WarSclerotic

What brings Obama to Israel? | The Times of Israel.

As observers scratch their heads and wonder why the US president would make the trip, the simple answer may be: because he said he would

By Haviv Rettig Gur February 6, 2013, 7:30 am

Barack Obama visits the Western Wall in Old City of Jerusalem during a 2008 visit as the Democratic presidential candidate (photo credit: Avi

NEW YORK – With the White House’s announcement Tuesday of a spring visit by President Barack Obama to Israel, speculation has swirled on the exact purpose of such a visit.

There is no scarcity of issues an American president could want to discuss with Israeli leaders – from chaos in Syria and the broader region to the Iranian nuclear program to negotiations with the Palestinians to the bilateral relations of the two countries.

Yet the confused responses to the announcement Tuesday suggested none of those reasons were compelling enough to explain a sitting president’s decision to go.

“Mr. Obama hopes to demonstrate support for the Jewish state despite doubts among some of its backers,” explains the New York Times, clarifying that the visit is “not to be seen as an ambitious effort to revive a stalled peace process.”

The Washington Post apparently disagrees, insisting the visit is intended “to make an early second-term push for peace negotiations.”

Some, like J Street’s Jeremy Ben-Ami, were hopeful it was the latter.

“With Secretary of State John Kerry committed to making a serious effort to settle the conflict and the prospect of a new, centrist Israeli government prepared to make a fresh start, this trip could be an important historic moment. It’s important that this be a very substantive, rather than a ceremonial visit,” he said in a statement.

Yet a statement from the National Jewish Democratic Council, Obama’s loudest election-time supporters in the Jewish community, touched on the same issues –- Kerry’s visit, a new Israeli government -– sans any mention of a peace process.

“Newly-confirmed Secretary of State John Kerry will also be visiting Israel in the coming weeks and we commend both the President and the Secretary for placing Israel and its security needs at the top of the Administration’s foreign policy agenda for President Obama’s second term,” NJDC chair Marc Stanley said.

White House spokesman Jay Carney, in announcing the visit, seemed to suggest it was the former, said little to clarify the question.

“The start of the president’s second term and the formation of a new Israeli government offer the opportunity to reaffirm the deep and enduring bonds between the United States and Israel,” he told reporters. He added that it would give the president the chance to discuss “the way forward on a broad range of issues of mutual concern” with Israeli leaders.

The only issues he named specifically: “Iran and Syria.”

Malcolm Hoenlein, one of American Jewry’s most veteran and savvy observers of Washington politics, suggested the administration would use the trip to “at least explore” possibilities for renewed peace talks.

“The purpose is clearly to push the peace process. And Kerry has indicated it will be a priority for him. The question is, will [Obama] come with a specific proposal?”

But a source close to the administration told The Times of Israel Tuesday that “we really don’t know” the rationale behind the trip.

“It’s obvious that at the moment there’s no immediate public reason to go. If [Obama] was going for the peace process, why would he go now?” the source, who asked to remain anonymous, admitted.

The White House will find a reason –- a policy proposal or agreement -– to justify the visit, the source said, but suggested the visit was likely not intended to achieve a major policy breakthrough.

“I’d find it hard to believe he’d agree to go if there wasn’t something to show for it. I’ve got to believe he’s got to have something to talk about. There’s got to be some policy.”

As pundits scratch their heads, it may be worth recalling the most prosaic reason Obama might be making the trip: because he said he would.

During the election campaign of 2012, while Republicans worked to depict him as anti-Israel, the president’s aides promised he would visit the Jewish state if reelected. Former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East Colin Kahl told reporters in June 2012 that “we can expect [Obama] to visit Israel in a second term should he be elected.”

The promise was doubly significant after Obama was criticized for failing to visit Israel during his first trip to the region during which he delivered his June 2009 “Cairo speech” to the Muslim world.

Obama’s attempt to fulfill that promise to his many pro-Israel supporters (and donors) may be driving him to a visit that carries with it little potential benefit and is fraught with political traps.

If Obama will, as announced, visit the West Bank during the trip, he may have to contend with a reception in Ramallah constructed in such a way as to force him to implicitly acknowledge Palestinian statehood. What will the American president say on a podium festooned with a “State of Palestine” banner and – a likely scenario – a map of Palestine in which Israel does not exist?

