Archive for February 26, 2013

Rocket hits outskirts of Ahskelon; none injured

February 26, 2013

Rocket hits outskirts of Ahskelon; none injured – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Grad rocket hits road in southern city’s industrial zone for first time since Operation Pillar of Defense. al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claim responsibility

Neri Brenner

Latest Update: 02.26.13, 10:39 / Israel News

A Grad rocket fired from Gaza landed on the outskirts of Ahskelon. No injuries were reported.

The rocket landed on a road in the city’s industrial zone, causing some damage. This was the first time a rocket has been fired from Gaza at Israel since the conclusion of Operation Pillar of Defense in November.

The al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, Fatah’s military wing, have claimed responsibility for the fire.

In a statement carried by the Palestinian Maan agency, the Gaza-based terror group said that the fire was its response to the death of Palestinian security prisoner Arafat Jaradat in Megiddo Prison on Saturday.

“Freedom will be achieved through sacrifice. We must fight the enemy with all means necessary. The resistance will continue,” the statement said.
רכבי ביטחון מדרום לאשקלון, הבוקר (צילום: רועי עידן)

The road hit by the rocket (Photo: Roee Idan)

The Color Red alert failed to sound prior to the incident. A military source told Ynet that the system recognized the launch as aimed at an open area, which does not trigger the sirens.

The Iron Dome battery that was stationed in the area during the operation has since been redeployed.

The IDF said that “Iron Dome batteries are deployed and redeployed according to situation assessments and operational needs.”

The defense establishment is scheduled to hold a situation assessment later on Tuesday

Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad told Ynet that, “Overall, our deterrence in the south is in place and peace in the area has been maintained, thanks to the IDF’s successful operation.

“We do, however, have to remain vigilant to ensure no threat arises. This was a single event, but we have to make sure that peace and quiet are maintained.”

Security forces have expressed concern that the growing unrest in the West Bank may prompt the Gaza terror groups to resume their rocket fire on Israel’s south.

 November’s military campaign ended with an Egyptian-brokered armistice and various understandings between Israel and Hamas, meant to maintain agreement.

The past few weeks have seen acceleration in the indirect talks between Hamas, Egypt and Israel in an attempt to galvanize the ceasefire agreement.

Several Israeli defense delegations have traveled to Cairo to that effect, while the Egyptians have stepped up their effort to curtail weapons smuggling into Gaza Strip.

Powers to offer Iran sanctions relief at nuclear talks

February 26, 2013

Powers to offer Iran sanctions relief at nuclear talks – Israel News, Ynetnews.

As fresh nuclear negotiations begin in Kazakhstan, West is poised to offer defiant Islamic Republic various mitigations in order to breach deadlock, curb atom work; but chances for breakthrough are slim

Reuters

Latest Update: 02.26.13, 11:38 / Israel News

World powers began talks with Iran on its nuclear program in the Kazakh city of Almaty on Tuesday, in a fresh attempt to resolve a decade-old standoff that threatens the Middle East with a new war.

The six – the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany and France – are expected to offer Tehran some sanctions relief if it curbs work that they suspect is intended to produce material for nuclear weapons, which threatens to trigger another war in the Middle East.”There is still time but there is only time if Iran makes the decision to come to the table and negotiate in good faith.”

Iran insists its nuclear endeavors are for peaceful purposes.

In their first meeting in eight months – time that Iran has used to expand atomic activity that the West suspects is aimed at developing a bomb capability – the powers hope Iran will engage in serious talks on finding a diplomatic solution. Still, no real breakthrough is expected at the talks.

But with the Islamic Republic’s political elite pre-occupied with worsening internal infighting ahead of a June presidential election, few believe the meeting Tuesday and Wednesday will yield any real results.

At best, diplomats and analysts say, Iran will take the joint offer from the United States, Russia, France, Germany, Britain and China seriously and agree to hold further talks soon on how to implement practical steps to ease the tension.

“What we would like to see tomorrow is recognition by our Iranian colleagues that our offer is a serious one… but it is not the final act in the play,” said one diplomat participating in the talks. “I wouldn’t predict a decisive breakthrough.”

Iran is showing no sign, however, of backing down over a nuclear program, which has drawn tough Western sanctions that have greatly reduced its oil exports, an economic lifeline.

Iran is reportedly gearing to offer a “comprehensive package of proposals” of its own, Tehran’s state-run Press TV reported. It said the proposals may change depending on offers from the P5+1 group of nations. The report gave no details of the proposals.

