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Bush deputy national security adviser: Syrian crisis ‘would be even more dangerous’ had Israel not destroyed nuclear reactor in 2007 | The Daily Caller.

Posted By Jamie Weinstein On 12:44 AM 02/12/2013 @ 12:44 AM In DC Exclusives – Original Reporting,Uncategorized,World |

Elliott Abrams, former deputy national security adviser to President George. W. Bush, says the current turmoil in Syria could have been significantly more dangerous had Israel fallen in line with the Bush administration’s decision not to act militarily against Syria’s covert nuclear program in 2007.

“Israel took out the Syrian reactor in September 2007, five and a half years ago. Had it not done so that reactor would be active, and Syria might have moved forward toward a nuclear weapon — with additional Iranian and North Korean help,” Abrams, author of the recently released book “Tested by Zion: The Bush Administration and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,” told The Daily Caller in an interview.

“After all, the reactor itself was an exact copy of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyan. So in addition to our worries about Syria’s chemical and biological weapons, we would be wondering if there are nuclear weapons, and how to secure a good deal of enriched uranium. The crisis would be even more dangerous.”

In his new book, Abrams, who is currently senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, take readers behind the scenes of the Bush administration’s handling of the surprise discovery in 2007 that Syria was building a nuclear reactor with the help of North Korea.

Israel brought the intelligence to the Bush administration in May of that year. After American intelligence confirmed the information, the Bush administration debated internally over what to do. President Bush ultimately decided not to act military but take the matter to the United Nations — though he left open the possibility of force if diplomacy failed.

Israel, however, thought the risk posed by the secret Syrian nuclear program was too threatening to its security to trust the international community to deal with it, and successfully acted unilaterally to destroy the reactor in September 2007.

In the aftermath of the strike, Israel and American officials remained mum on the operation, hoping that by not boasting about the strike, Syrian dictator Basher al-Assad would be able to save face and not be humiliated into retaliating. The strategy worked.

In fact, “[t]hat strike seems to have made the Syrians more, not less, desirous of talking to the Israelis because it made them afraid of American power,” Abrams writes in the book.

Abrams says there are lessons to be drawn about the Israeli strike on Syria’s nuclear program that pertain to the current debate in Washington over a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear program.

“The lesson I draw is that predictions about an inevitable and gigantic Middle East war if anyone strikes the Iranian nuclear sites are unpersuasive,” Abrams said.

“Syria considered the possible gains and losses from striking back, and did not do so. Iran’s rulers will make the same calculations, and the options it faces ‘the day after’ are not very good. For one thing, the Syrians viewed the attack as a sign of Israeli and American strength, and that scared them; they did not want to respond in any way that might elicit a further attack. Iran might have the same reaction, because an attack would show we are not afraid of them — and might make them more afraid of us.”

But Abrams says he believes “we are some distance away” from when American and Israeli leaders will have to weigh whether a military strike to set back Iran’s nuclear program is necessary.

“Iran does not seem, for now, to be sprinting toward the bomb, because it does not want to force our hand or Israel’s,” he said. “They are moving forward steadily, not rushing. It is possible that 2013 is the year of decision, or that a decision could be put off into 2014.”

See TheDC’s full interview with Abrams about his book, the Middle East and his opposition to defense secretary nominee Chuck Hagel.

What will readers get from reading this book?

First, readers will get the inside story of our relations with Israel and the Palestinians for those 8 years [of the Bush administration]. They’ll be at the meetings, from the White House to the foreign ministries and palaces in the Middle East, on the phone calls between President Bush and foreign leaders, and see how our policies really developed. Second, they’ll see how our government really works — The State department, National Security Council, Pentagon, CIA, and how they work together or fail to do so. This is a story, not a textbook, so they will see all of this through moments of crisis, vignettes, and personalities.

What strengths did you observe in George W. Bush’s leadership style? What weaknesses did you observe?

