WarSclerotic

What will Chuck Hagel do about Iran’s plutonium production at Arak?.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 27, 2013, 6:38 AM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s heavy water plant at Arak

Chuck Hagel was swept into office Tuesday, Feb. 26 by a Senate majority as Barack Obama’s new defense secretary atop a cloud of disinformation which aimed to confirm that Iran’s nuclear program has gone too far to stop – like Iran’s grip on Syria and Lebanon. This message was accentuated by what the London Telegraph called Iran’s Plan B, signified by “…a cloud of steam that indicates heavy-water production for… a nuclear reactor that can produce plutonium, which could then be used to make a bomb.”

debkafile: The “cloud of steam” is no proof of an active plant; it could be just a trial run, but the timing of the British paper’s publication on the day of Hagel’s Senate endorsement and the Six-Power meeting with Iran in Kazkahstan to discuss its nuclear program, underscored the view of British Prime Minister David Cameron. He has said in private conversations that US President Obama, French President Francois Hollande and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu are pursuing an unrealistic policy on Iran and should accept the reality that Iran has achieved a nuclear bomb capacity. Sanctions are therefore pointless and futile and should be lifted.
The point contributed by the Telegraph – for the benefit of the incoming US defense secretary – was that Iran has achieved a dual track to an atomic bomb, which only goes to strengthen Cameron’s argument.

Just as unrealistically, the Kazakhstan talks focused on curtailing Iran’s uranium enrichment up to weapons grade, while Tehran was creeping up on the six powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) with its Plan B for producing a plutonium bomb.
It must also be said that the Arak plant and Iran’s plan for a plutonium weapon have been around for some time and were only brought into play now to support these arguments..
As for the rumors of Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah coming down with cancer and being flown to a hospital in Tehran – broadcast Tuesday, Feb. 26 – even assuming they were confirmed – prove nothing. HIzballah in fact strenuously denied the rumor Tuesday night.
If Nasrallah were to disappear tomorrow, Hizballah’s military, political, intelligence and terrorist arms,which are managed totally by Tehran, would simply carry on as before in Lebanon and Syria. And whatever fate may overtake even Syrian President Bashar Assad, Iran is too deeply entrenched in both countries to be dislodged.
The rumors of Nasrallah’s terminal illness come one month after the assassination of Gen. Hassan Shateri aka Hossam Khosh-Nevis, who was Iran’s overlord for Syria and Lebanon. They look very much like an attempt to undermine morale in Damascus and Beirut ahead of the March 5 negotiations opening in Moscow between the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition.
It is hardly likely that the Moscow-Tehran initiative for ending the Syrian war will be affected any more than images of a head of steam over Arak will halt Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s ‘Plan B’ for a nuclear bomb – Telegraph.

Iran is developing a second path to a nuclear weapons capability by operating a plant that could produce plutonium, satellite images show for the first time.

Water vapour, circled, is seen being emitted from forced air coolers at the Arak heavy water production plant earlier this month, showing that the facility is operational Photo: DigitalGlobe Inc/McKenzie Intelligence Ltd

For third time in 2 years, ‘Iran fails to launch satellite’ | The Times of Israel.

Report of latest setback comes a day after Israel successfully tests Arrow 3 missile interceptor

Iranian rocket launch (photo credit: Channel 2 Screen Shot)

For the third time in two years, Iran failed in an attempt to launch a satellite into space, western intelligence sources said Tuesday.

Iran was attempting to launch a home-produced satellite with photographic capabilities, but the rocket carrying it failed to perform as expected, and all contact with both the rocket and the satellite were lost after launch, according to the sources, quoted by Israel’s Channel 2.

Iran attempted the launch in secret about 10 days ago, and has been trying to cover up the failure, but the launch was registered by the western intelligence agencies, the report said.

News of the failed launch came on the day that Iran and the so-called P5+1 powers resumed negotiations over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, and the day after Israel successfully tested a new long-range missile interceptor in a joint drill with the US.

It also coincided with the first rocket fire into Israel from Gaza in three months — an upgraded Fajr-5 rocket which slammed into Ashkelon on Tuesday morning, causing no casualties. Some reports claimed Tuesday that Iranian experts are in Gaza helping Hamas and other Islamist terror groups improve their rocket and missile technology for use against Israel.

Monday’s trial of the Arrow 3 was described as a further improvement in Israel’s capacity to fend off an Iranian threat.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the Israeli technical skill, and the partnership with the US, involved in the system, which he said enabled the Israeli government to better protect its citizens.

Uzi Rubin, who oversaw the development of the entire Arrow system, said the Arrow 3 represented “the most sophisticated system of its kind” in the world.

