Archive for September 26, 2018

Erdogan vows Turkey to continue buying Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions 

September 26, 2018

Source: Erdogan vows Turkey to continue buying Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions – General Assembly – Jerusalem Post

Erdogan said Turkey will continue to buy natural gas from Iran in line with its long-term supply contract despite Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with Iran.

BY REUTERS
 SEPTEMBER 26, 2018 10:58
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses the 73rd session of the United Nations General Ass

NEW YORK – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will continue to buy natural gas from Iran in line with its long-term supply contract despite Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with Iran.

“We need to be realistic… Am I supposed to let people freeze in winter? … Nobody should be offended. How can I heat my people’s homes if we stop purchasing Iran’s natural gas?” he said.

Trump pulled the United States out of a 2015 multinational nuclear deal with Iran and in August Washington reimposed sanctions on Tehran, lifted in 2016 under the pact. US sanctions on Iran’s energy sector are set to be re-imposed in November.

In an effort to boost the economy and attract investors, Erdogan will travel on September 28 to Germany, a country that is home to millions of Turks.

“We want to completely leave behind all the problems and to create a warm environment between Turkey and Germany just like it used to be,” Erdogan said, adding that he will meet Chancellor Angela Merkel during his visit.

Erdogan also said it was impossible for Syrian peace efforts to continue with President Bashar Assad in power.

Earlier this month, Turkey and Russia reached an agreement to enforce a new demilitarized zone in Syria’s Idlib region from which “radical” rebels will be required to withdraw by the middle of next month.

But Erdogan said the withdrawal of “radical groups” had already started.

“This part of Syria will be free of weapons which is the expectation of the people of Idlib… who welcomed this step,” he said. The demilitarized zone will be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces.

Close to 3 million people live in Idlib, around half of them displaced by the war from other parts of Syria.

The two NATO members have differed over Turkey’s crackdown on suspected opponents of Erdogan after a failed coup in 2016 and over its detention of German citizens.

Trump says upcoming sanctions on Iran ‘tougher than ever before’ 

September 26, 2018

Source: Trump says upcoming sanctions on Iran ‘tougher than ever before’ – International news – Jerusalem Post

“The United States will pursue additional sanctions tougher than ever before to counter the full range of Iran’s malign conduct,” Trump told the council.

BY MICHAEL WILNER
 SEPTEMBER 26, 2018 17:28
US President Donald Trump, representing the United States as current President of the United Nations

NEW YORK — US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Wednesday that his administration will soon go beyond previous sanctions regimes by imposing the “toughest” financial penalties ever designed.

Chairing a session of the UN Security Council on nonproliferation in New York, the president continued his rhetorical broadside of the Islamic Republic for a second day after undressing Tehran the day before in a speech to the General Assembly.

“The Iranian regime exports violence, terror and turmoil. It illicitly procures sensitive items to advance its ballistic missile program,” Trump said, calling on international partners to pressure Iran to end its missile work. The president once again criticized a nuclear deal with Iran endorsed by the council three years ago as a “horrible, one-sided deal allowed Iran to continue its path to a bomb and gave Iran a financial lifeline when they needed it the most.”

Trump withdrew the US from the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, back in May, freeing his administration to reimpose nuclear-related sanctions on Iran that had been lifted by the deal. Those sanctions were once considered the toughest of their kind and targeted Iran’s oil and gas sector, its access to the dollar, to automobiles and aviation parts and its ability to conduct foreign transactions.

But Trump said his team is preparing additional sanctions on top of those.

“The United States will pursue additional sanctions tougher than ever before to counter the full range of Iran’s malign conduct,” he told the council, warning companies of “severe consequences” if they fail to comply.

Other permanent Security Council members – France, Britain, Russia and China – criticized the administration for pulling out of the agreement and seeking to reimpose sanctions on their companies conducting business in Iran that was encouraged by the agreement.

The 2015 deal traded sanctions relief on Iran in exchange for caps on Iran’s nuclear work that fade out over time. Trump criticized the deal for failing to permanently end Iran’s nuclear ambitions and for providing Iran with money at a critical time.

“They needed cash,” he said. “We gave it to them.”

The president’s national security team has focused their attention on Iran in recent days, offering speeches and publishing explanatory papers on Iran’s “destructive activities” to coincide with UN week in New York.

Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, responded in several media interviews and in his own General Assembly with derision, characterizing the US under Trump as “authoritarian” and with a “Nazi disposition.”

