Archive for February 2012

Israel Edges Closer to Iran Attack

February 1, 2012

Israel Edges Closer to Iran Attack | US Opinion and Editorial Right Side News.

Israel (and the world) is edging closer, everyday, to an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

Completely disgusted with the Obama Regime’s “pretty please” approach to diplomacy with Iran, and frustrated with the US government’s “hovering” and insistence that Israel notify the US before any such attack, Israel is leaning forward and chomping at the bit to make the hit and make it ASAP.

Recent reports tell of an Israeli drone capable of reconnaissance, surveillance,  — and attack – that crashed on a test flight over Israel recently.  News reports of the incident resulted in tensions being raised one more notch.

The Israeli drone – a Heron TP – has a range of well over 4,000 miles.  Iran is roughly 1,000 miles from Israel.

The Heron is a BIG airplane.  It has a wingspan nearly equal to that of a 737 Airliner — approximately 85 feet. It can carry a payload of well over a ton.

According to a report in the Washington Times the Heron TP, which soars as high as 40,000 feet, would likely play a key role in an attack on Iran.  The plane can be utilized for recon and surveillance or “for firing rockets, and can be used in a variety of missions such as aerial refueling, jamming communications and relaying ground control in Israel to manned aircraft over a distant target.” (SOURCE)

The Heron TP is not a new aircraft.  It has been in service for at least two years.

While Israel feels pressure from Iran, it also must keep an eye over it’s should watching the “New” Egyptian government. Egypt’s recently elected parliament has said it has no intention of renewing the its long standing peace treaty with Israel. To Israel’s north, Syria is in flames with Assad’s government slaughtering its citizens in a near Syrian civil war.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Assad, Syria’s dictator, could stir up trouble with it’s southern neighbor, Israel, to redirect the attention of it’s people and take some of the pressure off Syria’s unpopular government.

Israel is in a world of trouble with threats from all sides — not including the so-called Palestinians, who are, in fact, Arabs. They are pushing the UN to carve a Palestinian state out of Israeli land.

The entire Middle East is in flames with a regional war almost certain in the immediate future.  Any “regional” war in the Middle East, will, of necessity, involve most of the industrialized nations of the west – including the US and the UK.  The Middle East is, of course, the source of much of the world’s oil and that oil must continue to flow even if the price is paid, as it almost certainly will be, in blood.

Here in America, we are confused at our government’s downsizing of the US military.  It makes no sense.  We are on the cusp of a war that has the potential to make the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq … and even Libya, look like Sunday School picnics.

I have a theory as to why Obama is pushing this draw down of the US military.  It is far-fetched, I grant you, but the Obama Regime is a past master at utterly stupid decision making, so this theory is as good as anyone else’s – at the moment.

Hypothetically, just suppose, the idea is to allow the Middle East to engage in a war with very little involvement by the US. It would most likely be a protracted war that would reduce the flow of oil to a trickle.  That would send oil prices and fuel prices for transportation, fuel to heat our homes, and the myriad other uses we have for petroleum products astronomically high.

Americans would, of necessity, be forced to cut back on oil consumption.  That would, supposedly, be good for the environment. Of course, our economy would collapse entirely and set the stage for a takeover of the American government by socialists who will provide a way to “restore” America — as a socialist country.

Far-fetched, you say?  Really?  Is it really THAT far-fetched?  Think about it:  These are leftists, Marxists, socialists, communists, democrats, anarchists, and yes, environmentalist.  We have come to believe that environmentalism is nothing more that a religion based on Marxism.

Remember:  Just because it is a conspiracy theory doesn’t mean there isn’t a conspiracy.

The US is about to be drawn into a near world war – and we are cutting back our military?   This entire scenario lends itself to all sorts of conspiracy theories.  I’m sure you have your own.

In the meantime, the Obama Regime is allowing our only friend in the region, Israel, to hang out there, twisting in the wind, feeling for all the world like a sacrificial lamb.

Yes, a war between Israel and Iran is on the agenda.  It could be months away, or it could be before sunrise tomorrow.And it could be a nuclear war.

