WarSclerotic

As the Middle East ushers in 2019, the decade’s ruinous conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq seem to be winding down after exacting a painful price – many thousands killed, millions uprooted from their homes and entire cities reduced to rubble.

Yet the potential for unrest remains high, including in countries that escaped civil war after the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, such as Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. Millions of young people in the region remain locked out of economic and political participation as authoritarian governments fail to tackle soaring youth unemployment and other deeply rooted problems.

“I think 2019 is a very challenging year,” said analyst Amer Sabaileh in Jordan, where weekly rallies against economic policies toppled a prime minister this year and now take aim at his successor.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy of siding with one Middle East powerhouse, Saudi Arabia, against its main rival, Iran, has further heightened regional tensions. For now, Tehran seems determined to wait out Trump’s presidency, sticking to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers despite the U.S. withdrawal and restoration of crippling sanctions.

In a region where violent conflict has killed hundreds of thousands of people, the brutal slaying of one Saudi writer, Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, by Saudi agents has been one of the most significant events of 2018. The killing, for which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was widely held responsible – forced a reckoning of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen’s civil war and a review of the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

Here’s a look at the Middle East as it heads into 2019.

Conflicts winding down 

Yemen’s government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, made some progress with the Iran-linked Houthi rebels toward a U.N.-sponsored peace deal last week, a first after four years of fighting killed at least 60,000 people and pushed the country to the brink of famine. A new round of talks is set for January, with expectations that U.S. pressure on Gulf Arab allies could lead to further de-escalation.

In Syria, President Bashar Assad, aided by Russia and Iran, crushed a seven-year-old rebellion and the opposition’s dream of ousting him from power. The war is not over, with major fighting still ahead in the rebel-held north. Assad’s inner circle and allied entrepreneurs stand to make a fortune from reconstruction, even if the West won’t contribute in the absence of a political settlement.

In Iraq, it’s been a year since the government declared victory over the Islamic State group, but challenges remain, including the rebuilding of devastated cities. Rioting against corruption and poor services in the oil-rich southern region of Basra signaled the urgency of addressing Iraq’s economic problems.

In Libya, rival governments in the east and west have agreed to meet at a national conference in early 2019 to pave the way for a general election. Oil production remains below its pre-2011 levels, and lack of security still prevents major foreign investment or economic growth.

Economic troubles ahead 

In Iran, hit hard by renewed U.S. sanctions, the currency wildly fluctuated, but the Islamic Republic did not see the same extensive protests that opened the year.

While the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal ended billion-dollar deals for airplane and car manufacturers, the United States allowed many countries to continue importing Iranian oil for now. That led oil prices to plummet, straining the petrodollar economies of Gulf nations.

The boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates appeared no closer to ending, especially with a last-minute surprise by Doha of pulling Qatar from the Saudi-dominated OPEC oil cartel.

In Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country with 100 million people, job creation lags far behind an explosive population growth of more than 2 million per year. Investor confidence is improving, but inflation surpassed targets set by the International Monetary Fund.

In politically paralyzed Lebanon, decades of mismanagement and corruption are finally catching up, with a debt of $84 billion heightening concerns of impending economic collapse.

“I wonder what will happen with the rising sense of hopelessness among broad populations,” said Jon Alterman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Will people just put their heads down and be miserable? Or will a sense that there is no public outlet, no media outlet, lead to some sort of explosion, even if it’s not specifically directed toward change?”

The destructive fallout from Arab Spring uprisings could serve as a deterrent to some.

Israeli-Palestinian conflict 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started the year with a gift from Trump, who recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and then moved the U.S. Embassy to the city in May. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas froze ties with the U.S. administration, accusing it of pro-Israel bias concerning the most sensitive issue of the conflict, which sputtered along in 2018.

Israel kept building settlements in the West Bank, the Islamist Hamas has directed weekly riots along the border fence and fired hundreds of rockets and mortars at Israeli communities adjacent to Gaza, burning tens of thousands of acres of Israeli farmland, national parks and nature preserves, and forested land, and lone Palestinian assailants carried out sporadic terrorist attacks against Israelis. Dozens were killed in 2018, including a newborn Israeli infant who had to be delivered early in an emergency C-section after his mother was targeted by a Palestinian gunman outside the settlement of Ofra.

