Posted tagged ‘Fatah’

Fatah on the verge of eruption

October 24, 2015

Fatah on the verge of eruption, Ynet News, Alex Fishman, October 23, 2015

As long as Tanzim militants did not walk around brandishing their weapons in public, Israel and the PA turned a blind eye. Now, they are emerging as a significant and central player, fervently courted by the Fatah leadership. Those seeking to inherit Abbas’ seat need the Tanzim divisions on their side. The mounting tensions, the political situation and the anarchy on the street are pushing both Tanzim militants and those courting them to take more extreme positions, and call for an armed conflict against Israel.

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IDF troops that entered Shuafat refugee camp this week had to withdraw after encountering dozens of armed militants; this is only an example of what might happen when Fatah’s armed wing, Tanzim, joins the fight against Israel. And they won’t do with just knives: There are thousands of weapons all over East Jerusalem.

When senior Palestinian security officials want to mock their Israeli colleagues, they remind them that just in Qalandiya – an area controlled by Israel – there are at least 400 M-16 rifles. That figure does not incluide other weapons – guns, explosives and grenades – that are in the hands of militant groups there.  Some of these groups are affiliated with Fatah’s Tanzim, some are affiliated with other organizations, and others belong to criminal organizations – all operating in this no man’s land, where no law applies.

These militants have no problem with appearing on camera, on Channel 2 for example, just as they had no quams about opening fire at an IDF force that went into Qalandiya last Saturday to arrest a wanted man who already spent a year and a half in prison.

“So are YOU going to go in there and get the weapons out, or are you going to leave it to us?” the Israeli security officials respond in anger whenever anyone accuses them of sitting on their hands and doing nothing – implying that the Israeli security forces are afraid to enter a refugee camp under their control in order to demilitarize the Tanzim.

1_oA Tanzim militant (Photo: AP)

Even Israel admits that there is an arsenal of some 3,000 weapons inside the Shaufat refugee camp. The figure includes M-16 and kalashnikov assault rifles, grenades, and IEDs (improvised explosive devices).

Last Saturday night, an army force entered the camp to take measurements of a home set to be demolished. Several dozen militants surrounded the building and made it abundantly clear that they were willing to die in order to stop the structure from being demolished. This is the mood in Palestinian neighborhoods of Jerusalem. The army will have to come back there, with more forces, in order to complete preparations. And now it’s clear that demolishing terrorists’ homes – a countermeasure promised by the Israeli government – will entail fighting dozens of militants who have been left unchecked for years.

Tanzim power structure

Israeli security officials tend to dismiss the knife-wielding terrorists, presenting them as proof of the weakned status of the more established Palestinian terrorist organizations. Except that for a Muslim, the knife is the symbol of the fight for the holy places, in the spirit of the “sword of Islam.” Muslims don’t view the use of a knife as an act of desperation and wretchedness, but an act of bravery. So the less friction on the Temple Mount – which would lead to the lowering of religious tensions – the less stabbing attacks we’ll have.

In the current wave of violence, the stabbing attacks are just ripples in the ocean. The statistics surrounding these “lone-wolf attacks” don’t accurately reflect the level of violence accumulating on the Palestinian street. Israeli security officials are more concerned with these massive tidal waves that have a far bigger potential of dangerously erupting.

Indeed, when the IDF prepares to face a long-term wave of violence, it takes into consideration the eventuality that at any given moment- and without prior warning – thousands of militants in the West Bank, mostly affiliated with Fatah’s Tanzim, could join the fight.

In its early days, Tanzim was a secret organization compiled of local political activists, students, and released prisoners, which executed Fatah’s policies: Be it social activities, organizing support rallies for the regime, or rioting against Israel. Later, during the second intifada, Tanzim’s militants committed terror attacks against Israeli security forces and civilians, including the terror attack in Kibbutz Metzer, where five people were murdered – including a mother and her two children.

The basic structure of the organization remains, and nowadays it serves as Fatah’s “shadow army” operating on the Palestinian street, alongside the PA’s security forces.

However, the ties between the heads of Tanzim and the Mukataa in Ramallah are growing weaker by the day. Abbas’ security forces can’t enter some of the refugee camps because the Tanzim militants kick them out.

ap_oA Tanzim militant (Photo: AP)

Two months ago, when there was talk of the day after Abbas, Tanzim threatened the heads of Fatah that if it didn’t get its share of the leadership pie, they would launch attacks against Palestinian security facilities and take them by force.

Tanzim’s militants are spread over ten districts of the West Bank. East Jerusalem is one of these districts. Each district is divided into sub-districts, and then further divided into neighborhoods, villages, ect. The smallest unit is the “Jannah,” and it that might also be a bunch of huts outside a village. Every such unit – from the district to the Jannah – has commanders. Today, when these groups sense Abbas’ weakness and the crumbling of his regime, they go out on the street armed, in broad daylight. This is an act of defiance not just against the Palestinian Authority, but also against Israel.

After the second intifada, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, under the auspices of the Americans, signed a pardon agreement for wanted militants. The agreement dictated that the Fatah militants who fought as part of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades during the second intifada would cease their involvement in terrorism and disarm. Israel, in return, would stop pursuing them. It turns out that some of the armed Tanzim militants of today are the same wanted militants from the distant past – the same ones who committed not to carry arms. So even that agreement has fallen apart.

The arson at Joseph’s Tomb last weekend might have been an anti-Jewish provocation, but it also demonstrated how little regard the Palestinian militant groups have for the Palestinian security forces. Joseph’s Tomb is only 400 meters away, in a straight line, from a central Palestinian security forces base. The perpetrators acted against the PA’s interests, and right under its nose. They just don’t give the Palestinian security forces the time of day.

pa (1)Tanzim militants (Photo: AP)

As long as Tanzim militants did not walk around brandishing their weapons in public, Israel and the PA turned a blind eye. Now, they are emerging as a significant and central player, fervently courted by the Fatah leadership. Those seeking to inherit Abbas’ seat need the Tanzim divisions on their side. The mounting tensions, the political situation and the anarchy on the street are pushing both Tanzim militants and those courting them to take more extreme positions, and call for an armed conflict against Israel.

Jibril Rajoub, for example, is one of the ten candidates to succeed Abbas. When this wave of violence just started, Rajoub was still urging the Palestinian security forces to hold a dialogue with Israel and now, this week, he changed his tune to a far more extreme position, encouraging the knife-wielding terrorists, as if he was competing with Hamas over who has the most inflammatory rhetoric. Rajoub wants to win back the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people, Israeli officials explain, and the Palestinian people want blood. Rajoub views himself as one of the leaders of Tanzim, and this kind of rhetoric only serves to increase his popularity on the Palestinian street.

62114480100589640360noJibril Rajoub, rising in popularity on the Palestinian street (Photo: Amit Shabi)

Several of Abbas’ potential successors even formed coalitions to bring Tanzim to their side. For example, the coalition of Abbas’ rivals, headed by Mohammed Dahlan, which also includes Yasser Abed Rabbo (the former secretary-general of Fatah’s executive committee, who was removed from office) and Salam Fayyad (the former Palestinian prime minister who was also removed from office). This coalition seeks to bring in Marwan Barghouti, who is imprisoned in Israel, as a symbol. It also has money, and a lot of it, that Dahlan brought with him from the Gulf monarchies, in order to buy Tanzim’s loyalty.

370098820870100490490noMarwan Barghouti, a symbol (Photo: Gil Yohanan)

Then there’s also the group of Abbas allies, like Majid Faraj, the head of the Palestinian security forces, and Saeb Erekat, the chief negotiator with Israel.

They face other potential candidates to succeed Abbas, like Muhammad al-‘Alul – the former governor of Nablus and one of the more senior members of the Tanzim leadership, who’s been there since the first intifada.

All of these candidates have their sights on the militant organization, trying to appropriate it. The fight for Tanzim creates a kind of conduct and comments that are becoming more and more extreme.

Eisenkot’s West Bank forum

This week, Abbas finally realized the kind of trap he walked into. In a desperate attempt to stop the escalation, he tried to reframe the fight with a new slogan: “Smart Resistance.” Wednesday’s editorial in the PA’s mouthpiece Al-Hayat al-Jadida warns against the situation getting out of control, which could hurt the Palestinian people’s quality of life. The term “third intifada” is not mentioned.

Abbas’ former slogan, “Peaceful Resistance,” is no longer relevant. As long as the resistance only included stone-throwing, rioting, and Molotov cocktails, Abbas would congratulate the “shahids” who committed these actions. He was against terrorism in principle, but not to this kind of activity. But the moment the PA started encouraging violence of any kind – it was inviting that escalation. And when the knives started appearing and Abbas was unwilling to condemn the stabbers, it came back to him like a boomerang. The Palestinian street no longer accepts the PA’s authority. Young rioters don’t heed the calls of the Palestinian security forces, Hamas, or anyone else for that matter. That is why the PA leadership is now talking about a “Smart Resistance”: To bring the knives back into the kitchen, because the Palestinians will pay dearly for this escalation. But it appears Abbas has already missed the train.

stone throwersStone throwers: ‘Peaceful resistance’; Knife-wielding attackers:’Smart resistance’ (Photo: AP)

In war games held by the IDF’s Central Command on the eve of Abbas’ speech at the UN General Assembly meeting last month – with Israeli officials worried about an inflammatory speech that would set the Palestinian street on fire – the army drilled several scenarios of a loss of control over the West Bank.

