Archive for February 2, 2013

Obama green light for Israel to strike Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah military links

February 2, 2013

Obama green light for Israel to strike Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah military links.

( If this is accurate, there is only one word that is relevant: ” WOW !!!!” – JW )

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 2, 2013, 4:57 PM (GMT+02:00)

Obama approves Israeli action after Iran ducks out of nuclear diplomacy
Obama approves Israeli action after Iran ducks out of nuclear diplomacy

The air raid over the Jamraya military complex near Damascus Wednesday, Jan. 30, attributed to Israel by Western sources was Israeli’s first assault on the Syrian-Hizballah military compact forged between Bashar Assad and Hassan Nasrallah.

That was the real strategic import of the operation, which took place with the approval of US President Barack Obama, debkafile’s military sources report.

In every other respect, it was a surgical strike on a well-defined target, comparable to Israel’s attack in September 2007 on the nuclear reactor North Korea was building at El Kabir in northern Syria. The object then was to sever the Syrian-Iranian-North Korean nuclear link before it took physical shape and began turning out plutonium for Iran’s nuclear program.

After its destruction, Tehran and Pyongyang decided to cut Syria out of their nuclear plans because its proximity to Israel made any nuclear site an easy mark.

The overriding importance of the attack on the Syrian military compound therefore lies in its three objectives:

1.  The Jamraya complex was selected because it serves the shared military agendas of Syria, Hizballah and Iran.
The bombers struck three targets: a Syrian chemical weapons store and laboratories; a depot holding the sophisticated weapons Iran had sent Hizballah in the last two years – some of which, like the SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles, are termed “game changers” in a potential clash with Israel; and a large fleet of trucks standing by to ferry the munitions across the border into Lebanon.
Israeli threats to destroy the weapons had so far prevented their transfer.
In a separate building at Jamraya, Hizballah forces learned how to use the new Iranian hardware and maintained a team of drivers ready to move the arsenal over to Lebanon. This building was not attacked.
2.  The air strike was a move toward disrupting the cooperative military efforts of all three allies in Syria and Lebanon;
3.   Israel took its first step into the Syrian conflict.
As we first reported in the latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday, the operation went forward with a green light from President Obama, after he was briefed on the plan by AMAN (Israeli Military Intelligence) commander, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi at the White House on Jan. 22.
Our sources also reported that another Israeli emissary, National Security Adviser Yakov Amidror, visited Moscow at the same time to warn Russian leaders of the coming attack in Syria.

While Russian officials voiced objections to Israeli attacking Syria, they also apparently omitted to forewarn President Assad of what was coming and he was taken by surprise. After the raid, President Vladimir Putin advised the Syrian ruler to refrain from exacerbating the military situation with Israel.

The reported Israeli strike on Jamraya had two key consequences of future relevance:
a)  President Obama’s consent for Israel and its armed forces IDF to be the first pro-Western power to intervene in the Syrian war, after keeping them out of involvement in the Arab Revolt raging around its borders for two years:

b)  Officials in Tehran publicly warned last week that an attack on Syria would be deemed an attack on Iran, a message no doubt underlined through diplomatic channels to Washington.  Nonetheless, after holding the Israeli government back for years from striking Iran’s nuclear sites, Obama approved an attack with the potential for widening into a major Israeli-Iranian military clash.

While the importance of keeping sophisticated missiles and poison gas out of Hizballah hands cannot be overrated, debkafile’s sources in Washington and Tehran reveal that what really pushed  the US president into his change of face was Iran’s withdrawal from the secret talks he set much store by for a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue.
Three further changes of major strategic importance occurred this week.
Tehran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna that new, high-speed IR2m centrifuges were being installed in Natanz to expand the 20-percent uranium enrichment taking place at the Fordo underground facility.
The Iranian letter was posted to the IAEA the day after the two Israeli emissaries visited Washington and Moscow.

The diplomatic channel to Tehran was symbolically shut down in Washington last week by the resignation of Gary Samore, President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction, Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control.

debkafile discloses that Samore was lead negotiator in the failed nuclear talks with Iran. His exit means that he sees no way of curbing Iran’s race for a nuclear weapon. He has taken up an appointment as Executive Director of Research in the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center.

