Archive for December 24, 2018

Analysis: Dangers of a widening Iranian corridor through Syria

December 24, 2018

Source: Analysis: Dangers of a widening Iranian corridor through Syria

The Iranians want a land corridor stretching from Iran through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to move weapons and troops, threatening Israel and Jordan alike.

By Yaakov Lapin, BESA Center

In responding to President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of a withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Syria on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a brief statement that contained two messages.

“This is, of course, an American decision,” he said, emphasizing that it is not Israel’s place to tell its senior partner where to deploy troops. This is an important message to send, as it shows respect for America’s internal decisions on the use of military force.

Officially, Israel must not play a part in the argument now raging between the American defense establishment and Trump.

At the same time, Netanyahu’s statement did not contain any praise for the decision. This reflects real concern on Israel’s part over how the American exit will affect the regional balance of power.

“We will study its timetable, how it will be implemented, and, of course, its implications for us,” said the prime minister. “In any case, we will take care to maintain the security of Israel and to defend ourselves in this area.”

These comments are hardly a warm endorsement. Netanyahu’s statement reflects a veiled warning to the toxic regional actor that is set to most immediately benefit from Trump’s step: Iran.

The Islamic Republic is working hard to spread its influence, proxies, weapons, and terrorism across the Middle East. Its goal is to create a network of areas under its control, filled with armed organizations, weapons factories, and missile bases. Tehran wants to build these assets so it can later use them to attack Israel, and to threaten and extort moderate Sunni states that stand in the way of its regional hegemony.

The American troop presence in Syria’s east remains part of a “roadblock” to Iranian designs to infiltrate from Iraq.

The Iranian regime and its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) desire a land corridor stretching from Iran through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Control of such a corridor would enable Iran to move weapons, Shiite militias, and Iranian military formations from the east into Syria, threatening Israel and Jordan alike.

The seriousness of the threat was reflected in an airstrike on July 16 of this year, attributed by international media reports to Israel. That strike targeted Iranian forces that appeared to be building such a land corridor. The strike, on a villa on the Syrian-Iraqi border, reportedly resulted in a high number of casualties among Iraqi Shiite militia members and Iranian officers.

According to additional reports, Iran has also moved ballistic missiles to Iraq, placing them under the guardianship of Shiite militias, which has led to speculation that Israel may launch attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq.

In August of this year, a Shiite militia in Iraq claimed hostile drones targeted their storage facilities in an airstrike, though they did not identify the attacker.

Trying to deliver weapons from Iraq

Brig.-Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the Research Division in Israel Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence, said, “If…the [U.S.] forces in the south are going to leave the area, it would mean that the [Bashar] Assad forces and the Iranians will have full control over Syria. This would mean that they may try to deliver weapons from Iran through Iraq to Syria, and then to Lebanon, and there’s not going to be anything in between to stop them … that’s where the problem lies.”

Kuperwasser was referring to American special forces based near Tanaf, which is close to the borders of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. US forces are also stationed further to the north, near the Turkish border, where they work with Kurdish units.

Kuperwasser, who also served as director general of the Ministry of International Affairs and Strategy, added, “It’s true that the original mission, of getting rid of ISIS forces, was more or less accomplished. But the question was whether to still have U.S. troops in Syria to take care of the Iranian issue or not.”

Asked whether Tehran would be emboldened by the move, Kuperwasser responded that “the Iranians are going to be empowered and feel much stronger,” adding, “it’s not totally clear that the Islamic State cannot re-emerge, taking advantage of the weakening of their adversaries in this area, and they can rise again.”

Israel, he stressed, will take any measure it deems necessary to defend itself and never expected the U.S. to protect it with forces.

‘It’s a very unstable situation’

“The issue is that we have a common enemy,” Kuperwasser said, regarding the matter of U.S. troops on the ground in Syria. “The purpose of the U.S. forces in Syria was to act against those common enemies – Islamic State, [who are] ultra-radical Sunnis; and secondly, the ultra-radical Shiites, the Iranians. The American presence over there was a major impediment in the way of the Iranians, who tried to turn all of Syria into a territory of control for them. By moving forces away, it will make it easier for the Iranians to control Syria entirely. This is not something for Israel to have a say about. It is up to the Americans to determine their role.”

Russia, which has emerged as a bitter competitor to the U.S. in the region, will be “very satisfied” by Trump’s decision, Kuperwasser noted, and “will have more [of a] free hand to control what’s going on in Syria.” Indeed, shortly after the Trump announcement, Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the move, calling it “the right decision.”

