WarSclerotic

Citing recent warnings by IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said the possibility of conflict necessitated the swift formation of a broad unity government to respond to security threats.

“The Middle East is again in turmoil,” Netanyahu said during a weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. “Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria are in turmoil, and Iran controls all these areas. We need to make tough decisions that require a broad-shouldered government.”

“Iran’s actions in the Middle East require very difficult decisions. What is said by the chief of staff is not spin — it is a reflection of the situation — so establishing a broad government is a top security issue.”

Netanyahu failed to negotiate a coalition following last month’s Knesset election, prompting him to declare that he was unable to form a government and causing President Reuven Rivlin to tap his primary rival Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff who heads the centrist Blue and White Party, to try his hand at bringing together Israel’s disparate political factions.

IDF chief of staff Aviv Kohavi holds a meeting around a campfire with senior Air Force officers on October 23, 2019. (Israel Defense Forces)

The prime minister is set to meet with Gantz in Tel Aviv on Sunday, the Likud and Blue and White parties said in a joint statement on Saturday. The meeting will take place Sunday afternoon at the Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv following an invitation by Gantz.

Gantz received the mandate to form a government from Rivlin on Wednesday evening and has already begun speaking with party leaders and sending out invitations to meet to negotiate their potential entry into the Blue and White-led coalition he hopes to establish.

According to reports in the Hebrew media, Gantz could offer Netanyahu a “compromise deal” that would force him to choose between including his religious allies in the coalition and being prime minister first in any premiership rotation deal.

Likud has stressed that Netanyahu is negotiating on behalf of the 55-member bloc of right-wing and religious parties loyal to him, without whom he will not enter a coalition. Blue and White has previously rejected this negotiation position outright.

Netanyahu’s remarks at Sunday’s cabinet meeting came on the heels of Kohavi’s warning last Thursday that Israel is facing a threat of conflict in both the north and the south, forcing the military to rapidly prepare for war.

“In the northern and southern arenas the situation is tense and precarious and poised to deteriorate into a conflict despite the fact that our enemies are not interested in war. In light of this, the IDF has been in an accelerated process of preparation,” Kohavi said.

President Reuven Rivlin presents Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz with the mandate to form a new Israeli government, after Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to form one, at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem on October 23, 2019. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

In a briefing to reporters, the IDF chief said the primary threat facing Israel comes from Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

“The main strategic threat to the State of Israel lies in the northern arena: with the entrenchment of Iranian and other forces in Syria, and with [the Hezbollah terror group’s] precision missile project,” Kohavi said, referring to an effort by the Iran-backed Lebanese militia to develop highly accurate long-range projectiles.

Israel sees precision-guided missiles as a far greater threat than that posed by Hezbollah’s existing arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles as the improved projectiles could easily overpower the IDF’s air defense systems and destroy the country’s critical infrastructure, something the terror group would struggle to do with its current arsenal.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday warned that ongoing massive anti-government protests in Lebanon could plunge the country into civil war, and accused Israel and other countries of working to take advantage of the demonstrations to fuel unrest.

The head of the Iran-backed terror organization spoke as the protests, which initially were triggered by new proposed taxes that followed public spending cuts, dragged on into a ninth day.

Nasrallah said though the protests began as a popular expression of anger against corruption and deepening economic crisis, they were now being exploited by political rivals and international and regional powers who oppose Hezbollah.

“What does it mean that the Israelis get Lebanese among those who are in the Zionist entity to the border to show solidarity with the protests,” he was quoted saying by Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television network. It was not immediately clear what he was referring to. An Iranian-armed proxy, Hezbollah seeks to destroy Israel.

In an unusual move, Nasrallah spoke with a Lebanese flag behind him instead of the Hezbollah banner.

Nasrallah warned Lebanon could descend into civil war, conjuring fear of the country’s war that lasted 15 years and ended in 1990.

“I’m not threatening anyone, I’m describing the situation,” he said. “We are not afraid for the resistance [Hezbollah], we are afraid for the country.”

He did, however, praise the protesters for pressuring the government to back away from tax hikes, but reiterated his opposition to the resignation of the cabinet.

“In view of the difficult financial, economic and living situation in the country, in view of security and political tensions that are prevailing in the region … a vacuum will lead to chaos, to collapse,” he said, according to the Reuters news agency.

