WarSclerotic

Hinting at Iran divisions, Clinton says friends need to work together in ‘smart, creative’ ways – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

U.S. Secretary of State meets with President Peres, Avigdor Lieberman on her first visit to Israel in two years; she will meet with Barak, Netanyahu later Monday.

Hillary Clinton with Shimon Peres, July 16, 2012. Photo by AP

By Barak Ravid, Haaretz and Reuters

Jul.16,2012 | 12:49 PM | 7

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who began her visit to Israel with meetings in Jerusalem on Monday morning, hinted after her meeting with President Shimon Peres that there are differences of opinion between the U.S. and Israel over how to deal with Iran.

Talking to the press, Clinton said, “It is a time of uncertainty but also of a big opportunity in the region. At times like these friends like us need to work together in a smart, creative and courageous way.”

Clinton also met on Monday morning with Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, before her meeting with Peres. On Monday afternoon, she will meet with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and attend a dinner with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. At 21:30 in the evening, she will address reporters at the David Citadel hotel in Jerusalem.

At the center of Clinton’s meetings in Israel is the Iran nuclear issue, as well as violence in Syria, the new government in Egypt, and the peace process with the Palestinians. There are differences of opinion between Israel and the U.S. over all these issues. The U.S. is convinced that Israel has to refrain from unilateral military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, and give more time to sanctions. The Obama administration also thinks that Israel should push new policy over the peace process and dissuade the Palestinians from turning to the UN for state recognition in September.

Following his meeting with Clinton, Peres said that, Egypt is a key state in the region and that Israel wants to uphold the peace treaty with Egypt. “We respect the results of the elections in Egypt, and hope for another 30 years of peace,” he said.

Peres added that he was convinced that there is international understanding of the danger that the Iranian regime represents to the world, and highlighted that the sanctions that have been imposed on Iran have started to work.

“I hope that Iran will return to its rich legacy and be a country that does not threaten anyone, and no one makes threats against,” he said.

Fears grow over Syria’s chemical arms – FT.com.

©AP

How concerned should the world be about President Bashar al-Assad’s possession of chemical and biological weapons?

As the civil war between the regime and rebel groups inside Syria intensifies, the question is one that is increasingly on the minds of senior government officials in the US, Europe and the Middle East.

Any discussion of the chemical and biological stocks Syria possesses – and where they are located – presents difficulties. Syria is not a signatory to the international Chemical Weapons Convention and has never declared what its stocks might be. Nine years after the 2003 Iraq war – in which the US and Britain wrongly claimed that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction – many will want to scrutinise any claim made by western intelligence agencies about WMD stocks in Arab states.

Still, independent experts say there is no doubt that, in the 1980s, the Soviet Union helped Syria develop a chemical weapons arsenal as a strategic counter weight against Israel. Russia has never denied its role in this. Intelligence agencies now believe Mr Assad possesses one of the largest chemical weapons stockpiles in the world, including mustard gas as well as VX and sarin nerve agents.

Last Friday, worries about the fate of the arsenal intensified, with the US stating that the regime has started moving its chemical weapons stocks. Western officials are unclear why the regime is doing this. It may be that the Assad regime is seeking to safeguard the arsenal and move it away from the scene of fighting. Even so, as the death toll in the conflict grows, few can guarantee what the ultimate fate of the arsenal will be.

As they work through scenarios in this conflict, western governments have three fundamental concerns. The first is that the Assad regime might use chemical weapons against the rebels. Given the pressures the regime is under, such desperation is not inconceivable. But it has risks. In 2007, an accident at a chemical weapons facility involving mustard gas killed several Syrians. More significantly, any use of chemical weapons would almost certainly unite the international community behind the need for immediate military intervention.

The second fear is that the Assad regime loses its grip on the weapons and they fall into the hands of militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah. The possibility that this could happen – and that Hezbollah acquires the Scud missiles that can launch them – is of significant concern to Israel. No less worrying is the risk that the stocks fall into the hands of the growing number of foreign fighters linked to al-Qaeda who are now operating against the regime on Syrian territory.

The third concern is that as fighting intensifies there could be an explosion where chemical weapons are based, releasing them into the atmosphere. Syria is thought to have five manufacturing plants and about 20 more storage sites. The question of what would happen if there were an explosion at one of these sites will have been examined by plumologists – scientists who study the likely effects of the release of dangerous chemicals under a range of wind conditions.

Given this situation, the options for action by western governments are small. There have been many news articles suggesting that the US and Israel have contingency plans to enter Syria and secure the chemical weapons, with Jordanian troops braced to play a role.