US Vice President Joe Biden provided the third key development. Asked Saturday, Feb. 2, in Munich when Washington might hold direct talks with Tehran, he replied dismissively: “When the Iranian leadership, the supreme leader, is serious.”
Biden spoke for the Obama administration when he suggested that Khamenei has not been serious to date.
All three events contributed to the US president’s decision to let Israel have a go at the Syrian military complex, thereby broadcasting a signal to Tehran that, in the absence of serious negotiations, Washington is ready to expand its efforts for breaking up the Iran-Syrian Hizballah axis, using the IDF as its hammer.

Video of protester stripped, beaten fires Egypt fury

February 2, 2013

Video of protester stripped, beaten fires … JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS
02/02/2013 15:04
Man in hospital after beating by Cairo riot police; video recalls images from 2011 anti-Mubarak revolt.

Egyptian protesters throw fireworks at police, Feb. 1, 2013

Egyptian protesters throw fireworks at police, Feb. 1, 2013 Photo: REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih

CAIRO – After eight days of protests that killed nearly 60 people, a video of one demonstrator stripped naked, dragged across the ground and beaten with truncheons by helmeted riot police has fired Egyptians to a new level of outrage.

Hamada Saber, a middle-aged man, lay in a police hospital on Saturday, the morning after he was shown on television naked, covered in soot and thrashed by half a dozen policemen who had pulled him to an armored vehicle near the presidential palace.

President Mohamed Morsi’s office promised an investigation of the incident, which followed the deadliest wave of bloodshed of his seven-month rule. His opponents say it proves that he has chosen to order a brutal crackdown like that carried out by Hosni Mubarak against the uprising that toppled him in 2011.

“Morsi has been stripped bare and has lost his legitimacy. Done,” tweeted Ahmed Maher, founder of the April 6 youth movement that helped launch the anti-Mubarak protests.

Another protester was shot dead on Friday and more than 100 were injured, many seriously, after running battles between police and demonstrators who attacked the palace with petrol bombs.

That unrest followed eight days of violence that saw dozens of protesters shot dead in the Suez Canal city of Port Said and Morsi respond by declaring a curfew and state of emergency there and in two other cities.

But none of the bloodshed – which the authorities have blamed on the need for police to control violent crowds – has quite resonated like the images of police abusing a man at their feet – clearly helpless, prone and no possible threat.

“Stripping naked and dragging an Egyptian is a crime that shows the excessive violence of the security forces and the continuation of its repressive practices – a crime for which the president and his interior minister are responsible,” liberal politician Amr Hamzawy said on Twitter.

The incident was an unmistakable reminder of the beating of a woman by riot police on Tahrir Square in December 2011. Images of her being dragged and stomped on – her black abaya cloak torn open to reveal her naked torso and blue bra – became a rallying symbol for the revolution and undermined the interim military rulers who held power between Mubarak’s fall and Morsi’s rise.

Street unrest, instability threaten to render Egypt ungovernable

The rise of Morsi – the first freely elected leader in Egypt’s 5,000-year history – is probably the single most important change achieved by two years of revolts across the Arab world. But seven months since taking office, he has failed to unite Egyptians. Street unrest and political instability threaten to render the most populous Arab state ungovernable.

The latest round of violence was triggered by the second anniversary of the uprising against Mubarak and death sentences handed down last week in Port Said over a soccer stadium riot.

Morsi has had little opportunity to reform the police and security forces he inherited from Mubarak and the military men.

But the police action against protests this time has been far deadlier than it was even a few months ago, when bigger crowds demonstrated against a new constitution. That suggests to opponents that Morsi has ordered a tougher response.

“The instructions of the interior minister to use excessive violence in confronting protesters does not seem like surprising behavior given the clear incitement by prominent figures in the presidency, and leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood to which the president belongs, and other parties in solidarity with them,” said Khaled Daoud, spokesman for the opposition National Front.

The liberal, leftist and secularist opposition accuses Morsi of betraying the revolution that toppled Mubarak by concentrating too much power in his own hands and those of his Muslim Brotherhood, a formerly underground Islamist movement.

Morsi and the Brotherhood accuse the opposition of stoking street unrest to further their demands for a national unity government as a way to retake power they lost at the ballot box.

In announcing an investigation into the beating of Saber, Morsi’s office made clear he was still pointing the blame at the political opponents who have encouraged protests.

“What has transpired over the past day is not political expression, but rather acts of criminality. The presidency will not tolerate vandalism or attacks on individuals and property. The police have responded to these actions in a restrained manner,” Morsi’s office said.

