WarSclerotic

U.N observers rush out of Syria as civil war expands | NewsPakistan.PK.

( So much for the one month extension. – JW )

“One hundred and fifty observers left Syria on Tuesday evening and Wednesday and they will not come back,” one observer told the media, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“They left after a decision was taken to reduce the mission by half,” a second observer said, without specifying who had taken the decision.

The UN Supervision Mission in Syria, as the force is officially known, consists of 300 unarmed military observers accompanied by around 100 civilian support staff.

It was deployed in April to oversee a ceasefire that went largely unrespected and in mid-June stopped carrying out patrols as fighting intensified. On July 20, the UN Security Council voted to extend the mission’s mandate for a
“final” 30 days, with Western nations warning that the continued violence meant it was unlikely the observers would be able to remain in country.

US ambassador Susan Rice said the resolution would allow the observers “to withdraw safely” from Syria, while British Foreign Secretary William Hague said the resolution gave President Bashar al-Assad’s government “the final chance”
to keep its commitment to end violence.

But Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin insisted that the phrase “final period of 30 days” in the text was not the death knell for UNSMIS and that its work should continue. “This is not a resolution about withdrawal, it is a resolution
about continuation of the activity of the mission,” he said.

Russia accuses US of justifying terrorism … JPost – Middle East.

Big Russian fleet nears Syria. Iran to fight regime change as foreign forces pile up.

DEBKAfile Special Report July 25, 2012, 1:31 PM (GMT+02:00)

Russian Admiral Chabanenko warship

Russian, Western and Arab forces were piling up on Syrian borders Wednesday, July 25, bringing closer a war confrontation which could spur the Assad regime into making good on its threat to use chemical weapons against “external aggression.”
Based on this reading, Moscow added its voice Tuesday to that of US President Obama and warned Bashar Assad against using chemical weapons in view of “its commitments under the international convention it ratified prohibiting the use of poisonous gases as a method of warfare.”
debkafile’s military sources: With operational intelligence deployment and electronic stations positioned inside Syria, the Russians are better placed than any other outsiders to know what is happening on Syria’s battlefields. Their warning must therefore be tied to solid information confirming Washington’s assessment that Assad is dangerously close to deciding to use his chemical and biological weapons in a way that would precipitate a regional conflict.
Israel, Turkey and Jordan would be the first targets on his list.
The immediacy of the peril, debkafile’s military sources report, has speeded the arrival of Russian warships to Syria to counter a potential Western, Arab or Israeli assault on the embattled country.
The Russian Ministry of Defense, which rarely discloses Russian military movements outside its borders, announced early Wednesday morning, July 25 that a fleet of Russian warships had passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean.

The fleet is headed by the anti-submarine and anti-aircraft Admiral Chabanenko warship and consists of another three vessels carrying a large number of Russian marines. This fleet will rendezvous with a Russian flotilla standing by in the Mediterranean since July 21, detached from Russian Black Fleet and composed of the Smetlivy figate and  two large landing craft loaded with Russian marines. This group awaited the main force before approaching Syria.
The fact that Russia is massing large numbers of marines off the Syrian coast looks as though a landing on Syrian soil is on Moscow’s cards.
The Russian marine contingent,  debkafile’s sources say, will stand ready – either to come to the aid of the Assad regime or to serve as a bargaining chip for a last-minute deal between Moscow and Washington for ending the war by establishing a transitional military regime in Damascus whose makeup would be agreed between them and Assad.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hinted at this possibility on Tuesday, July 24, when she said: “We do believe that it is not too late for the Assad regime to commence with planning for a transition.”

But Clinton also hinted, in a more threatening tone, that a situation is developing for the creation of safe zones in rebel-controlled areas of Syria. “More and more territory is being taken and it will, eventually, result in a safe haven inside Syria which will then provide a base for further actions by the opposition,” she said.

Clinton didn’t name the potential protectors of those havens. However, since the Syrian rebels are short of manpower, Western, Muslim or Arab defenders would have to be called in.
Wednesday, British military sources in London sad the moment is rushing forward for British forces to get involved in what is happening in Syria. Iran and Turkey are not indifferent either.

Deputy Iranian Revolutionary Guard chief, Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, warned on Tuesday, July 24, that Tehran would not permit regime change in Damascus and if Syria’s enemies intervened, Iran would hit them hard. The Iranian commander pointed a finger at Saudi Arabia and Qatar, adding that the US and Israel are at the forefront of the comprehensive campaign against Syria but are being beaten back.
This was the first time Tehran had explicitly threatened military intervention in Syria.

