WarSclerotic

Despite John McCain and the neocon’s best efforts to disrupt it, his advisors (and the Democrats) warnings, and the rest of the Deep State’s concerted plans with the liberal media to paint Trump into a lose-lose situation, the Trump-Putin Summit in Helsinki is due to start within the next hour or two.

As President Trump noted in a tweet earlier, “Unfortunately, no matter how well I do at the Summit, I would return to criticism that it wasn’t good enough.”

As The Hill notes, Trump has long wanted a closer relationship with Putin, something he believes can mend frayed ties between their two countries. But beyond his apparent affinity for Putin, many in Washington have questioned why the president is sitting down with his Russian counterpart and what he seeks to accomplish.

Here are five things to watch for when Trump and Putin meet in Helsinki:

Election interference

Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, already at the front of observers’ minds, has rocketed to the top of the agenda ahead of Monday’s summit. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein announced Friday the indictment of 12 Russian intelligence officers who allegedly hacked into the Democratic National Committee and other Democratic groups. The announcement comes just days before the Helsinki summit, ramping up pressure on Trump to raise the issue with Putin. But the president has long wavered on the matter, despite the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that Russia interfered in the election. Just last month, Trump tweeted that “Russia continues to say they had nothing to do with Meddling in our Election!”

Trump has repeatedly highlighted that denial — which Putin made during their first face-to-face meeting at last year’s group of Group of 20 summit — as a way of downplaying the issue. “President Trump is now the outlier in his own administration, seemingly,” said a former Trump transition official. The president has promised multiple times to press Putin on election interference, saying Friday he would “absolutely firmly ask the question” when they meet. Trump has expressed a belief, however, there is not much he can do to deter their activity. “I don’t think you’ll have any ‘Gee, I did it, I did it, you got me.’ There won’t be a Perry Mason here,” Trump said at a press conference with British Prime Minister Theresa May.

National security figures with ties to the White House hope Trump publicly warns Putin against interfering in the midterms and threatens the Russian leader with consequences.

But the worst-case scenario they fear is Trump remaining silent on the issue and raising the possibility of lifting sanctions on Moscow, something that would fuel criticism from political opponents who believe he is too close to Putin.

Democrats in Congress have called on Trump to cancel the summit entirely in response to the indictment, but there is no sign Trump is interested in doing so.

Syria

Trump has reportedly been eying a deal with Putin in Syria that is aimed at moving Iranian forces away from the border with Israel in exchange for withdrawing U.S. troops. But both U.S. and Russian officials have been reluctant to give ground on thorny issues such as troop levels or territory, and experts are not optimistic a deal will be made in Helsinki. “To me, this whole issue of expecting the Russians or hoping the Russians are going to deliver Iranian concessions in Syria is the triumph of blind hope over grim analysis,” said Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria under former President Obama.

Under the terms of a possible deal, Russia would promise to limit Iranian presence near Syria’s border with Israel and Jordan and, in turn, the U.S. would allow Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces to take control of the area. U.S. forces have an outpost in southern Syria near the border with Jordan and Iraq known as al Tanf, which Pentagon officials have said is key to ensuring Iran does not complete the Tehran-to-Beirut land bridge it desires. But under the reported deal, U.S. forces would leave al Tanf — and eventually Syria — altogether. Experts have warned Trump not to repeat the mistakes of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, when he did not come away with an ironclad plan for denuclearization.

“If he buys a vague promise, then it looks like the Singapore summit where he gets some nice words without details from the other side of the summit table,” said Ford.

Crimea

Crimea has been at the heart of U.S.-Russia tensions since 2014. That’s when Russia annexed the peninsula off Ukraine, sparking a wave of international sanctions and other measures aimed at isolating Moscow. But Trump has repeatedly left the door open to recognizing Russia’s claim over Crimea during his meeting with Putin, even repeating Moscow’s talking point that it has a rightful claim to the territory because most residents speak Russian. The president stoked further concern this week when he again did not rule out the possibility during his press conference at the end of the tumultuous NATO summit.

“That’s an interesting question, because long before I got here President Obama allowed that to happen, that was under his watch, not my watch,” Trump said. “What will happen with Crimea from this point on? That, I can’t tell you.”

One of the post-Crimea punishments for Russia was getting booted from the then-Group of Eight world economic powers. But last month, on his way to the Group of Seven summit in Canada, Trump said that should be reversed. “Russia should be in this meeting,” he said at the time. “Why are we having a meeting without Russia being in the meeting?”

The U.S. and its European allies stepped up their military posture and exercises in Eastern Europe after the Crimea annexation. But after Trump unilaterally agreed to cancel joint military exercises with South Korea during his summit with North Korea’s Kim, allies are fearful of him doing the same with Putin. Republicans in Congress are cautioning Trump against a repeat performance. “I think the president should listen to his security council and our secretary of Defense and our NATO allies on anything of substance dealing with the U.S. military posture. We’ve got to be careful, we’ve got to be strong,” said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who recently led a congressional delegation to Russia.