“Doubtless, in the heat of the violence, there can be violations of civil liberties, and the presidency equally will not tolerate such abuses. In one incident, an individual was seen to be dragged and beaten by police. The Minister of Interior has, appropriately, announced an investigation.”

U.S. media gives new account of alleged Israeli attack on Syria

February 2, 2013

U.S. media gives new account of alleged Israeli attack on Syria – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

( From my experience, McClatchy has proven itself to be the least ideologically motivated, and hence the most reliable of the MSM. – JW )

McClatchy newspaper chain offers a first possible explanation for contradicting reports on the alleged Israel Air Force strike on Syria, says target was in fact anti-aircraft missile convoy.

By | Feb.02, 2013 | 5:05 PM
Israel Air Force F-15.

An Israel Air Force F-15 taking off. Photo by Daniel Bar-On

The contradictory reports regarding the nature of the target of an alleged Israeli attack on Syria received on Friday a first possible explanation in a report from the American McClatchy newspaper chain.

Several foreign media outlets have claimed that the Israel Air Force had struck on Wednesday a weapons convoy carrying advanced, Russian made SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles near the Syria-Lebanon border. According to some of the reports, the attack occurred near the Syrian town of al-Zabadani, not far from the border. Israel hasn’t officially acknowledged any involvement in the attack.

However, an official statement from the Syrian government claimed that the target of the strike was a scientific research center in the Damascene suburb of Jamarya, northwest of the capital. This site was believed by Western intelligence services to be a Syrian security facility dedicated to missile and rocket development and, apparently, unconventional weapons.

Jamarya is located dozens of kilometers away from the town of Zabadani. One of the possible explanations provided for the contradicting information is that Syria fears publicizing that a weapons convoy was attacked because it would be an admission that it was smuggling weaponry to Hezbollah in violation of UN Resolutions, granting legitimacy to an Israeli decision to attack.

Currently, according to reports from the United States, there is a way to reconcile the two different descriptions of the attack. The McClatchy newspaper chain claims that Israel did in fact attack a weapons convoy transporting advanced anti-aircraft missiles, but that the convoy was hit while it was parked at the center in Jamariya en route to the highway leading from Syria into Lebanon. The purported attack site in Jamariya is only eight kilometers from a crossing point north of Zabadani along the Lebanese border.

The IDF, particularly the Northern Command, remains on high alert for a possible response to the alleged Israeli air attack. Two Iron Dome batteries have been stationed in northern Israel to intercept any possible missile attacks. In Israel there is less concern of a Syrian military response than a possible response from Hezbollah, which has led to a stepping up of security at Israeli institutions abroad. There is also the possibility that Hezbollah will attempt to conduct terror attacks along Israel’s northern border without claiming responsibility.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak has been abroad in Munich, Germany since Thursday, participating in a conference for European defense ministers. Barak is expected to return to Israel on Sunday. IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz is also expected to travel to the U.S. soon for a work visit. If Gantz follows through with his travel plans, it will likely mean that Israel believes tensions in North have decreased.

Fars News Agency :: Iran’s Top Security Official to Leave for Damascus Today

February 2, 2013

Fars News Agency :: Iran’s Top Security Official to Leave for Damascus Today.

( And now a word from the enemies of civilization… – JW )

TEHRAN (FNA)- Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Saeed Jalili is slated to leave Tehran for Damascus later today to meet Syrian officials on bilateral ties and regional issues.

Heading a high-ranking security delegation, Jalili will embark on a visit to the Syrian capital later today to hold talks on the developments in the region.

The visit comes as Syria has been grappling with unrests for the last two years and came under an Israeli air raid three days ago. Israel attacked a Syrian scientific center in Jamraya, 25 kilometers (15 miles) Northwest of the Capital Damascus on Wednesday.

The Syrian Army said in a statement on Wednesday that two people were killed and five others injured in an Israeli airstrike on a scientific center in Jamraya, 25 kilometers (15 miles) Northwest of the capital Damascus.

Iranian Ambassador to Beirut Qazanfar Roknabadi rapped the Zionist regime for its recent aggression against Syria, and said Israel is following the Syrian developments greedily to find an opportunity to hit a blow at the Resistance Front.

“Since the onset of the crisis in Syria, the Islamic Republic of Iran has supported the popular demands, while warning against the plots which have been hatched on this path, and it has stressed that the usurper Zionist regime is looking greedily at the developments in Syria and their main goal is weakening the Resistance front,” Roknabadi said in a meeting with Head of Lebanon’s Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) Asa’ad Hardan in Beirut on Saturday.

