Archive for July 1, 2012

Iran pledges to counter ‘malicious’ oil embargo

July 1, 2012

Iran pledges to counter ‘malicio… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS
07/01/2012 13:43
Tehran’s Central Bank says it has $150 billion foreign reserves as European Union oil sanctions take effect.

Iranian crude oil supertanker "Delvar" Photo: Tim Chong/Reuters

DUBAI – Iran dismissed a European Union oil embargo which took effect on Sunday and said it was fully prepared to counter the impact of sanctions with a $150 billion war chest of foreign reserves.

The EU ban on crude imports is part of a push by Western countries aimed at choking Iran’s export earnings to try to force it to curb a nuclear program they fear includes weapons development. Tehran says it has no such plan.

“All possible options have been planned in government to counter sanctions and we are fully prepared to deal with them,” Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said in comments on the ministry’s website.

Qasemi said Iranian oil was still being sold on international markets and that oil importers would be the big losers if a blockade leads to price rises.

The United States also has sanctions in place, although it has spared all 20 of Iran’s major oil buyers from measures against them for dealing in Iranian crude for now.

The European Union banned new contracts for imports of Iranian crude in January, but allowed existing ones to continue until July 1. The embargo also covers transporting Iranian crude or insuring shippers who are carrying it.

There are signs the embargo is already having an impact on Iran’s economy.

Its crude oil exports – which according to EU estimates represent some 80 percent of the government’s export revenues and half of its income – have fallen by 40 percent this year. Iran used to export a fifth of its crude to EU countries.

The Iranian rial has fallen sharply and inflation is running at 20 percent. Tens of thousands of Iranians have lost their jobs and trade between Iran and Europe has halved in a year, according to Eurostat data from March.

The governor of Iran’s central bank said it had built up $150 billion in foreign reserves to protect itself.

“We are implementing programs to counter sanctions and we will confront these malicious policies,” Mehr news agency quoted Mahmoud Bahmani as saying.

In three rounds of negotiations, Western powers have demanded Tehran halt its high-grade uranium enrichment activities, ship all high-grade uranium out of the country and close down a key enrichment facility.

Iran says its nuclear program has only peaceful aims, but Western countries and Israel fear Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

“Unprecedented oil sanctions on Iran have come into force,” British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement on Sunday.

“These are the toughest measures the EU has adopted against Iran to date. They signal our clear determination to intensify the peaceful diplomatic pressure on the Iranian government.”

EU oil embargo on Iran takes effect. Gulf braced for backlash, Hormuz closure

July 1, 2012

EU oil embargo on Iran takes effect. Gulf braced for backlash, Hormuz closure.

DEBKAfile Special Report July 1, 2012, 9:58 AM (GMT+02:00)

 

Repaired Saudi-Iraq pipeline bypasses Hormuz

The European oil embargo taking effect Sunday, July 1 blocks the sale to European Union members of 1 million, or one third, of Iran’s daily output of 3.3 million barrels a day. EU insurance firms, the biggest in the world, henceforth withhold cover from governments and firms operating tankers which carry Iranian oil.  

This sanction was threatened in January if diplomatic negotiations in the interim failed to persuade Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil producer, to halt work on developing a nuclear weapon.

Three rounds of talks by six world powers (US, Russia, UK, France, China and Germany) with Iran have since ended in impasse. A fourth at a technical level is scheduled for Tuesday, July 3, in Istanbul.
Braced against potential reprisals from Tehran, Saud Arabia and fellow Gulf nations have placed their armies on alert. Completing a deployment begun last Thursday for possible intervention in Syria, Saudi Arabia has massed units on its borders with Jordan, Iraq and Kuwait. The United Arab Emirates sea, air and special forces are on a state of readiness, as are US Fifth Fleet vessels in Gulf waters.
While not anticipating full-scale war, they are acutely apprehensive of possible Iranian strikes against Gulf oil fields, export terminals, pipelines or tankers either by covert Al Qods Brigades squads or local Shiite saboteurs.
Tehran has repeatedly threatened to treat an oil embargo as an act of war and close the strategic Strait of Hormuz to Gulf shipping in response.

Two days before the oil embargo went into effect, Saudi Arabia and the UAE activated two extra oil pipelines bypassing Hormuz and providing alternative routes for their oil to continue to flow to export markets if the Straits are blocked.

