H/T Peter
Trump Announces US to Withdraw from JCPOA, video
Posted May 8, 2018 by Peter HofmanCategories: Uncategorized
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (1966) End Battle
Posted May 8, 2018 by Joseph WoukCategories: Uncategorized
Iran, Angry and Divided, Fears Deeper Crisis if Nuclear Deal Ends
Posted May 8, 2018 by Louisiana SteveCategories: Iran nuclear deal, Iran nuke inspections
Tags: Crying Time Again
By Thomas Erdbrink May 8, 2018 New York Times
Source: Iran, Angry and Divided, Fears Deeper Crisis if Nuclear Deal Ends
{Again, I say this is a not-so-Trump-friendly source. Regardless, Iran will suffer, but not as much as our soldiers did when blown up by Iranian IED’s – LS}
{UPDATE: President Trump reinstated all the sanctions and said he will add the most severe sanctions possible. I suspect the banking system in Iran will be targeted and Iran’s oil income will be cut off. In other words, their economy will see new lows post haste. We shall see their reaction as this whole thing is still in motion and will be for some time. – LS}
TEHRAN — The sense of crisis in Iran runs deep and wide. The economy is in free fall. The currency is plummeting. Rising prices are squeezing city dwellers. A five-year drought is devastating the countryside. The pitched battle between political moderates and hard-liners is so perilous that there is even talk of a military takeover.
Now, the lifeline offered by the 2015 nuclear deal, which was supposed to alleviate pressure on Iran’s economy and crack open the barriers to the West, is threatened, too: President Trump is expected to announce that he is withdrawing the United States from the agreement as soon as Tuesday, according to European diplomats.
The chief loser will be the country’s moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, who will now look weakened, foolish and burned for the risk he took in dealing with the Americans. His opponents, hard-liners, will gain influence, analysts say.
But in the long term, the unraveling of the nuclear agreement could be bad news for the entire Iranian leadership, already buffeted by mounting popular dissatisfaction over the economy and a lack of freedoms and prospects. It could be bad news for average Iranians, too.
“We will see more migration, more unemployment, more bankruptcies, more impoverishment,” said Amirhossein Hasani, who once made kitchen equipment but now tries to make a living selling foreign exchange. “Some might think this will lead to regime change, but protests will be cracked down and the government will be able to run the country. We will just get poorer.”
Even before Mr. Trump’s decision, the nuclear deal had not lived up to its promise of economic salvation for Iranians. Mr. Rouhani sold it as the solution to many of the country’s problems. He promised that foreign companies would flood Iran with investment and know-how, bringing jobs and opportunity to millions of unemployed people.
He also said that the compromise would lift Iran out of its international isolation, something illustrated by several airlines restarting connections to Tehran after the deal had been struck.
Students clashed with police officers in riot gear around Tehran University during anti-government protests in December. But the unrest was nationwide.CreditEuropean Pressphoto Agency
But deeper-rooted problems such as uncompetitive investment laws, widespread corruption and arrests of dual nationals by hard-line security forces dampened the boom the president had promised. Foreign businesses showed up in sizable numbers, but balked at the conditions that confronted them.
But what really cut back the potential benefits of the agreement was American sanctions, which have continued to prevent any serious bank from working in Iran. They also prevent almost all normal financial transactions, depriving Iran of much-needed credit and foreign investments.
The return of even broader sanctions in some form could put even more pressure on the economy.
“Someone, please change our fate, whoever, even Trump,” said Ali Shoja, a cleaner who said he can’t afford to support his three sons. “I used to be a driver, now I clean. What’s next? I cannot become a beggar.”
Hard-liners, who have long lost popular support but control security forces, the judiciary and state television, are set to declare victory, since they have always argued that the United States can never be trusted in any deal.
They will use the opportunity to undermine Mr. Rouhani and to try to seize power. But Mr. Rouhani himself came in after eight years with a hard-liner, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, at the helm. That both moderate and hard-line approaches have now failed has only deepened the sense of crisis.
Dissatisfaction over state policies is so widespread many wonder if the Islamic Republic and its current ideology are even sustainable, fueling talk of bringing in a military strongman to set things straight.
