WarSclerotic

Israeli official denies report that US presented Israel with plans for possible attack on Iran – The Washington Post.

By Associated Press, Updated: Sunday, July 29, 2:38 PM

US defense law to equip Israel with refueling jets – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Legislation aiming to enhance US-Israeli security cooperation was more than an attempt by Obama to upstage Romney; it allows Israel to buy equipment that could facilitate Iran strike

Yitzhak Benhorin

WASHINGTON – US President Barack Obama‘s well-publicized signing of a bill aiming to enhance security cooperation between the US and Israel appears to have been timed to upstage Republican challenger Mitt Romney‘s trip to Israel, but officials say the measure was more than just a strategic photo op. The legislation could mark a significant step towards acquiring military equipment Israel has long sought to have.  

“This was a historical landmark in the defense relations between the US and Israel,” said Amos Gilad, the director of policy and political-military affairs at the Defense Ministry.

The legislation, knowns as the “United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012,” allows Israel to purchase American KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft for the first time. Thus far, the Bush and Obama administrations refused to sell planes of this kind to the Jewish state, primarily in order to bar it from launching a massive aerial strike on Iran.

KC-135 refueling jet

In all likelihood, such a military operation would involve F-15I and F-16I fighter jets, as well as helicopters, all of which will have to refuel on their way to the Islamic Republic, and on the return trip. Mid-air refueling capabilities are therefore essential for the mission.

So far, Israel has had to buy used commercial Boeing 707 airliners and convert them into tanker jets, a far from ideal solution considering the planes were originally designed for passenger flights. Just last week an accidentoccurred during an exercise involving such aircraft.

But the road between the ratification of the legislation and an actual deal to buy or lease such planes is still long; it could be years before Israel gets its hands on such equipmnet. Nevertheless, the law has been put in place, and now the time has come to find funding and agree on the technical details.

The legislation, which provides for special aerial armament, is also likely to allow Israel to acquire bunker buster bombs, a privilege previously denied by the Bush Administration. Israel has also asked for cruise missiles, but as of yet it remains unclear whether this request will be granted. Moreover, the bill does not explicitly address Jerusalem’s request for satellite technology that can be used for intelligence purposes and to obtain real time missile warnings.

The law essentially requires the current administration and the next one to provide Israel with weapons systems, intelligence data and logistical aid. Every six months, the leaders in the US will have to report to Congress about the steps they have taken to implement the legislation.

Obama signs legislation (Photo: AFP)

The legislation, which was passed by a solid majority in both houses of Congress, specifies what the US government must do to in order to put the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security into practice. It explicitly asserts that the US must maintain Israel’s qualitative advantage in the military field, and especially when it comes military technology.

This assertion is significant considering the expansive arms deals that the US is in the process of signing with the Arabs states of the Gulf – deals that aim to protect the latter region from the Iranian threat. As part of these agreements, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emiratesand Kuwait are to receive new weapon systems that could upset the strategic balance in the region to Israel’s detriment.

It must be noted that the Obama Administration has been unprecedentedly responsive to Israel’s acquisition requests across the board, even prior to the latest legislation. And the incumbent president is willing to go much farther to accommodate Israel when it comes to missile defense; on Friday, during the bill’s signing in Washington, he announcedthat he is adding $70 million to bolster the production of Iron Dome batteries.

The timing and the ceremoniousness chosen for the signing of the bill is unmistakable. Throughout his term, Obama has given his stamp of approval to some 500 laws, most of which were signed hastily and informally. For the sake of comparison, when he allowed Israeli entrepreneurs to open small businesses in the US and bring their families along, no cameras were present. This time, the president exercised a campaign-season privilege to emphasize his commitment to Israel’s security.

But the content of the legislation is genuine, officials say.

