Archive for July 18, 2012

At least seven killed in attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria

July 18, 2012

At least seven killed in attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria | The Times of Israel.

( Netanyahu said on the radio that Israel will respond forcefully to this Iran/Hizballa attack. – JW )

Here’s the Netanyahu statement in full:

“All the signs point to Iran. Just in the last few months, we saw Iran attempting to hurt Israelis in Thailand, India, Georgia, Kenya, Cyprus and other countries. Exactly 18 years after the infernal terror attack in the Jewish community center in Argentina, the murderous terror of the Iranians continues to hurt innocent people. This is a terrorist Iranian aggression revealing itself all over the world. Israel will respond forcefully to the Iranian terror.”

Over 30 wounded in explosion on bus carrying Israelis inside Bourgas airport; Netanyahu says, ‘All the signs point to Iran’

July 18, 2012, 6:22 pm 9

At least seven people were killed in an attack on an Israeli tour bus at the Sarafovo International Airport in the Bulgarian vacation city of Bourgas on Wednesday afternoon. Some news reports put the number of fatalities as high as 10.

According to initial reports, a bomb was placed in the bus, detonating to murderous effect. The impact was so strong as to damage two other buses nearby, also with Israelis on board. Some reports said the attack was a suicide bombing, but the local mayor said the bomb had been placed on the vehicle.

Nearly all the casualties were understood to be Israelis. A Bulgarian tour guide was among the dead.

Israel Police and the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry confirmed at least 20 people were injured in the attack.

Israel canceled all planes to Bulgaria.

Smoke rising from the Sarafovo Airport in Burgas, Bulgaria, after a terror attack on an Israeli tour bus, July 18, 2012. (photo credit: JTA/Burgasinfo)

A Bulgarian charter plane with 170 passengers from Tel Aviv to Bourgas landed at 4:50 p.m. local time, and its passengers boarded buses to take them from the plane to the terminal. The explosion occurred a short time later.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday: “All the signs point to Iran. Just in the last few months, we saw Iran attempting to hurt Israelis in Thailand, India, Georgia, Kenya, Cyprus and other countries. Exactly 18 years after the infernal terror attack in the Jewish community center in Argentina, the murderous terror of the Iranians  continues to hurt innocent people. This is a terrorist Iranian aggression revealing itself all over the world. Israel will respond forcefully to the Iranian terror.”

Some reports said three pregnant women were on the plane, as well as members of a youth basketball team.

Aron Katz, an Israeli eyewitness, said that a few moments after they got on the bus, “we heard a really loud boom, and felt the bus shake, and we ran off the bus.”

Katz noted that he saw several couples on the bus, some with young children. “I tried to get back on the bus after the explosion to get my daughter’s wheelchair, but they wouldn’t let me. I saw a woman lying unconscious, and tried to wake her,” Katz said, adding that the scene was very chaotic.

The Bourgas airport was subsequently closed and all flights were redirected to Varna.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman spoke to his Bulgarian counterpart, Nickolay Mladenov, after the explosion, and briefed him on the situation.

Mladenov, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov and Health Minister Desislava Atanasova were on their way to the location of the explosion.

President Rosen Plevneliev was already at the site.

Bulgarian security sources said they had received no warning whatsoever from Israeli intelligence regarding the possibility of a terror attack.

Idan Ruben, a local tour guide in Bourgas, told Channel 10 that the bomb went off “as soon as people entered the bus.” He said the bus was filled with 44 people, all of them Israelis.

An eyewitness, Gal Malka, told Channel 2 that she saw someone board the bus before it exploded.

Channel 10 reported that most of the passengers were youths.

ZAKA and Magen David Adom were sending planes to Bourgas, and MDA may try to fly the wounded home to Israel for treatment.

Iran and its proxy, Lebanese-based terror group Hezbollah, were the immediate prime suspects in the attack. Israel has thwarted numerous Hezbollah terror attacks in recent years. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV station was broadcasting details of the bombing, with excited commentary, on Wednesday evening, Israel’s Channel 2 reported.

A tour bus that was attacked in the Bulgarian city of Bourgas burns on Wednesday (photo credit: Channel 10 screen capture)

In January, the Foreign Ministry warned of a possible terror plot against Israelis in Bulgaria, urging Israelis to take extra precautions when traveling there. It also asked the Bulgarian government to implement extra security measures to ensure that Israeli tourists remain safe.