Kuperwasser pointed out that Russia has been unable to keep Iran away from southern Syria, despite pledges to the contrary. “They pretend to take care of Israel’s concern. In the south [of Syria], they just announced again [that] they [had] managed to keep Iranian forces further away from the Syrian-Israeli border, 100 kilometers away,” he said.

“But the fact is that Syrian forces deployed in the Golan Heights are not totally Syrian. Some of them are actually forces that are subordinate to Iranian and Hezbollah command. Though they have a Syrian identity, they actually take orders from the Iranians and Hezbollah. This is a situation we are very concerned about, and I don’t think the Russians are doing enough to make sure that this doesn’t happen,” cautioned Kuperwasser.

Russia has, however, stepped up efforts to convince the Iranians not to bring in weapons into Syria. If Russia can consistently reduce Iran’s weapons’ trafficking, it would help stabilize the region, he argued.

Still, he warned, “it’s a very unstable situation, and we will have to wait and see if the Iranians really behave in a way that keeps the stability and quiet in Syria, and as an extension, if they turn Lebanon into an unstable area.”

The recent Hezbollah attack tunnels uncovered by the IDF, and attempts by Iran and Hezbollah to build precision missile sites in Lebanon, are examples of actions that destabilize the region.

With many question marks remaining, one thing appears to be clear following Trump’s announcement: Russia will solidify its control over Syria, and Moscow’s relationship with Israel will be even more important due to the vacuum left behind by Trump in the region.

Kuperwasser offered a simple formula for understanding the dynamics of Israel’s relationship with Russia.

“The Russians don’t want to end up facing Israeli aircraft in Syria,” he said. “The way to avoid it is to make sure that the Iranians don’t bring weapons through Syria because Israel won’t tolerate that delivery. The best way to avoid friction is simply to convince the Iranians not to bring weapons in.

Yaakov Lappin is a Research Associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He specializes in Israel’s defense establishment, military affairs, and the Middle Eastern strategic environment.

 

Erdogan is not a benevolent sultan of old, hes a monster that must be stopped

December 24, 2018

Source: Erdogan is not a benevolent sultan of old, hes a monster that must be stopped

Opinion: The world has a strange double standard on the Muslim world – it’s ok when they massacre their own, and the Turkish president is the master of it

Life was not always good for the Jews under the Ottomans and/or the Turks. But what is very clear is that the current Sultan, Recep

Tayyip Erdoğan, is an impudent anti-Semite. His repeated statements make it clear that his role model is former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and not sultans of yore who treated the Jews fairly. This attitude of Erdogan’s did not start today, or even with the 2010 Mavi Marmara crisis, when IDF troops and Turkish activists clashed on board a Gaza-bound boat with deadly results. When he was younger, Erdogan wrote a play called “Mas-Kom-Ya”, which depicts a conspiracy by the Freemasons, the Communists, and the Jews.Since 1984, Turkey has destroyed 3,000 Kurdish villages, implemented mass transfer of the local population and caused a “Kurdish Nakba” of two million people who became refugees in their own country. During this orchestrated war on the Kurdish people, there have been massacres during which 30,000 people were killed. Even if Israel made every effort, it could not scratch the surface of the horrors perpetrated by the Turks, not those of recent decades and certainly not those of the last century, including the genocide committed by the Turks against the Armenians, and the atrocities committed in the framework of the expulsion of Christians at the end of the First World War.

Kurds protesting against Erdogan in Germany (Photo: AP))

Kurds protesting against Erdogan in Germany (Photo: AP))

Erdogan himself is responsible for several massacres committed in recent years. For example, his soldiers raided the city of Cizre, in the northeast of the country, in February 2016. Hundreds of civilians hid in three basements, but it did not help them as Erdogan’s soldiers massacred them mercilessly. A total of 178 people were killed, most of them innocent civilians.

And this is one of many events. The list of crimes is long, but the world barely pays heed with them, because the guiding principle is all too familiar: As far as Muslims massacring Muslims is concerned – the world is silent. Muslims are treated like stupid children, and allowed to get away with much. The unfortunate Muslims on the receiving end complain bitterly about this treatment, which is seen as a license to commit atrocities.

Erdogan has managed to raise this principle to new heights. He complains about Israel, which is fighting jihad, while he also supports this jihad; he has erased the gap (although it is doubtful this gap even exists) between anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism; he commits massacres against his own people, while accusing Israel of massacring the Palestinians.