  A UN nuclear watchdog report last week said Iran was for the first time installing advanced centrifuges that would allow it to significantly speed up its enrichment of uranium, which can have both civilian and military purposes.

Western officials say the powers’ offer – an updated version of one rejected by Iran in the last meeting in June – would include an easing of sanctions of trade in gold and other precious metals if Tehran closes its Fordo enrichment plant.

“The window for a diplomatic solution simply cannot by definition remain open forever. But it is open today. It is open now,” US Secretary of State John Kerry told a news conference in London this week.

 

‘Obama to tell Netanyahu US gearing up for Iran strike’

February 26, 2013

‘Obama to tell Netanyahu US gearing up for Iran strike’ | The Times of Israel.

During upcoming visit, president will convey message that window for American military operation opens in June, TV report says

February 25, 2013, 11:22 pm
US President Barack Obama (photo credit: Carolyn Kaster/AP)

US President Barack Obama (photo credit: Carolyn Kaster/AP)

When he visits Israel next month, US President Barack Obama will tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a “window of opportunity” for a military strike on Iran will open in June, according to an Israeli TV report Monday evening.

Obama will come bearing the message that if diplomatic efforts and sanctions don’t bear fruit, Israel should “sit tight” and let Washington take the stage, even if that means remaining on the sidelines during a US military operation, Channel 10 reported. Netanyahu will be asked to refrain from any military action and keep a low profile, avoiding even the mention of a strike, the report said, citing unnamed officials.

In London Monday, Secretary of State John Kerry said an Iran with nuclear weapons was “simply unacceptable” and warned the time limit for a diplomatic solution was running out.

“As we have repeatedly made clear, the window for a diplomatic solution simply cannot remain open forever,” said Kerry, on his first international tour as America’s top diplomat. “But it is open today. It is open now and there is still time, but there is only time if Iran makes the decision to come to the table and to negotiate in good faith.

“We are prepared to negotiate in good faith, in mutual respect, in an effort to avoid whatever terrible consequences could follow failure, and so the choice really is in the hands of the Iranians. And we hope they will make the right choice,” Kerry added.

A fresh round of high-level diplomatic talks were set to begin Tuesday in Kazakhstan — the first since last June’s meeting in Moscow failed to convince Iran to stop enriching uranium to a level close to that used for nuclear warheads.

Two weeks ago, Netanyahu said he was looking forward to Obama’s visit and insisted that he enjoyed a positive relationship with the American president, despite reports to the contrary. 

“We worked together closely, closer than how it may look. We worked together on security, diplomacy and intelligence,” he said, warning that Iran’s nuclear weapons program “continues unabated” and that “they’ll soon have enough material to produce a nuclear bomb.”

Netanyahu said earlier this month that he and Obama had agreed on three key areas of consultation during the presidential visit — thwarting Iran’s nuclear drive, grappling with the instability in Syria and the risks of WMD there falling into rogue hands, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Israeli army says prepared to stop transfer of weapons to Hezbollah | News , Politics | THE DAILY STAR

February 26, 2013

Israeli army says prepared to stop transfer of weapons to Hezbollah

February 25, 2013 02:04 AM

The Daily Star

Israeli vehicles patrol the northern border Israeli town of Metulla as U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese soldiers secure the area in the border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, Wednesday, March 7, 2012. (The Daily Star/Mohammed Zaatari)

Israeli vehicles patrol the northern border Israeli town of Metulla as U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese soldiers secure the area in the border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, Wednesday, March 7, 2012. (The Daily Star/Mohammed Zaatari)

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BEIRUT: A high-ranking Israeli army officer said Sunday that Israel was ready to stop the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah if the Syrian regime fell.

Maj. Gen. Sami Turgeman, the outgoing Ground Forces commander, told Israel’s Army Radio station “our assessment is that the regime [of Syrian President Bashar Assad] will fall. We are in a race against the clock to improve our response to such an occurrence. We have forces prepared and ready for action.”

Turgeman, who will now head up Israel’s Southern Command, said the Israeli army was looking closely at whether “strategic” weapons would be transferred to Hezbollah or extremist organizations in Syria.

Turgeman said a future war with Lebanon would be different than previous battles.

“It will be a hard one [war]. It will involve a great amount of units, attacks during the day and night, [and] very massive attacks. It would be very hard for our citizens, but much harder for the other side.”

If this war were to occur, Turgeman told the radio station that it was important to remember “the Iron Dome [missile defense system] won’t be able to protect everyone. So a ground operation would be important in countering the threat of missiles.”