The Saudis repaired and enlarged the disused “Iraq Pipeline in Saudi Arabia” –IPS, a 25-year old pipe running 750 kilometers from eastern Saudi oil fields to the Yanbu refineries and export terminal complex on the Red Sea. Riyadh is keeping its volume a trade secret. However international oil experts estimate its capacity at around one-fifth of the Saudi production of around 9.5 million bpd.
The UAE’s 380-kilometer long Habshan-Fujairah pipeline is brand new. Operating from June, it is able to carry 1.5 million bpd of this group’s total 2.5 million bpd output out to the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah.
American and French forces went on standby at this port since Saturday. Tehran could attack both of these pipelines as one form of reprisal for the tough, new sanction.
Friday, June 29, a senior Revolutionary Guards Corp general announced that missiles with a range of 300 kilometers were to be installed on Iranian warships on duty in the vicinity of the Hormuz Straits.

debkafile’s military sources are looking at next Tuesday, when nuclear talks are due to resume at a technical level, as a critical moment for a possible Iranian response to the oil embargo.  Tehran may make its attendance at the Istanbul meeting conditional on the lifting of the oil embargo. This would effectively wind down the international effort to reach a nuclear accommodation with Iran by diplomacy and open the door to other options.

Iranian lawmakers Saturday dismissed the EU oil embargo as “very little and insignificant” and declared that economic sanctions and Western pressure would have “no effect on Iran’s determination on its path toward development and progress.” The Iranian Majlis’ Economic commission will announce its “scientific and pragmatic policies in the coming days.”

 

Who wants Israel to bomb Iran?

July 1, 2012

Who wants Israel to bomb Iran? – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

The one who most wants an Israeli attack on Iran is Ahmadinejad, whose heart’s desire is apparently to deal a very heavy blow, if not a deathblow, to Israel.

By Elia Leibowitz | Jul.01, 2012 | 4:32 AM

The whole world very much wants Israel to send its pilots and planes to bomb Iran. Only a few senior Israelis oppose the move – most of them ex-officers in the defense establishment, as well as a handful of people who aren’t listened to “because they don’t know anything.”

With these exceptions, there is a worldwide consensus in favor of an Israeli attack; it includes presidents Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin and Francois Hollande, and Chancellor Angela Merkel. The heads of the Arab states are also on board, as are, of course, the governments of every other country. The one who most wants an Israeli attack on Iran is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

No reasonable person can ignore the increasing danger to civilization if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Iran joins the atomic club. In addition to the nuclear danger, such a development could have ramifications on the balance of power, the world economy and Islam’s standing around the globe. The leaders of every country are aware of this danger and are doing what they consider their utmost to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Some people want us to believe that the fear of an Israeli attack on Iran is a key element in encouraging world leaders to act urgently to stop Iran’s nuclearization. The opposite is true.

According to the powers, there are several obstacles on the way to an attack on Iran. One is public opinion. Another is the realization deep in the heads of the American, Russian and perhaps even the Chinese leaders that it’s impossible to use military force to defeat a community of 79 million people. Another obstacle, one seen mainly by European leaders, is the fear of violent revenge in their countries by Iran’s religious and fanatical rulers. Iran has the means to deal painful blows to Europe, and Iran’s leaders are likely to use them without considering the price Iran itself would pay.

Most obstacles to a strike on Iran would be removed if Tehran clearly attacked another country, even if that country were Israel. To the world, which is looking on in fear, an Israeli attack on Iran would be the worm on the hook for Tehran to swallow. Its response, which would not be long in coming, would give the powers the green light to use military force to end the Iranian nuclear threat, at least temporarily. The fact that the worm would be destroyed or at least badly hurt doesn’t interest the French president, who was elected to defend Paris, not Tel Aviv or Dimona.

The one who most wants an Israeli attack on Iran is Ahmadinejad, whose heart’s desire is apparently to deal a very heavy blow, if not a deathblow, to Israel. But even he understands that he can’t satisfy his desires with an act not rooted in the world’s accepted political culture. Still, an Israeli attack on Iran would give him a freer hand; he would be able to leave office having satisfied more than half his desires.

Ahmadinejad’s behavior in recent years reflects this fairly clearly. There appears to be a basis to the assumption that his conduct is guided by people with expert insight into Israel’s current leaders. He denies the Holocaust with much fanfare, states clearly his desire to eradicate the little Satan, and makes explicit threats against Tel Aviv for the whole world to hear – even the Americans.

He systematically builds his image as Hitler’s double, as Israel’s leaders see him. He’s also preparing nuclear facilities in his country to serve as easy targets for an air strike. He’s doing all this to lure Israel’s leaders to do something on their own initiative. If they do something, Ahmadinejad will have achieved his aim – not to mention his joy when he has 10 captured Israeli pilots in his hands.

If a certain two people in Israel don’t control their urges and willingly join the world’s desire for Israel to attack Iran, the international accord will be complete. For the first time since God stopped the construction of the Tower of Babel, the entire human race will get together with the same goal in mind. It will be up to us Israelis to regret that we’re the ones to pay the price for this rare human harmony.

“New” Annan plan embodies US-Russian stalemate on Syria’s Bashar Assad

July 1, 2012

“New” Annan plan embodies US-Russian stalemate on Syria’s Bashar Assad.

