Only fraction of powerful explosive sent to east African country has been recovered; police ask court to deny the suspects bail for fear they could continue plotting attacks on Israeli, US targets
Two Iranians accused of planning attacks on Western targets in Kenya shipped more than 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of powerful explosive into this east African country, and most of it has not been recovered, a police officer told a court Tuesday.
Iranian nationals Ahmad Abolfathi Mohammad and Sayed Mansour Mousavi are charged with preparing to commit acts intended to cause grievous harm after they were arrested last month and led officials to a 15-kilogram (33-pound) stash of the explosive RDX.
Police Sgt. Erick Opagal, an investigator with Kenya’s Anti-Terrorism Police Unit, asked the court to deny the two suspects bail because more than 85 kilograms (187 pounds) of the explosive authorities say was shipped into Kenya has not been found.
Suspects at court earlier this month (Photo: AP)
“The police have information that the applicants (suspects) have a vast network in the country meant to execute explosive attacks against government installations, public gatherings and foreign establishments,” Opagal said in an affidavit.
Granting bail would allow the suspects to continue planning attacks, he told the court.
Officials in Kenya say the two suspects may have been planning attacks on Israeli, American, British or Saudi Arabian interests in Kenya. Security officials believe the two are members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, an elite and secretive unit that acts against foreign interests.
Israeli resorts possible targets
Iranian agents are suspected in several successful or thwarted attacks – especially against Israeli interests – around the globe over the last year.
Several resorts on Kenya’s coast are Israeli-owned, as is Nairobi’s largest and newest shopping mall. Militants in 2002 bombed an Israeli-owned luxury hotel near the coastal city of Mombasa, killing 13 people. The militants also tried to shoot down an Israeli airliner at the same time. An al-Qaida operative was linked to those attacks.
The two Iranian suspects arrived in Kenya June 12 and traveled to Mombasa on the same day to receive the explosives, Opagal’s affidavit said. They traveled back to Nairobi June 16 after receiving the explosive from an accomplice who is still at large, it said. Opagal said the two were arrested on June 19 in Nairobi and led officers to some of the explosives hidden at a Mombasa golf course.
One of the Iranian’s lawyers, David Kirimi, said Tuesday the prosecution was “blowing the matter out of proportion.” He said his clients were sickly men, one with a liver condition and the other a heart ailment, and their detention was further damaging their health.
Kirimi said the two were civil servants in Iran who were in Kenya on tourist visas.
Prosecutor Daniel Musangi urged the court to deny bail, arguing that they were likely to flee if released.
Magistrate Paul Biwott said he would rule on the bail application on Monday.
Amid talk of possible Iranian role in brokering Syria ceasefire, White House spokesman Carney says, “I don’t think anybody with a straight face could argue that Iran has had a positive impact on developments in Syria.”
Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl / Reuters
WASHINGTON – The White House criticized Tuesday the concept that Tehran could be constructive in resolving the conflict in Syria, after UN mediator Kofi Annan held meetings with Iranian officials.
“I don’t think anybody with a straight face could argue that Iran has had a positive impact on developments in Syria,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said Tuesday.
The comment came after weeks of discussion over Iran’s possible role in helping a UN-brokered attempt at a ceasefire in the strife-riven country in which the US has made it clear that it opposes Iranian participation.
Though Annan had overlooked US objections in reaching out to Iran, Carney still indicating US backing for his efforts.
“Broadly, on the Annan plan, we believe that it is essential that the international community come together behind the plan, that the plan be implemented,” Carney said.
He added, “We remain highly skeptical about Assad’s willingness to meet his commitments, which is another reason why Syria’s future cannot plausibly have Bashar Assad in the government. He’s long since lost his credibility.”
Carney also urged a change of course in countries like Iran that have supported the Syrian leader.
“We also call on other nations to recognize the obvious, which is that allying with Bashar Assad is allying with a tyrant and putting your nation on the wrong side of the Syrian people,” he said.
