WarSclerotic

Morsi to visit Iran next month, fueling hopes in Tehran for warmer ties | The Times of Israel.

New Egyptian leader to attend conference; Iran’s FM seeks upgraded relations

Egypt’s new president, Mohammed Morsi (center), leaves Friday prayers at Al-Azhar mosque in Cairo last month (photo credit: Amr Nabil/AP)

Newly elected Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi is to travel to Iran next month, fueling expectations in Tehran of a warming of relations with Egypt under its Muslim Brotherhood leadership.

Morsi will participate in an international conference of the Non-Aligned Movement, Egyptian and Lebanese media outlets reported on Tuesday afternoon.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying he hoped the visit would strengthen ties between the two countries and lead to an upgrading of their diplomatic relations, with the re-opening of their embassies and an exchange of ambassadors.

Morsi automatically became chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement when he took on presidential responsibilities last week, the Prensa Latina news agency reported, but will relinquish the position during next month’s meeting to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Last week, Morsi denied an Iranian report that said he wanted to strengthen ties with Iran. The Iranian Fars News Agency claimed to have interviewed him, and quoted him saying, “This will create a balance of pressure in the region, and this is part of my program.” The same article also claimed he had said he would reconsider the peace treaty with Israel.

Egypt’s Al-Ahram, citing the official MENA news agency, quoted Morsi’s spokesman as saying that Morsi had not granted an interview to Fars and that everything printed in the article was “without foundation.”

The Non-Aligned Movement is made up of a large group of states considering themselves not formally aligned with or against any major international power bloc. The group typically takes positions critical of US foreign policy.

U.S. Adds Forces in Persian Gulf, a Signal to Iran – NYTimes.com.

NASA, via Associated Press

The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf beyond it, as seen from the International Space Station in 2003. Iran is to the right.

By THOM SHANKER, ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID E. SANGER.

Published: July 3, 2012

The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”

¶ But at a moment that the United States and its allies are beginning to enforce a much broader embargo on Iran’s oil exports, meant to force the country to take seriously the negotiations over sharply limiting its nuclear program, the buildup carries significant risks, including that Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps could decide to lash out against the increased presence.

¶ The most visible elements of this buildup are Navy ships designed to vastly enhance the ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz — and to reopen the narrow waterway should Iran attempt to mine it to prevent Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters from sending their tankers through the vital passage.

¶ The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in what military officers describe as a purely defensive move.

¶ “The message to Iran is, ‘Don’t even think about it,’ ” one senior Defense Department official said. “Don’t even think about closing the strait. We’ll clear the mines. Don’t even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We’ll put them on the bottom of the gulf.” Like others interviewed, the official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the diplomatic and military situation.

¶ Since late spring, stealthy F-22 and older F-15C warplanes have moved into two separate bases in the Persian Gulf to bolster the combat jets already in the region and the carrier strike groups that are on constant tours of the area. Those additional attack aircraft give the United States military greater capability against coastal missile batteries that could threaten shipping, as well as the reach to strike other targets deeper inside Iran.

¶ And the Navy, after a crash development program, has moved a converted amphibious transport and docking ship, the Ponce, into the Persian Gulf to serve as the Pentagon’s first floating staging base for military operations or humanitarian assistance.

¶ The initial assignment for the Ponce, Pentagon officials say, is to serve as a logistics and operations hub for mine-clearing. But with a medical suite and helicopter deck, and bunks for combat troops, the Ponce eventually could be used as a base for Special Operations forces to conduct a range of missions, including reconnaissance and counterterrorism, all from international waters.

¶ For President Obama, the combination of negotiations, new sanctions aimed at Iran’s oil revenues and increased military pressure is the latest — and perhaps the most vital — test of what the White House calls a “two track” policy against Iran. In the midst of a presidential election campaign in which his opponent, Mitt Romney, has accused him of being “weak” in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue, Mr. Obama seeks to project toughness without tipping into a crisis in the region.

¶ At the same time he must signal support for Israel, but not so much support that the Israelis see the buildup as an opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities, which Mr. Obama’s team believes could set off a war without significantly setting back the Iranian program.

¶ A key motivation for “Olympic Games,” the covert effort to undermine Iran’s enrichment capability with cyberattacks, has been to demonstrate to the Israelis that there are more effective ways to slow the program than to strike from the air.

¶ But this delicate signaling to both Iran and Israel is a complex dance. Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said that the administration must strike a fine balance between positioning enough forces to deter Iran, but not inadvertently indicate to Iran or Israel that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is imminent or inevitable

¶ “There are a lot of expectations to manage,” Mr. Kerry said in an interview. “People need to know you’re serious, but you must also leave room for peaceful resolution. It’s very important not to take steps that send the wrong messages here.”

There is little evidence that the increased pressure is having the desired effect. Negotiations with Iran are at a stalemate, though a group of Iranian, American and European experts are expected to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday to review a recent American proposal and Iranian response. So far, though, Iran has strenuously resisted all efforts to force it to give up enrichment of uranium, starting with production of a type that is considered relatively close to bomb grade.