“This is a big failure for Mr. Rouhani — America has cheated on him by not keeping its promises,” said Jalal Jalalizadeh, a former member of Parliament. “But in the end we are all losers. Now it is clear that only direct and open talks with the United States can ever solve this.”
In fact, a collapse of the nuclear deal doesn’t leave Iran with many options. Iran’s every move will be scrutinized by the United States and Israel, perhaps sparking a military confrontation the country can hardly afford.
A rally against anti-government protesters in January. Hard-liners hope an end to the nuclear deal would reinforce their arguments against trusting the United States.CreditEbrahim Noroozi/Associated Press
Hard-liners say Iran should return to enriching uranium, as it was doing before the nuclear agreement.
“We will break the cement of Arak; we will reopen the heart of the nuclear plant,” Abolfazl Hassan Beigi, a hard-line member of Parliament, told local media, referring to a nuclear site Iran said it has disabled as part of the deal. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will start its nuclear activities again more powerfully than before, which will be a loss for America and its allies.”
But others point out that such moves could invite military action.
“I am for direct talks and transparent talks between Iran and America, the sooner the better,” said Abolghasem Golbaf, an analyst promoting change in the country. The talks should be open, for all to follow, he said. “When they talk secretly, they may make mistakes and nothing can be corrected. Iran and America should sit face to face at negotiation table.”
If the nuclear deal falls apart, Iranians are likely to find plenty of blame to go around, directing anger at both sides in the political deadlock, as well as at the United States. Nationwide protests in December and January — aimed at the entire leadership class — illustrated the depth of Iranian disillusionment.
“We could witness a blind explosion of anger and we will not know the outcome of such an event,” said Davoud Hermidas-Bavand, a professor of international relations who has taught at the National Defense University.
“Many people are ready to support anyone who can provide them some hope,” he said. “But you have to take into account that Iranians are also nationalistic and will definitely not blindly follow countries they view as harmful to Iranian interests.”
Some say they are surprised to even hear people saying they support Mr. Trump, whom they see as someone willing to solve their problems.
“When I sit in the taxi or bus I sometimes overhear common people saying they adore Trump, he at least honors his promises in campaign, they say,” said Ali Sabzevari, a now-unemployed publisher. “Powerless people take resort to a hero, no matter who is the hero — Hitler or Trump, anyone can be their hero.”
Others disagree.
“The common people will hate America more if Trump withdraws,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, a hard-line analyst. “They will face hardship and be poor. They will hate Trump. That’s good
Trump decides to exit nuclear accord with Iran
Posted May 8, 2018 by Louisiana SteveCategories: Iran nuclear deal
Tags: Withdrawal Pains
By JOSH LEDERMAN and CATHERINE LUCEY AP 5-8-2018
Source: Trump decides to exit nuclear accord with Iran
{May I remind you this is an AP story. As a result, it will not be too flattering of Mr. Trump. That being said, now…let’s really talk. – LS}
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump plans to follow through on his campaign threat to pull out of the landmark nuclear accord with Iran, according to two people familiar with his thinking, dealing a profound blow to U.S. allies and potentially deepening the president’s isolation on the world stage.
Trump’s decision means Iran’s government must now decide whether to follow the U.S. and withdraw or try to salvage what’s left of the deal. Iran has offered conflicting statements about what it may do — and the answer may depend on exactly how Trump exits the agreement.
The 2015 pact itself does not contain any provisions for leaving, but Trump was expected to re-impose most, if not all, of the sanctions on Iran that were eased under the deal. That would erase the economic benefits promised to Iran under the deal and be tantamount to the United States walking away.
It wasn’t immediately clear which sanctions would be slapped back on Iran and how quickly. But grace periods of a few months to half a year are expected to be granted so that businesses and governments can wind down operations that would violate re-imposed U.S. sanctions, the individuals said.
A slower withdrawal process could allow more room for Trump to reverse course later and decide to stay — if he secures the additional restrictions on Iran that European nations tried unsuccessfully to negotiate to prevent him from withdrawing. Indeed, as administration officials briefed congressional leaders about Trump’s plans Tuesday, they emphasized that just as with a major Asia trade deal and the Paris climate pact that Trump has abandoned, he remains open to renegotiating a better deal, one person briefed on the talks said.