The last time the US navy sent three aircraft carriers into the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf was just a few short weeks before WTI broke above $110, and aggressive military tensions, coupled with concerns of an imminent invasion of Iran by Israel and/or ‘others’, were running high. Then summer arrived, as did the need to lower the price of gas and crude ahead of a veritable cornucopia of central banks easing into June and July, not to mention the need to keep gas as low as possible into the July 4th holiday. Now that the peak summer months are behind us this is all changing, and 4 months ahead of the presidential election, the need to have the “Wag the Dog” put option to round up the troops, not to mention votes, has arrived, as has the need to return to an outright aggressive military stance where Iran is concerned. Which is why we were not very surprised to learn that that Middle East veteran aircraft carrier, the CVN-74 Stennis, is going right back into Mordor, a few short months after it came back from its long stint in the Fifth Fleet, and will shortly complete the trio of aircraft carriers stationed within miles of Iran.
“Bremerton-based aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis is returning to the Middle East much sooner than expected. The Navy hasn’t officially announced the new deployment plan for the Stennis, said spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Zach Harrell.” The ship came home to Naval Base Kitsap on March 2 after seven months of launching planes into Iraq and Afghanistan. Generally, it wouldn’t go back to the Fifth Fleet area of responsibility for four to five years, after a deployment to the Western Pacific and a maintenance period. But with Iran making threats, crew members learned Saturday they’ll be leaving again in late August for eight months.”
Oh, it is Iran making threats? We get it. Just like Syria is making threats to Turkey after the country “aggressively” took down a Turkish jet which was amicably flying over Syrian territory.
At least with the Stennis back, the US public can sleep soundly because Iran will not feel at all threatened with not two but three carriers, not to mention however many supporting ships:
Two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups — USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Enterprise — are now in the Middle East. The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers in the region, to eight, and moved a converted amphibious transport and docking ship, the USS Ponce, into the Persian Gulf to serve as a floating staging base for military operations or humanitarian assistance. Its first job will be as a hub for mine-clearing, according to Pentagon officials.
At least unlike the the Enterprise, which is currently on its final lifetime assignment for some reason in the Persian Gulf, the Stennis at least is veteran when it comes to all matters Middle Eastern.
The Stennis is familiar with Iranian threats. During its last deployment, which ran from August 2011 to March 2012, it exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The chief of Iran’s military was quoted as telling “the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to the Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf.” The Stennis just went about its business, launching planes to help troops in Afghanistan, though family and friends back home were worried by the news coverage.
U.S. officials said the ships were in international waters, and they won’t tolerate any effort by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-sixth of the world’s oil is transported.
During its last deployment, the Stennis air wing conducted 13,389 sorties in support of troops in both wars, and rescued Iranian cargo ship sailors from pirates.
( An interview with the son of the founder of Hamas. No Westerner dares say the truth like he does. Don’t miss this video. – JW )
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Mosab Yousef in a candid interview about the prophet’s role in perpetuating terror.
The Jerusalem Post Mosab Hassan Yousef stepped out of the airport terminal in a dark suit and tie, looking every inch the Hollywood darling. It’s perhaps not surprising then, that his close friend and the man who accompanied him on his trip to Israel this month, is producer and actor Sam Feuer. Feuer played the role of Yousef Romano in Steven Spielberg’s Munich, a movie about the aftermath of the Black September. Full of intrigue, spies, and clandestine operations—not to mention terror attacks on Israeli citizens—the plot of Spielberg’s cloak-and-dagger movie is not unlike Mosab’s own life as a secret agent.
Most people know the story by now, so I’ll be brief: In 1978, Mosab is born to the son of one of Hamas’ seven founders, Sheikh Hassan Yousef. Prepped to follow in his father’s footsteps and become a terrorist, Mosab starts asking questions until gradually, over the years, he becomes convinced that the ways of Hamas cannot be the truth. He subsequently converts to Christianity. He becomes an agent for Shin Bet. The intelligence he provides prevents terror attacks and leads to the incarceration of Hamas terrorists. In 2007, he leaves the West Bank in favor of the west coast. He gains political asylum in the US and remains there before coming back to Israel for a surprise visit last month.
