Archive for July 30, 2012

Panetta says sanctions haven’t yet worked in Iran

July 30, 2012

Panetta says sanctions haven’t yet worked in Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

US Defense Secretary says sanctions hurting Iranian economy but admits they haven’t achieved aim of reining in Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions

Associated Press

Published: 07.30.12, 19:57 / Israel News

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta acknowledged Monday that increasingly stiff international sanctions have yet to compel Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. But he argued that more pressure eventually would lead Iran to “do what’s right.”

Iran’s disputed nuclear program, which Tehran contends is only for peaceful purposes, is a prominent backdrop to Panetta’s five-day tour of the Middle East and North Africa. On Wednesday he’ll be in Israel, whose leaders have said they are contemplating a military attack on Iran to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, a step they view as a threat to Israel’s very existence.

The Obama administration wants Israel to give sanctions and diplomacy more time to steer Iran off its nuclear course, although Panetta repeated the administration’s standard line that “all options” are on the table in the event that non-military pressure does not work.

“These sanctions are having a serious impact in terms of the economy in Iran,” he told reporters during a visit to the North Africa American Military Cemetery, where 2,841 US servicemen killed in the North Africa campaign against Nazi Germany in 1942-1943 are buried.

“And while the results of that may not be obvious at the moment, the fact is that they have expressed a willingness to negotiate (with the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China) and they continue to seem interested in trying to find a diplomatic solution,” he said.

Those on-again, off-again negotiations have not come close to resolving a problem that US Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has cast as one of the biggest failures of the Obama administration.

Romney was in Israel this week showing support for Israel and asserting that if he were president Iran would never get the atomic bomb.

Panetta, who has declined to comment on Romney’s visit to Israel, stuck to his argument that the administration’s current approach is the right one.

“What we all need to do is to continue the pressure on Iran, economically and diplomatically … to negotiate and to ultimately do what’s right in joining the international family,” he added.

Panetta heads to Egypt

After meeting in Tunis with the country’s new Islamist leaders, Panetta was headed to Egypt for talks with its new Islamist president, Mohammed Morsi, in Cairo, as well as Egyptian military leader Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi.

In his remarks at the US military cemetery, Panetta said Washington plans to promote closer counterterrorism cooperation with Tunisia’s new leaders. Panetta’s press secretary, George Little, said the Pentagon chief also raised the idea of more US assistance in securing Tunisia’s border with Libya and in Tunisian maritime security. Little said specifics were not discussed.

Little said the US is worried about the spread of al-Qaeda’s influence in North Africa, while adding that “the sense is that the threat here (in Tunisia) is not as great as elsewhere” in the region.

Amid the ruins in Aleppo, Syrian rebels say victory is near

July 30, 2012

Amid the ruins in Aleppo, Syrian rebels say victory is near.

( They may not be Israel’s friends but, I really admire the courage and tenacity of these rebels fighting against all odds.  I believe they have a good chance of success even sooner than anyone imagines.  More power to them. – JW )

The scruffy, rifle-wielding youths are undeterred by the fate of equally bold, but ultimately crushed rebels in the capital Damascus. (Reuters)

The scruffy, rifle-wielding youths are undeterred by the fate of equally bold, but ultimately crushed rebels in the capital Damascus. (Reuters)

The rebel banner of independence waves over the scorched streets and gutted cars that litter the urban battlegrounds of Aleppo, scars of a struggle in Syria’s second largest city that fighters believe they are destined to win within weeks.

The scruffy, rifle-wielding youths are undeterred by the fate of equally bold, but ultimately crushed campaigns by rebels in the capital Damascus or in Homs, the bloody epicenter of the 16-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

Careening through streets ripped up by army tanks on their motorbikes and flatbed trucks, young rebels with camouflage pants and Kalashnikovs patrol their newly acquired territory, which stretches from the outskirts of Aleppo in the northeast and sweeps around the city down to the southwestern corner.

“We always knew the regime’s grave would be Aleppo. Damascus is the capital, but here we have a fourth of the country’s population and the entire force of its economy. Bashar’s forces will be buried here,” said Mohammed, a young fighter, fingering the bullets in his tattered brown ammunition vest.

The government has also predicted victory in the fight to control Syria’s main commercial city. For days, the government has massed its forces for a major onslaught that has yet to come. Rebels say it is proof the government doesn’t have the ability to storm their territory.

