WarSclerotic

That Other Side of Russia’s Syria Campaign…, Independent Strategy and Intelligence Group, November 14, 2015

(Obama’s America isn’t “winning the war” against the (non-Islamic) Islamic State. If Putin’s Russia isn’t either, who will — France? — DM)

True to form, Vlad is increasing operations and the size of his military’s footprint in Syria while lowering the bar of what constitutes “success.” In a recent piece (“Russian-Backed Offensive in Syria Begins to Stall-What Now?”) we discussed how out of all the fronts in the multi-pronged offensive the pro-regime forces are engaged in, only Aleppo has seen any gains – although those gains have been mixed. The SAA and IRGC had to divert resources from the Hama and Idlib fronts just to sustain the Aleppo offensive and achieve the gains that they did – all while sustaining heavy casualties in the process. The diverting of personnel and resources grounded the remaining forces in Hama and Idlib to halt. In some cases they’ve actually lost ground in the two fronts. The only thing that has kept them from driven out of those areas completely is the fact that al-Nusra sent a lot of their fighters to Aleppo, meaning the opposition factions don’t have the manpower to seize the initiative. And so they wait.

Russian-Backed Offensive in Syria Begins to Stall-What Now?
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9219

Has Assad’s New Offensive Changed Syria’s Front Lines?
http://www.syriadeeply.org/articles/2015/11/8733/assads-offensive-changed-syrias-front-lines/

The Puppet Master Source: Derek Bacon (Getty Images)

As of this writing the Russian military has 18 artillery pieces and 9 combat helicopters deployed west of Tadmur with a Spetsnaz unit also operating in the area. Initially these forces were focused on supporting the Assad regime’s multi-pronged offensive in the Northwest due to the major threat the opposition forces posed. Since mid to late-OCT Vlad has conducted airstrikes in Halab Province as part of the effort to disrupt the Islamic State’s (IS) push on the Aleppo supply line. Airstrikes have also been conducted on Raqqa City, Dayr az-Zawr and areas just outside of Damascus. That said, the Russian military is struggling to satisfy the fire support requests of pro-regime forces. The Russian military has 32 combat aircraft, 16 combat helicopters (with more than half in Tadmur) and a Brigade-sized element of artillery.

We’re not surprised that Vlad’s IO guys are trumpeting the recapture of a couple villages and a derelict airbase (Kweires) in Aleppo Province – especially since opposition forces operating in the Ghab Valley were blocking regime advances just a few days ago. Then there’s Jaysh al-Fatah seizing control of several villages in Hama Province. They’ve been poised to push deeper into the areas Northwest of Hama City as of 10 NOV. Regarding Kweires, the recapturing of the base has more symbolic than tactical value. Vlad is hoping the symbolic victory will galvanize the SAA (we’re not holding our breath).

Syrian Regime, Allies Boast of Breaking Aleppo Air Base Siege
http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrian-government-forces-allies-boast-of-breaking-aleppo-air-base-siege-1447265552

Vlad’s increased sense of urgency is understandable considering the current state of the SAA, not to mention the mounting losses of the Iranian military force in-country. Since OCT the IRGC has lost four senior officer to include their most senior official – BG Hossein Hamedani (Reference “Pro-Assad Forces Experience Setbacks Despite Russian Military Intervention”). Even Hezbollah has lost several senior commanders, such as Hassan al-Haj. GEN Suleimani deployed an additional 2,000 IRGC-Qods Force operators to Syria this past summer in response to combat losses. Our sources have informed us that even Ayatollah Khameini has been getting worried about the increase in casualties from the ongoing offensive, which was the driving force behind his decision to deploy additional conventional IRGC personnel (armor, artillery etc). Thing is Khameini is busy trying to keep the Iranian public from learning that things aren’t going as well as advertised. Vlad is already prepping his own domestic audience for a prolonged Russian mission in Syria.

Pro-Assad Forces Experience Setbacks Despite Russian Military Intervention
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8778

The Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) is central to Vlad’s efforts to shape domestic and international opinion of the Syrian campaign – especially against the US. A great deal of the IO portion of this campaign involves messaging that highlights Russia’s humanitarian work (of course leaving out the part about indiscriminately targeting civilians) blames the US and its allies for the Syrian regional war and the rise of IS – even to the extent of claiming that Team Baghdadi is really an “American puppet” (FYI that messaging would work if the Obama administration wasn’t grossly incompetent). There’s actually been some inconsistencies with their messaging, because on one hand they’ll claim the US is “orchestrating” IS’ activities while running a parallel series of messaging highlighting American failures to combat the terror group – they may want to tighten up their shot group in that regards. Our in-country sources report the use of UAVs to distribute leaflets warning opposition fighters of their impending “annihilation” if they don’t flee the area. Another area GRU has been busy is employing the services of independent bloggers, sympathetic website admins and pro-Vlad organizations to distribute messaging. They’ve also been creating fake personas to convey IO themes and present counter-arguments to anything critical of Russia’s intervention, the Assad regime and Vlad himself. We’ve encountered a few of these personas on our Facebook and Twitter feed – they’re not hard to identify since they tried to bait us into divulging the identities of our sources (which isn’t going to happen).

In order to fully understand what’s going on, one must first understand Vlad himself. Our favorite KGB officer has gone his whole life trying to avoid the appearance of “weakness.” Also, his perception since the invasion of Crimea of being labeled a “pariah” by the West likely compels him to be aggressive on the international stage – especially when it comes to projecting power in the Middle East. His KGB service continues to drive his worldview. An example of this is time as a KGB officer in Dresden left a particular mark on his psyche as it was during the last days of the Soviet Union – which he refers to as “the most traumatic experience of his life.” So it should come as no surprise that he views himself as Russia’s lone “champion” that can stand up to defend against America. As such, he views Syria as an opportunity to replace US influence and more importantly, as a test of his reputation and Russia’s international prestige.