Something about his life story—and indeed, certain aspects of his personality, including the fearless chutzpah with which he deceived Hamas—is distinctly reminiscent of Frank Abagnale, the real-life protagonist of yet another of Spielberg’s classics, Catch Me If You Can. But unlike the notorious confidence trickster, the former Shin Bet agent did not do what he did to advance his own interests (and neither did he forge millions of dollars worth of checks.) In his own words, Mosab Yousef did what he did in order “to save lives.”
Upon first meeting Yousef, there were a number of things I was curious to discover about his personality. Is he naïve or a realist? Is he extraordinarily foolish or extraordinarily brave? Has playing with fire become a way of life for him or does he take risks out of a sense of moral duty? More than once I was asked by other people, “Is he normal?” Considering the mind-boggling events that have shaped the life of Hamas’ prodigal son, the question is forgivable.
Normal or not, one thing about Mosab Yousef is that he is no politician. When asked whether he has any political aspirations, Yousef answers with a categorical “no.” Given his personality, his answer is hardly surprising. Yousef doesn’t seem to have a single trait that is conducive to being a politician. He has no sense of political correctness, and even though he is polite and refined, he lacks the diplomatic airs and graces of successful politicians. With utmost sincerity and an almost child-like earnestness, Yousef simply states the truth as he sees it.
When one considers that his upbringing was entrenched in a black-and-white value system (Israel is evil, destroying the Jewish State and its citizens is a divinely righteous pursuit, and so on), Yousef’s 180 degree turnaround seems rather miraculous. But then again, perhaps it is precisely because of his black-and-white upbringing that Yousef is now able to view things in such an uncomplicated manner, untainted by the confusion and ideals that so often color Western sensibilities.
Devoid of underlying messages or double entendre, he states his opinions eloquently. “I love Israel because Israel is a democratic country,” he has said on more than one occasion. Attending a panel on Israel’s future borders at the President’s conference last month in Jerusalem, Yousef loudly applauded the following statement from one of the panelists: “The issue is not whether the world can accept the Jews’ right to this land. The issue is whether Jews will accept their right to this land.” Regarding sovereignty, Yousef maintains an unequivocal party line: “All I can say is that the Israeli historic right to this land is obvious and clear to any person who can read.”
At a press conference a few days prior, Yousef caused a flurry with his explosive comments. “Islam is not a religion of peace, it is a religion of war,” he said. “If people don’t see the truth we will keep spinning an empty cycle of violence.”
But he balances his bombastic remarks by adding that Muslims themselves are a peaceful people. The problem, according to Yousef, is that most Muslims are not educated enough about their religion. “Out of 1.6 billion Muslims, perhaps only 300 million actually understand the language of the Koran,” he said. This is because for most Muslims, Islam is far more than a religion – “it is an identity and culture, it is everything they know.” He further posited that a full understanding of the text and of Mohammed’s life necessarily leads Muslims towards extremism and terrorism. According to Yousef, anyone who studies the life and the behavior of the prophet will arrive at the conclusion that Islam is a religion of war.
Yousef declares, “It is time to expose the life of Muhammed.”
The way that he proposes to do this is by making a feature film on the life of Islam’s apostle. Anyone who was around during the Danish cartoon controversy knows just how dangerous an endeavor this can be. According to the Muslim faith, depicting Muhammad is forbidden, and the violence that erupted following the Danish scandal resulted in over 100 deaths. But Yousef believes that the importance of the project overrides any fallout that may result from portraying Muhammad on the big screen. His aim is to challenge religious authorities by depicting the life of Muhammed in an objective and honest way, and as such it was imperative for the screenwriters to engage with Muslim theologians and remain true to the text of the Koran.
“We are not trying to offend Muslims, we’re trying to bring the truth,” he said. He hopes that the film will target the average Muslim and cause them to revisit the beliefs and ideology upon which they’ve been raised. “If this suicide bomber who is trying to kill many people is motivated by that ideology, I would love to seed [sic] doubt in his head, at least to be able to question before he goes to commit suicide.