Erdogan’s anti-Semitic campaign continues with full force. Last year, Turkish TV aired an anti-Semitic series that included allegations of plots that were allegedly the brainchild the Jew Theodor Herzl, which were “inspired by real historical facts.” This was not the first antisemitic series. In Turkey, it’s routine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan  (Photo: Reuters)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Photo: Reuters)

One cannot easily dismmiss Erdogan, who in the past voiced opposition to Bashar Assad’s continued rule in Syria, but soon joined the axis of evil that includes Iran and Hezbollah. There are those who argue that Turkey’s economic interests will lead to restraint, but that’s a mistake. History proves that leaders of Erdogan’s ilk will pick ideological principles, especially those rooted in hatred, over national interests. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, whose founder, Hassan al-Banna, penned an article on the importance of the “industry of death.” That’s the idea, those are the principles that Erdogan follows.

It is important to note that the president of Turkey is not the enemy of Israel, he is the enemy of the free world. Europe already detests him; countries such as the Netherlands and Germany refused entry to ministers from his party. But this did not stop Erdogan from becoming the contractor for the project to stop the flow of refugees, for which he gets billions. This helps in the short term, but in the long run, Europe is cultivating a monster who is becoming increasingly racist and anti-Semitic.

Monsters like this must be stopped when they are small and toothless. But Europe has forgotten everything and learned nothing. And the monster continues to grow.

 

Iran says ready to respond, but U.S. aircraft carrier no threat

December 24, 2018

Source: Iran says ready to respond, but U.S. aircraft carrier no threat – Middle East – Jerusalem Post

“We will not allow this warship to come near our territorial waters in the Persian Gulf,” he added.

BY REUTERS
 DECEMBER 24, 2018 12:36

NIMITZ-CLASS aircraft

LONDON, Dec 24 – Iran said on Monday it was ready to respond to any hostile US action, but it did not consider the arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Gulf last week as a significant threat.

The USS John C. Stennis entered the Gulf on Friday, ending a long absence of US aircraft carriers in the region as tensions rise between Tehran and Washington.

“The presence of this warship is insignificant to us,” Iran’s Navy commander Habibollah Sayyari was quoted as saying by the semi-official ISNA news agency.

“We will not allow this warship to come near our territorial waters in the Persian Gulf,” he added.

Sayyari said the US navy was allowed to sail in international waters near Iran, just as the Iranian navy could sail in the Atlantic Ocean near US waters.

He said, however, that Iran was on alert for possible threats. “They do not have the courage or ability to take any measures against us. We have enough capabilities to stand against their actions and we have fully rehearsed for that.”

A US-Iranian war of words has escalated since US President Donald Trump withdrew Washington in May from a world powers’ nuclear deal with Iran, and reimposed sanctions on its banking and energy sectors.

Iran has warned that if it cannot sell its oil due to US pressures, then no other regional country will be allowed to do so either, threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf.

A fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait from Middle East crude producers to major markets.In recent years, there have been periodic confrontations between Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and US military in the Gulf, but the number of incidents has dropped in recent months.

IDF opens fire at gunmen approaching border fence from Syria 

December 24, 2018

Source: IDF opens fire at gunmen approaching border fence from Syria | The Times of Israel

Army working to determine if suspects crossed 1974 ceasefire line for intelligence-gathering purposes; no Israeli injuries reported

A picture taken on July 4, 2018 from the Golan Heights shows displaced Syrians from the province of Daraa staging a protest (top L) calling for international protection, in the Syrian village of al-Rafid, near the border fence with Israel. (AFP/Jalaa Marey)

A picture taken on July 4, 2018 from the Golan Heights shows displaced Syrians from the province of Daraa staging a protest (top L) calling for international protection, in the Syrian village of al-Rafid, near the border fence with Israel. (AFP/Jalaa Marey)

IDF soldiers opened fire at a group of gunmen who crossed the 1974 ceasefire line in the Golan Heights and were approaching Israel’s border fence from Syria, the army said Sunday night.

No Israeli injuries were reported in the incident and the IDF was working to determine whether the unidentified individuals had been on an intelligence-gathering operation.

The 1974 ceasefire accord marked the end of the previous year’s Yom Kippur War and established a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. The area closest to the border became a full demilitarized zone, where only the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force and police could operate, while the rest of the buffer zone had strict limits on the number and types of military units and equipment allowed inside it.

