WarSclerotic

The IDF is bracing yet again for more Friday violence along the Gaza border fence, even amid reports of progress in Egypt- and UN-mediated efforts to restore quiet to area.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders met in Gaza and reportedly decided to lower the level of violence, though not stop the weekly protests at the fence.

Following a meeting that included Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, the various Palestinian factions – including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front – issued a statement saying that the “March of Return,” which began on March 30, will continue but without violence along the fence and incendiary balloons, and that protests are to be held at a distance of 500 meters from the barrier.

The groups issued a statement saying that the “March of Return” will continue until they reach their goal of “removing the blockade.”

The statement also expressed appreciation to “Egyptian, Qatari and UN efforts to ease the blockade and remove it.”

An Egyptian intelligence team – which has been at the center of effort to restore calm to pre-March levels – was in Gaza on Thursday. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Sharm el-Sheikh on Friday. His decision to cut off funding to Gaza has, according to Israel, fueled tensions in the Strip.

The apparent decision to tamp down the violence follows Israel’s agreement to allow Qatari-funded fuel to enter the Gaza Strip, to allow funds from the emirate to pay Hamas salaries and to extend fishing rights along the Gaza coast.

Earlier this week, a senior diplomatic official made clear that Israel would work with various international actors – including Qatar – to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and try to restore quiet to the area without having to embark on a major military offensive.

The official also said that last week the sides were on the cusp of an agreement, but they had dissolved with Friday’s violence at the fence and Islamic Jihad – acting on orders from Syria – firing a barrage of nearly 40 rockets at Israel.

The Palestinian factions’ apparent decision to tamp down the violence, at least until Sunday, is designed to let Egypt and the United Nations to continue their efforts to restore the situation to what it was prior to the start of the “March of Return.”

Both Egypt and the UN hope to create a long-term understanding, or even a cease-fire, that would ease the humanitarian situation for the two million people living in Gaza and prevent further outbreaks of violence between the IDF and Hamas.

Egyptian negotiators have also proposed a three-year agreement to reconcile the rival factions of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, according to an Army Radio report.

The proposed agreement would be enacted in stages. The PA would first take responsibility for civil services and the government ministries in the Gaza Strip that are now under Hamas control.

In its second phase, the PA would be in control of the police and the border crossings. If all went well for three years, Hamas’s military wing Izzadin al-Qassam would be placed under PA control as well.

Separately, elections would be held for a new Palestinian parliament and a new constitution would be drawn up, according to Army Radio.

The plan was designed by Egypt’s Gen. Ahmad Abd al-Khaliq, who has made four trips to Gaza and the West Bank in the past two weeks to secure agreements for the plan. He has also met with senior Israeli Defense Ministry officials.

The Egyptian plan includes detailed timetables and formulas for each stage. Hamas is prepared to consider the plan but is waiting for a response from Abbas.

Abbas in the past has rejected any plan that did not immediately place the security services under his control. He fears that any plan that maintains a separate security force for Hamas makes it more likely that the West Bank and Gaza could become two separate entities rather than one unified state, according to Army Radio.

In fact, while the Israeli government ultimately holds Hamas responsible for all violence emanating from the territory it controls, the Israel Defense Forces nevertheless explicitly blamed the latter wholly owned Iranian subsidiary for launching the missiles, alleging that “orders and incentives were given from Damascus with a clear involvement of the Revolutionary Guards al-Quds force.” Late Saturday morning IJ unilaterally declared a cease- fire, a message conveyed to Jerusalem via Egyptian intermediaries already attempting to forge a long-term truce between Israel and Gaza’s rulers in order to avert a fourth major conflict in the past decade.

Accordingly, many analysts have attributed IJ’s aggressiveness to a desire on the part of Tehran—a master at fomenting and then harnessing instability to its geopolitical advantage—to torpedo these efforts. Notably, the move follows the transfer by Russia to the Assad regime of the advanced S-300 defense system, which has partially curbed Israel’s freedom of action to target Iranian military infrastructure in Syria. This all comes on the backdrop of reports that the Islamic Republic delivered sophisticated GPS components to Hezbollah that will enable it to transform inaccurate projectiles into precision-guided missiles, thereby increasing their threat to the Jewish state.

During a September speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu sounded the alarm over Hizbullah, revealing satellite imagery of three sites in Beirut where Iran’s underling allegedly has built underground manufacturing facilities to produce missiles capable of hitting within a few meters of practically anywhere in Israel. Last week, the IDF accused the Shiite terrorist group of operating a fake environmental NGO in order to illegally maintain a presence in the buffer zone separating Lebanon and Israel. Finally, Israeli media claimed Hizbullah is working to construct forward- operating bases in the Syrian Golan Heights just a few kilometers from the border with Israel, a development that, if true, casts serious doubt over Moscow’s purported guarantee to prevent the militarization of the frontier.

Taken together, these circumstances suggest that Iran has become sufficiently emboldened to increase its proxy war against Israel. That said, while there are obvious acute concerns for Jerusalem, some observers are construing Tehran’s lashing out as evidence of the mullahs’ desperation amid civil unrest at home; ahead of the re-imposition of American sanctions on their country’s crucial oil sector; and as the United States-led alliance to counter the regime takes shape.

“As far as recent events go, the Iranians are like a cat in a corner and will try with whatever means they have in order to secure their continuity. They are facing daily mini-uprisings and they are very, very concerned,” Dr. Alireza Nourizadeh, Director of the London-based Center for Iranian and Arab Studies, explained to The Media Line.