Last week, a suspected Hezbollah attack on Israeli tourists in Cyprus was foiled by Cypriot authorities. It was unclear whether Wednesday’s attack was related, but the Lebanese terrorist organization swore revenge against Israel four years ago, after the assassination of its terror chief, Imad Mughniyeh, in February 2008.

The Bulgarian attack coincided with the 18th anniversary of the Iranian-Hezbollah attack on the AMIA Jewish community center offices in Buenos Aires, in which 85 people were killed.

Bourgas is the second-largest city on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. It has become a very popular destination for Israeli tourists over the past few years, in the wake of Turkey’s dramatic break with Israel.

Three killed in explosion on Israeli tour bus in Bulgaria | The Times of Israel

July 18, 2012

Three killed in explosion on Israeli tour bus in Bulgaria | The Times of Israel.

( Make that 7 killed. )

Local media report multiple casualties, including three critically hurt

July 18, 2012, 6:22 pm 1

According to initial reports, an Israeli tour bus was attacked by a suicide bomber at the Sarafovo International Airport in the Bulgarian vacation city of Bourgas.

Israel Police and the Bugarian Foreign Ministry confirmed at least three fatalities at the scene of the explosion and 20 injured.

A Bulgarian website reported that there were multiple casualties in a bomb explosion. Army Radio reported that at least three of the passengers were critically wounded.

The plane from Tel Aviv to Burgas landed at 4:50 p.m. local time and its passengers boarded buses to take them to the Globus Hotel. The explosion occurred in the second bus.

The Bourgas airport was closed and all flights were redirected to Varna.

A decisive blow against Assad

July 18, 2012

A decisive blow against Assad | The Times of Israel.

With Wednesday’s blast at the heart of the regime, Syria’s opposition has proven that actions on the ground, not UN resolutions, will determine the outcome of the war

July 18, 2012, 4:54 pm 0
Syrian President Bashar Assad and his defense minister Dawoud Rajha (right) at a memorial ceremony for the 1973 War, October 2011 (photo credit: AP Photo/Sana)

Syrian President Bashar Assad and his defense minister Dawoud Rajha (right) at a memorial ceremony for the 1973 War, October 2011 (photo credit: AP Photo/Sana)

The bloody deadlock between Syria’s government and opposition, which had lasted for 16 months, has been shattered in the space of four days. Fighting reached Damascus on Saturday, and Wednesday morning’s explosion — which killed at least three very senior officials in President Bashar Assad’s inner circle, and injured a score of other security officials — will likely be the final blow to the teetering Assad regime.

In an instant, the blast reshaped the debate on Syria. The question of whether Russia will block Wednesday’s UN Security Council resolution on Syria — Tuesday’s headline — became superfluous, almost ridiculous. The Free Syrian Army, which claimed responsibility for the bombing, has taken matters into its own hands, decisively.

The UN, set to meet in order to renew the mandate of its 300 observers on the ground, could hardly seem less relevant.

More than just a tactical victory for the opposition, the fact that a renegade member of Assad’s security detail (according to preliminary reports) managed to reach such high -ranking officials, in the heavily guarded national security headquarters, constitutes a significant moral setback for Assad’s dwindling circle of supporters.

‘Ninety percent of Syria’s officers are considering defection,’ asserted Nawaf Al-Fares, Syria’s defecting ambassador to Iraq

“Ninety percent of Syria’s officers are considering defection,” asserted Nawaf Al-Fares, Syria’s defecting ambassador to Iraq, serving as a guest expert for Al-Jazeera on Wednesday afternoon. “Syrian citizens know that this regime is finished, that’s it. We are in the final stages of the revolution.”

The regime is not going down without a fight. A Syrian journalist in Damascus told Al-Jazeera over the phone that the regime responded to the National Security Building bombing with “crazy” mortar attacks against opposition forces in Damascus. And it rushed to appoint a substitute defense minister, Fahd Jassem Al-Freij.

The three men killed on Wednesday were among the top officials of Assad’s security establishment. Defense Minister Dawoud Rajha,  65, is the most senior government official to be killed in the Syrian civil war so far. A Christian, Rajha was appointed only last year from within the ranks of the military.

