WarSclerotic

TEHRAN — Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Sunday accused “enemies” of the Islamic Republic of trying to sabotage the country’s missiles so that they would “explode mid-air” but said the bid was foiled.

“They tried as best as they could to sabotage a small part which we import so that our missiles would not reach their target and explode mid-air,” Fars news agency reported, quoting the Guards’ aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

“But they couldn’t do a damn thing because we had seen this coming from the start and had reinforced this sector,” he added, accusing Iran’s “enemies” of sabotage without naming any specific country.

Iran reined in most of its nuclear program under a landmark 2015 deal with major powers in return for sanctions relief, but has continued to develop its ballistic missile technology.

Earlier this month The New York Times reported that the administration of US President Donald Trump was pushing a secret program aimed at sabotaging Iranian rockets and missiles.

It said Washington was trying to “slip faulty parts and materials into Iran’s aerospace supply chains” as part of a campaign to undercut Tehran’s military.

In May, Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal  known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

UN Security Council Resolution 2231 — adopted just after the nuclear deal — calls on Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.”

Tehran insists that its missile program is “purely defensive” and compliant with the resolution but it has developed medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching arch-foe Israel.

Hajizadeh, whose remarks were also reported by Tasnim news agency, said similar sabotage attempts had happened before and targeted Iran’s nuclear and oil sectors.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — As Iran marked the 40th anniversary of its Islamic Revolution, a white-turbaned Shiite cleric at one commemoration targeted President Hassan Rouhani, a fellow clergyman, with this sign: “You who are the cause of inflation; we hope you won’t last until spring.”

Already lashed by criticism over his collapsing nuclear deal and renewed tensions with the US, the relatively moderate Rouhani faces anger from clerics, hard-line forces and an ever-growing disaffected public that now threatens his position.

Iranian presidents typically see their popularity erode during their second four-year terms, but analysts say Rouhani is particularly vulnerable because of the economic crisis assailing the country’s rial currency, which has hurt ordinary Iranians and emboldened critics to openly call for his ouster.

Though such a move has happened only once in the Islamic Republic’s four-decade history, the popular discontent heard on streets throughout Iran could now make it possible.

“I don’t care who is in the presidential palace: a cleric, a general or anybody else,” said Qassim Abhari, who sells hats and socks on the streets of Tehran. “We need someone who creates jobs and firmly pushes the brake pedal on rising prices.”

It’s been a long fall for Rouhani, who secured the 2015 nuclear deal after two years in office and won the praise of Iranians, who flooded the streets to celebrate it. Under the deal, Iran limited its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

But the benefits of the deal never reached much of the Iranian public. Even before President Donald Trump pulled America from the accord in May, uncertainty over its future caused the rial to crater, fueling sporadic, nationwide protests.

Now the rial is dropping again, down to 133,000 to $1. It had been 32,000 to the dollar at the time of the deal. On social media, hard-liners share price lists showing food staples like beans, rice and tomato paste rising as much as 238 percent.

People walk around the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, February 7, 2019 (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Hard-liners stopped parliament speaker Ali Larijani, an ally of Rouhani, from addressing a crowd in Karaj, only 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of Tehran. Rouhani’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, typically collected, appeared visibly frustrated at times during a recent security conference in Munich.

Hassan Abbasi, a retired general in Iran’s hard-line Revolutionary Guard, which answers to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave a speech after Karaj saying he believed people will spit on Rouhani, Larijani and Zarif in the streets over the nuclear deal after they leave office. He said they are “shivering” over the accord’s collapse.

“Mr. Hassan Rouhani, Mr. Zarif and Mr. Larijani, go to hell,” Abbasi said to applause.

Tension between hard-liners and more-moderate forces within Iran are nothing new. The Islamic Republic’s political structure muddles who wields power between paramilitary forces within the Guard and the country’s civilian government. Reformist President Mohammad Khatami faced similar pressures in his second term, which then gave way to hard-line populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

But Khatami didn’t face the same grinding economic pressure, or an American president like Donald Trump, whose administration has taken a maximalist approach toward pressuring Tehran. Analysts say that only further weakens Rouhani’s hand.

“You, Mr. President, have only 15 to 20 percent of the power” within Iran’s government, the pro-Rouhani daily newspaper Jomhouri Eslami said in a January editorial. “You cannot run the country with this amount of power and be accountable for all its difficulties and problems.”

Rouhani himself seemed to acknowledge the pressure he faces during a visit to the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on Monday.

“Presidential elections happen every four years,” he said. “When people voted for a particular viewpoint, all should go after that and support” it.

Nine hard-line lawmakers have put forward a measure to disqualify Rouhani as president. His dismissal would require two-thirds of parliament’s 290 members, but there is a precedent. In 1981, parliament disqualified the liberal Abolhassan Banisadr as president, and then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini dismissed him.

Iranian shoppers walk through the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, on February 7, 2019 (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Iranian law also allows Rouhani to resign, and criminal charges could push him from his post. His brother, Hossein Fereidoun, is on trial over corruption charges that his supporters call politically motivated.