One great strength was Bush’s appreciation that a leader — especially after a crisis like 9/11 — has to show strength, solidity, calm and belief in the country. He cannot show doubt and anguish; he has to keep his staff, his government, and the country believing that he is OK and the country is going to come through this well. His unfailing courtesy and good humor brought his own team through very tough times.

The main weakness I write about in the book is his reliance on a system that very often homogenized the views that were presented to him, instead of presenting disagreements among Cabinet members to him for resolution. Too often when there were disagreements over policy, there were efforts to find a consensus — when it seemed to me he should insist on knowing about the disagreement and why key officials did not see eye to eye.

You discuss in your book at length the debate over what to do about the Syrian nuclear reactor that was being built with the help of the North Koreans. Ultimately, President Bush decided not to launch a strike to destroy it but instead pursue a diplomatic effort to shut it down. If Israel did not act against the wishes of the U.S. to take out Syria’s nuclear reactor, what would the world be facing in Syria today?

Israel took out the Syrian reactor in September 2007, five and a half years ago. Had it not done so that reactor would be active, and Syria might have moved forward toward a nuclear weapon — with additional Iranian and North Korean help. After all, the reactor itself was an exact copy of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyan. So in addition to our worries about Syria’s chemical and biological weapons, we would be wondering if there are nuclear weapons, and how to secure a good deal of enriched uranium. The crisis would be even more dangerous.

You note that Israel’s strategy of destroying the Syrian nuclear site and then not talking about it worked in so far as it allowed the Syrian regime to quietly accept the attack and not retaliate. In fact, you write that the attack may have actually made the Syrians more desirous of talking to Israel. Are there any lessons we can draw from that on dealing with the Iran and its nuclear program?

The lesson I draw is that predictions about an inevitable and gigantic Middle East war if anyone strikes the Iranian nuclear sites are unpersuasive. Syria considered the possible gains and losses from striking back, and did not do so. Iran’s rulers will make the same calculations, and the options it faces “the day after” are not very good. For one thing, the Syrians viewed the attack as a sign of Israeli and American strength, and that scared them; they did not want to respond in any way that might elicit a further attack. Iran might have the same reaction, because an attack would show we are not afraid of them — and might make them more afraid of us.

Speaking of Iran, do you foresee an attack on their nuclear installations, either by the U.S. or Israel, in the near future? Or are we still some distance away from the point where American and Israeli leaders will have to make that weighty decision?

I think we are some distance away. Iran does not seem, for now, to be sprinting toward the bomb, because it does not want to force our hand or Israel’s. They are moving forward steadily, not rushing. It is possible that 2013 is the year of decision, or that a decision could be put off into 2014.

You write that Condi Rice expressed to you and others at one point during her tenure as secretary of state that she viewed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the lens of the Jim Crow South. That’s pretty shocking. Can you explain that?

Yes, she spoke occasionally of the humiliations suffered by blacks in the Jim Crow South, and analogized them to the humiliations suffered by Palestinians especially at checkpoints in the West Bank, and more generally under the Israeli occupation. She did not view the Israeli-Palestinian conflict trough that lens, but did see the occupation that way sometimes.

One of Rice’s big initiatives, which you opposed, was the Annapolis “Meeting” organized at the end of the Bush administration in a last ditch effort to advance a Arab-Israel peace deal. How did anyone in the administration imagine that a peace deal could be achieved with Mahmoud Abbas when he didn’t even hold sway over all of the territory that would make up an eventual Palestinian state, like the entirety of Gaza?

I think the idea was that a deal could be signed with Abbas and then implemented in the West Bank. If it was well implemented, and life really improved in the West Bank politically and economically, people in Gaza would demand that they too be able to share in the improvements. I did not think Abbas would ever sign any deal, no matter how generous, because he feared the criticism from Hamas and others over the compromises any deal would necessarily entail.

Is there an anecdote or story from the book that you are particularly fond of?

