Archive for May 2018

This Strike Could Bring Down The Mullahs In Iran, But The Mainstream Media Are Ignoring It

May 31, 2018

A courageous truck strike in Iran, now in its tenth day, is threatening to bring down the Iranian government.

By Hank Berrien May 31, 2018 via Daily Wire

Source Link:
This Strike Could Bring Down The Mullahs In Iran, But The Mainstream Media Are Ignoring It

{Wouldn’t that be something. – LS}

The truck strike started on May 22 in 25 provinces and 60 cities across Iran. And it’s not just the truck strike that is spreading unrest; other strikes have already been created:

In addition, it appears that taxi drivers have now joined the truckers in striking:

To no one’s surprise, the mainstream media, which trumpeted the Obama nuclear deal with Iran which propped up the despotic Iranian government, is not reporting news of the truck strike, but there was one major organization that was paying attention:

Report: Iranian forces, Hezbollah prepare to leave southern Syria 

May 31, 2018

Source: Report: Iranian forces, Hezbollah prepare to leave southern Syria – Middle East – Jerusalem Post

The report comes after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Monday that the Syrian army should be the only force on the southern border of the country.

BY YAMI ROTH / MAARIV
 MAY 31, 2018 18:29
Hezbollah fighters stand near military tanks in Western Qalamoun, Syria

Iran-backed forces, including Hezbollah, were preparing to withdraw from southern Syria against the backdrop of regional and international negotiations currently under way between the United States, Russia and Jordan over the war-torn country’s future, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported Thursday.

Specifically, the London-based organization reported, Iran and Hezbollah were planning to withdraw forces from the Dara and Kuneitra areas near Israel’s northern border.

The report comes after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Monday that the Syrian army should be the only force on the southern border of the country.

“All the forces that are not Syrian should withdraw, and there must be a situation in which only the forces of the Syrian army will be stationed on the Syrian side of the border with Israel,” Lavrov said.

Earlier Thursday, the Syrian opposition newspaper Zaman al-Wassul reported that a Syrian army commander had decided in recent days to prevent the use of aircraft hangars, which until now had been used to store ammunition by Iranian militias. According to the report, “the decision followed the recent Israeli attacks.”

The Syrian commander’s decision indicates the regime’s decision to demand that Iran close shop on the southern border is a first step in a broader policy of booting Iranian forces completely from Syria, according to the source in the Syrian army.

Translated by Eric Sumner.

Hamas taken off guard by intensity of clash with Israel, officials say 

May 31, 2018

Source: Hamas taken off guard by intensity of clash with Israel, officials say – Israel Hayom

Prime Minister Netanyahu: IDF dealt worst blow to Hamas in years

May 31, 2018

Source: Prime Minister Netanyahu: IDF dealt worst blow to Hamas in years – Israel Hayom

After IDF strikes dozens of terrorist targets in Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu says that when Hamas, Islamic Jihad test us, they pay immediately, and if they continue to test us, they will pay far more • Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked: All options are on the table.

How did the Mossad get the nuclear papers out of Iran?

May 31, 2018

I was reading the article below about a visit to Israel by a delegation from Azerbaijan.

I noticed the bit I have marked in bold: a theory that is circulating (and it seems a very reasonable one) on how the Mossad got the stash of nuclear papers out of Iran.

Theory is that it was transported (by truck?) to Azerbaijan then flown back to Israel.

Even more curious is that this theory (published by a paper in Kuwait) was quoted from an Israeli source. Hmmmmm…..

Anyway, I have a friend at work who is from Azerbaijan, and muslim of course. He is heavily into watching UFC fights like me, and we often catch up to watch UFC events together.

He, and his mates from Azerbaijan, are all very proud of their country’s views on Israel, and they are very supportive of Israel as well – I get along with them just fine with my pro-Israel views. I guess they like the top quality defence equipment that Israel sells them, ha ha.

But how they reconcile their views on Israel with the teachings of their religion is beyond me. I guess I will never understand.

First-Ever Delegation From Azerbaijan Visits Israel During US Embassy Opening

First-Ever Delegation From Azerbaijan Visits Israel During US Embassy Opening

On May 14, as the United States was inaugurating its new embassy in Jerusalem, senior officials from Azerbaijan visited Israel for a first-ever meeting meant to strengthen economic ties between Israel the two countries.

