WarSclerotic

The Associated Press: Israel: military action may be needed against Iran.

HERZLIYA, Israel (AP) — Israel’s defense minister says there is growing international awareness that military action against Iran’s nuclear program will have to be considered.

Ehud Barak told a security conference on Thursday that he senses a change in international thinking. He says world leaders are increasingly realizing that if sanctions don’t stop Iran’s nuclear program, “there will be a need to consider action.”

Israel, like the West, believes Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Israel has been a leading voice in calls to curb the Iranian program. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful.

Israel has repeatedly hinted it is ready to attack Iran, saying that while it prefers a diplomatic solution, “all options are on the table.”

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.

HERZLIYA, Israel (AP) — Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons installations are vulnerable to possible military strikes, Israel’s vice premier warned Thursday, suggesting that underground bunkers don’t offer sufficient protection.

The comments by Moshe Yaalon contradicted an assessment shared by foreign experts and Israeli defense officials that it would be difficult to strike sensitive Iranian nuclear targets, as they are being built underground.

The international community has grown increasingly worried that Israel could be preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear program. Yaalon, who also serves as strategic affairs minister, gave no indication that Israel is close to a decision on an attack.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently said even the most sophisticated U.S. bunker-buster bombs aren’t powerful enough to penetrate all of Iran’s defenses.

Yaalon, a former military chief of staff, suggested Thursday that forces guarding the nuclear installations could be targeted. Referring to the debate over bunker-buster bombs, he said that “at the end of the day it’s possible to strike all the installations.”

At an academic conference, Yaalon and Israel’s chief of military intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, presented details about Iran’s weapons programs.

Yaalon said Iran is trying to develop missiles that could target the United States with a range of 6,250 miles (10,000 kilometers). The vice premier said this was discovered in the aftermath of a mysterious explosion several months ago at what he described as a missile research and development site in Iran. The cause of the blast remains unknown, and Yaalon did not elaborate.

Iran insists the blast was accidental, but speculation over sabotage remains strong. The remarks by Yaalon appeared to be the first public suggestion that the missile site was the scene of highly advanced projects and could boost suspicions that outside forces played a role in the explosion.

Israel has been a leading voice in the international calls to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran denies it’s trying to develop nuclear weapons, insisting it seeks nuclear power for nonmilitary uses.

Kochavi told the conference that Iran has already produced enough enriched uranium to eventually make four nuclear bombs. Such material would serve as the basis for further enrichment, up to weapons grade.

Israeli media quoted Kochavi as saying that once Iran moves into the so-called “breakout stage” and decides to produce weapons grade uranium, it would need about a year to make a rudimentary bomb and an additional year or two to craft a nuclear warhead.

“Iran keeps advancing its capabilities, keeps developing its very ambitious nuclear program, at the basis of which is to get nuclear power,” Kochavi said.

An Iranian counterstrike at Israel is seen as likely if Tehran’s nuclear installations are attacked.

Kochavi said Israel’s enemies have about 200,000 rockets and missiles that could strike Israel. Most have a range of about 25 miles (40 kilometers), but several thousand have a range of several hundred miles (kilometers), he said.

Iranian proxies in the region, mainly Gaza’s Islamic militant Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah, have fired thousands of rockets into Israel and have been building up their arsenals in recent years.

Associated Press writer Brian Murphy in Dubai contributed reporting.

Israel could launch military strike on Iran ‘within nine months’ – Telegraph.

Israel could launch an air strike against Iran within nine months in a bid to slow Tehran’s progress towards building a nuclear weapon, according to a former senior White House aide.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Photo: EPA/OLIVER WEIKEN

By Alex Spillius

6:59PM GMT 02 Feb 2012

Mr Ross, who left the US national security council in November but is still consulted by the White House, told the Daily Telegraph:

“The Israelis view this [Iranian threat] in existential terms. If the Israelis feel this is an existential threat it doesn’t matter what anybody says to them. They could do it unilaterally.”