He questioned why Trump would seek a meeting with him while, in his words, seeking to overthrow him at the same time. The Trump administration denies it is working toward regime change in Tehran.

 

Netanyahu responds to Trump: Will Palestine be Costa Rica or Iran? 

September 26, 2018

Source: Netanyahu responds to Trump: Will Palestine be Costa Rica or Iran? – International news – Jerusalem Post

I told the president that what is important is that the Palestinians won’t be able to threaten us, and for that reason there must be complete Israeli security control.”

BY JERUSALEM POST STAFF
 SEPTEMBER 26, 2018 19:16
Netanyahu Trump

Speaking with reporters Wednesday after his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he does not know the timeline of the publication of Trump’s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan.

“I am not in charge of the time-line of the United States,” Netanyahu said. “They will publish the plan when they decide to do so. I presume that they are also discussing it with Arab states.”

Speaking to reporters before his meeting with Netanyahu, Trump backed a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“I think that’s what works best,” Trump told the prime minister, repeating his support several times.

The president had previously equivocated on the two-state solution, which has long been the preferred end state for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His Middle East peace team, which was present, has yet to use the term in public or in private to describe the framework of their plan.

That plan, Trump said, should be ready in “two to three to four months.”

In his remarks to reporters, Netanyahu said that he was not surprised at Trump’s statement in support of the two-state solution. “I told the president that what is important is that the Palestinians won’t be able to threaten us, and for that reason there must be complete Israeli security control.”

Netanyahu also said that he had discussed Russia’s pledge to supply Syria with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles with the president.

“I received everything that I asked for regarding the recent events vis a vis Russia,” Netanyahu said. “The President immediately gave detailed directions to his advisors. I am very pleased with the meeting, and received his unmitigated support for Israel.”

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday that Moscow will supply an S-300 anti-missile system to Syria within two weeks. The announcement came a week after the ministry accused Israel of indirectly causing the downing of a Russian military plane in Syria that killed 15 servicemen.

During his address to the Security Council earlier in the day, Trump warned Iran on Wednesday that his administration will soon go beyond previous sanctions regimes by imposing the “toughest” financial penalties ever designed.

“The Iranian regime exports violence, terror and turmoil. It illicitly procures sensitive items to advance its ballistic missile program,” Trump said, calling on international partners to pressure Iran to end its missile work. The president once again criticized a nuclear deal with Iran endorsed by the council three years ago as a “horrible, one-sided deal allowed Iran to continue its path to a bomb and gave Iran a financial lifeline when they needed it the most.”

Michael Wilner contributed to this report.

 

Bartering – An Act of Desperation

September 26, 2018

“Special Purpose Vehicle aims to keep Iran in 2015 nuclear deal with barter system


Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov with EU external affairs chief Federica Mogherini in New York on Tuesday. Photograph: Alexander Shcherbak/TASS

By Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor Wed 26 Sep 2018 01.00 EDT The Guardian

Source Link: EU, China and Russia in move to sidestep US sanctions on Iran

{What’s next, wampum? – LS}

The European Union, Iran, China and Russia have set out a plan to sidestep unilateral US sanctions designed to cripple the Iranian economy and force the Iranians to renegotiate the nuclear deal signed in 2015.

European diplomats hope the proposed measure – known as a special purpose vehicle (SPV) – will help persuade an increasingly reluctant Iran to stay inside the deal in the hope of rescuing its economy.

Speaking on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York, Federica Mogherini, the EU external affairs chief, said the SPV was designed to facilitate payments related to Iran’s exports – including oil – and imports, so long as the firms involved were carrying out legitimate business under EU law.

The aim is to make the SPV available not just to EU firms but to others, she added.

In his address to the United Nations general assembly, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, stressed Tehran’s continued commitment to the deal and accused the US of pressurising other countries into violating the nuclear agreement.

“Confronting multilateralism is not a sign of strength,” he said. “Rather, it is a symptom of the weakness of intellect. It betrays an inability in understanding a complex and interconnected world.”

But the US president Donald Trump’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, addressing an anti-Iran pressure group, said he was “disturbed and indeed deeply disappointed” by the EU plan.

“This is one of the of the most counterproductive measures imaginable for regional and global peace and security,” Pompeo said.

Versions of the SPV floated by thinktanks suggest it could underpin a sophisticated barter system that can avoid US Treasury sanctions. For example, Iran could ship crude oil to a French firm, accumulating credit that could then be used to pay an Italian manufacturer for goods shipped the other way, without any funds traversing through Iranian hands or the banking system.