An Azeri delegation headed by the Azeri tax minister stayed for three days, meeting with Minister of Jerusalem Affairs and Minister of Environmental Protection Zeev Elkin on ways to promote economic, commercial and business ties.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the country in December 2016 to strengthen relations between the countries.

Azerbaijan is a major customer for Israeli weapons, having purchased nearly $5 billion in arms from the Jewish state, including radar systems and drones, which it uses in a protracted war with Armenia over control of territory.

Reports also suggest that Israel uses Azer territory to surveil neighboring Iran. The Kuwaiti paper Al-Jarida quoted an Israeli source as saying that the massive cache of Iranian documents Netanyahu recently displayed in a televised presentation on the nuclear threat of Iran were smuggled by Mossad agents to Israel through Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan provides Israel with energy, and receives high-tech, medical and agricultural supplies from Israel.

Though the country is 97 percent Muslim, it is home to approximately 12,000 Jews and to several Jewish schools, a Chabad center and a kosher restaurant in Baku, the nation’s capital and commercial hub.

 

IDF says it targeted unmanned Hamas submarines in Gaza airstrikes

May 31, 2018

Source: IDF says it targeted unmanned Hamas submarines in Gaza airstrikes | The Times of Israel

In video, military specifies 6 of 65 sites it bombed in response to repeated barrages by terror groups in the Strip

The Israeli military on Wednesday night released details on six of the more than 65 sites it bombed Tuesday in the Gaza Strip in response to rocket and mortar fire, saying one target was a collection of unmanned submarines that Hamas planned to use for sea-based terror attacks.

The Gaza-ruling terror group has been suspected of possessing remote-controlled submarines for over a year, though the Israel Defense Forces had not publicly acknowledged this capability until Wednesday.

These underwater drones could be used to attack any number of Israeli targets at sea, including natural gas drilling platforms, civilian ships and navy vessels.

Tuesday, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other assorted terror groups in the Gaza Strip fired scores of mortar shells and rockets at southern Israel over the course of 22 hours. The army said over 100 of the projectiles fired were on a trajectory to hit Israel, while many more were apparently launched but failed to clear the border.

Most of the incoming projectiles that were heading toward populated areas were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system, though several exploded inside Israeli towns and communities, causing damage to buildings and injuring four people, three of them soldiers.

In response, the army conducted two rounds of air raids in the Gaza Strip, striking more than 65 targets, including a Hamas attack tunnel, the military said.

Smoke billowing in the background following an Israeli air strike Gaza City, May 29, 2018. (THOMAS COEX/AFP)

The Israel Defense Forces listed a variety of targets hit in the raids — weapons depots, command and control centers, naval bases — but initially refrained from detailing what was struck.

On Wednesday night, the army released a video (above) more specifically identifying six of the targets.

These were: two Hamas drone facilities, one for storing drones outfitted with explosives and another a test site; a cache of shoulder-fired SA-7 missiles; a rocket manufacturing plant; a Palestinian Islamic Jihad depot for storing locally produced rockets; and the Hamas naval armory.

IDF identifies target of one of its airstrikes in Gaza as a collection of Hamas submarine drones, in a video released on May 30, 2018. (Screen capture: Israel Defense Forces)

The army said the naval armory contained “advanced, unmanned submarine vessels, capable of maritime infiltration and carrying out maritime terror attacks.”

The Israeli military has long believed that Hamas was expanding its naval capabilities, both in terms of technology like unmanned submarines and in training frogmen to infiltrate into Israeli territory from the sea and to attack Israeli vessels.

“Hamas is making serious developments in the underwater domain,” a naval officer told The Times of Israel last year.

Mohammed al-Zoari, a Tunisian expert in unmanned vehicles, was said to be constructing small, remote-controlled submarine drones for the terrorist group when he was killed by gunmen in December 2016. (The Mossad was blamed for the killing; Israel would not comment on the allegation.)

Members of the al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, display a drone during a parade marking the 27th anniversary of the Islamist movement’s creation on December 14, 2014 in Gaza City. (AFP/Mahmud Hams)

Hamas has used unmanned aerial vehicles on a number of occasions, including during the 2014 Gaza war, though they have been of limited utility.

The terror group appears to have stepped up its interest in aerial drones as the technology has gotten cheaper and easier to obtain.

Drones cannot be legally imported into Gaza, and Israel has thwarted a number of attempts to smuggle them into the coastal enclave through the Kerem Shalom Border Crossing.

However, Hamas has adopted a new tactic to get around the Israeli scanners, according to the deputy administrator of Kerem Shalom.