Hezbollah is a major political player in Lebanon and with its allies holds the majority in the cabinet. It is the only movement not to have disarmed after Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.

Nasrallah also called on his supporters to leave the streets after clashes broke out in Beirut between them and anti-graft protesters.

Unprecedented protests have erupted in some Hezbollah strongholds, but some of its supporters have also taken offense to slogans against their leader.

In the capital’s main square, protesters fell silent to listen to Nasrallah’s speech broadcast on loudspeakers.

As it neared its end, the police moved in to separate Hezbollah supporters from the rest of the demonstrators, an AFP correspondent said.

Lebanese security forces stand between Hezbollah (foreground) and anti-government protesters (background) at Riad al-Solh square in the capital Beirut on October 25, 2019. (AFP)

Before they retreated, Hezbollah backers threw rocks, plastics bottles and branches at the other demonstrators, who responded in kind chanting “Revolution.”

Scuffles also broke out in central Beirut before the speech, when Hezbollah supporters entered the area to reject chants against Nasrallah, who was named by the protest movement as one among the political elite who must leave.

“Nasrallah is more honorable than all of them,” the pro-Hezbollah protesters chanted. They clashed with the protesters who were previously in the square until riot police tried to break up the fight. The incidents came shortly before Nasrallah was due to speak.

Anger has been building among Hezbollah supporters because the protesters named him, along with other corrupt politicians. At least two protesters were injured. The riot police encircled the pro-Hezbollah protesters, who carried batons, separating them from the other protesters.

But tension returned when the protesters moved down the main road, lobbing stones and at one point attacking a TV crew from a station aligned with a Hezbollah rival. Some protesters chanted for calm.

A Hezbollah supporter, right, fights with a Lebanese riot policeman, left, after a clashes erupted between Hezbollah and anti-government protesters near the government palace, in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, October 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Banks, universities and schools remained closed Friday, the ninth day of nationwide protests, which initially were triggered by new proposed taxes that followed public spending cuts.

The demonstrators — who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon — have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing many across different parties of systematic corruption.

Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend.

Lebanon’s largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the protests.

Drawing in Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze, the street movement has largely been peaceful — evolving into celebrations after nightfall.

Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanon’s political leaders.

“All of them means all,” has been a popular slogan.

Hezbollah supporters stand in front of Lebanese riot policemen, as they shout slogans praising the terror groups leader Hassan Nassrallah, during a protest near the government palace, in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, October 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands.

But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections.

The unprecedented mass protests come amid a deepening economic crisis in Lebanon. The country is one of the world’s most indebted nations, with public debt over 150 percent of the gross domestic product. The protesters accuse the politicians of amassing wealth even as the country gets poorer.

RIYADH — US Defense Secretary Mark Esper discussed “strategic cooperation” with Saudi King Salman Tuesday, days after Washington ordered thousands of soldiers to the kingdom as tensions fester with Iran.

The meeting in Riyadh, where Esper arrived late Monday after an unannounced visit to Afghanistan, also took in defense issues and the current situation in the region, the official SPA news agency said.

The agency later added that Esper had met powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also defense minister.

The two discussed “military and defense cooperation,” it said.

On October 11, the Pentagon said it was deploying new US troops to Saudi Arabia after Riyadh asked for reinforcements following a mid-September drone and missile attack on Saudi oil plants, which Washington blames on Iran.

Esper has said that two fighter squadrons and additional missile defense batteries were being sent to Saudi Arabia, bringing to about 3,000 the total number of US troops deployed to the kingdom since last month.

The September 14 attack knocked out two major facilities of state oil giant Aramco in Abqaiq and Khurais, roughly halving Saudi Arabia’s oil production.

Washington condemned the attacks as an “act of war” but neither Saudi Arabia nor the United States have overtly retaliated.

Tensions have soared in the Gulf in recent months with a series of attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers, raising fears of war. Iran has denied any involvement.

Israel is readying for a direct cruise missile or drone strike by Tehran in response to recent attacks on Iranian regional proxies which have been attributed to the Jewish state, Army Radio reported Tuesday evening.

Unlike ballistic missiles, which usually fly through a high arc on the way to the target, cruise missiles and drones fly at low altitude, making them harder to detect.