He added: “Whatever the American point of view Israel is a sovereign state and will make its own decisions. We certainly don’t control them.”

Speculation has mounted inside Israel that Mr Netanyahu could give the order for a strike against Iranian facilities as early as the summer, and so risk fierce retaliation by Iran or terror groups in its pay such as Hezbollah and Hamas against Israeli, US and possibly other Western targets.

Mr Ross, who maintains high level contacts with Israel, said that while the US is keen to allow time for new, tougher sanctions on Iran to force the Islamist regime into compromise, Israel is operating on a shorter time frame given Tehran’s long-standing hostility to the Jewish state’s existence.

“They talk about nine to 12 months. There is a time frame from their end,” he said.

Mr Netanyahu’s hand could be stayed if confidence-building measures are adopted by the Iranians. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have just completed a visit to discuss what the watchdog has called “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear programme.

The Iranian foreign minister has also indicated a willingness to meet international powers, though his country maintains that its nuclear programme is designed purely for civilian purposes.

Tensions have risen markedly in recent months, with unexplained explosions at missile research centres and accusations from Iran that Israel and the US are assassinating its nuclear scientists.

Mr Obama and other top officials have reportedly privately sought assurances from Israeli leaders that they won’t take military action against Iran, only to be met with noncommittal responses. The White House is well aware that Mr Netanyahu has previously been unafraid of snubbing the US president.

The Pentagon is so concerned about the possibility of an Israeli bombing raid that it is preparing for a number of possible responses, including assaults by pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq against the US embassy in Baghdad.

Supported by his defence minister Ehud Barak, Mr Netanyahu fears that Tehran is entering what Israeli officials call the “immunity zone”, at which point Iran’s nuclear facilities would be immune, or almost immune, to an air strike.

Iran recently admitted that it had begun enriching uranium at an underground site near the holy city of Qom that some Israeli officials believe could be switched to weapons-grade level in less than 12 months. This crossed one of Israel’s “red lines” that would precipitate an air raid on Iranian facilities, such as it launched successfully on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1982.

“The Israelis feel there is a point past which their own use of force loses its effectiveness, where if they acted they would buy such little time it wouldn’t be worth it,” said Mr Ross, who is regarded by his critics as too close to Israel to be impartial.

Mr Netanyahu is desperate to preserve Israel’s status as the only nuclear power in the Middle East, but the Israeli establishment is divided about military action.

Many senior generals and intelligence officials either think that Iran is more than a year away from building a nuclear weapon or question whether setting the programme back by a couple of years, which is the limit of its ambitions, is worth the risk of retaliation and possible destabilisation in the Middle East.

Despite expressing concern about Iran’s intentions, Gen Kochavi suggested it could take three years before Tehran was actually capable of firing a nuclear warhead.

He stressed that Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has not yet issued the command to achieve a first nuclear explosive device, despite allowing significant steps in that direction.

International sanctions, which included Britain severing all ties with Iranian banks, were already biting and could yet force a “strategic shift” by Tehran, he said.

Barak: If Iran sanctions don’t work, military action must be considered – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Defense minister says confronting a nuclear Iran would be much more dangerous, and would cost many more lives, than confronting the country today.

By Haaretz

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Thursday that if sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program do not prove effective, then military action against the Islamic Republic must be considered.

“Today, unlike in the past, there is widespread international belief that it is vital to prevent Iran from becoming ‘nuclear’ and that no option should be taken off the table,” Barak said at the closing day of the Herzliya Conference.

	Defense Minister Ehud Barak gestures as he speaks during a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Friday, Jan. 27, 2012.
	Photo by: AP

“Should sanctions fail to stop Iran’s nuclear program, there will be a need to consider taking action,” he said.

He noted that many analysts believe that confronting a nuclear Iran will be much more complicated and dangerous, and will cost many more lives, than taking action today.
“Whoever says ‘later’, could find that it is too late,” he stressed.

Barak added that Israel’s challenge is to continue aiding the international community to work toward halting Iran’s nuclear program, “without taking any option off the table.”