The agreement, struck in 2015 by the United States, other world powers and Iran, lifted most U.S. and international sanctions against the country. In return, Iran agreed to restrictions on its nuclear program making it impossible to produce a bomb, along with rigorous inspections.
In a burst of last-minute diplomacy, punctuated by a visit by Britain’s top diplomat, the deal’s European members gave in to many of Trump’s demands, according to officials, diplomats and others briefed on the negotiations. Yet they still left convinced he was likely to re-impose sanctions.
Macron was to have a conference call with British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about half an hour before Trump’s announcement.
Trump spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping about his decision Tuesday. Macron vigorously supports the deal and tried to persuade Trump to stay committed to it during a visit to Washington last month.
The British Foreign Secretary traveled to Washington this week to make a last-minute pitch to the U.S. to remain in the deal, according to a senior British diplomat. The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the British objective will remain to uphold and maintain the deal.
Hours before the announcement, European countries met to underline their support for the agreement. Senior officials from Britain, France and Germany met in Brussels with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Abbas Araghchi.
If the deal collapses, Iran would be free to resume prohibited enrichment activities, while businesses and banks doing business with Iran would have to scramble to extricate themselves or run afoul of the U.S. American officials were dusting off plans for how to sell a pullout to the public and explain its complex financial ramifications, said U.S. officials and others, who weren’t authorized to speak ahead of an announcement and requested anonymity.
Building up anticipation, Trump announced on Twitter he would disclose his decision at 2 p.m. at the White House.
In Iran, many were deeply concerned about how Trump’s decision could affect the already struggling economy. In Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani sought to calm nerves, smiling as he appeared at a petroleum expo. He didn’t name Trump directly, but emphasized that Iran continued to seek “engagement with the world.”
“It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this,” Rouhani said.
Under the most likely scenario, Trump would allow sanctions on Iran’s central bank — intended to target oil exports — to kick back in, rather than waiving them once again on Saturday, the next deadline for renewal, said individuals briefed on Trump’s deliberations. Then the administration would give those who are doing business with Iran a six-month period to wind down business and avoid breaching those sanctions.
Depending on how Trump sells it — either as an irreversible U.S. pullout, or one final chance to save it — the deal could be strengthened during those six months in a last-ditch effort to persuade Trump to change his mind. The first 15 months of Trump’s presidency have been filled with many such “last chances” for the Iran deal in which he’s punted the decision for another few months, and then another.
Other U.S. sanctions don’t require a decision until later, including those on specific Iranian businesses, sectors and individuals that will snap back into place in July unless Trump signs another waiver. A move on Tuesday to restore those penalties ahead of the deadline would be the most aggressive move Trump could take to close the door to staying in the deal.
Even Trump’s secretary of state and the U.N. agency that monitors nuclear compliance agree that Iran, so far, has lived up to its side of the deal. But the deal’s critics, such as Israel, the Gulf Arab states and many Republicans, say it’s a giveaway to Tehran that ultimately paves the path to a nuclear-armed Iran several years in the future.
Iran, for its part, has been coy in predicting its response to a Trump withdrawal. For weeks, Iran’s foreign minister had been saying that a re-imposition of U.S. sanctions would render the deal null and void, leaving Tehran little choice but to abandon it as well. But on Monday, Rouhani said Iran could stick with it if the European Union, whose economies do far more business with Iran than the U.S., offers guarantees that Iran would keep benefiting.
For the Europeans, a Trump withdrawal would also constitute dispiriting proof that trying to appease him is futile.
The three EU members of the deal — Britain, France and Germany — were insistent from the start that it could not be re-opened. But they agreed to discuss an “add-on” agreement that wouldn’t change the underlying nuclear deal, but would add new restrictions on Iran to address what Trump had identified as its shortcomings. Trump wanted to deter Iran’s ballistic missile program and other destabilizing actions in the region. He also wanted more rigorous nuclear inspections and an extension of restrictions on Iranian enrichment and reprocessing rather than letting them phase out after about a decade.
Negotiating an add-on agreement, rather than revising the existing deal, had the added benefit of not requiring the formal consent of Iran or the other remaining members: Russia and China. The idea was that even if they balked at the West’s impositions, Iran would be likely to comply anyway so as to keep enjoying lucrative sanctions relief.
