WarSclerotic

After the State of Israel buried two IDF soldiers and a newborn baby who was murdered before even being granted the right to live, the Israeli military is preparing for more violence.

The question remains, who stands behind the recent escalation? According to a recent report in Yedioth Ahronoth, Hamas, an Iranian proxy, stands behind the recent spike of violence in Judea and Samaria. And according to Palestinian dissident Mudar Zahran, Iran used the Gazan terror groups to lash out at Israel because the Islamic republic needs a diversion from its present predicament due to the increased U.S. sanctions. The question remains, why does Iran seek to target Israel now when Israel just permitted Qatar to transfer $15 million to Hamas?

Iran has suffered immensely from the recent U.S.-imposed sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund, in the wake of the latest U.S. sanctions, GDP growth in Iran will be -1.5% for 2018. In addition, the IMF projects that the sanctions will cause 40% inflation and a 1.3% increase in unemployment this year. Although eight countries were exempted from Iran’s sanctions on humanitarian grounds, these exemptions are only temporary and would be subject to an immediate reduction of 40% to 50% of Iran’s oil purchase. While all of these statistics are unlikely to hinder Iran from continuing to support both Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Al Arabiya noted that Iran is still hurting, prompting the regime to engage in increasingly repressive measures against their own people and to take further action against Israel.

According to Iranian political theorist Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, “The Iranian regime always exploits Israel’s security weaknesses as a bargaining chip with the U.S. That is why it needs a foothold close to Israel. Whenever the Iranian regime is under pressure from the U.S., it tightens the screws on Israel so the U.S. relents. In the months leading up to the new round of sanctions, Iran was openly threatening Israel with retaliation and annihilation. Abbas Araghchi, the political deputy of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, threatened European countries with terrorism and security problems if they would not try harder to ease the U.S. sanctions. The same thing is with Israel. As soon as the [Iranian] regime is under pressure, it incites Hamas and Islamic Jihad to open fire on Israel. It has probably kept Hezbollah for the next phase of the escalation.”

Mendi Safadi, who heads the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy, Research, Public Relations and Human Rights, added, “After Iran took control of Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, it is working to take over Gaza and the Palestinian Authority. It is pouring in a lot of money in order to keep the flames on fire in Gaza and in order to spread it to the PA.” The Gazan terror groups have ample reason to pay attention to instructions given to them by the Iranian regime. According to a Palestinian source, the Iranians are very influential with most of the terror groups in Gaza especially when their paychecks come in.

According to Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, “The Iranians paid for the Gaza protests and the arson attacks which they did in our fields, groves and forests. They were behind the kite and balloon terror. They also paid for the Qassam rockets. They sponsored the development of rockets that could surpass the capabilities of Iron Dome.” A press release put out by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terror Information Center found that when a Gazan anti-tank Kornet missile hit a bus with soldiers inside of it, severely injuring one, the technology was provided by Iran. Yedioth Ahronoth has reported that Iran transfers $100 million per year to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Both terror groups use the Iranian money to prepare for war against Israel instead of helping their own civilian populations.

According to a Palestinian source, Hamas ultimately agreed to a cease-fire only because it was threatened by Egypt: “It wouldn’t be the Israelis who would wipe Gaza out.” Given this, Hamas is not entirely committed to the cease-fire. Therefore, according to Safadi, even after Hamas agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza, it continues to incite young people and to seek an escalation of violence in Judea and Samaria so that it can justify the funds that it receives from its Iranian masters. Iran wants Israel to suffer particularly to avenge for the suffering that the U.S. has inflicted on the Iranian regime: “Hamas is not acting on its own but is directed by external elements that dictate the agenda.”

By escalating the violence in Judea and Samaria, Iran seeks to sabotage any potential U.S. peace plan before it has a chance to get off the ground. Therefore, Zahran claims that the recent violence that Israel has experienced has everything to do with changes that are happening in the region and the motivation behind it is to provoke Israel into declaring a total war – a trap that, so far, Israel has not fallen for. Given this, Israel can expect more violence in the immediate future.