Earlier Thursday, Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya’alon said that all of Iran’s nuclear facilities are vulnerable to a military strike, adding that the specter of a nuclear Iran would be a “nightmare to the free world.”

Ya’alon also indicated that an explosion which virtually destroyed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile base near Tehran late last year targeted a system that was “preparing to produce a missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, thus threatening the United States.”

Is Israel preparing to attack Iran? – The Washington Post.

By David Ignatius, Thursday, February 2, 5:42 PM

BRUSSELS

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has a lot on his mind these days, from cutting the defense budget to managing the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. But his biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran militarily over the next few months.

Panetta believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the U.S. could then stop them militarily.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want to leave the fate of Israel dependent on American action, which would be triggered by intelligence that Iran is building a bomb, which it hasn’t done yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak may have signaled the prospect of an Israeli attack soon when he asked last month to postpone a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise that would culminate in a live-fire phase in May. Barak apologized that Israel couldn’t devote the resources to the annual exercise this spring.

President Obama and Panetta are said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold. But the White House hasn’t yet decided precisely how the United States would respond if the Israelis do attack.

The Obama administration is conducting intense discussions about what an Israeli attack would mean for the United States: whether Iran would target U.S. ships in the region or try to close the Strait of Hormuz, and what effect the conflict and a likely spike in oil prices would have on the fragile global economy.

The administration appears to favor a policy of staying out of the conflict, unless Iran hits U.S. assets, which would trigger a strong U.S. response.

This U.S. policy — signaling that Israel is acting on its own — might open a breach like the one in 1956, when President Eisenhower condemned an Israeli-European attack on the Suez Canal. Complicating matters is the 2012 presidential campaign, which has Republicans candidates clamoring for stronger U.S. support of Israel.

Administration officials caution that Tehran shouldn’t misunderstand: The United States has a 60-year commitment to Israeli security, and if Israel’s population centers were hit, the United States could feel obligated to come to Israel’s defense.

Israelis are said to believe that a military strike could be limited and contained. They would bomb the uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and other targets; an attack on the buried enrichment facility at Qom would be harder from the air. Iranians would retaliate, but Israelis doubt the action would be an overwhelming barrage, with rockets from Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. One Israeli estimate is that the Jewish state might have to absorb 500 casualties.

Israelis point to Syria’s lack of response to an Israeli attack on a nuclear reactor there in 2007. Iranians might show similar restraint, because of fear the regime would be endangered by all-out war. Some Israelis have also likened a strike on Iran to the 1976 hostage-rescue raid on Entebbe, Uganda, which was followed by a change of regime in that country.

Israeli leaders are said to accept, and even welcome, the prospect of going it alone and demonstrating their resolve at a time when their security is undermined by the “Arab Spring.”

“You stay to the side, and let us do it,” one Israel official is said to have advised the United States. A “short-war” scenario assumes five days or so of limited Israeli strikes, followed by a U.N.-brokered cease-fire. Israelis are said to recognize that damage to the nuclear program might be modest, requiring another strike in a few years.

U.S. officials see two possible ways to dissuade the Israelis from such an attack: Tehran could finally open serious negotiations for a formula to verifiably guarantee that its nuclear program will remain a civilian one; or the United States could step up its covert actions to degrade the program so much that Israelis would decide military action wasn’t necessary.

U.S. officials don’t think that Netanyahu has made a final decision to attack, and they note that top Israeli intelligence officials remain skeptical of the project. But senior Americans doubt the Israelis are bluffing. They’re worrying about the guns of spring — and the unintended consequences.

BBC News – UN Syria text drops call for Assad power handover.

(The “weasel factor” reigns supreme… – JW )

Diplomats at the UN Security Council have watered down a resolution on Syria in an apparent attempt to overcome Russian objections to an earlier draft.

The revised text – seen by the BBC – drops the call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to hand over powers to his deputy – the key part of a peace plan proposed by the Arab League.

It also removes a reference to stopping the flow of arms to Syria.