Romeny and wife arriving in Israel (Photo: Reuters)

“This law has elements that are more important than money,” one Israeli official said. “Israel can, with the US’ help, to maintain its deterrence advantage in the face of potential enemys’ aggression. By cooperating with Israel, the US has obtained a reliable, democratic and technology-oriented partner in promoting its strategic interests.”

Defense Minister Ehud Barak has thanked Obama and Congress for the measure, being well aware that the statement would irk the US Republicans and Romney, who has arrived in Israel on Friday. Barak is to meet with US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the coming days, and the two are expected to discuss the law, as well as a possible strike on Iran.

Romney, whose trip is regarded as a showcase for his own pro-Israel stance ahead of the elections, is expected to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday.

An ill wind blows between US and Israeli intelligence over attack on Iran.

DEBKAfile Special Report July 29, 2012, 11:44 AM (GMT+02:00)

Duel over Iran attack

The acrimony reached a nadir with an unusually detailed Association Press report on July 28 quoting anonymous sources as stating, “The CIA considers Israel its No. 1 counterintelligence threat in the agency’s New East Division,” – the group that oversees spying across he Middle East.
Prime Minister Binyamin’s Office reviled its content, including allegations of Mossad intrusions of US officials’ homes, as “a lying report.”

This leak had two objectives, says debkafile:
1. To deter US presidential candidate Mitt Romney from using his visit to Israel Sunday and Monday July 29-30 to promise, if elected in November,  to review Jonathan Pollard’s life sentence for spying for Israel, which all previous US presidents have refused to do at the CIA’s behest. It has been suggested that he may be considering going on record with this pledge to win Jewish votes.
2.  To hit back at the Israel watchers dogging the footsteps of CIA agents planted in a widely-flung undercover network for picking up any clues that  Israeli preparations for a unilateral attack on Iran’s nuclear program are moving into operational phase.

Although American and Israeli officials habitually stress the commonalty of the two government’s decisions on Iran – and top US officials are again turning up in Israel every few days – President Barack Obama still can’t be sure that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak won’t take him off-guard by springing an attack at a date earlier than the one under discussion between them.
debkafile’s Washington sources report that October is often mentioned these days in the White House, the Pentagon and top military command as the month to watch. Persian Gulf capitals are also on guard for an October attack although they prefer an American to an Israeli strike.
High-ranking Saudi princes have been telling Western officials on recent visits to the kingdom that they received Washington’s assurance that the Israelis would strike first and the Americans join in later.

Riyadh has tried to persuade the Obama administration that the US must go first and do its utmost to keep the Israelis out of it altogether. The Saudis were told that Washington is doing what it can to hold Israel back but can’t be sure of succeeding.
Obama’s National Security Adviser Tom Donilon discussed Iran and Syria with the Israeli prime minister when he visited Jerusalem on July 14. He did indeed share with him the US contingency plan for an operation against Iran, as reported – except for one salient piece of information: He could not say whether or not the US President had decided to execute it.
The information he received from Netanyahu was that Israel is on the point of a decision to attack Iran but has not yet settled on a date.

July 26, twelve days later, Barak was more outspoken: Israel, he said, faced “tough and crucial decisions” about its security and future. “I am well aware of the difficulties involved in thwarting Iran’s attempts to acquire a nuclear weapon. However, it is clear to me without a doubt that dealing with the threat itself will be far more complicated, far more dangerous and far more costly in resources and human life than thwarting it.”

