WarSclerotic

 Victory over “terrorism” is almost at hand after more than seven years of civil war in Syria and “occupation” forces from the U.S., France and Turkey must leave immediately, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem told world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly on Saturday.

Al-Muallem said the situation on the ground “is more stable and secure thanks to combatting terrorism” and “all conditions are now present for the voluntary return of refugees.”

President Bashar Assad’s government refers to all armed opposition and rebel groups fighting Syrian forces as “terrorists,” not just Islamic State or al-Qaida terrorists. Syrian government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, have retaken most of the territory seized by rebels during the war, which has killed over 400,000 people and driven millions from their homes.

Last week, Russia and Turkey agreed to a deal that stopped an imminent Syrian government offensive to retake the last major rebel stronghold, in the northern province of Idlib. It calls for setting up a demilitarized zone around Idlib to separate government forces from rebels, including those from the al-Qaida-linked group formerly known as the Nusra Front.

“We hope that when the agreement is implemented, the Nusra Front and other terrorists will be eradicated, thus eliminating the last remnants of terrorism in Syria,” al-Muallem said.

He offered no evidence to back up his assertion that victory was near.

There was no response to emails seeking comment from the U.S., France and Turkey.

In his upbeat speech, al-Muallem praised the army and the Syrian people for remaining “defiant” during the war, “fully convinced that this was a battle for their existence.” He bashed Western and other countries for supporting the opposition, alluding to their failed effort to install a transition government and get rid of Assad.

“To the disappointment of some, here we are today, more than seven years into this dirty war against my country, announcing to the world that the situation on the ground has become more secure and stable, and that our battle against terrorism is almost over,” al-Muallem said.

“It is high time for all those detached from reality to wake up, let go of their fantasies, and come to their senses, see matters realistically. They must realize they will not achieve politically what they failed to achieve by force.”

While Turkey confronts the difficult task of trying to separate the forces in Idlib, the U.N. envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, is trying to bring the warring parties together to move forward on long-stalled political talks aimed at ending the war.

De Mistura is hoping to convene the first meeting of a committee to reform the country’s constitution, a key step in a 2012 roadmap adopted by world powers that is to culminate with elections and the formation of a new government. He told The Associated Press this week that October will be crucial.

Al-Muallem’s speech signaled difficulties ahead in the negotiations, as he indicated that Syria does not want a new constitution.

“We stress that the mandate of the committee is limited to reviewing the articles of the current constitution,” he said.

He added that Syria “will not accept any proposal that constitutes an interference in internal affairs of Syria, or leads to such interference.”

The United States, aided by Syrian Kurdish-led fighters, helped rout the Islamic State extremist group from all urban areas in Syria, but U.S. forces remain in the country because pockets of IS militants remain. Turkey says it is fighting IS but is also seeking to curb the spread of the Syrian Kurdish militia, which it considers “terrorists.”

“Any foreign presence on Syrian territory without the consent of the Syrian government is illegal and constitutes a flagrant violation of international law and the U.N. Charter,” al-Muallem said.

“We therefore consider any forces operating on Syrian territory without an explicit request from the Syrian government, including U.S., French and Turkish forces, occupying forces and [they] will be dealt with accordingly. They must withdraw immediately and without any conditions.”

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Friday and told him she believes the Palestinians are responsible for stalling the diplomatic process and that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas should return to the negotiating table.

“We believe that the Palestinians are going to have come to the table. President Abbas is not helping the Palestinian people at all. He hasn’t acknowledged Hamas,” Haley said.

“The Palestinians, if they want to blame anyone, it shouldn’t be Israel. They should be looking at President Abbas and saying, ‘What are you doing for us?'”

Haley also made it clear she had no plans to meet with Abbas, who was also in New York for the General Assembly.

Netanyahu thanked Haley for her efforts in condemning Hamas during a General Assembly vote over events in the Gaza Strip in June.

“I said yesterday that the U.N. hall is still full of anti-Israel resolutions, but when you are at the U.N., the situation is better and I want to thank you for clearing the air out of that hall,” Netanyahu told Haley.

He added that Haley’s and President Donald Trump’s work with regard to the UNWRA and UNESCO agencies was “amazing.”

Haley responded by saying, “The support is very moving. It’s nice that our little work here is being noticed.”

In an interview with CNN over the weekend, speaking in the wake of Trump’s comments last week endorsing a two-state solution, Netanyahu reiterated that Israel would not commit to a two-state solution.