A U.S. peace plan, promised by Trump since the beginning of his term, has not yet been unveiled. Abbas, who fears any proposal will at best offer a Palestinian mini-state in Gaza, with a small footprint in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, is likely pleased with the long-time delay in the presentation of the peace plan.

With Israeli elections to be held sometime in 2019, a peace plan that calls for even minimal concessions could tear apart Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. He might not get to run for re-election if a pair of corruption cases moves forward, after police recommended chargesagainst him.

U.S. policy

The Trump administration’s staunch support for Saudi Arabia is expected to continue despite the Khashoggi scandal, in part because the alliance with Riyadh serves as a means of pressuring Iran.

However, Washington lacks a clear Syria policy. Trump has wavered on whether he wants troops to stay in Syria, with what goal, and appears content to cede ground to the Russians.

In Afghanistan, the administration appointed a special envoy to negotiate a peaceful exit from America’s longest war, but no clear pathway has emerged. Successive presidents have sought to wind down Washington’s presence in Afghanistan, to no avail.

A public opinion poll shows that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas would lose to the leader of the Islamist Hamas if Palestinian elections were held today.

The survey, conducted by prominent pollster Khalil Shikaki and released Tuesday, shows that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would win with 49% of the vote to Abbas’ 42%.

Against the backdrop of weekly Palestinian riots near the Gaza border with Israel, Shikaki attributes the results of the poll to Hamas’ perceived victory in its latest confrontation with Israel, coupled with the Palestinians’ dissatisfaction with Abbas’ government, particularly over a new social security law.

The social security measure was enacted on Nov. 1 and has been the subject of popular protests. Many Palestinians feel that it is skewed in favor of the wealthy, as payments are only mandatory for lower-earning employees. Critics of the measure cannot agree whether it should be entirely reversed or modified.

The poll interviewed 1,200 people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and had a 3% margin of error.

Abbas’ Fatah faction and Hamas are bitter rivals. Palestinian elections were last held in 2006 and have been repeatedly delayed since.

For the first time since over five decades, the Senate is poised to consider a resolution calling on the U.S. government to recognize Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights. The draft resolution was introduced by pro-Israel Republican Sens. Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton on Tuesday.

Israel captured parts of the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War. The area, which was officially annexed by Israel, includes the strategically important Mount Hermon.

The draft resolution notes that “until 1967, Syria controlled the Golan Heights and used the topographical advantage it provided to attack Israeli troops and civilians.” It also stressed that the area must continue to stay under Israeli control, as it has proved its vital necessity to the Jewish state. “In October 1973, the Golan Heights provided Israel with critical strategic depth to repel a surprise attack by Syrian forces,” it notes, referring to the Yom Kippur War.

It further stresses that the “Golan Heights is critical to Israel’s national security” and that “it is in the United States’ national security interest to ensure Israel’s security.”

Cruz and Cotton will officially table the motion in 2019. The two issued the following statement on Monday: “Israel’s northern border is threatened by Iranian forces and their proxies in Lebanon and Syria, including Hezbollah’s 150,000 rockets, armed drones, newly discovered terror tunnels and more. Meanwhile, with the [Iranian] ayatollahs’ help, [Syrian President] Bashar Assad’s regime is on the verge of securing victory in Syria’s civil war. He may soon turn his attention back to threatening the Jewish state.” Cruz and Cotton added: “Israel gained possession over the Golan Heights in a defensive war over 50 years ago and has responsibly controlled the area ever since. It’s past time for the United States to recognize reality by affirming Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.”

The resolution, if passed, will only have a symbolic meaning because it is not a bill and because the U.S. Supreme Court has already ruled that only the executive branch can decide on U.S. policy when it comes to recognizing the sovereignty of other countries.

Officials in the Trump administration have indicated in recent months that they were open to an official U.S. recognition of the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory.  U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman told Israel Hayom in September that he “can’t imagine a circumstance where the Golan Heights will be returned to Syria.” He added: “I can’t think of a less deserving person to receive this kind of reward than [Syrian President] Bashar Assad.”

A contingent of IDF forces including trackers and engineers were sent to the city of Sderot in the western Negev on Tuesday evening after residents reported hearing noises of underground digging.

Similar reports have arrived in the past 10 days, all of which were investigated by the IDF.

In the past few months, the military has been constructing a barrier to block off the Gaza border both above and below ground. One of the purposes of the barrier is to prevent terrorists from digging tunnels under the border into Israel.