A drone captured by Israel en route to the Gaza Strip (Defense Ministry)

The terror group has importers in the West Bank break down the drones into their component parts and then try to transport the smaller, less detectable pieces through the crossing, he said.

Last week, Israel discovered an intact explosives-laden drone in Israel after it apparently crashed.

The army believes the drone was meant to target Israeli soldiers serving along the Gaza border. It was not immediately clear why the drone had not been used for this purpose.

The head of the IDF’s Southern Command said Wednesday that Hamas and other terror groups in the Gaza Strip were “very deeply deterred” by the air force’s bombardments.

“We struck many valuable targets, important targets that we’ve waited a long time for an opportunity [to strike them]. I think at this point, there’s a significant achievement for us,” Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir told officers on Wednesday.

Southern Command chief Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir speaks to officers in southern Israel on May 30, 2018. (Screen capture: Israel Defense Forces)

“I think Hamas and the other terror groups in the Gaza Strip are very deeply deterred, and there is a lack of will and desire to reach a situation of another full-scale campaign,” Zamir said.

Critics of the army’s actions on Tuesday and Wednesday noted that the military did not strike the terror cells firing the rockets and mortar shells at Israel. The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry did not report on any casualties in the IDF’s strikes.

Also on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military delivered the “harshest blow” in years to Gaza terrorist groups, which he said were inspired by Iran.

“Since yesterday the IDF has strongly retaliated against the firing from the Gaza Strip and has hit dozens of terrorist targets in the harshest blow we have dealt them in years,” Netanyahu said.

“The Hamas regime, Islamic Jihad and the other terrorist organizations, inspired by Iran, are responsible for the escalation,” the prime minister said. “I will not detail our plans because I do not want the enemy to know what to expect. But one thing is clear: When they test us, they pay immediately. And if they continue testing us, they will pay dearly.”

TOI staff contributed to this report.

At least 50 Taliban leaders killed in rocket artillery strike, US military says

May 31, 2018

By: Peter Reid MAY 30, 2018 via American Military News

Source Link:
At least 50 Taliban leaders killed in rocket artillery strike, US military says

{The war against the Taliban rages on with no thanks to Pakistan. – LS}

t least 50 senior Taliban leaders were killed last week in a rocket artillery strike during a meeting in Afghanistan’s Helmand province, a U.S. military official said.

“We think the meeting was to plan next steps,” said Lt. Col. Martin O’Donnell, spokesman for the U.S.-led Coalition in Afghanistan, Reuters reported.

The meeting took place in Helmand’s district of Musa Qala on May 24 and included a number of senior Taliban commanders from several Afghanistan provinces, the U.S. military said.

The strike comes amid the Taliban’s recent launch of its annual spring offensive.

“It’s certainly a notable strike,” O’Donnell continued, adding that a number of other Taliban commanders had been killed in U.S. airstrikes in a 10-day period.

The Taliban denied the report and said that only five civilians in two civilian houses were killed.

“This was a civilian residential area, which had no connection with the Taliban,” Taliban spokesman Qari Yousaf Ahmadi said in a statement.

The United States has upped military pressure against the Taliban in recent months in an effort urging Taliban leadership to enter peace talks with the Afghan government.

Last week, Army Lt. Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller was nominated by President Trump to succeed Army Gen. John Nicholson as the next commander of U.S. and Coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Since 2016, Miller has been serving as the commanding general of the Joint Special Operations Command.

Haley Rips Security Council’s ‘Outrageous’ Failure to Condemn Hamas for Rocket Attacks: ‘Height of Hypocrisy’

May 31, 2018

BY:

Haley Rips Security Council’s ‘Outrageous’ Failure to Condemn Hamas for Rocket Attacks: ‘Height of Hypocrisy’

Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley tore into the U.N. Security Council Wednesday for failing to condemn Hamas rocket attacks against Israel, calling it “outrageous” and “the height of hypocrisy.”

The U.S. called for an emergency session of the Security Council following Tuesday’s rocket attacks against Israel by Hamas, the Islamist terror group governing the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military said Hamas fired 70 rockets and mortars into Israel; one mortar hit a kindergarten yard. Israel responded with airstrikes on 35 Gaza targets.

Kuwait, a non-member state, blocked the attempt by the U.S. to have the Security Council condemn Hamas.