“I’ve discovered that, if you use labels, you’re not going to get very far because different people mean different things when they say ‘states.’ So rather than talk about labels, I’d like to talk about substance,” Netanyahu said.

“People say, ‘Was that [Trump’s statement] commensurate with a state?’ I don’t know, you decide. … I want the Palestinians to govern themselves, but not to be able to threaten us,” he said.

Netanyahu said the important questions are who would control a Palestinian state and whether it would truly be demilitarized with “none of the powers to threaten us.”

“Israel has to have the overriding security, not the U.N., not Canadian Mounties, not – I don’t know – Austrian or Australian forces. Israeli forces have to have the security control, otherwise that place will be taken over by Islamist terrorists, either Daesh, ISIS or Hamas or Iran, all of the above,” Netanyahu said. “And that’s my condition.”

Asked if Israel would have to make large concessions because of the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Netanyahu indicated that he had not yet seen Trump’s Middle East peace plan.

“I’m certainly going to look at it and look at it … with a keen and open mind, because I know there’s great friendship to Israel. I always said that I’m willing to look at peace proposals put forward by the United States,” he said.

Netanyahu also touched on Iran, saying the Trump administration’s policy to increase pressure on the Islamic republic is a step welcomed by other countries in the Middle East.

“You put growing pressure on Iran to cease its aggression in the region and its secret efforts to achieve a bypass for the nuclear program; I think that very wise,” he said. “Where you’ll end up is a different matter, but the idea is to get Iran back in the box.”

While in New York, Netanyahu also met with other world leaders, including Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Polish President Andrzej Duda, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, Belgian President Charles Michel and Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales.

Twenty-seven minutes. That is how much time passed ‎‎between the Israeli military informing the Russian ‎‎army of its plan to strike Iranian assets in the ‎‎Syrian port city of Latakia and the downing of a ‎‎Russian reconnaissance plane carrying 15 crew ‎‎members by Syrian anti-aircraft fire trying to ‎‎counter the strike. ‎

The incident, and especially ‎‎its timeline, encapsulates the issues of Israeli-‎‎Russian coordination, safety margins, Syrian ‎‎amateurism and Russian callousness, especially given that the information relayed to the ‎‎Russians through the deconfliction channel ‎‎between IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv and the ‎‎Russian command and control center at the Hmeimim ‎‎air base in Syria includes much more than just ‎‎notifications about strikes – it entails exact ‎‎times, locations and flight paths. ‎

The Russians had plenty of time to ‎‎prepare. More than 10 minutes passed between the ‎‎notification of a pending strike and the strike itself, and ‎‎15 more minutes went by before Syrian anti-aircraft fire downed the Russian plane. The Russians had plenty of time to ensure ‎‎their aircraft would be out of harm’s way and ‎‎to coordinate with the Syrian army. ‎

That was not done, and a furious Kremlin ‎‎announced plans to deploy advanced S-300 air ‎‎defense systems in Syria and give Syrian President ‎‎Bashar Assad’s forces advanced identification systems to help them better understand who is ‎‎flying in their skies. ‎

Israel was taken aback by Russia’s rage over the ‎‎incident and the overt hostility that followed. ‎

Hopes that this was a case of fake fury that would soon ‎‎pass were quickly replaced with serious concerns. Some ‎‎irresponsible lawmakers were quick to declare that ‎‎Israel should “put Russia in its place” and show it ‎‎‎”who’s the boss” in the Middle East, but the top ‎‎political and military echelons were wiser.‎

The differences between Israel and global ‎‎superpower Russia are clear, said one of the officials ‎‎who participated in the discussions. All Russia has ‎‎to do is merely suggest imposing ‎‎sanctions on anyone who trades with Israel – as the ‎‎U.S. has done to Iran – and Israel folds ‎‎immediately. ‎

Sanctions of any kind are not really an option, ‎‎as Moscow has no interest in crippling Israel. However, it ‎‎does wish to put Israel in its place and ‎‎have it follow the rules – that is, Russia’s rules in the Middle East.‎

The Kremlin was never a fan of the Israeli strikes ‎‎in Syria, not out of fear that Russian soldiers might ‎‎be hurt but out of concern that these strikes might compromise its ‎‎regional position. For the most part, however, it was willing to look the ‎‎other way.‎