Although the U.S. and Europeans made progress on ballistic missiles and inspections, there were disagreements over extending the life of the deal and how to trigger additional penalties if Iran were found violating the new restrictions, U.S. officials and European diplomats have said. The Europeans agreed to yet more concessions in the final days of negotiating ahead of Trump’s decision, the officials added.
IDF chief cancels engagements due to “operational discussions”
Posted May 8, 2018 by Joseph WoukCategories: Uncategorized
Source: IDF chief cancels engagements due to “operational discussions” – DEBKAfile
IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gady Eisenkot Tuesday called off his public engagements. This was explained by the urgent need for “operational discussions.” He was due to address the annual Herzliya conference Tuesday night.
Iran in the US Backyard
Posted May 8, 2018 by Louisiana SteveCategories: Iranian expansion
Tags: Iran Go Home
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif (left) meets with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on August 27, 2016 in Caracas, Venezuela. (Image source: Euronews video screenshot)
by Judith Bergman May 8, 2018 at 5:00 am Gatestone Institute
Source Link: Iran in the US Backyard
{You ever get the feeling the world would be a better place without Iran’s current regime? It’s long past time we enforce the Monroe Doctrine. – LS}
Iran and Hezbollah have been operating in Latin America since the 1980s, effectively undisturbed. During this time, Iran and its proxy, the terrorist organization Hezbollah, have been Islamizing Latin America, seemingly to create a forward base of operations for the Islamic Republic in the backyard of the United States.
No Latin American country has designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization: Hezbollah can operate with relative impunity there. In April 2017, a Hezbollah operative, Mohamad Hamdar, arrested in Peru, was acquitted of all terrorism-related charges. The Peruvian court found that Hamdar’s role within Hezbollah was in itself insufficient to consider him a terrorist[1]. This legal vacuum regarding Hezbollah might also be why Islamic terrorism, drug-trafficking and organized crime in the region is frequently underestimated.
According to testimony at a United States House of Representatives panel hearing on Iran’s global terrorism network on April 17, 2018, Iran and Hezbollah have converted and radicalized thousands of Latin Americans to Shia Islam. In some Latin American countries, such as Venezuela, Iran’s and Hezbollah’s efforts have even been promoted by local political elites. Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami — of Lebanese and Syrian origins and with ties to both cocaine trafficking and Hezbollah — oversaw the illicit sale and distribution of at least 10,000 Venezuelan passports and other documents to persons from Syria, Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries. These reportedly included Hezbollah terrorists and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. More than a decade ago, a US congressional report warned that Venezuela was providing support to radical Islamic groups, including the supply of identity documents. El Aissami could, in the foreseeable future, become president of Venezuela.
Not only has Latin America’s passive acceptance of Iranian infiltration also allowed the Islamic Republic to create large networks of mosques and cultural centers across the region; in addition, Iran and Hezbollah operate in multiple areas and across multiple sectors, both licit and illicit, apparently to strengthen and expand their influence in Latin America and to enrich Hezbollah as a way to finance its growing terrorist and paramilitary activities.
These areas of operation encompass diplomacy, commercial enterprise, religious dominance, and perhaps most significantly, substantial criminal activity. Iran has employed diplomacy to evade sanctions imposed on it before the Iran “nuclear deal.” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, then president of Iran, visited Latin America six times during 2005-2012, and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif went on a tour of six Latin American nations in 2016. These diplomatic efforts resulted in, among other things, access to the use of Venezuelan territory to advance Iran’s solid rocket-fuel production.
Culturally, Iran has helped Hezbollah establish itself as the dominant force among Shia Muslim communities throughout the region, and has taken control of their mosques, schools and cultural institutions. In 2012, there were 32 Iranian cultural centers across Latin America the purpose of which is to facilitate the spread of the Iranian Islamic revolution; today, less than a decade later, the number of centers has grown to more than 100. Among other ways of presumably spreading its influence, Iran also runs a Spanish-language 24-hour news broadcast, HispanTV — operated by IRIB, Iran’s state-owned public broadcasting corporation — which broadcasts across Latin America.