Slain Syrian defense minister Dawoud Rajha (photo credit: AP Photo/SANA)

Slain Syrian defense minister Dawoud Rajha (photo credit: AP Photo/SANA)

The second loss will be much more painful to the Assad family. Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat, 62, was Assad’s brother-in-law. He, too, came from the military, serving as deputy chief of staff and head of military intelligence. Shawkat was falsely rumored to have been killed by the Free Syrian Army in May. On Wednesday, it was official Syrian TV that confirmed his death.

The third fatality is significant too. Hassan Turkmani, a former defense minister, was at the forefront of the battle against the rebels.

The coming days, perhaps even hours, will be critical for the regime’s survival. Preliminary reports from the ground — the authenticity of which cannot be confirmed — indicate extreme anxiety on the part of the military.

The Free Syrian Army claimed Wednesday afternoon that regime soldiers have withdrawn from the Midan neighborhood of Damascus, abandoning their armored personnel carriers at the side of the road.

High-ranking Syrian officers continue to trickle daily across the border to Jordan and Turkey. Now they may start running.

3 key Assad officials killed in Damascus blast

July 18, 2012

3 key Assad officials killed in Damascus blast | The Times of Israel.

President’s brother-in-law, defense minister and top general die in attack at security HQ; intelligence chief and interior minister injured; Israeli analyst predicts Assad’s imminent demise

July 18, 2012, 4:37 pm 3

A massive blast struck the National Security building in Damascus on Wednesday morning, killing Syrian President Bashar Assad’s most trusted security official, his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat; Defense Minister Dawoud Rajha; and Deputy Vice President Gen. Hassan Turkmani.

As rebel forces celebrated, Damascus quickly appointed a new defense minister, Gen. Fahad Jassim Freij, who was previously the military chief of staff.

Several other senior officials were seriously wounded in the bombing, which took place as the regime’s top officials were holding security talks, and marked the most brazen rebel attack to date on the seat of government power.

Dawoud Rajha and Assef Shawkat (photo credit: AP)

Dawoud Rajha and Assef Shawkat (photo credit: AP)

Reuters said it was unclear whether Assad himself was present at the meeting.

An Israel Radio report said many Syrian troops deserted their positions in the capital after the blast. It quoted rebel sources saying troops had abandoned army vehicles and material as they fled.

State TV reported that Assad’s brother-in-law, Shawkat, who held the formal title of deputy chief of staff but who headed the president’s military intelligence hierarchy, died after being hospitalized in critical condition.

Israel Radio said Turkmani, a former defense minister, was an extremely senior and trusted official. The general was at the forefront of the battle against the rebels, it said.

Salman Shaikh, of the Brookings Institution, said Turkmani was “a Turkmen Shi’ite” who provided an “important regime link to both Ankara and Tehran.”

An amateur video posted on YouTube purported to show smoke rising from the building as the bomb detonated.

Interior Minister Muhammad al-Shaar was seriously wounded but in stable condition. Syrian intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar, also wounded, was undergoing surgery.

Rebel leader Riad al-Asaad said in a phone interview from his headquarters in Turkey that rebel forces planted a bomb inside a room where senior government officials were meeting.

Reuters reported that the bomber worked as a bodyguard for Assad’s inner circle. There were claims he was the defense minister’s personal bodyguard.

Initial reports had spoken of a suicide bomber. Later reports, however, appeared to confirm that a bomb had been placed in the room where the top officials met, and was detonated either by a timer or by remote control.

Government officials claimed that America and Israel were involved in the attack. Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi went on state TV to declare: “Harming our army and the soldiers and officers and leadership of the army, and even the honorable civilians and state institutions, [is a] hidden agenda, which is to harm Syria from within, so that Syria will bow and kneel, so to serve the American and Israeli mentality.”

The Syrian army released a statement saying its forces will continue to fight. “Whoever thinks that by targeting the country’s leaders they will be able to twist Syria’s arm is disillusioned because Syria’s people, army and leadership are now more determined than ever to fight terrorism … and cleanse the nation from the armed gangs.”

The capital has seen four straight days of clashes pitting government troops against rebels — an unprecedented challenge to government rule in the tightly controlled capital.

Israeli media monitors reported scenes of celebration in rebel strongholds. An Israel Radio analyst said the bombing — combined with key recent defections — marked a massive blow to Assad, signaling his imminent demise.

Rajha, 65, a former army general, was the most senior Christian government official in Syria. Assad appointed him to the post last year.