A multinational European state-backed financial intermediary would be set up to handle deals with companies interested in Iran transactions and with Iranian counter-parties. Any transactions would not be transparent to the US, and involve euros and sterling rather than dollars.

The proposal is additional to a blocking statute passed by the EU in August that theoretically makes EU companies immune from sanctions imposed by the US in pursuit of its Iran policy. In theory, the statute empowers EU firms to seek compensation from US Treasury for trying to impose extra-territorial sanctions in breach of the statute. So far this statute has not been tested in court.

Richard Nephew, a former Barack Obama official and author of The Art of Sanctions, expressed scepticism on Twitter, saying that for the SPV to be taken up, European firms – many with either US employees, or US subsidiaries – must still be prepared to take the risk of being sanctioned by the US.

He also suggested US sanctions could be applied to the traded good as much as to the cash to fund the trade. He predicted few firms would take that risk, outside some SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] heavily dependent on Iran for their income.

Jarrett Blanc, another former Obama staffer for the Iran deal, broadly agreed with Nephew, but was more sympathetic, writing that “the symbolism here is probably Europe’s most important contribution, and it may be sufficient depending on what China, India, Turkey do on oil”. He added: “The payment mechanism move opens the door to a longer-term degradation of US sanctions power.”

Either way, Europe needs a solution soon after months of railing against US economic imperialism. The vast majority of European firms are planning to pull out.

Trump announced two sets of US secondary sanctions in May, and other sanctions imposed in August cover shipping and insurance. The other more important sanctions – aimed at ending Iranian oil exports, still the heart of the faltering Iranian economy – do not bite until 5 November.

In advance of the oil sanctions, Iran’s crude sales to China fell 21% between May and August, according to Eurasia Group. But it is unclear how long China will stick to that trend.

The assumption is that many countries like India and Russia will continue to trade with Iran and challenge the US to try to impose sanctions, pointing out that in reality it is the US, by tearing up the agreement and not them, that is in breach of UN resolutions.

Trump says ‘two-state solution works best’

September 26, 2018

Source: Trump says ‘two-state solution works best’

In meeting on sidelines of UN General Assembly between Netanyahu and Trump, US president states publicly for first time that he ‘likes the two-state solution’, says it’s his drream to strike peace deal before end of his first term.

The remarks, which were made during a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, shed light on the possible basis of a long-awaited peace initiative to be launched by the US administration between Israel and the Palestinians.

“I like a two state solution. That’s what I think works best … That’s my feeling,” said Trump.

Trump also said he wanted to unveil a peace plan in the next two to three months.

“It is a dream of mine to get that done prior to the end of my first term,” Trump said.

Concluding his opening statement, Trump said “We are with you. We are with Israel 100%.”

Netanyahu has said that any future Palestinian state must be demilitarized and must recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people.

“I really believe something will happen. They say it’s the toughest of all deals,” Trump said.

He added that Israel will have to do something good for the other side without elaborating.

Trump gave his endorsement of the two-state solution moments after Netanyahu praised the American-Israeli alliance as never being stronger “under your leadership.”

President Trump and PM Netanyahu (Photo: Reuters)

President Trump and PM Netanyahu (Photo: Reuters)

“I want to thank you for the extraordinary support that you have shown for Israel in this building in the UN. No one has backed Israel like you do and we appreciate it,” Netanyahu told the president in his opening remarks.

“This it the first that time we after the American Embassy has been moved to Jerusalem,” he added. “You’ve changed history and you’ve touched our hearts.”

Trump’s statement also comes in stark contrast to the response given to whether he supports the two-state solution during a meeting between the two leader in Washington in February 2017 during which he avoided explicitly backing the idea.

“I’m looking at two-state and one-state and I like the one that both parties like. I’m very happy with the one that both parties like,” he said at the time.

Doubts have mounted over whether Trump’s administration can secure what he has called the “ultimate deal” since December, when the US president recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and then moved the US Embassy there.

“It is a dream of mine to get that done prior to the end of my first term,” Trump said of an agreement on the conflict.

Jerusalem is one of the major issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Both sides claim it as a capital. Trump’s move outraged the Palestinians, who have since boycotted Washington’s peace efforts, led by Trump’s son-in-law and advisor, Jared Kushner.

Reuters contributed to this report.

