Archive for December 21, 2018

Amid rising tensions, Israel begins neutralizing ‎Hezbollah cross-border terror tunnels 

December 21, 2018

Source: Amid rising tensions, Israel begins neutralizing ‎Hezbollah cross-border terror tunnels – Israel Hayom

 

A predictable move in Syria 

December 21, 2018

Source: A predictable move in Syria – Israel Hayom

Prof. Abraham Ben-Tzvi

Contrary to popular belief, U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to end America’s military presence in Syria in the near future was not a spur-of-the-moment decision. The opposite is true. This is the implementation of a plan that has been formulated for some time, one that was anchored in Trump’s original position to disengage from the centers of conflict, war and crisis that he does not believe to present an immediate and tangible threat to American security.

Ever since his election campaign, Trump’s view has been that U.S. involvement in Syria, initiated by his predecessor Barack Obama’s White House in 2015, embodies the dangerous potential in getting involved in a bloody conflict. It is true that as long as the Islamic State group constituted a central terrorist threat in Syria, the president accepted America’s continued presence in the arena, provided it remained limited to the northeastern region, with the Kurdish enclave at its center. Now, with the murderous organization in significant decline, the decision to disengage is a natural move for Trump, who has made his desire to reduce the scope of America’s overall commitment and involvement overseas abundantly clear.

The president has repeatedly reiterated his intention to leave Syria and he did not set any preconditions, such as achieving a comprehensive diplomatic resolution in Syria, for the exit of foreign forces from the territory.

In other words, in Trump’s minimalist view of the array of U.S. interests, Syria does not meet the requirement for necessary direct military intervention. Against this background, the apocalyptic warning that the disengagement from Syria will cause massive damage to the U.S.’s overall standing appears to be without basis.

Was the minimal presence of 2,000 American military advisers, counselors and security officials in a narrow strip in Syria’s northeast enough to project power and dramatically influence what transpires not only in Syria but throughout the region? Moreover, will the withdrawal be enough to undermine the prestige of the American superpower on a front defined by Washington as marginal from the outset and a time in which the White House has yet to delineate the Kremlin a sworn global enemy? It is for this reason that, although one cannot dismiss the price the Kurdish minority may be forced to pay as a result, the U.S. troop withdrawal is not expected to result in any tectonic fractures in the general Syrian court.

And as for Israel, America’s disengagement was predictable and could provide Iran with greater room to maneuver and engage in threatening actions. The key to minimizing the damage from America’s exit from Syria can be found in both Washington and Moscow. We cannot rule out the possibility that the U.S. administration will decide on taking a conciliatory and trust-building diplomatic step, such as throwing its support behind the initiative now being forged in the Senate to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

As for the Kremlin, the U.S. troop withdrawal could lead to Russia expanding and deepening its strategic coordination with Israel in Syria’s skies, not necessarily out of a sense of affinity or excessive sensitivity to Israel’s security concerns but rather to ensure the system of checks and balances aimed at preventing Iran’s excessive empowerment in the Syrian sphere is preserved.

 

The IDF must cut short tunnel operation, get set for repercussions from Trump’s stunning Syria withdrawal – DEBKAfile

December 21, 2018

Source: The IDF must cut short tunnel operation, get set for repercussions from Trump’s stunning Syria withdrawal – DEBKAfile

Israel’s leaders – government, military and intelligence – were dumbfounded by US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull US troops out of Syria as part of its withdrawal from the Mid-East at large.

Senior ministers received no answers to their urgent calls to the prime minister’s office and Military Intelligence (AMAN) officers for confirmation of the news. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, himself, only received word of the decision just five minutes before it hit Twitter, DEBKAfile sources have learned, although he talked to the president and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo some days ago.

In recent conversations with US National Security Adviser John Bolton, as well as Pompeo, about the IDF operation against Hizballah tunnels, both US officials assured Netanyahu that he had nothing to worry about. US troops were present in eastern and northern Syria, they said, and they would not let pro-Iranian Iraqi militias come through from western Iraq to the aid of Hizballah.

Israeli officials were further dismayed early Thursday, Dec. 20, when they understood that the only leaders to receive prior notice of Trump’s decision were Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. This was inferred from intelligence of a secret deal, which the president’s adviser on Syrian affairs James Jeffrey had reached with Erdogan and which opened the way for Turkish military movements in Syria in the wake of the US pullout.

As recently as Monday, Dec. 17, Jeffrey told the Atlantic Council in Washington in a speech: “The eventual goal of the mainly-Kurdish Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) should be to become part of the fabric of a changed Syrian society. We do not have permanent relationships with sub-state entities.” This was taken as a clear repudiation of US responsibility for the fate of its Kurdish allies.

The coming issue of DEBKA Weekly (for subscribers), out on Friday, Dec.21, uncovers the secret decision-making process at the White House which led up to the Trump decision without Israel picking up a hint of its purpose. (Click here to subscribe.)

Some clues could have been picked up, for instance, from Russia’s deployment in early December of an S-300 air defense battalion in the Deir ez-Zour province of eastern Syria, without demur from Washington, although US troops were nearby. DEBKAfile alone reported the Russian move at the time.

Israel is also discovering in the last few hours that Tehran and Hizballah stayed silent when Israel launched its operation to uncover Hizballah tunnels last week – not because they were taken aback, as some Israeli officials claimed – but because they had advance notice of the US withdrawal – either from Moscow or from Ankara – and saw it being totally eclipsed in importance by the sensation about to be landed by President Trump.

DEBKAfile’s military sources stress that the IDF must wrap up this operation with all possible speed and lose no time in getting set for the major repercussions about to roll in on Israel’s northern front as soon as the 2,200 US forces depart Syria. The reorganization required could take months of intense work.