Arms control

Trump has said one of his top priorities for the summit is arms control, a topic that could produce a rare opportunity for the U.S. and Russia to find common ground. Arms control advocates say Trump can score an easy win with Putin by agreeing to extend the New START Treaty for another five years. The treaty, negotiated by the Obama administration, caps the U.S. and Russia’s deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 each and comes up for renewal in 2021. “[Renewal] would ensure that we do not return to a numerical arms race,” said Thomas Countryman, former assistant secretary of State on international security and nonproliferation.

But most experts do not believe a decision on New START will come at the summit. Trump has dismissed the treaty as one of Obama’s “bad deals,” and it could take some convincing to get him on board. Republicans have argued the treaty should not be extended while Russia is in violation of a separate arms control agreement known as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. That agreement, which has been credited with helping end the Cold War, bans ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The United States has repeatedly accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty by developing and deploying a banned missile, a charge Moscow denies.

The summit could provide an opportunity for Trump to address the INF violation directly with Putin, but experts say Russia has shown little appetite for reversing course.

Stagecraft

Even more than contentious policy issues, the visuals could be the most memorable part of the Trump-Putin summit. Trump and Putin will hold a joint press conference, which should be a spectacle in and of itself and give U.S. media a chance to rare opportunity to press the Russian leader on election meddling and other key issues. It could cause problems for Trump if he appears too friendly with Putin, especially given the timing of the meeting, just days after the hacking indictments.

But Trump’s desire to form a close bond with Putin could lead the president to give his Russian counterpart a warm reception, just like he did with Kim in Singapore. It could fuel criticism back home that Trump has a greater affinity for strongmen than he does for longtime U.S. allies.

Days before the summit, Trump was shown grimacing during a group photo with NATO partners in Brussels and rolled his eyes when he was asked during a meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May about critical comments he made about the U.K. leader. Putin, a former KGB officer with a flair for the dramatic, could also have some tricks up his sleeve.

The Russian leader frequently shows up late for meetings with world leaders, even forcing Pope Francis to wait for 50 minutes before a 2015 sit-down in Vatican City. Putin even brought his pet Labrador to a 2007 meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has a well-known fear of dogs. The Russian president later said he did not mean to scare Merkel and claimed he apologized after learning she is scared of dogs.

*  *  *
And in case it’s not immediately obvious, as Jim Jatras recently noted, there are many reasons the bipartisan US establishment hates Trump. His heresies from neoliberal orthodoxies on immigration and trade are prominent. But top among them is his oft-stated intention to improve relations with Russia.

That’s fighting words for the Deep State and its mainstream media arm, for which demonizing Russia and its president Vladimir Putin is an obsession.

The fact that Donald Trump made his intention to get along with Moscow a priority during his 2016 campaign, both against his Republican primary rivals and Hillary Clinton (who has compared Putin to Hitler) was cause for alarm. This is because far more than even the frightening prospect that the 70-year state of war on the Korean Peninsula might end, US reconciliation with Russia would yank the rug out from under the phony justifications for spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually to counter a “threat” that ceased to exist over a quarter century ago. Absent hostility to Russia that money has no reason to keep sustaining the power, privilege, and prosperity of a horde of moochers and profiteers, both at home and abroad.

That’s why when it was reported soon after his January 2017 inauguration that Trump was seeking to open dialogue with the Kremlin and set an early summit with Putin there was a hysterical counteraction.

*  *  *

Finally, watch out for any ‘hot mic’ incidents, because it would very awkward if a president on the United States was caught offering himself up to a Russian leader…

Trump never colluded with the Russians, but guess who did? 👇 pic.twitter.com/5dzmR1lFyK

— Christine (@Tweetsfor45) July 14, 2018

US President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on Monday, in a much-anticipated summit against the backdrop of an ongoing American investigation into Moscow’s alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential elections. Despite complimentary allegations of collusion between then-candidate Trump’s campaign and Russian agents casting a shadow over the meet, there are many issues on the table that, however approached and the resulting deals cut, will go a long way towards determining the course of global events, especially in the Middle East.

In fact, both the war in Syria and the Iran nuclear deal are expected to top the agenda, with speculation already swirling about potential arrangements that could, for example, see the US recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea in return for the Kremlin’s support for renewed American sanctions on Tehran; or, perhaps, a commitment by Moscow to expel Iranian forces from Syria in exchange for a partial withdrawal of US troops from the country.

Overall, analysts are speaking of a “grand bargain” of sorts that would update and formalize the terms of the Washington-Moscow relationship.