There is no doubt that such contingency plans are being thought through in the Pentagon and in Israeli military establishment. But some western government officials say such an operation is only likely to be carried out in extremis. “Syria’s air defences will always be a huge obstacle to such an external intervention,” says one. In western capitals, therefore, the hope is that the Syrian crisis results in a transition where some kind of executive grip on these chemical weapons stocks can be maintained.

Damascus fighting heaviest since Syrian conflict began, activists say – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Gunfire heard Sunday in several neighborhoods of the capital, protesters blocked roads to protest government offensives in those districts.

Obama Advisor Visited Israel ‘to Stop Iran Attack’ – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Tom Donilon

White House

President Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Tom Donilon visited Israel secretly over the weekend in what one Israeli newspaper says was an attempt to convince Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

He met with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and National Security Advisor Gen. Yaakov Amidror.

“National Security Advisor Tom Donilon visited Israel from July 14-15 for consultations with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Barak, and National Security Advisor Gen. Amidror,” the White House said in an official statement Sunday.

“In these meetings, the National Security Advisor reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. His visit was the latest in a series of ongoing U.S. consultations with Israeli officials on a range of regional security issues.”

Maariv-NRG says Donilon’s visit reflects heightened U.S. concern that Israel intends to attack Iran sometime during the summer or early autumn. That concern has been heightened by the recent failure of talks between western powers and Iran. The news site estimated that the visit was intended to convince Israel not to launch an attack anytime soon.

Israel has said repeatedly that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is in a critical stage and that further delay of an attack upon it would enable Iran to move the program underground. Following that, stopping the program will become next to impossible without a full scale war of annihilation.

Israel would prefer the U.S. to lead an attack on Iran instead of facing it alone. An Israeli attack could have unforseen consequences on the volatile Middle East, and a U.S.-led strike is seen as something Arab regimes will accept slightly more easily. In any case, repercussions against Israel are expected.

Defense Minister Barak has estimated that up to 500 Israelis could be killed in an attack by Iran and its proxies on Israel.

What is Hillary Clinton Doing in Israel? – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic.

Welcome to the Summer 2012 Please-Don’t-Bomb-Iran Tour, starring the Obama Administration, now on stage in Jerusalem.

Last week, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns came to Israel to top-level consultations. The President’s national security adviser, Tom Donilon, also dropped by for a visit. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to arrive in Israel about now. More visits from senior Administration officials are scheduled for later this month. The number of top American officials visiting Jerusalem is outmatched only by the number of American warships already in the Persian Gulf, or heading there now.

In other words, with Iran nuclear talks at an impasse, the Administration seems to believe that Israel may once again be gearing-up to launch a strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, perhaps later this summer. Last month, the Atlantic’s Iran War panel, expertly organized by Dominic Tierney, placed the chances of an American or Israeli attack over the next year at 36 percent. I hope Dominic is organizing another poll of his expert panel, because, based on all of this activity, it seems as if 36 percent might be a slightly low number.

While we’re on the subject, let me recommend Ari Shavit’s recent interview with Giora Eiland, a retired general who is one of Israel’s top defense strategists. Read the whole thing, but here is Eiland asking the Iran version of the Four Questions:

“On decision day, the political echelon must demand that the military echelon offer a firm and clear yes to each of the following four questions: 1. Is the intelligence we have good enough? Do we know exactly what is to be found where? 2. Can we bring a critical mass of an attack to the locations that intelligence is giving us? 3. Do we know for certain that the explosive materials the attack brings to the correct locations will indeed penetrate what they need to penetrate and cause significant damage? 4. Will the overall outcome of the attack cause the Iranian nuclear program to be halted? Will it buy us a window of time of at least a number of years?

Numbers one through three he believes Israeli military leaders can answer positively. On number four, he has his doubts, because “the question is not solely military, but military and diplomatic combined.” Eiland goes on to say:

“If there is international support for an Israeli attack, Iran will find it very hard to rebuild its nuclear capability afterward. But if the Israel attack is perceived as rash and illegitimate, Iran will actually get a boost and will quickly attain military nuclear capability. If that happens, then the Israeli strike will end up hastening the assembly of the Iranian nuclear bomb. Israel will come out the loser on both ends.”

I’m in the Meir Dagan camp on this one. The former Mossad chief believes that an Israeli attack would actually help Iran achieve nuclear weapons status. Here is what I wrote about a recent interview with Dagan:
… (W)hat angers him most is what he sees as a total lack of understanding on the part of the men who lead the Israeli government about what may come the day after an Israeli strike. Some senior Israeli officials have argued to me that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities might actually trigger the eventual downfall of the regime. Dagan predicts the opposite: “Judging by the war Iran fought against Iraq, even people who supported the Shah, even the Communists, joined hands with (Ayatollah) Khomeini to fight Saddam,” he said, adding, “In case of an attack, political pressure on the regime will disappear. If Israel will attack, there is no doubt in my mind that this will also provide them with the justification to go ahead and move quickly to nuclear weapons.” He also predicted that the sanctions program engineered principally by President Obama may collapse as a result of an Israeli strike, which would make it easier for Iran to obtain the material necessary for it to cross the nuclear threshold.