Group urges credible U.S. military threat to Iran | Reuters

February 1, 2012

Group urges credible U.S. military threat to Iran | Reuters.

WASHINGTON | Wed Feb 1, 2012 12:27am EST

(Reuters) – The United States should deploy ships, step up covert activities and sharpen its rhetoric to make more credible the threat of a U.S. military strike to stop Iran’s nuclear program, a bipartisan group said on Wednesday.

Former U.S. politicians, generals and officials said in a report that the best chance of stopping Iran’s suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons was to make clear American willingness to use force, although it stopped short of advocating military action.

The report by a Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) task force of Democrats, Republicans and independents is to be formally issued on Wednesday and comes amid speculation about the possibility of an Israeli military strike against Iran.

There is little evidence to suggest that U.S. President Barack Obama has any significant interest in the possibility of a military strike against Iran, though his administration has repeatedly said that all options are on the table.

To a lesser degree there has also been debate about a U.S. attack, an idea advocated by former Pentagon defense planner Matthew Kroenig in his recent Foreign Affairs Magazine article, “Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option.”

The BPC report’s central thesis is that to persuade Iran to address questions about its nuclear program via negotiations, economic sanctions must be accompanied by a credible threat of military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“The United States needs to make clear that Iran faces a choice: it can either abandon its nuclear program through a negotiated arrangement or have its program destroyed militarily by the United States or Israel,” said the report, entitled “Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock.”

CREDIBLE THREAT

Tensions between Iran and the West have grown as the United States and its European allies have tightened economic sanctions by targeting the oil exports that drive the Iranian economy.

The United States, and many of its European allies, suspect that Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop the atomic bomb. Iran denies this, saying that its program is solely for civilian uses such as power generation.

The BPC is a nonprofit policy group founded by prominent Republicans and Democrats that seeks to promote policy-making that can draw support from both major U.S. political parties.

Among its specific recommendations, the report calls for:

– strengthening the United States “declaratory policy” to make clear its willingness to use force rather than permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons;

– intensifying covert activities by U.S. and foreign intelligence agencies to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program;

– bolstering the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman by deploying an additional carrier battle group and minesweepers off Iran, conducting broad military exercises in the region with allies, and prepositioning supplies for the possibility of military action against Iran;

– strengthening the ability of U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to ship oil out of the region without using the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close in retaliation for Western sanctions;

– and amplifying U.S. efforts to strengthen the militaries of countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates through arms sales.

Should these steps fail to dissuade Iran from its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons, the report urges the United States to consider a “quarantine” to block refined petroleum imports by Iran, which is heavily dependent on gasoline refined abroad.

As a last resort, the group asserts that the U.S. military has the ability to launch “an effective surgical strike against Iran’s nuclear program.”

DISENTANGLE THE U.S. MILITARY

Obama’s broader foreign policy has sought to disentangle the U.S. military from its commitments in the Muslim world. He decided to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq last year and aims to wind up the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan in 2014.

Obama opposed his predecessor George W. Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, a decision the Bush administration chiefly justified by citing intelligence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. No such weapons were subsequently found.

Without explicitly calling for an attack on Iran, the report says such a strike would include an air campaign of several weeks to target key military and nuclear installations, accompanied by the U.S. special forces on the ground.

“A military strike would delay Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capability but not eliminate it,” the report said.

“Still, policymakers need to consider whether delaying Iran’s program in the short term would allow Washington to take advantage of that space to stop Iran’s nuclear program altogether,” it added without explaining how this might happen.

“It is also possible that the delays and increased costs that a devastating strike would impose on Iran’s nuclear program might be followed by a different set of dynamics that would cause or compel the Iranian leadership to change course,” it said.

The report acknowledged a strike would carry many risks, including higher oil prices, possible Iranian retaliation against U.S. military installations, support of “terrorist” operations against U.S. interests and potential attacks on Iraq.

Former U.S. Senator Chuck Robb, a Virginia Democrat, told Reuters the group chose not to explicitly advocate military action in part because it did not want to turn what he described as a “reasoned, thoughtful approach into, ‘This is bombs away.'”

Having repeatedly said that a nuclear-armed Iran would be unacceptable to the United States, Robb said that to be unwilling to take military action would undercut U.S. credibility.

