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The Region: What Obama faces in I… JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

If We Lose Syria We Lose Tehran

17/02/2013

By Tariq Alhomayed

Tariq Alhomayed

Tariq Alhomayed is the former Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Mr. Alhomayed has an acclaimed and distinguished career as a Journalist and has held many key positions in the field including; Assistant Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, Managing Editor of Asharq Al-Awsat in Saudi Arabia, Head of Asharq Al-Awsat Newspaper’s Bureau-Jeddah, Correspondent for Al – Madina Newspaper in Washington D.C. from 1998 to Aug 2000. Mr. Alhomyed has been a guest analyst and commentator on numerous news and current affair programs including: the BBC, German TV, Al Arabiya, Al- Hurra, LBC and the acclaimed Imad Live’s four-part series on terrorism and reformation in Saudi Arabia. He is also the first Journalist to conduct an interview with Osama Bin Ladin’s Mother. Mr. Alhomayed holds a BA degree in Media studies from King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah, and has also completed his Introductory courses towards a Master’s degree from George Washington University in Washington D.C. He is based in London.

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Obama’s Outstretched Hand to Iran

Assad and the Israeli Air Raid

Are You Serious, Mr. President?

A Long Night for Egypt

Arab Spring States Lack Experience

How will al-Assad leave?

The Assadi Basij

The best description of Iran’s relationship with Syria, and the magnitude of Tehran’s loss if the tyrant of Damascus were to fall, was summed up by an Iranian cleric, Mehdi Taeb, a man tasked with combatting the soft war currently being directed against Iran. He said, “If we lose Syria we cannot maintain Tehran . . . But if we lose the province of Khuzestan [to the Al-Ahwaz Arabs] we could regain it as long as we keep Syria.”

Taeb not only said this, but also that “Syria is the 35th province and a strategic province for us. If we were to attack an enemy in order to keep Syria or Khuzestan, the priority would be to keep Syria.” In light of these statements, how can it be argued that what is happening in Syria is a sectarian war by proxy, or that the Syrian revolution is being orchestrated by extremists? The truth is that it is a revolution of the people who want to be free and rid themselves of the clutches of Iranian occupation, which has been a feature throughout the Assad era. These blunt statements, which seem to have been made as a result of the shock of what is happening on the ground in Syria, show the predicament of the Iranian project in the region, and not only in Syria. The fall of Assad would be the largest and most severe blow to be dealt to the Iranian project, and the concept of exporting the Khomeini revolution, and it would also mean that Iranian extremists would have to face up to the internal dues they have long evaded.

Remarkably, Taeb not only illustrated the importance of Syria for his country; he went further than that and spoke openly about the 60,000-strong forces overseen by Iran in Syria, saying, “The Syrian regime has an army, but it lacks the ability to conduct a war in Syrian cities. Therefore the Iranian government proposed to formulate an urban warfare force, consisting of 60,000 combat troops, to take over the war on the streets from the Syrian army.” This figure exceeds what was revealed recently about the number of troops supervised by Iran in Syria, which was said to have been closer to 50,000, and thus Taeb’s statements not only reveal the importance of Syria to Iran, they also reveal the extent of Iranian involvement in the Syrian bloodshed. Furthermore, they tell us that if we do not deal with the Syrian issue seriously, with international efforts, then this Iranian interference will pass by unchecked, and this means more extremism and sectarian conflict in the future, and this is a danger to the region as a whole.

These Iranian statements and others must not lead us to the conclusion that Iran should be given an official role in Syria, rather they should lead to international action to overthrow Bashar Assad and bring about his inevitable downfall, striking the Iranian expansionist project in the region. It is no exaggeration to say that the fall of Assad will serve as the first serious step towards halting Iran’s nuclear project. The fall of Assad does not necessarily mean the fall of Iran, but it means the Mullahs would return to their natural borders within Tehran, and this is what we need. Then the extremists of Iran will have to face their dues in the Iranian domestic scene, but that is their story. Our story is about a region that has been stricken by Iran and its interventions, its fifth column operating among us, and its men deployed in Syria who will remain silent as usual and not say a word about the Mehdi Taeb’s remarks

via If We Lose Syria We Lose Tehran Asharq Alawsat Newspaper (English).