Hezbollah has become a substantial international crime syndicate, which utilizes its position in Latin America to deal in drug trafficking, weapons trafficking, human trafficking, trade in counterfeit goods and money laundering, the proceeds of which it uses to finance its activities.
Drugs, such as cocaine, are funneled into the United States to be sold there. Some investigators believe that Hezbollah amasses $ 1 billion a year from its criminal activities, which involve close cooperation with Latin American drug cartels and criminal syndicates. Together, these create havoc in Latin America and contribute to driving immigration into the United States. One expert recently described Hezbollah as “the gold standard” of the crime-terror convergence.
In 2008, the US began a secret law enforcement project, Operation Cassandra, to stop Hezbollah’s activities in Latin America. According to an exposé in Politico, however, the Obama administration obstructed that operation:
“In practice, the administration’s willingness to envision a new role for Hezbollah in the Middle East, combined with its desire for a negotiated settlement to Iran’s nuclear program, translated into a reluctance to move aggressively against the top Hezbollah operatives, according to Project Cassandra members and others.”
After Israel’s revelations on April 30, 2018, that the Iran deal was based on Iranian lies, it is probably safe to conclude that the Obama administration empowered Iran and its proxy in Latin America to ensure the Iran deal, which has apparently turned out to be nothing but a smokescreen for Iran’s nuclear plans.
Having a seasoned and generously state-funded terrorist organization such as Hezbollah in the US’s backyard unsurprisingly poses a genuine threat to the US homeland. According to Emmanuel Ottolenghi, speaking at the April hearing on Iran’s global terrorism networks:
“A survey of cases prosecuted against Hezbollah operatives in the past two decades shows that the terror group remains a threat to the security of the U.S. homeland and the integrity of its financial system. Iran and Hezbollah sought to carry out high casualty attacks against U.S. targets multiple times. Additionally, they built networks they used to procure weapons, sell drugs, and conduct illicit financial activities inside the United States.
…
“operatives blend in; they nestle within existing expatriate communities; they find spouses; and set up seemingly legitimate businesses, acquiring permanent residency and citizenship in the process – all attributes that are part of their cover story”.
One recent example of Hezbollah operatives in action in the United States was the arrest of Samer El Debek and Ali Mohammad in New York. Both held US citizenship and had been trained by Hezbollah — including in the use of weapons such as rocket-propelled grenade launchers and machine guns — and acted on its behalf in the US. The two were charged with serious terrorism charges, such as conducting surveillance of potential targets in America[2].
The question is, whether the US government will adopt a comprehensive strategy to counter the ongoing efforts of Iran and Hezbollah to solidify their base of operations in Latin America against the United States and US interests. Such a strategy, as pointed out by several experts at the April 17 hearing, does not currently appear to be in place.
Judith Bergman is a columnist, lawyer and political analyst.
[1] The prosecution appealed and Hamdar will be tried again this year on the same terrorism charges in the Peruvian Supreme Court. If convicted he will be the first Hezbollah operative to be sentenced in Latin America, amounting to a de facto designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist group in Peru.
[2] These included military and law enforcement facilities in New York City, as well as conducting missions in Panama to locate the U.S. and Israeli Embassies and to assess the vulnerabilities of the Panama Canal and ships in the Canal.
PM threatens enemies with ‘steel fist’ as IDF prepares in the north
Posted May 8, 2018 by Joseph WoukCategories: Uncategorized
Source: PM threatens enemies with ‘steel fist’ as IDF prepares in the north – Israel Hayom
At ceremony marking IDF’s 70th anniversary, PM Netanyahu says those who threaten to destroy Israel should know they “cannot overcome us and they are putting themselves in grave danger” • IDF raises alert in north in readiness for any attack from Syria.
Mati Tuchfeld, Israel Hayom Staff, Erez Linn and Adi Hashmonai
|
An IDF tank in northern Israel
| Photo: Eyal Margolin / JINI
|
The Israel Defense Forces marked its 70th anniversary on Monday amid heightened tensions in northern Israel and along the Gaza border.
Top military and government officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Reuven Rivlin and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, spoke at the ceremony, held at Latrun in central Israel.