Iran’s War Against Israel and Jews – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic.

International law enforcement agencies have broken-up yet another alleged plot against an Israeli target, arresting an apparent Hezbollah operative in Cyprus who was there to identify suitable targets for terrorist attacks.

According to press reports, the operative was particularly interested in Israeli airliners. As Amos Harel reports in Haaretz this morning (I’m on a brief trip to the perfidious Zionist entity, where much of the talk is aboutf the flood of American officials coming to assure the Israeli government that they’ve got the Iran situation under control), attacking an Israeli airliner is an ambitious idea, and one that would undoubtedly trigger a wider conflict.

Protecting Israel’s air traffic is high priority for the Shin Bet security service, right up there with protecting Israeli embassies abroad. Thus, had Hezbollah actually attacked a plane successfully, this would have been tantamount to declaring war.

Agents of Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, have had a difficult time lately killing Israelis. Law enforcement agencies across the globe have stopped Iranian plots in Kenya, Georgia, India, Azerbaijan and Thailand. But remember that Iran every so often succeeds, as it did, twice, in Argentina, blowing up both a Jewish community center and the Israeli embassy. So it’s entirely possible that Iranian agents could succeed again, and then we’d be looking at an accelerated conflict. As Harel points out:
Israeli leaders have significantly lowered the volume of their own threats against Iran recently. But at a time when Israel’s dilemma on Iran has been boiled down to a four-word slogan, “bomb or be bombed,” a third scenario must also be considered: A poorly-thought-out Iranian move, in the Persian Gulf or elsewhere, could ignite a conflict even before anyone decides to attack its nuclear facilities.

Clinton lands in Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense to arrive next week for talks on Iran, Syria, Palestinians – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Group of U.S. officials, including Hilary Clinton, arrives in Israel for regional talks, Secretary of Defense expected to arrive early next week.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives at Ben Gurion International Airport, Israel, on July 15, 2012, after visiting Egypt during a trip through France, Afghanistan and Southeast Asia. Photo by AFP

By The Associated Press | Jul.16,2012 | 4:38 AM

The cadre of senior American officials that has arrived in Israel over the past week is expected to increase by one more, as United States Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta will also arrive next week in Jerusalem to conduct talks on Iran’s nuclear program, and the deteriorating situation in Syria.

Panetta will arrive in Israel roughly one week after U.S. Secaratry of State Hilary Clinton, who landed in Israel late Sunday night, and will meet on Monday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

Clinton arrived in Israel late on Sunday for top-level talks with Israeli officials, according to an AFP report, which said she is expected to focus on Iran’s nuclear program and the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In addition, she is to discuss with Israeli officials Egypt’s political upheaval.

Citing an AFP correspondent traveling with the delegation, the news agency reported that Clinton arrived on a flight from Egypt shortly after 11:30 P.M. and that this was her first visit to the Jewish state in nearly two years.

Joining Clinton are U.S. Middle East envoy David Hale and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, who represents Washington at the talks between world powers and Iran, said AFP.

Her visit comes on the tail end of a trip to Egypt. On Sunday, in a meeting with Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, Clinton urged him to work with Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood, on a full transition to civilian rule.

Upon her departure from Egypt on Sunday, protesters threw tomatoes and shoes at Clinton’s motorcade. According to Reuters, a tomato struck an Egyptian official in the face, and shoes and a water bottle landed near the armored cars carrying her delegation in the port city of Alexandria after she gave a speech on democratic rights during her first visit to Egypt since Morsi’s election.

A senior U.S. official said neither Clinton nor her vehicle, which was around the corner from the incident, were hit by the projectiles, which were thrown as U.S. officials and reporters walked to the motorcade after her speech.

Protesters chanted “Monica, Monica,” a reference to the extra-marital affair conducted by Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, while in the White House. Others earlier chanted “leave, Clinton” an Egyptian security official said.

The downfall of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last year has raised questions among Israelis about whether Egypt, the first Arab nation to have made peace with Israel, will adhere to that treaty under his Islamist successor.

“At the top of it (her agenda) will be her impressions and assessment of the last two days that she spent in Egypt,” a
senior U.S. official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

“She is bringing a very calming message,” Danny Ayalon, the Israeli deputy foreign minister, told Israel Radio. “By their (the U.S.) reckoning as well, Egypt’s agenda, and certainly President Mursi’s agenda, will be a domestic agenda.”