There are many, but here’s one. In November 2003 the peace process seemed entirely stuck, defeated by [then-Palestinian leader Yasser] Arafat. Israeli Prime Minister Sharon was going to be in Rome on an official visit, so I was dispatched there for a secret meeting with him to ask if he saw any way forward. I flew to Rome and walked over to Sharon’s hotel, the Cavalieri Hilton, and one of his closest aides met me in the parking lot and escorted me through Italian and Israeli security and up to Sharon’s suite. As soon as Sharon appeared we sat down in the dining room of his suite. I anticipated getting a terrific Italian meal, presumably specially catered for him by the best restaurant on the premises. Instead a Sharon staffer brought us a platter covered by slabs of meat. Sharon immediately dug in, pulling over to his side of the table a large piece of pink meat and cutting a huge slice. It sure looked like ham to me, a food I did not eat and assumed Sharon could not, either. So I asked him: “what meat, exactly, is that?” As he brandished a large fork full, he replied “Elliott, sometimes it is better not to ask.”

You were one of the strongest critics of the nomination of Chuck Hagel for secretary of defense, going as far as to say you believed him to be an anti-Semite. Do you have any regrets going there? How confident are you in that assessment today? How confident do you think one needs to be to level such a serious charge against a man?

I said some of his remarks made him seem like an anti-Semite. As I explained in articles I wrote, the test was not whether he makes crude remarks but whether he sees organized political activity by the Jewish community on behalf of Israel as legitimate or not. His own comments suggested he did not, and on the record statements from some Nebraska Jewish leaders gave the same impression.

What three books most shaped your understanding of the Middle East?

I would note four. Bernard Lewis’s “What Went Wrong,” Michael Oren’s “Power, Faith, and Fantasy,” Natan Sharansky’s “The Case for Democracy,” and a somewhat older one: the Hebrew Bible.

North Korea and Iran – partners in nuclear and missile programs.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 12, 2013, 1:42 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile: North Korea N-bomb test sites attended by Iranians

There is full awareness in Washington and Jerusalem that the North Korean nuclear test conducted Tuesday, Feb. 12, brings Iran that much closer to conducting a test of its own. A completed bomb or warhead are not necessary for an underground nuclear test; a device which an aircraft or missile can carry is enough.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s boast this week that Iran will soon place a satellite in orbit at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers – and Tehran’s claim on Feb. 4 to have sent a monkey into space – highlight Iran’s role in the division of labor Pyongyang and Tehran have achieved in years of collaboration: the former focusing on a nuclear armament and the latter on long-range missile technology to deliver it.

Their advances are pooled. Pyongyang maintains a permanent mission of nuclear and missile scientists in Tehran, whereas Iranian experts are in regular attendance at North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests.

Since the detonation of the “miniature atomic bomb” reported by Pyongyang Tuesday – which US President Barack Obama called “a threat to US National security”- Iran must be presumed to have acquired the same “miniature atomic bomb” capabilities – or even assisted in the detonation.
Word of the North Korean atomic test reminded US officials of Ahmadinejad’s boast only a couple of days ago about the forthcoming launch of an Iranian satellite into orbit.  The two events clearly hang together as probably coordinated between Tehran and Pyongyang.
Ahead of the UN Security Council emergency session later Tuesday, Kim Jong Un’s government warned of “stronger actions” after the nuclear test.  Its diplomat warned the UN disarmament forum that his country will “never bow to any resolutions.”
The nuclear threat is not the only unconventional warfare peril looming closer. In Damascus, Syrian rebels are nearer than ever before to crashing through the capital’s last lines of defense. Tuesday, they were only 1.5 kilometers short of the heart of Damascus.
Western and Israeli military sources believe that if the Syrian rebels reach this target, the Syrian ruler Bashar Assad will have no qualms about using chemical weapons for the first time in the two-year civil war to save his regime. Both the US and Israel have warned him that doing so would cross a red line.

debkafile’s military sources report that Syrian rebel forces, spearheaded by an Al Qaeda-allied Islamist brigade, gained entry Tuesday to the 4th Division’s (Republican Guard) main base in the Adra district of eastern Damascus and are fighting the defenders in hand to hand combat for control of the facility.