The gunmen were said to have entered the demilitarized zone, but did not cross the border with Israel.

In October a border crossing between enemy nations Syria and Israel reopened at Quneitra, four years after it closed as UN observers fled the area due to fierce fighting in the Syrian civil war. The move marked a de facto recognition by Israel that dictator President Bashar Assad has returned to govern in southern Syria, after he defeated rebel groups in the area earlier this summer.

Israeli soldiers guard at the Quneitra border crossing with Syria in the Golan Heights on September 27, 2018. (Basel Awidat/Flash90)

Sunday’s incident comes just days after US President Donald Trump shocked the world — and his own defense and foreign policy officials — by declaring that the US had fulfilled its mission in Syria of defeating the Islamic State terror group and was therefore planning to remove its troops from the country. Defense analysts and officials from around the world largely rejected the claim that IS had been defeated, citing the terror group’s thousands of fighters still operating inside Syria despite its territorial losses.

Israel’s Channel 10 news reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried in vain to persuade Trump to change his mind, and that there was tremendous “disappointment” in Jerusalem over the pullout, which is regarded as a victory for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

The TV report described the US move as “a slap in the face” for Israel, noting that the US presence in Syria was “the only bargaining chip” in Israel’s efforts to persuade Russia to prevent Iran deepening its entrenchment in Syria.

For Israel, the pullout leaves it without a staunch ally in the fight against Iran in Syria and potentially opens the door for the Islamic Republic to create a so-called “land bridge” from Iran, through Iraq and Syria, into Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea.

Until now, American troops have been stationed in northeastern Syria, along the Iraqi border, blocking such a corridor, through which Iran could more easily distribute advanced weapons and technology throughout the region, especially to its Lebanese client the Hezbollah terrorist army.

IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot speaks at a conference in the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya on December 23, 2018. (Eli Dassa/IDC)

Earlier on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot called the White House’s decision to pull its troops from Syria a “significant event,” but said the Israeli military would continue to independently fight Iran’s military presence in the neighboring country.

In August, the IDF said it conducted an airstrike that killed seven Islamic State fighters who had crossed the ceasefire line. The gunmen had made it some 200 meters (650 feet) past the “alpha line” but did not manage to reach the technical fence bordering the Israeli Golan Heights, IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said.

A number of explosive belts and a Kalashnikov rifle were later found during searches of the area, according to the army.

Those gunmen had crossed into the Israeli territory through the Syria-Jordan-Israel border triangle.

The army later released a short clip showing the IS gunmen heading toward Israel and Israeli soldiers crossing into no-man’s land to search for them. Conricus said that there had been no threat to Israeli communities along the northern border, but he did not say whether the IS gunmen were intending to attack Israeli military targets.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

 

IDF opens fire at gunmen approaching border fence from Syria 

December 24, 2018

Source: IDF opens fire at gunmen approaching border fence from Syria | The Times of Israel

Army working to determine if suspects crossed 1974 ceasefire line for intelligence-gathering purposes; no Israeli injuries reported

A picture taken on July 4, 2018 from the Golan Heights shows displaced Syrians from the province of Daraa staging a protest (top L) calling for international protection, in the Syrian village of al-Rafid, near the border fence with Israel. (AFP/Jalaa Marey)

A picture taken on July 4, 2018 from the Golan Heights shows displaced Syrians from the province of Daraa staging a protest (top L) calling for international protection, in the Syrian village of al-Rafid, near the border fence with Israel. (AFP/Jalaa Marey)

IDF soldiers opened fire at a group of gunmen who crossed the 1974 ceasefire line in the Golan Heights and were approaching Israel’s border fence from Syria, the army said Sunday night.

No Israeli injuries were reported in the incident and the IDF was working to determine whether the unidentified individuals had been on an intelligence-gathering operation.

The 1974 ceasefire accord marked the end of the previous year’s Yom Kippur War and established a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. The area closest to the border became a full demilitarized zone, where only the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force and police could operate, while the rest of the buffer zone had strict limits on the number and types of military units and equipment allowed inside it.

The gunmen were said to have entered the demilitarized zone, but did not cross the border with Israel.

In October a border crossing between enemy nations Syria and Israel reopened at Quneitra, four years after it closed as UN observers fled the area due to fierce fighting in the Syrian civil war. The move marked a de facto recognition by Israel that dictator President Bashar Assad has returned to govern in southern Syria, after he defeated rebel groups in the area earlier this summer.