If they haven’t yet realized the potential pitfalls, Obama’s Middle East advisors soon will, and their impending frustration will be understandable. Obama faced withering criticism in the Jewish community for failing to visit Israel in 2009. Now that he’s announced a visit, many are asking, “What for?”

Though little of substance is likely to come of such a visit, it will nevertheless be recognized in Israel for what it is: a complex gesture of support for the US-Israel relationship. Some are understandably expecting fireworks when an invigorated, reelected president visits a stubborn, thankless region, perhaps on the theory that an unstoppable force is about to meet an immovable object. But Obama is more likely to adopt a cautious, “do-no-harm” approach.

He promised he would visit. He didn’t promise he would like it.

Obama’s visit to Israel for consultation, stronger ties – not demands.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 6, 2013, 8:38 AM (GMT+02:00)

Talking at UN Headquarters last September

US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro said US President Barak Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu had agreed that the presidential visit to Israel in spring would be for the purpose of consultation – not demands or laying down conditions – on major issues such as reviving the peace process, preventing a nuclear Iran and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Working relations between Obama and Netanyahu were “excellent,” he said.

The US ambassador was answering a question by a Kol Israel national radio interviewer early Wednesday, Feb. 6. The US ambassador said the president does not expect to issue a joint statement after his talks with the Israeli prime minister, but sought to affirm the deep and strengthened ties between the US and Israel.
Shapiro: Obama’s visit would take place after the new Israeli government was in place.
debkafile: Obama’s forthcoming visit has abruptly strengthened the prime minister’s hand in the negotiations for a post-election government coalition and refocused its agenda from haggling on domestic issues to establishing a broad security-diplomatic front.  Party leaders such as Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) are already muting their demands for joining government.
debkafile reported Tuesday, Feb. 5:
The day Israel announced the posting of extra Iron Dome and Patriot anti-missile interceptors in its northern regions, Tuesday, Feb. 5, the White House in Washington disclosed that US President Barack Obama would be visiting Israel in the spring. The visit had been discussed when Obama phoned Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Jan. 28 to congratulate him on his success in Israel’s recent election.
The communique went on to say that the US president was coming to discuss issues of common interest such as furthering the peace process but added, the start of Obama’s second term offers an opportunity to reaffirm Israel’s close relationship with the US and to discuss major issues like Syria and Iran.”

debkafile translates this as referring to the chemical weapons in the hands of Syria and most likely Hizballah as well as Iran’s nuclear program. The date of his visit was not released.
debkafile’s sources have divided the White House bulletin into two parts: security and political.
The reference to Syria and Iran as the “major issues” to be discussed in the framework of the “close relationship” points to Washington and Jerusalem being on the same wavelength on the military actions taken by Israel in Syria last week and those still to come.

It is also a signal from the White House to Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah that in so far as those three allies are planning reprisals for those actions, they will find the United States standing behind Israel.
The IDF command’s announcement expanding the areas of northern Israeli under the anti-missile interceptor shield was released shortly before the White House communiqué and during Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz  talks at US military chiefs in Washington.

According to the IDF bulletin, an extra Patriot missile interceptor and a third Iron Dome battery was deployed in Lower Galilee, a region which covers key towns north of Tel Aviv: Afula, Nazareth, Yoqn’am and Hadera. Batteries were posted earlier outside Haifa and areas of Upper Galilee closer to the Syrian and Lebanese borders.

The Israeli military command is therefore taking into account that some two million Israelis are potentially in danger of missile attack.
The Obama administration cannot be sure if the president’s visit, his first since 2008, will take place before or after a possible confrontation between Israel and Iran, Syria and Hizballah.
As for the political message, the White House announced the coming presidential visit on the day that the newly-elected Israeli Knesset held its first sitting in Jerusalem. It belied the propaganda pumped out by Netanyahu’s political foes throughout the election campaign, accusing him of souring ties with the Obama administration.

By announcing the coming visit at this time, President Obama showed the party leaders who are hanging tough in talks for a coalition government that Netanyahu has his confidence and support and the two leaders are in close rapport on major issues.
Last year, debkafile, alone of any other publication, disclosed that Obama and Netanyahu had reached an understanding to embark on regional initiatives in a spirit of partnership straight after the Israeli election.
President Obama’s trip will also include the West Bank and Jordan.

Obama trip to J’lem is ‘without p… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

Israel Deploys Third Iron Dome Battery in North – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Iron Dome system

Flash 90

Israel has deployed a third Iron Dome anti-missile defense system in the northern part of the country, Israeli media said on Tuesday.