The first scenario: A wave of lone-wolf attackers dragging the entire Palestinian street into all-out violence. This scenario is defined as low-level violence, and it is unfolding right now.

The second scenario was of a violent outburst inside the refugee camps that would enlist Tanzim to an armed struggle that would set the West Bank on fire. This is the scenario currently worrying Israel’s defense establishment. That is why Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon instructed the army to prepare for long-term deployment of increased forces in the West Bank, including the possibility of switching out the conscript soldiers in the West Bank with reservists, to allow the army to resume its regular training schedule.

Assignments for the reservists have already been determined, and starting December they too will be deployed in the West Bank. There will be a price to pay for the reservists – there’ll make more mistakes out in the field – but the army has been on high alert in the West Bank for a month now, and it is unclear when that would end. So calling up the reserves at this point appears like a necessary step.

Stone throwers for AbbasAbbas welcomed stone-throwing rioters (Photo: EPA)

Facing constantly increasing levels of terrorism, the IDF’s General Staff is also focusing on preparing long-term plans. Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot holds at least three weekly meetings with a team of senior officers who rose up the ranks while fighting terrorism in the West Bank. Among them is Deputy Chief of Staff, Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan, who was the commander of the Judea and Samaria Division; the head of Army Intelligence, Maj.-Gen. Herzl Levy, who was the commander of the Jenin Brigade; the head of the Operations Branch, Maj.-Gen. Nitzn Alon, who was the commander of the Judea and Samaria Division and the GOC Central Command; the current GOC Central Commander, Maj.-Gen. Roni Numa; COGAT Maj.-Gen.

Yoav Mordechai; the head of the Operations Division, Brig.-Gen. Aharon Haliva, who commanded over the Tulkarm-Qalqilya sector; and of course the current Judea and Samaria Division commander, Brig.-Gen. Lior Carmeli, who served in the past as the head of the Jenin Brigade. Not to mention Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen and the commander of the Shin Bet’s Jerusalem District, in charge of the West Bank, who served in Hebron for 17 years.

The army wants to send a message that it put its best people on the job – senior officers with the most experience fighting against the Palestinians in the West Bank that the army has. There’s more than a subtle hint here to the attempts of politicians to challenge the defense establishment’s judgment with bizarre ideas, meant solely to bring the situation to a boiling point in order to create a new reality on the ground vis-à-vis the Palestinians.

For example, Bayit Yehudi Minister Uri Ariel’s call to stop the transfer of funds to the Palestinian Authority. On paper, this is an innocuous and logical proposal. They owe over NIS 1.5 billion to the Israel Electric Corporation, so why do we need to pay their bills? After all, those funds are also paying the stipends given to families of terrorists.

Except that army officials who are in communication with the Palestinian security forces have received a very clear message from them: Don’t you dare touch our tax money. If the funds don’t come in, there will be no money to pay policemen’s salaries. No salaries? Those policemen won’t be out in the field or worse – they’ll join the ranks of Tanzim or Hamas.

And this is what Minister Ariel and his ilk want: Anarchy.

AnarchyAnarchy (Photo: AFP)

The defense establishment is fighting tooth and nail to stop the approval of a proposal from right-wing ministers to impose a blockade on the West Bank. The government has accepted the defense establishment’s position. The ball is now in the prime minister’s court. The moment Netanyahu caves in and surrenders to the pressure coming from the extreme right – the IDF will no longer be able to stop an all-out armed conflict.

It was no coincidence that the defense minister – in a speech he made this week – chose to speak against the inciters, the “price tag” people, and the like. The defense establishment is aware of the potential threat of Jewish violence. The most effective weapon the defense minister has against Jewish extremists in the West Bank is Israeli public opinion, which won’t accept such conduct from hawkish ministers and settler leaders on the ground.

The heads of the Palestinian security forces are having a hard time keeping their men in line. There were already several “rebellions” by Palestinian security personnel who tried to commit attacks – and were thwarted. The heads of the Palestinian security forces are pleading with Israel to minimize the amount of casualties in clashes with Palestinians, to keep out of Area A, and not deny them the funds to pay salaries.

Snipers instead of aerial fire

On October 16, Palestinian security forces arrested two terror cells: One belonging to Hamas and the other to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. According to intelligence obtained by the PA, the Hamas cell planned to commit a big terror attack meant to rile up the Palestinian street and weaken the Palestinian Authority.

Israel has no reason to doubt the credibility of this report. A similar incident occurred, on a much larger scale, on the eve of Operation Protective Edge. At the time, the Shin Bet exposed a Hamas plot including dozens of operatives planning to commit several major terror attacks against Israel and the Palestinian Authority in an effort to bring down Abbas.

Hamas is currently fighting on three separate fronts, leading a different policy in each of them. In Jerusalem, Hamas is working to take over the Temple Mount. In the West Bank, it’s making every effort to execute a large-scale terror attack that would serve as the final nail in the coffin for the Palestinian Authority as it is today. The large sums of money feeding the propaganda Hamas is spreading through social media as well as traditional media is coming from Istanbul, from the Hamas headquarters in Turkey.

Gaza border (2)Clashes on the Gaza border (Photo: Reuters)

Saleh Al-Aruri, who was exiled to Qatar by the Turkish government several months ago, has returned to Istanbul with the Turks’ consent, and is leading Hamas’ a campaign of propaganda and incitement under the slogan “Stab, stab!” This message is falling on attentive ears not just in East Jerusalem and among Palestinians illegally staying in Israel, but also in the West Bank, mostly in the Hebron area, where quite a few stabbing attacks occurred over the past week.

In recent days, the incitement coming out of Turkey has been working to change the focus from stabbing attacks to vehicular attacks. Hamas believes the stabbing attacks have exhausted themselves, even though there were quite a few of them taking place in the West Bank this week, mostly in the Hebron area. The vehicular attacks are far more effective. And, indeed, there has been a rise in vehicular attacks in recent days.

In the Gaza Strip, on the other hand, Hamas lets the Palestinians to blow off steam, but keeps it under control, and stops, by all means possible, any rocket fire at Israel. Twelve Gazans have been killed in clashes with IDF forces on the border fence and in airstrikes, without any response from Hamas.

The field is flooded with IDF snipers, and over the past few days protesters have failed to cross the border fence. The IDF is also trying not to give Hamas a reason to change its policy in the Gaza Strip. When snipers fired from inside the Strip, hitting an Israeli vehicle, the army considered a targeted strike from the air. But out of operative considerations, the IDF decided instead to hit back with sniper fire. By the way, these Gazan snipers were part of an organization that broke away from Hamas.

Hamas is playing these three different games with a lot of caution and without any confusion. The organization’s basic assumption is that Israel won’t launch another conflict in the Gaza Strip over a terror attack initiated by Hamas in the West Bank.

The Palestinian security forces were not the only ones arresting Hamas operatives in the West Bank. The IDF conducted its own raids, arresting both military and political figures. One such political figure was Hassan Yousef, who is considered the head of Hamas in the West Bank, and who Israel accuses of incitement. But what these arrests are actually meant to do is signal Hamas that Israel will trample the organization’s presence in the West Bank, just as it did during Operation Brother’s Keeper, after the kidnapping and murder of the three yeshiva students in the summer of 2014.

During a situation assessment meeting held in Israel after the arrests, one of the officers compared dealing with Hamas to going to the family health center. Every once in a while, people like Hassan Yousef need to be brought in to see how much weight he gained, how high he got and check his mental state. A sort of litmus paper for the way the wind blows in the West Bank. The problem is that at this family health center, there are no innocent babies or kind nurses. The players in the triangle of Israel-West Bank-Gaza have already realized that the era of knife-wielding attackers could very well be one day remembered as normal compared to what the Palestinian street knows, could and might do.

Murder as politics

October 24, 2015

Murder as politics, The Washington Times, Louis Rene Beres, October 22, 2015

Even as growing numbers of Palestinian terrorists stab madly at Israeli men, women, and children, much of the world still endorses creation of “Palestine.” Such mindless support continues, moreover, despite the fact that the Palestinians themselves reject any sort of two-state solution. Indeed, the latest such poll (September 2015), conducted by Palestinian research organizations, concluded that almost half the resident Arabs strongly favor the use of armed force and generalized violence against Israeli noncombatants.

For the most part, western news reports notwithstanding, knife wielding attackers are not “lone wolves.” Rather, they have been conspicuously spurred on by vitriolic PA incitements, and by carefully synchronized calls from the mosques to murder “The Jews.”

The Palestinian Authority shares with Hamas the irredentist vision of a one-state solution. There is nothing hidden or ambiguous about this true plan for Israel’s disappearance. It is plainly codified on the official maps of both factions, where Israel is identified only as “Occupied Palestine.”

For virtually all Arab forces in the Middle East, the conflict with Israel is never about land. It is about God, and about always-related promises of personal immortality. It is about power over death.

For the Palestinians, their carefully sanitized public rhetoric notwithstanding, the enemy is not the Israelis (that term is just subterfuge, for the media), but “The Jews.” The screaming young Palestinian, who strikes indiscriminately with his serrated blade, fully expects to become a “martyr.” He only risks “death” in order not to die.