His death will resonate with Syria’s minority Christian population, who make up about 10 percent of Syria’s population and have generally stood by the regime.

Christians say they are particularly vulnerable to the violence sweeping the country of 22 million people, and they are fearful that Syria will become another Iraq, with Christians caught in the crossfire between rival Muslim groups.

Wednesday’s attack struck the National Security building in Damascus during a meeting of Cabinet ministers and senior security officials.

Damascus-based activist Omar al-Dimashki said Republican Guard troops surrounded the nearby al-Shami Hospital where some officials were taken for treatment.

Facing increasingly chaotic violence, the UN Security Council was scheduled to vote later Wednesday on a new resolution aimed at pressuring the Syrian regime to comply with a peace plan.

But Russia remained at loggerheads with the US and its European allies over any mention of sanctions and Chapter 7 of the UN charter, which could eventually allow the use of force to end the conflict in Syria.

Besides a government crackdown, rebel fighters are launching increasingly deadly attacks on regime targets, and several massive suicide attacks this year suggest al-Qaida or other extremists are joining the fray.

Activists say more than 17,000 people have been killed since the uprising began in March 2011.

The state-run news agency SANA reported that Wednesday’s blast was aimed at the National Security building, a headquarters for one of Syria’s intelligence branches and less than 500 meters (166 yards) from the US Embassy.

Police had cordoned off the area, and journalists were banned from approaching the site.

Earlier Wednesday, SANA said soldiers were chasing rebels in the Midan neighborhood, causing “great losses among them.” The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said army helicopters attacked the neighborhoods of Qaboun and Barzeh.

Diplomacy so far has failed to stop the bloodshed, and there appeared to be little hope that the UN’s most powerful body would unite behind a plan.

The key stumbling block is the Western demand for a resolution threatening non-military sanctions and tied to Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter, which could eventually allow the use of force to end the conflict in Syria.

Russia is adamantly opposed to any mention of sanctions or Chapter 7. After Security Council consultations late Tuesday on a revised draft resolution pushed by Moscow, Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Alexander Pankin said these remain “red lines.”

Russia has said it will veto any Chapter 7 resolution, but council diplomats said there is still a possibility of last-minute negotiations.

Congress approves expanded military aid to Israel

July 18, 2012

Congress approves expanded military aid to Israel – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

The United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act now awaits President Barack Obama’s signature before it can become law.

By Natasha Mozgovaya | Jul.18, 2012 | 2:54 PM]
An Iron Dome missile being launched.

The United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act, which is meant to approve and expand military cooperation between the two countries, easily passed both houses of Congress on Tuesday and now awaits President Barack Obama’s signature.

The House version of the bill was passed in May. The Senate version, which was passed in June, extended the authority of the US to store weapons in Israel that could be used by Israel in case of emergency, which required an additional House vote.

AIPAC commended the House’s passage of the bill, saying in a statement, “The United States benefits greatly through enhanced cooperation with Israel. This bipartisan bill recommends new avenues to grow and strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship in the fields of missile defense, homeland security, energy, intelligence, and cyber-security.”

Rep. Howard Berman said during the floor debate that “since its founding, Israel has faced innumerable challenges to its survival, but the serious threats it faces today are unprecedented…. This bill once again re-affirms our determination to support Israel’s qualitative military edge against any possible combination of regional threats.”

“Currently, there are only a handful of Iron Dome batteries operational in Israel.  More are needed in order to protect all of Israel’s eight million citizens. This bill also pledges to assist Israel with its ongoing efforts to forge a peaceful, negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that results in two states living side by side in peace and security. I applaud Prime Minister Netanyahu’s willingness to negotiate anywhere, any time.  The Palestinians should take him up on that offer, instead of pursuing a campaign to delegitimize Israel at the UN and elsewhere,” he said.

US gears up for Iran attack: Construction of missile defense station in Qatar:.

July 18, 2012

.:Middle East Online::US gears up for Iran attack: Construction of missile defense station in Qatar:..

Missile defense radar station in Qatar will be part of system intended to defend interests of US, its allies against Iranian rockets.

Is time for military option nearing?

 

WASHINGTON – The Pentagon is building a missile defense radar station at a covert location in Qatar, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The site will be part of a system intended to defend the interests of the United States and its allies against Iranian rockets, unnamed US officials told the newspaper.