Responding to the tightening of Western sanctions, Iran on Monday announced that it would consider proposed legislation to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz as well as missile tests, in a drill clearly intended as a warning to Israel and the United States.

The Iranian legislation calls for Iran’s military to block any oil tanker en route to countries no longer buying Iranian crude because of the embargo. It was unclear whether the legislation would pass or precisely how Iran would enforce it.

Senior Pentagon and military officials acknowledge that Iran has the capability to close the strait, at least temporarily, and the additional mine-clearing forces can be viewed as both concrete and spoken evidence of Washington’s commitment to make sure any closing is as brief as possible.

The most significant Iranian threat to shipping came during its war of attrition with Iraq in the 1980s. Iran attacked tankers and other commercial traffic to disrupt Iraq’s oil revenues and threaten shipments from other Arab states viewed as supporting Baghdad. Iran also laid significant numbers of mines in an attempt to block transit, prompting mine-clearing operations and attacks on the Iranian Navy by American warships.

Defense Department officials stressed that the recent reshaping of American forces in the Persian Gulf region should not be viewed as solely about the potential nuclear threat from Iran.

“This is not only about Iranian nuclear ambitions, but about Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions,” the senior Defense Department official said.

“This is a complex array of American military power that is tangible proof to all of our allies and partners and friends that even as the U.S. pivots toward Asia, we remain vigilant across the Middle East.”

While American ground troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, a force equivalent to an extra Army combat brigade has remained in Kuwait, officials said. It could have many roles to contain regional instability, but Iran is a primary concern.

While it always is difficult to read Iran’s intentions, senior American Navy officers have noted that Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf have refrained recently from provocative behavior.

“Things have been, relatively speaking, quiet,” said Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert, the chief of naval operations, assessing actions by Iranian Navy vessels over “the last couple of months.”

But that was without the pressure of the new sanctions; already Iran is exporting far less oil every day than a year ago: about 1.5 million barrels a day versus 2.5 million before the gradual imposition of earlier sanctions.

While Iranian vessels have avoided any confrontations with allied warships in recent weeks, Iran expects to equip its ships in the Strait of Hormuz soon with shorter-range missiles, a Revolutionary Guards commander said on Friday, according to the semiofficial Mehr news agency.

With an eye on the threat of a belligerent Iran, the administration is also seeking to expand military ties with the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

The United States and 19 other countries will hold a major mine countermeasure exercise in the Persian Gulf in September, said a senior military officer who noted that countries in the region were taking more steps in their own defense, including buying American-made air defense systems and other weaponry.

Source: Iran preparing to down American passenger planes | The Daily Caller.

By Reza Kahlili

Bio | Archive | Email Reza Kahlili

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In this Feb. 1, 2009 file photo, American Airlines jets are seen at the Miami International Airport in Miami. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, file)

A source who served in Iranian intelligence says the Iranian regime is preparing to down Western airliners in case of an attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has been preparing for war for some time as the Islamic regime closes in on developing nuclear weapons, says a source who served in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence and has recently defected to a country in Europe.

The source said the regime has taken several measures should war erupt:

• Thirty-two command and control centers have been formed around the country so that the Guards and the Basij can act independently in battle. In case of a breakdown of communication with the central government, their orders are to suppress any uprising from within and confront any potential enemy.
• All political prisoners and all activists within the country are to be slaughtered, as are those Iranian opponents outside the country, to ensure no viable opposition will remain to guide an uprising to overthrow of the regime.
• Thousands of cells have been established in collaboration with Hezbollah to conduct terrorist acts against Israel, America and the West. One specific preparation, as discussed by the Guard commanders, is to target America’s civilian airliners in order to cause terror in the West.

Elaborating on the regime’s strategy, Morteza Mirban, the deputy commander of the Guards’ ground forces, recently told Basij News that the Basij forces have the capability to hurt aggressors even in their own countries.

Mirban boasted that soon the Guards will have armaments that the enemy could have never imagined.

Referring to possible terrorist attacks on U.S. vessels in the gulf, Mirban said, “Today over 3,000 boats are in the Persian Gulf and involved in commerce, constantly passing by America’s naval ships. The question is, how can America engage us in war not knowing how it will get hit next? If they (America) dare to take up arms, they will see how they will regret their act.”

Mirban said that “all of the enemy’s bases are within reach of our missiles, and with our allies such as Hezbollah, we are capable of hitting them thousands of kilometers away. The enemy is interested in life, but because of our ideology, no matter if we kill for Allah or be killed on Allah’s path, we are victorious.”

The source said that Iran is close to obtaining a nuclear bomb, which regime leaders believe will make them invincible. The source and others disenchanted with the regime also wonder why the West is vacillating and allowing Iran to pursue its destructive goals.

The Revolutionary Guards announced Sunday that they will conduct three days of war games starting Monday.