The Russians argued that the Arab plan imposed regime change.

Ambassadors began intense negotiations on Wednesday, after a high-level meeting urging the Council to back an Arab plan to end the crisis.

Diplomatic sources say Western states appear to support the new text – drawn up by Morocco – on condition that it gets a yes vote from Russia, rather than an abstention, according to the BBC’s Barbara Plett at the UN headquarters in New York.

So far the Russians have been non-committal, she says.

Human rights groups and activists say more than 7,000 people have been killed by Syrian security forces since the uprising began in March.

Security forces closed public squares and set up checkpoints on Thursday in the flashpoint central city of Hama.

It came after protesters splashed red paint in the streets to mark 30 years since an uprising there was crushed by Mr Assad’s father Hafez, with the deaths of at least 10,000 people.

“They want to kill the memory and they do not want us to remember,” said an activist in the city, where residents said tanks blocked main squares to prevent demonstrations.

“But we will not accept it,” the activist told Reuters news agency.

Mr Assad’s forces have been fighting back against rebels – in recent days claiming back suburbs of Damascus and areas north-west of the capital.

‘Brutal regime’

On Wednesday, diplomats said discussions had been positive, with US Ambassador Susan Rice saying talks had been conducted in a “constructive and roll-up-your-sleeves manner”.

The Arab League suspended its monitoring mission last month after it failed to stop the violence

However, she also admitted that the call for Mr Assad to hand over power to his deputy remained “one of the more difficult issues”.

Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin also said progress had been made, saying: “I think we have a much better understanding of what we need to do to reach consensus.”

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had earlier said Council members must decide whether they supported the Syrian people or “a brutal, dictatorial regime”.

At least 43 people were killed by security forces on Wednesday, according to one activist group.

The UN stopped estimating the death toll in Syria after it passed 5,400 in January, saying it was too difficult to confirm.

The government says at least 2,000 members of the security forces have been killed combating “armed gangs and terrorists”.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 2, 2012, 3:21 PM (GMT+02:00)

Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi

Iran has completed the development of a nuclear weapon and awaits nothing more than a sign from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to start assembling its first nuclear bomb, said Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi on Thursday, February 2. Assembling a bomb would take up to a year, Kochavi estimated. With 100 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent grade and another 4 tons of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent already in stock, Iran would need another two years to make four nuclear bombs.
Therefore, by the end of 2012 or early 2013 Iran may have a single nuclear bomb, but by 2015 the figure would jump to four or five.

The officer was essentially amplifying the words of his predecessor, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, who said on Jan. 26 that as long ago as 2007 or 2008, Iran had already passed the point of no return in developing nuclear weapons.  Kochavi agreed with him that none of the sanctions imposed thus far had persuaded Iran to slow down, least of all shut down, its drive for a nuclear weapon.

His comments coincided with the findings published Thursday by the Enterprise Institute, an American think tank, that Iran would be able to manufacture a 15-kiloton nuclear bomb as soon as August of this year, just seven months from now.

Also Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon disclosed that the big blast at the Iranian missile base near Tehran last November blew up a new missile system with a range of 10,000 kilometers, capable of targeting the United States.
Commenting on Iran’s underground bunkers for nuclear facilities, the minister stressed that any facility built by man can be destroyed by man. “Speaking as a former chief of staff, I say none of Iran’s installations are immune to attack,” he said.

Major General Kochavi went on to say that if Iran had attained a nuclear capability, this meant that the US and Israel had failed to pre-empt this outcome.

Turning to another threat, the military intelligence chief painted a grim picture of 200,000 rockets and missiles of assorted types pointing at Israel.

Wednesday, February 1, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz stressed that there is no longer any point on the Israeli map that is outside the range of enemy missiles.
According to Gen. Kochavi, Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas are dispersing their missiles and rockets to sites deep inland and integrated in urban environments to minimize their vulnerability to IDF attack. He warned “the enemy” had prepared increasing numbers of its missiles for “depth strikes against Israeli population centers, their warheads more lethal than ever.”