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Iran naval exercise Photo: MCT

Iran naval exercise Photo: MCT

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Iran plans to establish new navy base

Tehran announces plans to build new base near Pakistan’s border in Sea of Oman

Associated Press

Published: 02.17.13, 10:42 / Israel News

Iran’s official news agency reported Sunday that the country’s navy plans to establish a new base near Pakistan’s border in the Sea of Oman.

The plans are part of Iran’s ambitions to exert its naval power outside the Persian Gulf, including sending warships to the Mediterranean and claiming it might someday have ships in the Atlantic.

via Iran plans to establish new navy base – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Iran reaches out to Egypt in bid for increased regional power – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo by AFP

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Syria opposition leader: We would drop Iran, Hezbollah ties

By Reuters | Feb.17,2013 | 11:12 AM | 17

In Syria crisis, Iran seeks regional power even if it means losing Assad

By Zvi Bar’el | Feb.17,2013 | 11:12 AM | 1

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By Zvi Bar’el | Feb.17,2013 | 11:12 AM

Buddha statues join Barbie dolls on Iran’s list of banned items

By The Associated Press | Feb.17,2013 | 11:12 AM

Iran reached out to Egypt on Saturday, just as Egyptian sources leaked to a Saudi newspaper what Egyptian intelligence officials had told Morsi: that resuming diplomatic ties with Iran would do more harm than good.

“I suggest you adopt the Iranian model and join Tehran to build a new Islamic culture,” read a letter sent by 17 advisers of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei to Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi. The letter, signed by senior adviser Ali Akbar Veyalati, among others, was reported Saturday in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al Awsat, which also received the Egyptian intelligence leak.

The letter will not decide the issue of rebuilding relations between Egypt and Iran, which is not on the agenda at the moment. The slap in the face that the heads of Al-Azhar University gave Ahmadinejad during his Cairo visit when they demanded that he stop spreading Shiite doctrine in Egypt, together with the shoe that was thrown at him, were only a dramatic public expression of the deeply-felt view in Egypt that Iran is a threat.

Iran’s letter is more indicative of its diplomatic effort to set itself up as a contender in the battle to redraw the post-revolutionary Middle East and the pressure it feels over the developments in Syria.

The letter was intended as more than a message to Egypt. Its purpose was also to hint to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states that Iran would make every effort to weaken their power and influence over the region’s future, and to tell them that after getting Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to come under Iran’s influence, the traditional Arab axis would be next. Iran is already preparing itself for 2014, when American forces will be leaving Afghanistan, turning that stricken country into the focus of a struggle for political influence between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Iran is concerned by two foci of conflict. One is Iraq, where Sunni districts and tribes are rising up in protest, threatening to overthrow the regime of Nouri al-Maliki, Iran’s ally. The other is in Syria and Lebanon. Officials of the Iraqi opposition report that Iran gave al-Maliki $6 billion to put down the Sunni rebellion and that the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani, promised to send 50,000 recruits from the Basij volunteer militia to help suppress the protests.

While these reports can be viewed with skepticism, their publication provides evidence of the rising tension between the Sunnis and the Kurds on the one hand and the Iraqi government and its patron, Iran, on the other.

Iranian officials describe the crisis in Syria as a strategic threat that could crush Iran’s most important access route to the Arab Middle East. From Iran’s perspective, Syria and Lebanon are a single sphere of influence over which it is fighting with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which are funding and evidently arming the opposition forces. Iran, which continues to support Assad – spending enormous sums to prop up his regime (recently it opened a credit line of $1 billion for the regime’s use) – is an active participant in the struggle on the ground.

Revolutionary Guard troops and Hezbollah fighters are operating in Syrian territory on two fronts. They provide consulting and training for the high command, and they also fight against radical Sunni militias that have managed to take over strategic locations and bases there.

The battle has also trickled into Lebanon, whose northern portion is crowded with Sunni citizens who support the Syrian opposition. Over the past few days, it was reported that the radical Al-Nusra Front, an affiliate of Al-Qaida, had reached southern Lebanon, where they were trying to establish bases in Palestinian refugee camps. If these reports are correct, Hezbollah could find itself in a tough battle in Lebanon against armed Sunni troops who would split the area of fighting between Syria and Lebanon. This comes at a time when Lebanon is preparing for general elections planned for June, in which Iran and Hezbollah need to ensure a majority in the parliament that will maintain their political control over the country.