The primary advantage of the Arrow 3 over its predecessor, the Arrow 2, is its ability to intercept enemy missiles at higher altitudes and to target non-conventional weapons of mass destruction. This is seen as particularly relevant amid concerns over the progress of Iran’s nuclear program.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the test was an “important milestone in Israel’s multi-layered protection system.”

The Defense Ministry said the Arrow 3 “flew an exo-atmospheric trajectory through space, in accordance with the test plan.”

The rocket, still in early stages of development, was not given a target to intercept.

Arrow 3 joins Arrow 2, Iron Dome and Magic Wand (also known as David’s Sling) in Israel’s “umbrella” defense against rocket threats. The Arrow 3 is expected to be deployed in 2016.

Sketch describing how the Arrow 3 missile interceptor works (courtesy: Israeli Ministry of Defense)

The interceptor system is being developed by Israel Aerospace Industries in conjunction with Boeing.

Israel has seen success with anti-missile systems over the past year, especially the Iron Dome short-range rocket interceptor, which was deployed against Gazan rockets during Operation Pillar of Defense.

The system proved effective during the November mini-war, intercepting 84 percent of the rockets fired from the Gaza Strip at residential areas in Israel’s south and center.

3 rules to understanding Iran – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: UK’s ambassador to Israel says his country will work unwaveringly to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes

Matthew Gould

Today (Tuesday) in Almaty negotiators from the P5 +1 will sit down with Iranian negotiators to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The facts are straightforward. Iran is flouting six United Nations resolutions and it continues to play games with the IAEA. The Iranian regime’s claims that its nuclear program is intended for purely civilian purposes are not credible given its ongoing efforts to expand its enrichment capacity. We, and our international partners, are clear that Iran cannot be allowed to get nuclear weapons.

The key question is how we stop Iran getting nuclear weapons. The UK believes that we need to carry on the current route – engaging with Iran and holding out the prospect of a better future if Iran takes the concrete steps needed to reassure the international community, and pressure through tough economic sanctions until Iran does so.

Ten years ago I was living in Iran, as Britain’s deputy ambassador. I dealt daily with the Iranian regime, travelled the country, and learned Persian history and culture. Iran is complicated and hard to understand. But I took away three lessons that are important now.

First, to understand Iran’s regime or attempt to predict how they will act, there is one cardinal rule. That in every decision the regime takes, they are focused on one overarching goal: To stay in power. One key reason they want nuclear capability is that they believe it will guarantee them their continuity in power.

Second, that the regime knows its economy is a huge vulnerability. It is inefficient, corrupt, badly managed and has millions of people paid directly or indirectly by the government. Without the regime’s oil income, it’s in trouble. That is why I believe that sanctions can work. We know that they are having a significant impact. The rial has collapsed in value. Unemployment is high. Inflation is rampant. The official inflation rate of 26% is an illusion; the true figure is double that. The cost of doing business with Iran has gone up dramatically. Iran’s ability to sell its own oil has been curtailed by British, US and European sanctions that make it almost impossible to conduct financial transactions with Iran.

Iran is not getting the technology it needs to sustain its own oil production, and production is down 45%, costing the Iranian exchequer over $40 billion a year. The reserves of the Iranian regime are shrinking. As David Cameron has said, the Iranian regime is under unprecedented pressure and faces an acute dilemma. They are leading their people to global isolation and an economic collapse. And they know it. And they also know that there is a simple way to bring sanctions to an end. By giving the international community the confidence it needs that Iran is not and will not develop a nuclear weapon.

Some people say that sanctions have failed, because Iran has not yet changed course on its nuclear program. It is certainly true that despite the effect of sanctions, Iranian centrifuges are still spinning. But it is more correct to say the sanctions have not yet succeeded. This is my third lesson I took away from Iran – you don’t know when they are going to change direction, until it happens. In 2003, when Iran last suspended its nuclear enrichment program, no one saw it coming. In 1989 when they decided to seek a ceasefire to end their war with Iraq, it was not signaled in advance. So the fact that Iran has not changed course in the face of sanctions so far does not mean it will not do so.

I am certain that for now, our best bet is to hold our nerve and continue down the path we are on. We continue to test Iranian willingness to negotiate in good faith. And until they take the concrete steps we need to see, we continue to implement ever tougher sanctions.

The UK remains firmly committed to reaching a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear issue with Iran. We do not advocate the use of military action, but Foreign Secretary William Hague has made clear that no option is off the table. A nuclear armed Iran is a threat to Israel, and a threat to the world, and the UK will work unwaveringly to prevent that from happening.

