WarSclerotic

The Middle Eastern Alawite-Shiite Axis: Initial Signs and Implications.

Hanan Gefen

11/2/2013

The process of disintegration taking place in Syria is accelerating social and political processes. The blood-soaked rebellion against the Alawite central regime and its partners is deepening old rifts in Syrian society and creating new ones, while the Alawaite (Syrian) and Shiite (Hezbollah and Iran) alliance is taking a new form.

It seems that it is possible to notice part of the new reality that will be met not long from now through the fog of the combat. The Syrian rebellion is close to its goal – ending 40 years in which the Alawite minority ruled the country. The results of the rebellion thus far have been regime chaos alongside the formulation of new loyalties. The contours of the new loyalties are primarily religious-ethnic, and rely on populations in defined geographical concentrations – Kurds, Sunnis, Alawites and Druze.

For example, the Druze currently face genuine distress. The alliance with the Alawites is about to lose its meaning, and they must find a way to the next elements that will rule in Syria. The process is still underway. It is possible that several instances of ethnic cleansing will take place before the internal borders are established, primarily between Sunni and Alawite populations, in the coastal regions (Latakia, Tartus) and central Syria (Homs, Hama), accompanied by harsh massacre photos. Their goal will be to stabilize the core regions of each of the sides.

The Alliance Strengthens
The rebellion has strengthened the Alawite-Shiite alliance. If the Alawites supported Hezbollah and aided in its formulation in the past, now the Shiites are coming towards the Alawites, backed with Iranian support. This alliance is preparing itself for the day after the rebellion. While it is not discussed openly, the reality being formed points to this direction. The Shiite-Alawite connection will rely on territorial continuity from south Lebanon, through the Lebanon Valley and the Syrian coast, up to the border with Turkey.

Military assets such as military units and strategic weapons will be transferred towards this region. The transfer of advanced weapons from Syria to Lebanon must be explained as part of this readiness, and it must not be thought that Assad will share assets with Hezbollah as a philanthropist during his period of distress. Assad also does not view himself as committing suicide, certainly not the Alawite power elements in the military and the Alawite community. Such transfer of weapons must therefore be understood as an interim process for preserving strategic capabilities for future use by the Alawite-Shiite axis.
The Russian bases in the coastal regions pose an interesting matter. Will they continue to exist in their current form, and transfer loyalty from the next central regime in Damascus to the Alawite entity along the coast? Such a possibility exists, since the primary Russian interest is the existence of a presence along the coasts of the Middle East.

All these, along with the fact that the notion of the independent Syria has suffered a strong blow, have a direct effect on Israel’s geo-strategic situation. This is where many trends continue, each of which are of importance to Israel’s national security.

The residues of hostility and acts of vendetta will accompany Syrian society for many more years, and will influence the agendas of the new leaderships that will arise. The Syrian military may fall apart, with the Alawite elite units transferring to the Alawite region. Hezbollah and the Iranian threat will survive the fall of the Damascus regime and will continue to threaten Israel from the north. The Druze in Syria, currently part of the Alawite coalition, will be forced to seek new partners within and beyond Syria.

At the same time, Turkey and Israel will have a common opponent that will force them to converse, either directly or with US mediation, and Russia’s presence in Syria and the Russian interests in the Middle East will apparently be preserved.

**

Brig. Gen (Res.) Hanan Gefen served in Israeli intelligence for many years. His last role was as commander of IDF Unit 8200.

Barak makes surprise visit to U.S., days before top Netanyahu aides’ own trip – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

( I’m waiting for the press to run stories that Barak is going to convince Obama to convince Netanyahu not to attack Iran. – JW )

The purpose of the trip is still not clear, but the outgoing defense minister is to meet with senior intelligence and Pentagon officials; this is Barak’s fourth trip abroad in the last month alone.

By Barak Ravid | Feb.11, 2013 | 12:31 PM | 2

Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Photo by Ilan Assayag

Defense Minister Ehud Barak left for Washington on Monday morning for a surprise visit. The exact purpose of his trip is still not clear, but his office said that he was planning to meeting with senior officials in the Pentagon and the American intelligence community.

This is Barak’s fourth trip abroad in the last month alone. He has made no fewer than nine business trips outside Israel in the past five months.He returned to Israel just last week from his latest trip – to the International Security Conference in Munich, Germany, which was attended by defense ministers from around the world. This trip came one week after Barak attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The defense minister’s other recent jaunts include a January visit to Washington and a visit to the United Kingdom in late October.