He rapped the Zionist regime for its recent attack against Syria, and said, “It revealed their covert goal and meanwhile showed that the regime has failed to attain its objectives and consequently embarked on taking direct action.”

Hardan, for his part, said that Israel’s recent attack against Syria is an evidence of the enemies’ desperateness and hopelessness amid Iran’s strong support for Syria and the brave resistance of President Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian people against their plots.

Syria has been experiencing unrest since March 2011 with organized attacks by well-armed gangs against Syrian police forces and border guards being reported across the country.

Hundreds of people, including members of the security forces, have been killed, when some protest rallies turned into armed clashes.

The government blames outlaws, saboteurs, and armed terrorist groups for the deaths, stressing that the unrest is being orchestrated from abroad.

The US and its western and regional allies have long sought to topple Assad and his ruling system. Media reports said that the Syrian rebels and terrorist groups have received significantly more and better weapons in recent weeks, a crime paid for by the Persian Gulf Arab states and coordinated by the United States.

The US daily, Washington Post, reported in May that the Syrian rebels and terrorist groups battling the President Bashar al-Assad’s government have received significantly more and better weapons in recent weeks, a crime paid for by the Persian Gulf Arab states and coordinated by the United States.

The newspaper, quoting opposition activists and US and foreign officials, reported that Obama administration officials emphasized the administration has expanded contacts with opposition military forces to provide the Persian Gulf nations with assessments of rebel credibility and command-and-control infrastructure.

Opposition activists who several months ago said the rebels were running out of ammunition said in May that the flow of weapons – most bought on the black market in neighboring countries or from elements of the Syrian military in the past – has significantly increased after a decision by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Persian Gulf states to provide millions of dollars in funding each month.

Off topic: ‘Fiercely proud’ Koch died on the exact anniversary of the murder of his hero, Daniel Pearl

February 2, 2013

‘Fiercely proud’ Koch died on the exact anniversary of the murder of his hero, Daniel Pearl – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

( Koch was mayor when I lived in NYC.  Last week he posted one of his almost weekly editorials supporting Israel.  The world is a poorer place without him. ז”ל  – JW )

Koch had Pearl’s last words – ‘My father is Jewish. My mother is Jewish. I am Jewish’ – engraved on his headstone several years ago. He will be buried on Monday at Manhattan’s Trinity Church Cemetery.

By | Feb.01, 2013 | 7:03 PM | 2
Koch

In this July 16, 1984, file photo, New York Mayor Ed Koch raises his hands with two thumbs up while addressing the opening session of the Democratic National Convention in San Francisco. Photo by AP
Koch's headstone

Koch’s headstone in Manhattan.

Former New York mayor Ed Koch, who died early Friday morning, decided a few years ago to have his headstone engraved with the last words of American-Jewish journalist Daniel Pearl who was slain by Islamic militants in Pakistan: “My father is Jewish. My mother is Jewish. I am Jewish.”

And in a coincidence that can only be described as startling, Koch passed away at New York’s Presbyterian Hospital-Columbia on the very same date that Pearl, who had dual American and Israeli citizenship, was beheaded 11 years ago near Karachi.

Koch’s funeral will take place on Monday at New York’s Temple Emanuel – but he will be buried at a cemetery belonging to Manhattan’s Episcopalian Trinity Church. Koch’s headstone, which also boasts a Magen David and the Shma prayer in Hebrew and English, was placed in the cemetery, which is located on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, three years ago.

Koch paid $20,000 for the cemetery plot five years ago, saying that he had chosen it because it was the only cemetery in Manhattan that was still active. “I don’t want to leave Manhattan, even when I’m gone,” Koch told The Associated Press. “This is my home. The thought of having to go to New Jersey was so distressing to me.”

Koch told the New York Times in 2008 that he had consulted with rabbis about his plan to be buried in a church cemetery. “I called a number of rabbis to see if this was doable,” he said. “I was going to do it anyway, but it would be nice if it were doable traditionally.” He said he had been advised to request that the gate nearest his plot be inscribed as “the gate for the Jews,” and the cemetery agreed. He also built rails around his plot, as instructed.

Koch was born in 1924 in the Bronx to parents who had come to New York as refugees from Poland. In his autobiography, Koch wrote “My parents would never be like the assimilated German Jews who looked down on us. Neither of my parents was very religious, but being Jewish was very important to them.”