The truth could lie somewhere in between: A state of limbo in Syria’s economic center, paralyzed by artillery fire and an insurgency that has made its home in the narrow, ramshackle alleyways on the poor outskirts of the ancient city.

“We can take the city”

Mohammed and a group of fighters take refuge from the stifling heat in a dark safe house hidden down a crumbling Aleppo alleyway. They pore over a map of the city spread over the floor, tracing the neighborhoods controlled by rebels.

“We have made a semicircle around the city, and we can push in to the centre. Up in the north, the Kurdish groups are running two neighborhoods in the northern central part of the city. We don’t work together, but we don’t fight,” said a fighter called Bara.

“I really believe that within ten days or more, we have a chance to take the city.”

But across town, the smoking wreckage of the Salaheddine district in the south tells a different story. Bodies lay in the streets on Sunday as the army pounded fighters with artillery and mortars and helicopter gunships fired from above.

“We don’t know if they are going to try to finish the area off or if they are distracting us, and then come shell us again here in the east of town,” said Ahmed, a chain smoking activist, cigarettes as he debated with fighters insisting victory was near.

Salaheddine is the main artery out of the city and onto the highway that leads south to Damascus. State troops seem to have concentrated all their forces on wresting it from the rebels.

If the army, which retains overwhelming military superiority with helicopter gunships, rockets, artillery and tanks, cannot secure Salaheddine enough to get tanks on the ground, it would have to bring tanks into the city by going all the way around the province and entering from the other side, because minor roads on the city outskirts are mined by the rebels.

Both sides are trying to avoid using manpower. The army bombards from afar with its tanks or its helicopters hovering overhead. Rebels set up homemade bombs to blow up the tanks when they try to roll in.

On the eastern side of the city, the wounded pour in daily to Dar al-Shifa, a private hospital turned into a rebel clinic. Poorly equipped medics pick out shrapnel from young men’s legs.

“Some days we get around 30, 40 people, not including the bodies,” says a young medic at the clinic. “A few days ago we got in 30 injured and maybe 20 corpses but half of those bodies were ripped to pieces. We can’t figure out who they are.”

Abdulsamea al-Ahmad is a medical assistant but has had to run the hospital since rebels took the area.

“The doctors refuse to come. They are too afraid the regime will come back and they will be arrested. But I can’t leave, I can’t leave people to suffer. God willing, we will all keep up our sacrifices until victory is finally secured.”

Tense streets

Outside the hospital, the fighters are confident as they strut through the streets and nod at passers-by. some smile and wave. Most stare at the ground and quickly walk by. Few are given an opportunity to speak privately with journalists.

In the neighborhoods they hold, rebels have confidently scrawled the word “liberated” on the walls, but there are signs of the anxieties lurking below. One fighter flies into a rage when he sees two boys climbing on a demolished tank.

“You dogs! Are you spies? What are you doing? Get out of here,” he shouts, shaking his rifle, as they back away slowly.

Some gunmen, wearing white and black Islamic headbands, stop traffic at junctions, guarded by men with heavy machineguns squatting nearby. Above them flutters a makeshift green, white and black independence flag, red stars drawn across the middle with marker pen.

“The situation is really great, because we finally managed to liberate all of al-Bab city nearby. The fighters are moving on and we are now concentrating all our efforts on central Aleppo,” said Khalid al-Shamsi, a short, chubby rebel commander with a Kalashnikov over each shoulder.

“Reinforcements and supplies are on the way towards us from al-Bab and other areas.”

Shamsi’s Khattab battalion is part of the Tawhid brigade that controls broad commercial avenues just outside Aleppo’s ancient citadel and historic vaulted souks.

The rebels, who have vowed to “liberate Aleppo”, detained scores of Syrian officers, soldiers and pro-government militiamen last week in Idlib province in the city of Aleppo.

“Now the fighters can come into the center from all over. The more Assad brings in reinforcements, the more we will. We will not withdraw from Aleppo, we will fight with our very last drop of blood,” shouted the commander.

“God is great!” respond his fighters gathering around him.

Markets are open, and vendors lay out their vegetables and fruits on wooden tables under umbrellas near the highway. But only a few women in dark coats and veils linger to shop during the fasting holy month of Ramadan.

Most residents can be found in the bread lines. Crowds of sweating men and women queue around the block, waiting for nearly three hours for three packets of subsidized bread.