While most of the speakers refrained from directly mentioning Iran, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot told the audience, “The volatility in various areas, our enemies’ attempts to gain power, and the Iranian attempts to deepen its foothold near our borders all demand initiative and determination on our part to bolster readiness for any scenario.”
Netanyahu did not mention Iran specifically in his speech but issued a strong warning to Israel’s enemies.
“Whoever hurts us, we will hurt them,” Netanyahu said.
“The enemies who threaten us with destruction should know that they will encounter an iron wall. They cannot overcome us and they are putting themselves in grave danger.
“Our steel fist is clenched and ready.”
Lieberman also touched on the mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, chiefly due to Iran’s growing presence in bordering Syria, saying that Israel “is not interested in escalation, but our role is to be ready for any scenario.”
Meanwhile, the IDF is on high alert in northern Israel in preparation for possible Iranian-instigated surface or air attacks in response to a series of strikes on Iranian targets in Syria that Iran attributes to Israel.
A senior IDF official said Monday evening that the Iranians do not want to fight a war with Israel, and so will likely look for ways of retaliating without sparking a full-scale conflict.
Israeli defense officials believe that Iran has several options for mounting a limited response including firing missiles at IDF troops with the goal of scoring casualties or having Hezbollah or other Shiite militias carry out a limited action to try to breach Israel’s northern borders with Syria or Lebanon and carry out terrorist attacks inside Israel.
Meanwhile, residents of northern Israel are continuing their daily routines. Neither the Golan Regional Council nor the Katzrin Regional Council has issued any special instructions for residents.
Shefi Mor, tourism director for Kibbutz Merom Golan, said, “It still hasn’t started. I’m getting ready, that’s for sure. We are aware of the defense preparations, but we haven’t gotten any special instructions or calls about [reservation] cancellations.”
Tourism remained steady at Kibbutz El Rom on the northern Golan Heights, although some residents noted that the civil war in Syria, which has encroached on Israel’s northern border, has prompted an unusual IDF presence.
“There are concerns, but things are absolutely routine here. We feel that we have someone to depend on, that the IDF is ready, alert, and prepared. We’re just waiting for orders,” one resident said.
Extraordinary Western military movements in Md East before Trump’s Iran decision
Posted May 8, 2018 by Joseph WoukCategories: Uncategorized
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Unusual Western military movements in the Middle East in the past 48 hours may tie in with President Donald Trump’s decision to jump forward his decision on the Iran nuclear deal.
He released a Twitter post on Monday, May 7 saying: “I will be announcing my decision on the Iran Deal tomorrow from the White House at 2:00 pm.” – i.e. four days before the May 12 deadline. DEBKAfile‘s Washington and military sources report exclusively that the president’s announcement came against the background of unusual US, British and French forces heading for the Middle East and deploying in countries bordering on Syria. These startling events point suggestively in two directions:
- Trump may have decided on the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran – although this is not definite.
- He is moving ahead with this decision in the light of war tensions mounting between Israel and Iran and Hizballah in Syria and Lebanon.
Our military sources also reveal fleets of US warplanes and advanced surveillance drones working around the clock to track the slightest military movements around Syrian and Lebanese Mediterranean shores. They also report that Britain has in the last few hours transferred another squadron of advanced Typhoon fighter jets to the Middle East, with France adding Rafale and Mirage 2000 jets. Some of these flights reached their forward positions through Israel’s air space.
IDF bases prepare for possible Iranian strike
Posted May 8, 2018 by Joseph WoukCategories: Uncategorized
Source: IDF bases prepare for possible Iranian strike
Analysis: Analysis: The Air Force prepares for possible scenarios its pilots may encounter in upcoming weeks amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran; IAF’s main concern is Iranian precision-targeted missiles aimed at northern bases.
The Israeli Air Force is preparing for a possible Iranian retaliatory strike using precision-targeted missiles at northern bases, according to an IDF media brief Sunday intended to deter Tehran from such an attack.
The army fears, it may be assumed, Iran using Shiite militias in Syria, which—with Hezbollah‘s assistance—will carry out precision strikes against a northern army base in retaliation for recent strikes on Iranian targets in Syria itself, such as the strike on the T-4 Airbase near Homs, which was attributed to Israel.If such a scenario becomes reality—even in a minor, measured manner, even if the missiles are intercepted by defense systems such as the Iron Dome or David’s Sling—the strike will provide a taste of what’s to come in the next northern conflagration.