“Our credibility is very much on the line,” he said. “We believe that we have to be credible with respect to the kinetic option. We need to provide evidence that we are preparing to take that option if necessary.”

Will West help the Jews?

February 1, 2012

Will West help the Jews? – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: As Iran approaches nuclear bomb, will world step up and prevent second Holocaust?

Giulio Meotti

In 2007, French President Jacques Chirac suggested that an Iranian atomic weapon would not be used offensively. Now, many European “pragmatists” and American “rationalists”, sitting at their chancelleries and think-tanks, are trying to convince Israel that Iran would never use the bomb against the Jewish State.

Yet Israel should trust her enemies’ apocalyptic rants more than the futile experts’ opinion.

It’s the unique ideological atmosphere that makes the Iranian nuclear program more dangerous. Iran’s Ahmadinejad denies the Holocaust to advance the next one. Ayatollah Khomeini, prior to his death, declared that the Jews deserved “divine retribution” because they are the “embodiment of filth. Making his intentions clear, he stated: “We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land (Iran) burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.”

The “Mutually Assured Destruction” theory, which characterized Cold War deterrence, doesn’t work with a death cult regime. As the Nazis managed to destroy everything Jewish from the Pyrenees to Stalingrad, the Iranians went to Buenos Aires to kill Jews.

Pure hatred

Iranian hatred, like that of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, is pure and ritual. These Holocaust-enabler terrorists preach the god of martyrdom. Former Iranian president and Ayatollah, “the moderate” Hashemi Rafsanjani, rationalized the use of nuclear weapons against the Jews, declaring: “An atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.”

When Islamic leaders vow to wipe Israel off the map, Israel must believe them. To do otherwise would be a suicidal form of deafness to the lessons of the Holocaust.

Because of the Holocaust, Menachem Begin ordered the destruction of the nuclear bomb plant built by Saddam Hussein on the outskirts of Baghdad. Because of the Holocaust, Golda Meirordered Mossad operatives to kill Palestinian terrorists who slaughtered Jewish athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympic Games. Because of the Holocaust, Israel raided Tunisia to kill Abu Jihad, Yasser Arafat’s terrorist chief.

Iran wants to destroy Israel

Mohammad Hassan Rahimian, representative of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now says: “The Jew” – not the Zionist, note, but the Jew – “is the most obstinate enemy of the devout. And the main war will determine the destiny of mankind. . . .”

However, despite the evidence of Iranian madness and willingness to destroy Israel, the “experts” repeatedly argue that the Iranians are pragmatists who will never strike the Jews. But aren’t they the same experts who were wrong about Iran’s revolution in 1979, about Saddam Hussein, about the Islamists’ rise in Turkey and most recently about the Egyptian “spring?”

What will be left of Israel in case the Iranian priests launch a nuclear bomb on the coastal plain, where one-third of all world Jews live? Israel’s airports and industries are all there, and from 600 feet in the air you see it all, from Ashkelon to Haifa.

Just as Adolf Hitler sought to “liberate” humanity by gassing the Jews, the Ayatollahs believe they can “liberate” humanity by vaporizing Israel. Iran has the motivation to destroy Israel, and if it is allowed to gain nuclear weapons it will not need an excuse to do so. In that mindset, the “Jew Devils” must all suffer a violent death, down to the last one.

Now, the question is: Will the West help the Jews?

Arab League to UN: Syria stalling peace plan in order to put down uprising

February 1, 2012

Arab League to UN: Syria stalling peace plan in order to put down uprising – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Qatar tells UN Security Council that Syrian government failed to accept league’s plan of action to end the bloodshed, which resulted in the calls for imposing sanctions against Damascus.

By Shlomo Shamir, Natasha Mozgovaya, The Associated Press and DPA

The Arab League gave the UN Security Council in New York Tuesday a briefing on the deteriorating situation in Syria, where more than 5,400 people have been killed during 11 months of unrest pitting government security forces against civilian opponents.

The league’s Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr Al-Thani provided the council with a report on its monitoring mission Syria, which it said was welcomed by the Syrian people.