So it was to Koch, who was often the victim of anti-Semitic bullies in Newark, where he grew up. Asked once about his proud attachment to – and uninhibited exhibition of – his Judaism”, Koch once said: “Jews have always thought that having someone elevated with his head above the grass was not good for the Jews. I never felt that way. I believe that you have to stand up.”

On his headstone he also had the following epitaph inscribed: “He was fiercely proud of his Jewish faith. He fiercely defended the City of New York, and he fiercely loved its people. Above all, he loved his country, the United States of America, in whose armed forces he served in World War II.”

A documentary about Koch’s life, entitled “koch” opened on Friday in New York theaters, on the very day that the colorful three term mayor passed away. Even in death, Koch retained the trait that is critical for any showman of his stature: impeccable timing.

Eiland: Israel attacked Syria ‘with good reason’

February 2, 2013

Eiland: Israel attacked Syria ‘with good reason’ | The Times of Israel.

Former security official praises Jerusalem’s decision to carry out unconfirmed strike on its northerly neighbor

February 2, 2013, 4:28 pm
Former National Security Adviser Major General (ret.) Giora Eiland (photo credit: flash90)

Former National Security Adviser Major General (ret.) Giora Eiland (photo credit: Flash90)

Two days after he told Channel 2 that he does not believe the tension between Israel and Syria is a thing of the past, former national security adviser Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland confirmed that it was Israel that carried out the strikes on several sites in Syria overnight Tuesday — “and with good reason.”

Speaking at an event in Kfar Saba Saturday, Eiland praised the Israeli government’s decision to carry out the strikes, saying it was “the right decision, despite all the risks.”

Israel has not officially acknowledged that it carried out the raids, although the US has indicated that Israel did so. Eiland’s comments marked the closest step yet toward Israeli confirmation, but since he is no longer in official government service, they still do not constitute a formal Israel acknowledgement..

He added that there were three things Israel could not agree to with regard to Lebanese-based Shi’ite terrorist organization Hezbollah — it could not be allowed to attain long-range missiles with large missile heads, advanced anti-aircraft missiles “which would restrict the movements of the Israeli Air Force,” and chemical weapons.

The fear that Syria’s unconventional weapons could fall into the hands of groups such as Hezbollah may have been what prompted the Tuesday strikes, according to a TIME magazine report Friday.

In his television interview Thursday, Eiland had said there was a chance that the situation between Israel and Syria could heat up, describing a symbolic Syrian missile launch against Israel as a possible trigger that could seriously worsen an already tense situation.

Eiland said for years there has been a red line, an almost “quiet agreement” between Syria and Israel, by which no anti-aircraft, Scud missiles or similar arms — or chemical weapons — would be transferred from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. As far as actual intelligence, right now little is actually known about what is happening, he claimed.

If another attempt is made to move red-line weapons, Israel faces a dilemma, he said. Israel could act, but then faces the chance of escalation.

Turkish FM slams Assad for not responding to Israeli strike

February 2, 2013

Turkish FM slams Assad for not responding to Israeli strike | The Times of Israel.

( Wow… This goes beyond the usual self parody… Through the looking glass. .. Turkey begged for and received NATO patriots to defend against Assad.  Now Turkey attacks Assad for NOT attacking Israel.  Oh, and throws in a “conspiracy theory” for good measure.  I think it’s time NATO booted a country that claims to be more extreme than Assad. – JW )

Ahmet Davutoglu says his government will not stand by as Israel attacks a Muslim country

February 2, 2013, 3:02 pm
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu attends a press conference in Davos, Switzerland, last month (photo credit: AP/Michel Euler)

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu attends a press conference in Davos, Switzerland, last month (photo credit: AP/Michel Euler)

Turkey’s foreign minister blasted embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad on Saturday for not responding to an alleged Israeli strike on targets in Syria.

On his way to Munich, where he will meet with world leaders to discuss developments in Syria, Ahmet Davutoglu asked reporters, ”Why didn’t Assad even throw a pebble when Israeli jets were flying over his palace and playing with the dignity of his country?”

Davutoglu suggested that the Syrian leader is conspiring with Israel: “Is there a secret agreement between Assad and Israel? The Assad regime only abuses. Why don’t you use the same power that you use against defenseless women against Israel, which you have seen as an enemy since its foundation,” he said, according to The Hurriyet news agency.

