For Iran, all the world’s an anti-Semitic stage | Daniel S. Mariaschin | Ops & Blogs | The Times of Israel.

The United Nations has become a favored platform for Iran to spread its ongoing message of anti-Semitism. And why not? The world body has countless conferences and meetings each year, with global media in attendance, an easy megaphone for Tehran to commandeer to get its message across: that Israel and the Jews are to blame for all of the world’s problems — past, present and future.

Most recently, the Tehran regime displayed its Israel/Jewish obsession via a speech by Iranian Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi at an event in conjunction with the UN International Day Against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking.

Rahimi said the Talmud teaches Jews that they are a superior race. In his remarks, he also blamed the Talmud for the worldwide spread of illicit drugs, reportedly claiming that “Zionists” firmly control the illegal drug trade. He is quoted as saying:

The Islamic Republic of Iran will pay for anybody who can research and find one single Zionist who is an addict. They do not exist. This is the proof of their involvement in drugs trade.

It was reassuring to see that, this time, Iran’s hateful rhetoric did not escape condemnation by top global leaders. The European Union’s high representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, responded and reiterated “the EU’s absolute commitment to combating racism and anti-Semitism.”

Other global leaders quickly spoke out against the outrageous comments. But much more action is needed.

Too often Iran’s vile words are left unchecked.

Why are global forums giving Iran the stage in the first place? Time after time, Iran abuses the privilege and responsibilities that come with membership in the United Nations.

Iran can claim no credentials as a good global citizen. It is the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, a fact we are reminded of at this time of year when we commemorate the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires. The Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) building was bombed in July 1994, and, overwhelmingly, evidence singles out top Iranian officials for a direct role in the attack that killed 85 and wounded 300. As the home to the heart of the largest Jewish community in all of Latin America, the AMIA attack was symbolic of Iran’s hatred of Israel and Jews.

There is a connection between hatred of Jews and of Israel, and threatening their destruction. And it is this correlation that global leaders need to focus on when it comes to Iran. Words matter, and we cannot ever assume that Iran’s threats are empty.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of course has the most name-recognition when it comes to publicly spouting anti-Israel venom. Ahmadinejad’s avowal that Israel must be wiped off the map and his Holocaust denial (which he reaffirms nearly annually at the United Nations in New York at the start of the General Assembly), coupled with his nation’s disregard for the human rights of its own citizens, make for a somber reality.

But such repugnant views are part and parcel of Iran’s policies that permeate every aspect of its leadership. Speeches such as Rahimi’s represent the agenda of a country that is ramping up its nuclear weapons production. Soon, if not stopped, those toxic words will have the most deadly muscle behind them.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spouts anti-Israel propaganda regularly. In February, according to WND.com, a news website used by some major media, a top Khamenei strategist said it would be justified by Islamic law to kill all Jews and destroy Israel. Khamenei has also publicly referred to the “cancerous tumor” of Israel.

Senior officers of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, an arm of Iran’s military that enforces Tehran’s policies, also regularly tout the regime’s extreme views. The Guard asserts itself worldwide on behalf of Tehran and spreads anti-Israel propaganda far and wide. The Guard’s power and deep financial resources enforce Tehran’s strategy.

After a new series of missile tests, Revolutionary Guard General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said Iran would not hesitate to “wipe them [Israel] off the face of the earth,” if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear production facilities, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA and other news reports.

The tone taken by Iran — the seemingly gleeful challenge to Israel — is abhorrent and cause for alarm. Anti-Israel venom appears to be fundamental to the ideology of the Tehran regime. To what end?

Here’s one way to send the Iranians a clear message: Deny them the platforms from which they spout their vile rhetoric. At the very least, world leaders should simply get up and walk out.

Rogue arms dealer Iran elected to UN panel negotiating international treaty on arms trading | The Times of Israel.

( And we thought the UN couldn’t be more grotesque ? – JW )

15-member team currently at work at UN HQ in New York. It’s ‘like choosing Bernie Madoff to police fraud on the stock market,’ says UN watchdog group, urging Ban Ki-moon to intervene

Iranian navy frigate IS Alvand passing through Egypt’s Suez Canal in February 2011 (photo credit: AP file photo)

In what one critic called a move akin to placing Bernie Madoff in charge of thwarting fraud on the stock market, Iran has been elected as one of the 15 members of the United Nation’s Arms Trade Treaty conference.