“He has to rehabilitate the economy there … internal challenges that are really of utmost importance,” Ayalon added. “There is no change (on Egypt’s commitment to the peace treaty) and in my estimate there will not be in the foreseeable future.”

Clinton anticipates a discussion about the Arab Spring, which not only brought about the downfall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt but also sparked what has become a virtual civil war in Syria, leading to instability on two of Israel’s borders.

The U.S. official said Clinton also expected to have lengthy talks with Israeli officials about the Iranian nuclear program.

Dinner with Netanyahu

Clinton is scheduled to attend a state dinner in Jerusalem with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. Her arrival in Israel follows an unusual, and slightly embarrassing, absence of almost two years. Clinton’s last visit to Israel was on September 15, 2010, when Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met in Jerusalem. Two weeks after that meeting, peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians imploded, and Clinton has avoided a visit since.

Speaking to Haaretz, senior U.S. officials who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Clinton, who visited neighboring countries more than once in those two years, has not come to Israel or the Palestinian Authority because she didn’t feel such a trip would result in jump starting stalled peace talks. According to the officials, Clinton wasn’t interested in a visit that wouldn’t bear fruit.

The fact that Clinton’s trip comes one week before the arrival of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney gives the visit an internal-U.S. political spin. American media outlets have been filled with speculations, with many opining that Obama sent Clinton now as a kind of “preemptive visit,” ahead of Romney’s.

While Clinton’s meetings in Israel will likely focus on Iran to a large extent, Israel-Egypt ties are expected to take the spotlight. During the secretary of state’s time in Cairo, she heard soothing rhetoric from Morsi concerning anything related to the future of Israel’s peace deal with Egypt, and she emphasized in her Egyptian press conference that she hoped Morsi and Netanyahu would meet soon.

Another issue Clinton is expected to discuss with Netanyahu is the Palestinian threat that it will put in a bid in September to the United Nation’s General Assembly in an effort to be granted the status of an observer-state that is not a full UN member. Clinton, who met with Abbas last week in Paris, will urge Netanyahu to pledge a significant enough package of gestures to convince the Palestinians against such a bid.

Assad receives last warning to stop moving his WMD: Top generals defect.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 15, 2012, 10:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

Shabiha heavies. Their generals defected

Several high-placed generals bolted Bashar Assad’s inner circle Sunday, July 17, including such key figures as two security services chiefs who were operations commanders of the Alawite Shabiha militia plus the former head of Syria’s chemical and biological administration who took six other generals with him. They all fled to Turkey and defected. A fourth senior general from another security service was assassinated in Aleppo. This is reported exclusively by debkafile’s military sources.

The loss of the generals orchestrating the pro-Assad paramilitary Shabiha’s savage crackdown on the opposition has seriously weakened Assad’s protective circle of trusties and reduced his military and security options.
Also today, the Syrian ruler was given a “last warning” through intelligence channels in the West to leave the warheads and shells loaded with mustard gas, sarin and cyanide where they are. If he dared move them out of the northern and central locations where he deployed them last week, they would be destroyed from the air.
debkafile names the defecting Shabiha commanders as:  Gen. Mohamed Tatouh, Deputy chief of Syrian political intelligence, and Gen. Mohamed Kodissia, deputy chief of the “Palestinian” Intelligence agency (a misnomer: it has nothing to do with Palestinians).

The murdered general, Ali Khallouf, was ambushed by rebels in Aleppo.
Maj. Gen. Adnan Nawras Salou, a Sunnite, who headed the chemical warfare authority until 2008, will no doubt have important intelligence to offer the West about the Assad regime’s current activities and plans for his WMD.
debkafile points to three singular features of the latest wave of defections:
1.  They all managed to spirit their families out of Syria well before they absconded themselves, an operation that must have required weeks of careful and secret preparation. The failure of Assad’s many-tentacled, clandestine agencies to discover what was up and foil the walkouts, attests to serious lapses in their notorious efficiency.

2.  All the defectors served in Damascus at the regime’s nerve center for suppressing the revolt.
3.  They all made tracks for Beirut before making their way to Turkey. Neverthetheless, the extensive spy networks run by Iran and Hizballah in the Lebanese capital failed to pick up on the city’s use as a way station for Syrian defectors in flight to Turkey.

4.  Despite their active roles in crushing the civil uprising in Syria, those generals clearly hoped to escape the consequences of their actions and becoming liable for prosecution.  The Red Cross Committee in Geneva, the first international organization to call the violence in Syria a full-blown civil war, made it clear Sunday, July 15, that international humanitarian law applied henceforth throughout the country and provided a basis for war crimes prosecution, especially if civilians were attacked.