“Long-, medium- and short-range surface-to-surface missiles will be fired from different locations in Iran … at replica air bases like those used by (U.S.) military forces,” said Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Guards aerospace division in charge of missile systems.

European oil sanctions against Iran began Sunday, but the Iranian regime met them with defiance and threats against the West.

“Our doctrine of threat against threat mandates that any confrontation will be responded to by a greater attack, and we are ready for it,” Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, the deputy head of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an speech marking the anniversary of the downing of an Iranian civilian airliner on July 3, 1988.

The guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes mistook Iran Air Flight 655, a civilian jetliner, for a fighter plane in the heat of confrontation with Iran over the Iran-Iraq war. All 290 passengers, including 66 children, died in that incident.

“There is a possibility that America will commit the same heinous crime (as it did in 1988), but this time the response will be harsh where we will make them regret their act,” Jazayeri said, according to Sepah News, the official media outlet of the Revolutionary Guards.

The only way to avoid such retaliation again is for America to leave the region, Jazayeri said. “Only then will it be safe.”

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the author of the award winning book “A Time to Betray.” He is a senior Fellow with EMPact America, a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).

U.S. moves new forces to Gulf to ward off Iran: report.

Tuesday, 03 July 2012

Iranian military personnel pray as they stand behind a cleric on a naval ship on Sea of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened to close the strategic Strait at the entrance to the Gulf if its nuclear program is targeted by air strikes. (Reuters)

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The United States has moved new forces into the Gulf to keep strategic waterways open and strike deep within Iran in the event of a regional military escalation, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

The Times cited senior officials as saying the quiet build-up was aimed at reassuring Israel that Washington is serious about addressing Iran’s nuclear program and keeping the Straits of Hormuz — a key oil choke point — open.

“The message to Iran is, ‘Don’t even think about it,’ “it quoted a senior Defense Department official as saying.

“Don’t even think about closing the strait. We’ll clear the mines. Don’t even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We’ll put them on the bottom of the Gulf.”

The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers in the region, to eight vessels, and stealthy F-22s and older F-15C warplanes have been deployed to regional bases to reinforce existing carrier strike groups, the Times said.

On Tuesday Iranian media reported that Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards test fired several ballistic missiles, including a long-range variety capable of hitting U.S. bases in the region as well as Israel,.

The official IRNA news agency said the surface-to-surface missiles successfully hit their targets, while semi-official Fars said the salvos included the so-called Shahab-3 missile. It quoted a leading officer as saying the missiles travelled distances of up to 1,300 kilometers, or 800 miles.

“So far, we have launched missiles from 300 to 1,300 kilometers in the maneuver,” said Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who heads the Guards’ aerospace division. He hinted that some missiles had an even longer range.

Iran has tested a variety of missiles in previous war games, including a Shahab-3 variant with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles).

Israel is about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) away from Iran’s western borders, while the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, some 200 kilometers (120 miles) from Iranian shores in the Persian Gulf.

On Sunday, a European Union oil embargo meant to pressure Iran over its nuclear program came into effect. The West suspects the Islamic Republic wants to build nuclear weapons, and Israel has hinted at an attack if diplomatic efforts and sanctions fail to eliminate what it sees as a direct threat.

Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, such as power generation and cancer treatment.

The commander quoted by Fars said Iran also plans to use both unmanned and manned bombers in the war games.

He said Iran is testing a variety of other missiles in the exercises, which Tehran says aim to assess the accuracy and effectiveness of its warheads and weapons systems.

Iran reports success firing dozens of missiles at ‘enemy bases’ in military drill | The Times of Israel.

Weapons destroy mock targets of ‘ultra-regional forces,’ official news agency claims

A missile displayed during a military parade outside Tehran. Iran has continued to buy weaponry despite sanctions. (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps successfully fired dozens of short-, medium- and long-range rockets as part of a major drill aimed at simulating attacks on foreign targets, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported Tuesday.

The missiles reportedly targeted and destroyed mock bases of “ultra-regional forces” set up in a desert region in central Iran.

Tuesday is the second day of the three-day “The Great Prophet 7″ exercise, during which the IRGC is practicing firing ballistic missiles simultaneously in different locations, according to IRNA.

On Sunday Revolutionary Guards general Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that the exercise should be seen as a message “that the Islamic Republic of Iran is resolute in standing up to… bullying, and will respond to any possible evil decisively and strongly.”

“If they take any action, they will hand us an excuse to wipe them off the face of the earth,” said Hajizadeh, evidently referring to Israel.

Hajizadeh also said Iran has produced an anti-radar missile called “Arm” that can hit any source of radar. He said the weapon could travel at several times the speed of sound, had an estimated range of 300 kilometers, and could “damage” missile shields in Turkey and Gulf countries.

Iran’s Shihab-3 missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) and can reach Israel and southern Europe.

Assad: I wish downed Turkish jet had been … JPost – Middle East.+

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer Turkey