Notably, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu traveled to Russia last week to reiterate his “red lines” with respect to Syria, a combustible arena where the competing interests of regional and global powers intersect, thus making it a perennial hotspot for the possible emergence, whether intentional or otherwise, of new and protracted military engagements. Most acutely, the Israeli leader insists that Shi’ite forces under Iranian control, including Hezbollah, be banned from operating anywhere near the Golan Heights, and, more broadly, that these fighters, along with their Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, ultimately be completely removed from the country.

Over the weekend, Netanyahu further pressed these positions in a phone conversation with President Trump, whom he again thanked for taking a hardline approach to Iran. As to the atomic pact specifically, which the Europeans are feverishly trying to salvage following the White House’s withdrawal from the agreement earlier this year, Sunni Arab nations are as concerned as the Jewish state about the Islamic Republic’s potential nuclearization and, like Netanyahu, have made their voices heard, albeit mainly behind-the-scenes.

Accordingly, from Jerusalem to Riyadh, Amman to Beirut, all eyes will be on the Finnish capital, as the former Cold War foes plot a path forward.

“There is an intention by the US and Russia to arrive at a form of worldwide agreement about their respective ‘spheres of influence,'” Dr. Zaki Shalom, a Senior Research Fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and an expert on the role of superpowers in the Middle East, told The Media Line. “It is similar to what took place after the Second World War when there was a deal between [then-U.S. president] Roosevelt, [former British leader] Churchill and [Soviet chief] Stalin regarding who controls what in order to avoid any direct clashes.

“[In this respect], the Americans have sent a message to Moscow that they are willing to give Putin free reign in Syria and that Assad can remain in power. Also, President Trump realizes that Russia’s hold of Crimea is essentially a fait accompli. Given this understanding,” Dr. Shalom elaborated, “President Trump is likely to push for the Iranians to leave Syria, while asking Russia to accept dramatic changes to the nuclear accord between world powers and Tehran. As per North Korea, Washington will want Russian support for the demilitarization [of the Peninsula].”

Regarding the Middle East, strengthening the atomic deal and curbing Iran’s territorial expansionism are viewed by many analysts as make-or-break issues that, in the absence of progress, could have devastating consequences.

Already, Tehran has assumed a stranglehold over Lebanon through its Hezbollah proxy and has made inroads in Yemen and Iraq. Syria, however, could be the straw that shatters the camel’s back as Israel seems intent on preventing Iran from gaining a permanent foothold in the country and has conducted well over one hundred cross-border strikes over the past years to this end. Should the Islamic Republic continue its military build-up, Jerusalem’s hand may be forced and a full-blown conflict could ensue.

Yet it appears that both the US and Russia share an interest in averting such an eventuality.

As the war in Syria winds down, Moscow has become less dependent on Iranian-backed fighters to do its dirty work on the ground and, overall, wants to avoid future instability that could threaten regime and, as a corollary, jeopardize its military gains. Therefore, according to Dr. Zaki, “while Putin might not be able to forcibly evict Iranian troops, he can give Israel the green-light to continue attacking their assets inside Syria. Without Russian protection, the Iranians will essentially be left alone without the ability to respond to Israel. In the end, it may be that only a limited number of ‘advisers’ will remain in order for Tehran to save face.”

Avi Melamed, Salisbury Fellow of Intelligence and Middle East Affairs at the Washington-based Eisenhower Institute, similarly believes that a US-Russia deal on Syria will come at Iran’s expense. “Putin is at the phase in which he wants to collect dividends in Syria. While he has to take into consideration the needs of all actors, he does not want the Iranians to become too powerful. This is not to say that Tehran will be fully [neutralized], but rather forced to make concessions. It will be a disappointment from their perspective given the massive investment made.”

In terms of the US military presence, Melamed contended to The Media Line that he does not expect any major changes to the current dynamic. “In the context of Syria, the American military deployment is not like the one in Afghanistan or Iraq. There is an aerial component largely [taking flight] from northern Jordan and another one through [allied] Kurdish forces east of the Euphrates. I do not see this being drawn down.”

Finally, he concluded, as regards the nuclear deal “President Trump has the upper hand because the major blow is the withdrawal of Western companies from the Iranian economy and Putin cannot compensate for the losses.” This, coupled with the fact that France, Britain and Germany have to date been unable to reach a new compromise with Iran and will not be sheltered from US secondary sanctions, suggests the atomic pact may soon be totally abrogated.

Superficially, then, it appears that Israel and its Sunni neighbors stand to have their positions advanced in Helsinki by two of the world’s greatest superpowers. Whether this fosters a period of wait-and-see quiet or increased tensions will depend primarily on how aggressively Iran responds to the prospective setback.