 

Netanyahu: Israel, Russia will continue close defense coordination 

September 26, 2018

Source: Netanyahu: Israel, Russia will continue close defense coordination – Israel Hayom

 

Mossad head flies to US with Netanyahu to discuss Russia crisis

September 26, 2018

Source: Mossad head flies to US with Netanyahu to discuss Russia crisis | The Times of Israel

After 3-hour meeting, ministers tell IDF to keep working to prevent Iran deepening presence in Syria; PM said to tell cabinet to stay silent, after Moscow vows to give Syria S-300s

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Head of the Mossad Yossi Cohen during a toast for the Jewish New Year on October 02, 2017. (Haim Zach/GPO)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Head of the Mossad Yossi Cohen during a toast for the Jewish New Year on October 02, 2017. (Haim Zach/GPO)

Mossad head Yossi Cohen is flying Tuesday to the US with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the crisis in ties with Russia, in the aftermath of last week’s downing of a Russian plane by Syrian anti-aircraft fire during an Israeli airstrike.

Army Radio said that Cohen was headed to Washington to meet with senior US officials about Russia’s decision to send S-300 advanced surface-to-air missiles within two weeks to Syria, which both Jerusalem and Washington have warned would further destabilize the region and increase already high tensions.

The Kan national broadcaster, meanwhile, claimed Cohen would join Netanyahu in New York and discuss Iran’s involvement in the Middle East with a number of officials from other countries on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

The reports of Cohen’s trip followed an almost three-hour meeting of the security cabinet Tuesday during which Netanyahu warned ministers to remain silent on the Russian affair, Hadashot news reported.

A statement after the meeting said the Security Cabinet “instructed the IDF to continue to take action against attempts by Iran to establish a military presence in Syria while continuing the security coordination with Russia.” It said ministers “share in the sorrow of the families in Russia and of the Russian people over the loss of the Russian air crew members as a result of the irresponsible action of the Syrian military.”

In this file photo taken on Saturday, March 4, 2017, the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 electronic intelligence plane of the Russian air force with the registration number RF 93610, which was accidentally downed by Syrian forces responding to an Israeli air strike, flies near Kubinka airport, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP Photo/Marina Lystseva)

Following the meeting, Netanyahu left for New York for the UN General Assembly, where he will give a speech and also meet with US President Donald Trump.

Russia blamed Israeli actions for the downing, by Syrian anti-aircraft fire, of the plane, in which all 15 Russian serviceman aboard were killed. The Israel Defense Forces has maintained the plane was shot down due to indiscriminate Syrian fire and vowed to continue targeting Iranian weapons shipments in Syria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had informed Netanyahu of the decision to provide Syria with the S-300 system in a phone call Sunday.

In response, according to a statement by Netanyahu’s office, “The prime minister said providing advanced weapons systems to irresponsible actors will magnify dangers in the region, and that Israel will continue to defend itself and its interests.”

In his call with Netanyahu, Putin said he disagreed with the Israeli version of events concerning the downing of the Russian plane.

“The information provided by the Israeli military… runs counter to conclusions of the Russian defense ministry,” the Kremlin said of the content of Putin’s remarks in the call, adding that the actions of the Israeli pilots had led to the plane being targeted by Syrian air defense systems.

“The Russian side proceeds from the fact that the actions by the Israeli air force were the main reason for the tragedy,” a statement said.

A before and after photo of an ammunition warehouse which was destroyed in an Israeli airstrike on a Syrian base in Latakia, September 18, 2018 (ImageSat International (ISI/Ynet)

Netanyahu’s office said Monday night that, in the call, he had “expressed his confidence in the credibility of the IDF probe and its conclusions, and stressed once again that responsibility for the unfortunate incident lay with the Syrian army that brought down the plane, and with Iran, whose aggression destabilizes [the region].”

At the same time, it said, Netanyahu had “once again expressed his condolences for the deaths of the Russia soldiers.”

The statement added that the two leaders agreed to “continue talks between professional teams and coordination between the armies through military channels.”

Agencies contributed to this report.

 

Pompeo accuses EU of ‘solidifying Iran’s ranking’ as top state sponsor of terror

September 26, 2018

Source: Pompeo accuses EU of ‘solidifying Iran’s ranking’ as top state sponsor of terror | The Times of Israel

US secretary of state blasts European states over payment plan to preserve business with Tehran and avoid renewed American sanctions

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the United Against Nuclear Iran Summit in New York on September 25, 2018. (AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGAN)

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the United Against Nuclear Iran Summit in New York on September 25, 2018. (AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGAN)

NEW YORK — US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo denounced Tuesday a European Union plan to set up a way to preserve business with Iran and avoid renewed American sanctions.