The foreign minister said that Turkey will not stand by as Israel attacks a Muslim country.

“Syria must do what a country under attack has to do,” Today’s Zaman quoted Davutoglu as saying, seemingly goading the Assad regime to retaliate.

Media outlets throughout the world have reported that the Israeli Air Force carried out several strikes against targets in Syria overnight Tuesday. Among the reported targets was a convoy presumably carrying  advanced weapons to the terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as a so-called research facility, where non-conventional weapons were reportedly stationed.

A report in TIME magazine on Friday claimed that Israeli jets also struck at a biological weapons research center.

The US government has given the “green light” for Israeli to conduct further similar strikes, according to the report.

Also on Friday, outgoing US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta appeared to confirm that it was in fact Israel that had stuck targets in Syria — the Israeli government has remained reticent on the matter. He suggested that Washington was fully behind Israeli efforts to prevent advanced weapons from landing in the hands of terrorists.

“We have expressed the concern that we have to do everything we can to make sure that sophisticated weapons like SA-17 missiles or, for that matter chemical biological weapons, do not fall into the hands of terrorists,” he told AFP.

Why We Won’t Secure Syria’s Chemical Weapons – The Daily Beast

February 2, 2013

Why We Won’t Secure Syria’s Chemical Weapons – The Daily Beast.

( A good example of ideology at work.  The leftist “Daily Beast” is anti-Israel instinctively.  The only time they’ll support Israel is when it can be used to undercut the US doing anything against radical Islam.  More “through the looking glass” stuff.  Curiouser and curiouser… – JW )

Gil Troy, responding to news that Israel may have struck Syrian chemical weapons—or SA-17 surface-to-air missiles (reports remain unclear)—recommends a “raid” to secure Syria’s chemical weapons. The complexity of such a venture’s actual requirements, combined with the exaggeration of the threat, make it an incredibly dangerous idea.

Israeli F-15 Eagle fighter jet

An Israeli F-15 Eagle fighter jet takes off from an Israeli Air Force Base on Nov. 19, 2012. (Jack Guez/AFP, via Getty)

Seizing Syria’s chemical weapons sites would require at least 75,000 ground troops, according to Pentagon estimates. Simply clearing Syrian airspace would require around six times as many aircraft as employed in Libya—and supporting ground troops would require yet more still. “Raid” or not, any incursion into Syrian territory, especially into weapons depots co-located with major population centers and Syrian military deployments, will resemble a full-fledged invasion. Any operation that requires sending thousands of troops into a hostile state, and leaving them there until a new regime emerges, is not just an invasion but also an occupation of discrete parts of Syria.

Not only that, but such an incursion would be heavily reliant on the U.S., since virtually no other country is currently prepared to conduct any kind of large-scale ground incursion deep into Syrian territory. In Libya, the U.S. disproportionately provided the sophisticated requirements of dismantling air defenses, providing surveillance and reconnaissance, and refueling and airlift. (The U.S. also assists even powerful militaries such as France’s with similar tasks in Mali.) In Syria, the lack of foreign militaries properly trained and equipped for dealing with chemical weapons would force U.S. ground capabilities into the lead, too. Potential ground allies, such as Jordan and Turkey, will not be able to independently launch deep operations into Syria. (Regardless, they have more pressing concerns with border security.)

Keeping troops deployed only until “some stable Syrian leadership emerges” is not a prophylactic against mission creep: it’s an invitation. Libya—again, the example—still lacks a government that can prevent arms trafficking. Guarding Syrian depots would provide potentially ripe targets for pro-regime insurgents, Lebanese Hezbollah, Iranian Pasdaran, and radical rebel groups such as Jabhat al Nusra which may sour to Western troops. Waiting until a Syrian government emerges is not a plan but a prayer, particularly if the invasion occurs before the rebels are actually strong enough to overthrow the Syrian government themselves.

Those difficulties aside, an invasion is out of proportion with Syria’s chemical weapons threat. While horrific and dangerous, chemical weapons’ value for non-state actors is more psychological than practical. Al Qaeda in London killed more people and wounded nearly as many with cheap, simple backpack bombs than Aum Shinrikyo did in the Tokyo Sarin attack. Chemical weapons are expensive to operate, dangerous to transport, and easier to track—and require massive use with artillery and aircraft to be truly effective. The thousands learning bombmaking and infantry tactics in Syria are a more probable threat to the U.S. and many of its allies than chemical weapons. Gas is dangerous, but hardly worth a ground campaign in Syria.