These pressure points obligate Iran to examine its options and try to set up new centers of influence in case Assad falls and Iraq enters a violent civil conflict. That is why Iran attaches such importance to its relations with Egypt and why it is trying to establish a base of influence for itself in Yemen. It is doubtful whether its efforts will bear fruit, particularly against the barricade Saudi Arabia has put up. At the same time, it seems that Iran’s diplomacy and military intervention are actually strengthening the Arab alliance that opposes it.

Iran’s vulnerable array of interests, together with the Arab world’s solid stance against Iran, could benefit Israel if the latter were willing to resume the peace process and heal the crisis with Turkey. But as Israel’s strategic vision shrinks to the point of seeing only more housing units in the settlements, this opportunity, too, will pass it by.

‘Iran will never shut down Fordow nuclear plant’

By REUTERS

02/17/2013 15:41

Head of Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy c’tee says enrichment plant is essential to defend Tehran against enemy threat, adds that suggestion to shut down Fordow “is meant to help the Zionist regime.”

Iran MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi.

Iran MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi. Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi

DUBAI – Iran will never shut down its Fordow uranium enrichment plant, a senior legislator was quoted as saying on Sunday, brushing off a demand from world powers who fear Tehran is working to develop an atomic weapons capability.

The Islamic republic, which insists its nuclear program is purely peaceful, started building the plant inside a mountain in secret as early as 2006, to protect it from air strikes.

Related:

Iran denies mystery explosion at Fordow facility

‘West to ease sanctions if Iran shuts nuke bunker’

Last week, Reuters reported world powers were planning to offer to ease sanctions barring trade in gold and other precious metals with Iran in return for steps to shut down Fordow.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, referred to the reported offer on Sunday and dismissed any idea of a closure, the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported.

“Fordow will never be shut down because … our national duty is to be able to defend our nuclear and vital centers against an enemy threat,” Boroujerdi was quoted as saying by the agency.

“This suggestion (shutting down Fordow) is meant to help the Zionist regime (Israel),” he added.

Click here for full Jpost coverage of the Iranian threat

Israel has threatened to attack Iran if diplomacy and sanctions fail to curb its nuclear program, raising fears of a regional war.

The United States and its allies are particularly worried about Fordow because Iran is refining uranium there to a fissile concentration of 20 percent, which Iran says it needs for a medical reactor. Twenty percent purity is only a short technical step from weapons-grade uranium.

Western officials said last week the offer to ease sanctions barring gold and other precious metals trade with Iran would be presented at February 26 talks between Iran and world powers in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

They acknowledged it represented a relatively modest update to proposals that the six major powers put forward last year.

Iran’s parliament has little control over the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, which is decided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

via ‘Iran will never shut down Fordo… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

‘Iranian nuclear chief observed Korean nuke test’

By JPOST.COM STAFF

02/17/2013 06:38

Western officials say Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi is believed to have been in N.Korea for test, ‘The Sunday Times’ reports.

Kim Yong-Nam arrives at NAM conference in Tehran

Kim Yong-Nam arrives at NAM conference in Tehran Photo: REUTERS/Handout

The alleged father of Iran’s nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, is believed to have been present in North Korea last week in order to observe its third nuclear test, Britain’s The Sunday Times reported citing Western intelligence sources.

According to the sources, Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi was responsible for the development of a warhead “small enough to fit on to one of the ballistic missiles developed by Iran from North Korean prototypes,” the report stated.

Related:

As world slams N. Korea, Iran urges disarmament

Israel, UNSC condemn North Korea nuclear test

North Korea said its test on Tuesday had “greater explosive force” than the 2006 and 2009 tests, which were widely seen as small-scale.

The report echoes comments made earlier in the week by a security expert that the nuclear test may have also been carried out on behalf of Iran, and in the presence of Iranian atomic scientists.

North Korea is making progress both in its nuclear weapons capabilities and its ICBM missile research, Dr. Alon Levkowitz, coordinator of Bar-Ilan University’s Asian Studies Program and a member of the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, told The Jerusalem Post.

“The most disturbing question is whether the Iranians are using North Korea as a backdoor plan for their own nuclear program. The Iranians didn’t carry out a nuclear test in Iran, but they may have done so in North Korea,” Levkowitz said. “There is no official information on this… but Iran may have bypassed inspections via North Korea. If true, this is a very worrying development.”

Speaking to the Post in April, sources highly familiar with North Korea said a nuclear test was imminent, and that Iranian scientists could be present at the explosion site. During North Korea’s previous two nuclear detonations, Iranian nuclear scientists were present, according to several indicators, Levkowitz said.