Addressing the United Against a Nuclear Iran pressure group being held near the annual UN General Assembly, Pompeo said he was “disturbed and indeed deeply disappointed” by Monday’s announcement from remaining members of an international nuclear deal.

“This is one of the most counterproductive measures imaginable for regional peace and security,” Pompeo said, accusing the European Union of “solidifying Iran’s ranking as the number-one state sponsor of terrorism.”

“I imagine the corrupt ayatollahs and IGRC were laughing this morning,” Pompeo added at the event in New York, referring to the elite Revolutionary Guards, in a speech that was interrupted several times by anti-war protesters.

President Donald Trump pulled out of an agreement negotiated under his predecessor Barack Obama for Iran to curtail its nuclear program sharply in exchange for sanctions relief.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, speaking late Monday alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, said that the agreement was in the global interest and pointed to UN inspectors’ findings that Iran is in compliance.

She said that European Union members were working on a legal entity that would allow businesses to buy oil and conduct other business with Iran in hopes of avoiding US sanctions.

 

Bolton warns Iran of ‘hell to pay’ in impassioned NY speech 

September 26, 2018

Source: Bolton warns Iran of ‘hell to pay’ in impassioned NY speech | The Times of Israel

Using unusually harsh language even for Trump administration, US national security adviser tells Tehran: ‘We are watching, and we will come after you’

US National Security Adviser John Bolton speaks at a Federalist Society luncheon at the Mayflower Hotel September 10, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP)

US National Security Adviser John Bolton speaks at a Federalist Society luncheon at the Mayflower Hotel September 10, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP)

US national security adviser John Bolton warned Iran of “hell to pay” and “serious consequences” if it defies the US, using some of the most aggressive language employed by administration officials in recent decades.

Bolton delivered the speech Tuesday in New York, hosted by an organization that opposed the 2015 nuclear deal that the Trump administration withdrew from earlier this year. The speech, which saw excerpts released before the delivery, features rhetoric that is tough even by the standards of an administration fiercely opposed to Tehran.

“According to the mullahs in Tehran, we are ‘the Great Satan,’ lord of the underworld, master of the raging inferno,” Bolton told the annual summit of United Against Nuclear Iran. “So, I might imagine they would take me seriously when I assure them today: If you cross us, our allies, or our partners; if you harm our citizens; if you continue to lie, cheat, and deceive, yes, there will indeed be hell to pay.”

“The Iran deal was the worst diplomatic debacle in American history,” he continued in the speech, which coincided with the annual UN General Assembly. “It did nothing to address the regime’s destabilizing activities or its ballistic missile development and proliferation. Worst of all, the deal failed in its fundamental objective: permanently denying Iran all paths to a nuclear bomb.

“The United States is not naive. We will not be duped, cheated, or intimidated. The days of impunity for Tehran and its enablers are over. The murderous regime and its supporters will face significant consequences if they do not change their behavior. Let my message today be clear: We are watching, and we will come after you.”

Earlier Tuesday, US President Donald Trump urged the international community to isolate Iran, during a combative address before the UN General Assembly in which he accused the Tehran regime of sowing “chaos, death, and destruction.”

US President Donald Trump addresses the 73rd session of the General Assembly at the United Nations in New York, September 25, 2018. (AFP PHOTO / Nicholas Kamm)

“We cannot allow the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism to possess the planet’s most dangerous weapons,” Trump said, citing Iran’s “threatening Israel with annihilation” and chants of “death to America.”

“We ask all nations to isolate Iran’s regime as long as its aggression continues and we ask all nations to support Iran’s people as they struggle to reclaim their religious and righteous destiny,” he added.

In May, Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with Iran, which was forged under his predecessor, Barack Obama. The administration tore into the deal for its sunset clauses that allow certain restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program to expire, its failure to prevent Iranian ballistic missile testing, and the partial access it provides for inspectors into Iran’s military sites.

Trump’s pullout from the deal was met with intense criticism from world leaders, especially those of the other countries — Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia — that brokered the accord.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani responded to Trump’s fiery speech by calling the reimposed sanctions “economic terrorism” and claiming the United States was plotting to overthrow Tehran’s regime.