“It is outrageous for the Security Council to fail to condemn Hamas rocket attacks against Israeli civilians, while the Human Rights Council approves sending a team to investigate Israeli actions taken in self-defense,” Haley said. “I urge the members of the Security Council to exercise at least as much scrutiny of the Hamas terrorist group as it does to Israel’s legitimate right of self-defense.”

To ignore Hamas’ actions and expect Israel to sit on its hands while being attacked, Haley said, was “the height of hypocrisy.”

“As I have asked my colleagues before, I will ask you again today: Who among us would accept 70 rockets launched into your country?” Haley said. “We all know the answer to that. No one would.”

As she has done previously, Haley called out the U.N. for what she often describes as a clear double standard regarding Israel.

“You might think that the rest of the Security Council would join us in condemning a terrorist organization like Hamas,” Haley said. “There shouldn’t be any debate about this, but of course, because this attack is about Israel, the standard is different.”

“Apparently, some council members did not think Hamas launching rockets qualified as terrorism,” she added. “The United States begs to differ.”

Haley also forcefully defended Israel on May 15 following its response to violent riots in Gaza and attempts to breach the border, saying no country in the chamber would have acted with more restraint.

Haley called Hamas’ rocket fire on Tuesday “indiscriminate,” noting there were several injured in Israel but thankfully no deaths.

“The horrifying damage that could have been done is unthinkable,” she said.

Haley called Hamas’ attacks a clear escalation of violence with the obvious desire to cause maximum civilian casualties. The organization’s stated purpose of Israel’s destruction is clear, she said, with its rocket attacks, construction of terror tunnels and incitement of violence at the border, the latter to provoke a response from Israel and bring about a predictable international outrage.

“Hamas’ actions prove the falsehood of the idea that the people of Gaza require international protection,” Haley said. “The people of Gaza do not need protection from an external source. The people of Gaza need protection from Hamas.”

US blasts Security Council as measure condemning Hamas blocked

May 31, 2018

Kuwait says its resolution calling for protection of Palestinians is more relevant than US draft on rocket attacks; Haley calls failure to condemn ‘outrageous’

Today, 12:37 am

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-blasts-security-council-as-measure-condemning-hamas-blocked/

WASHINGTON — US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley castigated the Security Council on Wednesday for failing to collectively condemn rocket attacks on Israel, accusing the international body of bias weeks after another UN panel backed a probe into Israeli actions on the Gaza border.

Kuwait, a non-permanent council member that represents Arab countries, blocked a US-drafted statement at the council meeting Wednesday, arguing that it had presented its own draft resolution that addressed the crisis.

United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks during a UN Security Council emergency session on Israel-Gaza conflict at United Nations headquarter on May 30, 2018 in New York City. (Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images/AFP)

WASHINGTON — US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley castigated the Security Council on Wednesday for failing to collectively condemn rocket attacks on Israel, accusing the international body of bias weeks after another UN panel backed a probe into Israeli actions on the Gaza border.

Kuwait, a non-permanent council member that represents Arab countries, blocked a US-drafted statement at the council meeting Wednesday, arguing that it had presented its own draft resolution that addressed the crisis.

“It is outrageous for the Security Council to fail to condemn Hamas rocket attacks against Israeli citizens while the Human Rights Council approves sending a team to investigate Israeli actions taken in self-defense,” Haley said before the council meeting called to discuss the flare-up on the Gaza border.

WASHINGTON — US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley castigated the Security Council on Wednesday for failing to collectively condemn rocket attacks on Israel, accusing the international body of bias weeks after another UN panel backed a probe into Israeli actions on the Gaza border.

Kuwait, a non-permanent council member that represents Arab countries, blocked a US-drafted statement at the council meeting Wednesday, arguing that it had presented its own draft resolution that addressed the crisis.

“It is outrageous for the Security Council to fail to condemn Hamas rocket attacks against Israeli citizens while the Human Rights Council approves sending a team to investigate Israeli actions taken in self-defense,” Haley said before the council meeting called to discuss the flare-up on the Gaza border.

“I urge the members of the Security Council to exercise at least as much scrutiny of the actions of the Hamas terrorist group as it does Israel’s legitimate right of self-defense.”

Her remarks followed the most serious flare-up between Israel and Gaza-based terrorists since the 2014 Israel-Hamas war.

