Archive for June 27, 2015

Who is Responsible for the Atrocities in the Muslim World?

June 27, 2015

Who is Responsible for the Atrocities in the Muslim World? The Gatestone InstituteUzay Bulut, June 27, 2015


  • If colonialism were the main problem, Muslims, too, still are, colonizers — and not particularly “humanitarian” ones, at that.
  • Islamic jihad and Islamic violence; the sanctioning of sex slavery; dehumanization of women; hatred and persecution of non-Muslims have been commonplace in the Islamic world ever since the inception of the religion. Deny everything and blame “the infidel.”
  • But is it America that tells these men to treat their wives or sisters as less than fully human? If we want to criticize the West for what is going on in the Muslim world, we should criticize it for not doing more to stop these atrocities.
  • Trying to whitewash the damage that the Islamic ideology has done to the Muslim world, while putting the blame of Islamic atrocities on the West, will never help Muslims face their own failures and come up with progressive ways to resolve them.

Every time the ISIS, Boko Haram, Iran, or any terrorist group in the Muslim world is discussed, many people tend to hold the West responsible for the devastation and murders they commit. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Blaming the failures in the Muslim world on Western nations is simply bigotry and an attempt to shift the blame and to prevent us from understanding the real root cause of the problem.

When these Islamic terrorist groups abduct women to sell them as sex-slaves or “wives;” conduct mass crucifixions and forced conversions; behead innocent people en masse; try to extinguish religious minorities and demolish irreplaceable archeological sites, the idea that this is the fault of the West is ludicrous, offensive and wrong.

Western states, like many other states, try to protect the security of their citizens. What they essentially need, therefore, are peaceful states as partners with which they can have economic, commercial and diplomatic relations. They do not need genocidal terrorist groups that destroy life, peace and stability in huge swaths across the Muslim world.

Western states also have democratic and humanitarian values, which Islamic states do not. The religious and historical experiences of the Western world and the Islamic world are so enormously different that they ended up having completely different cultures and values.

The West, established on Jewish, Christian and secular values, has created a far more humanitarian, free and democratic culture. Sadly, much of the Muslim world, under Islamic sharia law, has created a misogynistic, violent and totalitarian culture.

This does not mean that the West has been perfect and sinless. The West still commits some appalling crimes: Europe is guilty of paving the way for the slaughter of six million Jews in the Holocaust, and for still not protecting its Jewish communities. Even today, many European states contort logic to recognize Hamas, which openly states that it aims to commit genocide against Jewish people.

The West, however, accepts responsibility for the failures in its own territories: for instance, not being able to protect European women from Muslim rapists. These men have moved to Europe to benefit from the opportunities and privileges there, but instead of showing gratitude to European people and government, they have raped the women there, and tried to impose Islamic sharia law.

If we want to criticize the West for what is going on in the Muslim world, we should criticize it for not doing more to stop these atrocities.

The West, and particularly the U.S., should use all of its power to stop them — especially the genocides committed against Jews, Christians and other non-Muslims in the Muslim world.

We should also criticize the West — and others, such as the United Nations and its distorted Gaza War report — for supporting those who proudly commit terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians, and we should criticize the West for not siding with the state of Israel in the face of genocidal Jew-hatred.

We should criticize the West for letting Islamic anti-Semitism grow in Europe, making lives unbearable for Jews day by day.

We should criticize the West for having accepted without a murmur the Turkish occupation of Northern Cyprus for more than 40 years.

We should also criticize the West for leaving the fate of Kurds, a persecuted and stateless people, to the tender mercies of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria — and now the Islamic State (ISIS). On June 25, ISIS carried out yet another deadly attack, killing and wounding dozens of people in the Kurdish border town of Kobani, in Syrian Kurdistan.

And we should criticize especially the current U.S. government for not being willing to take serious action to stop ISIS, Boko Haram and other extremist Islamic groups.[1]

The list could go on and on. Moreover, it would not be realistic to claim that these groups or regimes all misunderstand the teachings of their religion in exactly the same way.

It would also not be realistic to claim that the West has created all these hundreds of Islamic terror groups across the Muslim world.

The question, then, is: Who or what does create all these terrorist groups and regimes?

In almost all parts of the Muslim world, systematic discrimination, and even murder, are rampant — especially of women and non-Muslims. Extremist Islamic organizations, however, are not the only offenders. Many Muslim civilians who have no ties with any Islamist group also commit these offenses daily. Jihad (war in the service of Islam) and the subjugation of non-Muslims are deeply rooted in the scriptures and history of Islam.

Ever since the seventh century, Muslim armies have invaded and captured Jewish, Christian, Hindu, Buddhist and Zoroastrian lands; for more than 1400 years since, they have continued their jihad, or Islamic raids, against other religions.

Many people seem to be justifiably shocked by the barbarism of ISIS, but Islamic jihad does not belong just to ISIS. Violent jihad is a centuries-long tradition of Islamic ideology. ISIS is just one jihadist army of Islam. There are many.

All of this is an Islamic issue. The free West has absolutely nothing to do with the creation and preservation of this un-free culture.

The West has, on the contrary, been the victim of Islamic military campaigns and imperialistic pursuits: Christian peoples of Europe have been exposed to Ottoman invasions and subjugation for centuries. The fall of Byzantine Empire marked the peak of Islamic Jihad in Christian lands. Many places in Europe — including Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, and Cyprus, among others — were all invaded and occupied by the Ottoman armies. Other targets, including Venice, Austria, and Poland, had to fight fierce defensive wars to protect their territories.

The historical and current troubles in the Muslim world are not, therefore, problems “imported” from an outside source; they are internal cultural and political problems, which Muslim regimes and peoples have reproduced for centuries.

Some of the things that women in Saudi Arabia may not do were listed in The Week magazine: Saudi women are not allowed to “go anywhere without a male chaperone, open a bank account without their husband’s permission, drive a car, vote in elections, go for a swim, compete freely in sports, try on clothes when shopping, enter a cemetery, read an uncensored fashion magazine and buy a Barbie and so on.”

Of course, there is nothing specific in Islamic scriptures about cars, fashion magazines or Barbie Dolls. But there is enough there that indicates why all of these abuses, and more, are widespread across the Islamic world, and why the clerics, imams and muftis approve them.

The central issue is to see how the lines that the Islamic theology draws seed the soil in which this kind of discrimination systematically buds, why it is extolled and how it is advocated.