“Today we have this powerful medium and the new generation can watch and see and make a judgment. They are looking for a difference in their life – they are looking for a better future. Let’s help them.”
Does Yousef harbor any fears that he may be risking his life by making a movie on Muhammed?
Yousef remains unfazed at the suggestion and answers simply: “There is nothing to be afraid about. We’re doing the right thing and we do it not through the power of conviction or the power of opinion, but through the power of truth.”
Finally, in answer to some of the aforementioned questions I had prior to meeting him, the impression I received is that Mosab Hassan Yousef is a remarkably courageous man with a bold vision and more than a hint of foolhardiness. And is he normal? It is, of course, all relative and perhaps in his new home of Los Angeles the answer might have been different. But here in this region at least, Yousef definitely comes off as one of the sane ones
Iran is copy-catting the deadly Russian Kornet anti-tank missile that Hizbullah used against Israeli soldiers in the Second Lebanon War.
By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
First Publish: 7/10/2012, 3:06 PM
Aftermath of Kornet missile attack on school bus last year
Israel news photo: Flash 90
Iran is copy-catting the deadly Russian Kornet anti-tank missile that Hizbullah used against Israeli soldiers in the Second Lebanon War and which Hamas used to kill a student on a school bus last year.
Quoting defense sources in London and Moscow, the Gulf News website quoted a Russian defense advisor as saying that Iran may have obtained the design for the Kornet missile from Hizbullah. An analyst from Jane’s Defense suggested that Hamas and/ or Syria may have been the source for handing over the design to Iran, which does not have a license from Russia to produce the missile.
IDF intelligence failed to obtain advanced information that Hizbullah possessed the Kornet missile, and Israeli tanks were unprepared for missile attacks that killed dozens of soldiers and wounded hundreds more in the 34-day-old war.
The Kornet has a range of 5.5 kilometers, or 3.5 miles. Hizbullah has said the Kornet missiles destroyed two advanced Israeli Merkava-4 tanks during the war in 2006. The missiles were smuggled into Lebanon from Syria.
Over two years ago, Israel discovered that Hamas also has possession of the missile. In December 2010, former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi announced, “On December 6, a Kornet anti-tank missile fired for the first time in Gaza hit an IDF tank and penetrated its outer shell. Luckily, the missile did not explode inside the tank. We are talking about a massive missile, one of the most dangerous in the battlefield, which has already been used against the IDF in the Lebanon War.”
Hamas used the same missile to attack a school bus approximately a mile from Gaza last year, killing a student. Dozens of other children had stepped off the bus only a few minutes before the attack near Kibbutz Saad, in the western Negev.
Editor’s note: This op-ed by retired ABC News diplomatic correspondent Barrie Dunsmore first appeared in the Barre-Montpelier Times Argus and Rutland Herald Sunday edition. All his columns can be found on his website, www.barriedunsmore.com.
We are now entering what is often the silly season of an American presidential election campaign. We now know for certain who the presidential candidates will be – yet we’re nearly two months away from the nominating conventions. (The Republicans are convening in Tampa, Fla., beginning the week of Aug. 27. The Democrats will gather in Charlotte, N.C., the week of Sept. 3.)Of course the campaign doesn’t stop for a two month summer break. And the bombardment of broadcast campaign ads will continue. But it’s generally accepted that most Americans will not be hanging on every word the candidates speak in this period. That focus usually begins with the conventions and becomes more intense during the final two months until Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 6. So some subtle changes occur during the summer months.
The candidates themselves try to take a little down time and key campaign staffers take short breaks to freshen up for the final fall sprint. So too do some of the big names in the national news media, along with senior editors. Inevitably, with the second string at work, some mistakes are made. And while the replacement boys and girls on the campaign bus are simply trying to prove themselves professionally, in the dearth of real news, so called “controversies” very often get magnified. These pseudo stories are easily identified and rarely last more than one news cycle – although candidates on vacation must guard against the silly photo that can have lasting negative impact. (Think John Kerry windsurfing in his skintight wetsuit.)