Other rebel forces are retaking parts of the Damascus ring road in fierce battles, thereby cutting off the Syrian army’s Homs units in the north from their supply lines from the capital.

These two rebel thrusts, if completed, would bring the Syrian army closer than ever before to collapse. Assad is therefore expected to use every means at his disposal to cut his enemies down.

New CIA chief may have converted to Islam: report.

Tuesday, 12 February 2013

Brennan is a CIA veteran, among his previously held posts are the deputy national security advisor for homeland security and counterterrorism. (AFP)

Rebels capture air base in northern Syria | The Times of Israel.

Airfield seizure comes day after Syrian rebels captured the country’s largest dam

A statue of Hafez Assad, father of Syrian President Bashar Assad, burns after being set on fire by rebel fighters inside the grounds of the General Company of the Euphrates Dam in al-Raqqa, Syria, on Monday, February 11, 2013. (AP Photo/Ugarit News via AP video)

BEIRUT (AP) — Syrian activists say rebels have captured a military air base in the country’s north, their second strategic victory in as many days.

The director of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Rami Abdul-Rahman says the rebels took control of the al-Jarrah air base in the northern province of Aleppo on Tuesday.

He says that after days of sporadic clashes at the airfield, opposition fighters launched an operation to capture al-Jarrah on Monday and had overrun the facility by Tuesday morning.

The seizure of the airfield comes a day after Syrian rebels captured the country’s largest dam in one of their biggest strategic victories since the crisis began two years ago.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.

Hours after Korea test, Iran calls for end to nukes | The Times of Israel.

Tehran stops short of condemning ally North Korea for its defiant trial, defends ‘nuclear activities for peaceful purposes’

On a large television screen in front of Pyongyang’s railway station, a North Korean state television broadcaster announces the news that North Korea conducted a nuclear test on Tuesday. (Photo credit: AP/Kim Kwang Hyon)

Iran called on Tuesday for all nuclear weapons in the world to be destroyed, hours after North Korea said it carried out a nuclear test in defiance of threats to further isolate the pariah state.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told state news agency IRNA that the world needed to move beyond the use of mass-casualty weapons.

“We need to come to the point where no country has any nuclear weapons and at the same time all weapons of mass destruction and nuclear arms need to be destroyed,” Mehmanparsat said.

Yet, countries should have the right to “make use of nuclear activities for peaceful purposes,” he added.

Iran and North Korea are seen as allies. In December, Iranian agents were reported on hand for a long-range missile test and the two countries maintain weapons technology sharing agreements.

Iran itself is accused of attempting to build a nuclear weapon, though it claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Mehmanparsat confirmed Iran was converting some highly-enriched uranium to nuclear fuel. “This work is being done and all its reports have been sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in a complete manner,” Mehmanparast was quoted as saying by IRNA.

On Sunday, diplomats from the UN’s nuclear watchdog had claimed Iran was resuming its conversion of small amounts of enriched uranium into nuclear fuel, signaling that Tehran was possibly trying to buy more time for diplomacy ahead of its nuclear talks with P5+1 group — comprising the UN Security Council members plus Germany — scheduled later this month in Kazakhstan.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Tehran was continuing its quest for an atomic bomb, is approaching the irreversible “red line” and, if not stopped, would soon be able to arm a nuclear warhead.

“It’s focused on enrichment because if they could continue and complete enrichment of highly enriched uranium then they’ll have enough to produce enough material to produce a nuclear bomb,” the premier told a delegation from the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations.

The Iranian statement came after North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test Tuesday, taking an important step toward building a bomb small enough to be fitted on a missile that could reach United States.

The move drew condemnations from the UN, US, France and NATO as well as Russia, which unequivocally condemned the testing of the miniaturized nuclear device, according to Russia Today.

The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton urged Pyongyang to refrain from further “provocative” actions.

Russian, Japanese, and top US diplomats discussed North Korea’s nuclear test over the phone Tuesday, Russia’s RIA Novosti reported, quoting its Foreign Ministry.

Earlier Tuesday, US President Barack Obama called the test a “highly provocative act” that threatens security and international peace.