Wednesday, Turkey shut its border crossings to Syria. Military sources in Ankara confirmed that massive Turkish military strength had been on the move toward the Syrian border.

51% Say U.S. Should Help Israel If It Attacks Iran – Rasmussen Reports™.

Tensions between Israel and Iran are rising again following a terrorist attack against Israeli civilians in Bulgaria, and most Americans think there’s a good chance of a war between the two in the near future. Most also think the United States should help Israel if it attacks Iran.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 61% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is at least somewhat likely that Israel will attack Iran in the next year while  just 23% see such an attack as unlikely. Those figures include 22% who think an Israeli attack is Very Likely and only two percent (2%) who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Khamenei urges halt to public bi… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

‘Assad Knows Israel Will Attack, If Necessary’ – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Chemical attack drill (file)

Israel news photo: Flash 90

Syrian President Bashar Assad  knows Israel will attack Hizbullah if it obtains his chemical weapons, said Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

“The minute we confirm that Hizbullah has non-conventional weapons, that is chemical and biological weapons, we will act immediately,” he said in an interview on radio in Israel.

“This message was understood clearly” by the United Nations, the United States and European countries, he said from Brussels, where he is attending a European conference. “Assad also understands this,” he added.

Lieberman also said that the reports of Europe’s rejecting his request this week to label Hizbullah a terrorist organization are misleading. He explained that “this is the first time we have proposed it, and it won’t happen in one day.”

Most European countries recognize Hizbullah as a political party despite its terrorist activities. Lieberman said that virtually all of Europe “understands the significance of non-conventional weapons.”

On domestic political issues, Lieberman sad his Yisrael Beytenu party would adamantly oppose proposed alternatives to the Tal Law concerning exemptions from the draft, but he emphasized “it’s all talk in the air” to think that any legislation will passed before the Knesset returns in October from its summer and High Holiday break.

He also said he was not consulted by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu concerning a proposed one percent hike in the Value Added Tax (VAT), but that his party would vote against it.

Rebels, Syrian troops trade heavy fire as battle for Aleppo rages | The Times of Israel.

Helicopters and heavy shelling pound rebels as fighting for financial capital enters fifth day

Fighter jets unleashed sonic booms and helicopter gunships strafed rebels as they pressed their fight early Wednesday into new neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. Farther south, ground troops combed Damascus after the nearly complete rout of the largest rebel assault yet on the capital.

Reuters reported a massacre of worshipers entering a mosque in Damascus, quoting an eyewitness as saying that troops at a nearby roadblock opened fire with automatic rifles, killing some 30 people. “The streets are strewn with bodies,” the witness said.

President Bashar Assad’s forces, after a series of setbacks, are solidifying their grip on Aleppo and Damascus, knowing that their fall would almost certainly spell the regime’s end.

Media reported an armored column of Syrian troops making its way from the Turkish border to Aleppo. This followed heavy shelling in the city by regime forces with about 30 rockets being fired in half an hour.

Helicopters belonging to Assad’s army also went after rebels as they attempted to push into the country’s financial center.

The regime appears to be regaining momentum after a series of setbacks that put it on the defensive. But while its forces easily outgun the rebels in direct confrontations, the rebellion has spread them thin — pointing to a drawn-out civil war.

Syria’s two biggest cities, home to more than one-third of the country’s 22 million people and centers of its political and economic life, have remained largely insulated from the unrest that has ravaged much of the rest of the country during the 16-month conflict.

But this month, rebels from surrounding areas have pushed into both, bringing street battles to previously calm urban neighborhoods.

The fighting in each city has followed a similar script.

After building up their forces in the countryside and clashing with government troops there, rebels pressed into Damascus early last week, sparking clashes around the city with government troops.

The opposition landed a harsh blow July 18, when a bomb tore through a high-level security meeting, killing four top Assad security advisers including his minister of defense and his older sister’s husband. All had been key architects of the government’s efforts to quash the uprising.

But the battle turned when the regime deployed the overwhelming force it has used to crush rebels elsewhere, shelling residential areas and targeting rebels with machine guns and missiles fired from attack helicopters.

On Tuesday, the government appeared to have largely retaken the capital. Activists reported shelling and sporadic clashes between troops and rebels in and around the city, but acknowledged that most fighters had withdrawn.

“They had to withdraw because they lacked ammunition and organization, because the regime was stronger and because they didn’t want to hurt civilians,” Damascus activist Mohammed Saeed said via Skype.