The Journal also reported that Washington was preparing for its biggest-ever minesweeping exercises in the Gulf in September, calling them the “first such multilateral drills in the region.”

A similar radar has existed on Mount Keren in the Negev Desert since 2008 and another is installed in Turkey as part of NATO’s missile defense shield.

In addition, officials told the Journal that US Central Command, which oversees US military operations in the Middle East and South Asia, wants to deploy the first Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system in the area in the coming months, possibly in the United Arab Emirates.

Tensions with Iran — which Western powers suspect of secretly striving to build nuclear weapons — are rife in the Gulf region.

An Indian fisherman was killed and three others wounded on Monday when a US navy ship opened fire on their vessel near the United Arab Emirates port of Jebel Ali in the southern Gulf.

US defense officials said the fishing boat had ignored warnings not to approach the refueling ship USNS Rappahannock, and that sailors on board the American vessel feared it could pose a threat.

The United States has warned Teheran about blocking the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, and has significantly bolstered its military presence there.

Fears of a closure of the strait — through which about a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes — intensified earlier this year after Iran threatened to close it if Western governments kept up efforts to rein in Tehran’s controversial nuclear program by choking off its oil exports.

Tehran says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only.

The United States is trying to prevent military action by Israel against Iran.

In Israel on Monday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would use “all elements of its power” to prevent Iran going nuclear and was working in “close consultation” with Israel over how to do so.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is also expected to visit Israel in the coming weeks, according to the Pentagon.

Assad trusts inner circle in fight for survival

July 18, 2012

Assad trusts inner circle in fight for sur… JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS
07/18/2012 11:27
Insight: Assad sets up elite crisis group of family, clan and security aides as flames of conflict reach the seat of power in Damascus.

Syrian President Bashar Assad
Photo: Sana / Reuters

BEIRUT – As fighting rages in Damascus, and the Assad family that has ruled Syria for four decades struggles for its life against a growing rebellion, a picture is emerging of a tight inner group determined to fight its way out of the crisis, even as support for the government falls away.

At its head is Syrian President Bashar Assad, who inherited power from his father in 2000 and who friend and opponent alike say appears increasingly detached from reality, convinced he is fighting a conspiracy against him and Syria.

Around him is a tight circle of family and clan members, and a security establishment staffed mainly by adherents of the Alawite minority to which the Assads belong, a branch of Shi’ite Islam in a country that is three quarters Sunni.

“Even those who love him feel he can no longer provide security,” said Ayman Abdel-Nour, an adviser to Assad until 2007 and now an opposition figure. “They think he is useless and living in a cocoon.”

“He thinks of himself as God’s messenger to rule Syria. He listens to the sycophants around him who tell him ‘you are a gift from God.’ He believes that he is right and that whoever contradicts him is a traitor. Many of his close friends and advisers have either left him or distanced themselves from him.”

In response, Assad has taken charge of a military crisis unit and takes all the daily decisions, from the deployment of army units to tasks assigned to the security services, as well as mobilization of the Alawite Shabbiha, the feared militia accused of a series of massacres in the past two months.

“Bashar remains the center. He is involved in the day-to-day details of managing the crisis,” said a Lebanese politician close to the Syrian rulers. “He set up an elite unit led by him to manage the crisis daily.”

In this unit, intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar is responsible for security coordination, Dawoud Rajha is minister of defense, Assef Shawkat, the president’s powerful brother-in-law, is deputy chief of staff of the armed forces. Alongside them are Ali Mamlouk, special adviser on security, Abdel-Fattah Qudsiyeh, head of military intelligence, and Mohammad Nassif Kheyrbek, a veteran operator from the era of Assad’s father.

‘Kill or be killed’

Maher Assad, the president’s younger brother and Syria’s second most powerful man, commands the main loyalist strike forces.

“Maher is directly involved in the confrontation on the ground and is in direct contact with every one of them. He has direct military responsibilities,” the Lebanese politician said.

While there has been no shake-up in the leadership, its inner circle is beginning to realize it faces a serious crisis. “In the hierarchy of the authorities you don’t see a noticeable change,” he said. But “you hear more realistic language. The prestige and standing of the regime has been scratched.”

Abdel-Nour, the former Assad adviser, paints a darker picture of the inner circle. He stresses that there is nothing autonomous about the way government units operate, whether the shelling of opposition neighborhoods by Maher’s armored columns or the killing of villagers by the Shabbiha militia. All units are under Bashar’s command and many have family ties.