There is more. A Palestinian state — any Palestinian state — would rapidly be taken over by ISIS, or by related jihadi adversaries. Already, ISIS is operating in parts of Syria that could bring it to the critical borders of Israel’s Golan Heights. Significantly, it has also set recognizable operational sights on Jordan and West Bank (Judea/Samaria).

Over the next several months, and even while the Palestinian Authority continues to orchestrate more “Third Intifada” attacks on Israelis, ISIS will commence its fated march westward, across Jordan, ending up at the eastern boundaries of West Bank. These boundaries, of course, would represent the territorial margins of what PA/Fatah both already affirm as the geographic heart of “Palestine.”

Palestinian forces, primarily Fatah, would then yield to ISIS, and to its local proxies. Fatah would then have to choose between pleading with the Jewish State to become an ally against a now-common foe, or abandoning all its residual military operations to the IsraelDefense Forces directly. Arguably, without IDF assistance in such desperate circumstances, “Palestine” wouldn’t stand a chance.

One additional irony ought to be noted. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long made acceptance of any Palestinian state contingent upon prior Palestinian “demilitarization.” Should the Palestinian Authority and Hamas somehow accede to this problematic expectation, it could make ISIS’ predictable destructions in the area much easier to carry out. Paradoxically, a “Palestine” that had properly stood by its pre-state legal concessions to Israel, could effectively increase the overall danger posed to both Palestinians and Israelis.

What about Jordan? Under pertinent international law, the Hashemite Kingdom has incurred certain binding obligations regarding joint cooperation with Israel against terrorism. These obligations, as reinforcing complements to more generally binding legal rules, are expressly codified at the 1994 Treaty of Peace Between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Could this treaty still have any palpable effect upon Jordan’s capacity to militarily block anticipated ISIS advances?

Not at all. The more generic problem of enforcing treaties had already been identified back in the 17th century, by Thomas Hobbes. Said the English philosopher, in his “Leviathan,” a work well known to America’s founding fathers: “Covenants, without the Sword, are but words …”

From the 17th century onward, the world political system has been anarchic, or, in Hobbesian terms, a “state of nature.” In the anarchic Middle East, especially, considerations of raw power routinely trump international law. Here, too, truth here may be counter-intuitive. On those endlessly perplexing matters concerning Palestinian statehood, for example, it is finally time to understand that “Palestine‘s” true enemy in the region is not Israel, but rather a hideously sordid amalgam of Islamist Arab forces. Going forward, any further Palestinian advances toward statehood would likely be solely to the longer-term tactical advantage of ISIS.

Is this the sort of statehood cause that should be enthusiastically supported in Washington, and in most European capitals? It is, but only if we should first want to see an expansion of “Third Intifada” terror to the homeland. Not likely.

If you like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, you’ll love “Palestine.”

Netanyahu – Mufti Kerfuffle: Ask Yourself Why Doves are Enraged

October 21, 2015

Netanyahu – Mufti Kerfuffle: Ask Yourself Why Doves are Enraged, UK Media WatchElliott Jager, October 21, 2015

(A video of PM Netanyahu’s remarks at the Zionist World Congress is available here. The portions quoted below, and the context in which they were made, are at 4:50 – 6:20. — DM)

Here is what you need to know about Amin Husseini.

He was born in 1895 and died in 1974. He was appointed Grand Mufti of Jerusalem by the British Mandate authorities.

And, he is infamous in Jewish history as a collaborator with the Nazis.

He was a proponent of militant violence against Jews and against any Arabs who were willing to make peace with the Zionist enterprise.

When WWII broke out he made his headquarters in Iraq and tried to establish a pro-Nazi regime there. When that didn’t work out, he moved to Italy (an Axis power) and then to Germany.

He openly supported the Final Solution – this is not in doubt.

He helped the Nazis set up Bosnian-Muslim Waffen-SS battalions. He lobbied the Nazis to bomb Tel Aviv and to extend the net of the Holocaust to Sephardi Jews in Arab lands.

He vehemently opposed any tactical deals (“trucks for Jews,” etc) that would have even temporarily spared Jewish lives.

After the war he was welcomed and given refuge by Nasser in Egypt.

Now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech at the World Zionist  Congress in Jerusalem yesterday (Oct. 20) garnered criticism for supposedly misstating the Mufti’s role in the Shoah.

Here’s what the PM said:

“…And this attack and other attacks on the Jewish community in 1920, 1921, 1929, were instigated by a call of the Mufti of Jerusalem Haj Amin al-Husseini, who was later sought for war crimes in the Nuremberg trials because he had a central role in fomenting the final solution.

“He flew to Berlin. Hitler didn’t want to exterminate the Jews at the time, he wanted to expel the Jews.

And Haj Amin al-Husseini went to Hitler and said, “If you expel them, they’ll all come here.” “So what should I do with them?” he asked. He said, “Burn them.”

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Now, the point of the reference to the Mufti is that he was among the first to claim that the Jews wanted to destroy al-Aksa mosque.

Netanyahu did not say that the Mufti convinced Hitler to annihilate the Jews.

It is simply true that as the destruction of European Jewry evolved from 1933 until 1945 the Nazis tried different approaches to solving the “Jewish problem.”

And yes, there was a stage when in parallel to killing Jews haphazardly (clubbing, shooting, etc) and well before the industrial destruction had been perfected, the Nazis did consider expulsion.

According to Joseph Schechtman’s The Mufti and the Fuehrer, the mufti began his outreach to the Nazis on July 21, 1937 via the German consul in Jerusalem.

Keep in mind that at the time, the Nazis still had hopes to keep Britain out of any war so didn’t want to rock the boat in British-controlled Palestine.

Nonetheless, the mufti sent an agent to Berlin to lobby the Nazis.

In fact, Adolph Eichmann was dispatched to Palestine to study the situation in response to the Mufti’s lobbying efforts.  He was also in contact with Husseini.

Actually, there is some evidence that already in 1936, the Nazis were helping the Arabs in Palestine.

Obviously, there is much more to be said about the Mufti and the Nazis.

But what matters in 2015 is this:

(1) The claim that the Jews want to change the status quo on the Temple Mount dates back at least to the Mufti’s days.

(2) The fierce criticism by dovish Jewish journalists, pundits, and politicians (and of course the foreign media and the Arabs) of Netanyahu is intended to undermine his not-so-subtle implication that Arab intentions then and now are much the same.

That is the crux of the issue.

If you believe the conflict is about boundaries and settlements then you want to play down the extraordinary consistency of Arab intentions.

Why? Because it is almost too painful to imagine that the Palestinian Arabs today really want what the Palestinian Arabs of 1933 or 1929 wanted.

So if you think that Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fatah are not disciples of the mufti’s values then you need to be offended by Netanyahu’s efforts to link the Nazis to the Palestinian cause. Of course, you also need to keep your eyes tightly closed.

‘Abbas: We Will Continue The Popular Resistance; Israel Is Plotting To Change Status Quo In Jerusalem; Israel Uses Terror, Executes Children

October 16, 2015

‘Abbas: We Will Continue The Popular Resistance; Israel Is Plotting To Change Status Quo In Jerusalem; Israel Uses Terror, Executes Children, Middle East Media Research Institute, C. Jacob, October 16, 2015

Like the first and second intifadas, the current wave of terrorism is being exploited by Palestinian organizations  and leaders, including by Palestinian President Mahmoud ‘Abbas, who attack Israel and accuse it of terror and crimes while making false claims and allegations. Some Palestinian organizations and leaders praised the perpetrators of the attacks, stating that they acted in self-defense. Fatah’s military wing, the Al-Aqsa Brigades, even called to escalate the attacks.

In his recent statements and speeches, ‘Abbas did not mention any violent Palestinian actions, but spoke only of “popular resistance,” which he advocates. This term is highly misleading, since it evokes nonviolent action such as peaceful protests and marches, whereas the recent wave of Palestinian terror has included mostly knifings, many of which resulted in grave injuries and deaths, as well as the throwing of stones and firebombs and the slinging of metal balls, which have also resulted in injuries and deaths.

PA and its head, Mahmoud ‘Abbas, have not only refrained from condemning the terror of the recent month, but are encouraging it to continue and are presenting the perpetrators not as attackers who deliberately set out to stab Israelis but as innocent Palestinians whom Israel executed under false pretenses. They call the injuring or killing of terrorists “war crimes” and even state that they mean to sue Israel in the International Criminal Court. The language used by ‘Abbas – such as “the terror of the Israeli government and the settler herds”, “execution in cold blood,” and “Israel’s hostile attack” – is obviously not conducive to calming the atmosphere, and in fact incites violence.

Granted, ‘Abbas and his security apparatuses are currently working to prevent the spread of the conflicts in the PA territories, and they have indeed arrested Hamas activists. Furthermore, ‘Abbas met with Fatah leaders in the various districts, apparently to instruct them to take measures to quell the violence. However, these measures seem to be motivated by the fear of losing control of the situation and by the desire to avoid giving Israel an excuse to retake the PA territories.