Israel spares no effort to ensure no harm came to ‎‎Russian troops in Syria, but the perception is ‎‎clear: If Israel is raiding targets near Russian ‎‎forces with alleged impunity it means either ‎‎that Russia does not care or that it has no interest in ‎‎putting a stop to that. Either way, Russia looks bad. ‎

But the Russian game is wider than the Israeli-‎‎Syrian story. It is aimed at Washington. It is not ‎‎for nothing that immediately after Russian Defense ‎‎Minister Sergei Shoygu announced that Syria was ‎‎getting S-300 missiles, Foreign Minister Sergey ‎‎Lavrov announced that he was prepared to discuss the ‎‎issue with the United States.‎

The intention behind Lavrov’s statement was clear: ‎‎If American forces withdraw from Tanf in eastern ‎‎Syria, Russia will reconsider providing the Assad ‎‎regime with advanced missiles. ‎

The truth is out there

Israel may be able to influence these moves, but in ‎‎a different way than previously thought. ‎

If until the Latakia incident it was believed that ‎‎Israeli-Russian ties could ‎‎weather anything, especially given the personal ‎‎relationship between Prime Minister Benjamin ‎‎Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin and ‎‎the coordination between the two armies, recent developments have proved ‎‎that Russia prioritizes its own interests, followed by ‎‎Syria’s interests – as it wants to benefit from the ‎‎war-torn country’s economic rehabilitation – and ‎‎only then does it consider other factors, such as ‎‎Israel’s security interests. ‎

Israel must go back to the basic ‎‎assumption that the United States is the only ‎‎superpower that will provide it with security ‎‎support. Coordination with the U.S. is critical, ‎‎especially in cases in which a superpower’s back-up is required.‎

It was fascinating to observe the back-and-forth ‎‎between Jerusalem and Moscow this week, especially ‎‎regarding the chain of events that led to the ‎‎downing of the Russian plane.‎

Israel asserted that there was no connection between its strike in Syria ‎‎and the Russian plane’s downing, blaming the ‎‎Syrian anti-aircraft fire alone.

Russia would not hear of this, claiming that ‎‎this was a case of the domino effect: The Israeli raid sparked the Syrian fire that brought down the plane. Ergo, ‎‎had Israel not attacked, the plane would not have been ‎‎shot down. ‎

But the Russian theory ignores the actual catalyst: Iran’s operations in Syria.‎

Moscow is by no ‎‎means a fan of Iran’s presence in Syria, but it ‎‎simply refuses to accept any explanation that does ‎‎not hold Israel fully responsible for the incident. ‎

Syrian President Bashar Assad and the ‎‎Syrian forces, whose amateurism cost the lives of 15 ‎‎Russian crewmen, are for some reason exempt from blame in the Kremlin’s eyes. The Iranians are not to be blamed either. Everything ‎‎begins and ends with Israel.‎

This is troubling on many levels, especially with ‎‎regard to the future outlook in the region. ‎

Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi ‎‎Eizenkot have invested considerable efforts in ‎‎establishing the Israeli-Russian deconfliction ‎‎channel. For three years, this mechanism worked seamlessly, ‎‎allowing Israel to strike Syria when necessary while ‎‎getting along with the Russians.

This era is over. ‎‎All we can do now is give thanks that this did not ‎‎happen sooner and do everything to avoid a ‎‎recurrence.‎

A similar incident could occur at any time, because all ‎‎parties are literally playing with fire. ‎

As far as we know, the Israeli Air Force has not ‎‎operated in Syria since the incident, although that could ‎‎change at any moment. The Iranians, who have paused ‎‎to re-evaluate the situation, will soon resume their ‎‎military entrenchment efforts in Syria as well as ‎‎their efforts to arm Hezbollah in Lebanon, and they ‎‎may choose to do both in a way that increases the ‎‎chances of Israeli-Russian friction.‎

This means every future Israeli operation in Syria ‎will be twice as sensitive, and not just because it ‎may encounter improved Syrian defenses, potentially ‎aided by Russian jamming efforts. Even today, any ‎raid on targets in Syria is very carefully ‎scrutinized and involves the highest echelons up to ‎the prime minister, but the long string of ‎successes – over 200 strikes in two years – has naturally ‎created a perhaps excessive sense of self-‎confidence.