It was chosen for the conference, currently under way in New York, precisely as the UN Security Council slammed Tehran’s illegal arms deals, including shipments to Syria, and while the international community continues to censure and sanction Iran for its refusal to halt its nuclear program.

The Army Trade Treaty Conference aims to negotiate an international treaty regulating arms dealing. The vote on membership in the conference was held last Tuesday, and Iran was elected, alongside Japan and South Korea, as one of three countries representing the Asian group.

The choice of Iran was condemned by UN Watch, a Geneva-based monitoring group. “Right after a UN Security Council report found Iran guilty of illegally transferring guns and bombs to Syria, which is now murdering thousands of its own people, it defies logic, morality and common sense for the UN to now elect this same regime to a global post in the regulation of arms transfers,” said Hillel Neuer, UN Watch’s executive director.

On Friday, a UN report written by members of the Security Council’s Iran sanctions committee found that “Iran has continued to defy the international community through illegal arms shipments.” At least two of these cases involved Syria, according to the report, which underlined the point that the regime of President Basher Assad “continues to be the central party to illicit Iranian arms transfers.”

“This is like choosing Bernie Madoff to police fraud on the stock market,” Neuer said.

UN Watch, which first reported on Iran’s participation in the conference, called upon UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to condemn the decision to give Iran “a position of responsibility in regulating the arms trade.” Ban should remember that the UN Security Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran for its refusal to halt its nuclear program, Neuer said.

The Iranian media, on the other hand, have been having a field day with Tehran’s election to the conference, boasting that their country “has been elected as deputy for the talks.”

The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), for example, reported that “some 193 participating countries unanimously voted in favor of Iran during the fourth day of the meeting under way in the United Nations headquarters, to draft a bill on regulating arms trade in the world.”

PM: P5+1 has decreased, weakened… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By JPOST.COM STAFF

07/08/2012 14:17

Netanyahu reiterates during meeting with ADL representatives that P5+1 should go back to original demand that Tehran totally stop enriching uranium, export all previously enriched material.

Photo: Marc Israel Sellem

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel and the P5+1 countries are operating for the common good against Iran’s nuclear program but expressed concern that the P5+1 has decreased and weakened demands made in the previous rounds of negotiations.

Netanayhu made the comments during a meeting in Jerusalem with a group of Anti-Defamation League Regional Board Chairs from around the US led by National Chair Robert G. Sugarman and National Director Abraham H. Foxman.

P5+1 – the US, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany – held negotiations with Iranian officials in Istanbul last week to discuss the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

The prime minister reiterated that the P5+1 should go back to its original demand that Iran totally stop enriching uranium and export all previously enriched material and dismantle the underground nuclear facility near Qom.

Netanyahu answered a range of questions during the meeting on issues including Iran, proposals for legislation replacing the Tal Law and African migrants.

While Israel continues to say the Iranians are using talks with the world powers to waste time, Jerusalem is tellingly still not calling for them to be discontinued, even as last week’s “technical talks” in Istanbul led to nothing more than an agreement to meet again.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton issued a statement shorty after the talks saying that a “full day” of “technical discussions” went on until 1 a.m., and that the P5+1 provided further details of their proposals given to Iran two months ago, and that Iran shared “further details of their proposal.”

Experts, the statement read, “explored positions on a number of technical subjects.”

The negotiators in Istanbul last week discussed issues such as Iran’s formerly clandestine Fordow facility near Qom, where high-grade enrichment is taking place.

The six powers want the bunkered, underground facility closed, but there are disagreements with the Iranian side on how this could be done or what exactly is going on in Fordow.

Herb Keinon contributed to this report

Book: Mossad agents targeted Iranian scientists – Israel News, Ynetnews.

New book by US-Israeli journalists claims Mossad agents carried out killings of Iranian scientists; ‘killings too sensitive for Mossad to share with foreign freelancers,’ authors argue

Orly Azulay

Israeli Mossad special agents are behind the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, a new book by US-Israeli CBS reporter Dan Raviv and former intelligence correspondent Yossi Melman argues.

Titled “Spies Against Armageddon,” the book claims that contrary to reports linking the killings to Iranian dissidents working for Israel, it is very unlikely that Israel would have contracted out such sensitive operations through a third party dissident group.