The report cited anonymous “Israeli sources,” who said the IDF was already on high alert for the possibility and that the security cabinet will convene for an “unplanned” meeting next Tuesday against a backdrop of tensions with the Islamic Republic.

This would be the second time this month that the high-level security cabinet has convened. On October 6, its members gathered amid cryptic warnings by Israeli leaders of a growing security threat from Iran. That meeting lasted for nearly six hours.

During the meeting, ministers discussed a proposal, being pushed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for a NIS 1 billion ($290 million) project to boost Israel’s air defenses that would place particular focus on defending the country against cruise missile attacks.

A suicide drone developed by Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, October 26, 2016 (AFP)

Channel 12 at the time cited anonymous officials who believed Tehran may have publicized information about an allegedly foiled “Israel-Arab” plot to assassinate General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the elite Quds Force in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a pretense to attack Israel.

Both Netanyahu and President Reuven Rivlin have mentioned crucial security needs in recent days as they called for the formation of a broad unity government after the September 17 elections.

Iran appears to have been building up its drone activities and attacks in recent months — in August, Israeli fighter jets carried out airstrikes in Syria to thwart a planned attack on Israel by Iran-backed fighters using armed drones, the Israel Defense Forces said. The Israeli military said its strike targeted operatives from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force as well as Shiite militias who had been planning on sending “kamikaze” attack drones into Israel armed with explosives.

In September, a cruise missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities knocked out half the kingdom’s oil production. Although Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, the US, Britain, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia have blamed Iran of being behind the attack.

Channel 12 news reported that defense officials who have studied the weapons used in the attack on the Saudi facilities concluded that a similar assault by Iran on Israel, if it came, would likely be launched from western Iraq, where there is a strong presence of Iran-backed militias.

Iran regularly threatens Israel, viewing the country as a powerful enemy allied with the United States and Sunni countries in the region against Tehran and its nuclear ambitions.

Israel has also thwarted Iranian operations in neighboring Syria where its fighters and those of Iranian proxy Hezbollah have been fighting alongside forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad since 2011.

In this photo from August 12, 2019, plumes of smoke rise after an explosion at a military base southwest of Baghdad, Iraq. (AP Photo/Loay Hameed)

Israel has vowed to prevent Iran’s regional proxy militias from obtaining advanced weapons to use against the Jewish state and has carried out hundreds of air strikes in Syria that it says were to prevent deliver of weapons and to stop Iranian military entrenchment in that country.

Late last month, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi announced that investigations have determined the recent spate of airstrikes targeting powerful Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were carried out by Israel.

The Qatari-funded TV network also quoted him as saying that “many indicators show that no one wants war in the region except for Israel,” according to a translation by the Reuters news agency.

A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces declined to comment on the statements from the Iraqi premier, saying “these are reports from foreign media and we do not comment on them.”

Since July, there have been at least nine strikes both inside Iraq and across the border in Syria, targeting the Iran-backed militias, known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF.

Leaders of the powerful Shiite paramilitary group have repeatedly blamed Israel and by extension its US ally, which maintains more than 5,000 troops in Iraq.

Israel has not confirmed its involvement in the attacks, though Netanyahu has hinted at the possibility that it has struck in Iraq.

Earlier this month, a senior Iranian lawmaker blamed Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia for an alleged attack on an oil tanker off the Saudi coast and said he would take the complaint to the UN.

This photo taken on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2019, and released by the official news agency of the Iranian Oil Ministry, SHANA, shows the scene of damage by two missiles that allegedly struck the Iranian oil tanker Sabiti, at the Red Sea. (SHANA via AP)

Tehran says the Iranian-flagged Sabiti tanker was hit by two separate explosions off the Red Sea port of Jeddah.

Hassan Beigi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, claimed without evidence that the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia were alleging the Islamic State jihadist group or Afghanistan’s Taliban for an alleged attack on an oil tanker last week off the Saudi coast and said he would take the complaint to the UN.

The two top Democrats in Congress on Thursday bashed a five-day truce that the US brokered with Turkey to halt violence on the Syrian border.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the agreement was a “sham ceasefire” that showed that US President Donald Trump is “flailing.”

The US, Turkey and Kurdish forces agreed Thursday to the deal to stop the Turks’ attacks on Kurdish fighters in northern Syria and allow the Kurds to withdraw to roughly 20 miles away from the Turkish border. The arrangement appeared to be a significant embrace of Turkey’s position in the weeklong conflict.