The fighting took a huge toll, making June one of the deadliest months in a conflict that activists say has killed more than 19,000 people.

About one-third of the 150 people killed across Syria on Monday were in or near Damascus, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Amateur video posted online Tuesday showed the aftermath: buildings reduced to rubble by government shells, helicopters hovering overhead and columns of smoke rising from areas still on fire.

Other videos showed tanks in the streets and crowds of foot soldiers combing areas once held by rebels.

Syria’s state news service said troops chased “armed terrorists” from some districts after killing and wounding many of them and were still searching other areas. Syria blames terrorists backed by foreign powers for the uprising.

Videos and claims could not be independently verified. The Syrian government prevents most media from operating in the country.

While the regime asserted control in the capital, rebels in the north launched an assault on Aleppo over the weekend. They pushed into neighborhoods in the southern and northeastern edges of the city and destroyed at least three government tanks.

The fighting expanded on Tuesday, with clashes spreading into neighborhoods on two sides of the historic old city and into a number of other areas, activists said.

The government fought back much as it did in Damascus, firing artillery shells on rebel areas and pursuing fighters with attack helicopters. Residents also reported fighter jets swooping over the city, breaking the sound barrier to cause sonic booms in a show of force.

“It’s the worst day of fighting in Aleppo so far, but I can’t tell what’s happening on the ground or who’s in control,” said a local writer who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. “This is bad because in the end it’s the civilians who will pay the price of this street fighting.”

Prisoners in Aleppo’s jail also rioted overnight, and activists said government forces killed at least eight of them. Guards quelled another prison riot in the nearby city of Homs with tear gas and live ammunition.

At least 26 of the more than 110 people killed nationwide on Tuesday died in Aleppo province, the Syrian Observatory said.

Also Tuesday, a top military commander and close friend of Syrian President Bashar Assad confirmed his defection from the regime.

Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, son of a former defense minister, said in a video broadcast on Al-Arabiya TV that Syrians must work together to build a new country.

“I speak to you not as an official, but as a son of Syria, as a son of the Syrian Arab army that has rejected the criminal program if this corrupt regime,” Tlass said, dressed in a light blue shirt with an open collar, his gray hair tussled.

“Our duty today as Syrians is to unify for one goal, and that is to make our country free and democratic,” he said.

It was his first public appearance since he left Syria earlier this month. French officials later confirmed that he was in France.

His long silence raised questions about whether he had joined the anti-Assad uprising or merely fled the civil war.

Tlass is the highest-level defector from the Syrian regime since the conflict’s start.

He was a member of the elite Republican Guard and son of former defense minister Mustafa Tlass, who served under Assad’s father.

Also joining the defectors, according to Al-Jazeera, was Syrian charges d’affaires in Cyprus, Lamia al-Hariri. Al-Jazeera quoted Bassem Imadi, Syria’s former ambassador to Sweden who defected in December, as saying that al-Hariri was the niece of Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa.

Syria’s uprising started when political protests in March 2011 met a harsh government crackdown. As dissent spread and the death toll rose, many in the opposition took up arms and the conflict transformed into a civil war.

It remains unclear if the rebels in Aleppo will hold out longer than their colleagues did in Damascus. But even activists who acknowledged the loss of the capital said a larger battle had been won.

For the first time, the image of Damascus as standing outside of the uprising has been shattered, said Rami Jarrah, head of the Cairo-based Activists News Association.

“If this happened once, it can happen again,” he said. “But next time,” he said of the rebels, “they’ll be more prepared.”

Assad chemical weapons plans blocked by Moscow.

Embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is reportedly considering unleashing chemical arsenal against Syrian rebels. (Reuters)

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Group Carried Out Bulgaria Bombing, Prime Minister Says – NYTimes.com.

By MATTHEW BRUNWASSER and NICHOLAS KULISH

¶ BURGAS, Bulgaria — An “exceptionally experienced” group of conspirators spent up to a month in Bulgaria before carrying out the suicide bombing last week that killed five Israeli tourists and a local bus driver, the prime minister said Tuesday.

¶ The team worked carefully to avoid detection, renting cars to travel unnoticed between cities in what Prime Minister Boiko Borisov described as a thoroughly planned “conspiracy.” The prime minister’s statements offered the first confirmation that the suicide bomber worked with accomplices, none of whom have been identified or caught.

¶ “They changed and changed and changed leased cars,” Mr. Borisov said. “They went to different cities so they wouldn’t be seen together.” Based on the available closed-circuit video, they “never appeared on camera together.”