Arab League - Reuters - January 2012 Nabil Elaraby, Secretary General of the League of Arab States addresses the the United Nations Security Council as it meets at U.N. headquarters in New York January 31, 2012.
Photo by: Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the Security Council on Tuesday that U.N. action to end the violence in Syria would be different from the NATO-led efforts in Libya that resulted in the ouster of Muammar Gadhafi.

“I know that some members here may be concerned that the Security Council is headed toward another Libya,” she said. “That is a false analogy.”

Russia says it worries that a draft measure aimed at Syria, currently before the council, could lead to military action and regime change – just as an Arab-backed U.N. resolution led to NATO airstrikes in Libya.

“It is time for the international community to put aside our own differences and send a clear message of support to the people of Syria,” Clinton said.

The meeting culminates months of efforts to bring the Syrian conflict before the council, a move that has been resisted by Russia and China.

 

According to diplomatic sources Russia, China, and India are expected to oppose the sanctions on Syria.

These sources say that the upcoming elections in Russia are the reason for the Russian government’s position – Vladimir Putin is interested in presenting himself as independent and strong in foreign policy.

Al-Thani told the council that the Syrian government failed to accept the league’s plan of action to end the bloodshed, which resulted in the league’s calls for imposing sanctions against Damascus.

He accused Damascus of resorting to stalling tactics while trying to put down the popular unrest.

“Unfortunately, the Syrian government did not fully and immediately met its commitments (to the Arab League,” Al-Thani said.

The report provided to the council said Damascus resorted to “excessive use of force” to confront an “armed entity,” which it did not name.

In some zones, this armed entity reacted by attacking Syrian security forces and citizens, causing the government to respond with further violence,” the report said. “In the end, innocent citizens pay the price for those actions with life and limb.”

The Arab League observer mission was withdrawn after encountering difficulties in carrying out its tasks and also because of the lack of logistics. The league had demanded, but unsuccessfully, that Damascus protect civilian protesters, withdraw its military forces from cities and provide free access to the league’s monitors.

Mossad chief holds secret U.S. meetings on Iran nuclear threat, Senate panel reveals

February 1, 2012

Mossad chief holds secret U.S. meetings on Iran nuclear threat, Senate panel reveals – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

During a broadcasted meeting of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, CIA Director, panel Chairperson indicate they met Tamir Pardo in Washington this week; U.S. official: Iran willing to attack U.S. targets if threatened.

By Barak Ravid

Mossad chief Tamir Pardo held secret talks with top U.S. officials in recent days, cursory comments made during a public Senate hearing indicated on Tuesday.

Tamir Pardo Nov. 30, 2010 (Moti Milrod) Tamir Pardo
Photo by: Moti Milrod

The clandestine Washington visit was exposed during a hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which was participated by CIA Director David Petraeus, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and Dianne Feinstein, who chairs the Senate panel.

During the meeting, Feinstein asked Clapper whether or not Israel intended to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, with the top U.S. intelligence official answering that he would rather discuss the issue behind closed doors.

Feinstein then indicated that she had met Mossad chief Pardo earlier in the week in Washington, with Petraeus adding that he too met Pardo and cited what he called Israel’s growing concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

David Petraeus and James Clapper - AP - 31/1/2012 CIA Director David Petraeus listening at right as Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012.
Photo by: AP

The CIA chief also said that it was important to note that Israel considered a nuclear Iran as an existential threat.

The entire exchange was broadcasted live on American television.

Referring to the Iran’s nuclear progress, Clapper told the Senate panel that “Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so.”

“These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, if it so chooses,” Clapper added, saying that the U.S. judged “Iran would likely choose missile delivery as its preferred method of delivering a nuclear weapon.”

Clapper also indicated that the 2011 Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi envoy to the U.S. indicated that the Iranian leadership “changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime.”

“We are also concerned about Iranian plotting against U.S. or allied interests overseas. Iran’s willingness to sponsor future attacks in the United States or against our interests abroad probably will be shaped by Tehran’s evaluation of the costs it bears for the plot against the ambassador as well as Iranian leaders’ perceptions of U.S. threats against the regime,” Clapper added.