Minister Dan Meridor will serve as acting defense minister in Barak’s absence.

During these trips, Barak had the opportunity to make some comments to foreign media and audiences that quickly turned into front-page headlines in Israel.

While in Munich, for example, Barak made what was perceived to be the first Israeli acknowledgment of last week’s attack in Syria that foreign media attributed to Israel.

While in Davos, Barak said he was confident the U.S. has a plan for a ‘surgical operation’ against Iran, which would only be used in the event that diplomatic efforts to convince the country to drop its military nuclear program do not succeed.

Barak’s visit to Washington comes at a strange time, and he is planning to retire from politics in just a few weeks.

In addition, National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s special envoy Isaac Molho are scheduled to visit Washington later this week, to prepare for U.S. President Barack Obama’s trip to Israel next month. Aside from the technical details, Amidror will work with the Americans on the visit’s diplomatic agenda, especially on the Syrian and Iranian issues. Molho will discuss ideas for restarting the peace process.

Peres: Iran to be key topic in O… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Obama to Tell Bibi: No Surprise Attack on Iran – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Obama: don’t surprise me

AFP photo

One of the goals of U.S. President Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to Israel is to deliver a message to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, not to carry out any “military surprises” against Iran while the U.S. in engaged in negotiations with it.

Voice of Israel public radio, which reported the matter, says this is what senior U.S. Administration sources told diplomatic sources in Jerusalem in recent days.

The U.S. Administration sources added that Obama intends to address Israeli public opinion, and assure the Israeli public of Obama’s commitment to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Voice of Israel radio’s political analyst said that the Americans feel that the result of the Israeli elections and “the strengthening of the center parties” have created a feeling that there is “a possibility for diplomatic change vis-à-vis the Palestinians.”

U.S. and Israeli teams are preparing Obama’s visit and are looking into the possibility that Obama will speak before students at one of Israel’s universities. The Prime Minister’s Office would not tell Voice of Israel whether overtures toward the PA are planned, in advance of Obama’s visit.

Shame on Jewish Democrats – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Republican senators were the only ones who passionately grilled Hagel on his lack of support for Israel

Shoula Romano Horing

Committee chairman, Democratic Jewish Senator Carl Levin, who prior to the hearing had already indicated his support for Hagel’s nomination by calling him “well qualified, included in his opening remarks only a reference to Hagel’s “troubling statements” concerning Iran without specifics or follow up, with not even one mention of Israel. During the hearing it was Levin who called Hagel “a person of integrity” and came to his rescue when Hagel was confused about US policy regarding Iran and containment.

Watching the Chuck Hagel US Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, I almost became physically sick. To watch my fellow Jewish senators, all liberal Democrats, suck up to Obama and Hagel with softball questions against the interests of their own people and Israel was more than I could handle. The spectacle of southern Republicans senators, with almost no Jewish constituents in their states, standing up for the Jewish people and Israel against Hagel’s evasive and nonsensical responses, while fellow Jews sat idly by, will stick with me for a long time.

Bless the Republicans for doing what is right while shame on my fellow Jews for not learning from history. The actions of these Jewish Democrats concerning the Hagel nomination do not bode well for the future of our people or Israel.

The other Jewish senator on the committee, Richard Blumenthal, totally ignored Hagel’s record concerning Israel and only murmured his dismay that a man who had served the country had to endure strong inquiries from the Republicans. After the hearings, he stated that he would support Hagel despite the fact that most observers believed that Hagel looked confused, uninformed, and ill equipped for the position during the hearing.

It was the Republicans who were the first and only senators who challenged Hagel’s previous statement on the Jewish lobby. “The political reality is … that the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here,” Hagel told former Mideast peace negotiator Aaron David Miller in a 2006 interview. “I have always argued against some of the dumb things they do because I don’t think it’s in the interest of Israel. I just don’t think it’s smart for Israel.” Senator Roger Wicker, a Mississippi Republican, pressed Hagel on whether he still believes that is true.

‘A few good Democrats.’ Hagel’s confirmation hearing (Photo: AFP)

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina followed up by asking Hagel to “name one senator” who had been intimidated in that way by AIPAC and name “one dumb thing we (Senate) have been goaded into doing because of the pressure from the Israeli lobby,” adding “I cannot think of a more provocative thing to say about the relationship between the US and Israel.”

