WarSclerotic

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw ‎American troops from Syria shocked many in the ‎United States and the Middle East.

While in Israel ‎most of the public discourse revolves around the ‎challenges in this process, we seem to be ‎largely ignoring the question of what opportunities ‎it may present. For one, could Israel, as ‎compensation, secure a pledge from Washington to ‎help it in times of war and on other vital ‎diplomatic issues?‎

Given the recent discovery of Hezbollah’s grid of ‎terror tunnels and Iran’s attempts to upgrade its ‎offensive capabilities, it is reasonable to assume ‎that Israel is closer than it has ever been in the ‎last decade to a war in the northern sector. This could prove highly complex from a ‎military standpoint and even a legal-diplomatic one: Most of Hezbollah’s arsenal of 130,000 projectiles is hidden under civilian homes. ‎Neutralizing them would require investing ‎considerable military resources and likely ‎entail large civilian losses.‎

It is important to remember that in the last four ‎military campaigns since 2006, Israel has had to ask ‎the United States for additional ammunition, and it ‎would probably have to do the same in a future war. ‎Israel would also likely need diplomatic and legal ‎backing to defend it against condemnations in ‎the U.N. Security Council and the International ‎Criminal Court.‎

The same opportunity exists regarding the situation ‎opposite Hamas in the Gaza Strip: Israel can win ‎a U.S. commitment for the post-Hamas era ‎there. Naturally, the IDF is capable of removing ‎Hamas from the Gaza Strip on its own, but the ‎question is who would take its place. ‎

Understandings could be reached with the ‎U.S. – and through it, the Sunni world – on Gaza’s rehabilitation and the ‎establishment of an economic infrastructure for the civilian population there.‎

As Israel prepares for military campaigns in its ‎north and its south, as part of my position as ‎deputy minister for public diplomacy at the Prime ‎Minister’s Office, I am promoting a first-of-its-kind initiative to develop the Golan Heights. ‎

The goal is to have more than 100,000 Israelis move ‎to the area over the next decade, thereby increasing ‎the Israeli population there by five times, and ‎establish the necessary industrial and ‎transportation infrastructure.‎

My efforts have already gained widespread ‎support domestically and internationally.

Now, ‎given the fragile situation in Syria, Israel must ‎reach a comprehensive understanding with the U.S. on ‎recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan ‎Heights. This would send a message to our ‎enemies about the decisive American position on the eternal Israeli ownership of the Golan ‎Heights.‎

It would be a good idea to make a large portion of ‎these commitments public in multiple languages. Such ‎a move would bolster the U.S.’s somewhat bruised ‎image in the Middle East and even reinforce its ‎ability to promote diplomatic processes and its ‎position as a very effective mediator in possible ‎peace negotiations. ‎

It is no secret that during the Obama ‎administration, the U.S. lost some of its status ‎in the region. The Trump administration has taken ‎several steps – from striking Syrian assets in ‎response to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s use ‎of chemical weapons to pulling out of the 2015 ‎nuclear deal with Iran – to improve this situation. ‎

A commitment to aid Israel would be a continuation ‎of this policy of improvement, presenting multiple ‎possibilities not only for Israel but also for the ‎Trump administration. ‎

The recent changes in the region present a one-time ‎opportunity for Israel, and we should take advantage ‎of it.‎

The announcement that the United States is withdrawing its forces from Syria should not really have come as a surprise to anyone in Israel’s diplomatic-security circles or the media.

But with most of the focus in Israel on tactical steps rather than well-ordered strategies, we once again woke up to a surprise reality that Israel does not want.

From the time the Syrian war broke out in 2011, Israel has chosen to ignore the historic processes taking place on the other side of the border. While Russia, Turkey and Iran spotted the geopolitical opportunities the war presented and adapted their regional activities in accordance, Israel opted to wish all sides involved good luck and preened about tactical military achievements.

Israel had a clear strategic interest in seeing the war end with Syria split into three states, based on the ethnic population distribution: Alawite-Shiite, Sunni, and Kurds. If that had come to pass, it would have been enough to block Iranian expansion, and beyond that, it would have presented a strategic opportunity to redraw a historical border that expressed international recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights, which comprise a mere one percent of Syrian territory. That interest dovetailed with the international desire to prevent mass murder, uphold human rights, and prevent an exodus of refugees.

Israel missed a historic opportunity to speed up vital changes in arranging borders in the Middle East that were drawn up forcibly at the end of World War I. Now, the withdrawal of American forces from Syria demands that Israel exert all its influence to convince its U.S. ally to adopt a “hybrid” mentality on everything having to do with Syria and recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli as the final steps of the pullout.

A move like that would serve long-term U.S. interests in defending Israel’s security and the stability of Jordan, without keeping any forces on the ground. The Golan is only viable if it remains in Israeli hands, and any Israeli withdrawal to the shores of the Sea of Galilee would ensure an inherent lack of stability that sooner or later would require U.S. military intervention.

There are no vacuums in the Middle East. In the absence of determined, immediate action by Israel to secure U.S. recognition of Israel’s sovereignty on the Golan – before the U.S. withdraws from Syria – Israel could find itself facing international demand for a dream deal for Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iran: Iran would withdraw from Syria – which would remain under the cover of various militias, similar to the Hezbollah model in Lebanon – in exchange for Israel withdrawing from the Golan Heights.

The clouds hanging over international politics could wind up creating a perfect storm, to Israel’s detriment. One morning, we could wake up to another, much bigger surprise: unrestrained international pressure to withdraw from the Golan Heights, in the spirit of the “solution” raised before the Syrian war.

Those who see this as a nightmare scenario should ask themselves whether they envisioned that within a few years of the start of the Syrian war, Iranian forces would be a stone’s throw from Quneitra, and that Assad would be back in power after hundreds of thousands of his own people were killed and millions more turned into refugees.