In their book, the writers claim that their in-depth study of 50 years of assassinations by Israel’s foreign-espionage agency yields the conclusion that the 20 suspectsnow being held by the Iranian government are not the killers.

“The methods, communications, transportation, and even the innovative bombs used in the Tehran killings are too sensitive for the Mossad to share with foreign freelancers,” Raviv and Melman wrote.

Therefore, the writers estimate that the assassinations of physicists and nuclear scientists in Iran have been what Israelis call “blue and white” operations, referring to the colors of their nation’s flag.

In one chapter of the book, the authors claim that despite the fact that Iran has no diplomatic relations with Israel and bans any visits by Israelis, Mossad operatives have had no trouble entering and leaving the country. They further said that Israel holds a hidden safe house in Iran which allows for Mossad agents to keep safe while executing the assassinations.

The book further reveals the Mossad’s close cooperation with Kurds and other ethnic minority groups inside Iran, stating that the Mossad believes that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

The authors further wrote of the close relationship between the Mossad and the CIA when explaining the efforts to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Clinton: Syria on brink of catastrophe as rebels advance. The region in danger.

DEBKAfile Special Report July 8, 2012, 12:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

Hillary Clinton warns of catastrophe to region

“There is still a chance to save the Syrian state from a catastrophic assault that would be very dangerous not only to Syria, but to the region,” said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Tokyo, Sunday, July 8.

She did not elaborate, but stressed earlier, “… the opposition is getting more effective in defense of themselves and going on the offensive against the Syrian military.”

debkafile’s military sources note that her over-the-top language comes at a pivotal moment in the Syrian conflict: The rebels are winning more and more territory and not only encircling Damascus but fighting inside the capital. To save itself, the Assad regime which still controls the army outside Damascus may in desperation open up its arsenals and deploy weapons of mass destruction in a bid to drive off the rebels while also spreading the flames to other parts of the region, including Israel.

Persian Gulf sources reported Sunday that inside the capital, the Syrian army no longer moves troops in military convoys for fear of rebel attack. They now travel in unmarked civilian vehicles. Some officers prefer to stay on base for fear of assassination or kidnap on their way home.

Clinton did not explain how the rebels were suddenly able in the last few days to develop their ubiquitous capabilities, rising numbers and military organization – or where they procured weapons for their wholesale offensive against the Syrian army.

According to debkafile’s intelligence and military sources, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have substantially stepped up the flow of munitions to the rebels. They are reaching combatants inside Syria as well as the trainees at Turkish military facilities.
Their numbers have, furthermore, risen to 50,000 armed men who are efficiently organized in 17 brigades. Fighting inside the country are 260 military units, each consisting of one or two battalions, which mostly range from 1,000-1,500 men – depending on the arena. Some are brigades of 3,000 men.
By the first week of July, the rebel army had put in place an efficient logistical system:

1. The Free Syrian Army had been able to establish a geographical presence in all of Syria’s provinces, barring the minority regions (Kurds and Druzes) which are outside the conflict, and the pro-regime Alawite region.
2.  A regional operational command was working in all those provinces (260). It was equipped with hi-tech communications connecting the provinces and linked to the FSA’s high command in Turkey.
3.  A well-organized arms smuggling ring was transferring weapons from one command to another as required for local attacks on Syrian military and security forces. This pipeline is fed by Turkish, Saudi and Qatari suppliers via Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Turkey..
4.  A foreign “military adviser” is posted at each provincial command center. They are usually special forces experts mainly from the British, French, Turkish, Saudi and Qatari armies.
Up until last month, the rebels were fighting primarily to sever a strategic strip of land from Idlib in the north to Deraa in the south in order to tie down the regime in Damascus and its Allawite loyalist forces in the west and center and cut it off from the rest of the country.

This goal has now been abandoned. Today, the anti-Assad forces are concentrating on a single objective: The regime’s overthrow.

via Damascus and Tehran: The war for military preparedness.

Previously I pondered as what Iran could do even if it possessed a nuclear bomb. Of course, it would not do anything even if it’s on brink of political craziness or becomes frightened of the regional and international changes.
Yet Tehran makes mistakes that can be a game changer. While Iran has dedicated all time and resources to gain military prowess, it failed to unify its social constituents. It suffers from an acute weakness that is a source of security concerns.