News of the Mossad chief’s reported Washington visit came as, also on Tuesday, President Shimon Peres said that Iran’s “evil” leadership mustn’t be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons capability.

Referring to Iran’s contentious nuclear program, the president called the issue “ours and the world’s central problem at this time, accusing Iran of attempting to achieve regional and “even global hegemony.”

“Nuclear weapons mustn’t be allowed to fall into the hands of Iran’s Ayatollah regime,” Peres said, calling Iran’s religious leadership the “most morally corrupt regime in the world.”

Hinting at the possibility of a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the president reiterated the Israeli stance, according to which “no option should be ruled out in our dealing with the Iranian danger. This is an existential threat.”

“It is the duty of the international community to prevent evil and nuclear [weapons] from coming together. That is the obligations of most of the leaders of the free world, one which they must meet,” Peres said.

Iran’s Khamenei criticizes U.S. ‘interference’ in Syria

February 1, 2012

Iran’s Khamenei criticizes U.S. ‘interference’ in Syria.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gestures before delivering a speech in Tehran Jan. 9, 2012. (REUTERS)

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gestures before delivering a speech in Tehran Jan. 9, 2012. (REUTERS)

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized “interference” by the United States in Syrian affairs on Tuesday, but said Tehran would welcome reforms in its closest Arab ally, the official IRNA news agency reported.

“Iran’s stance towards Syria is to support any reforms that benefit the people of this country and oppose the interference of America and its allies in Syrian domestic issues,” Khamenei said, according to IRNA.

Khamenei’s remarks came as the Arab League prepared to present a plan to the U.N. Security Council – backed by Washington, Paris and London – for Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad to give up powers.

Tehran has tempered its rhetoric on Syria as the crisis there has dragged on for 10 months. At first, it wholeheartedly supported Assad’s stance against public opposition, but lately it has been encouraging reforms to take account of popular grievances.

Assad says his government is committed to reform but is battling a foreign-backed insurgency by militants.

Khamenei criticized neighbors for allying themselves with Washington.

“When one looks at the developments in that country … America’s plans for Syria are evident and unfortunately some foreign and regional countries take part in America’s plans,” Khamenei said.

Assad’s alliance with Shi’ite Muslim, non-Arab Iran has occasionally put him at odds with other Arab countries, mostly ruled by Sunni Muslims.

The Arab League has proposed a peace plan which would involve Assad giving up powers to a deputy. Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby was taking that plan to the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday, backed by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the foreign ministers of France and Britain.

The United Nations said in December more than 5,000 people had been killed in Assad’s crackdown on protests. Syria says more than 2,000 security force members have been killed by militants.

Iran, U.N. end ‘constructive’ nuclear talks; U.S. says still chance for diplomacy

February 1, 2012

Iran, U.N. end ‘constructive’ nuclear talks; U.S. says still chance for diplomacy.

 

The West suspects that Iran’s uranium enrichment activities have military aims but Tehran says they are for peaceful electricity generation. (File photo)

The West suspects that Iran’s uranium enrichment activities have military aims but Tehran says they are for peaceful electricity generation. (File photo)

 

 

Iran completed a “constructive” round of talks with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog on Tuesday and further meetings are planned, the semi-official Fars news agency reported as U.S. intelligence chiefs said that sanctions and diplomacy still have a chance to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program.

“Talks between Iran and the visiting team of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were constructive and … the two sides agreed to continue the talks,” Fars quoted an unnamed source as saying.

The senior United Nations nuclear inspectors went to Tehran on Saturday for talks with Iranian officials on suspicions that the Islamic state is seeking atomic weapons, and to try to advance efforts to resolve the nuclear row, according to Reuters.

 

 

The West suspects that Iran’s uranium enrichment activities have military aims but Tehran says they are for peaceful electricity generation.

The Fars report said the date of future talks between Iran and IAEA had been set, but did not give details.

Western diplomats have often accused Iran of using offers of dialogue as a stalling tactic while it presses ahead with its nuclear program, and say they doubt whether Tehran will show the kind of concrete cooperation the IAEA wants.

