Iran and the US appeared to be heading towards some sort of conflict, perhaps involving Iran’s proxy forces in the region. But both countries want to climb down from this crisis.
Iran and the US appeared to be heading towards some sort of conflict, perhaps involving Iran’s proxy forces in the region. But both countries want to climb down from this crisis.
Source: Trump’s Iran moves trigger warnings, demands from Congress | The Times of Israel
Top leaders in Congress to receive a classified briefing from administration Thursday; Pelosi: Trump has ‘no business’ moving toward confrontation without approval from lawmakers
WASHINGTON (AP) — Lawmakers from both parties in Congress demanded more information on the White House’s claims of rising threats in the Middle East, warning US President Donald Trump off a dangerous escalation with Iran.
The top leaders in Congress — the so-called Gang of Eight— are to receive a classified briefing from the administration on Thursday. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the White House has resisted a wider presentation for all lawmakers, part of what Democrats say is a pattern of stonewalling. Some Republicans, including Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, sought out their own briefings as the administration called US personnel home from Iraq and sent military might to the Persian Gulf, claiming unspecified threats linked to Iran.
Pelosi said Trump has “no business” moving toward a Middle East confrontation without approval from Congress.
“We have to avoid any war with Iran,” she told fellow Democrats in a meeting, according to a person in the room who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss comments from the private gathering.
On Wednesday, the US ordered all nonessential personnel to leave Iraq, and last week an aircraft carrier group and other resources were shifted to the Persian Gulf region. In public and in private, officials are sticking by the administration’s warnings of serious threats from Iranian-backed forces in the region, yet they reject the idea that the U.S. moves are a prelude to war. Trump himself denied a report Tuesday that the administration had reviewed a plan to send 120,000 troops.
Still, the actions are exposing skepticism in the US and among foreign allies, a legacy of the 2003 invasion of Iraq that was based on false intelligence. US officials have not publicly provided any evidence to back up claims of an increased Iranian threat.
“Congress has not authorized war with Iran, and the administration, if it were contemplating military action with Iran, must come to Congress to seek approval,” said Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He said he had never seen anything like the “non-answers” coming from the administration.
Republicans — and even some Democrats — who have been briefed said the threats are legitimate.
The chairman of Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, said that based on the information he received he supports the administration actions, including the repositioning of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Gulf.
“The threat is real,” said Democrat Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. But, he said, “The administration is doing a dreadful job of consulting with Congress and keeping the vast majority of members of Congress informed about what’s happening.”
And Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said the information he’s seen shows “by far the single most imminent potential conflict of this significance” in his eight years in Congress. He said, “The intelligence is unmistakable and clear, and it’s backed by observable movement on the ground.”
Still, Romney expressed support for the Senate Democrats’ request for more information in a classified briefing, and Risch said a broader briefing for senators, perhaps next week, was “in the works.”
Romney said it’s “inconceivable” that Trump would start a conflict with Iran. “There’s no appetite for going to war in the Middle East,” he told reporters.
State Department officials said threats in the region were credible and based on intelligence showing Iranian-backed militias had been moving personnel and weaponry as well as stepping up surveillance of US and US-affiliated facilities in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East. The officials were not authorized to comment publicly by name and spoke only on condition of anonymity.
They pushed back against speculation that the decision to bring nonessential personnel home from Iraq was a prelude to military conflict. There is no US desire for war, said one official, who had returned earlier Wednesday from Europe with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Several Democrats pinned the sudden moves in part on national security adviser John Bolton, known for his hawkish views. Some have suggested Pompeo and Bolton don’t see eye-to-eye on the US strategy, and Trump found it necessary to comment on that.
“There is no infighting whatsoever,” he tweeted Wednesday. “All sides, views, and policies are covered,” and he reserves the “decisive and final decision,” he said.
“I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon,” he said, without elaboration.
Earlier this year, Congress forced Trump into the first veto of his administration over a resolution that passed the House and Senate to halt US involvement in the Saudi-led war against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., a senior member of the House Intelligence Committee said, “The people inside the administration who are trying to start a war know that if they have this conversation in an open and transparent way, there will be very substantial pushback from both parties and both houses of Congress.”