The barrier includes advanced sensors underground and a 6-meter (20-foot) fence above ground, similar to the one ‎‎along the Israeli-Egyptian border, and is being constructed at an estimated cost of NIS 3 ‎billion ‎‎($830 million).‎

The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said Tuesday evening that “thus far, there is no evidence of tunnels being dug in the area. The IDF will continue to thoroughly investigate any report that arrives.”

In October, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in response to the discovery of a Hamas tunnel that the IDF was “systematically crippling Hamas’ terror tunnel capabilities. … We are sparing no effort and are determined to maintain Israel’s security.”

Over the course of 2018, Israel has discovered and destroyed at least 15 tunnels leading into Israel from Gaza that were linked to Hamas’ vast network of underground passageways.

Israel has arrested over 130 suspects in its search for the gunman behind a shooting attack at the Givat Asaf outpost last Thursday, which killed IDF Staff Sgt. Yovel Mor Yosef and Sgt. Yosef Cohen and wounded two other Israelis, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told soldiers who served with Mor Yosef and Cohen during a visit to Givat Asaf on Tuesday.

“Over the weekend there were 100 arrests and yesterday [Monday] there were 36. It’s a matter of time until we find the murderer, like we found the others, and hold him accountable like we did the others. Palestinian terrorism will not move us from this place, the heart of our homeland,” Netanyahu told troops in the Netzah Yehuda Battalion.

“One of your comrades is fighting for his life and we are all praying for him. There have also been achievements,” he told the soldiers.

“We are full of appreciation for your activity and are absolutely certain of our ability to carry out the main mission.

“The main mission is, first of all, to strike at terrorism, to maintain the security of the state and the settlers, and – to the extent possible – maintain quiet in the area, also with the Palestinian residents,” Netanyahu told them.

The prime minister said that effective operations began and ended with professionalism and a readiness to step into the breach. “This is why you are here,” he said.

During the visit, GOC Central Command Maj. Gen. Nadav Padan and Brig. Gen. Eran Niv, the commander of the Judea Samaria Brigade, gave Netanyahu a military briefing and reviewed the events of the Givat Asaf shooting.

Head of the Beit El Regional Council Shay Alon accompanied the prime minister to Givat Asaf. Netanyahu and Alon recited psalms at the makeshift memorial that has been erected there. Alon also asked Netanyahu to keep the checkpoint near Beit El closed, explaining that terrorists behind recent attacks have escaped through it.

Outgoing U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Tuesday that an American plan to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians brings “brings new elements to the discussion, taking advantage of the new world of technology that we live in.”

She hinted that the plan will include many features that will please both sides and some that they won’t like.

Speaking at a U.N. Security Council meeting on the Middle East, Haley gave no details of exactly what would be included in the long-awaited, yet unpublished plan, which has been prepared by U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and top adviser Jared Kushner.

“It is much longer. It contains much more thoughtful detail,” Haley told the council of the plan, which she said she has read.

She added that “it recognizes that realities on the ground in the Middle East have changed in powerful and important ways,” which may suggest that the plan will be favorable to the continued Jewish presence in Judea and Samaria.

In 2004, President George W. Bush used similar terminology, saying that “in light of new realities on the ground” it was “unrealistic” that Israel would have to fully withdraw to the borders that existed before the 1967 Six-Day War.

The Palestinians are skeptical and have accused the Trump administration of siding with Israel on the core issues relating to the decades-old conflict. They have refused to participate in the U.S. effort since December 2017, when Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocated the U.S. embassy there.

But Haley told the U.N. Security Council that “both sides would benefit greatly from a peace agreement, but the Palestinians would benefit more, and the Israelis would risk more.”

“The Palestinians have everything to gain by engaging in peace negotiations,” Haley said. “This plan will be different from all previous ones. The critical question is whether the response to it will be any different.”

She also accused Arab countries of not making the Palestinian people a priority: “Because if they were, you would all be in a room helping bring both sides to the table.”

Haley, who is stepping down at the end of the month, said moving forward to negotiations and peace “will need leaders with real vision to do it.” She declared: “The world will be watching.”

Immediately preceding the meeting, eight European Union members stood outside the Security Council chamber and read a joint statement emphasizing the EU’s “strong and continued commitment” to the internationally agreed requirements for Israeli-Palestinian peace – an apparent message to the Trump administration.