However this doesn’t mean nothing important is going to happen in the presidential race during the dog days of summer. As someone who watches the campaign with more than casual interest, I have my list of “game changing” events which might well determine the outcome of the election- or at very least, be big enough to upset much of the conventional wisdom. One of the items on my list has already occurred, namely, the Supreme Court decision that the Affordable Care Act was indeed constitutional.
I believed that if the Court found even a portion of President Barack Obama’s most significant legislative accomplishment to be in violation of the Constitution, that would tip the scales in favor of Gov. Mitt Romney. I could picture the Republicans and their multi-million dollar Super PACs (financed by ultra-conservative billionaires thanks to the Citizens United Supreme Court decision) deluging the airwaves with ads mocking Obama – the professor of constitutional law – for trying to foist an unconstitutional program upon the American people. It remains to be seen how important Health Care will be as a campaign issue. But in my view, Chief Justice John Roberts’ unexpected yes vote very likely saved Obama from defeat in November.
My most important potential game changer between now and November is an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
My second potential game changer is the collapse of the European economic union which uses the Euro as its common currency. Because the European Union is America’s largest trading partner, and because major U.S. banks are holding big chunks of European debt, the break-up of the Euro- zone would have major impact here. If it were to happen before the presidential election, that would be bad news for the president. In reality, the power of the American presidency over European economic policy is slim to none. But the Republicans would be eager to add a new global recession to the top of the list of failures of Obama’s management of the economy – and that would certainly strengthen Romney’s hand.But my most important potential game changer between now and November is an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. And this has become more likely because the diplomatic effort to get Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions has faltered. The series of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have stalled over Iran’s claim of the legal right to reprocess its uranium to a level of 20 percent which is a relatively short step from nuclear weapons grade. And in spite of sanctions on its oil industry which a few days ago Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called the most onerous in history, he insisted they would not affect Iran’s nuclear plans.
Iran earns 80 percent of its national budget though oil experts. And so far this year due to sanctions, exports have fallen 40 percent, costing Iranians billions of dollars each month. But Iran remains defiant. It has again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz which is the choke point in the Persian Gulf through which much of the world’s oil supply must pass. This past week Iran also held a three day military exercise that included test-firing missiles capable of hitting targets in Israel and American bases in the Middle East. The Revolutionary Guard Corps commander of the exercise said he has contingency plans to hit 35 American bases within minutes of any attack against his country.
If the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should decide that all this means both diplomacy and sanctions have failed to halt Iran’s nuclear program, an Israeli strike against Iran could well take place before the American presidential election. Obama and nearly all former Israeli national security experts have argued against such a pre-emptive attack – because it would be a relatively minor setback to Iran’s nuclear program while it could ignite the entire Middle East in a major war. However Romney and his neo-conservative advisers apparently have no reservations about such a war, and have criticized Obama for even negotiating with Iran.
In fact, if the Israelis do attack Iran it will be assumed by all in the region, and certainly by the Iranians, that the United States was involved. Like it or not, Obama and America will be dragged in. So in terms of the presidential election, war with Iran might or might not be a game changer. But as for America’s vital national security and economic interests, such a war will be a disaster.
Deputies to negotiate before top-level ‘contact’ aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions
Catherine Ashton (photo credit: courtesy EU)
VIENNA (AP) — A European Union official says EU and Iranian representatives will meet July 24 to discuss whether there is enough common ground to restart stalled talks over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Michael Mann says Helga Schmid, a deputy to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, will meet with Ali Bagheri, Iran’s deputy nuclear negotiator.
The statement Monday by Mann, Ashton’s spokesman, said the two would see how gaps could be narrowed. Their meeting will then be followed by a “contact” between Ashton and chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.
The U.S. and five other world powers want Iran to curb nuclear enrichment, which can produce both reactor fuel and nuclear warhead material. Iran refuses, saying its enrichment is only for peaceful purposes.
Recent high-level talks convened by Ashton failed to narrow differences.
Second day of exercise sees military units training to protect sensitive industrial areas.
An Iranian nuclear facility. Iran has been practicing air defense for its sensitive industrial sites. (photo credit: CC-BY nanking2010/Wikipedia)
Iran entered into the second day of a large air defense exercise that simulated the penetration of enemy planes into its territory, the country’s Fars News Agency reported on Monday.
