WarSclerotic

Syria Talks Near Showdown as Violence Grows – Businessweek.

Other forms of international pressure on Assad, such as a Libya-style no-fly zone, won’t work in Syria because “they are not flying,” said Cordesman. The creation of humanitarian corridors is also unrealistic because “if you want them to exist you have to fight your way and fight to stay,” he said.

Assad’s eventual exile remains a possibility. His possible destinations are probably limited to Russia or Iran, his last remaining allies, according to Cordesman. That would make him the fifth leader to be swept away by the Arab Spring movement that has ousted long-standing autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

The opposition, which began as a loosely connected group of army defectors and untrained dissidents, has morphed into a more compact and organized rebel army that’s grabbed control of more territory and can now attack Assad closer to his seat of power, according to three UN diplomats who all spoke on condition of anonymity because the information they cited is classified.

Porous Borders

With Syria’s borders increasingly porous, weapons from Qatar and Saudi Arabia are easier to smuggle in, the officials said. Chaos has engulfed a nation approximately the size of North Dakota that’s at the center of the Middle East and counts Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Israel as neighbors.

While more than 70 percent of Syria’s population is Sunni, Assad and the ruling elite belong to an offshoot of the Shiite branch of Islam that stands to lose privileges, property, and even their lives if his regime falls.

Nawaf Fares, the most prominent Syrian politician to have defected since the start of the revolt, told the BBC yesterday that Assad was “a wounded wolf” and if cornered, would be prepared to use chemical weapons.

The former Syrian ambassador to Iraq cited unconfirmed reports that some of that arsenal had been used in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, which has been shelled by Assad’s security forces for months.

Chemical Weapons

Concerns about Syria’s stockpile of Sarin nerve agent, mustard gas, and cyanide is adding a troubling new dimension to the conflict.

Obama administration officials have skirted questions on what U.S. intelligence knows about the possibility Assad might turn his large cache of advanced weapons against his opponents.

“There are certain responsibilities that go along with the handling and storage and security of those chemical weapons,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters on Air Force One yesterday as President Barack Obama headed to a fundraiser in San Antonio, Texas.

To contact the reporter on this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson in United Nations at fjackson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net

Deputy FM predicts crippling US sanctions on Tehran within weeks | The Times of Israel.

Danny Ayalon says Israel and US are on the same page, including on the use of force if necessary

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon predicted Tuesday that within weeks Iran’s entire banking and insurance systems will be placed under crippling sanctions, further isolating the Islamic republic from the international economy.

Ayalon made the statement in an interview for Army Radio in the wake of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Israel, during which she met with senior Israeli officials, her meetings focusing primarily on the Iranian threat and the two countries’ efforts to thwart it. Clinton pledged Monday evening that the US would do “everything in its power” to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“Last Thursday I held the semi-annual strategic dialogue meeting with US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns. A day later the US announced new steps to bring Iranian banks and insurance companies under sanctions,” said Ayalon, stressing the shared interests of the two countries. “The US too has a clear interest to prevent a nuclear Iran. [US President Barack] Obama himself called it a strategic threat just the other day.”

Ayalon said that once all the Iranian banks and insurance companies were placed under sanctions, the Iranian economy would be crippled. “Their economy is already suffering severely. These steps, along with the embargo on Iranian oil, are having an effect. I hope this proves to them just how determined Israel is,” said Ayalon.

The deputy foreign minister said that talks between Israel and the US on the Iranian issue were held in an open atmosphere with the two countries sharing similar perspectives, including on the future use of force if necessary. “We are on the same side on this issue. Not only are all options on the table, there are US plans and preparations underway.”

Ayalon expressed disappointment over Clinton’s estimate that Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard would not be released from prison, but said the government would continue to do its best to free him.

Clinton’s message to Israel: Don’t jump the gun | The Times of Israel.

As the summer goes by, Israel’s window of opportunity for a strike at Iran may slowly be closing. So be it, the US is signaling, according to Israeli experts. Hold your fire; we’ve got this

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Netanyahu’s office in Jerusalem on Monday. (photo credit: Ohad Zwigenberg/POOL/Flash90)

At the end of her record-breaking 13-day journey to nine countries, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton invited journalists to a press conference at her Jerusalem hotel on Monday night. The event was scheduled for 9 p.m., but Clinton ran an hour and a half late. In the meantime, some US embassy staffers who had worked on her visit took the opportunity for a little nap on the hotel floor.

“I’m sorry to keep you so late, but it’s been a very busy and active, productive day here in Jerusalem,” Clinton said when she finally arrived. Given the hour, Clinton only briefly talked through the meetings with senior government officials she had held throughout the day. She didn’t explain what had held her up in the hotel — long after she had returned from talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his senior ministers. Had she been reporting back to the president? Or maybe she, too, had allowed herself a nap?

She also, unsurprisingly, did not definitively answer the questions on everybody’s mind: What is the US going to do about Iran? And how? And when?

The secretary did give some hints, however. She made plain it was not too late for Iran to respond to international pressure and mend its nuclear ways. She underlined America’s continued preference for economic pressure over military force. And she used the interesting formulation that Israel and the US “are on the same page at this moment” (emphasis added) regarding efforts to thwart the regime from going nuclear — which may have been an entirely insignificant choice of words, or might just have pointed to the fact that Israel is nearer to Iran than the US, feels more threatened by Iran than does the US, might have a more limited capacity to effectively intervene militarily in Iran than does the US, and therefore might not always be “on the same page” over Iran as the US.