This was a broad hint that Israel no longer regarded action for preempting Iran’s nuclear program to be optional.  It came in response to the Islamic Republic’s steady advance towards weapons-grade uranium enrichment – up to 30 percent grade in recent months in parallel with nuclear negotiations with the world powers – and its published plans for producing Highly-Enriched Uranium (HEU) usable for propelling ships engines, but also for fueling nuclear bombs.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is the latest high-powered American official due to visit Israel. Wednesday, Aug. 1, he will sit down with Israeli leaders. They will no doubt continue talking about the date of an attack on Iran and try to pull US and Israeli timelines and plans together onto a single, agreed track.
But none of the discussions between the two governments has so far tied Israel down to an agreed date or plan of action. Netanyahu is holding tight to the option of a surprise attack – hence the dense network of CIA agents lurking behind every official and military corner in Israel. They are pouncing and reporting on the slightest clue to the IDF switching to operational mode for a strike on Iran.
debkafile’s Western intelligence sources, who don’t recall ever seeing so extensive an undercover CIA presence in Israel, report that Israeli security agencies have gone to extraordinary lengths to counter their access to classified information about IDF activities.
As a result of this duel, US and Israel spy agencies are at daggers drawn, as evinced in the AP report

Syrian rebels hold off government forces in Aleppo | The Times of Israel.

Kofi Annan expresses concerns over ‘imminent’ battle in country’s largest city, urges restraint

A damaged Syrian military tank is seen at the border town of Azaz, some 20 miles (32 kilometers) north of Aleppo, on Tuesday. (photo credit: AP Photo/Turkpix)

BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian government launched an offensive Saturday to retake rebel-held neighborhoods in the nation’s commercial hub of Aleppo, unleashing artillery, tanks and helicopter gunships against poorly armed opposition fighters.

Yet after a day of fighting, the rag-tag rebel forces remained in control of their neighborhoods in Syria’s largest city, said activists, suggesting they had successfully fought off the government’s initial assault.

The international community has raised an outcry about a possible massacre in this city of 3 million but acknowledged there was little they could do to stop the bloodshed. The foreign minister of Russia, a powerful ally of Syria, said it was “simply unrealistic” for the Syrian regime to cede control.

The state-controlled al-Watan newspaper celebrated the assault with a banner headline proclaiming the fight for Aleppo “the mother of all battles.”

The rebels are estimated to control between a third and a half of the neighborhoods in this sprawling city, especially a cluster in the northeast around Sakhour neighborhood and in the southwest.

They began their attempt to wrest this key city from the government’s control a week ago. About 162 people have been killed, mostly civilians, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which does not include soldiers in its toll. Some 19,000 people have been killed since the uprising began in March 2011, estimated the group.

For Saturday, activists estimate that at least two dozen have died so far in the day’s fighting.

Local activist Mohammed Saeed said the rebels have managed to keep the regime’s tanks at bay so far with rocket-propelled grenades.

“The army hasn’t been able to take any neighborhoods yet, there are too many from the Free Syrian Army,” Saeed said, referring to the rebels.

He estimated that about 1,000 fighters had poured into the city in the past few days to take on the Syrian army, which had been massing forces around the city ahead of its attack.

By the end of Saturday, according to the Observatory, the government appeared to have pulled back from its ground offensive and was resuming its bombardment of various neighborhoods with artillery. Attack helicopters pounded rebel positions.

There were few details about the attack in the state press, although it issued a long list of victories across the country against the “terrorists,” as the rebels are referred to, a sign of widespread fighting.

The international community has expressed growing concern that there could be major bloodshed if Syrian troops retake Aleppo. But Western nations and their allies have found themselves powerless to prevent the situation from deteriorating despite a series of diplomatic efforts, including a cease-fire agreement that never took effect.

Kofi Annan, who brokered the agreement, expressed concern Saturday about the weapons buildup in Aleppo. “I remind the parties to the conflict of their obligations under international humanitarian law and human rights law, and urge them to exercise restraint and avoid any further bloodshed.”

“I am concerned about reports of the concentration of troops and heavy weapons around Aleppo, in anticipation of an imminent battle,” Annan said in a statement, according to Reuters.

“The escalation of the military build-up in Aleppo and the surrounding area is further evidence of the need for the international community to come together to persuade the parties that only a political transition, leading to a political settlement, will resolve this crisis.”

In a statement, the Arab League expressed “deep dissatisfaction for the Syrian regime’s acts of oppression,” particularly the use of heavy weapons against its own people. It urged Syria “to stop the cycle of killing and violence and lift the siege off the Syrian neighborhoods under attack.”