“God knows what is coming to us. They keep saying the situation is getting better, that we are heading towards victory, but I’m afraid things will get uglier and uglier,” said one resident, speaking discreetly when fighters escorting Reuters journalists were not looking.

The government seems to expect it will be back. Water and electricity run normally. It allows supplies of flour for subsidized bread to enter rebel areas as normal.

No grand strategy

Fighters insist they have a right to be confident where their comrades have failed.

“In Homs, the city was too carved up by army sites. In Damascus, the guys couldn’t protect their own backs. The countryside was still occupied. Here, we spent months fighting to free the countryside around us. We have plenty of support and supply routes,” said another fighter called Bara, who joined fighters hiding out to inspect the Aleppo map.

“I admit it was no grand strategy but random chance that we saw we’d liberated almost all of the countryside and we could reinforce ourselves, maybe as well as the regime can,” he said.

Even if the rebels estimation is right, the cost of “liberation” is clear: Buildings have been ripped open by artillery shells and mortar bombs. Concrete, shattered glass and piles of trash spill into the streets.

Stepping out into the oppressive summer heat, the fighter Mohammed says the destruction is a fair price for freedom. Even if the government fights it way back into his area again, the rebels say they will claim victory as long as they can survive.

“They can destroy our town, we will keep fighting if they flatten it all,” he said. “Didn’t the Germans destroy parts of Britain in World War II? But the British still won in the end. And believe me, we will never stop.”

Overhead, a helicopter gunship buzzes above a rebel checkpoint a few miles away. It circles above slowly before unleashing a barrage of gunfire.

“There is nothing we can do against their air power,” Mohammed says. “But still, even if they storm Salaheddine, all they will have done is secured their own reinforcements. They won’t have won. The street wars will begin again.”

Residents seem to be bracing for that eventuality. Fighters estimate about 80 percent of residents in the outer districts of eastern Aleppo have fled. And still, dozens of trucks loaded with children and mattresses raced down the road, shouting out their destination to fighters who waved them on.

“God protect you,” the rebels call out to them.

As night falls, the army bombardment erupts again. Blasts of artillery break the evening silence, and the sounds of the gathering storm creep closer.

Iran says to keep Hormuz open as long as it serves its interests

July 30, 2012

Iran says to keep Hormuz open as long as it serves its interests.

Experts say that a heavy Western naval presence in the Gulf and surrounding area is a big impediment to any attempt to block the waterway. (Reuters)

Experts say that a heavy Western naval presence in the Gulf and surrounding area is a big impediment to any attempt to block the waterway. (Reuters)

Iran will keep the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane open as long as the waterway served its interests, a military commander was on Monday quoted as saying.

Iranian politicians and officials have often said that Iran could block the strait – the neck of the Gulf through which 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil exports passes – in response to sanctions or military action.

Such a move would risk a military response from the United States and Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told Reuters in July that Iran was unlikely to follow through on the threat unless its own vessels were denied use of the strait.

“Iran’s goal is for everyone in the world to use the Strait of Hormuz but as long as it does not harm Iran’s interests and in that case our reaction would definitely be different,” IRNA news agency quoted senior Revolutionary Guards commander Masoud Jazayeri as telling Iran’s Arabic-language al-Alam television.

“Most military experts know that if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, no country or countries would be able to confront this move,” he added, according to IRNA.

Experts say that a heavy Western naval presence in the Gulf and surrounding area is a big impediment to any attempt to block the waterway.

Israel and the United States have threatened military action against Iran unless it abandons nuclear activities which the West suspects are intended to develop nuclear weapons.

Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Iran, Hamas united in hate

July 30, 2012

Iran, Hamas united in hate – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Some in West fail to realize that persistent ideology calling for destruction of Jews, Israel flourishes among adherents of radical Islamic ideology
Anav Silverman

Often times, western media overlooks a very key factor to the prolongation of the Middle East conflict. This type of oversight leads some media commentators to reach, through ludicrous logic, some very strange conclusions as to why Israelis are continuous targets of terror.

Take for example a recent article published in The Daily Beast following the terror attack in Bulgaria, which killed five Israeli tourists and wounded 36 others in a bus bombing. The author, Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, wrote about the senseless attack in the context of the past year’s killings of Iranian nuclear scientists:

“US officials have privately expressed concern that one of the purposes of Israeli attacks in Iran has been to generate an Iranian response that could serve as a casus belli for Israel. That way, Israelcould target Iran’s nuclear facilities without paying the heavy political cost of starting a preventive war.”