¶ Mr. Borisov, who made his statements at a briefing in the capital, Sofia, alongside John O. Brennan, President Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, did not offer any opinion about who was behind the attack.

¶ Israeli officials said that the bombing was the work of Hezbollah operatives backed by Iran. Privately, two American officials said on Tuesday that the Shiite movement Hezbollah was responsible for the bombing based on classified “sources and methods” — typically a reference to electronic intercepts and information from spies on the ground. But the officials declined to offer specific details. For now, American officials are limiting their public comments to the formulation that the bombing bears “all the hallmarks” of other Hezbollah plots, including the arrest in Cyprus earlier this month of a suspected operative of Hezbollah on the suspicion of scheming to kill Israeli tourists there.

¶ “It’s early in the investigation,” said Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury Department counterterrorism official who is writing a book about Hezbollah’s global operations. “They’ve got sketches out. They’re working the DNA. American authorities are waiting to allow the investigation to run its course.”

¶ Iran has blamed Israel for assassinating several of its nuclear scientists, while Israel says the Bulgaria attack was linked to several unsuccessful attempts on Israeli targets in various countries.

¶ But six days after the deadly bombing, the prime minister’s statement only confirmed investigators’ suspicions that the suicide bomber had not acted alone. The attacker, who was seen on video pacing around the arrivals terminal of the Burgas airport before he struck, has also not been identified despite fingerprints and DNA evidence.

¶ Mr. Brennan, Mr. Obama’s adviser, would not comment on the charges Iran and Hezbollah were responsible.

¶ “We’re deferring to our Bulgarian partners to make these determinations and to announce at the appropriate time what the findings in their investigations are,” he said, adding that “there are clear indications that Hezbollah and Iran have been involved in terrorist plotting against innocents in many parts of the world.”

¶ Iran has denied any involvement in the bombing. Bulgarian, Israeli and American officials have cooperated closely in the aftermath of the attack. “We will continue to help Bulgaria in any way we can in this investigation,” Mr. Brennan said. He read from a letter Mr. Obama wrote to Mr. Borisov, calling the attack “a terrible reminder of the danger we face and the challenges that we must confront as allies.”

¶ The latest revelations appeared not only to rule out the possibility of a lone attacker but also to point toward an organized terrorist group. Over the weekend one Lebanese newspaper received an unsubstantiated claim of responsibility supposedly from Al Qaeda. But terrorism experts have said the attack fit the pattern of the continuing covert actions by Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah. Investigators were still trying to reconstruct the movements of the suspects and the whereabouts of the accomplices, who did not die in the attacks.

¶ The Bulgarian police have canvassed hotel managers up and down the Black Sea coast, questioned taxi drivers by the hundreds and, wherever possible, taken any available footage from security cameras that might have caught the suspects on tape. Mr. Borisov described a sophisticated group behind the bombing.

¶ Last week the Bulgarian authorities released the video footage of the man that they said was the suspect, who was wearing a large backpack in the video and found to be carrying a fake Michigan driver’s license after the attack. Over the weekend, Galina Mileva, a former forensic doctor who is now a member of Parliament from the governing party, told a reporter that the bomber had blue eyes and fair skin.

¶ Ms. Mileva, who arrived in the autopsy room toward the end of the examination, said that the bomber appeared to be wearing the backpack when it detonated. “From my experience, it appears that the most likely location of the explosion was on the back because the torso was so torn up,” she said.

¶ Mr. Borisov said that although Bulgarian authorities did not know the man’s identity, “we know when he arrived and the flight he presumably came in on.” He said that the man may have come from a country inside the Schengen area, a border-free zone that Bulgaria has not yet joined. Then he seemed to inject a note of uncertainty, adding, “That is the version we are working on now.”

¶ Residents of the town of Pomorie, up the coast from Burgas, said that a man with a fake Michigan driver’s license tried to rent a car at their tourism bureau. That man had dark eyes and dark skin, the witnesses said. The police have questioned local business owners with a sketch of the potential accomplice.

¶ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Fox News on Sunday that he was “not surmising” that Hezbollah and Iran were behind the attack, but that it was “based on absolutely rock solid intelligence.” Yet while officials continue to speak, both publicly and privately, about a conspiracy, they have yet to offer evidence or explain the source of their information.

¶ Bulgarian authorities have sought to deflect criticism among local media outlets that they had such little information on who was responsible for the bombing. “There was absolutely no chance of preventing such an act,” Mr. Borisov said on Tuesday. He added that it could have been detected only “by chance or if we had been informed by the services that such activities are under way in Bulgaria.”

¶