Earlier this month, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said that the group was fully equipped to face Israel in any upcoming war, even without the the help of its allies Syria and Iran.

“The resistance in Lebanon is fully equipped. We have everything we need here in Lebanon, and we don’t need to transport anything from Syria and Iran,” Nasrallah said.

An article from Israeli Army Radio said one of Turgeman’s main tasks as Ground Forces commander was to ready the army for a potential war with Lebanon, following perceived failures by the Israeli Army in the 2006 war.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on February 25, 2013, on page 3.

via Israeli army says prepared to stop transfer of weapons to Hezbollah | News , Politics | THE DAILY STAR.

The coming collapse of Iran sanctions – Opinion – Al Jazeera English

February 26, 2013

The coming collapse of Iran sanctions – Opinion – Al Jazeera English.

The coming collapse of Iran sanctions

Imposing secondary sanctions on non-US entities transacting with Iran could backfire on Washington if implemented.
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2013 15:32
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Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, the United States has imposed unilateral sanctions against the nation [Reuters]
Western policymakers and commentators wrongly assume that sanctions will force Iranian concessions in nuclear talks that resume next week in Kazakhstan – or perhaps even undermine the Islamic Republic’s basic stability in advance of the next Iranian presidential election in June.

Besides exaggerating sanctions’ impact on Iranian attitudes and decision-making, this argument ignores potentially fatal flaws in the US-led sanctions regime itself – flaws highlighted by ongoing developments in Europe and Asia, and that are likely to prompt the erosion, if not outright collapse of America’s sanctions policy.

Virtually since the 1979 Iranian revolution, US administrations have imposed unilateral sanctions against the Islamic Republic. These measures, though, have not significantly damaged Iran’s economy and have certainly not changed Iranian policies Washington doesn’t like.

Between 2006 and 2010, America got the UN Security Council to adopt six resolutions authorising multilateral sanctions against Iran – also with limited impact, because China and Russia refused to allow any resolution to pass that would have harmed their interests in Iran.

Beyond unilateral and multilateral measures against Iran’s economy, the US has, since 1996, threatened to impose “secondary” sanctions against third-country entities doing business with the Islamic Republic. In recent years, Congress has dramatically expanded the range of activities subject to such sanctions, going beyond investments in Iranian oil and gas production to include simple purchases of Iranian crude and almost all financial transactions.

This year, Congress blacklisted transfers of precious metals to Iran, to make it harder for Tehran to repatriate export earnings or pay for imports in gold. Congress has also increased the sanctions that can be imposed on offending entities, including their cut-off from the US financial system.

Secondary sanctions

Secondary sanctions are a legal and political house of cards. They almost certainly violate American commitments under the World Trade Organisation, which allows members to cut trade with states they deem national security threats but not to sanction other members over lawful business conducted in third countries. If challenged on the issue in the WTO’s Dispute Resolution Mechanism, Washington would surely lose.

India aims to cash in on Iran sanctions

Consequently, US administrations have been reluctant to impose secondary sanctions on non-US entities transacting with Iran. In 1998, the Clinton administration waived sanctions against a consortium of European, Russian and Asian companies developing an Iranian gas field; over the next decade, Washington declined to make determinations whether other non-US companies’ Iranian activities were sanctionable.

The Obama administration now issues blanket waivers for countries continuing to buy Iranian oil, even when it is questionable they are really reducing their purchases.

Still, legal and reputational risks posed by the threat of US secondary sanctions have reduced the willingness of companies and banks in many countries to transact with Iran, with negative consequences for its oil export volumes, the value of its currency and other dimensions of its economic life.

Last year, the European Union – which for years had condemned America’s prospective “extraterritorial” application of national trade law and warned it would go to the WTO’s Dispute Resolution Mechanism if Washington ever sanctioned European firms over Iran-related business – finally subordinated its Iran policy to American preferences, banning Iranian oil and imposing close to a comprehensive economic embargo against the Islamic Republic.

In recent weeks, however, Europe’s General Court overturned European sanctions against two of Iran’s biggest banks, ruling that the EU never substantiated its claims that the banks provided “financial services for entities procuring on behalf of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes”.

The European Council has two months to respond – but removing sanctions against the banks would severely weaken Europe’s sanctions regime. Other major players in Iran’s economy, including the Central Bank of Iran and the National Iranian Oil Company, are now challenging their own sanctioned status.