For Israeli analysts, the thrust of Clinton’s message to Israel was clear: Don’t jump the gun.

The US sees sanctions as having a biting impact. It is preparing more. It regards Iran as having tried in vain to divide the P5+1 nations — the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. And it therefore emphatically feels the point of no return, the moment that would justify the use of military force, has not been reached.

Summarizes Emily Landau, a senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies: “The Americans are probably saying to the Israelis, do not take military action yet, because the sanctions have led to a new dynamic in the international community’s efforts to curb the Iranians’ nuclear aspirations.”

If so, perhaps Clinton’s reference to a “productive” day of meetings — including with the overtly itchy-fingered Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak — spelled “mission accomplished.” Perhaps she persuaded Israel to hold its fire, that the US has this one covered. Or perhaps that word, too, should not be subjected to exaggerated analysis.

Steering by the secretary

President Barack Obama has repeatedly pledged that he will not allow the Islamic Republic to acquire nuclear weapon capabilities, and that “all options” are on the table. While Clinton acknowledged with striking candor that the P5+1 nuclear talks are deadlocked — indeed, Iranian documents obtained by The Times of Israel earlier this month suggest that the Islamic Republic intends to expand its nuclear program rather than curtail it — she gave no indication that a readiness to utilize those options is growing.

‘The choice is ultimately Iran’s. Our own choice is clear: We will use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon’

Earlier this week, Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns discussed the issue in Jerusalem with his Israeli counterpart, Danny Ayalon; National Security Adviser Tom Donilon was here at the same time on a secret visit, engaging in “in-depth strategic consultations,” as Clinton said; and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is scheduled to arrive in Jerusalem this month. So are the Americans coming to dissuade the Israelis from launching a preemptive strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities? Or are they coming to brief their counterparts on the plans for an American attack?

Again, Clinton wasn’t specifying, but she was steering: “We all prefer a diplomatic resolution, and Iran’s leaders still have the opportunity to make the right decision,” she said at Monday’s press conference. “The choice is ultimately Iran’s. Our own choice is clear: We will use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

She added, “I made very, very clear that the proposals we have seen from Iran thus far within the P5+1 negotiations are nonstarters. Despite three rounds of talks, it appears that Iran has yet to make a strategic decision to address the international community’s concerns and fulfill their obligations under the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] and the UN Security Council.”

At the same time, she said that, “We know the sanctions are biting. Israel and the United States agree on that.”

Some mileage to go

According to Brig. Gen. (ret.) Uzi Eilam, a former top Defense Ministry official, the question is not whether the Americans are determined to stop Iran from going nuclear, because they clearly are, but what they will do to achieve their goal. “As I understand it, there is a willingness on the American side to implement additional sanctions in addition to the existing sanctions,” he said.

Eilam, who also served as director-general of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, said the Americans feel sanctions are working but need to be intensified. “There’s some more mileage to go before they give up,” he said. Personally, Eilam added, “I am sure the Iranians are rational and that they are aware of the impact of the sanctions.”

Emily Landau said that not only are the sanctions crippling the Iranian economy in a way the regime can no longer ignore, but Tehran is also noticing a change in the way the international community is speaking in one voice regarding its demands. “The Iranians are feeling the heat,” she told The Times of Israel.

Iran was hoping that it could get the European Union and the US to ease the sanctions on its oil industries and its banks, but the P5+1 stood united and remained determined, she added.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (left) and chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili (right) at the third round of P5+1 talks, in Moscow in June (photo credit: AP/Kirill Kudryavtsev)

“Iran is not yet willing to discuss its nuclear program as seriously as the P5+1 would like them to. But Iran also wasn’t able split the P5+1,” she said, noting that just two years ago, Russia and China adamantly opposed tougher sanctions. Iran has met a somewhat different approach of late, says Landau. “There is a noticeable shift in the overall dynamic: Iran noticed a new type of determination, a new sense of greater unity of these powers, who don’t always see eye to eye on these issues.”

While it is impossible to know what Clinton discussed with the Israeli leaders, Landau believes that the secretary, like the other senior US officials coming to Jerusalem, is urging restraint. The mere fact that the Iranians are willing to sit down and talk about their nuclear program proves that international pressure is working, she said.

And if all else fails

‘The American air force would know exactly how to launch an aerial attack — even in bad weather’

But what if sanctions ultimately don’t prove sufficient? Washington promises to prevent Iran from going nuclear – but what is the operational definition of that statement? Israeli analysts speak of a closing of the “window of opportunity,” as Tehran moves its facilities underground. In addition, some Israeli pundits speculate over a strike before the winter, as the air force requires clear skies to launch an attack.

“It’s easier to wage war in the summer,” said Eilam, “and many of the wars here in our regions, excluding the War of Independence which lasted for two years, took place in either in summer or at the end of the summer, around October.”

If the US wanted to strike, however, it could do so at any time, he added. “Nowadays, airplanes are equipped with so many advanced [technological] systems. The American air force would know exactly how to launch an aerial attack — even in bad weather.”