“The danger posed by North Korea’s threatening activities warrants further swift and credible action by the international community,” Obama said in a statement issued early Tuesday. “The United States will also continue to take steps necessary to defend ourselves and our allies.”

North Korea’s official state media said the test was conducted in a safe manner and is aimed at coping with “outrageous” US hostility that “violently” undermines the North’s peaceful, sovereign right to launch satellites. North Korea faced sanctions after a December launch of a rocket that the UN and Washington called a cover for a banned missile test. Pyongyang said it was a peaceful satellite launch.

The North said it used a “lighter, miniaturized atomic bomb” that still has more explosive force than past tests. North Korea is estimated to have enough weaponized plutonium for four to eight bombs, according to American nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker. However, it is not known whether North Korean scientists have found a way to miniaturize warheads.

The timing of the test will be seen as significant. The test came hours before Obama was scheduled to give his State of the Union speech, a major, nationally televised address. It’s also only days before the Saturday birthday of Kim Jong Un’s father, late leader Kim Jong Il, whose memory North Korean propaganda has repeatedly linked to the country’s nuclear ambitions. This year also marks the 60th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.

Meanwhile, Mehmanparast also said that the UN nuclear watchdog’s demands to revisit a military site where Tehran is suspected of conducting nuclear-related experiments are still on the table.

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrive in Tehran for talks Wednesday in hopes of restarting a probe into Iran’s disputed nuclear program. “The discussion over visiting Parchin could be part of a deal” with IAEA inspectors, he said.

Iran says it will agree to inspection of Parchin base if nuclear ‘rights’ are honored – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

The Islamic Republic announced it began converting some of its 20-percent-enriched uranium into fuel, which will slow the growth of stockpiles that could otherwise be used to make weapons.

By DPA and Reuters | Feb.12, 2013 | 9:59 AM | 2

Satellite imagery of Iran’s Parchin military complex, taken on December 9, 2012. Photo by DigitalGlobe – ISIS

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Israel unlikely to attack Iran before summer, senior officials say

By Amos Harel | Feb.12,2013 | 9:59 AM | 17

Iran on Tuesday said that a request by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the Parchin military base near Tehran would be possible if the country’s right to a nuclear program were acknowledged.

“We are ready to reach a comprehensive agreement with the IAEA, including acknowledgment of Iran’s legitimate rights, and in that case also the inspection of Parchin could be one of the agreements,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told reporters in Tehran.
In addition, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said it was reported that Iran is converting some of its higher-grade enriched uranium into reactor fuel.

“This work is being done and all its reports have been sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in a complete manner,” Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted as saying on Tuesday by state news agency IRNA.

He was responding to a question on news reports that Iran has converted some of its 20-percent-enriched uranium into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, IRNA said.

Diplomats accredited to the IAEA in Vienna told Reuters that Iran had apparently resumed converting into fuel small amounts of higher-grade enriched uranium – a process which if expanded could buy time for negotiations between Washington and Tehran on its disputed nuclear program.

The possibility of Iran converting enriched uranium into fuel – slowing a growth in stockpiles of material that could be used to make weapons – is one possible way in which the nuclear dispute between Iran and the West could avoid hitting a crisis by the summer.

Tehran could otherwise have amassed sufficient stock by June to hit a “red line” set by Israel after which it has indicated it could attack to prevent Iran acquiring enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon.

A team from the IAEA, headed by chief Herman Nackaerts, will resume talks in Tehran on Wednesday to press for authorization to visit the Parchin base, where atomic weapon parts have allegedly been tested.

While Iran insists its nuclear projects are solely for civil purposes, the West is concerned that the Islamic state would use its atomic technology for a secret weapons’ program.

Last week Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei strongly rejected proposals for direct talks with the United States, effectively quashing suggestions for a breakthrough one-on-one dialogue on the nuclear standoff and potentially other issues.