Israeli soldiers guard at the Quneitra border crossing with Syria in the Golan Heights on September 27, 2018. (Basel Awidat/Flash90)

Sunday’s incident comes just days after US President Donald Trump shocked the world — and his own defense and foreign policy officials — by declaring that the US had fulfilled its mission in Syria of defeating the Islamic State terror group and was therefore planning to remove its troops from the country. Defense analysts and officials from around the world largely rejected the claim that IS had been defeated, citing the terror group’s thousands of fighters still operating inside Syria despite its territorial losses.

Israel’s Channel 10 news reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried in vain to persuade Trump to change his mind, and that there was tremendous “disappointment” in Jerusalem over the pullout, which is regarded as a victory for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

The TV report described the US move as “a slap in the face” for Israel, noting that the US presence in Syria was “the only bargaining chip” in Israel’s efforts to persuade Russia to prevent Iran deepening its entrenchment in Syria.

For Israel, the pullout leaves it without a staunch ally in the fight against Iran in Syria and potentially opens the door for the Islamic Republic to create a so-called “land bridge” from Iran, through Iraq and Syria, into Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea.

Until now, American troops have been stationed in northeastern Syria, along the Iraqi border, blocking such a corridor, through which Iran could more easily distribute advanced weapons and technology throughout the region, especially to its Lebanese client the Hezbollah terrorist army.

IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot speaks at a conference in the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya on December 23, 2018. (Eli Dassa/IDC)

Earlier on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot called the White House’s decision to pull its troops from Syria a “significant event,” but said the Israeli military would continue to independently fight Iran’s military presence in the neighboring country.

In August, the IDF said it conducted an airstrike that killed seven Islamic State fighters who had crossed the ceasefire line. The gunmen had made it some 200 meters (650 feet) past the “alpha line” but did not manage to reach the technical fence bordering the Israeli Golan Heights, IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said.

A number of explosive belts and a Kalashnikov rifle were later found during searches of the area, according to the army.

Those gunmen had crossed into the Israeli territory through the Syria-Jordan-Israel border triangle.

The army later released a short clip showing the IS gunmen heading toward Israel and Israeli soldiers crossing into no-man’s land to search for them. Conricus said that there had been no threat to Israeli communities along the northern border, but he did not say whether the IS gunmen were intending to attack Israeli military targets.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

 

Off Topic:  UK army said to use Israeli-made system to end drone chaos at London airport 

December 24, 2018

Source: UK army said to use Israeli-made system to end drone chaos at London airport | The Times of Israel

After hours of futile efforts, UK daily says Rafael’s ‘Drone Dome’ was brought in to ground UAV that caused tens of thousands of passengers at Gatwick to miss their flights

A drone that was grounded using Rafael's 'Drone Dome' system. (Screen capture: YouTube)

A drone that was grounded using Rafael’s ‘Drone Dome’ system. (Screen capture: YouTube)

The British military reportedly used an Israeli anti-drone system to ground an unmanned aerial vehicle that shuttered the airfield at London’s Gatwick Airport for over 36 hours beginning Thursday, stranding tens of thousands of passengers.

Flights resumed Friday at Gatwick, the United Kingdom’s second busiest airport, while police said they were still hunting for the drone operator or operators and Transport Secretary Chris Grayling said “military capabilities” were being deployed to safeguard the airport.

Though Grayling did not give details on what equipment was being deployed, The Daily Mail reported that the British Army used the Israeli-made “Drone Dome” to bring down the UAV after police failed for hours to do so with a commercial anti-drone system.

Six of the systems, which were developed by Israeli defense firm Rafael, were sold to the UK Ministry of Defense in August in an estimated $20 million deal, according to Israel’s Globes financial daily.

According to RADA Electronic Industries, which makes the radars used in the Drone Dome, the system can identify drones from 3-5 kilometers (1.8-3 miles) away using 360-degree detection technology.

The Drone Dome can then use its electro-optical sensors to jam the radio frequencies being used by the drone’s operator to control it, making the UAV inoperable and bringing it down in a so-called “soft-kill.”

The system also has a laser that can melt drones, but the Daily Mail said this technology was not purchased by Britain.

Police officers stand near equipment on the rooftop of a building at London Gatwick Airport, south of London, on December 21, 2018. (Ben Stansall/AFP)

The British military on Thursday joined police and aviation authorities in the search for the culprit or culprits behind the drone intrusion, which police said was designed to cause maximum disruption over the holiday period.