Matthew Gould is Britain’s ambassador to Israel

US Senate confirms Hagel as secretary of defense – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Senators back Obama’s controversial nomination by 57-41 vote. Sen. Coats: He has an embarrassing lack of knowledge about our Iran policy

News agencies

The US Senate voted to confirm Chuck Hagel on Tuesday as President Barack Obama’s new secretary of defense.

Senators backed the nomination by a 58-41 vote, with only four Republicans joining Democrats in support of Hagel, a Republican former US senator from Nebraska.

Hagel needed only 51 votes to be confirmed as the new civilian leader at the Pentagon.

The vote ended a contentious fight over the president’s choice for his second-term national security team.

Republicans opposed the former 12-year Republican senator casting him as out of the mainstream and overly critical of Israel. But Democrats stood together for Hagel, a twice-wounded Vietnam combat veteran.

The vote came just hours after Republicans dropped their delay and allowed the nomination to move forward. The Senate vote to end the delaying maneuver known as a filibuster was 71-27. Eighteen Republicans joined 51 Democrats and two independents to move forward with the contentious nomination.

Hagel will succeed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and join Obama’s retooled national security team of Secretary of State John Kerry and CIA Director-designate John Brennan.

Hagel’s nomination bitterly split the Senate.

The president got no points with the Republican Party for tapping the former two-term senator. Republican lawmakers turned on their former colleague, calling Hagel too critical of Israel and too compromising with Iran. They cast the Nebraskan as a radical far out of the mainstream.

Republicans argued that while Hagel served with distinction in Vietnam, his record on Israel, Iran and nuclear weapons disqualified him for the top Pentagon job. Last week, 15 Republican senators sent a letter to Obama asking him to withdraw the Hagel nomination.

Republican Sen. Dan Coats cited Hagel’s at-times halting testimony at his confirmation hearing and his misstatement that the US has a policy of containment toward Iran rather than thwarting Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

“He has an embarrassing lack of knowledge about our policy toward Iran,” Coats said.

In the course of the rancorous, seven-week nomination fight, Republicans have insinuated that Hagel has a cozy relationship with Iran and received payments for speeches from extreme or radical groups. Those comments have drawn a rebuke from Democrats and some Republicans.

Hagel (center) during confirmation hearing (Photo: EPA)

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, a Democrat, dismissed the “unfair innuendoes” against Hagel and called him an “outstanding American patriot” whose background as an enlisted soldier would send a positive message to the nation’s servicemen and women.

Republican Sen. John McCain clashed with his onetime friend over his opposition to President George W. Bush’s decision to send an extra 30,000 troops to Iraq in 2007 at a point when the war seemed in danger of being lost. Hagel, who voted to authorize military force in Iraq, later opposed the conflict, comparing it to Vietnam and arguing that it shifted the focus from Afghanistan.

McCain called Hagel unqualified for the Pentagon job even though he once described him as fit for a Cabinet post.

Republicans also challenged Hagel about a May 2012 study that he co-authored for the advocacy group Global Zero, which called for an 80 percent reduction of US nuclear weapons and the eventual elimination of all the world’s nuclear arms.

The group argued that with the Cold War over, the United States could reduce its total nuclear arsenal to 900 without sacrificing security. Currently, the US and Russia have about 5,000 warheads each, either deployed or in reserve. Both countries are on track to reduce their deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 by 2018, the number set in the New START treaty that the Senate ratified in December 2010.

In an echo of the 2012 presidential campaign, Hagel faced an onslaught of criticism by well-funded, Republican-leaning outside groups that labeled the former senator “anti-Israel” and pressured senators to oppose the nomination. The groups ran television and print ads criticizing Hagel.

Opponents were particularly incensed by Hagel’s use of the term “Jewish lobby” to refer to pro-Israel groups. He apologized, saying he should have used another term and should not have said those groups have intimidated members of the Senate into favoring actions contrary to US interests.

The nominee spent weeks reaching out to members of the Senate, meeting individually with lawmakers to address their concerns and seeking to reassure them about his policies.

Hagel’s inconsistent performance during some eight hours of testimony at this confirmation hearing last month undercut his cause, but it wasn’t a fatal blow.

On Feb. 12, a divided Senate Armed Services Committee approved the nomination on a party-line vote of 14-11.

Two days later, a Democratic move to vote on the nomination fell a few votes short as Republicans insisted they needed more time to consider the Hagel pick. The nomination also became entangled in Republican demands for more information about the deadly assault on the US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya last September.

Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans were killed in that attack.

Reuters, AP contributed to the report