The group’s deputy chief, Ahmed Ben Hali added that the Arab states were preparing a resolution in front of the United Nations General Assembly calling for the creation of safe havens to protect civilians and to apply further sanctions on the regime.

Measures passed in the General Assembly are largely symbolic and not binding. The West and its Arab allies have been unable to pass effective resolutions in the more powerful Security Council. China, and especially Syria’s close ally, Russia, have vetoed any attempt to sanction Bashar Assad’s regime.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday called the bloodshed in Aleppo a tragedy, but asked what else could the government do against the rebellion.

“Now the city of Aleppo is occupied by the armed opposition; another tragedy is imminent there,” he said. “How can it be hoped that in such a situation the government will simply give in, say ‘Okay, I wasn’t right, overthrow me, change the regime — it’s simply unrealistic.”

Russia has been a key source of support for Syria, although Moscow officials in recent months have said they are simply taking a more even-handed approach while the West offers support to the rebels.

French President Francois Hollande even chided Russia and China on Saturday, asking them to “take into consideration … that it will be chaos and civil war if at some moment Assad isn’t stopped.”

It’s been a difficult two weeks for the Syrian government, with assaults on its two main cities, a bomb that killed four top security officials and a string of high-profile defections.

The country’s military apparatus, though, has remained intact and continues to crush the opposition’s remnants in Damascus and its outskirts.

If they really try to make a stand in Aleppo, the rebels risk being annihilated by superior firepower, and may instead withdraw to preserve their forces as they did in Damascus last week.

Italy welcomed Friday’s release of two Italian electrical engineers, who had been captured eight days ago by militants.

Domenico Tedeschi and Oriano Cantani, who worked on power plants, told reporters in Damascus that they had been kidnapped by five or six masked men who intercepted their car as they drove to the airport. They were later rescued by the Syrian army.

Amid the fighting, three Syrian athletes took part in the first day of competition in London’s Olympic games in swimming, shooting and boxing.

All were defeated, including Wessam Slama, a bantam weight boxer who was one of Syria’s better medal hopes.

The team’s leader, Maher Khayata, whose family is currently trapped by the fighting in Aleppo, said their thoughts were always on the situation at home.

“We would like to return with an Olympic medal,” he told The Associated Press, “but what we want more is to return to our homeland with the news that fighting has stopped and nobody is being killed anymore.”

_____

Associated Press writers Albert Aji in Damascus, Colleen Barry in Rome, Barbara Surk in London and Jim Heintz in Moscow contributed to this report.

U.S. ‘Convinced’ Israel Set to Pounce on Iran – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

( Ehud Yaari is the smartest and best Middle East analyst on Israeli television. – JW )

IAF F-16

Flash 90

Channel 2‘s veteran Middle East analyst Ehud Yaari, who is back from a trip to the U.S., said Friday night that an Israeli attack on Iran can be expected in October.

“I will give you an impression,” he told anchorman Danny Kushmaro on Channel 2 TV’s Ulpan Shishi, “and this is just an impression, but it is a strong impression, after conversations with the people one needs to talk with about this matter.”

“My impression is that the Americans are convinced that there is very high chance that Israel will decide to attack in Iran before the elections in the U.S.,” Yaari stated.

“The date that they are talking about – they say that the prime minister will have to make a decision around October. They are getting ready for a possibility like that in the sense that they have to decide what they will do if there is one response or another by Iran, in the follow-up stage.”

“But when you talk to them, they talk about [an Israeli strike] almost as a given – as a clear, unassailable fact.”

IAF to get 2 new Iron Dome batteries with exte… JPost – Defense.

U.S. presented Netanyahu with contingency plan for Iran strike – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon shared Washington’s contingency plans for a possible attack on Iran with Israel’s PM, according to a senior American official.