Saudi Arabia is not the only Muslim country where women are dehumanized. Throughout almost the almost the entire Muslim world — including Turkey, considered one of the most “liberal” Muslim countries — women are continually abused or killed by their husbands, ex-husbands, boyfriends, fathers, brothers or other males. [2]

Is it America that tells these men to treat their wives or sisters as less than fully human?

Is the West really what stops them from respecting human rights or resolving their political matters through diplomatic and peaceful ways? Are Muslims too stupid to make wise decisions, and act responsibly? Why should Americans or Europeans have evil wishes for the rest of the world?

Demonizing Western nations — even after all of their cultural, scientific and rational progress — is simply pure racism.

“The belief that the West is always guilty is among the dozen bad ideas for the 21st century,”wrote the Australian pastor, Dr. Mark Durie. “This irrational and unhelpful idea is taught in many schools today and has become embedded in the world views of many. It is essentially a silencing strategy, sabotaging critical thinking.”

Another term that prevents one from understanding the root causes of the conflicts in the Muslim world is “moral relativism” — a politically correct term that really means moral cowardice.

Defending “moral relativism” and saying that “all cultures are equal” really means saying a culture that encourages child marriages, beating women and selling girls on slave markets has a value equal to a culture that respects women and recognizes their rights, and which renounces wanton violence.

Another popular target of blame for the failures in the Muslim world is historical British colonialism.

If colonialism were the main problem, however, Muslims, too, were, and still are, colonizers — and not particularly “humanitarian” ones, at that. The Muslim colonizers do not even seem to have contributed much to the culture of the places they invaded and colonized. In fact, they have actually delayed the progress of the areas they colonized. The printing press, for instance, came to the Ottoman territories almost 200 years later than to Europe.

“Books… undermine the power of those who control oral knowledge, since they make that knowledge readily available to anyone who can master literacy,” wrote Professor Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. This threatened to undermine the existing status quo, where knowledge was controlled by elites. The Ottoman sultans and religious establishment feared the creative destruction that would result. Their solution was to forbid printing.” [3]

“European Empires — the British, French and Italians — had a short-lived presence in North Africa and the Middle East compared with the Ottoman Empire, which ruled over that region for more than 500 years,” said the historian Niall Ferguson.

“The culture that exists in the greater Middle East and North Africa today bears very, very few resemblances to the culture that Europeans tried to implement there, beginning in the late 19th century and carrying on through to the mid-20th century.

“You can’t say it is the fault of imperialism and leave out the longest living empire in the Middle East, which was the Ottoman Empire, a Muslim Empire, which went back much farther than any of the European Empires mentioned in that piece.”

Muslim states continue to occupy and colonize various territories — including Kurdistan, Baluchistan and the northern part of Cyprus, an EU member state.

“One of the most tragic consequences of the 1974 Turkish invasion,” according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cyprus, “and the subsequent illegal occupation of 36.2% of the territory of the Republic of Cyprus, is the violent and systematic destruction of the cultural and religious heritage in the occupied areas.

“Hundreds of historic and religious monuments in various regions of the occupied areas have been destroyed, looted and vandalized. Illegal ‘excavations’ have been carried out and cultural treasures have been stolen from museums and private collections and were sold abroad.”

Muslim groups and regimes continue to persecute indigenous peoples such as Assyrians, Chaldeans, Mandaeans, Shabaks, Copts, Yezidis, and Bedoon, among many others.

“A substantial segment of the Bedoon population lives with the constant threat of deportation hanging over it,” according to the analyst Ben Cohen. “Around 120,000 Bedoon live without nationality and with none of the rights that flow from citizenship.”

“Its members cannot obtain birth or marriage certificates, or identity cards, or driving licenses. They are banned from access to public health and education services. Their second-class status means they have no access to the law courts in order to pursue their well-documented claims of discrimination. And on those rare occasions that they summon the will to protest publicly—as they did in 2011, when demonstrators held signs bearing slogans like, ‘I Have a Dream’—the security forces respond with extraordinary brutality, using such weapons as water cannons, concussion grenades, and tear gas with reckless abandon.”

It is not the West or Israel committing these crimes against the Bedoon community; it is Kuwait, a wealthy Islamic state, which treats defenseless people as if they are slaves.

In Qatar, another wealthy Islamic state, Nepalese migrants building a football stadium, “[h]ave died at a rate of one every two days… This figure does not include the deaths of Indian, Sri Lankan and Bangladeshi workers…. The Nepalese foreign employment promotion board said that 157 of its workers in Qatar had died between January and mid-November” last year. In 2013, the figure for that period was 168.”

1131The family of a Nepalese migrant worker, who died in Qatar, prepares to bury him. Nepalese laborers in Qatar are forced to work in dangerous conditions, and die at the rate of one every two days. (Image source: Guardian video screenshot)

“In Libya, naturalisation is only open to a man if he is of Arab descent,” reported the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). “And many Akhdam in Yemen, a small ethnic minority who may be descendants of African slaves, are reportedly unable to obtain citizenship.”

Is that not apartheid?

In Kuwait, only Muslim applicants may seek naturalization, while Libya’s nationality law allows for the withdrawal of nationality on the grounds of conversion from Islam to another religion.”

Is that not apartheid? Apartheid laws seem to reign over many places in the Muslim world.

Trying to whitewash the damage the Islamic ideology has done to the Muslim world, while putting the blame of Islamic atrocities on the West, will never help Muslims face their own failures and come up with progressive ways to resolve them.

“All the world’s Muslims have fewer Nobel Prizes than Trinity College, Cambridge. They did great things in the Middle Ages, though,” wrote the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins on Twitter, after which other Twitter users piled on to criticize him.

It seems that having oil reserves, per capita, that dwarf anything available to Western countries does not create leading scientific nations.

What holds Muslims back when they have unmatched advantages of underground treasures? Why did the scientific revolution not happen in the Muslim world? Why has much of Islamic history been marked by aggressive jihad?

Islamic jihad and Islamic violence; the sanctioning of sex slavery; dehumanization of women; hatred and persecution of non-Muslims and homosexuals; suppression of free speech; and forced conversions have been commonplace in the Islamic world ever since the inception of the religion.

Many teachings in the Islamic scriptures, as well as the biographies of the founder of the religion, set up the parameters where these abuses not only occur but remain protected on a gigantic scale. These are the teachings that have become the culture of the Muslim world.

Sadly, most Muslims have wasted much time, energy and resources on killing and destruction, but — with the exception of some civilization’s most dazzling artistic splendors — not on scientific and cultural advancement.