Mahmoud Vaezi, a spokesman for Rouhani, on Wednesday dismissed those pursuing impeachment as belonging to “a group in parliament that opposes everything.” However, they aren’t the only source of pressure.

Reformists, those who want to change Iran’s political system from the inside, have grown increasingly disenchanted with Rouhani over his inability to end the house arrests of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi. Rouhani ran for election in 2013 and 2017 promising to free the two leaders of the 2009 Green Movement.

Meanwhile, hard-line clerics have opposed his administration’s efforts to join international anti-money-laundering conventions, fearing that could cut off support to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group and others. State television, long controlled by hard-liners, has played up speeches by military officials and increasingly airs segments glorifying those who fought in the 1980s war in Iraq.

“When Rouhani will not be in power, people will choose his alternative,” said hard-line lawmaker and cleric Mojtaba Zolnouri, who signed onto the Rouhani impeachment effort. “Whoever people choose, we welcome.”

Rouhani’s four-year term runs until 2021. But Tehran-based political-economic analyst Saeed Leilaz echoed the sentiments of many in saying the next few weeks could prove crucial to the embattled president. Some have suggested even ending the position of president and returning to a parliamentary system.

“In the spring, parallel with intensifying pressures and problems, Rouhani may resign or the (government’s) structure may change,” he said.

WASHINGTON (AFP) — President Donald Trump insisted Friday he was not pulling an about-face on his Syria withdrawal plans, after it was announced hundreds of US troops would remain in the war-torn country.

The White House quietly dropped the news late Thursday that around 200 American “peacekeeping” soldiers would remain in Syria indefinitely, amid fierce criticism of Trump’s decision to withdraw America’s more than 2,000 troops there by April 30.

“I am not reversing course,” Trump said at the White House, noting that 200 soldiers was only a “very small, tiny fraction” of the overall presence.

Senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham heralded the move, claiming the residual forces would somehow catalyze a bigger presence by European allies who had balked at the idea of committing troops to Syria minus an American ground presence.

“This 200 will attract probably 1,000 Europeans,” Graham said in an interview with Fox News.

Trump, an avid Fox viewer, said he watched Graham and supported leaving “a small force with others. Whether it’s NATO troops or whoever it might be, so that (Islamic State) doesn’t start up again.”

Trump declared victory over IS in December despite thousands of fighters remaining and a continued effort to clear jihadists from a final scrap of territory. The decision prompted his defense secretary Jim Mattis to quit.

Critics have decried a number of possible outcomes from a US precipitous withdrawal, including a Turkish attack on US-backed Kurdish forces and a resurgence of IS.

Men suspected of being Islamic State fighters are searched by members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) after leaving the Islamic State’s last holdout of Baghouz in Syria’s northern Deir Ezzor province, February 22, 2019.
(Bulent Kilic/AFP)

Apart from the US, currently only France and Britain have a handful troops on the ground in Syria helping train local forces in the US-led effort against IS.

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan visited Europe last week and attempted to convince allies to furnish a troop presence in Syria after the US pulls out.

But he struggled to persuade other countries why they should risk their forces with America gone.

Graham claimed “thousands of Europeans” had been killed by IS fighters coming from Syria into Europe.

“Now, the burden falls on Europe. Eighty percent of the operation should be European, maybe 20% us,” he said.

According to various tracking groups, far fewer than 1,000 people have been killed in attacks by Islamists of all origins in Europe since 2014.

But Graham’s rhetoric feeds into one of Trump’s favorite topics — his perception that European and NATO allies aren’t contributing enough to global security.

Anti-IS campaign ‘unchanged’

Shanahan, who spoke briefly to Pentagon reporters as he met with Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, insisted the mission to defeat ISremained unchanged.

“The transition that we are working towards is stabilization, and to enhance the security capability of local security forces,” Shanahan said.

General Joe Dunford, who is Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added he was confident allies would step into the fray.

“There is no change in the basic campaign. The resourcing is being adjusted because the threat has been changed,” Dunford said.

Graham meanwhile said he had been speaking to Trump “continuously” about the withdrawal and persuaded him that a buffer zone needs to be created to protect US-backed Kurdish fighters from a possible attack by Turkey.

“You don’t want to end one war and start another,” Graham said he told Trump.

Akar, the Turkish minister, said Ankara did not have a problem with the Kurds in Syria, only with the armed US-backed Kurdish fighters there.

“We are fighting against terrorist organizations,” Akar said.

BAGHDAD, Iraq  (AP) — Islamic State fighters facing defeat in Syria are slipping across the border into Iraq, where they are destabilizing the country’s fragile security, US and Iraqi officials say.

Hundreds — likely more than 1,000 — IS fighters have crossed the open, desert border in the past six months, defying a massive operation by US, Kurdish and allied forces to stamp out the remnants of the jihadi group in eastern Syria, according to three Iraqi intelligence officials and a US military official.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly on intelligence matters. But indications of the extremist group’s widening reach in Iraq are clear.