“The deployment of several Iron Dome batteries in the north of the country comes as part of the setting up of the system,” an army spokesman was quoted as saying.

Last week, Israel placed two Iron Dome systems in multiple locations in the north, including in the Haifa area. The move came in response to increasing concerns that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may lose control over the chemical weapons arsenal in the country.

Tuesday’s deployment comes less than a week after an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria.  The strike targeted a military complex near Damascus that a U.S. official later said contained surface-to-air missiles, and an adjacent facility said to house chemical weapons.

Israel has not commented on the attack, and has not officially confirmed its involvement, although on Sunday Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted at the possibility that Israel did carry out the attack.

Iran, Syria’s closest ally, said on Monday that Israel will regret its latest “aggression against Syria”.

“Just like it regretted all its wars… the Zionist entity will regret its aggression against Syria,” said National Security Council head Said Jalili.

Assad said on Sunday that Israel’s purpose in attacking Syria last week was not self defense, but “an attempt to shake the stability of Syria.”

Israel “attacked a scientific center, and this reveals Israel’s real purpose and its collaboration with Syria’s enemies,” Assad said. “Syria can deal with the aggression against it,” he said.

Bulgaria points to Hezbollah in bus bombing | The Times of Israel.

Canadian, Australian citizens part of terrorist cell that carried out attack; Netanyahu calls on Europe to draw conclusions from findings

A bus that was blown up in a July 2012 terrorist attack on Israeli tourists in Burgas, Bulgaria (photo credit: AP/Impact Press Group)

SOFIA, Bulgaria — Hezbollah bombed a bus filled with Israeli tourists in Bulgaria last year, investigators said Tuesday, describing a sophisticated attack carried out by a terrorist cell that included Canadian and Australian citizens.

Bulgarian Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov, in the first major announcement in the investigation into the July 18 bombing that killed five Israelis and their Bulgarian driver, said one of the suspects entered the country with a Canadian passport, and another with one from Australia.

“We have well-grounded reasons to suggest that the two were members of the militant wing of Hezbollah,” Tsvetanov said after a meeting of Bulgaria’s National Security Council.

A third suspect entered Bulgaria with them on June 28, he said, without giving details.

“We expect the government of Lebanon to assist in the further investigation, said Tsvetanov”

Hezbollah, a Shiite terrorist group and political party, has been linked to attacks and kidnappings on Israeli and Jewish interests around the world. The group has denied involvement in the Bulgaria bombing, and Hezbollah officials in Beirut declined further comment Tuesday. Hezbollah officials as a rule leave it to their leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, to comment on security issues.

The bomb exploded as the bus took a group of Israeli tourists from the airport to their hotel in the Black Sea resort of Burgas. The blast also killed the suspected bomber, a tall and lanky pale-skinned man wearing a baseball cap and dressed like a tourist.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Europol Director Rob Wainwright said the bomb was detonated remotely using a circuit board that a Europol expert has analyzed. Although it was initially believed to be a suicide bombing, Wainwright said investigators believe the bomber never intended to die.

Two counterfeit US driver’s licenses that were found near the bombing scene were traced back to Lebanon, where they were made, Wainwright said.

He said forensic evidence, intelligence sources and patterns in past attacks all point to Hezbollah’s involvement in the blast.

“The Bulgarian authorities are making quite a strong assumption that this is the work of Hezbollah,” Wainwright said. “From what I’ve seen of the case — from the very strong, obvious links to Lebanon, from the modus operandi of the terrorist attack and from other intelligence that we see — I think that is a reasonable assumption.”

Europol, which helps coordinate national police across the 27-nation European Union, which includes Bulgaria, sent several specialists to help investigate the attack.

The investigators found no direct links to Iran or to any al-Qaeda-affiliated terror group, Wainwright said.

The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry said security around the Lebanese Embassy was tightened following the announcement. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the attack and said his country would cooperate fully in its investigation.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the Bulgarian government for its thorough and professional investigation. “The Bulgarian findings announced today are clear: Hezbollah was directly responsible for the atrocity. There is only one Hezbollah. It is one organization with one leadership,” said Netanyahu. “This is yet a further corroboration of what we have already known, that Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons are orchestrating a worldwide campaign of terror that is spanning countries and continents.”

Netanyahu added, “We hope the Europeans draw the necessary conclusions regarding the true nature of the Hezbollah.”