In other words, the goal behind Israel’s alleged targeting of Iranian nuclear scientists was to provoke an Iranian response that would justify an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program. Following the writer’s logic, the deadly attack on the Israeli tourists in Bulgaria would have served that purpose.

The skewed and twisted reasoning behind such statements implies that Israel wants its citizens dead, maimed and traumatized by terrorist targets, in order to carry out regional war. It completely ignores the fact that a persistent and insidious ideology that calls for the destruction of Jews and the Jewish statehas deep roots in Middle Eastern countries like Iran and flourishes among adherents of radical Islamic ideology.

A very influential figure in Iranian politics, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani openly suggested 10 years ago that nuclear weapons should be used against the Jewish state. In a traditional Friday sermon in Tehran in 2000, he further articulated:

“The Jews (who immigrated to Israel) should expect a “reverse exodus,” because one day, the tumor will be removed from the body of the Islamic world, and then millions of Jews who moved there will become homeless again.”

 

‘Resistance will continue’

More recently, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted in September 201: “Israel is a hideous entity in the Middle East which will undoubtedly be annihilated.”

In February 2011, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was photographed carrying signs in Persian and Arabic which read “Death to Israel.”

In addition, Iranian Armed Forces regularly hold military parades in Tehran, which feature Iranian Shahab-3 missiles that have a 1300-kilometer range to strike Israel.

Footage from last year’s parade show slogans on military vehicles carrying these missiles which read: “Israel Must Be Destroyed.”

While some will say that mere hate rhetoric and intimidation parades are harmless, the culture of hate and incitement which Iran perpetuates through financial, educational means and military weapons, find fertile minds in the likes of young radical Islamist operatives both in the Middle East and internationally.

But most disturbing is that this hatred thrives right on Israel’s borders and is cultivated every year in Gaza summer camps run by Hamas. From June – August of this year, the Hamas administration and its military wing are indoctrinating 70,000 elementary school children and teenagers under the slogans of “Victory Through Youth” and “Camps of Return.”

While girls learn cooking and embroidery, the older boys are trained to use real rifles, handguns, and knives, alongside playing sports and riding horses. The camp counselors prepare the children for prison, and inculcate Hamas’s violent brand of Islam, teaching campers to revere suicide bombers. One of the celebrated heroes this year in camp was Ibrahim Hamed, who as the head of Hamas’s military wing in Ramallah orchestrated countless suicide bombings, murdering 46 Israeli civilians and wounding 400 others, and was sentenced in June to 54 life terms.

Indeed, Iran and Hamasshare one mind and one heart in their hatred of Israel. This past February, Gaza’s prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, traveled to Tehran and declared to a crowd of 30,000 Iranians in Azadi Square that Hamas “will never recognize Israel,” in a commemoration ceremony marking Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, which overthrew the country’s pro-west monarchy.

“The resistance will continue until all Palestinian land, including al-Quds (Jerusalem), has been liberated and all the refugees have returned,” affirmed Haniyeh, alongside President Ahmedinejad.

Despite these types of events and declarations that are frequently made in the Middle East, the West continues to ignore the blatant hatred that defines Iran’s and Hamas’s foreign policies and conduct. It might explain why all diplomatic attempts and negotiations have failed with Iran and Hamas. When the Quartet of diplomatic players in the Middle East peace process – the European Union, United Nations, Russia and the United States – demands that any Palestinian government, including Hamas, must renounce violence and recognize Israel, one can only wonder why Hamas would ever accede to such a request.

The deep-seeded hatred that has lead to the murder of countless Israelis both in Israel and abroad must not be ignored or imagined away. It exists in the hearts, minds, and wallets of those who seek to eradicate the Jewish state and harm the Jewish people at no moral conscience. At the end of the day, it was Israeli planes that brought the Israeli victims back home from Bulgaria—no other country carries the burden of Jewish survival as does Israel.

Anav Silverman writes for Tazpit News Agency in Jerusalem and is an educator at Hebrew University High School

 

Russia Shouldn’t Shield Syria’s Chemical Weapons | Opinion | The Moscow Times

July 30, 2012

Russia Shouldn’t Shield Syria’s Chemical Weapons | Opinion | The Moscow Times.