Each region has its own Shabbiha leader and many of the central cities are led by Shabbiha men related to Assad.

The 46-year-old Assad said last month that Syria was at war and ordered his government to spare no effort in pursuit of victory against rebels he has described as terrorists.

Drawing parallels with his earlier profession as an eye surgeon, he said: “When a surgeon performs an operation to treat a wound do we say to him: ‘Your hands are covered in blood’?”

“Or do we thank him for saving the patient?”

Some long-time observers of Syria’s secretive politics believe Assad’s attempt to keep tight control of his forces will not necessarily protect him from being toppled internally if it looks as though he cannot prevail militarily.

Patrick Seale, biographer of Assad’s father, Hafez Assad, said: “Assad is a front man for a big security establishment of 300,000 regular army. He has a small clique that supplies him with information.”

“They might still mount a coup against him and that remains his big threat.”

After 16 months, the conflict has reached the seat of Assad’s power in Damascus. Government forces and opponents are fighting with the ferocity of those who know what awaits them if they lose.

“There is war in Syria: either kill or be killed,” said the pro-Syrian Lebanese politician.

A Western diplomat added: “They are fighting like a pack of wolves.”

Civil war; proxy war

While facts on the ground often cannot be verified because independent media are largely excluded from Syria, the conflict is now seen by observers to have changed from an uprising in poor towns and villages to a civil war that has reached the streets of the capital.

It has also become a proxy war between Russia and Shi’ite Muslim Iran, which back Assad, one one side, and Sunni Muslim powerhouse Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, which are arming and funding the Sunni rebels on the other. The rebels now include the Free Syrian Army, a group of army defectors joined by Sunni youths, al-Qaida style Jihadists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and local pro-democracy Sunni liberals.

Weapons are being smuggled across the borders from Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan.

“Syria … is clearly right now a battleground for proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, reflecting a centuries-old conflict between Shi’ite and Sunni powers,” said Ayham Kamel of Political Risk consultancy Eurasia.

While the rebels inside Syria are gaining ground, the Syrian political opposition in exile remains bogged down in factional divisions and is losing influence.

The government is meanwhile losing its ability to spread fear. Defections of senior officers and officials have accelerated in recent weeks although the backbone of the military remains intact due to Alawite solidarity.

“The Syrian regime is slowly and totally sinking. I don’t know what the timeline will be. It is becoming difficult for the state to control the country. It is like a fire engine, they extinguish one fire and find that another fire has started in another place,” said a senior Western diplomat.

“The army is overstretched, the government is under sanctions and there is erosion of power,” he added.

Government control slipping

Many Sunni officers, police and security staff have either defected or are not reporting for duty. Those manning traffic and police checkpoints are mainly Alawites, who can be recognized by their accent, residents say.

Responsibility for defending the Assads is falling on the mainly Alawite battalions led by Maher, Bashar’s brother.

In outlying cities and on the outskirts of the capital, residents say the only sign of any government presence is tanks and armored personnel carriers stationed on main roads. Traffic and ordinary police are nowhere to be seen.

Residents stood in disbelief at the sight of rebels manning checkpoints, blocking streets and clashing with government troops in Damascus. “A few days ago, we would have said this was impossible. It is a dangerous indication,” said a resident reached by telephone.

Government forces are scared of entering some rebel areas and they use artillery and helicopters gunships to bomb rebel positions, Syrians reached by telephone say.

Close watchers of Damascus say while the authorities’ power has been eroding they doubt that a lightly armed rebels can defeat an army, backed with Russian-made tanks, armored personnel carriers and warplanes.

“Bashar and his regime have been profoundly destabilized but there is some doubt whether he can be toppled by the rebels for all the following reasons: Russia’s protection, a divided opposition and no appetite for military intervention,” said Assad biographer Patrick Seale.

But he added: “No regime can last forever … I cannot see a peaceful settlement for the moment. I can see a bloody stalemate, more shooting, more killing. The situation is very bad, chaos and insecurity are everywhere. Kidnapping, killing and hostage-taking, ethnic-cleansing are rife,” Seale said.

He said Assad’s officer corps would not give up on him unless they feel they will have a role in a post-Assad Syria.

‘Zero chance’

Despite the carnage and the failure so far of international peace efforts, Western diplomats said a Libyan-style military intervention is off the table, because of geopolitical complications and fear of a regional conflagration.