“Every tenth residential house in Lebanon,” he said, “harbors a missile arsenal or launching position. Their sheer volume has reached a strategic dimension with which Israel will have to deal.”

Tuesday, Jan. 31, the IDF practiced mobilizing an armored division under war conditions, debkafile‘s military sources report. The drill simulated moving the troops to conscription bases, arming them with equipment and weapons and getting them to battle lines – all under the heavy missile bombardment of military facilities, national highways and railway lines.
The various assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities have faced serious credibility problems over the years, debkafile‘s intelligence sources note.

Today, thanks to Kochavi and Yadlin, we know that the US National Intelligence Estimate of 2007 accepted by the Bush administration was wrong. Its main finding was that Iran had discontinued its military nuclear program in 2003.  For five years, Western intelligence officials have given out misleading estimates to save their governments having to pursue direct action for preempting a nuclear Iran.
One school of thought claimed that Iran would not build a bomb until it had the resources to create an arsenal; another, that Tehran lacked the technology for weaponizing enriched uranium. Does the latest evaluation that the manufacture of a bomb awaits the decision of one man, the Iranian Supreme Ruler, fall into the same category as the others? Or is it another gambit to fend off a military strike against Iran for five more years?

How do the US and Israel know for sure that Khamenei has not given the order and that Iranian teams are not already busy assembling a bomb in some bunker?

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has maintained more than once that America has the resources for finding out about a decision by the Supreme Leader, but no American or Israeli intelligence officer can endorse this certainty.

It should be remembered, debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources note, that when Western intelligence announced the discovery of the Fordo underground facility near Qom in mid-2009, construction had begun undiscovered at least eighteen months earlier.

US encouraged to up the military ante against Iran – CNN Security Clearance – CNN.com Blogs.

By Pam Benson

The chairman of the House intelligence committee tells CNN the U.S. military needs to do more to “scare” Iran away from pursuing nuclear weapons.

Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Michigan, made the comment in response to a question about a new report by the Bipartisan Policy Center that says the United States must put more teeth into its threat to use military power to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In an interview with CNN, Rogers said more needs to be done: “I’m not saying we ought to bomb Iran, but you almost have to scare them, you have to frighten them to get to the right place.”

The report from the Washington think tank recommended the United States should undertake visible, credible military preparations to go along with more intense sanctions and diplomatic efforts. The military activities could include naval deployments, military exercises and pre-positioning supplies in the region.

The report also said the United States should give credibility to the Israeli military threat against Iran by selling Israel two to three KC-135 aerial refueling tankers and 200 GRU-31 bunker-buster munitions.

In order to stop Iran’s nuclear clock, the report said, the United States “needs to make clear that Iran faces a choice: it can either abandon its nuclear program through a negotiated arrangement or have its program destroyed militarily, by the United States.”

Former Sen. Chuck Robb, who co-chaired the task force that wrote the report, said the group is advocating neither war nor a military strike at the moment, but believes the U.S. will only be effective if it takes credible steps to let Iran know it is serious.
“(To) the extent we are more credible, the chances for using force goes down,” Robb said.

However, Pentagon spokesman Capt. John Kirby said the U.S. is satisfied with its current military posture. He said Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “has made it clear that he is comfortable with the military capabilities we have and operate in the region.”

However, Kirby said, “the U.S. military must and will be ready to provide the president options should those options be desirable.”

Robb stressed any sale of arms to Israel is not meant to encourage the Israelis to strike.

“What we’re doing is giving them more credibility, which clearly will be factored into any decision that Iran may make with respect to whether they can get away with, or survive without much damage, a strike that might be engaged in by Israeli forces,” Robb said.

But a U.S. government official who supports giving Israel the tools it needs to defend itself, cautioned, “The one catch in this is, you have to be careful that it doesn’t look like the United States is prepping Israel to do this by itself. An Israel attack by itself causes a huge problem,” the official said, potentially inflaming the Middle East and forcing U.S. allies in the region to oppose an attack.