 

 

 

At some point, President Vladimir Putin concluded that supporting the dictatorial regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad would be advantageous for Russia’s foreign policy. What’s more, it would require little or no investment on the Kremlin’s part. All that was required was to veto United Nations Security Council resolutions put forward by Western states and make meaningless statements about how the warring sides in the Syrian conflict must be brought to the negotiating table to work out a peaceful solution to the de facto civil war.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin continued to deliver weapons to Assad, claiming that these were old contracts that Moscow was obliged to fulfill. These orders including attack helicopters that would not be used against civilians or the rebels, we were told.

Russian leaders also warned that the West was itching to bomb Syria under a similar pretext that it used to  intervene in Libya. But Moscow is determined to not let this happen. According to the Kremlin’s thinking, supporting Assad and opposing the United States on Syria will increase Russia’s authority and return the country to the role of a major global player.

The problem with this approach is that Moscow is attempting to defend a brutal, dictatorial regime that acts impulsively and unpredictably. Two weeks ago, a senior Syrian Foreign Ministry official tried to refute the notion that Assad was prepared to use chemical weapons against his opponents. Instead, the official clarified that chemical weapons would be used only against “foreign aggressors.”

In a rush to clarify its position, Syria’s Foreign Ministry had overlooked the fact that the country had never admitted to having chemical weapons in the first place. In addition, Damascus had refused to sign the international convention that prohibits the development and use of chemical weapons and requires the destruction of current stockpiles. Syria argued that its refusal was simply a rhetorical response to Israel’s refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968. Now, the Assad regime has inadvertently admitted that it does, in fact, own chemical weapons.

Based on intelligence reports, foreign military experts are convinced that Syria has huge stockpiles of chemical weapons. At a minimum, there are four chemical weapons factories in As-Safir, Homs, Hama and Latakia that together are capable of producing hundreds of tons of sarin and even binary chemical agents every year. Enormous stockpiles of chemical weapons are located in Khan Abu Shamat, near Damascus and Homs. Hundreds of bombs and artillery shells are already loaded with chemical weapons and stationed at dozens of military bases.

What’s more, Western intelligence agencies claim that Syria has tactical missiles loaded with deadly chemical agents that can reach targets as far as 500 kilometers away. Western governments are worried that terrorists might obtain even a tiny fraction of Syria’s stockpiles of chemical agents and their delivery systems. In addition, the most intense fighting between government troops and opposition forces is taking place near Syria’s chemical weapons plants and storage facilities.

By announcing the existence of chemical weapons and the willingness to use them against “foreign aggressors,” Damascus has provoked the West and given it a casus belli, whether it intended to do so or not.

Most interesting has been Russia’s reaction to this provocation. Shocked into silence for two days after Syria’s official position on chemical weapons became known to the world, the Foreign Ministry issued another meaningless statement: “The Russian side believes that the Syrian authorities will continue to strictly adhere to their international obligations.”

In other words, Moscow is pretending that Syria never admitted to anything. Not to be outdone, the General Staff issued a statement from an unidentified source assuring journalists that Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons are not really as large as Western countries have claimed.

If the source at the General Staff was suggesting that Syria’s chemical weapons are unlikely to cause serious harm to U.S. and NATO troops, he was actually correct. The world’s leading powers abandoned the production of chemical warfare agents not so much because of their deadly nature but because they are ineffective. Even when a chemical weapon hits its target, the area it affects is relatively small.

In contrast, modern conventional weapons are generally much more powerful and destructive. Chemical weapons have become a sort of “poor man’s nuclear bomb,” a deterrent of last resort in the confrontation with the West. But Western militaries possess the equipment and uniforms to protect against the effects of chemical weapons. In addition, Western forces can in most cases destroy enemy aircraft, artillery batteries and rocket launchers carrying chemical weapons before they can launch a strike. Although chemical weapons are not a real threat to Western forces, they could kill thousands of civilians.

If Damascus does use chemical weapons against its own people, what will happen to the reputation of Russia, a longtime and loyal ally of Assad? Most likely, Russia would become a global outcast, fully joining the ranks of North Korea, Iran and Belarus. At that point, Putin would have a difficult time blaming the ostracism on the U.S. State Department.

Iran bolsters retaliation capability in Gulf, experts say – The Washington Post

July 30, 2012

Iran bolsters retaliation capability in Gulf, experts say – The Washington Post.