25297Mahmoud ‘Abbas (image: Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, London, October 14, 2014)

The Libel Of A Changed Status Quo At Al-Aqsa

In his October 14, 2015 speech on Palestinian television, ‘Abbas reiterated the libel that was the main catalyst for the current terror incidents, namely that Israel plans to alter the status quo in Jerusalem, despite repeated declarations by Israeli officials that Israel has no intention of doing so. ‘Abbas also declared that Israel’s actions were sparking a religious conflict. He said: “These days Israel’s hostile attack on our Palestinian people, its soil and its holy sites is intensifying, and the savage racism in its ugly form adds hideousness and repulsiveness to the occupation. These pose a threat to peace and stability and herald the lighting of the fuse of a religious conflict that will spark an all-consuming conflagration not only in the [Middle East] region but in the entire world. This is a warning bell for the international community to immediately intervene in a positive manner, before it will be too late.

“We say explicitly and unequivocally that we will not agree to a change in the status quo in the blessed Al-Aqsa and we will not allow Israel to carry out any plot intended to damage its sanctity and its purely Islamic [character]. The right [over Al-Qasa] is our exclusive right – Palestinians and Muslims everywhere. We seek rights, justice and peace. We have attacked nobody and we will not agree to attacks on our people, our homeland and our holy sites.”[1]

It should be mentioned that, one month ago, in a meeting with East Jerusalem residents, ‘Abbas urged them to continue opposing the “invasions” of Al-Aqsa and to prevent the Israelis from dividing it:

“The Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulcher are ours. They are all ours, and they [the Israelis] have no right to defile them with their filthy feet. We shall not allow them to do so, and we shall do whatever we can to protect Jerusalem. We are in Jerusalem and will remain there. We will defend the places sacred to Christianity and Islam and will not abandon our city. We will continue to cleave to every inch of its soil and do everything to make its voice heard. I am confident that no harm will come to Jerusalem, even though Israel is waging a war of extermination against it. We will continue defending it under any circumstance. We are talking with everyone, and everyone is asking what we are doing to make [Jerusalem’s] voice heard.”[2]

‘Abbas: Israel Is Executing Palestinians, Including Children, In Cold Blood

Another false accusation invoked by ‘Abbas in his speech, and which has recently become a prominent part of the Palestinian narrative, is that Israel is executing Palestinians, including children, on the pretext that they attempted to stab Jews. As an example he cited the case of Ahmad Manasra, the 13-year-old boy who, on October 12, stabbed and critically wounded an Israeli boy his own age in the Pisgat Zeev neighborhood of Jerusalem, although Manasra is only moderately wounded and is hospitalized in Israel. ‘Abbas said: “We have told the entire world from the U.N. stage that in no way will we accept the existing situation in occupied Palestine, nor will we surrender to the logic of oppressive force and to the policy of occupation and aggression adopted by the Israeli government and its settler herds, who are using terror against our people, our holy places, our homes and  our trees and are executing our children in cold blood, just as they did to the boy Ahmad Manasra and to other children in Jerusalem and elsewhere.”

Abbas stated further that the PA would sue Israel for the executions at the International Criminal Court: “We will file new suits over the execution of our sons, daughters and grandchildren. Whoever fears international law and its penalties should desist from committing crimes against our people.”[3]

The claim about the Israeli executions was echoed by Palestinian chief negotiator and PLO Executive Committee secretary Saeb Erekat, who said at a press conference that Israel was executing Palestinians, while ignoring the fact that they were killed while stabbing or attempting to stab Israelis. He said: “We demand that  the [U.N.] special rapporteur on human rights Christof Heyns arrive immediately and investigate the field executions… According to the directive of President [‘Abbas], we decided to collect information in order to submit three lawsuits, against Prime Minister Netanyahu, his defense minister and the heads of the Israeli security forces.”[4]

‘Abbas: The Martyrs’ Blood Is The Price Of Freedom; The Palestinian Struggle Has Gained Attention, Earned Respect Of The Entire World

In his speech ‘Abbas called to continue the “popular resistance” and congratulated Jerusalem and the martyrs, stating that the events are the result of Israel’s rejection of the hand extended in peace and the continued construction in the settlements: “O heroic Palestinians, in your struggle and steadfastness you have gained considerable victories and political achievements, and thanks to this wondrous steadfastness the Palestinian cause has gained the attention and earned the respect of the entire world. True, we have paid for it in the blood of our martyrs and wounded, in the tears of our mothers and the torment of our prisoners, but that is the price of freedom, which is now very close.

“[I] congratulate you, our glorious people, as well as proud Jerusalem and its residents who stand on the front line; [I] congratulate Gaza, the West Bank and our people in the diaspora. Victory will come, with Allah’s help… We will persist in our legitimate national struggle, which focuses on our right to defend ourselves, the nonviolent popular resistance and the diplomatic and legal struggle, and we will act with the required patience, wisdom and valor to defend our people and its diplomatic and national achievements, which were attained following decades of struggle and persistence and via the long road of the martyrs, wounded and prisoners.

“The instability and insecurity result from the Israeli government’s rejection of our hand that is extended in [a bid for] a just peace that will guarantee the rights of our people, its freedom and its national honor. [They result from Israel’s] stubborn persistence in building in the settlements and imposing dictates [upon the Palestinians]. Peace, security and stability will only be achieved if the Israeli occupation ends and an independent Palestinian state is established, with holy Jerusalem as its capital, in the June 4, 1967 boundaries.

“Members of the glorious Palestinian people, wherever you are, I call upon you to rally together and unite, and be alert to the occupation’s schemes that are designed to torpedo our national enterprise. We will never be deterred from defending our people and protecting them. That is our right. [I] congratulate the martyrs, the wounded and the prisoners.”[5]

Senior Fatah Officials Praise The Terrorists, Encourage Continued “Popular Resistance”

Saeb Erekat praised Fadi ‘Aloun, who carried out an October 4, 2015 stabbing in Jerusalem, as well as  Muhannad Al-Halabi, who stabbed two Israelis to death in Jerusalem’s old city the same day. He also listed the names of “martyrs,” most of whom perpetrated terror attacks, while emphasizing their young age. He added: “The Israeli method vis-a-vis the Palestinian people is [carrying out] field executions… Israel kills civilians and children and imposes collective punishments.”[6]

Other senior Fatah officials justified the violence and/or encouraged its continuation. In an interview with the Amad press agency, Fatah Central Committee member and former West Bank General Intelligence head Tawfiq Al-Tirawi said that the Palestinian people had the right to defend itself and to resist in order to secure its future, for popular resistance was one of the methods of resistance.[7]

Fatah Central Committee member ‘Azzam Al-Ahmad said: “We must continue the national awakening, for diplomatic activity without popular resistance is valueless. The time has arrived to expand the circle of [those] joining the popular resistance, and all of us have to participate in the struggle, each according to his ability.”[8]

Fatah Central Committee member ‘Abbas Zaki told the Turkish news agency Anadolu: “Armed struggle against the occupation is a legitimate right that we will not relinquish. However, this [activity] requires unity among all the Palestinian factions and establishing a central war room and formulating plans so that the armed struggle exacts a steep price from the enemy while [also] benefiting the Palestinian people. We reserve the right to [engage in] armed struggle, which is an option we will not give up, but we must consider how and when to carry it out, and whether the climate is right to use it to our benefit. At present we support [waging] a popular intifada that will confound the enemy and paralyze his security and economy, and prompt the world to address the question of how to end the world’s last remaining occupation.

“Deciding on an armed struggle now will [only] serve the enemy, who has the military power to kill [us] on a daily basis. Today we are defending ourselves, and we will continue to do so. We do not want escalation, but the enemy is attacking and destroying our cities and villages. [The means] of self-defense differ from one Palestinian to the other, some of us use stones and others knives.”[9]

Overt And Covert Threats To Escalate The Violence

In addition to congratulating the perpetrators of the stabbings and calling to continue the violence, members of the Fatah Central Committee even called to intensify it. ‘Azzam Al-Ahmad stated that, if Israel continued its “crimes” against the Palestinians, events would spiral out of control, and added: “There is a resemblance between the Israeli forces and the ISIS terror organization.”[10]

An October 13 announcement issued by the Al-Aqsa Brigades welcomed the attacks and called to “escalate them on the ground against the Israeli occupation that has made everything permitted, including killing women, children and the elderly in cold blood… The response will be painful and shocking, and we will act to light a fire under the filthy feet of the Zionists.”[11]

25298Image on Al-Aqsa Brigades website shows knife cleaving a Star of David, with the caption: “Palestinian, stand up and resist, and never relinquish your right” (3asfa.com, October 13, 2015)

Endnotes:

[1] Al-Ayyam (PA), October 15, 2015.

[2] See MEMRI TV Clip No. 5080, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas: Jews “Have No Right to Defile the Al-Aqsa Mosque with Their Filthy Feet”, September 16, 2015.

[3] Al-Ayyam (PA), October 15, 2015.

[4] Amad.ps, October 13, 2015.

[5] Al-Ayyam (PA), October 15, 2015.

[6] Amad.ps, October 13, 2015.

[7] Amad.ps, October 13, 2015.

[8] Amad.ps, October 13, 2015.

[9] Amad.ps, October 9, 2015.

[10] Amad.ps, October 13, 2015.

[11] 3asfa.com, October 13, 2015.