All international relations theories, diplomatic negotiations theories and winning cards are betraying Iran today and are putting Iran to face political, oil, and economic sanctions. Iran does not have many choices but messing with the regional and energy security. This is particularly true after it lost the capability of selling its oil.

To add salt to wound, other importing countries are trading the Iranian oil with commodities rather than with U.S. dollars. The decision to do this kind of tradeoff is a statement of the weakness of the political capabilities of Iran. All indicators show that Assad’s regime is over and the Iraqi prime minister is on retreat not in favor of Sunni forces but in favor of civil and democratic forces. In Syria, the choice is for the civil and democratic diverse society.

According to some Israeli intelligence information, Assad called the Russian leadership saying that he had a plan and pledged to prevail over the protesters within a couple of months. Assad decided to get rid of the military officers who started complaining of a lack of a solution. He gave them a leave provided that they stick to their houses.

In their place, Assad appointed the thugs ordering them to implement all force at their disposal to wipe out the protesters. Therefore, the coming months are expected to be bloody ones. And yet this will only mark the end of Assad and the beginning of a genuine political settlement.

Tehran, which loses some $80 million a day, is also facing a catastrophic reality caused by the political, oil, and economic sanctions. It also realizes that Assad is on retreat and that Moscow is negotiating with the Syrian opposition and the army.

Iran will only have the worse options and it will not resort to any of these options as its domestic affairs are deteriorating. Various ethnic and national groups within Iran are adopting wait and see strategy. They will decide their course of action once Assad’s grip on power ends. Not surprisingly, Tehran throws all of its power behind Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. It remains to be seen as to what would happen in case al-Maliki falls down and a civic state begins to take root in Syria.

Will Tehran close the Strait of Hormuz? Of course no. Iran does not dare do that in the first place even if Iran has the capability to affect this policy. Notwithstanding statements uttered by leaders of the Iranian revolutionary guard, Iran will unlikely close the strait. It is about time for Iran to realize that the stinging sanctions imposed by the West are a result of its policies rather than an act of war. The West has given Iran many opportunities and Iran failed to seize them. The way the west deals with Iran is the opposite of the way it dealt with Saddam Hussein.

Needless to say that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz will not hurt that Saudi Arabia. Riyadh can easily transport from 20 to 30 percent of its oil away from the strait. United Arab Emirates dealt with the situation by building a 380-kilometer pipeline with a capacity of transporting some 1.5 millions barrels a day out of 2.5 millions barrels that Emirates produces a day.

For this reason Iran adopts a bombastic and grandstanding attitude by threatening Turkey, the American presence in the Gulf, and wiping out Israel from the map. That said, Iran is looking forward to the Ankara meeting as a watershed in the dialogue with the west. The problem, however, will continue as the Iranian-European talks are not expected to lift sanctions on Iran.

Some sources confirm that Assad and his family themselves are under administrative detention and that a battalion of the Republican Guard control the President’s movement and his communication.

The authority is actually in the hand of his brother, Maher. Therefore, some sources confirm that placing high-ranking officers under administrative detention and instating thugs in their place is nothing but the plan for the end.

The international community will not keep silence this time. The Syrian media attempt to show Assad along with his wife playing sports will not deceive the rest of the people of the gravity of the situation. Still, the situation is difficult and the west is waiting from an internal coup in Syria especially after Moscow conducted dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhoods of Syria. Equally important, a national unity government means the exclusiveness of Assad from the political arena.

(The writer is a Saudi columnist. The article was published in Arab News on July. 07, 2012)

U.S. court fines Iran $813 million for 1983 Lebanon attack.

Saturday, 07 July 2012

In 1983, 241 American soldiers, including 220 Marines, were killed in a bomb attack in their barracks in Lebanon. (AFP)

The evidence shows that we have not succeeded in Syria, says Kofi Annan | The Times of Israel.

( Really?   You don’t say!  Wait till you read his solution… – JW )

UN envoy says Iran is a major player and should be part of the solution

Kofi Annan, the UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy for Syria. (photo credit: AP/Hussein Malla)

BEIRUT (AP) — Special U.N. envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged in an interview published Saturday that the international community’s efforts to find a political solution to the escalating violence in Syria have failed.

Annan told the French daily Le Monde that more attention needed to be paid to the role of longtime Syrian ally Iran, and that countries supporting military actors in the conflict were making the situation worse.