Stringer/Iran/Reuters – Military personnel place a flag on a submarine during the Velayat-90 war games by the Iranian navy in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran December 27, 2011. Iran is rapidly gaining new capabilities to strike at U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, amassing an arsenal of sophisticated anti-ship missiles while expanding its fleet of fast-attack boats and submarines.

It seemed, a few weeks ago, that the Iran issue was waning; now it seems to be waxing again. If you want to read an article that is giving Centcom commanders pause (not that they aren’t worried already), read Joby Warrick’s excellent account of Iran’s Persian Gulf military preparations. The Iranian Navy — both Iranian navies, in fact, the regular navy and especially the Revolutionary Guard Corps navy (IRGCN)– could do some real damage to American warships, if there is a Gulf confrontation. (I wrote about the threat of the IRGCN’s speedboats here.)

Israel has been inundated this past month with visits from high-ranking U.S. officials, all coming armed with intelligence to suggest that there is still time for the West to act against Iran’s nuclear program (and by time, they mean post-November 6 time). Israel is also getting a visit this weekend from Mitt Romney, who is attempting to convince Americans that he will be tougher on Iran than Barack Obama. In my Bloomberg View column this week, I lay out why this might not be the case — why, in fact, Romney would be seriously hamstrung in his dealings with Iran, if he is elected president. Here are just a few of the reasons why he would have a potentially hard time confronting Iran militarily:

Romney would be a new president in 2013, which could plausibly be the year for a preventive attack. He will be inexperienced, and his national security team will be new and potentially inexperienced as well. The learning curve on Iran is steep, and the Iranian regime knows it. The Obama team is deeply knowledgeable, appropriately cynical about Iranian intentions, and has had the time and confidence to make course corrections.

Romney, by all accounts, is uninterested in inheriting the mantle of President George W. Bush, who invaded two Muslim countries and lost popularity and credibility as a result. Romney, despite his rhetoric, is more of a pragmatist than Bush, and far more cautious. An attack on Iran is an incautious act, one that even Bush rejected.

The unilateral use of force in the Middle East for a liberal Democrat like Obama is a credential; for a conservative Republican like Romney, it could be an albatross. I argued in a previous column that Romney is more likely than Obama to oversee a revitalized Middle East peace process. That’s because conservatives are better positioned to make peace; liberals are generally better positioned to launch preventive strikes at the nuclear programs of rogue nations. We know that U.S. voters, and world leaders, allow Obama extraordinary leeway when it comes to deadly drone strikes, precisely because of his politics, character and background. (We are talking about a man, after all, who won the Nobel Peace Prize while ordering the automated killing of suspected Muslim terrorists around the world.) Romney will get no comparative slack.

Why Obama Is Tougher on Iran Than Romney Could Ever Be – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic

July 30, 2012

Why Obama Is Tougher on Iran Than Romney Could Ever Be – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic.

It seemed, a few weeks ago, that the Iran issue was waning; now it seems to be waxing again. If you want to read an article that is giving Centcom commanders pause (not that they aren’t worried already), read Joby Warrick’s excellent account of Iran’s Persian Gulf military preparations. The Iranian Navy — both Iranian navies, in fact, the regular navy and especially the Revolutionary Guard Corps navy (IRGCN)– could do some real damage to American warships, if there is a Gulf confrontation. (I wrote about the threat of the IRGCN’s speedboats here.)

Israel has been inundated this past month with visits from high-ranking U.S. officials, all coming armed with intelligence to suggest that there is still time for the West to act against Iran’s nuclear program (and by time, they mean post-November 6 time). Israel is also getting a visit this weekend from Mitt Romney, who is attempting to convince Americans that he will be tougher on Iran than Barack Obama. In my Bloomberg View column this week, I lay out why this might not be the case — why, in fact, Romney would be seriously hamstrung in his dealings with Iran, if he is elected president. Here are just a few of the reasons why he would have a potentially hard time confronting Iran militarily:

Romney would be a new president in 2013, which could plausibly be the year for a preventive attack. He will be inexperienced, and his national security team will be new and potentially inexperienced as well. The learning curve on Iran is steep, and the Iranian regime knows it. The Obama team is deeply knowledgeable, appropriately cynical about Iranian intentions, and has had the time and confidence to make course corrections.