Terror slowdown as Israelis absorb first shock and gear up for the next round

October 14, 2015

Terror slowdown as Israelis absorb first shock and gear up for the next round, DEBKAfile, October 14, 2015

Central_Bus_Station_in_Jerusalem_14.10.15Anti-terror operations in Jerusalem

Israelis have absorbed the first shock of the wave of Palestinian terror unleashed in the last two weeks. The Palestinians are likely absorbing the package of tough penalties for terror and deterrents the Netanyahu government began putting together Tuesday night. Wednesday, Oct. 14, saw relative calm after the deadly violence reached a new peak Tuesday with the first Palestinian shooting attack on a Jerusalem bus – this time by adults.

The relative lull is expected to last only until the Palestinians and their Israeli Arab supporters take stock, before inevitably launching their next round of terror.

Meanwhile, Jerusalem saw “only” two stabbing attacks. In the first, a terrorist wearing army fatigues tried to stab a Border Guardsman at Nablus Gate in Jerusalem, and was shot and killed by policemen and visitors. Two hours later, another terrorist attacked a woman bus passenger at the city’s central station. A police special ops officer ran after him up and shot him dead.

One of the counter-terror measures that went into effect Wednesday morning was the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee’s approval of Emergency Order 8 authorizing the mobilization of an additional 600 Border Guards combatants from the reserves, over and above the 800 already called up.

DEBKAfile’s military experts note that the rapid processing of this new intake with equipment and operational orders will reduce the need to detach from their regular duties the 500 IDF soldiers allocated for manning the streets of Jerusalem.

That is all to the good, because managing police officers and soldiers in harness is bound to be problematic.

Israel is not the first country to inject military strength into its capital to fight terror. The British and French governments have been known to deploy paratroops and armed personnel carriers into the streets of London and Paris when they were beset by a rising level of terror. This deployment never lasted more than a few days – just enough to calm a terrified citizenry.

But Jerusalem is different. The state of security is such that soldiers once in place may face a long-term stay in the capital to contend with a long-running security threat.

Another difficulty is that the soldiers assigned to this mission have been pulled out of tank, artillery and engineering courses with no training for combating urban terror. Those who come from outside the city will furthermore need to familiarize themselves with a new environment and its rhythms.

The Jerusalem Police are special. They must cope with complex, demanding and multi-tasking challenges to the town’s security. More than one terror attack may take place at different parts of the city. Unlike ordinary soldiers, they are trained and have the experience to quickly spot and take action against a terrorist in ordinary clothes who may pop up suddenly from among a large crowd to sow death.

A seasoned police officer can judge when to cut the assailant down to save lives and when to arrest him.

But the IDF servicemen to be recruited for anti-terror duties in support of security forces are much younger than the average policeman – on average around nineteen years old. Their firearms and kits are designed for conventional warfare on the Golan in the north or the Gaza Strip in the south – not for securing civilian buses or heavy vehicular and pedestrian traffic in a crowded city center.

That Border Guards reservists were hastily mobilized at the same time as the military units indicates that someone had the sense to understand that the presence of IDF troops on the streets and buses was good psychological first aid for people jumping at shadows for fear of a lone terrorist, but hardly an effective operational arm for the war on terror.

Looking beyond the ‘third intifada’

October 14, 2015

Looking beyond the ‘third intifada’ Jerusalem PostLouis Rene Beres, October 13, 2015

ShowImage (14)Funeral in the Shuafat refugee camp in east Jerusalem, on October 10, 2015. (photo credit: AHMAD GHARABLI / AFP)

About expected Palestinian state intentions, there is little real mystery to fathom. It should already be widely understood that any new state of Palestine could provide a ready platform for launching endlessly renewable war and terrorism against Israel. Significantly, not a single warring Palestinian faction has ever even bothered to deny such overtly criminal intent. On the contrary, aggressive intent has always been openly embraced, fervently cheered as a distinctly sacred “national” incantation.

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It’s farewell to the drawing-room’s civilized cry, The professor’s sensible where to and why, The frock-coated diplomat’s social aplomb, Now matters are settled with gas and with bomb.”

– W.H. Auden, Danse Macabre

With apparent suddenness, and a very deliberate brutality, Palestinian terrorists are launching a new wave of indiscriminate assaults they proudly hail as a “third intifada.”

But behind the protective veneer of language, where homicide is conveniently transfigured into revolution, these latest Arab attacks remain what they have always been – that is, crudely camouflaged expressions of rampant criminality.

Jurisprudentially, this is all perfectly obvious. Prima facie, under all pertinent international law, calculated assaults on mostly women and children can never be sanitized or justified. Always, rather, they represent codified crimes of war and crimes against humanity.

Always, such crimes are unpardonable.

Oddly enough, even after the painfully long history of egregious Palestinian crimes carried out against noncombatant populations, a sizable portion of the “international community” still seeks to encourage Palestinian statehood. Self-righteously, of course, and with ritualistic indignation directed against Israeli “intransigence,” the “civilized community of nations” remains willing to rip a 23rd Arab state from the still-living body of Israel. Even now, as the Palestinians remain rigorously segmented into barbarously warring factions – into opponents who enthusiastically maim and torture each other, all while cooperating in doing the same to their commonly despised Israeli victims – world public opinion calls naively for Palestinian “self-determination.”

Even now, when any new Palestinian state could quickly come to resemble an already-fractured Syria, the United Nations and its secretary – general seem much more concerned with comforting the markedly unheroic Palestinian criminals than with protecting fully innocent Israeli civilians.

Unapologetically, and whatever their unhindered and ongoing excesses, Fatah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are easily able to incite followers to inflict and then celebrate incessant harms upon Israel.

At some point, it is likely that such harms, joyously imposed with a reassuring impunity, could involve diverse weapons of mega-terrorism, including assorted chemical, biological, or even nuclear agents.

In this last category of insidious choice, Palestine, after formalizing its sought-after condition of statehood or sovereignty, could be placed in an optimal position to assault Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor.

This plainly sensitive facility was previously attacked, in both 1991 and again in 2014. Those earlier missile and rocket barrages, which produced no ascertainably injurious damages to the critical reactor core, had originated with Iraqi and Hamas aggressions, respectively.

About expected Palestinian state intentions, there is little real mystery to fathom. It should already be widely understood that any new state of Palestine could provide a ready platform for launching endlessly renewable war and terrorism against Israel. Significantly, not a single warring Palestinian faction has ever even bothered to deny such overtly criminal intent. On the contrary, aggressive intent has always been openly embraced, fervently cheered as a distinctly sacred “national” incantation.

A September 2015 poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey research – the leading social research organization in the Palestinian territories – found that a majority of Palestinians unhesitatingly reject a two-state solution.

When asked, as a corollary question, about any preferred or alternate ways to establish an independent Palestinian state, 42 percent called for “armed action.”

Only 29% favored “negotiation,” or some sort of peaceful resolution.

Not much mystery here.

On all currently official Hamas and Palestinian Authority (PA ) maps of “Palestine,” Israel has been removed altogether, or identified exclusively as “occupied Palestine.”

By these revealingly forthright and vengeful depictions, Israel has already been forced to suffer a “cartographic genocide.” Unambiguously, from the standpoint of any prospective Palestinian state policies toward Israel, such incendiary maps are portentous, predictive and possibly even prophetic.

What is not generally recognized is that a Palestinian state, any Palestinian state, could play a determinedly serious role in bringing some form of nuclear conflict to the Middle East. Palestine, of course, would itself be non-nuclear; but that’s not the issue. There would remain several other ways in which the new state’s predictable infringements of Israeli security could make the Jewish state more vulnerable to an eventual nuclear attack from Iran, or, in the even more distant future, from a newly-nuclear Arab state.

This second prospect would likely have its core origins in understandable reactions to the plainly impotent Vienna pact with Iran.

Following the July 14, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA ), several Sunni states in the region, most plausibly Egypt and/ or Saudi Arabia, will likely feel compelled to “go nuclear.”

In essence, any such considered Sunni Arab nuclear proliferation would represent a more-or-less coherent “self-defense” reaction against expectedly escalating perils, once still-avoidable dangers now issuing from the reciprocally fearful Shi’ite world.

There is also more to expect from the Sunni side. Here, in actions that would have no apparent connection to expected Iranian nuclearization, Islamic State (IS) could begin an avowedly destructive march westward, across Jordan, and all the way to the borders of West Bank (Judea/Samaria). There, should a Palestinian state already be established and functional, dedicated Sunni terrorist cadres would likely make quick work of any deployed Palestinian army. In the event that a new Arab state had not yet been suitably declared – that is, in a fashion consistent with codifying Montevideo Convention (1934) expectations – invading IS forces (not Israel) will have become the principal impediment to Palestinian independence.

Credo quia absurdum – “I believe because it is absurd.” In either case, any such IS or IS-related conquest could create another available platform for launching relentless terrorist attacks across the region.

In time, of course, most of these murderous attacks would be aimed precisely at Israel.

IS, as everyone can see, is on the move. It has already expanded well beyond Iraq and Syria, notably into Yemen, Libya, Egypt and Somalia.

Although Hamas leaders generally deny any IS presence in Gaza, that terrorist group’s black flag is now seen more and more regularly in that expressly Palestinian space.

In principle, at least, Israel could sometime find itself forced to cooperate with Hamas against IS, but any reciprocal willingness from the Islamic Resistance Movement, whether glaringly conspicuous or beneath the radar, is implausible.