Despite the fact that 69% of the Jews voted for Obama and donated heavily to the Democratic Party, the Republican senators were the only ones who passionately grilled and interrogated Hagel on his lack of support for Israel, while all the Democratic senators tried to cover up this fact.

Hagel was confronted by several Republicans for refusing to sign congressional letters seeking a terrorist designation for the militant Islamist group Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The ranking Republican senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma reminded the committee that in 2000 an overwhelming majority of senators sent a letter he sponsored to President Clinton reaffirming their solidarity with Israel during Arafat’s terror campaign and Hagel was one of just four who refused to sign the letter. Senator Graham, referring to the letter, told Hagel “the lack of signature by you run chills down my spine.”

A month before his death, Ed Koch, the former mayor of NY, told the Algemeiner Journal that he hoped that Democrats in Congress will oppose Hagel’s appointment, saying “if Hagel is not confirmed it’ll be because the Republicans take him on and a few good Democrats.”

But in reality not even one Democrat was good enough to join the Republicans, including the eleven Jewish Senators.

Many leading Jewish Democratic senators and congressmen who are known to be pro-Israel were in a rush to publicly endorse Hagel weeks in advance of the hearing. The leading Jewish Senator Schumer from NY needed only 90 minutes of conversation with Hagel to come out in support of him and to encourage his Senate colleagues to also support him. Senators Boxer, Feinstein, and Congresswoman Wasserman, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, stated that even though they were concerned with his comments about the “Jewish lobby” and his voting record, they accepted Hagel’s regrets and apologies and his verbal reassurances about supporting Israel and facing Iran.

Purim is coming soon and we will read the Book of Esther. After Queen Esther told Mordechai, her uncle, that she cannot go to the king and plead with him to save the Jewish people because she worried about her own self survival, Mordechai relayed to Esther the following words: “Do not think that you will escape the fate of all the Jews by being in the king’s palace. For if you will remain silent at this time, relief and salvation will come to the Jews from another source, and you and the house of your father will be lost. And who knows if it is not for just such a time that you reached this royal position.”

I hope the Jewish senators, congressmen and other influential Jews who serve in Obama’s administration remember these words before it is too late.

Shoula Romano Horing is an attorney. Her blog: www.shoularomanohoring.com

Hezbollah moves into south Lebanon villages – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Analysis: Terror group storing rockets in private homes it sold to poor Shiite families at bargain prices

Part one of analysis by Ron Ben-Yishai

During a cold winter’s day in late January on the Biranit mountain range, which overlooks south Lebanon, I noticed that dozens, if not hundreds of new buildings had been built in Bint Jbeil, Maroun al-Ras, Aita al-Shaab and Barmish. There is almost no remnant of the devastation the region sustained during the Second Lebanon War, and even without binoculars it was evident that the Shiite communities have expanded significantly compared with the few Christian-Maronite villages in the area, which remained the same size, more or less. This expansion was made possible in part by funds allocated by Iran and the Arab states towards the rehabilitation of the Shiite villages in the aftermath of the 2006 war with Israel, but it was mainly the result of Hezbollah’s decision to revolutionize its preparedness for a conflict with Israel and move its forces from the open areas to the villages.

Hassan Nasrallah’s organization has found that it is more difficult to deal with IDF soldiers and their superior firepower in open areas. Moreover, UN Resolution 1701 from 2006 forbids Hezbollah gunmen from carrying weapons in open areas. Therefore, Hezbollah has moved from bases in “nature preserves” to designated areas within the villages from which it can launch rocket or other attacks against Israel. The evacuated nature reserves no longer serve as permanent bases, and instead are meant to be used as bases for launching raids on Israeli communities in the Galilee.

At the same time, the Shiite terror group launched a major social/real-estate project that bolstered its political standing: It purchased lands on the outskirts of the villages, built homes on these lands and offered them to poor Shiite families at bargain prices (to rent or buy), one the condition that at least one rocket launcher would be placed in one of the house’s rooms or in the basement, along with a number of rockets, which will be fired at predetermined targets in Israel when the order is given.