Consult a map of the Middle East. Locate the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea passage separating the Arabian Peninsula from Iran, and connecting the Gulf – whether you call it the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf is a thorny question – to the open oceans beyond.

The Strait of Hormuz is among the world’s most strategic waterways, essential to the health of the global economy. More than a third of seaborne oil shipments and 20 percent of the oil traded internationally pass through it.

The U.S. Navy – specifically the Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet – keeps this sea lane open, frustrating Iran’s rulers who claim it as their private lap pool. They menace American vessels there – though less frequently since Donald Trump replaced Barack Obama in the White House.

Look at the map again. Locate Bab el-Mandeb, another strategic strait. It separates Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula from Africa and guards the entrance to the Red Sea at the northern end of which is the Suez Canal, also a vital chokepoint. Iran’s rulers covet Bab el-Mandeb as well.

Their maritime goals support their hegemonic ambitions. The last thing American leaders should do is help them. Yet a bipartisan majority of senators is working on a resolution that would do exactly that by withdrawing U.S. military assistance to the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

How did this come about? On October 2, Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident who for two years had been contributing opinion columns to The Washington Post, was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

The Saudi government has charged 11 individuals in connection with the killing. The Trump administration has sanctioned 17 persons thought to be implicated.

Many members of Congress regard that as woefully insufficient. They believe, as does the CIA, that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, ordered the hit – or at least that the buck stops on his desk, or throne or yacht or wherever.

Fair enough but let me state what ought to be obvious: To punish Saudi royals by rewarding Iranian ayatollahs makes no sense.

It is not in the U.S. national interest for the Houthis to prevail in Yemen, thereby allowing Iran’s rulers to expand their empire, threaten Saudi Arabia’s southern underbelly (from which the Houthis already fire missiles at Riyadh), and station forces adjacent to Bab el-Mandeb.

Consider what’s happened in this region over the last few years: Lebanon, for all intents and purposes, is ruled by Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy.  Iranian military forces and mercenary militias have propped up Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Iranian influence in Baghdad has increased since Obama withdrew American troops in 2011. The clerical regime works closely with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

Anyone with a lick of sense understands why preventing the Islamic State group from establishing a Middle Eastern caliphate is in the American national interest.  How many licks does it take to grasp that it’s no less imperative to prevent the Islamic republic from achieving the same objective (though the preferable Shia term would be imamate)?

The royal families who rule the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain harbor no illusions about the threat Tehran poses to them. That has been made abundantly clear in conversations I’ve had over recent days with senior officials in both countries, including top officers in the UAE military whose troops are fighting in Yemen.

Commanders with the U.S. Fifth Fleet also made plain why it’s essential to contain – if not roll back – the imperialist and avowedly jihadist Islamic Republic of Iran.

The conflict in Yemen has been devastating for the civilian population. A negotiated solution would be welcome. But the Houthis chant, “Death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam,” and according to an Associated Press investigation practice “extreme torture” – including hanging victims “from chains by their wrists or genitals for weeks at a time.”

We may safely conclude that these are not exactly let’s-make-a-deal kind of guys. Can anyone seriously believe that they will be more amenable to compromise if the military pressure on them is eased?

House members, before deciding whether to support whatever resolution the Senate passes, would be well-advised to spend a few minutes studying a map of the Middle East and thinking about what it will mean if the region falls under the boot heel of an oil-rich, jihadist theocracy that intends to become nuclear-armed. (Obama’s deal with Tehran was meant only to delay, not prevent that eventuality.)

There are other ways to punish the Saudis. Or perhaps a better idea: Use this crisis instead to press the Saudis for serious reforms.

Final point: Despots kill dissidents. Always have. Always will.

More than 10 critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin have died in suspicious circumstances. There has been a string of recent Iranian terrorist plots in Europe. And let’s not forget the foiled 2011 Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in a Georgetown restaurant. Meanwhile, both Iran’s rulers and Putin share culpability with Assad for the slaughter of half a million men, women and children in Syria.

In these and many other instances, the so-called international community responded fecklessly. It would not be surprising if the 33-year-old crown prince – who though wealthy and powerful is by no means worldly – had expected the killing of Khashoggi to be treated with similar indifference.