But no more. ‎

Still, overall, the balance is favorable. Thanks to ‎the IDF’s operations, two years after making a ‎strategic decision to cement its presence in Syria, ‎Iran has no port in Latakia and no airbase in Homs, ‎and no real bases or intelligence facilities to support its proxy militias. ‎

Along the way, the Israeli intelligence and aerial ‎mechanisms have been honed and officials from all over the world ‎travel to Israel to learn from the Israeli Air Force.‎

Israel is something of a superpower when it comes to ‎operating behind enemy lines. Everyone knows this, ‎which may also explain some of Moscow’s ire. ‎

Israel plans to share recently obtained intelligence ‎on covert Iranian nuclear activity, as well as on ‎its efforts to arm its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, ‎with several countries worldwide in an effort to ‎drive them to act against the Islamic republic.‎

Addressing the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday, ‎Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that Iran ‎was maintaining a secret warehouse holding ‎nuclear-‎related material, in violation of the 2015 deal with ‎world powers. ‎

He further lambasted Iran for its involvement in the ‎Syrian ‎civil war and its attempt to establish ‎permanent ‎military bases there from which to attack ‎Israel, as ‎well as for its funding and arming of ‎Hezbollah, presenting world leaders with evidence ‎that the latter was using ‎Iranian funding to build ‎weapon production ‎facilities in the heart of ‎Lebanese capital, ‎including near Beirut’s ‎international airport.‎ ‎

Israel Hayom learned Saturday that Israel will first ‎and foremost share the information with the other ‎signatories to the 2015 accord, namely Britain, ‎France, Germany, Russia and China, as well as with ‎the International Atomic Energy Agency.‎

This means to show them that while they insist on ‎backing the deal and look for ways to circumvent the ‎issues that arose in the wake of the U.S.’s decision ‎to withdraw from the deal in May, Iran continues to ‎deceive them and the U.N. by secretly pursuing ‎nuclear weapons.‎

Israeli intelligence has found that the facility, ‎disguised as a carpet manufacturing plant, housed ‎hardware and software directly connected to Iran’s ‎nuclear program. ‎

Western diplomats said Saturday that while this ‎information had to be brought to the IAEA’s ‎attention, it did not constitute a “smoking gun” ‎proving Iran was in violation of the nuclear deal. ‎

The decision to reveal the information at the U.N. ‎General Assembly was made after the data was ‎carefully scrutinized by the IDF and the Mossad, ‎Israel’s national intelligence agency, to ensure making it public would not compromise sensitive sources.‎

A senior political source said that Netanyahu sought ‎to have his U.N. address incriminate Iran “across ‎the board,” which led to the decision to include ‎the intelligence pertaining to Hezbollah’s weapon ‎production efforts. ‎

Israeli military intelligence has been closely ‎monitoring the Shiite terrorist group’s efforts for ‎the past year, and has already shared it with ‎several Western intelligence agencies, he said. ‎

Iranian officials dismissed Netanyahu’s claims at ‎the U.N., with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif ‎denouncing the allegations as an “obscene charge” ‎and calling the Israeli prime minister “liar who ‎would not stop lying.” ‎

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi ‎said that “the world will only laugh loudly at this ‎type of false, meaningless and unnecessary speech ‎and false shows.”‎

In Lebanon, where Hezbollah sits in the government ‎and wields considerable political power, the ‎allegations against Hezbollah prompted a heated ‎public and media debate.‎

The fact that one of the Hezbollah sites revealed is ‎located near Beirut’s international airport prompted ‎harsh criticism at the group for jeopardizing the ‎country’s tourism industry, which is one of its main ‎sources of revenue.‎

The Israeli official said that as the Lebanese ‎government it mostly powerless against the Shiite ‎terrorist group and it is unlikely that any Western ‎nations would attempt to curb its activities, the ‎Israeli policy of thwarting any Iranian attempt to ‎smuggle weapons to Hezbollah will remain in place.‎

A source in Netanyahu’s entourage to the U.N. General ‎Assembly said that Thursday’s speech has unsettled ‎the Iranians, who have been backed into a corner on ‎the issue.‎

Another source said that Netanyahu himself stressed ‎that he would not have gone forward with the ‎revelations without the support of the Israeli ‎intelligence community. ‎

Describing the speech as a “call for action,” ‎Netanyahu also noted that the fact that Iranian ‎officials “criticized the addressed, they didn’t ‎deny [the allegations], which says everything.”‎