“The EU is truly convinced that the achievement of a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders with Jerusalem as the capital of both states, that meets Israeli and Palestinian security needs, and Palestinian aspirations for statehood and sovereignty, ends the occupation and resolves all final status issues … is the only viable and realistic way to end the conflict and achieve just and lasting peace,” the statement said.

Haley made no mention of any of these issues in her last speech at the council’s monthly Mideast meeting, stressing instead the “unshakable bond” between the United States and Israel, which she has reflected in her nearly two years as U.S. ambassador.

“Given my record, some might mistakenly conclude that I am unsympathetic to the Palestinian people,” she said. “Nothing could be further from the truth.”

Haley said neither Israelis nor Palestinians should make peace at “any price” but she highlighted the differences between the two sides. “Israel wants a peace agreement but it does not need one,” she said.

On the other hand, Haley said, the Palestinian people “are suffering terribly, while their leadership clings to 50-year-old demands that have only become less and less realistic,” and a peace agreement holds the prospects “of a massive improvement in the quality of their lives and far greater control over their political future.”

She said “it is with this backdrop in mind that the Trump administration has crafted its plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians.”

Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon said late last month that U.S. officials have told Israel’s government they expect to release the long-awaited Israeli-Palestinian peace plan in the beginning of 2019.

Trump has dubbed the plan  the “Deal of the Century.”

Nickolay Mladenov, the U.N. Middle East envoy, told the council he “remains concerned by the weakening of international consensus and the absence of collective efforts to achieve an end to the occupation and the realization of a negotiated two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

“At the end of 2018, we are nowhere closer to reviving efforts for a negotiated solution,” he said. “Without a political horizon, all our collective and individual efforts merely contribute to managing the conflict rather than resolving it.”

Some two weeks after Israel launched Operation Northern Shield to eliminate Hezbollah’s cross-border attack tunnels from Lebanon, Israel has said it will present the U.N. Security Council with damning evidence proving that the Lebanese army has been helping Hezbollah in its excavation efforts in violation of the U.N.’s resolutions.

The council was set to meet on Wednesday, days after the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon concluded that the tunnels snaking under the Israel-Lebanon border and jutting into Israeli territory were a violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

The resolution, which ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War between Israel and Hezbollah, prohibits the presence of any Lebanese armed group south of the Litani River, apart from the central government’s military, known as the Lebanese Armed Forces.

On Tuesday, Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said that “now that UNIFIL has confirmed that the Hezbollah tunnels are a severe breach of Resolution 1701, the Security Council is duty-bound to use every means at its disposal against Hezbollah, which continues its buildup under the auspices of the Lebanese government.”

Danon plans to emphasize that Lebanese troops have given their tacit approval and turned a blind eye to Hezbollah’s tunneling activity, effectively sanctioning it.

Danon will present what he calls “clear-cut intelligence evidence” that prove that the LAF and Hezbollah are coordinating their activity and allowing the terrorist group to undermine Israel’s efforts to tackle these tunnels.

Danon will also unveil new information demonstrating Hezbollah’s violations of Resolution 1701.

“There is a clear line of communication between LAF elements and the terrorist organization; those elements help Hezbollah destabilize the region,” Danon said on Tuesday. “Under the Lebanese government’s watch, Hezbollah has created an entire network of tunnels and factories for precision-guided missiles; this is a brazen violation of the U.N. Security Council resolution but also endangers the lives of the residents of southern Lebanon, who are being used as human shields.”

Danon vowed that “Israel will act with force against Hezbollah and any other entity that tries to undermine its sovereignty.”

According to Danon, “The 2006 resolution has already said, loud and clear, that Hezbollah must not continue its terrorist activity against Israel, but this has not stopped the organization from staying the course, and now it is trying to breach into Israeli territory using terror tunnels. Reality on the ground has shown that Hezbollah could not care less about what the Security Council has to say.”

Israeli officials have repeatedly said that if Hezbollah attacks Israel, the Israeli government would hold the Lebanese government accountable.

According to a report in the Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar on Tuesday, Israel asked the U.S. to pressure the Lebanese government to ensure that it cooperates with UNIFIL and helps locate and destroy the cross-border tunnels.

IDF officials noted that Hezbollah has been trying to block access to the the tunnels in recent days. IDF officials dismissed a Lebanese media report that the LAF forced the Israeli military to halt its efforts to expose tunnels in certain areas near the border. “The operation continues in several locations, both overtly and covertly,” the IDF said.