“Libya is different from Syria … Russia (is) involved on the ground and backing Assad. Iran is providing a lot of financial and military help for the Assad regime,” the Lebanese politician said.

Russia and Iran, Abdel-Nour said, are not just supplying Assad with weapons. They are also providing equipment to intercept the communications of the Free Syrian Army.

The focus of the United Sates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia is to try and entice senior officials and officers to split from the Assad circle to weaken his hold on power.

“At some point, they will feel that there is no way out and they have to abandon the boat before it sinks,” said the Western diplomat.

Many observers say in the absence of outside military intervention, the conflict could slide into a full-scale civil war that would further weaken the Assads, bring in new players and force an internationally sponsored transfer of power.

“The regime has not lost full control. We will transition into civil war. The opposition has become a lot more powerful and capable at the military and financial level with the help of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey,” said Ayham Kamel of Eurasia.

“Incrementally, the regime will become weaker,” he said. “Change will come in two ways: either through a shift in the balance of power in the conflict, or though a prolonged civil war, or through a negotiated compromise and international transition plan sponsored by the US and Russia,” he added.

“Even if Bashar goes it doesn’t mean that someone will take over,” he added, suggesting that the country will collapse into sectarian anarchy.

In the meantime, the authorities have upped their game, using tanks, artillery and helicopter gunships against rebels waging what they call “The Battle of Damascus”.

“The question Damascenes ask has changed from before,” one resident said. “They no longer ask if the regime will fall but when?

Blast kills Syrian defense minister, Assad’s brother-in-law

July 18, 2012

Blast kills Syrian defense minister, Assad… JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS
07/18/2012 13:31
Interior minister is injured in explosion at Damascus National Security building; Republican Guard troops seal off hospital where casualties were brought; overnight fighting breaks out near Damascus presidential palace.

Syrian Defense Minister Daoud Rajha

Photo: Sana / Reuters

Syrian state television said a “terrorist explosion” which struck a national security building in Damascus killed Syrian Defense Minister Daoud Rajha and critically injured the country’s interior minister on Wednesday.

“The terrorist explosion which targeted the national security building in Damascus occurred during a meeting of ministers and a number of heads of (security) agencies,” the television.

A security force told Hezbollah’s al-Manar television station that Assad’s brother-in-law Assef Shawkat was killed in the attack.

Activists at the scene said that Republican Guard troops sealed off Damascus’s Shami Hospital after ambulances arrived with casualties from the explosion.

A report from Lebanese-based news channel Al-Mayadeen said that several senior security officials were killed in the explosion.

Overnight, the revolt against Syrian President Bashar Assad came within sight of his presidential palace as fighting erupted in major Damascus neighborhoods for a fourth day.

An army barracks near the “palace of the people,” a huge Soviet style complex overlooking the sprawling capital from the western district of Dummar, came under rebel fire around 7.30 a.m. (0430 GMT), activists and a resident said.

“I could hear the sound of small arms fire and explosions are getting louder and louder from the direction of the barracks,” Yasmine, who works as an architect, said by phone from Dummar.

Video footage broadcast by activists purportedly showed fire in the barracks overnight as a result of an attack by mortar rounds, but residents who saw the fire said they had not heard explosions to indicate it was a result of an attack.

Dummar is a secure area containing many auxiliary installations for the presidential palace and the barracks is just hundreds of meters from the palace itself.

Fighting also erupted overnight in the southern neighborhoods of Asali and Qadam, and Hajar al-Aswad and Tadamun – mainly Sunni Muslim districts housing Damascenes and Palestinian refugees.

Assad and the ruling elite belong to the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam that has dominated power in Syria since a 1963 coup.

Government troops used heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft guns against rebels moving deep in residential neighborhoods, armed mostly with small arms and rocket propelled grenades.

Opposition is cautious

Rebels directed their fire overnight at a large state facility turned headquarters for pro-Assad militia, known as shabbiha, drawn mainly from Alawite enclaves in nearby hills.

Army tanks and anti-aircraft guns, used as an infantry weapon, took positions in the northern neighborhood of Barzeh, where hundreds of families from the neighboring district of Qaboun are seeking shelter.

“Anti-aircraft guns are firing at Qaboun from Barzeh. There are lots of families in the streets with no place to stay. They came from Qaboun and from the outskirts of Barzeh,” said Bassem, one of the activists, speaking by phone from Barzeh.

