WarSclerotic

Though Iran’s morale is high with the US’s withdrawal from Syria, a combination of sanctions and internal domestic pressures may prevent it from filling the vacuum, an intelligence center report said late Monday.

The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center report said that Iranian regime officials’ public statements on the issue have been limited to date, but that it is clear from domestic media coverage that the US withdrawal is viewed as a victory and a surprise.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman has already issued a statement that the US presence in Syria “lacked logic,” and a few other more minor officials have made comments, but its Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani and others have remained silent.

Out of concern that the Trump administration could reverse course if publicly embarrassed, the report said that these top officials may wait to weigh in publicly until US forces are actually withdrawn.

In addition, the report said that the sudden withdrawal announcement caught them by surprise.

Still, the report said it is clear that since the US entered the fray in Syria, a primary goal of the Islamic Republic has been to ensure that the American military presence did not stick around long-term, even as it took advantage of that same military force against ISIS.

Absent a US presence, the report stated, Tehran has potentially a much freer hand to use its land bridge from Iran to Syria and Lebanon to establish power centers and to move weaponry and militias closer to Israel’s border.

To date, Iran has mainly used the land route of Albukamal route, which goes from Baghdad through the Euphrates Valley and passes through the Albukamal crossing, to get weapons and supplies to Syria and Lebanon.

Though this was considered a substantial achievement and improvement over full reliance on transporting weapons by air, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has always preferred to use the Tanf route if it ever opened up.

The Tanf route, leading from Baghdad to Damascus and going through the Tanf border crossing, near the tri-border area between Iraq, Jordan, and Syria, was off-limits as long as the US military presence physically blocked access.

It is a shorter route than the Albukamal route and avoids potential threats from some of the remainder of ISIS forces, said the Meir Amit center.

With the US withdrawal, the IRGC may press to substantially increase transporting weapons and supplies using the shorter Tanf route, which would also force Israel to keep an eye on multiple passages.

Yet, at the same time, the report said that “in the short term Iran will continue with a cautious policy mostly based on foreign [non-Iranian] Shi’ite militias and on local Syrian militias in order to deepen its influence in Syria.”

The intelligence center explained that US sanctions have exacerbated internal Iranian tensions about how much it should be investing its own blood and treasure in foreign adventures.

At a time when the Islamic Republic’s economy is at a significant low from sanctions, it is harder for the IRGC to justify fighting in foreign areas, let alone increasing its foreign presence, said the report.

Overall, even as the regime has succeeded in containing nation-wide protests from representing an imminent danger to its rule, it is still sensitive to the issue and likely to opt to rely on proxies in the Syria and Lebanon sphere for the near future.

For example, the report cited a public statement by Jafar al-Hassini, spokesman for an Iraqi Shi’ite militia using the name Hezbollah, which said that after the US pullout, his forces would fill the vacuum, including protecting Kurdish forces which until now had been protected by Iran.

Further, the report pointed out that US forces to date had not actually directly confronted Iranian forces.

In other words, the main foreign power limits on Tehran’s activities in Syria were pressures from Israel and Russia – pressures which will continue.

Two suspicious Iranian planes left Damascus on Tuesday night just prior to reports of airstrikes.

Details from flight monitoring sites show that a Fars Air Qeshm 747 cargo plane left Damascus International Airport at 9:28 in the evening, just half an hour before reports emerged of air strikes in Syria on Tuesday night.

According to the site Flightradar24.com, the Boeing 747-281F left Damascus and flew due east towards Tehran, climbing to 30,000 feet and then crossing into Iraq after ten in the evening.

By midnight it had entered Iranian airspace and began a beeline for Tehran. A second Tehran bound flight, Maham Air took off at 10:04 in the evening and flew precisely the same route. The Far Air Qeshm flight has been in the news in the past in relation to alleged smuggling of arms to Syria and also to Damascus. Al-Arabiya claimed that it transferred weapons to Hezbollah in early December.  In October, FoxNews carried a similar report.