“It is ironic that the US government doesn’t even conceal its plan for overthrowing the same government it invites to talks,” he said.

Eric Cortellessa contributed to this report.

 

The Russian exploitation of a good crisis

September 26, 2018

Source: The Russian exploitation of a good crisis

Analysis: Russia really had no interest in hearing the Israeli version of the Latakia offensive. Moscow’s reception of the IAF commander to explain Israel’s version was merely a facade. For Russia, Israel’s culpability was a foregone conclusion, but what it really wanted was more information on how Israel’s intel works and to alter agreements regarding Israel’s freedom to act in Syrian skies.

It turns out that the visit by an IDF delegation to Moscow to protest Israel’s innocence and to thaw the icy standoff that has developed since has only served to frost relations further and underscore the disparity in the versions that have surfaced between the two sides.

Netanyahu (L) and Putin  (Photo: EPA)

Netanyahu (L) and Putin (Photo: EPA)

In the briefings that were given to Russian media by President Vladimir Putin’s representatives, the Israeli version was presented as nothing more than fallacious. The Israeli investigation appears not to have interested the Russians, and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s gesture of sending the IAF commander to Moscow left no impression on them. From the Russian point of view, this was purely a perfunctory facade. What they were really interested in was how Israel’s IAF intelligence works.

The Russian newspaper “Komsomolskaya Pravda” which has close ties with the Russian Defense Ministry and with the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described on Thursday the meeting between the IAF chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin and his Russian counterpart as cold, difficult, stern and without smiles. The paper said that the Russians had demanded that Israel, before anything else, recognize that its actions had brought about a tragedy and that “the blame lies with the Israelis. That is our basic position.”

“We made clear to Norkin that our facts contradict theirs, and conclusions such as those reached by the Israelis may have been invented,” he said.

IAF delegation in Russia (Photo: IDF Spokesmans Unit)

IAF delegation in Russia (Photo: IDF Spokesmans Unit)

It is important to note that in Russia there are no leaks about sensitive security meetings such as this one. Therefore, Israel concluded that the report was no coincidence and it comes directly from Putin’s spokesman or another senior official in the Kremlin. Either way, the article described the Israelis as people shuffling around uncomfortably in their chairs, as people who avoided answering technical questions and who tried to speak about Iranian responsibility for the incident and Assad’s culpability.

The paper also said that Norkin’s Russian counterpart asked during the meeting: “What did you do in the airspace?” According to them, Norkin admitted that Israel did not look into the presence of Russian aircraft in the area during the attack.The Russian message to Israel is a political and unequivocal one: They do not want Israel to continue flying and launching strikes in Syria and certainly not in the current state of affairs. The downing of the plane is an opportunity for the Russians to change the current understanding with Israel regarding the IAF’s freedom to operate in Syria. Israel now face a dramatic decision on the depth of the crisis and how far it is willing to take it with the Russians. At the moment, the crisis seems insolvable.

Russian-Israeli meeting  (Photo: IDF Spokesmans Unit)

Russian-Israeli meeting (Photo: IDF Spokesmans Unit)

In the Israeli security establishment, officials have repeatedly emphasized that Israel will not be compromising on its military efforts to remove the Iranian military presence from Syria and prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah.The message being conveyed from Moscow is that the Kremlin does not encourage visits to Russia by Israeli officials in an effort to bridge the diplomatic rift that has developed. Nor does it support visits by Russian officials to Israel over the matter.

Israel is convinced that it acted in accordance with the agreements reached with Russia and that everything that took place stemmed from a lack of professionalism demonstrated by the Syrians who shot down the plane. Moreover, the Israelis are convinced that the fact that they have hitherto refrained from hitting Syrian and Iranian targets along the Syrian coast has brought about a situation in which the Iranians believe they can establish military facilities in the area under the umbrella of Russian air defenses. Thus, Israel will continue to do everything in order to expunge the Iranian presence from the area.

Nevertheless, beyond the declarations and policies, in the coming days Israel will need to make decisions on the continuation of operations above Syrian territory and on relations with the Russians. Israel believes that time will run its course and the mutual interest in preserving healthy relations will ultimately prevail over the crisis.

The next Israeli strike in Syria will therefore be a test for both sides. It is possible to assume that if and when Israel chooses to strike a target, it will do everything in its abilities to ensure early and thorough coordination with the Russians, even if it comes at the expense of security information, lest it awaken an even angrier Russian bear.