“The evidence shows that we have not succeeded,” he said.

Annan, the special envoy for the United Nations and the Arab League, is the architect of the most prominent international plan to end the crisis in Syria, which activists say has killed more than 14,000 people since March, 2011.

His six-point plan was to begin with a cease-fire in mid-April between government forces and rebels seeking to topple the regime of President Bashar Assad. But the truce never took hold, and now the almost 300 U.N. observers sent to monitor the cease-fire are confined to their hotels because of the escalating violence.

Activists reported at least 67 people killed on Friday alone, after some 800 people last week.

Annan defended the unarmed observers, saying it was not their job to stop the violence, but to monitor the sides’ adherence to the truce.

He offered few suggestions on how the plan could be salvaged, only saying that Iran “should be part of the solution” and that criticism too often focused on Russia, which has stood by the regime.

“Very few things are said about other countries that send arms and money and weigh on the situation on the ground,” he said, without naming any specific countries.

Iran is a longtime Syrian ally that has stood by the regime throughout the uprising. It is unclear what role Annan envisions for Iran. Tehran’s close ties could make it an interlocutor with the regime, though the U.S. has often refused to let the Islamic Republic attend conferences about the Syria crisis.

Russia provides the Assad regime with most of its weapons. No countries are known to be arming the rebels, though some Gulf Arab states have spoken positively of doing so. The U.S. and other Western nations have sent non-lethal aid, like communications equipment.

The Syrian uprising began in March, 2011, when people first took to the streets to call for political reforms. Since then, the government has waged a brutal crackdown, and many in the opposition have taken up arms, sidelining peaceful activists and changing the conflict into an armed insurgency.

Scores of independent rebel groups now operate in the country, regularly attacking regime bases and convoys.

Activists in Syria on Saturday reported fierce government offensives to try to retake rebellious areas outside of the northern city of Aleppo and near the capital Damascus, as well as government shelling across the country.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on an activist network inside Syria, called the bombardment of a number of villages in Aleppo province “the most violent” since the army launched a recent campaign to retake control of the area.

The group said that rebels in the area had killed many regime soldiers in recent months. It did not provide casualties figures for the recent fighting. It said two rebels and one civilian were killed in clashes in the northern city of Izaz. Five government soldiers also were killed when rebels blew up their vehicle.

The activist claims could not be independently verified. The Syrian government rarely comments on its military operations and blames the uprising on foreign-backed gangs seeking to weaken the country.

The violence has raised fears that the unrest will spill over into Lebanon, which has extensive sectarian and political ties to its eastern neighbor.

On Saturday, shells fired from inside Syria killed two Lebanese civilians and wounded 10 others, security officials said, in the latest incident of violence spilling across the border.

One woman was killed when a shell hit her home in the Wadi Khalid area of northeast Lebanon, also wounding five others. Another shell hit the nearby village of al-Hisheh, killing an 8-year-old boy and wounding his father and four other children.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government regulations.

Despite mounting international condemnation, Assad’s regime has largely held together. On Saturday, however, France announced the defection of Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, an Assad confidant and son of a former defense minister who helped ease Assad into power.

Tlass is the highest ranking official to abandon the regime so far, and Western powers and anti-regime activists hoped his departure would encourage others to leave, too.

News of the defection largely overshadowed an international conference in Paris on Saturday attended by the U.S., its European and Arab partners and members of Syria’s fractured opposition.

The so-called “Friends of Syria” said they would provide means for the opposition in Syria to better communicate among themselves and with the outside world and increase humanitarian aid.

They also called on the U.N. Security Council to adopt a resolution that would force the regime to comply with the two peace plans that have been largely ignored by both sides in the conflict.

Syrian allies Russia and China would likely veto any resolution seen as too critical of the Syrian government, as they have in the past.

___

Associated Press writer Angela Charlton contributed to this report from Paris.

Gulf sabers rattle as Iran sanctions bite | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Iran and the United States might be talking up their readiness for war in the Gulf but beneath the rhetoric, all sides appear keen to avoid conflict and prevent accidental escalation – at least for now.

This week, a string of hawkish Iranian statements – including a renewed threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and destroy U.S. bases “within minutes” of an attack – helped push benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 for the first time since June.