DEBKAfile Special Report June 30, 2012, 10:33 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Kofi Annan: Putting a good face on stalemate

“Agreement on a Syria-led transition based on mutual consent including members of the current government” was the conclusion UN-Arab League peace envoy Kofi Annan reported from the Action Group on Syria meeting in Geneva Saturday, June 30.
He admitted this process could take a whole year. Asked by reporters if people with blood on their hands should be eligible to serve in a transitional unity government, Annan managed to continue avoiding mentioning Assad by commenting that there were many in Syria’s bitter conflict with blood on their hands.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asserted that Assad would never pass the “mutual consent” test because of the blood on his hands and must realize that his days are numbered. She praised the Geneva meeting for setting out a road map paving the way to a post-Assad government.

She was quickly countered by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who stressed that the Geneva documents contained nothing about imposed solutions. It is up to the Syrians themselves to work out their process of transition, he said. The governments meeting in Geneva had each undertaken to apply leverage to the parties they support – in a coordinated way – so as to make them sit down at the negotiating table.
Behind the Kofi Annan’s diplomatic prevarications, it was clear that the Action Group meeting, attended by the five permanent Security Council members and Arab League representatives, had left US-Russian differences over Assad firmly in place and both would carry as before:

The US, in conjunction with Persian Gulf governments, will continue to prepare for military action and look for “creative” ways to topple Assad outside the UN Security Council where Russia stands ready with a veto.

Moscow will stick to its efforts to preserve the Syrian ruler and his regime disguising them by calling for a government in Damascus that represents the will of the Syrian people.
Peace envoy Annan will be kept running back and forth between the two mutually exclusive policies and policies and paths for his mission to get anywhere. As he himself said, mediation is a process which takes time. But that time is being used by the Syria ruler to expand his violence and notch up the fatalities, which in the last fortnight shot past the 100 per day figure to reach a total of 15,800 in the 15-month conflict and going up all the time.

Assad’s fate left open after Syria crisis talks

July 1, 2012

Assad’s fate left open after Syria crisis … JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS
06/30/2012 23:20
Powers agree on transitional government to end bloodshed, but Assad’s part in process unclear.

Special Syria envoy Annan and Russian FM Lavrov
Photo: REUTERS

GENEVA – International powers agreed on Saturday that a transitional government should be set up in Syria to end the bloodshed there but left open the question of what part President Bashar al-Assad might play in the process.

Peace envoy Kofi Annan said after talks in Geneva that the government should include members of Assad’s administration and the Syrian opposition to pave the way for free elections.

“It is for the people to come to a political agreement but time is running out,” Annan said in concluding remarks.

“We need rapid steps to reach agreement. The conflict must be resolved through peaceful dialogue and negotiations.”

The Geneva talks had been billed as a last-ditch effort to halt the worsening violence in Syria but hit obstacles as Russia, Assad’s most powerful ally, opposed Western and Arab insistence that he must quit the scene.

The final communique said the transitional government “could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups and shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent”.

But in a victory for Russian diplomacy, it omitted language contained in a previous draft which explicitly said it “would exclude from government those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation”.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was “delighted” with the result as it meant no foreign solution was being imposed on Syria.

But US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it sent a clear message to Assad that he must step down.

“Assad will still have to go,” Clinton told a news conference after the meeting ended.

“What we have done here is to strip away the fiction that he and those with blood on their hands can stay in power.”

Annan called the meeting to salvage a peace plan that has largely been ignored by the Assad government. He stressed that the transition must be led by Syrians and meet their legitimate aspirations.

“No one should be in any doubt as to the extreme dangers posed by the conflict – to Syrians, to the region, and to the world,” he said in opening remarks.

His plan for a negotiated solution to the 16-month-old conflict is the only one on the table and its failure would doom Syria to even more violence. More than 10,000 people have been killed since the anti-Assad uprising broke out and the past few weeks have been among the bloodiest.

Highlighting the deteriorating situation on the ground, Syrian government forces pushed their way into Douma on the outskirts of Damascus on Saturday after weeks of siege and shelling. Fleeing residents spoke of corpses lying in the streets.

Britain’s ITV showed footage of clouds of black smoke over built-up areas and said warplanes had struck at targets in the suburb.

The army also attacked pro-opposition areas in Deir al-Zor, Homs, Idlib and the outskirts of Damascus, opposition activists said.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Assad and his close associates could not lead any transition. Accountability for war crimes must be part of such a process, he added in his speech to the meeting.

Hague called for the UN Security Council to start drafting a resolution next week setting out sanctions against Syria, a move that he noted put him at odds with Russia.

The foreign ministers of the council’s five permanent members – Russia, the United States, China, France and Britain – all attended along with Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Notably uninvited were Iran, Syria’s closest regional ally, and Saudi Arabia, a foe of both Damascus and Tehran and leading backer of the rebel forces opposing Assad. Nor was anyone from the Syrian government or opposition represented.