In addition, Hezbollah has set up camouflaged defense positions in villages which contain advanced Russian-made anti-tank missiles it had received from Syria. Hezbollah gunmen have planted large explosive devices along the access roads, and inside the villages structures that were purchased by the organization were converted into arms caches. The Hezbollah gunmen are focusing their efforts on finding ways to hide underground to protect themselves from IDF fire and to prevent Israeli intelligence from tracking them down so they will be able to continue fighting even when IDF forces are nearby.

In this manner some 180 Shiite villages and small towns situated between the Zahrani River and the border with Israel have been converted into fighting zones in which Hezbollah is preparing – above and below ground – for the next conflict with Israel. Hezbollah has some 65,000 rockets and missiles at its disposal.

Rockets in the basement. Bint Jbeil (Archive photo: Rinat Malkes)

Another issue, perhaps even more urgent, relates to Hezbollah’s preparations for the day Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime collapses. According to experts, Hezbollah’s leadership is aiding Assad not only because it was ordered to do so by Iran, but also because Nasrallah believed at the onset of the revolt that the Syrian president would be able to crush the opposition within a short period of time and then be indebted to the Shiite “brothers” from Lebanon and bolster the ties with them.

During the early days of his rule, Assad surprised Nasrallah on a number of occasions. He supplied Hezbollah with advanced weapons that his father Hafez Assad never even dreamed of transferring to the Lebanese terror group. Most of Hezbollah’s heavy mid-range rockets and anti-tank missiles were supplied by Syria – not by Iran. But Nasrallah realized recently that he bet on a dying horse, and now he is trying to minimize the damage.

Bint Jbeil after the 2006 war (Archive photo: Rinat Malkes)

The Hezbollah leader is currently trying to transfer from Syria weapons he was supposed to receive – as part of a past agreement – only in the event of a military conflict with Israel. He is even making certain to maintain territorial contiguity between Shiite population centers in north Lebanon and the Alawite enclave that is gradually being established along the Syrian coastline. Moreover, Nasrallah is working to maintain his legitimacy inside Lebanon amid the criticism leveled at him by other ethnic groups over his support for the Assad family. However, he is focusing mostly on the preparations for a war with Israel.

Despite the fact that there are those in Israel who claim that the deterrence achieved against Hezbollah during the Second Lebanon War has been eroded, it is fairly clear that at this point Nasrallah’s organization does not want to get involved in a major conflict with the Jewish state. Lebanon’s national elections are scheduled for June, and Hezbollah does not want its political legitimacy and dominance to be challenged because it dragged the country into a devastating war with Israel. There is enough tension and violent clashes between Shiites and the Lebanese Sunnis, who are assisting the Syrian rebels trying to topple Assad.

However, it is also possible that Hezbollah will decide to attack us with full force if it gets the impression that Israel is planning to attack it first. As strange as it sounds to Israelis ears, Hezbollah sees us as an unpredictable and treacherous country that is capable of launching a preemptive surprise attack. For example, after the recent bombing of a Syrian convoy transporting anti-aircraft missiles, which foreign media outlets attributed to Israel, Hezbollah forces were placed on high alert for fear that the IDF would also attack targets in Lebanon. The alert level was lowered a few days later.

US withdrawal from Europe-based missile shield will impact Israel’s defense.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 11, 2013, 12:05 AM (GMT+02:00)

US-Europe missile shield – flawed

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Sunday, Feb. 10 echoed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rejection of direct talks with the US four days ago which he said were on the grounds that they “would solve nothing” because, “You are holding a gun against Iran.”

Ahmadinejad added is own rider to this dismissal: “God willing, soon Iran’s satellite will be located in orbit at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers, next to others from four or five advanced powers and it will relay a message of peace and fidelity to the world,” he said.
The boast that Iran would soon be the world’s sixth space power came two weeks after Tehran claimed to have put a monkey in orbit around earth, although it did not report bringing back to earth either the space capsule or the monkey.
Indeed, US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, pouring a healthy dose of skepticism on the very existence of the project, commented: “The Iranians said they sent a monkey, but the monkey they showed later seemed to have different facial features.”
Tehran is again caught wandering at ease through its favorite terrain between fact, hyperbole and fiction about its achievements, whether in space or its nuclear program.
In recent weeks, reelected Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed he wants a broad government coalition for the critical objective of preventing Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
The question is how does he propose to achieve this when tough US and European sanctions have not just failed to stop Iran in its tracks but accelerated its nuclear progress. Iran is now estimated to be within four months of a nuclear bomb capacity from the moment a decision is taken to build one.
Those months are critical: On February 25 the five UN Security Council’s permanent members plus Germany sit down with Iran in Kazakhstan for a fresh round of negotiations. Former rounds in this format led nowhere and no breakthrough is expected this time either beyond, at best, a date for a continuation.
On March 20, President Barack Obama arrives in Israel for the first foreign trip of his second term. The purpose of his visit is plain, except to Netanyahu’s domestic rivals: Facing a 50 percent cutback in military spending, the Obama administration cannot credibly threaten to go to war against a recalcitrant Iran. But the US president may still wave the Israeli military option in Tehran’s face.