Iran may offer limited concessions and transparency in an attempt to ease intensifying international pressure on the country, a major oil producer, they say. But that is unlikely to amount to the full cooperation that is required.

 

Technical and legal issues

 

Iran’s state-run Arabic language television channel al-Alam quoted an unnamed official as saying that only “technical and legal issues were discussed during the talks” on Tuesday, adding that the team had not visited any nuclear sites.

Some hardline Iranian students gathered in front of the country’s Atomic Energy Organization on Tuesday to protest against the IAEA inspectors’ visit, ISNA news agency reported.

Tension with the West rose this month when Washington and the EU imposed the toughest sanctions yet in a drive to force Tehran to provide more information on its nuclear program. The measures take direct aim at the ability of OPEC’s second biggest Oil exporter to sell its crude.

EU leaders agreed to implement their own embargo on Iranian oil by July and to freeze the assets of Iran’s central bank, joining the United States in a new round of measures aimed at deflecting Tehran’s nuclear development program.

Iran rejected EU sanctions on its oil as “psychological warfare” and threatened to cut off oil exports to European countries before July 1 when the EU sanctions would be fully enforced.

Iranian officials have also repeatedly shrugged off the impact of sanctions, saying the Islamic state has responded by becoming more self-reliant.

The EU accounted for 25 percent of Iranian crude oil sales in the third quarter of 2011. But analysts say the global oil market will not be overly disrupted if Iran’s parliament votes to turn off the oil tap for Europe.

Potentially more disruptive to the oil market and global security is the risk of Iran’s standoff with the West escalating into military conflict.

Iran has repeatedly said it could close the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane if sanctions prevent it from exporting crude, a move Washington said it would not tolerate.

 

Cost-benefit approach

 

Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence chiefs said Tuesday that sanctions and diplomacy still have a chance to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program as Tehran’s leaders have shown a rational “cost-benefit approach” in their calculations.

The top intelligence officials suggested that military conflict with Iran was not inevitable despite soaring tensions with Tehran and a war of nerves over the Strait of Hormuz.

“We judge Iran’s nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran,” James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told senators.

“Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran’s security, prestige, and influence, as well as the international political and security environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program,” Clapper told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

He said economic sanctions were taking a toll and described a worsening rift between the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The overriding goal of Iran’s leaders remained “regime survival” and it was too early to say how economic strains triggered by a wave of tougher sanctions would affect their decisions, CIA Director David Petraeus told the same hearing.

With a run on the Iranian currency, inflationary pressures and unemployment, the sanctions were “biting” more now than ever before, Petraeus said.

“I think what we have to see now is how does that play out, what is the level of popular discontent inside Iran, does that influence the strategic decision making of the supreme leader and the regime?” he said.

The comments by spy agency leaders echoed President Barack Obama’s assessment in his State of the Union address last week, when he said “a peaceful resolution” remains possible with Iran.

During the hearing, the head of the intelligence committee, Senator Dianne Feinstein, revealed that Israel’s spy chief Tamir Pardo had visited to Washington last week, amid speculation over a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Such trips are usually secret but Feinstein mentioned Pardo’s visit at the televised hearing as she discussed how Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

When asked about the likelihood of pre-emptive Israeli military action, Clapper replied that he would prefer to answer in a closed-door session but said sanctions might force Tehran to change course.

“Our hope is that the sanctions… will have the effect of inducing a change in Iranian policy toward their apparent pursuit of a nuclear capability,” he said.

“Obviously, this is a very sensitive issue right now.”

 

Clear sign

The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, told senators Iran had “the capability, we assess, to temporarily close” the channel but did not elaborate.

The hearing confirmed U.S. intelligence services have not changed their view since an assessment last year. The 16 spy agencies believe Iran’s leaders are divided over whether to build nuclear weapons and have yet to take a decision to press ahead.

Asked what would be a signal that Iran had decided to construct a bomb, Clapper said producing highly enriched weapons-grade uranium would be one clear sign.

In his written remarks, Clapper also said an alleged plot last year to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States showed Iran might be more willing now to carry out attacks on U.S. soil.

But Iran’s actions would be shaped by perceptions of U.S. power as well as the consequences of the exposure of the alleged plot, he said.