Recently, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani, the former Prime Minister of Qatar, said that claims that Qatar paid bribes to win the hosting rights of the 2022 World Cup were “not fair” and stemmed from the West’s Islamophobia and racism towards Arabs.

Recent events indicate that he was, at best, “misinformed.”

Deny everything and blame “the infidel” for your shortcomings. Nothing is more important than your honor, and nothing worse than your shame.

If Muslims wish to create a brighter future, nothing is stopping us but ourselves. We should learn to analyze critically our present and our past.

Human rights activists and academics in the West are lying to Muslims about their culture, and bashing and threatening America, Europe or “Zionism” for the problems of Muslims; this can never lead to any positive developments in the Muslim world. It is the Islamic culture and religious ideology that are responsible for these problems

If there is ever going to be an enlightenment, reform or renaissance in the Muslim world, only a hard look and hard questioning can be its starting point.

_________________

 

[1] Also the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic Republic of Iran, al-Qaeda, Al-Badr, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, Islamic Jihad, al-Nusra Front, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, Al Ghurabaa, Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, Al-Mourabitoun, Abdullah Azzam Brigades, Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, Jamaat Ul-Furquan, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh, Jamiat al-Islah al-Idzhtimai, Great Eastern Islamic Raiders’ Front, Al-Shabaab, Abu Sayyaf, Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi, Supreme Military Majlis ul-Shura of the United Mujahideen Forces of Caucasus, to name just a few.

[2] See: “Gender Equality Gap Greatest in Islamic Countries, Survey Shows“, by Patrick Goodenough, October 29, 2014; “The Treatment of Women In Islam,” by Rachel Molschky, October 7, 2013; “Women Suffer at the Hands of Radical Islam“, by Raymond Ibrahim, January 9, 2014; “As Muslim women suffer, feminists avert their gaze“, by Robert Fulford, National Post; Ayse Onal, a leading Turkish journalist, says in her book, Honour Killing: Stories of Men Who Killed, that in Turkey alone honour killings average about one a day — 1,806 were reported in the period between 2000 and 2005.

[3] Daron, Acemoglu & Robinson, James (2012), Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, Crown Publishing Group.

ISIS “lone wolf” violence on global stage baffles Western authorities fighting terror

June 27, 2015

ISIS “lone wolf” violence on global stage baffles Western authorities fighting terror, DEBKAfile, June 27, 2015

“Nothing to do with Islam.”

— DM)

Tunis-Abu_Yahya_al_Qayrawani_was_responsible_26.6.15_1The Tunisian hotel gunman Abu Yahya al Qayrawani

President Barack Obama has avoided linking terrorism with the Muslim religion. Friday, British premier David Cameron responded to the latest round of ISIS attacks with horror, but he also said, “…this terrorism is not in the name of Islam. Islam is a religion of peace.” The killers, rather, “do it in the name of a twisted, perverted ideology.”

******************

The US State Department said Friday, June 26, that there was no indication so far “on the tactical level” that “the attacks in Tunisia, Kuwait and France were coordinated.”

DEBKAfile: That conventional prototype of Islamist terrorist operations is no longer applicable. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIS has its own methods of inflicting widespread death which are hard to detect or predict. A decree sent from the top galvanized followers worldwide into initiating lasrgely solo operations. The result was: 211 people dead on Tunisian beaches, a decapitated victim – the first in Europe – at an US-owned French factory, and 27 Shiites killed at a Kuwaiti mosque.

The three outrages were perpetrated on three continents just two hours apart.

The second Friday of the Muslim festival month of Ramadan marked the first anniversary of the founding of the Muslim caliphate in Iraq and Syria under the rule of Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi and was therefore judged a fitting date for killing infidels and Shiites.

These atrocities, along with the mass-executions of Syrian Kurds in Kobani and attacks on Saudi Shiite mosques, were also designed to further inflame sectarian hostilities between Sunnis and Shiites and remind non-Sunni minorities, including Kurds and Druze, of the cruel punishment in store for them.

The latest operational mode of terror employed by the Islamic State is a special adaptation of the “lone wolf” method – which is nothing like the lone terrorist acting on impulse, such as Israel officials depict after a Palestinian crashes a vehicle into a crowd, or stabs a passerby. It rests on meticulous forward planning, according to all the evidence.

Most of the terrorists activated by ISIS are radical Muslims living or working outside Syria or Iraq, often in western Europe and the United States, who have pledged an oath of loyalty to the Islamic State and its caliph, or else Western converts who returned home from Middle East battlefields:
These extremists set up their own operations for acting alone, or in twos or threes at most. They choose their targets according to three yardsticks:

1. The highest number of victims they can kill.

2.  The most gruesome atrocity, climaxing in beheading, for inspiring terror in a large community.

ISIS strategists have turned their backs on Osama bin Laden’s tactics. He employed 20 Saudi terrorists to hijack two commercial planes for murdering thousands of people in the horrific 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington.

Fourteen years later, ISIS uses a single terrorist who is ready to die – or two at most – to execute a massacre. It took no more than one gunman, later identified as Abu Yahya al Qayrawani, firing his Kalashnikov non-stop, to mow down 39 mostly foreign holidaymakers on the beaches of the Tunisian resort of Sousse.

Disguised as a European holidaymaker, he sauntered out to the first hotel beach, his automatic rifle hidden in a large sun shade and opened deadly fire on the unsuspecting people lying there, swimming or heading for the hotel lobby. He then raced to the next hotel beach, firing as he went and killing people as they sought cover.

He was only stopped by police gunfire. A bomb belt was found tied to his body, meaning that the shooting was just stage one of the attack. A big explosion was to have followed.

This was no ordinary “lone wolf” terrorist. It was a highly competent terror machine on two feet.

The beheading of victims is another novel Islamic States method, compared with the classical Al Qaeda of yore. Its perpetrators are usually selected from a group of Muslim extremists with a history in the movement. The more gruesome the deed, the more valiant and honored is the perpetrator.

Many of the jihadis are known to Western security and intelligence agencies. In same places, especially Britain, France and Tunisia, they may even serve local Western security agencies as informants, a role they use as cover for secretly setting up their attacks. This makes their attacks virtually unpredictable.

The unfortunate truth is that many Western counter-terror bodies have been penetrated by these extremists who pretend to cooperate in the war on terror and instead keep their handlers confused.