Iranian missile threat (Photo: Reuters)
Specifically, the IDF may expect to encounter attempts by its northern adversaries to undermine the freedom of operations of the IDF in general and the air force in particular in an orderly, sophisticated and surgical manner—possibly even prioritized over targeting civilian communities on the Israeli home front.
The military is hectically preparing for precisely such an eventuality and has been doing so since before the most recent kerfuffle with Iran. Such a scenario has not been seen in the intervening two decades, with the military’s operational bases enjoying relative freedom of action at wartime.The aforementioned scenario has been taken into account in almost all of the exercises held at air force bases, and includes handling missile and rocket barrages or “suicide drones” aimed directly at bases where Israeli air squadrons operate with the express goal of crippling them.
As far as the IDF is concerned, the goal is not merely a PR achievement that Iran, Syria or Hezbollah are trying to attain, but rather a significant attempt to disrupt operational routine in the Israeli military’s most important bases—both during routine and war times.
T-4 Airfield
In the IDF’s internal discussions surrounding preparations for such a conflict, therefore, one of the defense establishment’s most sensitive interests has not been overlooked: the location of aerial defense batteries, and the dilemma of defending a vital interest or a medium-sized city.
Improvement in the defensive footprint of each aerial defense battery expand the operational flexibility on the matter and might allow protecting both types of targets—but coverage will not always be hermitic or full, and choosing which one to defend will likely be left up to the civilian ranks.
The drills the IDF has been holding to handle possible missile and rocket barrages on its bases include forces entering shelters when under fire, but other measures as well. In the past few years, the IDF has been shielding military sites from which important elements of the army’s power—such as flight squadrons—are housed, while taking additional actions in anticipation of the threat posed by Israel’s northern enemies being realized.”You can scramble planes from the Ramat David base within minutes to theaters in Syria and Lebanon, and the army’s top brass has realized the importance of continuing to operate the base’s three runways,” an air force officer explained.
“The Iron Dome should allow the IDF to continue fighting and will also defend communities adjacent to army bases,” he added.Passive defense measures in vital bases in the north will allow operational reserves in sensitive areas such as command bases, officials in the Air Force explained, which could turn the tide should they be attacked. The Air Force also improved its construction capabilities to quickly repair the tracks should they be hit.
“We assume they know our location during routine,” an IAF official said.
“Government officials expect the IAF to continue operating at all times, with full power and by all means of fighting. We are the central firepower based on elements that must work at all times. The runways must be ready, and fuel and ammunition have to keep on coming,” said another IAF officer.
“The thing that concerns the IAF the most is the enemy’s precision abilities, and keeping it from hurting our most valuable assets. We can deal with all of it defensively and offensively. The enemy keeps bringing in advanced aerial defense systems that challenge our aerial superiority,” he went on to say.
“We constantly deal with the enemy’s advancements by applying aerial force,” the IAF officer concluded.
Netanyahu’s warning for Israel’s enemies ahead of Trump announcement
Posted May 8, 2018 by Joseph WoukCategories: Uncategorized
Source: Netanyahu’s warning for Israel’s enemies ahead of Trump announcement – Middle East – Jerusalem Post
Though the premier did not directly mention Iran, he said that anyone who strikes Israel should know that Israel will strike them back.
MAY 8, 2018 03:09
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a weekly cabinet meeting in May 2018.. (photo credit: EMIL SALMAN/POOL)
Netanyahu’s comments, made during a ceremony at Latrun marking 70 years of the establishment of the IDF, come amid rising tensions with Iran and intelligence reports that Tehran is planning a missile strike against an Israeli military installation.
Though the premier did not directly mention Iran, he said that anyone who strikes Israel should know that Israel will strike them back. He said those threatening to destroy Israel will encounter an “iron wall” which they will not be able to penetrate.
And, he added, “our struggle is waged while maintaining a purity of arms, and in a continuous attempt to prevent, as much as possible, harming innocent civilians. There is no more ethical army than the IDF.”