Crater outside home near Gaza border caused by rocket fired from coastal enclave on May 30, 2018. (Screen capture: Hadashot news/Eshkol Regional Council)

On Tuesday, the Gaza-based Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist groups launched more than 70 rockets and mortar shells at Israel, prompting dozens of retaliatory airstrikes. Four Israelis were hurt, including a soldier who suffered moderate injuries, and projectiles caused damage to a kindergarten yard an hour before the children arrived, and to a home as a family slept in a fortified room inside.

Kuwait is pushing for a vote at the council this week on its draft resolution calling for “the consideration of measures” for the protection of Palestinian civilians, according to the text obtained by AFP.

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes on Gaza City, early Wednesday, May 30, 2018. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip fired at least 50 rockets and mortars into southern Israel on Tuesday, the largest barrage since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

The United States, which has veto power in the council, will oppose the measure, Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters.

“The people of Gaza do not need protection from an external source. The people of Gaza need protection from Hamas,” Haley said.

The US called the emergency meeting Tuesday evening, though by Wednesday night a tense calm appeared to hold in the Strip following reported mediation efforts by Egypt.

In a briefing with reporters before the meeting, Danon warned that Israel would respond to any future attacks with whatever force needed to protect its people from terrorism.

“If Israeli children are not allowed to sleep quietly at night, then the terrorists of Gaza will feel the might of the IDF,” he said. “We will not allow anyone to harm our citizens and we will do all that is necessary to defend them.”

Tuesday’s violence was the most serious escalation since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas and followed weeks of Palestinian protests in which more than 100 Palestinians have been shot and killed by Israeli forces. Israel says a majority of those killed were from terror groups and that it was acting to defend its border from violent protesters and terror operatives seeking to infiltrate the country to carry out attacks or damage the fence. Hamas has acknowledged more than 50 of the fatalities were its members.

Earlier this month, the UN’s Human Rights Council passed a resolution urging a probe into Israeli actions on the border during the protests, angering Israel and the US, which have accused the body of being one-sided.

Palestinians burn tires along the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, east of Khan Younis, on May 25, 2018. (AFP Photo/Said Khatib)

At the Security Council meeting, the UN envoy for the Middle East peace process warned that the day of fighting showed how close the region was to another war.

“This latest round of attacks is a warning to all of how close to the brink of war we are every day,” said Mladenov, who spoke via video link from Jerusalem.

“No one in Gaza can afford another war,” said Mladenov.

With the council deadlocked, France warned that the failure to agree on a response to the Gaza crisis was damaging to the United Nations.

“This increasingly heavy silence, which is becoming deafening, is not acceptable,” said French Ambassador Francois Delattre.

“It is not acceptable for the Palestinian and Israeli populations, who are affected by this conflict. It is not acceptable for the world that is watching us,” he said.

Flames from rockets fired by Palestinians are seen over Gaza Strip heading toward Israel, in the early morning of May 30, 2018. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

Haley expressed frustration that the council could not agree on condemning the rocket attacks on Israel, and accused Hamas of trying to goad the Israelis into a response.

“Unlike some situations we deal with here in the Security Council, we’re guilty parties claim mistaken identity, or lack of evidence of responsibility, this is clearly not the case,” she said. “Hamas openly claims responsibility for this attack. They do so proudly. Their only regret is that the attack did not kill anyone.”

“The Security Council has always been quick to pounce on Israel, regardless of the facts or the circumstances,” Haley added. “I am very interested in how my colleagues respond when the attacks are directly against Israel.”

Lockheed Martin F-35 Fighter Poised To Become One Of America’s Biggest Exports

May 30, 2018

BY: Loren Thompson May 29, 2018 via Forbes

Source Link:
Lockheed Martin F-35 Fighter Poised To Become One Of America’s Biggest Exports

{More bang for the bucks. – LS}

The Pentagon’s F-35 fighter has completed its development program and begun deploying overseas. About 300 have been delivered, and that number will double by the end of 2020. The U.S. military plans to buy 2,443 of the stealthy aircraft in three distinct variants tailored to the needs of the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.

To date, public discussion of F-35 has focused mainly on what the fighter can do for U.S. warfighters, and at what cost. But there is another dimension to the F-35 story, and that is the positive impact the plane will have on America’s trade balance as overseas friends and allies acquire well over a thousand of the fighters, mainly to replace aging F-16s bought during the Cold War.

The F-35 program from its inception has had eight partner countries that helped pay for its development and now are poised to purchase over 600 of the planes. But that is just the beginning of the program’s trade impact. An additional 800 planes are expected to be bought by other countries through the Foreign Military Sales program. That process has already begun, with Israel, Japan and South Korea signing on before development was even completed.

