declare firmly that you are cancelling the JCPOA because of America’s violations [of it], history will never forget your heroic and revolutionary move; the heart of the Imam Mahdi will also rejoice because of you.

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In an April 12, 2016 interview, Mahdi Abdi, the director of affairs for the northwestern provinces and towns for the coordination council of the fundamentalist organization Hezbollah Iran, which is affiliated with Iran’s ideological circles, warned leaders of Iran’s pragmatic camp, including Expediency Council chairman and former president Hashemi Rafsanjani and former president Mohammad Khatami, not to undermine the status of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The interview was published by the organization’s Hezbollah Press website.

Echoing Khamenei’s accusations of treason against Rafsanjani,[1] Abdi accused both Rafsanjani and Khatami of treason, and threatened them with physical harm. He also demanded that they stop calling for the release of the 2009 Green Protest leaders – former Majlis speaker Mehdi Karroubi and former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, as well as Mousavi’s wife – who have been under house arrest since 2011.

Reminding Iranian President Hassan Rohani of what happened to Iranian officials who criticized Iran’s Islamic Revolution and the path of its founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Abdi warned him to neither trust the U.S. nor follow it, or to face the consequences. He also called on him to cancel the JCPOA.

The following are the main points of the interview. It should be noted that following its publication, the piece was removed from the website.

“This Is Hezbollah’s Final Warning To Hashemi [Rafsanjani] And The Grey Fox, [Former President] Mohammad Khatami, And To Anyone Who Even Thinks About Marginalizing The Imam Khamenei”

“The heart of [Iranian] Hezbollah is bleeding because of the tremendous disloyalty and the great treason of the unwise and two-faced [pragmatic camp leaders Rafsanjani and Rohani]. Imam Khamenei need not feel alone today because certain individuals who are betraying Islam and the Revolution are daring to boast and to express opinions in society, while others dare to speak about an end to the arrest of the hated leaders of the ‘2009 fitna’ [Mousavi and Karroubi]. [These traitors are] publishing [such statements] freely online and talking about it, and [expecting] the security apparatuses to remain silent.

“The hated leaders of the ‘fitna’ should thank God that they are under arrest. Otherwise, Hezbollah would not have given them a chance to breathe. This is Hezbollah’s final warning to Hashemi [Rafsanjani] and the grey fox, [former president] Mohammad Khatami, and to anyone who even thinks about marginalizing the Imam Khamenei, trampling the principles and foundations of the Islamic Revolution, and seeking to present the plan for a leadership council [as Rafsanjani recently proposed as a replacement for the position of Supreme Leader] in order to weaken the Rule of the Jurisprudent.

“If they are thinking of sparking more ‘fitna’ in Iran, Hezbollah will activate its popular punishment units, the ones called The Martyrs For the Revolution and Islam, and, once and for all, blind the eyes of the ‘fitna.'”

To President Rohani: “Hezbollah Obeys The Orders Of The Imam Khamenei And Will Never Allow These Things, Which Contradict Islam, To Be Carried Out In Iran”

“Mr. President [Rohani], many times the Koran called on Muslims to learn from history. We look at history today and see what became of those who trusted foreigners, especially those who trusted the bloodthirsty ‘Great Satan’ America. They all suffered harm, and ultimately ended up regretting having trusted America.

“If Islamic Iran wishes today to receive aid from the ‘arrogant nations,’ chiefly America, it must turn its back on the civilization of Islam and on the descendants of [Imam] Ali [that is, the Shi’ites] and must melt into their false civilization, must deny jihad, must abandon the oneness of God, and must enable them [i.e. the ‘arrogant nations’] to boycott Iran, using the human rights [issue] as an excuse. Or, much like the backwards Arab countries, [Iran] must hand over its interests and its oil in favor of the interests of the arrogance and of America, must back down from the explicit Koranic commandment about supporting the oppressed, and must form a friendly alliance with the occupying Israel.

“All the above contradict the original, noble civilization of Mohammad’s Islam. Hezbollah obeys the orders of the Imam Khamenei, and will never allow these things, which contradict Islam, to be carried out in Iran – because all the days are [the days of] Ashura [the Shi’ite days of mourning for the Imam Hossein who died in the Battle of Karbala in 680] and all the lands are [the lands of] Karbala – unless we lose our minds. Hezbollah will never forget all of this.

“Mr. President, tomorrow history will judge, and coming generations will ask: ‘Has the nation achieved anything from pouring concrete into the heart of Iran’s science [i.e. into the heavy water reactor in Arak, as required under the JCPOA]? Why do the officials still trust foreigners, although they repeatedly break their promises?’

“Mr. President, you bear responsibility for every martyr whose blood has been spilled. If you look at all the breaches of promise and disruptions by ‘the Great Satan,’ America, and declare firmly that you are cancelling the JCPOA because of America’s violations [of it], history will never forget your heroic and revolutionary move; the heart of the Imam Mahdi will also rejoice because of you.

“In the Islamic Republic [of Iran], the president, in his various terms of office, is legitimate so long as he truly believes, in thought and in action, in the rule of the jurisprudent. We must learn from history – from the fate of people such as [president Abolhassan] Bani Sadr [deposed in 1981] and [Ayatollah Hossein Ali] Montazeri [designated heir of Ayatollah Khomeini, who spent the latter years of his life under house arrest until his death in 2009], who trampled the line of [the rule of the jurisprudent], and were shamed and humiliated.”

Abdi concluded the interview by referring to a tweet by Rafsanjani about the current era as “an age of talks and not missiles”[2] and said: “It is enough to respond to Rafsanjani with a single word, and to say that had the Islamic State [ISIS] entered Iran and captured your daughter, you would have known the value of Iran’s missile and defense industry, and of the heroic deeds of the brave men of the IRGC.”

 

Endnotes:

 

[1] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6373, Power Struggle Between Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s Ideological Camp And Rafsanjani’s Pragmatic Camp Intensifies – Part III: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Speaks Out Against Pragmatic Camp Leaders Rafsanjani, Rohani, April 5, 2016.

[2] MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6373, Power Struggle Between Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s Ideological Camp And Rafsanjani’s Pragmatic Camp Intensifies – Part III: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Speaks Out Against Pragmatic Camp Leaders Rafsanjani, Rohani, April 5, 2016.