Romney, by all accounts, is uninterested in inheriting the mantle of President George W. Bush, who invaded two Muslim countries and lost popularity and credibility as a result. Romney, despite his rhetoric, is more of a pragmatist than Bush, and far more cautious. An attack on Iran is an incautious act, one that even Bush rejected.

The unilateral use of force in the Middle East for a liberal Democrat like Obama is a credential; for a conservative Republican like Romney, it could be an albatross. I argued in a previous column that Romney is more likely than Obama to oversee a revitalized Middle East peace process. That’s because conservatives are better positioned to make peace; liberals are generally better positioned to launch preventive strikes at the nuclear programs of rogue nations. We know that U.S. voters, and world leaders, allow Obama extraordinary leeway when it comes to deadly drone strikes, precisely because of his politics, character and background. (We are talking about a man, after all, who won the Nobel Peace Prize while ordering the automated killing of suspected Muslim terrorists around the world.) Romney will get no comparative slack.

US, Israel prepared to attack Iran soon

July 30, 2012

US, Israel prepared to attack Iran soon | Palladium-Item | pal-item.com.

I believe that by the end of September 2012 the United States and Israel will launch a devastating attack against Iran.

The first attack will be by different types of aircraft, Navy and Air Force, cruise missiles, etc. These air attacks will be to “take out” different kinds of anti-aircraft defenses in various places in Iran. These unceasing attacks will last for about two days.

During these attacks we will land a few thousand Israeli and American Special Forces such as Navy Seals, Army Airborne troops, Special Operations Forces of the Army, Air Forces, etc. All these will be required to destroy the nuclear facilities which have been the mission of the entire operation. Bombing alone cannot achieve this mission.

The operation will last a total of about four days and will probably “cause” a major war in the Mideast. The difficult withdrawal of the forces on the ground will result in many casualties, however the results will prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons for 50 years or more.

We should all pray for the brave soldiers, sailors and airmen involved in the attack.

Roy W. Brown

Richmond

‘Israel and America are reflections of one another’

July 30, 2012

Israel Hayom | ‘Israel and America are reflections of one another’.

( Whatever you think about Romney and his policies, this is as good a speech as I’ve heard from an American about Israel. – JW )

Syria’s Foreign Minister Blames Israel for Unrest

July 30, 2012

Syria’s Foreign Minister Blames Israel for Unrest – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Syria’s Foreign Minister and his Iranian counterpart accuse Israel of plotting to overthrow the regime of Syrian President Assad.
By Elad Benari

First Publish: 7/30/2012, 6:12 AM

 

A building burns after shelling at Aleppo

A building burns after shelling at Aleppo
Reuters

Syria’s Foreign Minister on Sunday accused Israel of being behind the ongoing unrest in his country.

During a visit to Tehran, Walid al-Moualem and his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Salehi, accused Israel of plotting to overthrow the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

“The Israeli position towards the crisis in Syria proves that a plot was hatched against the regime in Damascus,” Salehi said, accusing Arab states for adopting what he called “Israel’s position” and following it.

He advised countries in the region to consider the implications of their positions and actions, warning that these countries will end up sinking as a result of these actions.

During the joint press conference, Moualem said that the regime in Damascus has the ability to “defeat all the conspiracies and military aggression and protect the Syrian land.”

He said his country is facing a campaign by the United States, Western and Arab countries regarding the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Syria, “while Israel has more than 200 nuclear explosive heads.”

“Syria is committed to the plan of UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan, but there are two important points: preventing any external aggression and maintaining the unity of our country,” said Moualem.

Salehi added that the idea of a managed transition of power in Syria is “an illusion.”

“Thinking naively and wrongly that if there is a power vacuum perhaps in Syria and if there is a transition of power in Syria, simply another government will come to power, that I think is just a dream,” Reuters quoted Salehi as having said.

“It’s an illusion. We have to look carefully at Syria and what’s happening inside the country,” he added.

The Syrian Foreign Minister’s visit to Tehran took place as fierce battles continued in Damascus and in Aleppo.

Assad’s government declared victory on Sunday in a hard-fought battle for Syria’s capital Damascus, and pounded rebels who control parts of Aleppo.

Government forces have succeeded in reimposing their grip on the capital after a punishing battle, but rebels are still in control of sections of Aleppo, clashing with reinforced army troops for several days.