In the central neighborhood of Midan tanks and infantry fighting vehicles known as BDMs took positions in main thoroughfares and sporadic fighting was reported.

“Armour have not been able to enter the alleyways and old streets of Midan. The neighborhoods old Zahra and the old area near Majed mosque are in the hands of the rebels,” said Abu Mazen, an activist in the district.

Rebel fighters have called the intensified guerrilla attacks in recent days, which have targeted shabbiha buses, unmarked intelligence patrols and armored vehicles in the capital, the battle “for the liberation of Damascus” after 16 months of revolt.

But senior opposition figures took a more nuanced view.

“It is going to be difficult to sustain supply lines and the rebels may have to make a tactical withdrawal at one point, like they did in other cities,” veteran opposition activist Fawaz Tello said from Istanbul.

“But what is clear is that Damascus has joined the revolt,” Tello, a Damascene, told Reuters. “By hitting well known Sunni districts of the city, such as Midan, the regime is exposing the sectarian nature of the crackdown.”

Information Minister Omran Zoabi said on Tuesday security forces were fighting armed infiltrators in Damascus. He said many had surrendered while others “escaped on foot and by car and are firing randomly in the air to frighten people.”

Assad’s kinsman Shawqat and defense minister Rajiha killed by suicide bomber

July 18, 2012

Assad’s kinsman Shawqat and defense minister Rajiha killed by suicide bomber.

DEBKAfile Special Report July 18, 2012, 2:31 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Bashar Assad’s survival is in serious question after the deaths of his top allies, his brother-in-law Security Chief Assif Shawqat and Defense minister Gen. Dawoud Raijiha by a suicide bomber, while holding a top-level meeting in the National Security building in Damascus, Wednesday, July 18. Interior Minister Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ibrahim Shaair is in critical condition.

This was the deadliest blow to the Assad regime in the 17-month Syrian uprising, striking deep inside the president’s inner circle and family: Shawqat was married to his sister.  It took place on the fourth day of fierce fights with rebel forces which seized parts of Damascus and are battling superior government forces backed by heavy tank, artillery and machine gun fire and helicopters.
The bomber must have had an inside track to the top level of the Assad regime to have come close enough to reach a cabinet meeting with security officials in the heavily fortified National Security building and blow himself up among them.
To ward off the rebel assault on the capital, the Syrian regime engaged in the high-risk tactic of letting them enter the southern districts of Damascus, to trap them and then finish them off with superior fire power.
Assad meanwhile scattered his key government departments in fortified buildings around Damascus: The General Staff was assigned the military complex on Shuhada Street and the cabinet met at the National Security building. Now the Syrian ruler is forced to believe that all his security arrangements are deeply penetrated by his enemies who knew exactly where and when to strike.

London braces for Israeli strike on Iran during 2012 Games

July 18, 2012

London braces for Israeli strike on Iran during 2012 Games | The Times of Israel.

Olympic planning committee fears a military showdown during the largest sporting event in the world

July 18, 2012, 11:57 am 1
The main Olympic Stadium in London. Security forces are working overtime on preparations for the games. (photo credit: AP/Sang Tan)

The main Olympic Stadium in London. Security forces are working overtime on preparations for the games. (photo credit: AP/Sang Tan)

Taking into account the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran during the 2012 Summer Games, the Olympic committee in charge of the London event has formed a special team to prepare for the contingency.

According to the Hebrew daily Yedioth Ahronoth on Wednesday., the team — consisting of politicians, diplomats, security officials and organizing committee personnel — wrote in a report that such a strike was entirely possible.

Yedioth reported that the team was also preparing for the possibility of an earthquake or volcanic eruption.

England is thought to be within the range of Iranian missiles and UK officials believe that a military confrontation between Jerusalem and Tehran could involve the country against its will.

The special team listed a number of steps that would need to be taken in the event of such a conflict, among them: opening a special command center, providing secret safe houses for foreign leaders wishing to meet for diplomatic purposes, and preparing for emergency evacuations of dignitaries.

The team said England would have to guarantee the safety of the athletes and the continuation of the Games, as well as make sure Israeli and Iranian athletes are kept away from each other.

Yedioth reported that the recommendations were passed on to the police, who practiced dealing with the mass protests that could erupt if war broke out.