The spokesman for the current air defense drills, General Shahroukh Shahram, boasted that Iran’s military units are more than ready to defend the country against an air assault.
“Ground-to-air missile and artillery systems of Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Army are fully prepared to defend the Islamic homeland’s territory,” he declared.
During the course of the exercises, held in the northwestern region of Iran, radar units first practiced identifying invading aircraft attempting to reach sensitive industrial areas and then scrambling planes to head them off.
The three-day military maneuvers began on Sunday and focus on “defending the Islamic Republic of Iran’s vital national interests and national security,” Fars said.
Israel has long indicated that a military strike against Iran might be necessary to stop the regime’s nuclear program should diplomatic efforts fail.
Tough Western sanctions are forcing Iran to take drastic action and shut off wells at its vast oilfields, sinking production to levels last seen over two decades ago and costing Tehran billions in lost revenues.
Iran struggled to sell its oil in the run-up to the European Union ban on July 1, yet it managed to sustain oilfield flows at lofty rates above 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by stashing unwanted barrels in tanks on land and on ships in the Gulf.
But oil sales have now slumped to half the rate of last year and storage is running out. As a last resort, Tehran is carrying out “enforced” maintenance at its ageing reservoirs, say Iranian and Western oil sources, dropping output below 3 million bpd.
It’s a step that could make Tehran look as if it is caving in to the West and, in any case, leaves it trailing former rival Iraq in the ranks of the world’s top oil producers. And if a big volume of oil is closed down, it will be difficult to bring it back online when it’s needed, say Western oil experts.
“We’re now in a situation where we are being forced to reduce production – so we will prolong the rehabilitation of our oilfields,” said an Iranian oil source, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.
“But it’s a mistake to think this will make us put our hands up. Iran will not surrender.”
Nor will Iran say very much, if anything. Oil sales began to slow in March due to the rigorous restraints imposed by the United States and European Union, but Iran only conceded in June that exports had fallen significantly.
As for lower production, an inevitable result of a sustained slowdown in exports, the Islamic Republic has gone further into lock-down mode – making it exceedingly difficult to obtain precise information.
“In operations – upstream or downstream – maintenance is not something unexpected,” said an Iranian oil official, who insisted on anonymity. “It is very normal to have some maintenance.”
He declined to comment on whether Iran had taken the opportunity to work-over its oilfields with exports now running about 1 million bpd below last year.
Western oil experts reckon tight storage and plunging oil sales may have forced Tehran to turn down the oilfield taps by at least several hundred thousand barrels a day.
“The pressure is definitely on, but it’s difficult to know the details,” said a senior Western oil executive. “What is clear is that the situation is extremely complicated and delicate and things are not being said in public.”
Adding a further layer of complexity, there are changing faces among the top brass at the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC). On the job for just a year, Mohsen Qamsari, head of international affairs, has just been replaced by Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Tehran’s representative on OPEC’s governing board.
Exports fall
Oil shipments have declined steadily as buyers cut imports to comply with U.S. and European Union sanctions imposed due to concerns the country is attempting to build a nuclear bomb. Iran says its nuclear activities are peaceful.
Last month, Iran acknowledged that exports had fallen sharply – down 20-30 percent from normal volumes of 2.2 million barrels daily.
A National Iranian Oil Company official, Mohammad Ali Emadi, put the decrease down to oilfield maintenance and not sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program.
When pressed for further details on the oilfield overhauls, three senior Iranian officials declined to comment. There is no end of speculation among Western executives and policy-makers.
“I have heard that some fields are shut in and just by looking at the numbers, I believe that’s correct. I don’t think they have much more space to put oil,” said an industry source who tracks Iranian production and exports.
“But I am sure they don’t want to admit it or give away any ideas on which fields.”
In April, shipping sources said Iran had been forced to deploy more than half its fleet to store oil at anchorage in the Gulf, equating to 33 million barrels. The country is expected to store at least a further 8.3 million barrels this month.