Additionally, Egypt regards Hamas as part of the much wider Muslim Brotherhood, and prospectively, just as dangerous as IS.

In any event, after Palestine, and even in the absence of any takeover of the new Arab state by IS forces, Israel’s physical survival would require increasing self-reliance in existential military matters.

Such expansions, in turn, would demand: 1) an appropriately revised nuclear strategy, involving deterrence, defense, preemption and warfighting capabilities; and 2) a corollary conventional strategy.

Significantly, however, the birth of Palestine could impact these strategies in several disruptive ways.

Most ominously, a Palestinian state could render most of Israel’s conventional capabilities substantially more problematic. It could thereby heighten certain eventual chances of a regional nuclear war.

Credo quia absurdum. A nuclear war in the Middle East is not out of the question. At some point, such a conflict could arrive in Israel not only as a “bolt-from-the-blue” surprise missile attack, but also as a result, whether intended or inadvertent, of escalation.

If, for example, certain enemy states were to begin “only” with conventional and/or biological attacks upon Israel, Jerusalem might then respond, sooner or later, with nuclear reprisals. Or if these enemy states were to begin hostilities with certain conventional attacks upon Israel, Jerusalem’s own conventional reprisals might then be met, at least in the future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.

For now, this second scenario could become possible only if Iran were to continue its evident advance toward an independent nuclear capability. It follows that a persuasive Israeli conventional deterrent, at least to the extent that it could prevent enemy state conventional, and/or biological attacks, would substantially reduce Israel’s risk of any escalatory exposure to a nuclear war. Israel will need to maintain its capacity for “escalation dominance,” but Palestinian statehood, on its face, could still impair this overriding strategic obligation.

A subsidiary question comes to mind. Why should Israel need a conventional deterrent at all? Israel, after all, seemingly maintains a capable nuclear arsenal and corollary doctrine, even though both still remain “deliberately ambiguous.”

And there arises a still further query. Even after “Palestine,” wouldn’t enemy states desist from launching conventional and/or biological attacks upon Israel, here, out of an entirely reasonable and prudent fear of suffering a nuclear retaliation? Not necessarily. Aware that Israel would cross the nuclear threshold only in certain extraordinary circumstances, these enemy states could be convinced – rightly or wrongly – that so long as their attacks were to remain non-nuclear, Israel would respond only in kind. Faced with such probable calculations, Israel’s ordinary security would still need to be sustained by conventional deterrent threats.

A strong conventional capability will still be needed by Israel to deter or to preempt conventional attacks – attacks that could, if undertaken, lead quickly, via escalation, to various conceivable forms of unconventional war.

Credo quia absurdum. It is still not sufficiently understood that Palestine could have serious effects on power and peace in the Middle East. As the creation of yet another enemy Arab state would need to arise from the intentional dismemberment of Israel, the Jewish state’s strategic depth would inevitably be diminished. Over time, therefore, Israel’s conventional capacity to ward off assorted enemy attacks could be correspondingly reduced.

Paradoxically, if enemy states were to perceive Israel’s own sense of expanding weakness and desperation, this could strengthen Israel’s nuclear deterrent. If, however, pertinent enemy states did not perceive such a “sense” among Israel’s decision-makers (a far more likely scenario), these states, now animated by Israel’s conventional force deterioration, could then be encouraged to attack. The cumulative result, spawned by Israel’s post-Palestine incapacity to maintain strong conventional deterrence, could become: 1) defeat of Israel in a conventional war; 2) defeat of Israel in an unconventional chemical/biological/nuclear war; 3) defeat of Israel in a combined conventional/unconventional war; or 4) defeat of Arab/Islamic state enemies by Israel in an unconventional war.

For Israel, a country less than half the size of Lake Michigan, even the “successful” fourth possibility could prove intolerable. The tangible consequences of a nuclear war, or even a “merely” chemical/ biological war, could be calamitous for the victor as well as the vanquished.

Under such exceptional conditions of belligerency, the traditional notions of “victory” and “defeat” would likely lose all serious meaning.

Although a meaningful risk of regional nuclear war in the Middle East must exist independently of any Palestinian state, this uniquely serious threat would be still greater if a new Arab terrorist state were authoritatively declared.

Palestine, it has increasingly been argued, could sometime become vulnerable to overthrow by even more militant jihadist Arab forces, a violent transfer of power that could then confront Israel with an even broader range of regional perils.

In this connection, IS, again, could find itself at the outer gates of “Palestine.” In such a scenario, it is plausible that the IS fighters would make fast work of any residual Palestinian defense force, PA and/ or Hamas, and then absorb Palestine itself into a rapidly expanding Islamic “caliphate.”

Before anything remotely decent could be born from such a determined theocracy, a very capable sort of gravedigger would have to wield the forceps.

The “third intifada” is just another legitimizing term for remorseless Palestinian terrorism. Should it transform the always fratricidal Palestinian territories into another corrupted Arab state, Palestine, either by itself, or as a newly-incorporated part of a still-growing IS “caliphate,” would become another Syria. Even more significantly, Palestine could bring specifically nuclear-based harms to the broader region.

Then, quite predictably, all pertinent “matters” would be settled “with gas and with bomb.”

Concerning Israel, Don’t Trust Proportional Journalism

October 11, 2015

Concerning Israel, Don’t Trust Proportional Journalism, Israel Today, Tsvi Sadan, October 11, 2015

The foreign media dealing with Israel has transformed from news reporting to malice.

Known for his crisp Facebook posts, Israeli Lev Solodkin is wondering how British people would have reacted if during WWII, newspapers had reported that “a 21-year-old German peace-loving pilot was killed by British security forces over British skies”?

This, however, is exactly the type of reports about Israel emerging from many respected media outlets.

UK newspaper The Independent is involved in such distorted journalism when it portrays the present stoning and knifing of Jews as legitimate “riots” and “clashes” carried out by peace-loving Palestinians. A Saturday issue of this newspaper reported that five Palestinians were killed and five Jews were stabbed. The headline and content of the report was every bit like that of an innocent Luftwaffe pilot flying aimlessly over Britain.

Though disguised as news, the Independent piece is a political manifest carefully crafted to create the impression of defenseless Palestinians killed during legitimate “protests” against murderous Israel. The paper’s reporter spared no effort to make sure this point was not missed. The fact that armies around the world recruit 18-year-old men for active military service doesn’t matter much to theIndependent, which described the Palestinians involved as “boys.”

“A 19-year-old Palestinian boy stabbed three police officers” creates the desired impression of criminal Israel killing defenseless, under-aged youths. In the same manner, to legitimatize the Palestinian violence allegedly sparked by the Jewish presence on the Temple Mount, the Independent chose to replace the Jewish Temple Mount with the Muslim “Noble Sanctuary” (Haram al-Sharif) to create the desired impression of who the real perpetrator is.

RT America (Russian Television) has done much the same in the way it chose to report on the “day of rage” that took place last Wednesday in New York City. The anchor gave American Palestinian activist Lamis Deek an undisturbed time to spew her venom. Deek did a fine job lying through her teeth about the reasons leading to the present Palestinian stabbing frenzy. Among her lies was blaming the Israeli government for allowing para-military settlers to rain terror on innocent Palestinians. Deek’s rant went unchallenged.

The New York Times didn’t fare much better. A headline from Tuesday inserts doubts about news coming from Israeli officials, thus conditioning readers to trust reports coming from the NYT’s “proportional journalism.”

For example, a headline concerning the killing of Eitam and Naama Henkin announces that “Israel says 5 from Hamas confess in Israeli couple’s killing.” What “Israel says” is contrasted with what the NYT says, which is, “Israeli forces fatally shooting two Palestinian teenagers — one 13” who was “innocent and was shot in cold blood.” The report goes on to give the names of innocent dead Palestinian “kids,” while omitting names of Israelis killed by such innocent “kids.”

The “peace-loving German pilot” type of journalism, euphemized as “proportional,” has become so prevalent that it is no longer possible to escape, let alone justify it. Considering the means of news proliferation 70 years ago, Germans could barely hide behind the excuse of “I didn’t know.” Today, however, none but a villain could say the aforementioned reports are even worth the ink used for their printing.

Curfews and Internet restrictions can’t be avoided for reining in Palestinian street terror

October 10, 2015

Curfews and Internet restrictions can’t be avoided for reining in Palestinian street terror, DEBKAfile, October 10, 2015

Nablus_Gate10.10.15Holding the line at Nablus Gate, Jerusalem

After nearly a month of rampant Palestinian violence and murder, Israel’s leaders and its forces of law and order were Saturday, Oct. 10, fast approaching an unavoidable decision to impose a curfew on the Old City of Jerusalem – both to bring the stabbing attacks at every corner under control, and to isolate this source of contagion from the disorders spreading in the West Bank and across Israeli Arab coummunities.

Once a curfew is in place, the security authorities – whose forces are stretched to the limit by the multiple outbreaks proliferating across the country – will be able to deal quietly and systematically with the disorders.

A major hindrance until now has the refusal of the heads of government, especially Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, to realistically appreciate the dynamic of the wave of terror, and their insistence on playing down its eruption in one place after another as random and uncontrolled.

They keep on harping on the incitement and lies spread by Mahmoud Abbas and radical Israeli Muslim leaders, although the street has since taken over.