On the other side of the world, America is on a collision course with China over sanctions. In recent years, Beijing has tried to accommodate US concerns about Iran. It has not developed trade and investment positions there as rapidly as it might have, and has shifted some Iran-related transactional flows into renminbito to help the Obama administration avoid sanctioning Chinese banks (similarly, India now pays for some Iranian oil imports in rupees).

Whether Beijing has really lowered its aggregate imports of Iranian oil is unclear – but it clearly reduces them when the administration is deciding about six-month sanctions waivers for countries buying Iranian crude.

The administration is taking its own steps to forestall a Sino-American conflict over sanctions. Besides issuing waivers for oil imports, the one Chinese bank Washington has barred from the US financial system for Iran-related transactions is a subsidiary of a Chinese energy company – a subsidiary with no business in the US.

However, as Congress enacts additional layers of secondary sanctions, President Obama’s room to manoeuver is being progressively reduced. Therein lies the looming policy train wreck.

Middle East strategy

If, at congressional insistence, the administration later this year demands that China sharply cut Iranian oil imports and that Chinese banks stop virtually any Iran-related transactions, Beijing will say no. If Washington retreats, the deterrent effect of secondary sanctions will erode rapidly. Iran’s oil exports are rising again, largely from Chinese demand.

“If Washington sanctions major Chinese banks and energy companies, Beijing will respond… by retaliating against US companies in China.”

Once it becomes evident Washington won’t seriously impose secondary sanctions, growth in Iranian oil shipments to China and other non-Western economies (for example, India and South Korea) will accelerate. Likewise, non-Western powers are central to Iran’s quest for alternatives to US-dominated mechanisms for conducting and settling international transactions – a project that will also gain momentum after Washington’s bluff is called.

Conversely, if Washington sanctions major Chinese banks and energy companies, Beijing will respond – at least by taking America to the WTO’s Dispute Resolution Mechanism (where China will win), perhaps by retaliating against US companies in China.

Chinese policymakers are increasingly concerned Washington is reneging on its part of the core bargain that grounded Sino-American rapprochement in the 1970s – to accept China’s relative economic and political rise and not try to secure a hegemonic position in Asia.

Beijing is already less willing to work in the Security Council on a new (even watered-down) sanctions resolution and more willing to resist US initiatives that, in its view, challenge Chinese interests (witness China’s vetoes of three US-backed resolutions on Syria).

In this context, Chinese leaders will not accept American high-handedness on Iran sanctions. At this point, Beijing has more ways to impose costs on America for violations of international economic law that impinge on Chinese interests than Washington has levers to coerce China’s compliance.

As America’s sanctions policy unravels, President Obama will have to decide whether to stay on a path of open-ended hostility toward Iran that ultimately leads to another US-initiated war in the Middle East, or develop a very different vision for America’s Middle East strategy – a vision emphasising genuine diplomacy with Tehran, rooted in American acceptance of the Islamic Republic as a legitimate political order representing legitimate national interests and aimed at fundamentally realigning US-Iranian relations.

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett are authors of Going to Tehran: Why the United States Must Come to Terms with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and teach international relations, he at Penn State, she at American University.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.

Iran Enters Nuclear Talks in a Defiant Mood – NYTimes.com

February 26, 2013

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Iran Signaling Hard Line in Nuclear Talks

By THOMAS ERDBRINK

Published: February 25, 2013

 

TEHRAN — When Iran’s nuclear negotiating team sits down with its Western counterparts in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on Tuesday, it will offer no new plans or suggestions, people familiar with the views of the Iranian leadership say. More likely, they say, the Iranian negotiators will sit with arms crossed, demanding a Western change of heart.

 

Iran’s leaders believe that the effects of Western sanctions have been manageable, and Iran continues to make progress on what it says is a peaceful nuclear energy program. And Iran’s leaders see that North Korea, which openly admits that it wants nuclear weapons, has performed three nuclear tests without suffering any real penalties.

As a result, Iran’s leaders feel that they, not the West, hold the upper hand in negotiations. “The West has no option but stopping to threaten Iran and reduce sanctions,” said Kazem Anbarloui, the editor in chief of the state newspaper Resalat, who was appointed by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “But it seems they just want to talk for the sake of talks.”

Further signaling that they expect a grand gesture, Iranian officials last week turned down a Western proposal to gradually lift sanctions on trading in gold in return for the closing of a mountain bunker enrichment facility called Fordo. They said the site, which is under an inspection regime by the United Nations nuclear watchdog, would never be shut down, because it afforded protection against attacks, particularly from Israel.