Clapper said while the punitive economic measures were squeezing Iran, the “economic difficulties probably will not jeopardize the regime, absent a sudden and sustained fall in oil prices or a sudden domestic crisis that disrupts oil exports.”

For the second straight day Tuesday, U.S. lawmakers also unveiled proposals for tighter sanctions on Iran over its suspect nuclear program.

House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Howard Berman and Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Robert Menendez, both Democrats, called for targeting Tehran’s energy sector and elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“With Iran pursuing a menacing nuclear program while thumbing its nose at the international community, Tehran must be further isolated,” Berman sai

Russia, China oppose ‘forced regime change’ in Syria; Lavrov warns of ‘bigger drama’

February 1, 2012

Russia, China oppose ‘forced regime change’ in Syria; Lavrov warns of ‘bigger drama’.

Syrian demonstrators protest against President Bashar al-Assad in Hula, near Homs. The banners read: Death rather than humiliation -Free Hula - Kill us instead of Baba Amro. (Reuters)

Syrian demonstrators protest against President Bashar al-Assad in Hula, near Homs. The banners read: Death rather than humiliation -Free Hula – Kill us instead of Baba Amro. (Reuters)

China and Russia have reiterated their opposition to the use of force to resolve the crisis in Syria, where escalating violence has killed thousands of civilians who oppose President Bashar al-Assad.

As many as 39 people have been killed by the fire of Syrian security forces across the country on Tuesday, Al Arabiya reported, citing Syrian activists.

Arab and Western states urged the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday at act swiftly on a resolution calling for Assad to step aside.

The United States strongly backed the call by the Arab League and Qatar for “rapid and decisive action,” which came as Assad’s government forces reasserted control of Damascus suburbs after beating back rebels at the gates of the capital.

“China is firmly opposed to the use of force to solve the Syrian problem and resolutely opposes pushing for forced regime change in Syria, as it violates the United Nations Charter and the basic norms guiding the practice of international relations,” Xinhua quoted Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Li Baodong as saying to the Security Council.

The brief news report from Xinhua did not give other details.

China, along with Russia, has resisted a Western push for a Security Council resolution condemning the Syrian government’s 10-month crackdown on pro-reform protests.

No support for any action

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said they would not support any action that would be imposed on Syria and would avoid taking sides in an internal conflict, according to Reuters.

“The international community unfortunately did take sides in Libya and we would never allow the Security Council to authorize anything similar to what happened in Libya,” Lavrov said in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

“Yes, we condemn strongly the use of force by government forces against civilians, but we can condemn in the same strong way the activities of the armed extremist groups who attack government positions, who attack administration in various provinces of Syria, who attack a police station and who terrorize people telling them not to come to jobs, not to come to hospitals, not to come to shops.”

China and Russia have prevented the Security Council from approving any military intervention in Syria and vetoed a Western-backed resolution against Assad’s government.

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil al-Araby called on the council to take “rapid and decisive action” by approving the resolution. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani warned that Syria’s “killing machine is still at work.”

Syrian U.N. Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari rejected the suggestion his government was responsible for the crisis, and accused Western powers of dreaming of “the return of colonialism and hegemony” in the Middle East.

Military intervention

Al-Araby said Arab nations wanted to avoid foreign military intervention in the Syrian crisis.

“We are not calling for a military intervention,” Sheikh Hamad said. “We are advocating the exertion of a concrete economic pressure so that the Syrian regime might realize that it is imperative to meet the demands of its people.”

Lavrov said the policy of isolation and seeking regime change risked igniting a “much bigger drama” in the Middle East.

“The people who are obsessed with removing regimes in the region, they should be really thinking about the broader picture. And I’m afraid that if this vigor to change regimes persists, we are going to witness a very bad situation much, much, much broader than just Syria, Libya, Egypt or any other single country.”

Beijing, which generally avoids taking action in the domestic affairs of other nations, has played a low-key role in the turmoil that has swept the Middle East and North Africa.

But it has also moved swiftly to normalize ties with governments that have been overthrown by popular revolts, such as in Libya.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, backed by her French and British counterparts as well as Qatar’s prime minister, led the charge for a tough U.N. resolution that would call on Assad to end the bloodshed and hand over power, according to AFP.