President Barack Obama has avoided linking terrorism with the Muslim religion. Friday, British premier David Cameron responded to the latest round of ISIS attacks with horror, but he also said, “…this terrorism is not in the name of Islam. Islam is a religion of peace.” The killers, rather, “do it in the name of a twisted, perverted ideology.”

DEBKAfile: Too many Muslims, even those who do not preach violence, don’t see it in those terms.

How IDF Intelligence failed to predict ‘Hamastan’ in Gaza following Israeli pullout

June 27, 2015

How IDF Intelligence failed to predict ‘Hamastan’ in Gaza following Israeli pullot

A year before the evacuation, the Southern Command warned of ‘Hamastan in Gaza,’ but Army Intelligence was quick to dismiss it, while the Shin Bet estimated Hamas was interested in calm; those who did try to alert of the dangers of leaving Gaza were pushed aside, while the rest toed the line.

Alex Fishman

Published: 06.27.15, 10:18 / Israel News

via How IDF Intelligence failed to predict ‘Hamastan’ in Gaza following Israeli … – Israel News, Ynetnews.

 

The first time the GOC Southern Command, Dan Harel, heard about the plan to evacuate Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip was on the radio, while driving his car. This was in December 2003. He was listening to prime minister Ariel Sharon’s speech at the Herzliya Conference when he suddenly realized that a dramatic decision has been made in secret and without his knowledge, and that one of the most meaningful events the Israeli society and the IDF will ever experience was going to happen under his command.

The research division at Army Intelligence, which was supposed to provide the intelligence for the Gaza disengagement, was also unaware of what was happening in the prime minister’s close circle.

It is not unreasonable to assume that the prime minister and defense minister would be interested in hearing the opinion of Army Intelligence officials on what are the security consequences such an unprecedented move. But even the head of the research division at the time, Brig.-Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, heard about the disengagement for the first time only when it was already a done deal.

 

Prime minister Sharon, center, with then defense minister Mofaz, left, and IDF chief Ya'alon, right (Photo: GPO)
Prime minister Sharon, center, with then defense minister Mofaz, left, and IDF chief Ya’alon, right (Photo: GPO)

 

This happened during a meeting held by the prime minister’s chief of staff, Attorney Dov Weissglass, who was Sharon’s negotiator with the Palestinians. The decision was presented in that meeting as a done deal, and none of those in attendance – senior Shin Bet and IDF officials – were asked for their opinion on the topic.

The IDF was no more than an executing contractor, according to one of the generals who participated in the discussions about the Gaza disengagement.

The top echelons of the army quickly got used to the fact their opinion did not interest anyone among the political leadership and that they hold no sway or influence on the decision.

Army Intelligence and the Operations Directorate’s analysis of what could happen on the Gaza front after the Israeli withdrawal focused mostly on the advantages of such a move. If there were any who thought otherwise in the army, they kept quiet. Especially in public.

The IDF’s chief at the time, Moshe Ya’alon, whose term was cut short three months before the disengagement from Gaza, knew a little bit more than his generals. During one of the meetings he had with Sharon, shortly before his speech at the Herzliya Conference, the prime minister presented him with an idea he heard from minister Tommy Lapid.

 

Sharon with housing plans for settlers to be evacuated from Gaza, July 2005 (Photo: Getty Imagebank)
Sharon with housing plans for settlers to be evacuated from Gaza, July 2005 (Photo: Getty Imagebank)

 

In an attempt to create a diplomatic initiative and end the diplomatic freeze ahead of the implementation of the American road map for peace that was on the table at the time, Lapid proposed to evacuate three settlements in the Gaza Strip. Ya’alon could not have known that behind this “small plan” was a much bigger plan. Sharon, it seemed, just wanted to test the waters with the IDF chief. At the time, they talked about two or three Jewish settlements on the northern border of the Gaza Strip – Nisanit, Dugit and Elei Sinai.

Ya’alon rejected the idea out of hand. A withdrawal, he claimed, will encourage jihadist groups. Later, Ya’alon was quoted as saying that the disengagement from Gaza will provide a “tailwind” for terrorism, which did not make him any more popular in the Prime Minister’s Office.

 

Then-defense minister, Shaul Mofaz, supported the disengagement, but did not take part in the prime minister’s intimate consultations with his close allies. Several days before the Herzliya Conference, Sharon updated Mofaz in a phone call about his intention to present the disengagement initiative at the conference. Sharon was really checking whether Mofaz would remain by his side during the move.

 

Cold shoulder from Ya’alon

A decade later, the memory of the “executing contractors” – the IDF chief of staff, army generals, Army Intelligence officials and others – is growing dim. But one thing is clearly remembered by all: The army was not a real partner in the decision-making process. What the political leadership was interested in, and this was the army’s main role, was the physical evacuation of the settlements. The IDF was not really asked to present to the political leadership with its assessments of the expected security situation in the area as a result of the disengagement, both on the medium and long-term.

 

Now, these high-ranked officials maintain that Sharon did not include them in the decision-making process both because he was afraid of leaks, and because he was afraid of private and public opposition from the army, which could have sabotaged the evacuation plan.

 

The security cabinet itself was not a full partner in the decision-making process either. Sharon worked with several close advisors – which at the time were referred to as “The Ranch Forum” – and used to have private consultations with a very small group of people, among them some from the military. One of them was Brig.-Gen. Eival Gilady, then the head of the strategic planning division in the Planning Directorate. Weissglass also held meetings with army officials from the Planning Directorate and Army Intelligence. But near the end of 2004, chief of staff Ya’alon barred these officers from showing up to these meetings, because he considered them a manipulative political forum in which the army had no place.

 

Sharon with his chief of staff Dov Weissglass (Photo: Atta Awisat)
Sharon with his chief of staff Dov Weissglass (Photo: Atta Awisat)

 

The relations between Weissglass and the chief of staff were already murky and difficult by that point. While the PMO viewed Ya’alon as a “strange bird” who could only get in the way, the chief of staff’s office suspected Weissglass was turning the prime minister against Ya’alon. Brig.-Gen. Gilady, who continued having direct communications with the prime minister, got the cold shoulder from Ya’alon.

 

After the Herzliya speech, in December 2003, defense minister Mofaz met with chief of staff Ya’alon on the evacuation plan. It was clear to both of them that evacuating three settlements was neither here nor there. The defense minister thought it made more sense to evacuate all of the Jewish settlements in Gaza.