“There are a range of measures which are there today which should give passengers confidence that they are safe to fly,” Grayling, the transportation minister, told the BBC.

Grayling said there had been about 40 sightings of “a small number of drones” while the airport was shut down. He told the BBC the drone disruption at Gatwick was “unprecedented anywhere in the world.”

The last confirmed drone sighting was at 10 p.m. Thursday.

Officials said shooting down a drone remained a “tactical option” but there were concerns that any weapon used to attack the drone could inadvertently hurt people on the ground.

The airport, about 30 miles (45 kilometers) south of central London, sees more than 43 million passengers a year. About 110,000 had been scheduled to pass through on Thursday, one of the busiest days of the year.

The runway closure has had a spillover impact on the international air travel system, and thousands of passengers remain short of their destinations.

An information board shows scheduled flights arrivals cancelled and diverted at London Gatwick Airport, south of London, on December 20, 2018 after all flights were grounded due to drones flying over the airfield. (Glyn Kirk/AFP)

Many holiday plans were disrupted and travelers stuck at Gatwick described freezing conditions as hundreds slept on benches and floors. Many passengers and their families complained they weren’t being kept informed about re-routed flights.

Authorities haven’t released details about the drones being used except to characterize them as meeting “industrial specifications.”

The motive for the drone use isn’t clear. Police say there is no indication it is “terror related.”

 

Israel sees limits of Trump support with Syria pullout

December 24, 2018

Source: Israel sees limits of Trump support with Syria pullout | The Times of Israel

Beneath public pronouncements that it respects US decision are concerns that Iran will seek to take advantage of vacuum in war-torn country

US President Donald Trump (r) meets with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House, March 5, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

AFP — Israeli leaders have lauded Donald Trump for his list of decisions in support of their country since taking office, but the mercurial US president’s withdrawal of US troops from Syria will not rank among them.

After Trump’s surprise announcement of the pullout last week, Israel is concerned over whether its main enemy Iran will have a freer hand to operate in the neighboring country, analysts say.

Israel’s response to the announcement has been measured — careful to point out that it respects the US decision, coupled with pledges to continue to defend its interests in Syria.

But beneath those public pronouncements are worries over whether Iran will seek to take advantage of the US absence from the war-torn country and if Russia will respond to Israel’s calls to limit it.

In this file from November 4, 2018, US forces patrol the Kurdish-held town of Al-Darbasiyah in northeastern Syria. (Delil Souleiman/AFP)

Beyond that, the manner in which the decision was taken and announced — and US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s resignation in response — may also give Israeli leaders pause, some analysts say.

“Since it’s our major ally, we want the United States to be strong … and we want an ally which is being perceived in the region as strong and effective,” said Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University, who has written extensively on Syria.

“And I think that what worries some Israelis is what message does this decision — the way it was taken, what stood behind it — send to the region?”

‘Even expand our activities’

The United States has only around 2,000 troops in Syria focused on fighting the Islamic State group, but they have been deployed in two areas along the Iraqi border, helping keep Iranian movement into the country in check.

There have been warnings from Israel and others that Iran is seeking to form a “land bridge” across to the Mediterranean, and some analysts have said that the US withdrawal could help that effort.

With Iran supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s civil war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long pledged to keep it from entrenching itself militarily next door.

US forces, accompanied by Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighters, drive their armored vehicles near the northern Syrian village of Darbasiyah, on the border with Turkey, April 28, 2017 . (DELIL SOULEIMAN / AFP)

Israel has repeatedly taken action, carrying out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against what it says are Iranian military targets and advanced arms deliveries to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese group.

With the United States pulling out, Israel may look more to Russia, which is also backing Assad, to use its influence to limit Iran, some analysts say.

But that is not a given, and a friendly fire incident in September that led to a Russian plane being downed by Syrian air defenses during an Israeli strike remains an issue.

The incident angered Russia and complicated Israel’s operations in Syria, particularly after Moscow’s delivery of the advanced S-300 air defense system there in response.

Netanyahu and Israel’s military chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, on Sunday sought to tamp down concerns over the withdrawal.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) meets US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the UN in New York on September 26, 2018 (Avi Ohayon/GPO)

The Israeli premier has indicated he was not taken off-guard, saying he had spoken with Trump two days before the December 19 announcement as well as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo the previous day.

“The decision to remove the 2,000 US soldiers from Syria won’t change our consistent policy,” Netanyahu said Sunday.

“We will continue to act against Iran’s attempt to establish a military presence in Syria, and if the need arises, we will even expand our activities there.”