Washington has indicated in the past that it’s prepared to talk directly with Iran on the nuclear issue, but so far nothing has come of it. Meanwhile, the wider talks between Iran and world powers have made little headway. Three rounds last year ended in stalemate with Tehran pushing for a roll back of Western sanctions in exchange for any key concessions on its nuclear program.

The West and allies fear that Iran’s uranium enrichment labs could eventually produce weapons-grade material. The Islamic Republic claims it only seeks nuclear fuel for energy reactors and medical applications.

Last week Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei strongly rejected proposals for direct talks with the United States, effectively quashing suggestions for a breakthrough one-on-one dialogue on the nuclear standoff and potentially other issues.

Washington has indicated in the past that it’s prepared to talk directly with Iran on the nuclear issue, but so far nothing has come of it. Meanwhile,the wider talks between Iran and world powers have made little headway. Three rounds last year ended in stalemate with Tehran pushing for a roll back of Western sanctions in exchange for any key concessions on its nuclear program.

The West and allies fear that Iran’s uranium enrichment labs could eventually produce weapons-grade material. The Islamic Republic claims it only seeks nuclear fuel for energy reactors and medical applications.

US envoy reassures Israel on Ira… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Israel unlikely to attack Iran before summer, senior officials say – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Iran will obviously be high on the agenda when U.S. President Barack Obama visits Israel next month, but the prevailing assessment here is that the discussion is already closed.

By Amos Harel | Feb.12, 2013 | 3:15 AM | 10

Israeli F-15 jets. Photo by AP

By DPA and Reuters

Feb.12,2013 | 3:15 AM

Several recent developments have reduced the chances of Israel launching an independent attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities without prior coordination with Washington, at least for the next few months.

Iran will obviously be high on the agenda when U.S. President Barack Obama visits Israel next month, but the prevailing assessment here is that the discussion is already closed: Israel will have trouble launching an uncoordinated strike on Iran before Iran holds its presidential election in June.

As usual in recent years, the approaching end of winter has revived discussion in the international media about the possibility of an Israeli attack. The Iranian nuclear threat – which, contrary to expectations, was pushed to the margins of the political debate during Israel’s recent campaign season – has again become a focus of attention as the weather improves and the cloud cover over Iran’s nuclear sites dissipates. Other seasonal events – the quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the resumption of talks between Iran and the six powers, both of which are expected in the coming weeks – also raise the barometer a bit.

But a confluence of several developments has reduced the likelihood of an an Israeli strike.

The first is a slowdown in the pace of Iran’s nuclear progress. On Sunday, Reuters quoted “diplomats in Vienna” (the regular code that the media use to refer to officials from the IAEA) as saying that the agency’s next report will show the Iranians are still converting some uranium enriched to a level of 20 percent into fuel for their medical research reactor. That matches the assessment offered by Israeli sources about 10 days ago, as reported in Haaretz at the time.

This means Iran isn’t yet approaching the red line set by Israel: enough uranium enriched to the 20 percent level to make one nuclear bomb (about 250 kilograms ). Since Iran hasn’t yet crossed that line, and since it has already entered the “zone of immunity” that Israel previously defined as its red line, a benchmark it passed in late 2012, Israel would have trouble justifying an attack to the international community. Senior Israeli officials recently told foreign diplomats that they now think Iran will refrain from sparking a crisis over its nuclear progress at least until this summer.

Second, Obama is still pursuing the track of international sanctions on Tehran. Though the men slated to hold senior posts in his second administration all said during their Senate confirmation hearings that they are committed to preventing a nuclear Iran rather than containing it, Washington is satisfied that the sanctions have caused considerable damage to the Iranian economy and believes that for now, it makes sense to continue along this track.

Third, this position has gained renewed force from the fact that Iran is holding its presidential election in June. The Obama administration believes that Iran’s spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, is now under pressure: He is worried that the combination of sanctions and the string of uprisings in the Arab world will affect the atmosphere inside Iran, perhaps even to the point of sparking a new wave of protests similar to the failed Green Revolution of 2009. Thus at this stage, Washington is more interested in ratcheting up political tensions in Iran than in using force to stop its nuclear program.