Iran dominated a Senate intelligence committee hearing Tuesday on worldwide threats. Lawmakers voiced worries that any effort to stop Iran’s nuclear program could be too little, too late, and some said something needed to be done urgently to prevent Iran from crossing the threshold to possessing nuclear weapons.

Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, D-California, warned that “2012 will be a critical year for convincing or preventing Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon.”

Sen. Dan Coats, R-Indiana, said the time to act is now. But, he said, after a decade of unsuccessful efforts to stop Iran’s nuclear program, he fears Iran will get a nuclear weapon, much as North Korea did.

Israeli-made armor saves US soldiers’ lives – Israel News, Ynetnews.

US ambassador to Israel visits Plasan factory to learn about advanced armor technologies used to protect American soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan. ‘These were critical in saving lives of thousands,’ he asserts

Itamar Eichner

US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro visted Kibbutz Sasa in northern Galilee, home to Plasan factory, in late January to learn about the company’s advanced armor technologies, which have saved countless American soldiers’ lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel‘s Plasan factory manufactures armor which is used in the majority of the US military’s armored vehicles.

“I just recently visited Kibbutz Sasa, the home of Plasan,” Shapiro said at the IDC Herzliya Conferenceon Wednesday. “Plasan met the call to help protect American soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan when they were able to surge the production of up-armor kits for Humvees and for mine-resistant vehicles. These armor kits were critical in saving the lives of thousands of US soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen when they faced the threat of IEDs and RPG attacks.”

 During his visit to the kibbutz, the ambassador got a chance to review many thank you letters sent to Plasan officials by American parents who said it was thanks to the Israeli armor that their sons’ lives were saved.

“It’s no exaggeration to say that thousands of American service members’ lives have been saved by the work and the technology that’s been developed here,” Shapiro noted afterwards.

According to a statement by the US Embassy in Tel Aviv, while visiting Kibbutz Sasa, “The Ambassador saw the full range of products, from reactive armor, to purpose built vehicles, to body armor.”

Plasan has delivered more than 8,000 armor kits to US units on active duty, according to US Embassy in Tel Aviv. “Israel is a world leader in armor technology and the Ambassador expressed his gratitude for the dedication to quality expressed at Plasan,” the statement read. 

“Israel is a strategic asset and partner to the United States. What makes us allies is the unique combination of common values and common interests. We don’t have any better partner in the Middle East, a strategically critical and unstable part of the world,” Shapiro remarked at the IDC Herzliya Conference.

He went on to say, “When you look at the burgeoning economic relationship we have, particularly in the high-tech sector, if we didn’t have the start-up nation here in Israel, we would have to invent it – for the sake of our own economy.

“Virtually every major US technology company has chosen to base major research and development centers here in Israel to draw on the talent and innovation of the Israeli work force and start-up culture.”

Dana Lanzer contributed to this report

Some 200,000 missiles aimed consistently at Israel, top IDF officer says – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Head of military intelligence Aviv Kochavi reiterates army estimates that Iran could further enrich that uranium it already has to create 4 atomic bombs.

By Amos Harel 

About 200,000 missiles are aimed at Israel at any given time, a top Israel Defense Forces officer said on Thursday, adding that Iran’s ability to obtain nuclear weapons was solely dependent on the will of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The remarks by Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi came after IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said on Wednesday that the threats facing Israel have increased and intensified in recent years due to regional instability.

Speaking to the Herzliya Conference, Gantz said that Iran’s nuclear program is a “global problem and a regional problem,” adding that Tehran’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons must continue to be disrupted.

On Thursday, Kochavi, speaking at the opening session of the Herzliya Conference’s closing day, spoke of the growing threats Israel was facing: “a more hostile, more Islamic, more sensitive Middle East, one more attune to public sentiment, less controlled by the regimes, and less susceptible to international influence.”

The chief of military intelligence then indicated that about 200,000 missiles were aimed at Israel at any given time, adding, however, that “Israel’s military deterrence is intact.”