Republican Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, who is a former CIA officer, said the administration’s information on Iran is highly sensitive and by nature cannot be shared with a wide audience.
“When you get such credible intelligence that leads to major decisions like rerouting aircraft carriers, it’s important that the way the information is collected is not damaged,” Hurd said. “You need to protect sources and methods.”
Pelosi warned that the administration cannot rely on the most recent use-of-force authorization approved by Congress nearly 20 years ago for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“They have no business declaring a war without the consent of Congress,” she said.
Since last week, House leaders have been asking for a classified session for lawmakers on the situation with Iran, but Pelosi said the administration indicated it couldn’t come together “that fast.”
An administration official said they have no plans for a wider briefing at this point.
“The bigger problem is, so what if you get a briefing?” said Rep. Karen Bass, D-Calif., a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who raised broader questions of Trump’s foreign policy. “What does my briefing mean if he comes out and tweets something?”
Source: PM said to tell his defense chiefs to keep Israel out of Iran-US tensions | The Times of Israel
Netanyahu convenes security heads to discuss potential escalation, speaks to Pompeo, TV report says; assessment is reportedly that Israel unlikely to be targeted
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened urgent consultations with Israel’s security chiefs this week amid the escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, and reportedly urged them to do their utmost to ensure that Israel is not dragged into the fraught situation.
At his meeting with the security chiefs, Netanyahu ordered the appropriate precautions be taken to deal with any potential escalation, and also called for ongoing, close intelligence monitoring of the surging tensions between Washington and Tehran, a TV report said Wednesday. But he also told the top officers “to take steps to separate Israel from these developments” and to work “at all cost” to keep Israel out of the situation, Israel’s Channel 13 news reported, citing senior Israeli officials.
Despite various threats by Iranian leaders against Israel, the assessment at the meeting was that there is no immediate concern that Israel will be directly targeted — including by rocket fire from pro-Iranian militias in Syria or Iraq, the report said.
Israel, it added, has been maintaining close contact with the Trump administration in recent days, with Netanyahu speaking by telephone with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and the Israeli national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat liaising with his US counterpart John Bolton.
The Prime Minister’s Office did not deny the report but would not comment on it. US officials told the TV station that Netanyahu and Pompeo are in frequent contact, often about Iran.
Iran’s defense minister said earlier Wednesday his country would overpower the US-Israel alliance in the region. “We will defeat the American-Zionist front,” Amir Hatami told a gathering of military intelligence officials on Wednesday, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).
Iran’s military preparedness, Hatami said, was “at its highest point,” despite “the most difficult conditions” imposed by US sanctions. “We will be the final victors” in the standoff, he insisted, and “will defeat the United States.”
He blamed the sanctions and heightened tensions on Iran’s “defeat of the heretics” — a reference to the Islamic State jihadist group in Syria and Iraq, which Iranian officials have claimed was founded and backed by the US.
Tensions in the region have risen sharply in recent weeks as US sanctions on Iran, reimposed gradually in the wake of the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal last year, began to take their toll, pushing the Iranian economy into crisis.
Last week, Iran warned it would begin enriching uranium at higher levels in 60 days if world powers failed to negotiate new terms for the deal.
On Wednesday, US officials announced they were evacuating nonessential American personnel from Iraq, a day after Saudi oil facilities were attacked by Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen, and three days after four oil tankers — two of which were Saudi — were damaged as they lay off the coast of the United Arab Emirates by what Gulf officials described as sabotage. Of the other two tankers, one was Norwegian and the other Emirati.
Israel was reported last week to have warned the US that Iran was contemplating targeting Saudi oil production facilities. An unsourced Channel 13 report said the Iranians were “considering various aggressive acts” against American or American-allied targets. Tehran had looked at targeting American bases in the Gulf, but that had been deemed too drastic. The main target they were interested in was “Saudi oil production facilities,” the TV report said.
Last week, top officials in the Trump administration warned that Washington believed Iran was plotting some sort of attack in the Gulf region, perhaps targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.