Similarly Mahan Air has been targeted by the US Treasury Department for links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, making its departure right after the Fars Air Qeshm suspicions. Although the Fars Air Qeshm flight appears to have left before the airstrikes began, the Mahan Air flight seems to have left around the same time.

In the past reports have indicated that airstrikes targeted Damascus after suspicious flights landed and allegedly disembarked cargo for arms smuggling to Hezbollah factions.

Syrian air defense confronted a complex threat over Damascus Tuesday night. It comes after several months of relative quiet for Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime, which is grappling with a crises in eastern Syria as the US withdraws.

The airstrikes took place as the Syrian state media was seeking to highlight Christmas in Syria. Syria was witnessing a “victory over terrorism,” SANA said. However the airstrikes were the most serious since September when an Israeli airstrike targeted Latakia and resulted in Syrian air defense shooting down a Russian IL-20 aircraft. That incident caused Moscow to give Syria the S-300 system and warn Israeli “hotheads” against further incidents.

For months it has been relatively quiet. An incident on November 29 and December 9th worked up Damascus as air defenses were activated. But both incidents seemed minor. One was a false alarm apparently. However December 25 was a major escalation. It comes as Syria is seeking to deal with a major crises in eastern Syria as the US withdraws.

US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal on December 19 and since then there have been discussions about what comes next. Turkey wants to launch a major operation into eastern Syria to strike at the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) which Ankara says are terrorists linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The YPG were partners of the US-led Coalition’s anti-ISIS campaign.

Syrian rebel groups aligned with Turkey have volunteered to help fight the YPG. One group already announced it would attack Manbij in northern Syria.

For the Syrian regime this is a problem because there are Syrian troops in eastern Syria in Qamishli and Hasakeh. The Syrian regime has amicable relations with the YPG but the regime must rely on Russia and Iran to help negotiate with Turkey in eastern Syria. As Damascus focuses on that, it also wanted a quiet Christmas to highlight stability after seven years of civil war. The airstrikes burst that quiet and will make Damascus wonder if worse is to come.

Israel has said it struck 200 targets in the last two years throughout Syria. Many of these were near Damascus according to local reports. But Syria thinks that the S-300 and Russia’s support will reduce the airstrikes.

Instead it appears Syria has not been successful at preventing an airstrike around Damascus. Even though its state media claims it intercepted all the missiles fired at targets near Damascus on December 25, that assertion is unlikely.

The Syrian government must now ask itself if Russia is serious about training it to use the S-300 and if the S-300 is effective.

These two issues relate to how Damascus will concentrate the challenges it still faces. Israel has said that as the US withdraws, Jerusalem will continue to challenge Iran in Syria. In addition there are reports that Russia could offer to help reduce Iranian influence or presence in Syria in return for something.

Syria’s regime looks at the region and realizes that decisions about what happens in Syria always seem to be outsourced to Moscow, Tehran or Ankara. For instance the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Geneva on December 18 to discuss a constitutional committee for Syria.

Russian defense officials visited Tehran on December 25 and Iran discussed expanding cooperation with Russia. Russia also speaks directly with Israel and reports indicate that this includes discussions about Syria.

Syria is trying to rebuild its reputation in the region. The Sudanese leader Omar Bashir went to Damascus on December 16 and Syria’s powerful intelligence chief Ali Mamluk went to Cairo on December 23. Normally that would look like Syria is coming in from the cold in the region, welcoming foreign leaders and working with Arab regimes after years of being treated like a pariah by much of the Arab League.

But Syria’s regime also wants to secure Damascus and wants to negotiate what happens in Idlib and in eastern Syria. Yet it has to rely on Russia for much of these details. It also has to rely on Russia for improving its air defenses around Damascus. The explosions and wild-firing of missiles on Tuesday illustrates that Damascus has a long way to go to confront airstrikes around its capital.

Hezbollah senior leaders and members were travelling to Damascus during the airstrikes that rocked areas west of the Syrian capital on Tuesday evening. They were reportedly hit during the air strikes leaving many questions as to why they were targeted and who they were.