Referring to Israel’s concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Kochavi presented a relatively tame estimation of a possible timeline en route to an Iranian atomic bomb, saying that the project depended more on the will of Iran’s Supreme Leader than on any technological advancement.

“If Khamenei issues a command to achieve a first nuclear explosive device, we estimate it would take another year before that’s achieved,” the top IDF official said, adding that “if he asks to translate that ability to obtain a nuclear warhead, that would take another year or two.”

Kochavi also reiterated the IDF estimate that Iran is in possession of more than 4 tons of low-grade enriched uranium as well as almost 100 kilograms of uranium enriched at 20%.

“If those are enriched more, to a 90% level, that would be enough for 4 atomic bombs,” the IDF officer said.

The military intelligence chief added that the sanctions on Iran “are taking their toll. There’s 16% unemployment, 24% annual inflation, and practically no growth,” he said adding that “at this point the pressure isn’t leading Iran to a strategic shift.”

However, Kochavi added that “there’s a potential, with greater pressure, that the regime, interested first and foremost in its own survival, would reconsider its position.”

Speaking at the Herzliya conference on Tuesday, President Shimon Peres also referred to the Iranian nuclear threat, saying that Tehran’s “evil” leaders cannot be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.

“It is the duty of the international community to prevent evil and nuclear [weapons] from coming together. That is the obligations of most of the leaders of the free world, one which they must meet,” Peres said.

Vice PM: Military strike can hit all of Iran’s nuclear facilities – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Speaking at Herzliya Conference, Moshe Ya’alon calls the possibility of a nuclear Iran a ‘nightmare to the free world,’ says explosion at Iranian missile base targeted missile system that would have threatened the U.S.

By Barak Ravid

All of Iran’s nuclear faculties are vulnerable to a military strike, Vice Prime Minister and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon said on Thursday, calling the potential of a nuclear Iran a “nightmare to the free world.”

At the closing day of the Herzliya Conference, Ya’alon referred to the many tools at the international community’s disposal that could serve to slow down or stop Iran’s advancement toward nuclear weapons capability: international pressure, economic sanctions, support of Iranian opposition, and military actions.

	An aerial photograph showing Iran’s uranium conversion facility just outside the city of Isfahan, March 30, 2005.
	Photo by: AP

Speaking of the possibility of a military strike of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the vice PM said that “the West has the ability to strike, but as long as Iran isn’t convinced that there’s a determination to follow through with it, they’ll continue with their manipulations.”

“The Iranians believe that a determination isn’t still there, both in regards to military action and in regards to sanctions,” Ya’alon said, adding that “any facility protected by humans can be infiltrated by humans. It’s possible to strike all Iran’s facilities, and I say that out of my experience as IDF chief of staff.”

The vice PM’s comments seem to counter reported remarks by U.S. defense officials quoted last week by the Wall Street Journal, according to which the Pentagon was not in possession of conventional arms strong enough to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Ya’alon reiterated the Israeli stance that a nuclear Iran was a global threat, saying that “if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it would be a nightmare for the free world, a nightmare for Arab states…and of course a threat to the State of Israel.”

	Moshe Ya’alon at Herzliya Conference, Feb. 2, 2012.
	Photo by: Tal Nissim

“We’ll see a more intense undermining of regional regimes and the acceleration of terror attacks against those regimes, as well as against Israel and western states, with the United States at the forefront,” Ya’alon said.

The former IDF chief also indicated that an explosion which virtually destroyed an Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base near Tehran late last year targeted a system “getting ready to produce a missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, thus threatening the United States.”

“The Iranian threat is not a case of Iran Vs. Israel. Israel has never declared war on Iran, but the Khomeinistic regime has declared total war on the States of Israel’s very existence,” Ya’alon added, saying that Iran was interested in repelling a perceived western hegemony around the world and not just in the Middle East.

Ya’alon’s comments came after, earlier Thursday, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi said that Iran’s ability to obtain nuclear weapons was solely dependent on the will of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, adding that Israel was threatened by about 200,000 missiles at any given time.