 

Prime minister Sharon speaking at the Herzliya Conference (Photo: Michael Kremer)
Prime minister Sharon speaking at the Herzliya Conference (Photo: Michael Kremer)

 

 

At the time, the prime minister and defense minister received a “map of national security interests” prepared by the Planning Directorate during Yitzhak Rabin’s premiership. According to this document, Israel’s clear security interests were in the West Bank, and there was no room for negotiations there. In the Gaza Strip, however, the situation was reverse.

 

In Gaza, there was no way to improve the security situation, because the IDF was not in control of the entire Strip, and there was only one division there to protect the settlers.

 

The working assumption was that as soon as the Gaza Strip is evacuated, not only could the army cut the number of troops in the area by a third, but the border itself will be calmer.

 

Furthermore, the defense establishment asserted, an IDF pullout from the Strip will give Israel the freedom to hit Gaza harder if the Palestinian Authority fails to control the rebellious organizations in the Strip.

 

2004 was the first year in which the number of Israeli casualties in Gaza was higher than in the West Bank. Hundreds of Qassam rockets were fired from the Strip, half of which fell in Sderot. In addition, some 3,000 mortar shells were fired at Jewish settlements inside the Gaza Strip and communities on the border.

 

Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade fighters (Photo: AP)
Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade fighters (Photo: AP)

 

During a situation assessment, the IDF said that following the disengagement, Hamas will have an interest to maintain the calm in Gaza. Any escalation against Hamas, the IDF believed, will happen in the West Bank or inside Israel. The belief was that after the disengagement, Hamas would view the West Bank as its center of operations, and it will have no interest to drag the IDF back into the Gaza Strip. It was enough for the IDF to defend the Gaza border properly for relative calm to be maintained.

 

All of this, of course, depended on whether or not the evacuation would go ahead as planned. For a long time, the top echelons of the army believed nothing would come out of this plan. At first, the disengagement imitative was viewed as Sharon testing the waters. Later, the army believed the plan will not go ahead because of political reasons. Maybe that is why the IDF and Shin Bet did not feel any urgency, and did not see the need to discuss the long-term processes that would happen in Gaza after the IDF withdraws. The heads of the IDF also don’t remember ever being called to a cabinet meeting on what is expected to happen in Gaza the day after the withdrawal.

 

It was only in February 2005, when the Disengagement Plan Implementation Law was passed in the Knesset, that the heads of the defense establishment realized there was no way back anymore. This was also when Ya’alon’s replacement as IDF chief was announced: Dan Halutz.

 

Prime minister Sharon with Shimon Peres during a vote on the  Disengagement Plan Implementation Law (Photo: AP)
Prime minister Sharon with Shimon Peres during a vote on the Disengagement Plan Implementation Law (Photo: AP)

 

In early February 2004, Haaretz journalist Yoel Marcus wrote about a conversation he had with Sharon in which the prime minister talked about a full disengagement from the Gaza Strip. After reading this article, chief of staff Ya’alon sent a letter to the prime minister, which was followed by a tense meeting between the two. Ya’alon complained that the army was not included, that there was no administrative work done, and that all of this was unacceptable. Sharon blew him off, and promised to have a meeting on the topic as soon as possible.

 

It happened two months later. Prime minister Sharon, defense minister Mofaz, chief of staff Ya’alon, Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter, Planning Directorate head Yitzhak Harel, Army Intelligence chief Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash and others were all present in the meeting. This was actually the first meeting in which the disengagement plan was formally presented and that included a discussion about the repercussions of this plan. Sharon informed those present that the evacuation of the Gaza Strip will be done within a year. This was the first real fall out between Sharon and Ya’alon. The chief of staff claimed withdrawing from the Gaza Strip when Islamist groups were on the defensive internationally was a fatal error that could change this trend.

 

Several weeks after that discussion, the defense minister and chief of staff received a document from GOC Southern Command Dan Harel titled “Hamastan in Gaza.” The document, which analyzed the security developments that are expected in the Gaza Strip following the disengagement, raised the possibility that Hamas would take over the Strip and that the disengagement would not lead to the long sought for calm. An argument broke out in the General Staff, and the Southern Command received response documents from Army Intelligence which rejected that thesis.

 

Ismail Haniyeh celebrating 27 years to Hamas (Photo: AFP)
Ismail Haniyeh celebrating 27 years to Hamas (Photo: AFP)

 

The Southern Command officers who wrote the document now admit that it did not include a clear prediction that Hamas would take over Gaza in a military campaign, and that the Strip will turn into a main center of fighting against Israel. The concept of “Hamastan” was included in the military discussion, but the document ended up becoming an episode that changed nothing. No one doubted the fact the Southern Command would execute any order it received.

 

During a government meeting in June 2004, the heads of Israel’s intelligence community estimated that the move would improve the security situation in the south. Army Intelligence chief Ze’evi-Farkash said at that meeting that “The disengagement will decrease terrorism and make it bearable.”

 

Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter predicted the unilateral move “will lead to a decrease in the number terrorist attacks and change their pattern.”

 

Another argument that arose later was whether to evacuate the Gaza Strip but leave IDF presence along the Philadelphi Route on the Egyptian border to strop smuggling, as well as leaving the northern border settlements Nisanit, Dugit and Elei Sinai. In both cases, it was decided to withdraw. The decision on the Philadelphi Route was made a day before the beginning of the evacuation in August 2005. Sharon was against it, but the legal advisers explained to him he could not announce a pullout from the Strip while remaining in Philadelphi.

 

Israel knew of at least ten tunnels on the eve of the disengagement (Photo: Reters)
Israel knew of at least ten tunnels on the eve of the disengagement (Photo: Reters)

 

Back then, even before the disengagement, Army Intelligence had information about tunnels that were being dug near IDF posts on the Gaza border. Military reporters were specifically told in briefings that this trend was growing and that there was digging in the direction of Hoover’s Axis, which surrounds the Gaza Strip. Shortly before the disengagement, Israeli officials estimated there were over ten tunnels in front of Hoover’s Axis. Less than a year after the disengagement, Gilad Shalit was kidnapped through one of these tunnels.

 

Work accident

The IDF completed the evacuation of the Gaza Strip on September 11, 2005. On September 23, Hamas held a “victory parade” at the Jabalia refugee camp, during which a Qassam rocket fell off a vehicle, blew up in the crowds and caused secondary explosions of ammunition and other weapons. Over 20 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured.

 

Even though this was a work accident, Hamas blamed Israel and vowed revenge. That very night, less than a week after the end of the disengagement, a heavy barrage of rockets was fired at Sderot and the rocket fire did not stop for two days.