A younger Vlad Source: PBS

He has a constant need for recognition and validation, which is why popularity polls are so important to him and why his cult of personality was crafted. Ever wondered why he’s always posing in photos lifting weights, doing the topless horse-riding thing or shooting things? That’s why. Interestingly enough, Vlad was his parents’ only surviving child, and was considered small, weak and sickly. Before that, his parents went through a great deal of hardships during the Siege of Leningrad during WWII. In other words, nothing came easy for him – which we respect. Still, he grew up being regarded as “special” – which resulted in the special snowflake growing up thinking that he was “superior” to everybody else (this is the one thing he has in common with President Obama). As for Vlad’s childhood, he grew up in a rat-infested one-room apartment. It certainly wasn’t the privileged childhood of traveling to exotic locales that his American counterpart got to enjoy. Since he was small, fights occurred regularly – which led to his current interest in martial arts. As for his signature unemotional facial expressions, those are a product of a well-cultivated effort to project strength and guard against unwelcome emotional responses, such as sadness or fear. Acts that he views are intended to undermine or humiliate him will result in his escalating a situation in response. He will only “back off” on his own terms – such as feeling a negative response might come from the public, for instance. For instance, his response to the 2011-2012 Moscow protests is a reflection of his sensitivity to internal dissent. His actions since that time – increased public outreach and propaganda efforts – are geared towards reinforcing the narrative he made of himself as being “indispensable.” The current fight against IS (and the West) is a big part of that plan.

He sure doesn’t seem to like wearing shirts, now does he? Source: Associated Press

The architect of Vlad’s Middle East strategy is GRU Chief Igor Sergun, who was added to the EU’s sanctions list last year in response to his involvement of Russia’s Ukraine campaign. Specifically, he’s a member of Vlad’s “circle of trust” who holds the distinction of being one of the few people involved in the decision-making process leading up to the Crimea invasion receiving the “green light.” More recently, Sergun became a major advocate for Russia to increase its presence in the Middle East. He was the point-man involved in the negotiations that led to the establishment of the joint-intelligence coordination centers in Iraq and Syria (Check out “Russia Providing Lethal Aid to Syria, Iran and Establishment of Intel Centers in Iraq” and “Russia Poised to Increase Military Presence in Middle East in Response to Islamic State’s Strength” for additional info). Of note is that Sergun sees bilateral ties as a means of learning about Western intentions and countering them. The US is just “gaga” over this guy’s smile, but the turn is that he’s the leading figure behind the current IO campaign against the US. This guy has a plethora of experience, having joined the GRU in 1984. From 1989-1992 he served undercover under the guise of being a “military attache” in Stockholm and Tirana in 1997. As a side note, we hear that Sergun loves gardening to unwind and has a nice little dacha near Moscow (we’re working to obtain pics).

Russia’s Military Chief and deputy PM added to EU’s sanctions list
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4a3ff1cc-cf71-11e3-bec6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3rZBrt6dm

Ukrainian Rebel Commander Identified As Russian GRU Military Intelligence Colonel

Ukrainian Rebel Commander Identified As Russian GRU Military Intelligence Colonel

Russia Providing Lethal Aid to Syria, Iran and Establishment of Intel Centers in Iraq
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8532

Russia Poised to Increase Military Presence in Middle East in Response to Islamic State’s Strength
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8416

Igor Sergun: Likes to channel his “Inner-Martha Stewart” for relaxation. Source: The ISIS Study Group

The guy Sergun hand-picked to oversee intel and IO operations in Syria is COL Pavel Vladimirovich Petrunin. His duties involve the coordinating of intel-sharing with the SAA, IRGC and other pro-regime elements, such as Hezbollah. One of the things he’s been heavily involved with is overseeing the creation of IO messaging that emphasizes Russian/Syrian “successes” no matter how minor. According to our sources, he’s also been engaged in stream-lining offensive cyber-warfare operations with the Syrian Electronic Army in the targeting of opposition social media accounts and web sites – even targeting American and allied computer systems. One of the more interesting things we’ve learned is that he was the one who recommended spinning fratricide/civilian collateral damage incidents (which are a common occurrence on the Syrian front) as “IS attacks” as a means of masking SAA ineptitude. Just as important is the direct intel support that his subordinates provide to the Spetsnaz operators conducting CT-operations in the country against opposition leadership.

Apparent Russian raids kill 11 in Syria’s Idlib: monitor
http://news.yahoo.com/10-dead-syria-regime-raids-held-town-monitor-143407847.html

This fight isn’t going to end anytime soon and because of that, the GRU’s IO campaign is going to increase in importance. Keep in mind that Vlad feels that he’s “Russia” itself, and therefore views his failure as “Russia’s failure.” As we’ve stated previously, Vlad is now at the point where he has to escalate the Russian military mission in Syria so as to continue to project that image of “strength.” This becomes even more important after the Sinai Plane Bombing and Paris attacks. That said, the current situation on the ground in Syria and Vlad’s sensitivities to internal dissent presents several exploitable opportunities for the US to launch an IO campaign of its own – whether they’ll have the testicular fortitude to actually do it is another thing altogether…

Other Related Articles:

Russia Supports New Syrian Offensive and Begins Prepping For Russian Ground OPs
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=8669

Amplifying Details on the Sinai Plane Bombing and the Egypt-Libya Nexus
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9230

Sinai Plane Crash Update
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9184

Islamic State Claims to Have Shot-Down Russian Plane in Sinai – But Did They?
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=9157

US to cut 40,000 troops despite Russian and Chinese Belligerence and Rapidly Expanding Islamic State
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=7563