“We all know that change is coming to Syria. Despite its ruthless tactics, the Assad regime’s reign of terror will end,” Clinton told the U.N. Security Council.

“The question for us is: how many more innocent civilians will die before this country is able to move forward?”

U.S. officials said that Clinton tried unsuccessfully for two days to speak to Lavrov. Clinton dismissed suggestions that Lavrov snubbed her, saying that it was difficult to reach him in distant Australia.

The draft resolution, which was introduced by Arab League member Morocco, calls for the formation of a unity government leading to “transparent and free elections.”

It stresses that there will be no foreign military intervention in Syria as there was in Libya, helping to topple Muammar Qaddafi.

Fall of Assad inevitable

In Washington, U.S. intelligence chief James Clapper said the fall of the Assad regime was in any case inevitable.

“I do not see how he can sustain his rule of Syria,” Clapper told senators. “I personally believe it’s a question of time but that’s the issue, it could be a long time.”

The opposition Syrian National Council meanwhile deplored the international community’s lack of “swift action” to protect civilians “by all necessary means,” in a statement on Facebook.

On Monday alone, almost 100 people, including 55 civilians, were killed during a regime assault on the flashpoint city of Homs, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The rebel Free Syrian Army said half of the country was now effectively a no-go zone for the security forces.

“Fifty percent of Syrian territory is no longer under the control of the regime,” its Turkey-based commander Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad told AFP.

He said the morale of government troops was extremely low. “That’s why they are bombing indiscriminately, killing men, women and children,” he said.

CIA director David Petraeus told senators in Washington that Assad now faced challenges in Damascus and Aleppo, two cities that had been seen as insulated from the unrest.

“I think it has shown indeed how substantial the opposition to the regime is and how it is in fact growing and how increasing areas are becoming beyond the reach of the regime security forces,” Petraeus said.

Assad may start regional war if UN tells him to step down – Gulf sources

February 1, 2012

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 31, 2012, 7:23 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Syrian officers visit Russian aircraft carrier in Tartus port

In confidential conversations with his advisers, Syrian President Bashar Assad is reported by Persian Gulf sources Tuesday, Jan. 31 to have threatened to start up armed hostilities in the region if the UN Security Council Tuesday night endorses the Arab League proposal for him to step down and hand power to his deputy.

Those sources told debkafile that the heads of the Syrian armed forces and intelligence have been given their orders and some units are on the ready. Other Middle East sources reported that the Lebanese Hizballah has also shown signs of military preparations in the last few hours. And the Russian flotilla berthed at the Syrian port of Tartus, led by the Admiral Kutznetsov aircraft carrier, also appears to be on the alert for ructions in the wake of the Security Council Syria session.

During the day, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov warned that pushing the Arab League’s UN resolution was “the path to civil war.” Our Moscow sources report that top-level discussions are still going back and forth in the Kremlin over a final decision on a veto.
debkafile reports that the military flurry in advance of the critical Security Council session included US naval movements. Sunday, Jan. 29, the nuclear submarine USS Annapolis, escorted by the guided missile destroyer USS Momsen sailed through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea. This looked like a Washington warning for Tehran to keep its military fingers out of Syria if the confrontation there escalates.

It was not the first time Assad has threatened Syria’s neighbors. On Aug. 9, 2011, four months into his savage crackdown against protesters, he warned Turkey that, six hours after the first shot was fired against Syria, he would “destroy Tel Aviv and set the entire Middle East on fire.”

That was his answer to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu when he came to Damascus with a demand from his and other NATO governments that the Syrian ruler stop the slaughter.  .

Davutoglu urged Assad to take a look at Libya and try to understand that if he carried on, he might be in for the same fate as Muammar Qaddafi – a strong hint at military intervention by NATO, including Turkey.
Earlier still on May 10, one of Assad’s close kinsmen, the international tycoon Rami Makhlouf, warned: “If there is no stability in Syria, there will be none in Israel. No one can be sure what will happens after that. God help us if anything befalls this regime.”