After more than four hours of negotiations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, US Vice President Mike Pence said the purpose of his high-level mission was to end the bloodshed caused by Turkey’s invasion of Syria, and remained silent on whether the agreement amounted to another abandonment of the US’s former Kurdish allies in the fight against the Islamic State.

Turkish troops and Turkish-backed Syrian fighters launched their offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria a week ago, two days after Trump suddenly announced he was withdrawing American forces from the area.

US Vice President Mike Pence meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Presidential Palace for talks on the Kurds and Syria, October 17, 2019, in Ankara, Turkey. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Pelosi and Schumer said Turkey had surrendered nothing while Trump had given Erdogan “everything.”

They said the deal damages American credibility and leaves thousands of Islamic State prisoners in the hands of Turkey and Syria’s government, which they said represents a security threat to the US.

Pelosi and Schumer said the US and its allies “deserve smart, strong and sane leadership from Washington.”

“President Trump unleashed a further escalation of chaos and insecurity in Syria that has left dozens of innocent civilians dead, displaced hundreds of thousands more and invited the resurgence of ISIS.  The only beneficiaries of the President’s policies are our adversaries: ISIS, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin and Iran,” Pelosi and Schumer said in a joint statement.

Next week the House will pass a sanctions package to mitigate the humanitarian consequences of the US withdrawal, the statement read.

Turkey-backed Syrian opposition fighters fire a heavy machine-gun towards Kurdish fighters, in Syria’s northern region of Manbij, October 14, 2019. (AP Photo)

Some Republicans also criticized the truce.

Republican Senator Mitt Romney said Trump’s decision to abandon Kurdish allies in Syria “will stand as a bloodstain in the annals of American history.”

The Utah senator took to the Senate floor Thursday to criticize Trump.

“The announcement today is being portrayed as a victory. It is far from a victory,” Romney argued.

He said removing US troops who protected the Kurds “violates one of our most sacred duties. It strikes at American honor.”

Romney said he hopes the truce works but that a deal with Turkey should have been struck before the US pulled its troops out, not afterward.

Republican senator Marco Rubio similarly criticized the cease fire, saying: “Other than giving Kurds a chance to leave so they don’t get slaughtered, it doesn’t sound like a change of any of the other dynamics I’m concerned about.”

Kurdish civilians flee the town of Kobane on the Turkish border on October 16, 2019 as Turkey continues its assault on Kurdish-held border towns in northeastern Syria. (Bakr Alkasem/AFP)

Brett McGurk, the former civilian head of the administration’s US-led counter-IS campaign, wrote on Twitter that Thursday’s deal was a gift to the Turks.

“The US just ratified Turkey’s plan to effectively extend its border 30km into Syria with no ability to meaningfully influence facts on the ground,” he wrote, adding that the arrangement was “non-implementable.”

Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lauded Thursday’s deal as a significant achievement, and Trump tweeted that it was “a great day for civilization.” But the agreement essentially gives the Turks what they had sought to achieve with their military operation in the first place. After the Kurdish forces are cleared from the safe zone, Turkey has committed to a permanent ceasefire but is under no obligation to withdraw its troops.

In addition, the deal gives Turkey relief from sanctions the administration had imposed and threatened to impose since the invasion began, meaning there will be no penalty for the operation.

During the five-day ceasefire, the United States “will not be implementing additional sanctions,” Pence told reporters.

US Vice President Mike Pence, left, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo leave the Ambassador’s Residence as they walk to a motorcade en route to the Presidential Palace for talks on the Kurds and Syria, October 17, 2019, in Ankara, Turkey. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

“Once we have a permanent ceasefire, following the orderly withdrawal of all YPG forces, the United States also agreed to withdraw the sanctions that were imposed on several cabinet officials and several agencies,” Pence said, referring to Kurdish forces in Syria.

Trump was ebullient after the agreement was announced, tweeting that “Millions of lives will be saved!” and asserting that “People have been trying to make this ‘Deal’ for many years.”

He credited his threat of sanctions on Turkey as “tough love” that led the country to agree to a five-day ceasefire in its battle with Kurds in northern Syria.

Talking to reporters in Fort Worth, Texas, on Thursday, Trump said the Kurds are happy with the deal.