Israel is not taking out the world’s garbage—it is conducting limited airstrikes, as it has done in Sudan and elsewhere, to prevent weapons shipments to or within its borders. While conducting such strikes is arguably justifiable, it is hardly doing the rest of the world a favor worth repaying with a war of this scale. Instead, like Israel, the rest of the world ought make measured judgments about discrete threats beyond its borders. None of those require what would be the largest and most reckless military operation since the Iraq War. Given tightening defense budgets, expanding al Qaeda threats in North Africa, an ongoing war in Afghanistan, and rising tension in Asia, putting troops into Syria is the last thing the U.S. needs. In the eyes of history, what appears to be quick and decisive often becomes rash and reckless.

Biden says US ready for direct talks, if Iran is serious

February 2, 2013

Biden says US ready for direct talks, if Iran is serious | The Times of Israel.

American VP claims there’s still time for diplomacy; Russian FM says world must convince Iran that it doesn’t seek regime change

February 2, 2013, 1:18 pm
US Vice President Joe Biden speaks to reporters in Berlin, Germany, ahead of a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday (photo credit: AP/Markus Schreiber)

US Vice President Joe Biden speaks to reporters in Berlin, Germany, ahead of a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday (photo credit: AP/Markus Schreiber)

MUNICH (AP) — The United States is prepared to hold direct talks with Iran in the standoff over its nuclear ambitions, Vice President Joe Biden said Saturday — but he insisted that Tehran must show it is serious and Washington won’t engage in such talks “just for the exercise.”

Washington has indicated in the past that it’s prepared to talk directly with Iran, and talks involving all five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have made little headway. Several rounds of international sanctions have cut into Iran’s oil sales and financial transactions.

Last month Iran, in a defiant move ahead of a new round of talks expected soon with the six powers, announced plans to vastly increase its pace of uranium enrichment. That can be used to make both reactor fuel and the fissile core of warheads.

Biden told an international security conference that “there is still time, there is still space for diplomacy backed by pressure to succeed.” He did not specify any timeframe.

He insisted that “the ball is in the government of Iran’s court” to show that it’s negotiating in good faith.

Asked when Washington might hold direct talks with Tehran, Biden replied: “when the Iranian leadership, the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), is serious.”

The US has long made clear that it is prepared to meet directly with the Iranian leadership, he added — “that offer stands but it must be real and tangible and there has to be an agenda that they’re prepared to speak to.”

“We’re not prepared to do it just for the exercise,” Biden told the Munich Security Conference.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, whose country is a key player in the six-nation talks with Iran, said he “would strongly support what Vice President Biden said about the need for incentives to be clearly shown to Iran.”

“We have to convince Iran that it is not about the regime change,” he said.

Iran insists it does not want nuclear arms and argues it has a right to enrich uranium for a civilian nuclear power program, but suspicion persists that the real aim is nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic hid much of its nuclear program until it was revealed from the outside more than a decade ago. And defying UN Security Council demands that it halt uranium enrichment, Iran has instead expanded it.

“Iran should not wait any longer to take up the willingness Vice President Biden has stressed to hold substantial negotiations on its nuclear program,” said Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle of Germany, whose country has been one of those trying to resolve the issue. He added that 2013 would be “decisive” for hopes of a diplomatic solution.

“From our point of view, announcing an accelerated expansion of uranium enrichment in Iran is the wrong signal,” Westerwelle said.

Biden underlined that “our policy is not containment — it is to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.”

The conference — an annual gathering of top security officials — also gave Biden an opportunity to address the civil war in Syria. He planned to hold separate meetings with Lavrov, international peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, and Syria’s top opposition leader, Moaz al-Khatib. Russia is a longtime ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Biden stressed the conviction of the US and many others that “President Assad — a tyrant hell-bent on clinging to power — is no longer fit to lead the Syrian people and he must go.” He said that “the opposition continues to grow stronger.”

Despite differences, “we can all agree on the increasingly deep plight of the Syrian people and the responsibility of the international community to address that plight,” he told an audience that included Lavrov.

But Lavrov fired back that “there are a lot of question marks about the Western approaches to those developments,” in the region, asking whether supporting antigovernment protesters justified terrorists, and questioning when it is “permissible to cooperate with regimes and when is it legitimate to argue for their removal.”