Western military officials and analysts say Tehran does have the capability to wreak regional havoc. But the current saber-rattling, they believe, is more about moving markets and trying to give the West second thoughts over the ever-tightening oil sanctions aimed at cutting back Tehran’s nuclear program.

A European Union ban on trading Iranian oil announced earlier in the year entered force on July 1, while the United States is also tightening financial restrictions. Even Asian buyers such as China that had hoped to keep taking Iranian crude appear to be scaling back purchases, struggling to find shipping insurance or banking – leaving Iran increasingly isolated.

“What we tend to see is that rhetoric from Iran tends to peak when you have developments around the sanctions issue,” U.S. Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Admiral Mark Fox told a naval conference at London’s Royal United Services Institute.

“We saw this in 2010, we saw it in January this year. They use rhetoric and military exercises to make their point … but it is always best to be prepared, and we always are.”

Washington has highlighted its own military buildup, pointing to new minesweepers, patrol craft and the assault ship USS Ponce joining its Fifth Fleet, which includes the USS Abraham Lincoln and Enterprise carrier battle groups.

Iran has often threatened reprisals for any Israeli or U.S.-led strike on its nuclear sites, whose activities it says are purely peaceful but the West suspects are geared to developing arms. But this week’s statements were more aggressive than most.

In one headline on its website, state-run Press TV described Western warships in the Gulf as “sitting ducks”. An Iranian parliamentary committee said it would pass a bill allowing Tehran to block passage through Hormuz, the conduit for all Gulf oil exports, to ships of any country backing sanctions.

“Iran is essentially reminding the U.S. and its regional allies that if it were attacked, it is capable of responding,” said Michael Connell, an Iran specialist at the Centre for Naval Analysis, which provides analysis to military and other clients as part of larger U.S. government-funded think tank, CNA.

“There is also a domestic component – reassuring their own populace that their armed forces are respected and feared.”

Four months before a U.S. presidential election in which the economy could prove the deciding factor, Iran probably sees the ability to influence global oil prices as a potent and much more usable weapon than actual military action.

“As the impact of European sanctions … begins to create some economic hardship for Tehran, the timing of this announcement suggests that Iran is trying to imply that it in turn can cause economic pain for the world,” said Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College.

MIDDLE EAST “TINDERBOX”

Whatever the intent, the growing number of military forces in close proximity brings obvious dangers.

“The risk of Iran actually carrying out the actions they are threatening is low,” said Ari Ratner, a former Middle East adviser to the State Department earlier in the Obama administration and now a fellow at the left-leaning Truman National Security Foundation.

“However, there is an increasing danger that this rhetoric or the increasing provocative actions by the Iranian side … could result in a miscalculation … The Gulf is becoming a tinderbox and an accidental spark may come at any time.”

Military experts say the opening salvos of any such conflict could prove hugely damaging, with even sophisticated warships vulnerable to suicide speedboats, midget submarines or truck-mounted missiles. But the ultimate outcome, they say, would never be in doubt: a massive U.S.-led retaliation that left Iran’s military devastated.

For all the talk, however, naval officers say tensions in the Gulf between U.S.-led forces and their Iranian counterparts are if anything lower than several years or even months ago, with clear signals that Tehran itself is holding back.

Last week, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Jonathan Greenert told a news briefing that the Iranian navy continued to be “professional and courteous”. Confrontations with Revolutionary Guard naval units – in which they came too close to U.S. warships for comfort – were also down in number, he said.

Despite occasional talk of Iran refusing to allow U.S. carriers through Hormuz, U.S. naval officers say that in fact Iranian units appear to have had instructions to steer well clear when the giant ships transit the strait.

When foreign warplanes approach Iranian air space, they find themselves swiftly warned off with a simple but firm radio warning in English.

For its part, the U.S. Navy says it has rescued dozens of Iranian sailors from Gulf and Indian Ocean waters, including several from a dhow held captive by Somali pirates.

“I have never worked harder to prevent a conflict,” said Vice Admiral Fox, formerly commander of U.S. naval forces in the region. “We are going out of our way to send the message that we are not there to over pressurize (the situation).”

The current increase in forces in the Gulf, naval insiders say, was planned months ago – but tough choices lie ahead.