Friday night, Ya’alon commented in a television interview that terrorists had committed “only” four fatal stabbings out of a population of four million.

This challenge was taken up with a vengeance. That night, Israeli Arabs staged riotous disturbances from northern Israel to the south, attacking security forces and blocking highway traffic on Routes 6, 444 and 65, with rocks and burning tires.

The following morning, the focus of violence switched back to Jerusalem and the Palestinians: A 16-year old Palestinian stabbed and badly injured two elderly religious Jews wrapped in prayer shawls.

He was shot dead when he brandished the knife against approaching police officers. A second Palestinian was killed after stabbing three police officers at Damascus Gate.

This sequence of events indicates that, while there is no single controlling hand behind them, they are nonetheless orchestrated in a way that keeps every Israeli constantly looking over his or her shoulder for fear of being taken off guard by the next attack – whether on an Israeli highway or town like Afula or Petach Tikva, or in Judea and Samaria. But Jerusalem remains the constant focal point because it is a powerful unifier.

Official Israeli spokesmen have tried relaying messages to Abbas and putting out reports that he has responded favorably to appeals. Saturday, Netanyahu asked US Secretary of State John Kerry to intercede with the Palestinian leader for help to quieten things down. However, none of the three, any more than Jordan’s Abdullah, holds the levers for controlling current events.

That is because they are being orchestrated to a large extent through messages of incitement and false inflammatory information which bounce back and forth between the cell phones and social media networks of young Palestinian and Israeli Arabs hungry for trouble.

In the latest example, the networks were flooded all day with calls to torpedo the international soccer match between Israel and Cyprus taking place Saturday night at the Teddy stadium in Jerusalem – even to setting the arena on fire.

This move had two objects: to dilute police strength in the Old City in order to reinforce security at the stadium and to terrify the public into staying away from the game.

Israel’s security authorities are finding they can no longer avoid stepped up measures, such as a curfew on the Old City of Jerusalem and blocking selected Palestinian cell phone networks and Internet connections and IPs of known inciters. This method was used by Turkish President Erdogan to stem the rising tide of opposition against him in 2014.

These measures are far from pleasant and will be frowned on by many people including Israelis. But they may possibly calm the turbulence and save Israeli and Palestinian lives.

Time is running out. Wednesday, Oct. 14, members of the Middle East Quartet are due to arrive in Israel. The Netanyahu government can’t afford to be found at a loss in the face of a major threat to its authority in Jerusalem. The ineffectual measures applied till now no longer serve.

Column One: Abbas must be stopped

October 9, 2015

Column One: Abbas must be stopped, Jerusalem Post, Caroline Glick, October 8, 2015

ShowImage (12)PA President Mahmoud Abbas.. (photo credit:AMMAR AWAD / REUTERS)

All the Palestinian terrorist attacks that have been carried out in recent weeks share one common feature. All the terrorists believe that by attacking Jews they are protecting the Temple Mount from destruction.

And why shouldn’t they believe this obscenity? Everywhere they go, every time they turn on their televisions, read the paper, go to school or the mosque they are told that the Jews are destroying al-Aksa Mosque. Al-Aksa, they are told, is in danger. They must take up arms to defend it from the Jews, whatever the cost.

One man stands at the center of this blood libel. The man who propagates this murderous lie and orchestrates the death and mayhem that is its bloody harvest is none other than the West’s favorite Palestinian moderate: PLO chief and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

On September 16 Abbas gave a speech. It was broadcast on PA television and posted on his Facebook page. In it, he incited the Palestinians to kill Jews. In his words, “Al-Aksa Mosque is ours.

They [the Jews] have no right to desecrate it with their filthy feet. We won’t allow them to do so and we will do everything in our power to defend Jerusalem.”

Abbas added, “We bless every drop of blood spilled for Jerusalem. This is clean and pure blood, blood that was spilled for God. It is Allah’s will that every martyr will go to heaven and every wounded [terrorist] will receive God’s reward.”

Two weeks later, Abbas opened his address before the UN General Assembly with the same lies, threats, and incitement.

Almost exactly a year ago, Abbas spewed the same bile in a speech, with the same murderous consequences. In a speech before Fatah’s executive committee last October, Abbas said, “We must prevent them [the Jews] from entering the holy site in every possible way. This is our holy site, this is our al-Aksa and our church [the Church of the Holy Sepulchre]. They have no right to enter them. They have no right to desecrate them. We must prevent them from entering. We must block them with our bodies to defend our holy sites.”

In subsequent weeks, Abbas’s words were rebroadcast 19 times on Palestinian television.

During that period, Arab terrorists massacred rabbis in prayer at a Jerusalem synagogue, attempted to assassinate human rights activist Yehudah Glick, and murdered Jews standing at light rail stops in the capital.

Eleven Israelis were butchered in that terrorist onslaught.

Then as now, Abbas and his lieutenants not only incited attacks, they incentivized would be perpetrators to kill Jews.

Every year, the same PA that claims perpetual poverty pays more than $100 million to terrorists imprisoned in Israeli jails. Their salaries range between four to seven times the average PA salary, depending on the lethality of the attacks they carried out.

Popular awareness of the financial benefits of terrorist activities has played a critical role in motivating Palestinians to attack Jews. This is made clear by the actions in recent weeks of several of the supposedly “lone wolf” attackers in the hours before they struck. Several of them – like their predecessors in last year’s onslaught – announced their intention to become martyrs to protect al-Aksa from the Jews on their Facebook pages immediately before they carried out their attacks.

Money may be the greatest incentive Abbas and his PA provide for potential terrorists. But it isn’t the only one. There is also the social status they confer on terrorists and their families. Every would-be terrorist knows that if he succeeds in killing Jews, he will be glorified by the Palestinian media and his family will be embraced by the PA establishment – first and foremost by Abbas himself, who has made a habit of meeting with terrorists and their families.

Presently, Israel’s security brass is embroiled in a bitter dispute with our elected leaders regarding the nature of the current terrorist offensive. The dispute bubbled to the surface Wednesday night when the generals used military reporters to criticize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for blaming Abbas for the violence.

The generals insist that Abbas is a good guy.

He’s trying to calm the situation, they argue, and Israel needs to support him.

From the looks of things, the IDF seems to have the upper hand in this fight. This is the only way to read Netanyahu’s announcement Wednesday night that he is barring government ministers and members of Knesset from visiting the Temple Mount until further notice. Netanyahu’s move is nothing less than a signal that he accepts Abbas’s premise that there is something wrong with Jews exercising their right to visit Judaism’s holiest site.

The generals’ rationale for defending Abbas is fairly straightforward. Throughout the current Palestinian terror onslaught they have continued to cooperate with Abbas-controlled Palestinian security forces in Judea and Samaria.

These forces cooperate with the IDF in seeking out and arresting terrorists from Hamas and other groups that are not subordinate to Abbas. The fact that Abbas has ordered his men to work with the IDF has convinced the generals that he is a positive actor. So as they see it, he must be protected.

In their view, Israel must limit its counterterrorism operations to tactical operations against trigger pullers and their immediate commanders and ignore the overarching cause of the violence.

In behaving in this manner, our security brass is being willfully blind to the fact that Abbas is playing a double game. On the one hand, he orders his forces to be nice to IDF officers in Central Command when they fight terrorist cells from Hamas and other groups not loyal to Abbas, and so wins their appreciation.

But on the other hand, Abbas works with those same terrorist forces, incites them to attack, and rewards them for doing so.

Perhaps the most outrageous aspect of the IDF’s insistence that Abbas is critical to its counterterrorism efforts is that the IDF’s own data demonstrate that Abbas has played an insignificant role in quelling terrorist attacks against Israel.

As Jerusalem Post columnist Evelyn Gordon showed in an article in Commentary this week, according to official data, from 2002 when Palestinian terrorist activities in the areas were at their peak until 2007, when Israel began transferring security control over some Palestinian cities to Abbas’s forces, levels of terrorism went down 97 percent. Even after Israel began permitting Abbas to deploy his security forces to Nablus and Jenin, the IDF has continued to operate at will in these areas, often on a nightly basis.

As Gordon noted, the only place Abbas has exercised sole security control was in Gaza. From September 2005, when Israel removed its military forces from Gaza until Hamas expelled Fatah forces from the areas in June 2007, Abbas’s forces had full control over Gaza. During this time, his forces did nothing to prevent Hamas – and Fatah forces – from attacking Israel with thousands of mortars and rockets. His forces did nothing to prevent the massive transfer of advanced weaponry to Gaza from Egypt and Iran.

True, since his forces were routed in Gaza, Abbas has ordered them to work with the IDF in Judea and Samaria to prevent Hamas from overthrowing him. But at the same time, he continuously seeks to form a unity government with Hamas.

He funds Hamas. He glorifies its terrorists. And he refuses to condemn their attacks against Israel.

Moreover, while ordering his men to help the IDF to protect him from Hamas, he leads the diplomatic war against Israel internationally. The goals of that war are to harm Israel’s economy and deny Israel the right to self-defense.

Our political leadership’s reluctance to stand up to the army is understandable. It is nearly impossible to order the IDF to take action it opposes.

At some point though, the government is going to rein in our insubordinate generals. Fortunately, the government doesn’t need the IDF to deal with Abbas and destroy his capacity to foment and direct attacks against Israel.