 

Work accident: Qassam rocket fell off moving vehicle and exploded in the crowds (Photo: Reuters)
Work accident: Qassam rocket fell off moving vehicle and exploded in the crowds (Photo: Reuters)

 

The IDF responded late, in what was code-named “Operation First Rain,” and included mostly airstrikes. The government was criticized for avoiding a significant response.

 

All of this did not make Israeli security officials, including the Shin Bet, change their situation assessment from the eve of the disengagement. Two months after the end of the disengagement, in November 2005, G., the head of the Shin Bet’s southern district, said in a private conversation that “so long as we encourage Abbas’ rule, we don’t perceive the smuggling of weapons into the Palestinian Authority as a threat … the control over the Philadelphi Route collapsed when Israel withdrew, now the situation is stabilizing, even though there are incidents of bribes given to both Palestinian officers and to Egypt.”

Ten years to disengagement
10 years on, Hamas uses Gush Katif as training grounds / Yossi Yehoshua
Islamist organization self-produces and tests rockets where Israeli settlements once stood; this is also where its fighters practice how to infiltrate Israel and kidnap soldiers.
Read full story

 

What bothered the Shin Bet at the time was terrorists leaving Gaza through the Sinai Peninsula to commit attacks in the Negev, and the concern the Palestinians move their terror activity from Gaza to the West Bank.

 

That month, the incoming GOC Southern Command, Yoav Galant, told military reporters: “Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza did not significantly change the balance of power inside the Gaza Strip. The withdrawal from the Philadelphi Route created a situation of a less moderate border than Israel initially estimated. Hamas took 55 percent of the votes in municipal elections in the Gaza Strip and shocked Fatah. The belief is that Hamas will be included in the political system, but that this is a self-disciplined organization and the decision to take over the Strip is not one made by Hamas’ military wing.”

 

'Decision to take over the Strip is not made by Hamas' military wing' (Photo: AP)
‘Decision to take over the Strip is not made by Hamas’ military wing’ (Photo: AP)

 

In February 2007, a year and a half after the disengagement, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin spoke of the passing year. He spoke about the disintegration of the Palestinian Authority, mostly in Gaza, and about Fatah’s war for survival, which he believed will motivate its people to fight.

 

And then he also determined: “Hamas is interested in calm. For Hamas, a government is not the main thing. Hamas is incapable of governing.”

 

He went on to say that “We don’t have a proper response to the steep-trajectory rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. If it continues and there is no Palestinian group to stop it, Israel will be forced to go back into the Gaza Strip. At the moment, there’s no room for Israel to intervene, as Fatah is still the dominant group against the fundamentalists and we shouldn’t get in the way.”

 

'Hamas is interested in calm' (Photo: EPA)
‘Hamas is interested in calm’ (Photo: EPA)

 

In the same briefing, the Shin Bet chief said that in 2006, Hamas smuggled 30 tons of explosives through the tunnels along the Philadelphi Route – compared to 5 tons of working explosives in 2005 and only one ton in 2004.

 

Less than four months after the Shin Bet’s prediction, the very same Hamas, that “doesn’t want to take power,” forcibly took over the Gaza Strip, ousted the Palestinian Authority and formed a government.

 

Even on the day the military coup in Gaza started – June 12, 2007 – the Shin Bet’s research division estimated this was a violent outburst caused by the tensions between Hamas and Fatah, not something that would lead to Hamas’ military wing seizing power.

 

Even before the disengagement, Israeli officials realized Fatah was slowly losing control while Hamas was only growing stronger in Gaza. But no on predicted Hamas’ full takeover of Gaza and the Strip becoming a central threat to Israel. Even chief of staff Ya’alon, who believed the disengagement was a mistake, estimated in 2004 that the State of Israel was facing a strategic turn in its ties with the Palestinians: Arafat was dead, a new Palestinian president who opposes terrorism was appointed, the US was facing elections and there was an Israeli plan for a disengagement – so Abbas needed to be bolstered and allowed to take over the Strip.

 

Fatah lost control over Gaza (Photo: Reuters)
Fatah lost control over Gaza (Photo: Reuters)

 

Even Sharon thought Israel should help Abbas take over Gaza, and he even met with him. In a briefing with reporters in February 2005, Sharon said: “I am not a diplomat, I’m a farmer, and I won’t leave anything unclear. We need to help Abbas. I said I was ready to help him and I’m helping him. We helped him during Arafat’s illness and burial and during the elections.”

 

At the end of the day, the disengagement was a political-diplomatic move. Sharon was willing to take security risks and that is why the IDF was only included in the execution and not in the decision-making process. The top military echelons quickly toed the line and provided the political leadership with the “right” security reasoning. The authority Maj.-Gen. (res.) Sharon had in matters of security was crucial.

 

The inability of Israel’s security forces to correctly assess the diplomatic and military developments that would occur in the Strip after the disengagement should not surprise anyone. Army Intelligence has a built-in handicap in their ability to predict major social or diplomatic processes. Army Intelligence could never replace the cabinet, prime minister and defense minister’s experience and thinking process. On the eve of the disengagement, Army Intelligence was not required to provide – nor did it – any strategic warning on the possibility of a terror entity rising to power in Gaza.

 

Since the establishment of that Hamastan in Gaza, it forced a continuous unrest on Israel, international de-legitimization, enormous investment of money and resources, and, above all, four large-scale military operations. Hamas’ military capabilities can reach north of the Tel Aviv area now, and the group continues growing stronger. Gaza has turned into a real front, which will occupy large IDF forces even during confrontations on other fronts, like Lebanon.

 

 

Iraq Residents: ‘We Know America is Providing ISIS with Weapons & Food’

June 27, 2015

Iraq Residents: ‘We Know America is Providing ISIS with Weapons & Food’

“We now think ISIS is being used as a tool by America to divide and weaken Iraq”

via » Iraq Residents: ‘We Know America is Providing ISIS with Weapons & Food’ Alex Jones’ Infowars: There’s a war on for your mind!.

Wall Street Journal

 

The people of Iraq are increasingly blaming the United States for the spread of ISIS in their country, a Wall Street Journal report reveals.

While interviewing Iraqi refugees in a tent city in Baghdad, journalist Yaroslav Trofimov discovered that a growing number of residents believe ISIS is receiving direct support from the American government.

“We all know that America is providing ISIS with weapons and food, and that it is because of American backing that they have become so strong,” said Abbas Hashem, a 50-year-old who recently fled Ramadi.