He added that he was open to hosting the Turkish leader in Washington.

Speaking to reporters, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed suspension of the offensive, but rejected the notion that the agreement constituted a ceasefire.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to his ruling party officials in Ankara, Turkey, October 10, 2019. (Turkish Presidency Press Service via AP, Pool)

“We are suspending the operation, not halting it,” he said. “We will halt the operation only after [Kurdish militants] completely withdraw from the region.”

“This is not a ceasefire. A ceasefire is reached between the two legitimate parties,” he said.

Ankara has long argued that the Kurdish fighters are nothing more than an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a guerrilla campaign inside Turkey since the 1980s and which Turkey, as well as the US and European Union, designate as a terrorist organization.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said they are willing to abide by the agreement.

“We are ready to abide by the ceasefire,” covering the area from Ras al-Ain to Tal Abyad, SDF chief Mazlum Abdi told a Kurdish TV station.

Trump’s withdrawal of US troops has been widely condemned, including by Republican officials not directly associated with his administration.

Turkey-backed Syrian fighters walk near the Turkish village of Akcakale along the border with Syria on October 11, 2019, as they prepare to take part in the Turkish-led assault on northeastern Syria. (Bakr Alkasem/AFP)

Republicans and Democrats in the House, bitterly divided over the Trump impeachment inquiry, banded together Wednesday for an overwhelming 354-60 denunciation of the US troop withdrawal.

Trump has denied that his action provided a “green light” for Turkey to move against the longtime US battlefield partners, or that he was opening the way for a revival of the Islamic State group and raising worldwide doubts about US faithfulness to its allies.

While Erdogan heard global condemnation for his invasion, he also faced renewed nationalistic fervor at home, and any pathway to de-escalation likely needed to avoid embarrassing him domestically.

Pompeo landed in Israel overnight Thursday-Friday after meeting with Erdogan in Ankara for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed at easing Jerusalem’s fears about the US withdrawal.

Iran on Wednesday warned that it would start limiting international inspectors’ access to its nuclear sites as it continues to move away from its commitments under the nuclear deal.

Hossein Naghavi-Hosseini, the spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, said that Iran was taking the step because “when the other party doesn’t fulfill its commitments, there is no necessity for us to meet our part of commitments.”

“In the fourth step of reducing JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) commitments, we will probably impose limits on inspections, which means the International Atomic Energy Agency’s surveillance on Iran’s nuclear activities will be reduced,” the Guardian newspaper quoted him as saying.

“Europeans have not honored their part of the commitments and we have not seen any practical step taken by the other side,” he said.

Iran has steadily increased its breaches of the nuclear accord as it pushes its European partners to find a way around US sanctions that have kept it from selling oil abroad and crippled the Iranian economy.

Also Wednesday, France urged Iran to stop violating the accord.

“Iran must abstain from crossing an especially worrying new phase of new measures that could contribute to an escalation in tensions,” French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnès von der Muhll said, according to the Reuters news agency.

She was referring to an announcement last week that Iran plans to start using a new array of advanced centrifuges for enriching uranium.

In this photo released by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, spokesman of the organization Behrouz Kamalvandi speaks in a news briefing as advanced centrifuges are displayed in front of him, in Tehran, Iran, September 7, 2019 (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP)

Ali Akbar Salehi, the country’s nuclear chief, told Iranian state TV that an array of 30 IR-6 centrifuges will be inaugurated in the coming weeks.

Under the terms of its 2015 deal — which the US unilaterally withdrew from over a year ago — Iran had committed to not using the array until late 2023.

Salehi also said Iran is now producing up to six kilograms of enriched uranium daily.

“It means we have restored pre-deal” capacity, he said.

In September, Iran inaugurated an array of 20 IR-6 centrifuges that can produce enriched uranium 10 times as fast as the IR-1 that Iran was already using.

Iran is currently enriching uranium to about 4.5%. Prior to the nuclear deal, it only reached up to 20%, which is a short technical step away from the weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Iran denies that it seeks nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposed the 2015 deal, insists that Tehran is seeking a nuclear arsenal, and is hiding parts of its program

Regional tensions spiked last month after a drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facility that shook global energy markets. The US said Iran was behind the attack. Tehran denied the charge and said any retaliatory strikes by the US or Saudi Arabia could lead to “all-out war.”