Washington says it plans to keep two carriers in the region for at least the next fiscal year and will shortly decide on the next. Maintaining those forces in the longer run, particularly given the planned U.S. “pivot” to Asia, may be harder to sustain.

But the focus on Hormuz, some suggest, may simply be missing the bigger picture.

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED?

“Yes, we’re seeing another spike in saber-rattling from Iran and to a lesser extent from the United States,” said Henry Smith, regional analyst at London-based consultancy Control Risks. “But neither of those countries has any intention of starting a war in the Persian Gulf. The country you need to watch as the protagonist is Israel.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has long said it reserves the right to strike directly at Iran if it does not believe Washington and others are doing enough – through diplomacy or sanctions – to stop it going nuclear.

Such action could still take place this year, despite doubts among many analysts that Israel has the capability to deliver a truly knockout blow and could simply end up motivating the Iranians to work faster to achieve nuclear capability.

But there are growing perceptions that this prospect may already be receding, with Israel and the United States likely instead continuing to rely on covert tactics such as the computer worm Stuxnet to slow Iran’s nuclear progress.

Netanyahu may himself already have decided to wait, hoping that a newly elected Republican president, Mitt Romney, would prove more supportive and at least give Israel the sophisticated bunker-busting munitions needed to reach buried laboratories.

With perhaps no one genuinely willing to risk escalation for now, the face-off in the Gulf is likely to continue largely unchanged, albeit with periodic market-moving bouts of high profile tension.

Even if an accidental clash were to down an aircraft or damage a warship, some believe all parties would find a way to swiftly de-escalate.

“This rise in tensions was to be expected,” said Reva Bhalla, head of strategy at U.S.-based geopolitical risk consultancy Stratfor. “But to an extent, both sides are indulging in theatre. They know what they are doing and they have too much to lose from an actual confrontation.”

Not everyone, however, believes that pattern is sustainable.

With Tehran believed to be moving closer to the ability to produce a workable nuclear device – most intelligence services believe Iran has not so far made a political decision to do so – and sanctions inflicting worsening economic hardship on ordinary Iranians, they say something must eventually give.

Pushed too far, the fear is that the Islamic Republic’s leaders might start a fight in the hope of uniting the people behind them against a common enemy.

“We’re essentially backing them into a corner,” said one veteran naval officer with much experience in the region. “As an old fighter pilot, we used to say: ‘When you are out of options, redefine the fight that you’re in’ … They’ll have to either capitulate or do something unexpected. I believe they’ll do anything if it comes down to defending the regime’s existence.”

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

US sends further reinforcements … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Photo: REUTERS

DUBAI – A US navy ship that had been slated for decommissioning has been sent instead to the Gulf to help mine-clearing operations, the US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain said, the latest move in a gradual US build-up as tensions with Iran smoulder.

A fleet spokesman in Manama said the USS Ponce, described as an “afloat forward staging base” (AFSB), had arrived on Thursday after undergoing refitting for its new mission.

“Ponce’s primary mission is to support mine countermeasures operations and other missions, such as the ability to provide repair service to other deployed units,” the spokesman said in a statement. “Additionally, Ponce also has the capability to embark and launch small riverine craft.”

Vice Admiral John Miller, commander of regional navy forces, said the Ponce boasted “enhanced capability to conduct maritime security operations, and gives us greater flexibility to support a wide range of contingencies with our regional partners”.

Four US minesweepers arrived in the Gulf last month to bolster the Fifth Fleet and ensure the safety of shipping routes in a waterway through which 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil exports flow.

They arrived amid a flaring war of nerves between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s disputed nuclear energy program and Iranian threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, the slender oil shipping channel out of the Gulf, in retaliation for a new European Union ban on its oil exports.

The four minesweepers were ticketed for a seven-month deployment in an area of operations that includes the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

Tensions have simmered in the Gulf with big-power diplomacy to ease the nuclear dispute at an impasse and Israel renewing veiled threats to attack Iranian atomic sites from the air if sanctions and negotiations fail to curb Iran’s nuclear advances.

A string of hawkish Iranian statements – including a renewed threat to close the Strait and destroy US bases in the region “within minutes” of an attack – over the past week helped thrust benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 for the first time since June.

Iran has repeatedly warned of reprisals for any Israeli or US-led strike on its nuclear installations, whose activities it says are purely peaceful but the West suspects are geared to developing the means to produce nuclear arms.