To meet the threat, the Pentagon has accelerated the deployment of an aircraft carrier task force to the Gulf and accompanied it with several B-52 bombers, a Patriot missile battery and an amphibious assault ship.
The stepped-up deployment and heightened rhetoric has led to fears in capitals around the world of a possible military confrontation breaking out between Washington and Tehran.
Source: Is Iran the new Iraq? Here are the similarities — and big differences | The Times of Israel
As America issues dire warnings about Iran, many elements resemble the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War, not least among them the Israel factor
Source: Zarif says Iran showing ‘maximum restraint,’ US escalation ‘unacceptable’ | The Times of Israel
Visiting Tokyo Iranian foreign minister says Tehran still committed to nuclear deal and continues to be in compliance
TOKYO — Iran is showing “maximum restraint” despite the US withdrawal from a nuclear deal, the country’s foreign minister said Thursday, accusing Washington of an “unacceptable” escalation in tensions.
“The escalation by the United States is unacceptable,” Mohammad Javad Zarif said in Tokyo where he is holding talks with Japanese officials.
“We exercise maximum restraint… in spite of the fact that the United States withdrew from JCPOA last May,” he added, referring to the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
He added that Tehran remains “committed” to the deal, and said continuing assessments showed Iran was in compliance with the multilateral agreement.
Earlier this month Iran threatened to enrich its uranium stockpile closer to weapons-grade levels in 60 days if world powers fail to negotiate new terms for the 2015 nuclear deal.
Tensions between the United States and Iran were already high after President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal a year ago.
But they have been ratcheted up significantly in recent weeks amid increased US pressure over alleged threats from Iran.
Earlier this month, Trump’s hawkish National Security Advisor John Bolton announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group and a B-52 bomber force to the Gulf.
Days later, the Pentagon added a Patriot missile defense battery and an amphibious assault ship to the deployment.
And on Wednesday the US ordered the partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy and consulate in Arbil citing specific threats posed by Iraqi militias alleged controlled by Tehran.
ToI Staff contributed to this report
Amid simmering tensions in Gulf, Hossein Salami says ‘this moment in history is the most decisive moment of the Islamic revolution’; Rouhani: US engaged in ‘crime against humanity’
The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps on Wednesday warned Tehran was on the brink of full-on conflict with its enemy, a day after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said there would not be a war with the United States amid escalating tensions.
“We are on the cusp of a full-scale confrontation with the enemy,” Major General Hossein Salami said, according to the Reuters news agency, which cited Iran’s Fars news agency.
“This moment in history — because the enemy has stepped into the field of confrontation with us with all the possible capacity — is the most decisive moment of the Islamic revolution,” added Salami, who tapped as the new IRGC chief last month.
President Hassan Rouhani later condemned the US sanctions on his country.
“The hard times and problems of America’s economic war against Iran have begun… what America is doing is a crime against humanity,” he said.
Rouhani accused the US of disrupting the flow of “livelihood, food and medical drugs” to normal Iranians. “This war is not against the government of the Islamic republic of Iran, it’s against the Iranian nation,” he said.
The comments come amid rising tensions in the region that saw the deployment earlier this month of an American aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf and attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.
On Sunday, four ships, including two Saudi oil tankers, were sabotaged off the United Arab Emirates coast in an attack US officials reportedly suspect was carried out at Iran’s behest.
Iran has called for an investigation into what it called an “alarming” incident, while a senior member of Iran’s parliament blamed Israel on Tuesday for the attacks on the ships, for which no one has yet claimed responsibility.
The attacks “appeared to be Israeli mischief,” Behrouz Nemati, an Iranian government spokesman said after a closed-door session of parliament, quoted by state news agency IRNA.
On Tuesday, Khamenei said “there is not going to be any war” with the US, but that there will also be no renegotiation of the nuclear deal.
“This face-off is not military because there is not going to be any war. Neither we nor them [the US] seek war. They know it will not be in their interest,” he said, as quoted on the official Khamenei.ir website.