“The upcoming measures in November are a nightmare for the Iranians as they are not 100 percent sure what President Trump will put on the table and how far he will go. Will there be a total ban on Iran’s oil exports, including [to such countries as] India, Japan and others? Everything is unclear and there are differences between the teams of President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

“In terms of what to watch for,” Dr. Nourizadeh imparted, “the Iranians are blocking the formation of [Lebanese Prime Minister] Saad Hariri’s cabinet, but if he is able to form one next week this could be a sign of compromise on [Riyadh’s part]. Also, Oman’s Sultan Qaboos [who in the past has acted as a conduit to the Iranian regime] hosted Prime Minister Netanyahu which also could be the start of a small rapprochement. Otherwise, I fear there will be very dark days to come.” As regards Jerusalem, specifically, the government seems intent on leveraging its burgeoning diplomatic ties with the Sunni-Arab world in order to stymie Iran’s hegemonic ambitions.

This would, by extension, at least for the time being reduce the probability of a conflagration along any one of three Israeli borders where the Islamic Republic has allied fighters stationed at the gates.

Indeed, Prime Minister Netanyahu on Friday made a public visit to Oman—the first by an Israeli leader to the Sunni Gulf nation in over two decades—after which Muscat called for the Jewish state’s regional integration irrespective of the amount of progress made towards achieving a peace deal with the Palestinians. Concurrently, Miri Regev became the first Israeli minister to pay an official visit to the United Arab Emirates, where an Israeli delegation is being permitted (as opposed to last year) to compete under its own flag in an international judo event. This, as U.S. President Donald Trump appears committed in the wake of the grisly murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi to maintaining strong bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia, which along with Israel is a centerpiece of the White House’s foreign policy goal of rolling back Iran’s expansionism and potential nuclearization.

“The most important problem for Israel is [not Islamic Jihad in Gaza] but Iran’s military intervention in Syria,” Dr. Col. (ret.) Ephraim Kam, a Senior Research Fellow at the Tel Aviv- based Institute for National Security Studies, stressed to The Media Line. “Previously, the Israeli army had the advantage as its capabilities are superior to those of Iran, but this could change with the S-300 system [in Syrian hands]. The big question is how this will impact on the IDF’s [maneuverability] and everyone is waiting and see.” That the Israeli military did not react to IJ’s attacks this weekend by targeting Iranian assets in Syria, coupled with the IDF’s reported lack of activity in that country since the downing last month by Syrian forces of a Russian reconnaissance plane, which the Kremlin nonetheless blamed on Jerusalem, is perhaps a telling indication of the emergence of a new, restrictive dynamic.

“With respect to Oman,” Dr. Kam continued, “Iran was almost certainly discussed but [Muscat] likely cannot help Israel much. On the other hand, The Trump administration’s approach is a big problem for the Iranians. He has backed out of the nuclear agreement, re- imposed financial penalties and has supported Israel [unequivocally] in its confrontations with the Islamic Republic. The regime does not understand the American leader and lacks an answer to his [unpredictability]. Accordingly, there is a chance Iran will be deterred moving forward.” To paraphrase Orwell, then, Tehran’s strong maneuvering against Israel—including in Syria, Lebanon and, most recently, in the Gaza Strip—may, in reality, be a short-term manifestation of a rising fear of its prospective weakening.

“As previously stated during our campaign, we intend to transfer the Brazilian Embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem. Israel is a sovereign state and we shall duly respect that,” he wrote.

Bolsonaro is a populist, ultra-conservative, Evangelical Christian whose victory Sunday signified a stunning shift in the direction of Brazil which has been ruled for the last 15 years by the far-left Workers Party. It also represents a tectonic shift in the country’s relationship with Israel.

In an interview Thursday with Israel Hayom, Bolsonaro repeated his pledge to move the embassy,

“Israel is a sovereign state. If you decide on your capital city, we will act in accordance. When I was asked during the campaign if I’ll do it [relocate the embassy] when I was president, I said yes, and that you’re the ones who decide on the capital of Israel, not other people,” he said.

He also said during the campaign that he would close the Palestinian Embassy in Brasilia. Asked about this in the interview, he said: “As for the Palestinian Embassy, it was built too close to the presidential palace … No embassy can be so close to the presidential palace, so we intend to move it. There’s no other way, in my opinion. Other than that, Palestine first needs to be a state to have the right to an embassy.”

Bolsonaro also said that Israel can now “count on having our vote in the UN. I know that often the vote is almost symbolic, but it helps to define the position a country intends to take. Rest assured that you can depend on our vote in the UN on almost all the issues having to do with Israel.”

In the past, Brazil was among those countries that almost always voted against Israel in international forums.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu phoned Bolsonaro shortly after his election victory to congratulate him, and said that he intends on attending his inauguration on January 1.

If Brazil does indeed go ahead with the embassy move, it will join the United States and Guatemala, who took similar steps. Paraguay also moved its embassy, but then quickly changed its mind following a change of presidents there and moved its embassy back to Tel Aviv.

Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein issued an immediate response, saying that Bolsonaro “is a great friend of the Jewish people and the State of Israel. Thank you very much Brazil!”

“I congratulate my friend the incoming President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, for his intention to move the Brazilian Embassy to Jerusalem,” Netanyahu said in a statement issued from Bulgaria, where he is visiting, “This is a historic, just and moving step.”