Others, such as prominent lawmaker Alia Nusseif, made equally striking comments, accusing the US of using ISIS as a proxy army to split up the country.

“We don’t have any trust in Americans anymore,” Nusseif said. “We now think ISIS is being used as a tool by America to divide and weaken Iraq.”

Sabah Karhout, chairman of the Anbar Provincial Council, stated that America’s shockingly “shy” role towards ISIS has been disastrous for opposition groups.

“If you want to help someone, do it with strength to achieve results, not with drip-drip-drip as if you expect them to die anyway,” said Karhout. “The Americans are playing a very shy role—and if this American support had not been so shy, the Sunni tribes would not have gone over to the side of ISIS.”

In response to the comments, the Wall Street Journal alleged that “such conspiracy theories about America’s support for Islamic State are outlandish, no doubt,” a statement that ignores key points regarding the continued rise of ISIS.

Declassified Pentagon documents recently obtained by political watchdog Judicial Watch revealed that the US has deliberately supported al-Qaeda and other radical groups in an attempt to destabilize Syria.

As noted by Insurge Intelligence writer Nafeez Ahmed, the US went forward with the policy despite admittedly knowing it would lead to the rise of ISIS and the fall of Iraq.

“According to the newly declassified US document, the Pentagon foresaw the likely rise of the ‘Islamic State’ as a direct consequence of this strategy, and warned that it could destabilize Iraq,” Ahmed wrote. “Despite anticipating that Western, Gulf state and Turkish support for the ‘Syrian opposition’ — which included al-Qaeda in Iraq — could lead to the emergence of an ‘Islamic State’ in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the document provides no indication of any decision to reverse the policy of support to the Syrian rebels.”

Since the secret 2012 report was written, the Obama administration has continued its support of so-called “rebel” groups despite their admitted ties with ISIS.

Just last September, a commander with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a group deemed “moderate” by the President, admitted to cooperating with multiple terrorist groups including ISIS.

“We are collaborating with the Islamic State and the Nusra Front by attacking the Syrian Army’s gatherings in… Qalamoun,” Bassel Idriss, an FSA commander, told the Daily Star.

In July of 2014, “several factions within the FSA” openly gave their US-supplied weapons to ISIS shortly after pledging allegiance to the group.

An ISIS fighter speaking with Al-Jazeera the year prior confirmed that the FSA would regularly donate or sell their weapons after reciving shipments from the US, a well-known issue ignored by the Obama administration and supporters of the Syrian war.

“We are buying weapons from the FSA,” Abu Atheer said. “We bought 200 anti-aircraft missiles and Koncourse anti tank weapons. We have good relations with our brothers in the FSA.”

One of the most troubling aspects for Iraqis has also been the repeated US weapons airdrops to ISIS fighters, a continuous mistake according to US officials.

The Obama administration’s transparent support of radical extremists in the region, a move aimed solely at toppling the Assad government, has even lead to a drop in ISIS’ recruitment numbers, causing ISIS leaders to demand potential jihadists ignore “sinful” conspiracies.

US troops also protested the arming of terror groups in 2013 by posting photos of themselves online holding up signs stating they would not fight on the same side as terrorists in Syria.

Unsurprisingly, this endlessly-documented issue is mainly deemed conspiratorial by mainstream news outlets, ISIS recruiters and corrupt elements of Western intelligence.

The Danger of a New Arms Race in Europe versus Russia

June 27, 2015

Cold War Resurgent: US Nukes Could Soon Return to Europe

Washington is once again talking about stationing nuclear warheads in Europe. Russia, too, is turning up the rhetoric. Europeans are concerned about becoming caught in the middle of a new Cold War. By SPIEGEL Staff

via The Danger of a New Arms Race in Europe versus Russia – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

 

It’s been more than three decades since the vast peace protests took over Bonn’s Hofgarten meadow in the early 1980s. Back then, about half a million protesters pushed their way into the city center, a kilometer-long mass of people moving through the streets. It was the biggest rally in the history of the German Federal Republic.

Today, the situation isn’t quite that fraught, but it seems feasible that a similar scene may soon play out in front of the Chancellery in Berlin. For some time now, the Americans have once again been thinking about upgrading Europe’s nuclear arsenal, and in the past week, a rhetorical arms race has begun that is reminiscent of the coldest periods of the Cold War.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned of an “accelerating spiral of escalating words and then of actions.” He described them as “the old reflexes of the Cold War.”

Berlin is concerned that Europe could once again become the setting of a new East-West confrontation — and that Germany might once again become a deployment zone. A source in the Defense Ministry suggested that “more (military) equipment may once again be stockpiled in Germany.” Washington plans to station tanks, weapons and heavy equipment for 5,000 soldiers in Germany and the eastern NATO countries. US President Barack Obama hopes that doing so will soothe the fears of the Baltic States and countries in Eastern Europe, which, since the Ukraine crisis, are once again fearful of Russian aggression. He also hopes to quiet his critics in US Congress.

For German Chancellor Angela Merkel, this prospect is not a pleasant one. She shies away from publicly criticizing her American allies, but Merkel is loathe to do anything that might heat up the conflict with Moscow. Furthermore, a new debate on rearmament would hardly be winnable on a domestic front. The chancellor would potentially look like a puppet of the United States, one who not only allows herself to be spied on, but who also stands by as her carefully established link to Putin is damaged.

Avoiding Open Disagreement

Moscow sees the American plans as a further proof that Washington intends to expand its military sphere of influence in Europe. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s spokesman has said that “Washington and its partners are clearly aiming for the final break-up of the NATO-Russia Founding Act.”

Berlin, however, does not want to abandon the treaty. Consistent with the treaty, the German government has fundamentally ruled out the “substantial” or “permanent” stationing of NATO troops in the former Eastern Bloc. That wording was chosen to assuage Russian concerns about NATO’s eastward expansion.

The US plans appear designed with an eye toward avoiding an open disagreement. That is why Washington only intends to send a few companies to the border nations, say sources at NATO headquarters in Brussels. The larger part of the brigade will be initially stationed in Grafenwöhr, in the German region of Upper Palatinate. The same is apparently true of the heavy weaponry. The Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, estimates that it will include approximately 100 battle tanks. The German Defense Ministry believes that US Defense Minister Ashton Carter will be discussing the details with German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen during his visit on Monday.

Still, many NATO member states are critical of the plans, particularly in Western Europe. Internally, some are warning against escalating the conflict with Russia. Stationing weapons in Europe is not characteristic of “an exit strategy,” said Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel on Tuesday during a visit to Berlin.