Cells operating in four northern provinces are carrying out kidnappings, assassinations, and roadside ambushes aimed at intimidating locals and restoring the extortion rackets that financed the group’s rise to power six years ago.

“IS is trying to assert itself in Iraq, because of the pressure it is under in Syria,” said Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasoul, the Iraqi army spokesman.

The militants can count between 5,000 and 7,000 among their ranks in Iraq, where they are hiding out in the rugged terrain of remote areas, according to one intelligence official.

In Syria, Kurdish-led forces backed by the US-led coalition have cornered the militants in a pocket less than one square kilometer in Baghouz, a Euphrates River village near the 600-kilometer (370-mile) border.

In this Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2019 file photo, a US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces fighter reacts as an airstrike hits territory still held by Islamic State militants in the desert outside Baghouz, Syria. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana)

The Iraqi army has deployed more than 20,000 troops to guard the frontier, but militants are slipping across, mostly to the north of the conflict zone, in tunnels or under the cover of night. Others are entering Iraq disguised as cattle herders.

They are bringing with them currency and light weapons, according to intelligence reports, and digging up money and arms from caches they stashed away when they controlled a vast swath of northern Iraq.

“If we deployed the greatest militaries in the world, they would not be able to control this territory,” Rasoul said. “Our operations require intelligence gathering and airstrikes.”

At its height in 2014 and 2015, the Islamic State group ruled over a self-proclaimed “caliphate” that spanned one-third of Iraqi and Syrian territory. The extremist offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Iraq threatened to exterminate religious minorities.

Iraqi forces, with US, Iranian, and other international help, were able to turn the war around and Baghdad declared victory over the group in December 2017, after the last urban battle had been won.

But precursors to IS have recovered from major setbacks in the past, and many fear the militants could stage a comeback. The group is already waging a low-level insurgency in rural areas.

The Associated Press verified nine IS attacks in Iraq in January alone, based on information gathered from intelligence officials, provincial leaders, and social media. IS often boasts of its activities through group messaging apps such as Telegram.

In this Saturday, Feb. 16, 2019 file photo, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces fighters take a break as the fight against Islamic State militants continues in the village of Baghouz, Syria. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana)

In one instance, a band of militants broke into the home of a man they accused of being an informant for the army, in the village of Tal al-Asfour in the northern Badush region. They shot him and his two brothers against the wall, and posted photos of the killing on social media.

Sheikh Mohamed Nouri, a local tribal leader, said it was meant to intimidate locals in order to keep them from sharing intelligence with security officials.

“I have members of our tribal militia receiving threatening messages warning them to abandon their work,” said Nouri.

In other instances, IS cells have killed mukhtars — village leaders and municipal officials. They have attacked rural checkpoints with car bombs and mortar fire, and burned down militia members’ homes. In the town of Shirqat in central Iraq, militants stopped a police vehicle last month and killed all four officers inside.

Other activities have aimed at restoring the group’s financial footing.

On Sunday, militants kidnapped a group of 12 truffle hunters in the western Anbar province, marking a return to a strategy of intimidating and extorting farmers and traders for financial gain.

Naim Kaoud, the head of provincial security, urged locals to suspend truffle gathering, which has just one season a year and is an important source of income for rural families.

Other truffle hunters have disappeared in the countryside, according to former lawmaker and Anbar tribal figure Jaber al-Jaberi. He said the militants are taking cuts from truffle hunters in exchange for access to the land, and kidnapping or killing those who refuse to cooperate.

“This is one of the sources of their funding,” said al-Jaberi.

Al-Jaberi cautioned against exaggerating the IS threat, saying the militants have been less successful at infiltrating communities than they were earlier this decade.

“These are different times,” he said.

Others are not so sure. Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former adviser to the U.N. Security Council on IS and other extremist groups, said the same grievances that gave rise to IS in 2013 remain today, including a large Sunni minority that feels politically and economically marginalized by the Shiite-led central government.

“I’m very worried that we are just repeating history,” said Schindler, who is now at the Counter Extremism Project.

In this Monday, Feb. 19, 2018 file photo, mourners pray over the flag-draped coffins of two fighters of the Popular Mobilization Forces, killed during fighting against Islamic State militants, during funeral procession in Najaf, Iraq. (AP Photo/Anmar Khalil,)

He said he has seen IS “revert to the old type” of “classical terror attacks” and kidnapping for ransom, tactics that were once widely employed by al-Qaeda in Iraq.

The militants staged a dramatic resurgence after 2011, when US forces withdrew from Iraq and civil war broke out in neighboring Syria. Today some 5,200 American forces are based in Iraq, after they were invited back to help stem the IS rampage in 2014.

After President Donald Trump promised in December to pull American forces out of Syria, Iraqi lawmakers began clamoring for the US to leave, arguing that the mission against IS was approaching its end.

But with no letdown to IS militancy, those calls have petered out.