Other potential customers currently include Belgium, Finland, Germany, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates. Over the longer term, virtually every military power that might one day need to contemplate coalition warfare with America will want to take a look, because (1) no other tactical aircraft will be as survivable, (2) no other tactical aircraft will be as versatile, (3) no other tactical aircraft will be as cost-effective, and (4) no other tactical aircraft will mesh as seamlessly with U.S. air power.

I suppose this would be a good point at which to note that F-35 prime contractor Lockheed Martin is both a contributor to my think tank and a consulting client. If I had made the above four claims a few years ago, you might rightly have questioned my objectivity. But not now. After 9,000 flight tests, F-35 has demonstrated all of the performance features expected of it, including the ability to avoid being tracked by Chinese and Russian air defenses.

In addition, the price has fallen to a level where the most common variant will soon cost no more than the latest F-16 — for a great deal more capability. For instance, the electronic warfare suite on F-35 will generate ten times more radiated power than previous fighters, meaning it will not need a jamming aircraft flying escort in order to safely penetrate hostile air space. Every military power within a thousand miles of Russia or China is likely to want that, because when combined with low observables (“stealth”) it makes F-35 unstoppable.

What could be a more credible deterrent than a supersonic (1,200 mph) strike aircraft that can’t be tracked by radar and yet can strike ground targets with pinpoint accuracy and see air targets hundreds of miles away? As if all that were not enough, neither Russia nor China are likely to have anything comparable until the 2030s — if then. Bottom line: F-35 is setting the global standard for tactical air power through mid-century, and overseas sales of the plane will deliver a powerful boost to America’s trade balance.

So how big might that boost be? I’m guessing that over the long run, it will approach a trillion dollars. For starters, if we assign a nominal price of $100 million per plane — which is close to what the most common, Air Force variant costs today — then the value of the 1,500 or so planes Lockheed currently expects to sell overseas is $150 billion. But that doesn’t include life-cycle support and services, which typically cost more than the initial purchase price over decades of operation.

Lockheed has incorporated various “sustainment” features into the F-35 design that will make it easier to maintain than legacy fighters, and more are coming. On the other hand, threats are changing so rapidly that F-35s will likely require frequent software upgrades and periodic hardware modifications across a service life stretching to 2070. Add in the government’s inflation projections across the same timespan, and the export value of the program as currently baselined is already pushing half a trillion “then-year” dollars.

Of course, if inflation were to spike at some point during this period — which it almost certainly will — then the nominal value of the program will too. Let’s leave that possibility out of the estimate since it is incalculable. But let’s not omit the likelihood of multiple wars that stimulate demand, or the need to replace planes lost in combat and training, or the new requirements that might emerge when F-35 pilots find themselves fighting novel challenges such as supersonic drones.

Let’s also bear in mind that F-35 has never lost an overseas competition in which it was entered. Avascent reported last year that over 50 competitions were under way around the world for new tactical aircraft, although less than half had been disclosed publicly. But as geopolitical developments unfold, Washington may decide it needs to sell F-35s to India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and other countries not currently on the short list of prospective buyers.

That doesn’t mean India can’t produce and export F-16s to countries unable or unwilling to buy F-35s (as it is currently contemplating), but India may decide it needs a “high-low mix” of fighters to deal with threats emanating from China or other neighbors. With Washington deeply valuing its strategic ties to New Delhi and F-35 poised to become the global standard for multi-role tactical aircraft, it’s easy to imagine India buying over a hundred eventually. Other customers no one is talking about today might too.

Finally, let’s keep in mind that the F-35’s arrival has dovetailed nicely with a wholesale revision of U.S. arms transfer policy by the Trump administration. The president signed a memorandum on April 19 streamlining the sale of weapons to other countries and committing the government to participating in the overseas promotion of U.S. military products. Trump rightly noted in the memorandum the multiple ways in which such sales stimulate the U.S. technology and industrial base.

That policy isn’t likely to change once Trump leaves office, because Americans would dearly like their allies to take on more of the burden of collective defense. Countries like Germany can show their commitment to shared security objectives while better defending themselves and reducing trade imbalances by buying the F-35. I won’t waste your time with conjectural calculations about how all these factors might combine to make F-35 America’s first weapons program to generate a trillion dollars in export earnings, but it’s probably going to happen.