In tweets following the comments, Khamenei wrote that the “Iranian nation’s definite option is resistance against US and in this confrontation, US will have to withdraw…. This confrontation is a confrontation of willpowers and our willpower is stronger because in addition to our willpower we also enjoy relying on God.”
Hours earlier on Tuesday a close adviser to Rouhani warned US President Donald Trump that it “looks like you are going to get a war” with Iran, as the US deployed additional warships to the region.
In an English-language tweet tagging Trump, Hesameddin Ashena said, “You wanted a better deal with Iran. Looks like you are going to get a war instead.”
In an apparent reference to mustachioed US National Security Adviser John Bolton, he added, “That’s what happens when you listen to the mustache.”
“Good luck in 2020!” he concluded sarcastically.
Tensions have risen since Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, and restored US sanctions that have pushed Iran’s economy into crisis. On Wednesday morning, Iran said it had formally dropped the limitations on uranium enrichment and the production of heavy water that were laid down in the landmark deal.
European powers have vowed to fight to save the nuclear deal and the European Union has urged Iran to respect the international agreement, saying it aims to continue trading with the country despite US sanctions.
Source: US orders embassy staff from Iraq over ‘imminent’ Iran threat | The Times of Israel
Threat came from Iraqi militia ‘commanded and controlled’ by Revolutionary Guards; Trump predicts Iran will ‘soon’ want to start talks amid rising tensions
WASHINGTON — The United States Wednesday ordered non-emergency staff evacuated from its Baghdad embassy due to an “imminent” threat from Iranian-linked Iraqi militias, but President Donald Trump predicted Iran would “soon” want to start talks.
The move added to growing fears that the long-time rivals could be on course for conflict despite both sides stressing they have no desire for war.
The evacuation order, also covering the US consulate in Arbil, came 10 days after the Pentagon deployed an aircraft carrier task force and B-52 bombers to the Gulf to fend off an unspecified plot by Tehran to attack US forces or allies.
Trump sought to portray the situation as under control, saying there was no discord in the White House and that Iran would want to negotiate.
“I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon,” he tweeted. He also blasted media reports of White House turmoil, saying “there is no infighting whatsoever.”
Despite international skepticism, the US government has been pointing to increasing threats from Iran, a long-time enemy and rival of US allies Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Senior State Department officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the threat came from Iraqi militia “commanded and controlled” by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“It is directly linked to Iran, multiple threat streams directly linked to Iran,” said one official.
“This is an imminent threat to our personnel,” said a second official.
“There is no doubt in my mind that under the circumstances, a partial ordered departure (from the embassy) is a reasonable thing to do.”
On Tuesday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted the showdown between the Islamic republic and the United States was a mere test of resolve.
“This face-off is not military because there is not going to be any war. Neither we nor them (the US) seek war,” he said.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo echoed that sentiment, saying in Sochi, Russia: “We fundamentally do not seek a war with Iran.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on a visit to Tokyo that his country was exercising “maximum restraint”, accusing Washington of an “unacceptable” escalation in tensions.
Tehran remains “committed” to the nuclear deal thrashed out with world powers despite Washington’s withdrawal, Zarif said, adding that Iran had been assessed as in compliance with the multilateral agreement.
Despite the insistence that neither party wants conflict, world powers have rushed to urge calm and voiced concern over the escalating tensions.
Washington says it has received intelligence on possible attacks by Iranian or Iranian-backed forces, possibly targeting US bases in Iraq or Syria.
Some observers speculate Tehran is seeking to retaliate over Washington’s decision in April to put Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on a terror blacklist — a move designed to stymie their activities across the Middle East.
But since the first US warning on May 5, the only activity has been a still-mysterious “attack” Monday on tankers anchored off Fujairah, an Emirati port located at the strategically crucial entrance to the Gulf.
One or more vessels incurred light hull damage, but what caused the damage and who was behind it remains unknown.
Britain’s Major General Chris Ghika, a spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition fighting the jihadist Islamic State group, said Tuesday there was no special heightened alert.