‘A free ride’

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu and ex-military intelligence official, noted US troops were not directly involved in Israel’s fight against Iran’s presence in Syria.

But he said concerns over whether Iran will take advantage of the US withdrawal were legitimate.

“From now on, it will be a free ride for the Iranians and they will use the corridor logistically to enhance their capabilities to build the military forces in Syria and to help Hezbollah afterwards,” he told AFP.

An analysis by the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank said “Israel is among the most important losers” of the withdrawal, along with the United States’ Kurdish allies in Syria.

But Netanyahu has vowed that Israel will continue to “defend ourselves” and Eisenkot, the military chief of staff, called it “a significant event but it should not be overstated.”

“For decades we’ve been handling this front alone,” said Eisenkot.

 

US Syria withdrawal may speed up Arab-Israeli detente, well-connected rabbi says 

December 24, 2018

Source: US Syria withdrawal may speed up Arab-Israeli detente, well-connected rabbi says | The Times of Israel

Marc Schneier, who this month was named a ‘special adviser’ to the king of Bahrain, predicts a Netanyahu visit to Manama as early as January

Rabbi Marc Schneier (left) with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (courtesy The Foundation for Ethnic Understanding)

Rabbi Marc Schneier (left) with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (courtesy The Foundation for Ethnic Understanding)

The withdrawal of US troops from Syria has the potential to warm Israel’s ties with the Sunni Arab states, a prominent American rabbi and interfaith activist with extensive ties in the Gulf said this week, arguing that US President Donald Trump’s unexpected move exacerbates the Arab world’s worries about Iran’s hegemonic ambitions in the region.

The rabbi, Marc Schneier of New York, also predicted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Bahrain next month, and that the small Gulf kingdom will soon establish formal ties with Israel.

“The US moving out of Syria might accelerate this deal of bringing Israel and the Gulf together,” Schneier told The Times of Israel in an interview Sunday in Jerusalem, citing a conversation with unnamed senior official sources in the Arabian peninsula.

“The Gulf has two existential threats: an economic downturn in the Gulf, [caused by] diminishing demands of oil, and the aggression by Iran and its allies,” Schneier went on. “Now, with US troops moving out of Syria, Iran has now taken over the top position.”

Schneier said Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, Khalid bin Salman, recently told him that the reason for the Gulf’s rapprochement with Israel was his country’s current enmity toward the Islamic Republic.

“That’s reason number two,” the rabbi cited the ambassador as saying. “Reason number one is economics.”

The kingdom wants to reform its economy, and “we can’t do it without Israel,” Schneier quoted bin Salman as saying.

But, the rabbi went on, “what happened now, based on my conversation last night, is that Iran has now taken over the race” and has become the number one force driving the Sunni Arab world’s opening to Israel.

Trump’s surprising announcement last week that he would withdraw the remaining 2,000 US troops from eastern Syria sparked worries in Israel and across the region about Iran seeking to fill the vacuum and expand its aggressive actions. Tehran’s hegemonic ambitions have been the main factor in the Arab world’s increasingly open but still undeclared alliance with the Jewish state.

Schneier, the founder and head of the Foundation for Ethnic Understanding, has for many years conducted extensive ties with the rulers of many Muslim countries, including nearly all Gulf states.

Earlier this year, he was named a “special adviser” to the king of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. In this unpaid position, the rabbi was tasked with assisting the King Hamad Global Centre for Peaceful Coexistencebased in Manama, and to “help in preserving and growing the country’s Jewish community,” he said.

“There’s a growing interest on part of Gulf leaders to developing Jewish life,” said Schneier, who established and runs a Jewish community in the Hamptons.

Earlier this month, The Times of Israel for the first time revealed the existence of a tiny Jewish community in Dubai. Jewish communities exist also in Bahrain and Qatar, according to Schneier.

“There is a genuine commitment and desire to establish relations with Israel,” he said. “It used to be, ‘Let the Israelis and Palestinians work our their differences and then call us.’ Now it’s, ‘Let the Israelis and Palestinians be in discussion and at the same time we can discuss establishing relations,’” he said.

“I predict that in in 2019 it will happen. You will see one or two Gulf states establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. I think Bahrain will be the first.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) talks with Sultan Qaboos bin Said in Oman on October 26, 2018 (Courtesy)

Netanyahu, who in October unexpectedly visited Oman, will probably be invited to Manama as soon as next month, he envisaged. “My gut tells me that it’s going to happen in January,” he said. “I know that the king of Bahrain is very committed to establishing relations. Their only hesitation would be to allow the Saudis to have the honor first.”