In strongly worded statements, Secretary of State John Kerry and White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan said the Europeans, along with other countries that have balked at imposing sanctions on Hezbollah, must act to prevent additional attacks.

“We strongly urge other governments around the world — and particularly our partners in Europe — to take immediate action to crack down on Hezbollah,” Kerry said. “We need to send an unequivocal message to this terrorist group that it can no longer engage in despicable actions with impunity.”

Brennan, who is President Barack Obama’s nominee to run the Central Intelligence Agency, said the Bulgarian investigation “exposes Hezbollah for what it is: a terrorist group that is willing to recklessly attack innocent men, women, and children, and that poses a real and growing threat not only to Europe, but to the rest of the world.”

US officials also repeated the long-standing US position that Washington wants the EU to designate Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird went further.

“We urge the European Union and all partners who have not already done so to list Hezbollah as a terrorist entity and prosecute terrorist acts committed by this inhumane organization to the fullest possible extent,” he said, adding that Canada would work with Bulgarian authorities given the apparent involvement of “a dual national living in Lebanon.”

“It is important that the EU respond robustly to an attack on European soil,” read a statement by British Foreign Secretary William Hague.   ”Every act of terror is an attack on our shared values.  In committing an attack, terrorists seek to undermine our resolve, but they should only serve to strengthen it. The Home Secretary and I will be talking to our EU colleagues about the measures we can now take to continue to make our citizens safer.”

Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s high representative for foreign and security policy, said the EU needs to assess the implications of the investigation seriously but stressed that any decision on adding Hezbollah to the EU list of terrorist organizations would require a unanimous decision by the foreign ministers of the 27 EU countries, whose next scheduled meeting is Feb. 18. Such a move would freeze Hezbollah assets and cut off funding.

France and Germany, wary of coming under increased pressure to do so, had pressured investigators not to publicly name Hezbollah as responsible for the bombing, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

Linking Hezbollah to the attack is likely to escalate tensions between Israel and Iran, and provoke diplomatic headaches within Europe.

The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization. The EU does not, and linking the group to the Bulgarian attack will increase pressure on it to do so. France and Germany had pressured investigators not to publicly name Hezbollah as responsible for the bombing, according to a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

For Hezbollah, the accusation comes at a horrible time.

Despite its formidable weapons arsenal and political clout in Lebanon, the group’s credibility and maneuvering space has been significantly reduced in recent years, largely because of the war in neighboring Syria but also because of unprecedented challenges at home.

Hezbollah still suffers from the fallout of a month-long 2006 war with Israel, in which it was blamed by many in the country for provoking an unnecessary conflict by kidnapping soldiers from the border area.

Since then, the group has come under increasing pressure at home to disarm, leading to sectarian tensions between Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah supporters and Sunni supporters from the opposing camp that have often spilled into deadly street fighting.

The civil war in Syria, the main transit point of weapons brought from Iran to Hezbollah, presents the group with its toughest challenge since its 1982 inception. Hezbollah’s support for the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad has proved costly and the group’s reputation has taken a severe beating at home. In addition, Assad’s problems could affect its main supply route from Syria; last week, Israeli warplanes bombed what was believed to be a shipment of sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles headed to Hezbollah.

The announcement also came ahead of a UN-backed tribunal for four Hezbollah members allegedly involved in the 2005 Beirut truck bombing that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was then Lebanon’s top Sunni politician. Hezbollah denies the charges and has refused to hand over the suspects.

New troubles for Hezbollah could also add to Iran’s international isolation. The Iranian regime is already under international sanctions for its suspect nuclear program, and has seen its position weaken due to its close ties with the Syrian regime. Its association with Hezbollah will likely further hurt Iran’s international image.

Wainwright warned the attack, along with a wave of attacks against Israelis around the world in the past year, is an indication of a real threat to Israelis and Jews in Europe.

“Even if it’s not Hezbollah, it has still obviously been carried out by an organization with some capability in the world, so the threat remains,” Wainwright said. “I don’t want to exaggerate the scale of that threat, but I think law enforcement authorities — government authorities — should take notice of this incident and prepare for the possibility at least of similar attacks in Europe.”

US, Israel to hold anti-mine drills in ‘Mideast waterways’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Commander of US military’s Central Command says exercise to focus on keeping oil shipping lanes open in case Iran, terror groups deploy mines to disrupt tanker traffic

Yoav Zitun, Reuters

The US military announced on Monday an anti-mine exercise in “the Middle East’s international waterways” in May with more than 20 nations participating, the latest show of global will to keep waterways open as tensions with Iran simmer.