Those who track the oil shipments of Iran and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries say there is precious little available storage in tanks onshore.
“It’s full up. It got full quite quickly before the floating storage started getting filled up,” said the industry source.
Long-term damage
While oil industry experts say that shutting in production is beneficial to Iran’s hard-worn reservoirs, a prolonged closure of high volumes would not be desirable.
“The more production is shut in, the harder and longer it is to bring back production when it is needed,” said Peter Wells of geological consultancy Neftex Petroleum.
Iranian engineers have been battling for years to get the best out of Iran’s oilfields, for decades deprived of easy access to cutting-edge technology designed to maximize flows due to successive rounds of U.S. sanctions.
Output from Iran’s ageing fields has slumped from 3.9 million bpd in 2005, according to OPEC, as recovery rates are relatively low due to Western restrictions on technology transfers needed to counter production declines or tap trickier discoveries offshore.
Iran is meanwhile dipping deep into savings to fund investment in its energy industry, while increasing its refining capacity for the home market, reporting giant new oil or gas finds, and even touting investment in renewable energy as a possible solution to dependence on oil.
On July 3 – two days after the EU embargo on Iranian oil took effect – Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for his ministry to tap the National Development Fund, a sovereign wealth fund largely filled with oil revenues accumulated in better days, for $14 billion.
The fund, now valued at around $35 billion, is the successor of a fund set up in 1999, when oil was below $10 per barrel, to save money for a rainy day.
Qasemi said the move “indicates that the country has enough financial resources to fund projects”. The ministry will also issue bonds to raise cash.
The government could be in for a long haul.
“There is an increasing desperation,” said a Western oil executive. “It seems very unlikely they will get any relief from sanctions any time soon.”
Syrian National Council said in a statement on the eve of a visit to Moscow by the opposition group’s chief that there can be no transition in Syria until President Assad falls. (Reuters)
Russia said Tuesday it wanted to host a new meeting of foreign powers concerning the Syria crisis but stressed that the talks should not decide the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.
Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said the attempt made in Geneva on June 30 to save international envoy Kofi Annan’s tattered peace plan for the crisis needed to be continued with the involvement countries such as Iran, according to AFP.
“We would welcome organizing another Action Group meeting in Moscow. But we would also not be opposed to Geneva if special representative (Annan) and group participants find this more appropriate,” he told the Interfax news agency.
Bogdanov added that the talks would benefit from the presence of such Syrian allies as Iran — strongly opposed by both Washington and European powers — as well opposition group supporters Saudi Arabia and other regional states.
The Geneva talks ended with a broad consensus on the need for a transition of power in Syria but disagreement over Assad’s fate.
Russia stressed that the final text made no mention of the strongman’s future while U.S. Secretary of States Hillary Clinton argued that his ouster was implicit because the plan excluded those with “blood on their hands.”
Bogdanov said Russia was not “holding on to Assad” but defending basic international principles that prevented powerful nations from deciding the internal conflicts of smaller states.
“The fate of a particular leader should be decided by the people in accordance with international legislation,” said Bogdanov.
Meanwhile, the Syrian National Council said in a statement on the eve of a visit to Moscow by the opposition group’s chief that there can be no transition in Syria until President Assad falls.
“Our main goal is to continue on the path of the revolution and the demands of the Syrian people,” the SNC said on Tuesday, emphasizing that its priority was to “work for the fall of the Assad regime and all its symbols.”
The SNC statement came a day before the coalition’s new leader Abdul Basset Sayda was due to travel to Moscow at the invitation of the Russian foreign ministry, it said.
The fall of the Assad regime was a prerequisite, the statement said, “of any negotiations to arrange a transfer of power and the start of a transitional phase.”
Sayda, an outspoken critic of Moscow’s policies towards Damascus, was due to visit Russia two days after top Syrian dissident Michel Kilo made a similar trip.
Russia, a close ally of Damascus, has repeatedly refused to back any international resolution on Syria calling for military intervention in the 16-month-old crisis.
The SNC said it would hold fast to its call on the international community to invoke Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, which contemplates military action among other coercive measures.
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