Earlier this month, Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa defied Arab consensus and defended Australia’s recognition of West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. He also expressed support for Israel’s operation to expose and destroy attack tunnels the Shiite terrorist group Hezbollah has dug across the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Schneier, who is married to an Israeli, dismissed the Arab states’ vote against a US-sponsored United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Hamas. “Two steps forward, one step back,” he said.

Many Israelis mistakenly believe that the Gulf leadership no longer cares about the Palestinians, according to Schneier, who regularly travels to the region. “There is nothing further from the truth. They are still very concerned about the Palestinian cause,” he said.

“I am not saying we have arrived at the promised land of Gulf-Israel relations. But the good news is that the journey has begun. It doesn’t mean that you don’t have hurdles along the trail.”

 

Early elections called for April 9 as coalition agrees to dissolve Knesset 

December 24, 2018

Source: Early elections called for April 9 as coalition agrees to dissolve Knesset | The Times of Israel

Government says all parties have agreed on national polls after ‘full four-year term,’ amid disagreements over ultra-Orthodox draft law

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset on November 21, 2018 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset on November 21, 2018 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Amid a series of coalition crises and deliberations over a possible indictment against Prime Minister Benjamin Netnayahu, coalition leaders announced Monday that Israel will head to the polls within four months, with a general election set for April.

“Out of national and budgetary responsibility, the leaders of the coalition parties decided, unanimously and unanimously, to dissolve the Knesset and go to new elections at the beginning of April after a four-year term,” the heads of the five coalition parties said in a joint statement.

Elections were previously slated for November 2019, and the announcement means that Knesset members will vote to dissolve parliament early. Hebrew media reports said the elections would likely be held on April 9.

Despite ongoing disagreements over the ultra-Orthodox draft bill, which was the initial impetus for their meeting Monday, the coalition heads stressed that none of the parties will leave the government and that “the partnership in the Knesset and in the government will continue during the elections.”

The announcement came after MK Yair Lapid announced that his opposition Yesh Atid party will vote against the coalition’s bill on the military draft of ultra-Orthodox men, claiming that the government was preparing an “under the table” deal that would change the import of the legislation.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court granted the government a further month and a half to pass the bill, extending an early December deadline to mid-January. Without the extension, thousands of yeshiva students would have become eligible to be drafted.

Elections will likely mean a further extension will be granted.

The decision to go to the polls comes just a month after Avigdor Liberman resigned as defense minister and pulled his Yisrael Beytenu party out of the coalition, leaving it with a paper-thin majority of just 61 out of 120 Knesset members.

The decision also comes as Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit is set to begin reviewing materials to decide on possible charges against Netanyahu this week, embarking on the most high-stakes stage yet of a several-year legal entanglement that has threatened to upend the country’s political system.

State Prosecutor Shai Nitzan said Wednesday he was wrapping up recommendations on three cases against Netanyahu for Mandelblit, which reportedly include recommendations that the premier be indicted on bribery charges over an affair in which he is accused of kicking back regulatory favors in exchange for positive media coverage.

Mandelblit is expected to convene his legal team to begin working on the hundreds of pages of testimony and other evidence in the three cases on Monday, the Ynet news site reported.

Of the cases Netanyahu is suspected of illegal activity in, the one known as Case 4000 is considered by the State Prosecutor’s Office to be the most serious, according to Israeli television reports.

In that case, Netanyahu is suspected of having advanced regulatory decisions as communications minister and prime minister from 2015 to 2017 that benefited Shaul Elovitch, the controlling shareholder in Bezeq, the country’s largest telecommunications firm, in exchange for positive coverage from Elovitch’s Walla news site.

In another affair, Case 1000, Netanyahu is suspected of receiving benefits worth about NIS 1 million ($282,000) from billionaire benefactors, including Israeli Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan, in exchange for assistance on various issues.

A third, Case 2000, involves a suspected illicit quid pro quo deal between Netanyahu and Yedioth Ahronoth publisher Arnon Mozes that would have seen the prime minister hobble a rival daily newspaper, the Sheldon Adelson-backed freebie Israel Hayom, in return for more favorable coverage from Yedioth.

 

Israel votes against Russia at UN over annexation of Crimea 

December 24, 2018

Source: Israel votes against Russia at UN over annexation of Crimea – Israel Hayom