Newsweek reported on Wednesday that Hezbollah leaders were targeted in the airstrikes. According to several sources, including the Lebanese website NewLebanon.info, the Hezbollah delegation was journeying to Damascus to board a flight bound for Tehran. They were heading to the funeral for Grand Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, an important Iranian cleric who was head of the Expediency Discernment Council. He passed away on December 24 and senior Iranian religious figures buried him on Wednesday. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei presided at the ceremonies according to Iranian Fars News. It now appears the Hezbollah delegation may have been heading to Damascus to board a flight to Tehran for the important event. Hezbollah and Iranian regime leaders regularly attend each others funerals and ceremonies. For instance IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani went to the grave of Jihad Mughniyeh in 2015 in Beirut.

The claim that the Hezbollah members were targeted and that they were traveling for the Shahroudi funeral has not been confirmed. Newsweek reported that a Department of Defense source had told them the strike was “conducted minutes after the leaders board a plane bound for Iran.” Strikes also targeted ammunition warehouses that held precision ammunition. The claim that the Hezbollah members had already boarded a plane has not been corroborated with any footage on the ground that shows a plane being hit. A strike on a plane at a Damascus airport would be a serious escalation. The report may be only partly accurate and may indicate the men were struck on the way to board a blame, not after they had boarded.

Syria’s state media SANA claims that Syrian air defense had “intercepted hostile missiles fired by Israeli warplanes from Lebanese territory and managed to drop most of the rockets before reaching their targets.” SANA says the airstrikes hit an ammunition depot and wounded only three soldiers. Several Syria observers, including the Twitter account @Syria_SR claimed the airstrikes were more complex than that, involving “55 munition, four waves [of cruise missiles] in 35 minutes and managed to hit 7 times in 2 different locations.” In response Syrian air defense fired 60 missiles to intercept the attack. Several Syrian SA-125 anti-air missiles misfired during the attempt to stop the attack, hitting areas around Damascus and causing confusion.

If the Hezbollah members were targeted it would not be the first time Hezbollah members have been struck in the same location on the roads that lead from Damascus over the mountains to Lebanon. For instance two Hezbollah members were killed in an airstrike near Dimas in December 2014. In addition in January 2015 “senior Hezbollah figures,” including Jihad Mughniyeh were killed near Quneitra. Mezzeh military airport was also struck in December 2016. Airstrikes also targeted an area near Saboura on the mountain road in November 2016 and in April 2017. The road that passes from Damascus via the Mezzeh military airport and Saboura, Dimas and then over to Lebanon is a 116km stretch of beautiful mountain driving that takes around 2 and a half hours on a normal day of traffic.

The allegation that the senior Hezbollah members were targeted on their way to the Shahroudi funeral has now been repeated by many sources on social media and online. Why would Hezbollah members expose themselves on the road to Damascus knowing that there have been tensions in the region in recent months. Did they feel safe, hoping Syria’s S-300 air defense system, supplied by Russia in the wake of the downing of a Russian IL-20 in September during an Israeli air strike, would provide them security? Targeted in the past on the same stretch of road they would have known its dangers. It doesn’t answer the final question of why they didn’t board a flight directly from Beirut and save themselves the drive and exposure.

Hezbollah media and pro-Syrian regime media has been silent on this issue. Iranian regime media has also been silent, discussing only the Syrian air defense system’s “success” at targeting the attack and continuing the story that only a warehouse was hit and several soldiers injured. In coming hours or days the Syrian regime or pro-Hezbollah media may begin to reveal what happened, especially if senior members of the group were killed they will want to hold lavish funerals for the “martyrs.” Hezbollah is often outspoken about these kinds of events. On December 3, for instance, Hezbollah claimed its member had not been hit in an alleged November 29 airstrike south of Damascus. This was to respond to rumors that its members had been targeted. Now the ball is in Hezbollah’s court once again to see if it will respond to the rumors from December 25 regarding its members being targeted.