Israel‘s Navy is also expected to take part in the drill, which was characterized as defensive and a follow-up to the IMCMEX 12 exercise held last September, focused on keeping oil shipping lanes open by clearing mines that potentially Iran, or even terror groups, might deploy to disrupt tanker traffic.

“This year’s effort will reaffirm the ongoing, global cooperation that this mission enjoys with the international community’s strong support for free trade,” General James Mattie, commander of the US military’s Central Command, said in a statement.

US officials have in the past sought to play down any link between the drills and ongoing tensions with Iran, which is pushing forward with a nuclear program the West fears is aimed at giving it the capability to build an atomic bomb. Tehran says the program is peaceful.

But the anti-mine exercises are widely seen as a clear show of determination by a broad coalition of states to counter any attempt Iran might make to disrupt Gulf shipping in response to an Israeli or US strike on its nuclear facilities – a form of retaliation Iran has repeatedly threatened.

In January Iran held a five-day sea maneuver near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, during which it fired a “Ghader” anti-ship missile with a range of 200 kilometers (120 miles). The Iranians claim the missile is capable of sinking large warships.

The Strait of Hormuz, which is located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, the Strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two-mile buffer zone.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 2009 some 33% of all seaborne traded oil, or 17% of all oil traded worldwide, flowed through the Strait.

Over the past few years Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait, prompting the US to send another aircraft carrier to the region.

Central Command said the drill in May, IMCMEX 13, would focus on mine countermeasures, as well as maritime security operations and protecting maritime infrastructure. It did not provide further details.

Confronting Turkey – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

Obama to discuss Iran, Syria during his Israel visit amid spiraling tensions.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 5, 2013, 10:58 PM (GMT+02:00)

Talking at UN Headquarters last September

The day Israel announced the posting of extra Iron Dome and Patriot anti-missile interceptors in its northern regions, Tuesday, Feb. 5, the White House in Washington disclosed that US President Barack Obama would be visiting Israel in the spring. The visit had been discussed when Obama phoned Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Jan. 28 to congratulate him on his success in Israel’s recent election.
The communique went on to say that the US president was coming to discuss issues of common interest such as furthering the peace process but added, the start of Obama’s second term offers an opportunity to reaffirm Israel’s close relationship with the US and to discuss major issues like Syria and Iran.”

debkafile translates this as referring to the chemical weapons in the hands of Syria and most likely Hizballah as well as Iran’s nuclear program. The date of his visit was not released.
debkafile’s sources have divided the White House bulletin into two parts: security and political.
The reference to Syria and Iran as the “major issues” to be discussed in the framework of the “close relationship” points to Washington and Jerusalem being on the same wavelength on the military actions taken by Israel in Syria last week and those still to come.

It is also a signal from the White House to Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah that in so far as those three allies are planning reprisals for those actions, they will find the United States standing behind Israel.
The IDF command’s announcement expanding the areas of northern Israeli under the anti-missile interceptor shield was released shortly before the White House communiqué and during Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz  talks at US military chiefs in Washington.

According to the IDF bulletin, an extra Patriot missile interceptor and a third Iron Dome battery was deployed in Lower Galilee, a region which covers key towns north of Tel Aviv: Afula, Nazareth, Yoqn’am and Hadera. Batteries were posted earlier outside Haifa and areas of Upper Galilee closer to the Syrian and Lebanese borders.

The Israeli military command is therefore taking into account that some two million Israelis are potentially in danger of missile attack.
The Obama administration cannot be sure if the president’s visit, his first since 2008, will take place before or after a possible confrontation between Israel and Iran, Syria and Hizballah.
As for the political message, the White House announced the coming presidential visit on the day that the newly-elected Israeli Knesset held its first sitting in Jerusalem. It belied the propaganda pumped out by Netanyahu’s political foes throughout the election campaign, accusing him of souring ties with the Obama administration.

By announcing the coming visit at this time, President Obama showed the party leaders who are hanging tough in talks for a coalition government that Netanyahu has his confidence and support and the two leaders are in close rapport on major issues.
Last year, debkafile, alone of any other publication, disclosed that Obama and Netanyahu had reached an understanding to embark on regional initiatives in a spirit of partnership straight after the Israeli election.
President Obama’s trip will also include the West Bank and Jordan.