After Ghika’s comments drew a sharp retort from the US Central Command, Britain’s defense ministry said Wednesday they have “long been clear about our concerns over Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region” — while still not confirming any new imminent danger.
Germany and the Netherlands said Wednesday they were suspending training of soldiers in Iraq. German defense ministry spokesman Jens Flosdorff said there was a “generally heightened alert” in the region but gave no specifics.
In the US Congress, Democrats demanded to know why the Trump administration was boosting its Gulf presence and, according to media reports, considering war plans that would involve sending 120,000 US troops to the Middle East if Iran attacks American assets.
Senator Bob Menendez, the senior Democrat on the Senate foreign relations panel, demanded a briefing “immediately” on the threat intelligence, any plans for war and the decision to order embassy staff out of Iraq.
“Congress has not authorized war with Iran… If (the administration) were contemplating military action with Iran, it must come to Congress to seek approval,” he said.
Source: A U.S.-Iran confrontation will inevitably include Israel
In Israel, this message was taken very seriously. During recent discussions by the prime minister, the head of the National Security Council, the IDF chief of staff, the head of Military Intelligence and senior IDF General Staff officers, a picture emerged of an imminent confrontation between the Iranians and the Americans in the Persian Gulf.
At this point, it is difficult to assess the scale of such a clash, but Israel must prepare for a gradual escalation, in which it, too, will likely to find itself involved in some way.
It is fair to assume that the first military phase will focus on specific Iranian action against oil routes and oil producers in the Persian Gulf. Indeed, the Iranians have in recent days struck Saudi oilfields as well as their tankers at an oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates, either through their special forces or their Houthi allies in Yemen.
In the second stage of the escalation, the Iranians will apparently target the interests of the United States and its allies. And this where Israel enters the picture. The Iranians will leave a direct confrontation with the U.S. to the final stage.
According to Israeli assessments, there are at least four scenarios for a possible Iranian attack in Israel. The most likely scenario is the launch of missiles from Iraq.
The second scenario includes firing missiles and dispatching armed drones from Syria, alongside terrorist activity along the border fence between the two countries.
A third scenario, which is viewed as less likely, involves Hezbollah military activity from Lebanon. This is seen as a lesser threat as Hezbollah is at present at one of its economic low points, and it is doubtful that its leader Hassan Nasrallah would give Israel the opportunity to best him.
The fourth possible scenario, and the least worrying from an Israeli perspective, is the use of terror attacks by Islamic Jihad from the Gaza Strip.
Each of these scenarios, however, could be folded into another on a different front, depending on the depth of the crisis.
Israel has been aware of the threat from Iraq for a while. More than a year and a half ago, Israel told Iran, via the Americans and the Russians, to remove surface-to-surface missile systems from western Iraq.
The assessment was that these missiles were deployed in a bid to deter Israel from continuing attacks on Iranian targets in Syria. The warning achieved its goal and the Iranians lowered their profile in western Iraq, although there are still surface-to-surface missiles in the hands of pro-Iran, Shi’ite militias in Iraq.
These militias have missiles with a range of 700-1,000 kilometers, and when stationed in western Iraq, they cover the entire territory of Israel. Unlike the missiles that Saddam Hussein fired at Israel from the same area in 1991, these missiles are accurate and have a relatively short launch period.
There are still no preparations underway in Israel to deal with this potential threat, but there is a level of awareness among the intelligence agencies.

Israel’s ability to gather intelligence on what is happening in western Iraq is immeasurably greater than in 1991, when its intelligence agencies were blindly searching for Saddam’s mobile rocket batteries and reliant on American satellite images.
Israel’s offensive capabilities in air and on land against second-tier countries like Iraq are also very different from what they were in 1991.
Moreover, Israel has more diplomatic cover than ever before should it choose to embark on a military operation in western Iraq.
Just as they didn’t hesitate to use the Houthis in Yemen against the Saudis in order to fan the flames of the crisis with the Americans, the Iranians will likely try to ramp up tensions against Israel in order to speed up international intervention over the death blow that the U.S. has just dealt their economy.
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