“Such a proposal would only help the Zionist regime to threaten our facilities,” an influential lawmaker, Ala’edin Borujerdi, told reporters. “They would never dare to attack us, but why would we tempt them?”

In recent days, dozens of Iranian politicians have made defiant statements, urging the United States and other nations to accept Iranian nuclear “realities,” which means unconditional acceptance of Iran’s nuclear energy program.

“If they want constructive negotiations, it’s better this time they come with a new strategy and credible proposals,” the top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, told reporters before he left for Kazakhstan.

As a sign of their resistance to Western pressures, Iranian officials on Saturday announced the mass installment of higher-yielding enrichment centrifuges, said they had discovered new uranium mines, and designated new sites for future nuclear projects.

“You should raise the level of your tolerance,” Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said on Saturday. “Try to find ways for cooperation with a country that is moving towards technological progress.”

On Sunday, Iranian lawmakers signed a petition urging their negotiating team to defend national interests in Almaty. “The West must learn that Iran’s nuclear train, which moves on the rails of peaceful goals, will never stop,” the petition read, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency.

At the same time, a former top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, who is currently the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, stressed that reports by the United Nations watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, had no effect on the “will and determination of the Iranian nation.”

Iranian officials do not deny that the sanctions have had an impact — Iran’s oil sales have fallen by more than half because of sanctions, and the national currency lost more than 40 percent of its value in 2012, amid the international isolation of its central bank. But they say they are confident that the country can withstand any hardships the West imposes.

“The U.S. government is imposing all its power to impose pressure on us; they tell other countries not to trade with us,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Saturday. “We will pass this situation.”

Ayatollah Khamenei gave much the same message in two addresses this month. “If the Iranian people had wanted to surrender to the Americans, they would not have carried out a revolution,” he said in a meeting at his home, which was broadcast by the Iranian news media. “The people, particularly the underprivileged classes, truly feel the hardships. But they do not separate themselves from the Islamic Republic, because they know that the Islamic Republic and the dear Islam are the powerful hands which can solve the problems.”

In elevators, in private taxis and at family parties in the Iranian capital, many hope that the talks in Almaty will bring an end to the decade-long nuclear standoff. But few expect much. “Both the U.S. and our leaders will never give in,” said one judge who did not want his name mentioned because of the nature of his work. “There can only be one winner and one loser; no compromise.”

Ramtin Rastin contributed reporting.

via Iran Enters Nuclear Talks in a Defiant Mood – NYTimes.com.

World powers eye easing tough sanctions on Iran in reconciliatory bid to nuclear negotiations – The Washington Post

February 26, 2013

World powers eye easing tough sanctions on Iran in reconciliatory bid to nuclear negotiations – The Washington Post.

 

World powers eye easing tough sanctions on Iran in reconciliatory bid to nuclear negotiations

(Pavel Mikheyev/ Associated Press ) - Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, left, shakes hands with Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev prior their talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, Monday, Feb. 25, 2013. Iran and six world powers, five permanent U.N. Security council members and Germany, are set to hold talks in Kazakhstan this week on Tehran’s controversial nuclear program.

 

ALMATY, Kazakhstan — World powers, fearful of scuttling negotiations beginning this week with Iran, are offering the Islamic republic some small new sanctions relief in return for curbing its nuclear program. But officials warned Monday that it’s unlikely that any compromise will be reached soon.Negotiators set low expectations for the latest round of high-level diplomatic talks to begin Tuesday in Kazakhstan’s largest city — the first since last June’s meeting in Moscow that threatened to derail delicate efforts to convince Iran to stop enriching uranium to a level close to that used for nuclear warheads.

Both sides will have new leadership. How will they address growing strains?

 

The stakes couldn’t be higher: the Obama administration is pushing for diplomacy to solve the impasse but has not ruled out the possibility of military intervention in Iran to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And Israel has threatened it will use all means to stop Iran from being able to building a bomb, potentially as soon as this summer, raising the specter of a possible Mideast war.Tehran maintains it is enriching uranium only to make reactor fuel and medical isotopes, and insists it has a right to do so under international law. It has signaled it does not intend to stop, despite harsh international sanctions on its oil and financial sectors, and U.N. nuclear inspectors last week confirmed Iran has begun a major upgrade of its program at the country’s main uranium enrichment site.The clerical regime’s refusal frustrates the international community, which has responded by slapping Iran with a host of economic sanctions that U.S. officials said have, among other things, cut the nation’s daily oil output by 1 million barrels and slashed its employment rate. But, in a twist, negotiators now hope that easing some of the sanctions will make Tehran more agreeable to halting production of 20 percent enriched uranium — the highest grade of enrichment that Iran has acknowledged and one that experts say could be turned into warhead grade in a matter of months.Negotiators from the six world powers — United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — also want Iran to suspend enrichment in its underground Fordo nuclear facility, and to ship its stockpile of high-grade uranium out of the country.