Not that the ayatollahs are likely to be impressed. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have both dismissed talks with Washington “with a gun” at their head, meaning that they are not scared of the Israeli gun the Americans are putting to their heads.
In fact, the Islamic rulers of Tehran are reported by debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources to be fully confident that they are home and dry as a nuclear power after a secret US Pentagon research study was leaked that “casts doubt on whether the multibillion-dollar missile defense system planned for Europe” (originally by the Bush administration) “can ever protect the US from Iranian missiles as intended.”

Clearly the missile shield against Iran, which aroused ire in Moscow, looks like falling under the defense budget axe.
The missile shield in Europe was also designed to defend Israel and Turkey against Iranian ballistic missile attack. Leaving it unfinished because of “flaws” exposes both those countries to such attack.
President Obama will not doubt tell Netanyahu that the system for intercepting medium-range Iranian missiles is to be scrapped. However, he will have to take into account that if the Iranians do finally manage to put a capsule in orbit at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers, they will be able to fire a ballistic missile at any point on earth as well, including the United States. Even if they did fail to put a primate in space, they will keep on trying and advancing until they get there.

Report: Iran building militias in Syria in case Assad falls – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Experts tell Washington Post Tehran, Hezbollah sending weapons, cash to proxy groups to preserve supply routes to Lebanon

Ynet

Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah are building a network of militias inside Syria to protect their interests in the event that President Bashar regime collapses or is forced to withdraw from Damascus, the Washington Post reported, citing US and Middle Eastern officials.

“It’s a big operation,” a senior Obama administration official was quoted as saying by the newspaper. “The immediate intention seems to be to support the Syrian regime. But it’s important for Iran to have a force in Syria that is reliable and can be counted on.”

A senior Arab official told The Washington Post that Iran’s strategy has two tracks: “One is to support Assad to the hilt, the other is to set the stage for major mischief if he collapses.”

Western, Israeli and Middle Eastern elements have expressed growing concern over the possibility of Syria’s fragmentation along tribal or religious lines and over the lack of unity among the Syrian opposition.

‘Major mischief if he collapses.’ Bashar Assad (Photo: Reuters)

According to the Washington Post, the militias set up by Iran and Hezbollah are fighting alongside Syrian government forces to keep Assad in power. However, the report said, officials believe Tehran’s long-term goal is to have reliable operatives in place in the event that Syria fractures into separate ethnic and sectarian enclaves.

Each of Syria’s internal actors has external backers, The Washington Post stressed in its report.

Iranian soldiers during military parade in Tehran (Photo: AFP)

According to the report, Tehran’s interest in preserving a Syrian base partly explains why the financially strapped Iranian government continues to send weapons and cash to groups such as Jaysh al-Sha’bi, an alliance of local Shiite and Alawite militias.

American and Middle Eastern officials who have studied the organization told the Washington Post that Jaysh fighters are predominantly a sectarian fighting force supervised by Iranian and Hezbollah commanders.

“Jaysh is essentially an Iran-Hezbollah joint venture,” David Cohen, under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department, told the newspaper. “Given the other constraints on Iranian resources right now, it’s obvious that this is an important proxy group for them.”

The Treasury Department said Iran had provided it with “routine funding worth millions of dollars.”

A Treasury statement noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander has said that Jaysh was “modeled after Iran’s own Basij, a paramilitary force subordinate to (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) that has been heavily involved in the violent crackdowns and serious human rights abuses occurring in Iran since the June 2009 contested presidential election.”

Experts told The Washington Post that Iran is less interested in preserving Assad in power than in maintaining levers of power, including transport hubs inside Syria. As long as Tehran could maintain control of an air or seaport, they could also maintain a Hezbollah-controlled supply route into Lebanon and continue to manipulate Lebanese politics, the experts argued.