The new US plans are only the latest step in an overall period of rearmament, a dangerous development that had already started before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. Washington and Moscow have cancelled or undermined one disarmament treaty after another. The end of the Cold War saw the signing of a number of far-reaching agreements pertaining to conventional and nuclear disarmament, from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. But now, the agreements, some of which took decades to hammer out, are losing their value. “Moscow no longer believes the West and the West doesn’t believe Moscow. That’s terrible,” declared Mikhail Gorbachev told SPIEGEL in January. “If one side loses its nerves in this inflamed atmosphere, then we won’t survive the coming years,” he said.

Wild Threats

At issue are longer just conventional weapons, but also nuclear arms as well. Moscow is working on modernizing its nuclear arsenal, and has issued some wild threats. A high-ranking official in the Russian Foreign Ministry spoke in March about possibly stationing nuclear weapons in Crimea. And the Americans, too, are considering expanding their nuclear arsenal in Europe. For some time now, Washington has been thinking about positioning nuclear-equipped cruise missiles in Europe, as it did in 1979 during the NATO Double-Track decision that led the trans-Atlantic alliance into the worst crisis in its history.

The American logic is as follows: For some time now, Washington has been accusing Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The legendary agreement, which was signed by US President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, signaled the end of the Cold War. In the agreement, both superpowers agreed to scrap all land-based intermediate-range atomic weapons and to renounce them in the future. Now Washington believes this treaty has been violated, and is threatening to react. NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Philip Breedlove has already announced that the introduction of a weapon that violates the INF Treaty “can’t go unanswered.”

“We would like Russia, and our Allies, to know that our patience is not unlimited,” said Frank Rose, who is in charge of arms control at the State Department, a few weeks ago. And Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon Brian Mckeon announced that Washington would develop a response to safeguard the security interests of the United States and its allies and that such a response would involve the stationing of land-based cruise missiles in Europe.

In Europe, these considerations are being viewed critically. When the Americans placed the subject on the agenda of the NATO defense ministers meeting in February, the Germans and the French spoke out against NATO retaliatory measures, not least because there was only shaky proof of what weapons the Russians had actually tested.

The allies are having trouble evaluating whether Moscow actually has violated the INF Treaty, which the Russians vehemently deny. Although none of the European intelligence services have better surveillance capabilities than the Americans, nobody wants to rely purely on US findings. It has become known that Washington is particularly concerned about the R-500 cruise missile, with an estimated range of 500 kilometers, and the RS-26 ballistic missile, which could threaten the entire NATO territory. The US believes that both have been tested in a manner that violates the INF Treaty.

Casting Doubt

The Europeans don’t think that’s necessarily the case. Members of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group concluded during the last ministers meeting that the refurbishment planned by Moscow does not violate any treaty. Weapons expert Oliver Meier, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, also doubts the US claims: “The RS-26 definitely does not violate the INF Treaty,” he says.

But President Obama is under enormous pressure from Congress, wiht lawmakers accusing Obama of being far too willing to give in to Putin. During a hearing several months ago, a number of representatives repeatedly interrupted Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller.

But Moscow too is increasly casting doubt on the INF Treaty. “It is only a scrap of paper,” says military expert Victor Murachovski. “If NATO planes can now already reach Saint Petersburg in five minutes from Estonia, and NATO warships are cruising around the Baltic Sea and Black Sea, then this agreement is worthless for Russia.”

In German military circles, though, people are interpreting the Russian saber-rattling as a sign of weakness. Unlike during the Cold War, the Russians do not have as many conventional weapons as NATO. In response, Moscow — like the West during the Cold War — intends to rely on nuclear deterrence.

The Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, currently does “not see any substantial change to the danger” posed by Russia. The nuclear threats by Moscow — Putin announced his intention to acquire 40 intercontinental missiles — were described by BND Vice-President Guido Müller, in a secret meeting in front of select lawmakers, as little more than a “propaganda show.”

According to Müller, the refurbishment plans are well known. Since a speech by Putin at the end of 2014, the upgrade has been seen as a fait accompli by the German intelligence agency. But analysts at the BND believe the chances of success are not high: Purely from a technical standpoint, the modernization of the 40 nuclear warheads in such a short period of time is hardly possible, the BND vice-president said. Russia experts at the BND describe it as “passive aggressive behavior.” What’s important to Putin is its effect on his opponent, not the degree to which his statements are true.

‘A Great Deal of Concern’

For the German government, the prospect of nuclear rearmament would be a nightmare. In the early 1980s, millions of people in Germany, as well as in Italy and the Netherlands, took to the streets because they feared a nuclear war in Europe. As an answer to the Soviet SS-20 nuclear missiles, the Western allies had provided Moscow with a proposal: They were prepared to negotiate about the disarmament of these types of systems, but if the Soviet side wasn’t prepared to compromise, the West would station about 600 nuclear missiles on its side. And that’s exactly what happened.

For the German government, even the discussion about intermediate-range missiles is touchy. A huge majority of Germans don’t want new American nuclear weapons in Europe. On the contrary, they would prefer to see the last American B-61 atomic bombs stored near Büchel, in western Germany, removed.

The Social Democrats in particular remember the Nato Double-Track Decision with horror. It indirectly cost Chancellor Helmut Schmidt his office in 1982, and led the SPD to the precipice of division. It also contributed significantly to the rise of the Green Party. A new rearmament would test the party’s ability to stay together, and also erase all chance of a new coalition with the Green Party for the foreseeable future. Rolf Mützenich, deputy floor leader of the SPD in German parliament, is watching developments with “a great deal of concern.”

At the end of the 1970s, NATO’s armament plans were tied to an offer of dialogue. Today too, the West is emphasizing the need to remain in talks with Putin, but the venues that existed for such dialogue before Ukraine crisis, like the G-8 and the Nato-Russia Council, have all been put on ice. For this reason, Green politician Jürgen Trittin is pushing the German government to immediately begin an initiative to revive the Nato-Russia Council. “We are experiencing a dynamic that can quickly lead to a real arms race,” the senior Green Party member warns. Measures need to be put into place, he believes, to interrupt the “tit-for-tat” spiral. For this, the Nato-Russia Council would once again need to become a “site of dialogue.” What’s needed at the moment, he argues, is “talking instead of arming.”

Reported by Florian Gathmann, Matthias Gebauer, Christiane Hoffmann, Gordon Repinski, Matthias Schepp, Christoph Schult and Klaus Wiegrefe