“We are pleased that they have come together for talks because it’s been eight months since Moscow. We wanted to come together for talks earlier than this,” said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is leading the negotiations. “What’s important to us is that they engage in these negotiations and take seriously what we’ve put on the table.

“No one is expecting everyone to walk out of here with a deal, but if we can have some forward momentum and they can show a willingness to take a confidence-building step, that’s very important,” Mann told reporters on Monday. He described the world powers’ newest gambit as “a good offer” but declined to say what it would include.

A senior U.S. official at the talks said some sanctions relief would be part of the offer to Iran but also refused to detail it. The new relief is part of a package that the U.S. official said included “substantive changes — whether you’d call them super-substantial, I’ll leave to history.” The official acknowledged reports earlier this month that sanctions would be eased to allow Iran’s gold trade to progress, but would neither confirm nor deny they are included in the new relief offer, and spoke only on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomatic talks more candidly.

World powers eye easing tough sanctions on Iran in reconciliatory bid to nuclear negotiations

(Pavel Mikheyev/ Associated Press ) - Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, left, shakes hands with Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev prior their talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, Monday, Feb. 25, 2013. Iran and six world powers, five permanent U.N. Security council members and Germany, are set to hold talks in Kazakhstan this week on Tehran’s controversial nuclear program.

 

Both sides will have new leadership. How will they address growing strains?

Iran has been unimpressed with earlier offers by the powers to provide it with medical isotopes and lift sanctions on spare parts for civilian airliners, and new bargaining chips that Tehran sees as minor are likely to be snubbed as well. Iran insists, as a starting point, that world powers must recognize the republic’s right to enrich uranium.

In a sign that Tehran is in no hurry to reach a compromise, Iran’s foreign minister has no plans to meet with officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency Tuesday when he visits Vienna to attend an unrelated conference. Diplomats in Vienna suggested the decision by Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi reflects a deadlock on the agency’s attempts to probe Tehran’s atomic work. IAEA officials recently suggested related talks needed to pause after dragging on without results. The diplomats demanded anonymity because their information was confidential.

Still, last week, Salehi spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said the Almaty talks could provide an important “opportunity” so long as the two sides were dealing with each other as equals and making offers of “same level, same weight.”

“We will offer ways for removing possible concerns and ambiguities to show our goodwill, if Western countries, especially the U.S., fully recognize the nuclear rights of countries, which shows their goodwill,” Mehmanparast told reporters in Tehran.

In London, Secretary of State John Kerry said an Iran with nuclear weapons was “simply unacceptable” and warned the time limit for a diplomatic solution was running out.

“As we have repeatedly made clear, the window for a diplomatic solution simply cannot remain open forever,” said Kerry, on his first international tour as America’s top diplomat. “But it is open today. It is open now and there is still time but there is only time if Iran makes the decision to come to the table and to negotiate in good faith. We are prepared to negotiate in good faith, in mutual respect, in an effort to avoid whatever terrible consequences could follow failure and so the choice really is in the hands of the Iranians. And we hope they will make the right choice.”

An analysis released Monday by the International Crisis Group concluded that the web of international sanctions have become so entrenched in Iran’s political and economic systems that they cannot be easily lifted piece-by-piece. It found that Tehran’s clerical regime has begun adapting its policy to the sanctions, despite their crippling effect on the Iranian public. Doing so, the analysis concluded, has divided the public’s anger “between a regime viewed as incompetent and an outside world seen as uncaring.”

“As far as Iran is concerned, it is too late to reverse course. The massive sanctions regime is in place, warts and all, and not about to be removed,” the analysis concluded. It recommended that the world powers “devise a package of incentives, including some less than complete degree of relief, that is politically as well as legally achievable and that genuinely addresses Iranian concerns.”

Several diplomats in Almaty said any major breakthrough in the negotiations likely won’t come until after Iran’s presidential elections in June — especially if the world powers refuse to offer anything that Tehran can use to show as some kind of major concession by the West.

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Associated Press Writers Peter Leonard, George Jahn in Vienna and Cassandra Vinograd in London contributed to this report. Follow Lara Jakes on Twitter at http://twitter.com/larajakesAP

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