The Americans are also currently removing their aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf, after many months in which they built up substantial forces in the region.

Given these circumstances, the United States expects Israel not to interfere. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has refrained from ordering military action at several previous decision points in recent years, will have to take the views of his American visitor into account.

Finally, Netanyahu must take three other things into account: the vehement opposition by defense establishment professionals to any attack at this point in time that isn’t coordinated with Washington; the agenda of the party expected to be his main partner in his next government (the people who voted for Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party wanted to bring about socioeconomic change, not open up a new military front ); and perhaps also the views of his next defense minister, whoever that may be.

It’s doubtful that Netanyahu has yet fully recovered from the trick played on him by outgoing Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who apparently withdrew his support for a strike on Iran at the last minute last fall. And if Moshe Ya’alon is the man who succeeds Barak, his position is even clearer: In all the discussions on Iran held by Netanyahu’s octet of senior ministers over the last four years, Ya’alon was firmly in the dovish camp.

Iran makes reactor fuel, calls for worldwide destruction of nuclear weapons.

Tuesday, 12 February 2013

“We need to come to the point where no country has any nuclear weapons and at the same time all weapons of mass destruction and nuclear arms need to be destroyed,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mehmanparast said. (Reuters)

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Israeli space cadets say moon shot is no fantasy | The Times of Israel.

By 2015, there will be an Israeli flag next to Neil Armstrong’s bootprint, vows the team behind SpaceIL. They’re not kidding

Three of SpaceIL’s founders — Yariv Bash, Yonatan Winetraub, and Kfir Damari — with a model of the spacecraft they propose to send to the moon (photo credit: Alon Hadar)

If the idea of an Israeli spaceship on the moon sounds risible to you, you’re actually not alone, said Enon Landenberg, the head of commercial marketing at SpaceIL, the foundation committed to putting an Israeli vessel on the moon by 2015.

“People did think it was a joke when we started two years ago, and even now we get that to some extent,” Landenberg, who is also chief innovation officer at the Publicis Israel ad agency, told The Times of Israel Monday. “But SpaceIL is not only not a joke, it will set the agenda for science education and research in Israel in the future, we believe.”

It seems that the SpaceIL project has more believers every day; in fact on Monday, Bezeq — Israel’s biggest communications company — officially announced that it, too, believed in Israel’s space future, as put forth by SpaceIL. Bezeq has signed on as the project’s first major corporate sponsor and, at a press conference in Tel Aviv, described how it would provide infrastructure, manpower, and financial support to the project that many people hope will be the biggest scientific achievement in Israel’s young history.

SpaceIL’s mission, according to the organization, is to successfully build, launch into space, and land on the moon a space capsule — which would make Israel the fourth country in the world to achieve this. The inspiration for the project actually came from a contest being run by Google, called LunarX, which promises to award $30 million to a team that can land an unmanned, robotic craft on the moon and carry out several missions, such as taking a high-definition video and beaming it back to earth; and exploring the surface of the moon by moving 500 meters along the moon’s surface or, alternatively, sending out a vehicle that will traverse that distance.

Google’s purpose, according to the company, is to jump-start private lunar exploration, which, it believes, will be a great springboard to develop new technologies and encourage young people to get more involved in science — inspired by the possibilities of private space exploration.

It’s the “Apollo Effect,” explained Yanki Margalit, chairman of SpaceIL and former head of Aladdin Israel, which he founded. “We’ve seen how space exploration has propelled whole economies and countries to reach new, stronger levels of innovation,” he said at Monday’s press conference. “Israel is ripe for a revolution like that, and SpaceIL is going to make it happen.”

Proposed orbit launch for the SpaceIL craft (photo credit: Courtesy)

And while it would be great if SpaceIL won the Google LunarX prize, Margalit continued, the project has moved beyond the parameters of the contest. “It’s become a national mission that will inspire a generation of kids to embrace science and technology.” The education aspect of the project looms quite large for Margalit and the rest of the SpaceIL folks. “Today, Israeli kids are watching the local equivalents of the big reality shows, like ‘The Voice’ and ‘Master Chef,’ ” Margalit said. “In 2015, we want to make sure that they are watching a new reality show — “Moon 2.0,” Season One, a show that we believe they will be inspired to want to be a part of, once they see how far Israeli technology has taken us.”