It remains unclear whether the North Koreans detonated a plutonium- based nuclear device or one that was based on enriched uranium on Tuesday. The latter option would further suggest increased cooperation with Iran, he added.

“There is regular cooperation, since the 1980s, between North Korea and Iran. North Korea also helped set up a plutonium nuclear facility in Syria, which was bombed by Israel in 2007, according to foreign sources,” he said.

The feeble response by the international community to North Korea was due to China and Russia’s refusal to pass harsher binding UN Security Council resolutions, Levkowitz said, adding that this sent a worrying message to Iran. Tehran was learning that the international community would fail to monitor and prevent nuclear proliferation, and that consequences for blatant transgressions were mild, he added.

In April 2012, Iranian officials from the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group observed a failed North Korean rocket launch, according to a report by the South Korean Yonhap news agency.

Although Seoul has neither confirmed nor denied the report, it believes that a delegation of a dozen Iranian scientists may have been technically involved in North Korea’s failed long-range missile launch, which was disguised as a satellite launch. North Korea has tested two atomic bombs in recent years, once in 2006 and again in 2009 – both times after it carried out failed missile tests.

The North’s nuclear weapons program is mainly based on plutonium, while Iran is mostly relying on uranium in its efforts to build a bomb. Yet some analysts believe that Tehran may be pursuing a parallel, secret plutonium nuclear program. Similarly, North Korea is also known to have enriched uranium through spinning centrifuges, a process Pyongyang has recently made much progress in, Levkowitz said.

Responding to the North Korean test, Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday called for the destruction of all nuclear weapons in the world. The statement said countries had a right to use “peaceful” nuclear technology.

Iran also confirmed on Tuesday reports that it was diverting a portion of its enriched uranium to the Tehran Research Reactor, where it will be converted into nuclear fuel rods that cannot be used for weapons construction.

Iran exercises this option whenever it wishes the international community to believe that it is moving away from a nuclear breakout stage. It is widely believed that Israel defines this breakout stage as having 240 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent.

In recent weeks, Iran sent a very different signal, by announcing that it was installing faster, more advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz.

Yaakov Lappin contributed to this report

via ‘Iranian nuclear chief observed … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

EU won’t add Hezbollah to list of terrorist groups

European Union sources say that if Hezbollah’s involvement in last July’s terrorist attack in Bulgaria is proved, EU will consider implementing pinpoint sanctions against it, but will refrain from calling it a terrorist organization.

Dan Lavie, Daniel Siryoti and Israel Hayom Staff

No proof? The scene of the terrorist attack against Israeli tourists in Burgas, Bulgaria, last July.

|

Photo credit: AP

If the required proof implicating Hezbollah in the terrorist attack in Bulgaria last July is provided, then the EU would lean toward implementing pinpoint sanctions against elements involved in the attack, but would refrain from formally declaring Hezbollah a “terrorist organization,” European Union sources said on Sunday.

According to Israel Radio, French Foreign Ministry spokesman Philippe Lalliot said Saturday that the Council of European Foreign Ministers could discuss the possibility of measures against Hezbollah following the recent report from Bulgaria that pinned responsibility for the attack on Hezbollah.

Lalliot also said, however, that Bulgaria had thus far failed to present tangible evidence of Hezbollah involvement, despite clearly fingering the group as culprits.

EU foreign ministers will meet on Feb. 18 for a regular gathering, and may discuss the issue.

The U.S. already lists the group as a terrorist organization and U.S. and Israeli authorities want to see the EU take a similar position.

If such proof is provided, according to Lalliot, it would be possible to discuss, among other measures, the option of adding Hezbollah to the list of terrorist organizations. Lalliot said that the matter was complex and largely dependent on evidence the Bulgarians are able to present.

Canada, meanwhile, was pushing EU countries to add Hezbollah to the terror list. A Canadian government official said evidence of Hezbollah involvement in terrorism across the globe, with Iranian support, was abundant.

Following the publication of the Bulgarian report, which said a Canadian citizen was involved, Canada’s Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said last week that he was considering revoking citizenship for Canadians convicted of terrorist activity.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Saturday that he would not comment on the Bulgarian report blaming his group for the attack that killed five Israeli tourists and one Bulgarian national, saying only that the “issue is being followed calmly and closely.”

via Israel Hayom | EU won’t add Hezbollah to list of terrorist groups.