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump tweeted on Monday that he plans to reveal his decision whether to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement on Tuesday, scheduled for 2 p.m. local time. The president had given European powers until May 12 to come up with “fixes” to the deal’s most controversial provisions. That’s the date by which he is required to inform Congress whether he will waive nuclear sanctions on Iran lifted by the landmark accord.
In a related development, Netanyahu’s former national security adviser Yaakov Amidror said that Jerusalem’s revelation a day earlier of Iranian plans to fire missiles at Israel from Syria was a signal to Tehran that Israel knows of these plans and will hold it responsible for its actions.
Amidror, speaking on a conference call sponsored by The Israel Project, said that it was important to reveal Iran’s intentions beforehand, in order to rob the Iranians of deniability.
He added that Iran is trying to create a “war machine,” in Syria, and is also employing the “Yemenite model in which they launch the rockets and missiles and stay behind others’ names.”
For instance, he said, the Houthis in Yemen, who are Iranian proxies, will fire rockets at Riyadh – and then Iran will say, “What do you want from us, it is the Houthis.”
“The Iranians cannot stay behind foreign names and pretend it is not them,” Amidror said. “It is clear that if Israel is attacked by any missiles, we know – and they know that we know – that this is the Iranians, and the consequences will be directed towards the Iranians.”
Amidror said that if the Iranians attack Israel – as they did three months ago when attempting to fly a drone with explosives into the country – “there will be consequences, such as a counterattack by Israel on Iranian interests.” The Iranians, he said, “will have to pay” if they attack Israel.
Amidror said that Israel would prefer to keep Iran from building a war machine in Syria now rather than later, when it will likely have acquired additional capabilities inside the country.
“We made a huge mistake in Lebanon,” he said. “We let Hezbollah get 120,000 rockets and missiles. We are not going to make that same mistake in Syria.”
MEANWHILE, Tehran might still abide by its commitments under a deal governing its nuclear work if the US withdraws from the agreement, assuming all other parties guarantee Iran will maintain its benefits, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani indicated on Monday.
According to state-run media, Rouhani called on Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany to “guarantee” that Iran would continue to receive the economic relief promised to it under the 2015 nuclear accord, even if the US pulls out. Otherwise, Tehran has a “logical plan” for an exit from the deal, the president said.
Rouhani’s comment seemed to hedge statements from other Iranian officials in recent days that previewed a swift withdrawal by Tehran following a potential US pullout this week.
Specifically, Trump wants Britain, France and Germany to agree on a strategy that will add terms to the existing agreement restricting Iran’s ballistic missile program; wants to expand access for UN nuclear inspectors to Iranian military sites; to combat Iran’s military posture in the region; and to rid the deal of expiration dates on “caps” limiting Iran’s enrichment of fissile material.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron agreed during a visit to the White House last month to negotiate on these terms if it
means preserving the existing deal. And now Britain’s Foreign Minister Boris Johnson says UK Prime Minister Theresa May will do the same.
Johnson is visiting Washington this week in a last-ditch effort to save the deal.
“We need to be tougher on Iran, and we need to fix the flaws in the deal, one of the most important being this sunset clause,” Johnson said during an interview on Fox News.
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Trump said the U.S. would immediately reimpose economic sanctions lifted under the deal, targeting critical sectors of Iran’s economy such as its energy, petrochemical and financial sectors.
“We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States. America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail,” the president warned.
“Those doing business in Iran will be provided a period of time to allow them to wind down operations in business involving Iran,” the White House said. However, “Those who fail to wind down such activities with Iran by the end of the period will risk severe consequences.”
Trump also cited the massive intelligence trove of documents, some 110,000 files, smuggled out of Tehran by Israel’s international Mossad intelligence agency, that revealed the details of Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program.
“At the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction: that a murderous regime desired only a peaceful nuclear energy program. Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie,” he said.
“The JCPOA failed to deal with the threat of Iran’s missile program and did not include a strong enough mechanism for inspections and verification,” the White House pointed out. “The JCPOA foolishly gave the Iranian regime a windfall of cash and access to the international financial system for trade and investment.”
Instead of using the money from the JCPOA to support the Iranian people at home, the regime has instead funded a military buildup and continues to fund its terrorist proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, he said.
Upon conclusion of his remarks, the president signed the proclamation putting his decision into immediate effect.