So how does SpaceIL plan to pull this off? Yonatan Winetraub, CTO of SpaceIL and one of its charter members, described some of the technical details of the project. “There are three stages involved in this: getting into space; getting into the moon’s orbit; and landing on the moon and carrying out the required tasks.” The first stage, the most expensive, is actually the easiest for the team; instead of building a launching system and propulsion system, the SpaceIL capsule will “hitch a ride” with a commercial rocket or satellite that is already set to go up in space. This will allow the team — which numbers about 300, all of them volunteers working in their spare time — to concentrate on the landing and mission aspects of the project, instead of reinventing propulsion systems that already exist.

One of the reasons the SpaceIL craft will be able to get into space via rocket-sharing is because it is slated to be very light: At 120 kilograms in toto (80 kilos for fuel, the rest for electronics and avionics), it will, in fact, be the lightest and smallest spacecraft ever to be launched at the moon, thanks to advances in satellite and component miniaturization (much of it produced in Israel).

Once in space, the team will have a very specific schedule: to move the craft out of earth’s orbit and into that of the moon; to figure out when and where to land, in order to beat the extreme high and low temperatures of the moon’s surface and avoid the roughest terrain; and solve the problem of how to avoid rocks or craters that would destroy the craft — using special sensor equipment developed by SpaceIL, based on advances by the IDF and Israeli companies.

Yanki Margalit , CEO of SpaceIL (right) and Ran Langoun, deputy CEO of Bezeq, at Monday’s press conference (photo credit: Courtesy)

One of the products the team is developing, in partnership with Elbit-Elop, is special video cameras that will stand up to the moon’s harsh climate, in order to be able to transmit high-definition videos back to earth, said Sandy Chefetz, head of photography and avionics for the project. In addition, said Winetraub, the team has developed a special system that will relaunch the lunar lander from the moon’s surface — the first time that this will ever happen, he enthused — in order to move the vehicle the requisite 500 meters along the moon’s surface. The entire drama will be transmitted back to earth via Bezeq optical-fiber technology, explained Ran Langoun, deputy CEO of Bezeq. And, in fact, Bezeq’s fiberoptic cable, along with an Israeli flag, will be the country’s “gift” to the moon: The cable will remain up there, for the benefit of future space travelers.

SpaceIL is a nonprofit foundation, and is relying on donations to get into space, explained Margalit. So far, about $20 million of the $30 million needed to run the project has been raised. On SpaceIL’s Facebook page, visitors are encouraged to make a donation in multiples of “chai” — 18 shekels or dollars.

The organization does not plan on keeping the GoogleX prize if it does win, stated Winetraub; instead, it will channel that money back into science education, and conduct more programs to expose more kids to the importance of space travel and research. “By the middle of 2015, when we are ready to launch, we plan to have visited nearly every school in the country with the message of how important SpaceIL is, and how students can get involved,” expounded Winetraub.

Winetraub enthused that he believes the project will lead to a renaissance of hi-tech development as well, based on SpaceIL’s accomplishments: “The technology is being developed with an eye towards reuse. The miniaturized and super-light spacecraft we have designed, for example, could greatly enhance the opening of space, because the spacecraft are cheap enough that a country could, for example, shoot more than one at the moon or an asteroid, studying it from different perspectives. That has been impossible until now, but technology like this, as well as other innovations we are developing, will inspire many new technologies and inventions, we believe.”

But for the SpaceIL team, it’s more about the kids than anyone else, enthused Landenberg. “This is something that can make science cool again, and we need that to maintain our edge. We want to take scientific issues off the ‘back channels’ and put them on the prime-time channels, where everyone will be watching — including the kids who will be inspired when they see how far Israeli technology has taken them. Who knows how many budding scientists will be inspired and encouraged by the landing?”