Our elected officials have the authority to go after the twin foundations Abbas’s terrorist offensive on their own. Those foundations are the incitement and the financial incentives he uses to motivate Palestinians to attack Jews.

On the financial end, the Knesset should pass two laws to dry up the wells of terrorism financing.

First, the Knesset should pass a law stipulating that all property belonging to terrorists, and all property used by terrorists to plan and carry out attacks, will be seized by the government and transferred to the victims of their attacks.

Moreover, all compensation paid to terrorists and their relatives pursuant to their attacks will be seized by the government and transferred to their victims.

The second law would relate to Israel’s practice – anchored in the Oslo Accords that Abbas revoked last month at the UN – of transferring tax revenues to the PA. The Knesset should pass a law prohibiting those transfers unless the Defense Minister certifies that the PA has ceased all terrorism- related activities including incitement, organization, financing, directing and glorifying terrorist attacks and terrorists.

Until he so certifies, all revenues collected should be used to pay PA debts to Israeli institutions and to compensate victims of Palestinian terrorism.

As for the incitement, the government needs to go to the source of the problem – Abbas’s blood libel regarding Jewish rights to the Temple Mount.

As things stand, Abbas is exacting a price in human lives for his obscene anti-Jewish propaganda about our “filthy feet defiling” the most sacred site in Judaism. By barring elected officials from visiting the Temple Mount, not only is the government failing to exact a price for Abbas’ obscene propaganda. It is rewarding him and so inviting Abbas to expand his rhetorical offensive.

To remedy the situation an opposite approach is required. Rather than bar elected officials from visiting the Temple Mount, Netanyahu should encourage them to do so. Just as he sent a letter to Jordan’s King Abdullah telling him that Israel is preserving the status quo on the Temple Mount, so he should write a similar letter to our lawmakers.

In his letter, Netanyahu should say that in keeping with the status quo, which protects the rights of members of all religions to freely enter the Temple Mount, so he commits the government to protect the rights of all believers of all religions to ascend the Mount.

The Palestinian terrorist onslaught now raging against us is not spontaneous. Abbas has incited it and is directing it. To stop this assault, Israel must finally take action against Abbas and his machinery of war. Anything less can bring us nothing more than a temporary respite in the carnage that Abbas will be free to end whenever he wishes.

The Palestinians’ New Intifada

October 8, 2015

The Palestinians’ New Intifada, Gatestone InstituteBarry Shaw, October 8, 2015

  • “I saw a mob of 40 to 50 masked Palestinians on the side of the road. They were holding rocks and cinder blocks. … I have no doubt that I would be dead now if I hadn’t used my gun. They were going to kill me.” – Josh Hasten, Oct. 7, 2015.
  • Arab children watch other Arab children on television throw rocks and firebombs, and speaking of knifing and shooting Jews, and they want a part of the action.
  • When Arabs hear from their leaders that Jews are “desecrating” Islamic holy places with their “filthy feet” and plotting to destroy them, it is a code, telling them to go out and attack Jews.

Yesterday, a friend, Josh Hasten, was set upon by a crowd of rock-wielding Palestinians, while he was driving to Jerusalem. “I saw a mob of 40 to 50 masked Palestinians on the side of the road. They were holding rocks and cinder blocks,” Hasten said. “As they approached my car, I took out my gun and fired one round in the air. The shot obviously scared them and they ran up the hill away from the road. I have no doubt that I would be dead now if I hadn’t used my gun. They were going to kill me.”

In Europe and the West, acts of terrorist violence are relatively rare; in Israel, they occur several times a day — on a regular basis.

Last week, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas spoke at the United Nations, highlighting Israeli “crimes,” but without specifying any. He is, apparently, aware of losing control of the Palestinian “street,” which now seems to feel closer to radical elements within Palestinian society — especially since Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad take credit for recent murders in Israel.

Palestinians who commit terrorist attacks are not, as in Europe, radicalized primarily by social media or clerics. They are, rather, radicalized primarily by their own Palestinian Authority or Hamas leadership. Arab children watch other Arab children on television throwing rocks and firebombs, and speaking of knifing and shooting Jews, and they want a part of the action.

Meanwhile, the Israeli government is prevented by international pressure from disbanding these groups or arresting their leaders. The equivalent is as if Britain were plagued by daily terror attacks directed by a leadership based in Birmingham, and with the British government prevented from acting against the source, under pain of condemnation and punishment from the European Union and the United Nations.

The current wave of Arab riots and terrorist attacks has been compared to an “intifada,” an Arabic word meaning “uprising” or “shaking off” — a word used to describe the desire of Palestinian Arabs to drive the Jews out of the land.

The violent demonstrations and riots are initiated and orchestrated by the Palestinian leadership, seemingly concerned about losing the support of their own people. Palestinian leaders have been seeing, in local surveys and student elections, a growing disenchantment with the corrupt and sclerotic Fatah-led Palestinian governance, as well as a growing popularity for Hamas.

Palestinian Authority leaders have also been seeing the rise in popularity of rival groups at the same time as they are being ignored by the world’s media and diplomatic community, who are busy with Iran, Russia, Syria and ISIS.

The current violence has a greater religious component than earlier intifadas.[1] Perhaps seeing that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are strongly Islamic, PA President Mahmoud Abbas latched onto the extremist — albeit totally incorrect — Islamist theme that Jews are trying to destroy Islamic holy places. He thereby ignited a firestorm of competition among radical groups as to which faction could incite the most violence.

1280Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (right) ignited competition among radical groups as to which faction could incite the most violence. Left: official PA media incite Palestinians, from a young age, to murder Jews.

Hamas, ruling in the Gaza Strip, has made no secret of its wish to deepen its influence in the West Bank. This time, it was assisted by the Palestinian Authority, which used the Jewish high holy days as an excuse to accuse Jews praying at the Western Wall, of trying to take over Muslim holy places. The Western Wall, a holy place to Jews, is all that is left of the Jews’ Second Temple, which was destroyed by the Romans in 70 CE.

When Muslims hear from their leaders that Jews are “desecrating” Islamic holy places with their “filthy feet” and plotting to destroy them, it is a code, telling them to go out and attack Jews.

In addition, Muslim women, in organized groups funded by the Islamic Movement in Israel, have been bused to Jerusalem, and paid to abuse, and sometimes use violence, to prevent non-Muslims, mainly Jews, from visiting the Temple Mount. The women punch, kick, spit, and hurl insults at Jews (and often other non-Muslims) who visit or attempt to visit the Temple Mount.

For years, Mahmoud Abbas has been whipping up the Palestinians with claims — all false, as can be seen throughout the Bible — that Jews have no heritage or history in Jerusalem, and therefore have no right to be there. It is a charge he repeats despite a Jewish presence and culture in the land that dates back over 3000 years.

Incitement to violence leads to actual violence. So, on October 3, an impressionable 19-year-old Arab man became a murderer. Muhannad Halabi, before setting out on his killing spree, wrote on his Facebook page, “The Third Intifada has erupted!…Defending the sanctity of Al-Aqsa and its women is out pride and honor… We know only that Jerusalem is undivided and that every part of it is holy.”

This young killer was apparently caught up in the passion of the false claims of Abbas that Jews were defiling Islamic holy places with their “filthy feet,” that he took a knife and entered the Jerusalem’s Old City in search of Jews. There, he attacked a Jewish family that on its way to pray at the Western Wall. He stabbed Aharon Banita, and his wife, Adele. Hearing the screams of the victims, 41-year-old Rabbi Nehemia Lavi, armed with a pistol, ran over to stop the attack. Halabi stabbed and killed Lavi, took his gun, and shot and wounded 2-year-old Matan Banita. Seconds later, security forces arrived and killed Halabi in a shootout. Adele and Matan Banita survived.

During the attack, as the wounded and bleeding Adele Banita ran through the street screaming for help, she was jeered at, spat on, hit and insulted by Arab passersby and local Arab shopkeepers. None of them helped her. She reported later from the hospital that many of them screamed at her to die. The anti-Jewish incitement by Palestinians resulted in the killing of four Jews – simply because they were Jews.

In the minds of radicalized Palestinians, there is no difference between shooting or stabbing women and children, and shooting men.[2]

Many in the Western media fail to portray events in Israel accurately. The most morally tortured headline came from BBC News. Its headline on October 4 read “Palestinian shot dead after Jerusalem attack kills two.” It appeared a clear effort to make readers believe that the Palestinian terrorist was the victim.

Unless the West persuades Abbas to stop the incitement, perhaps by linking financial aid to performance, his intifada will continue to escalate.

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[1] In the first “intifada,” from 1987-1993 Arabs attacked primarily Israeli soldiers and police, mainly with rocks and firebombs. The second “intifada” (2000-2005), planned by the late Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, included widespread attacks — suicide bombings, shootings and car bombs — against any and all Israeli targets, mainly civilians.

[2] In 2011, for example, three of the six children from the Fogel family in the village of Itamar were hacked to death in their beds, along with their parents, when Palestinian terrorists broke into their home. It was near Itamar that four small children from the Henkin family miraculously avoided death under a hail of bullets on October 1, when Palestinians murdered their parents (Eitam and Naama Henkin) in a drive-by shooting. The nine-year-old son recited the mourner’s prayer at his parents’ graves the following day.