“We are all interested in the stability of the Mideast and the African continent,” and for governments to be democratic and peaceful, Lavrov said. “If we agree on these common objectives we could probably agree on some transparent and common rules for all actors to follow.”

Lavrov also suggested Biden’s statement that Assad must go was counterproductive.

“The persistence of those who say that priority number one is the removal of President Assad — I think it’s the single biggest reason for the continued tragedy in Syria.”

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.

Biden: U.S. prepared to hold direct talks with Iran only if regime ‘is serious’

February 2, 2013

Biden: U.S. prepared to hold direct talks with Iran only if regime ‘is serious’ – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

U.S. Vice president says Iran must prove it is negotiating in good faith; ‘our policy is not containment – it is to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.’

 

By | Feb.02, 2013 | 1:26 PM | 3U.S. Vice President Joe Biden.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden gestures during his speech at the Security Conference in Munich, southern Germany, February 2, 2013. Photo by AP

 

The United States is prepared to hold direct talks with Iran in the standoff over its nuclear ambitions, Vice President Joe Biden said Saturday – but he insisted that Tehran must show it is serious and Washington won’t engage in such talks “just for the exercise.”

 

Washington has indicated in the past that it’s prepared to talk directly with Iran, and talks involving all five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have made little headway. Several rounds of international sanctions have cut into Iran’s oil sales and financial transactions.

 

Last month Iran, in a defiant move ahead of a new round of talks expected soon with the six powers, announced plans to vastly increase its pace of uranium enrichment. That can be used to make both reactor fuel and the fissile core of warheads.

 

Biden told an international security conference that “there is still time, there is still space for diplomacy backed by pressure to succeed.” He did not specify any timeframe.

 

He insisted that “the ball is in the government of Iran’s court” to show that it’s negotiating in good faith.

 

Asked when Washington might hold direct talks with Tehran, Biden replied: “when the Iranian leadership, the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), is serious.”

 

The U.S. has long made clear that it is prepared to meet directly with the Iranian leadership, he added – “that offer stands but it must be real and tangible and there has to be an agenda that they’re prepared to speak to.”

 

“We’re not prepared to do it just for the exercise,” Biden told the Munich Security Conference.

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, whose country is a key player in the six-nation talks with Iran, said he “would strongly support what Vice President Biden said about the need for incentives to be clearly shown to Iran.”

 

“We have to convince Iran that it is not about the regime change,” he said.

 

Iran insists it does not want nuclear arms and argues it has a right to enrich uranium for a civilian nuclear power program, but suspicion persists that the real aim is nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic hid much of its nuclear program until it was revealed from the outside more than a decade ago. And defying UN Security Council demands that it halt uranium enrichment, Iran has instead expanded it.

 

“Iran should not wait any longer to take up the willingness Vice President Biden has stressed to hold substantial negotiations on its nuclear program,” said Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle of Germany, whose country has been one of those trying to resolve the issue. He added that 2013 would be “decisive” for hopes of a diplomatic solution.

 

“From our point of view, announcing an accelerated expansion of uranium enrichment in Iran is the wrong signal,” Westerwelle said.

 

Biden underlined that “our policy is not containment – it is to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.”

 

The conference – an annual gathering of top security officials – also gave Biden an opportunity to address the civil war in Syria. He planned to hold separate meetings with Lavrov, international peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, and Syria’s top opposition leader, Moaz al-Khatib. Russia is a longtime ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

 

Biden stressed the conviction of the U.S. and many others that “President Assad – a tyrant hell-bent on clinging to power – is no longer fit to lead the Syrian people and he must go.” He said that “the opposition continues to grow stronger.”

 

Despite differences, “we can all agree on the increasingly deep plight of the Syrian people and the responsibility of the international community to address that plight,” he told an audience that included Lavrov.

 

But Lavrov fired back that “there are a lot of question marks about the Western approaches to those developments,” in the region, asking whether supporting antigovernment protesters justified terrorists, and questioning when it is “permissible to cooperate with regimes and when is it legitimate to argue for their removal.”

 

“We are all interested in the stability of the Mideast and the African continent,” and for governments to be democratic and peaceful, Lavrov said. “If we agree on these common objectives we could probably agree on some transparent and common rules for all actors to follow.”

 

Lavrov also suggested Biden’s statement that Assad must go was counterproductive.

 

“The persistence of those who say that priority number one is the removal of President Assad – I think it’s the single biggest reason for the continued tragedy in Syria.”