WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 2, 2012, 3:21 PM (GMT+02:00)

Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi

Iran has completed the development of a nuclear weapon and awaits nothing more than a sign from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to start assembling its first nuclear bomb, said Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi on Thursday, February 2. Assembling a bomb would take up to a year, Kochavi estimated. With 100 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent grade and another 4 tons of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent already in stock, Iran would need another two years to make four nuclear bombs.
Therefore, by the end of 2012 or early 2013 Iran may have a single nuclear bomb, but by 2015 the figure would jump to four or five.

The officer was essentially amplifying the words of his predecessor, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, who said on Jan. 26 that as long ago as 2007 or 2008, Iran had already passed the point of no return in developing nuclear weapons.  Kochavi agreed with him that none of the sanctions imposed thus far had persuaded Iran to slow down, least of all shut down, its drive for a nuclear weapon.

His comments coincided with the findings published Thursday by the Enterprise Institute, an American think tank, that Iran would be able to manufacture a 15-kiloton nuclear bomb as soon as August of this year, just seven months from now.

Also Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon disclosed that the big blast at the Iranian missile base near Tehran last November blew up a new missile system with a range of 10,000 kilometers, capable of targeting the United States.
Commenting on Iran’s underground bunkers for nuclear facilities, the minister stressed that any facility built by man can be destroyed by man. “Speaking as a former chief of staff, I say none of Iran’s installations are immune to attack,” he said.

Major General Kochavi went on to say that if Iran had attained a nuclear capability, this meant that the US and Israel had failed to pre-empt this outcome.

Turning to another threat, the military intelligence chief painted a grim picture of 200,000 rockets and missiles of assorted types pointing at Israel.

Wednesday, February 1, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz stressed that there is no longer any point on the Israeli map that is outside the range of enemy missiles.
According to Gen. Kochavi, Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas are dispersing their missiles and rockets to sites deep inland and integrated in urban environments to minimize their vulnerability to IDF attack. He warned “the enemy” had prepared increasing numbers of its missiles for “depth strikes against Israeli population centers, their warheads more lethal than ever.”

“Every tenth residential house in Lebanon,” he said, “harbors a missile arsenal or launching position. Their sheer volume has reached a strategic dimension with which Israel will have to deal.”

Tuesday, Jan. 31, the IDF practiced mobilizing an armored division under war conditions, debkafile‘s military sources report. The drill simulated moving the troops to conscription bases, arming them with equipment and weapons and getting them to battle lines – all under the heavy missile bombardment of military facilities, national highways and railway lines.
The various assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities have faced serious credibility problems over the years, debkafile‘s intelligence sources note.

Today, thanks to Kochavi and Yadlin, we know that the US National Intelligence Estimate of 2007 accepted by the Bush administration was wrong. Its main finding was that Iran had discontinued its military nuclear program in 2003.  For five years, Western intelligence officials have given out misleading estimates to save their governments having to pursue direct action for preempting a nuclear Iran.
One school of thought claimed that Iran would not build a bomb until it had the resources to create an arsenal; another, that Tehran lacked the technology for weaponizing enriched uranium. Does the latest evaluation that the manufacture of a bomb awaits the decision of one man, the Iranian Supreme Ruler, fall into the same category as the others? Or is it another gambit to fend off a military strike against Iran for five more years?

How do the US and Israel know for sure that Khamenei has not given the order and that Iranian teams are not already busy assembling a bomb in some bunker?

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has maintained more than once that America has the resources for finding out about a decision by the Supreme Leader, but no American or Israeli intelligence officer can endorse this certainty.

It should be remembered, debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources note, that when Western intelligence announced the discovery of the Fordo underground facility near Qom in mid-2009, construction had begun undiscovered at least eighteen months earlier.

US encouraged to up the military ante against Iran – CNN Security Clearance – CNN.com Blogs.

By Pam Benson

The chairman of the House intelligence committee tells CNN the U.S. military needs to do more to “scare” Iran away from pursuing nuclear weapons.

Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Michigan, made the comment in response to a question about a new report by the Bipartisan Policy Center that says the United States must put more teeth into its threat to use military power to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In an interview with CNN, Rogers said more needs to be done: “I’m not saying we ought to bomb Iran, but you almost have to scare them, you have to frighten them to get to the right place.”

The report from the Washington think tank recommended the United States should undertake visible, credible military preparations to go along with more intense sanctions and diplomatic efforts. The military activities could include naval deployments, military exercises and pre-positioning supplies in the region.

The report also said the United States should give credibility to the Israeli military threat against Iran by selling Israel two to three KC-135 aerial refueling tankers and 200 GRU-31 bunker-buster munitions.

In order to stop Iran’s nuclear clock, the report said, the United States “needs to make clear that Iran faces a choice: it can either abandon its nuclear program through a negotiated arrangement or have its program destroyed militarily, by the United States.”

Former Sen. Chuck Robb, who co-chaired the task force that wrote the report, said the group is advocating neither war nor a military strike at the moment, but believes the U.S. will only be effective if it takes credible steps to let Iran know it is serious.
“(To) the extent we are more credible, the chances for using force goes down,” Robb said.

However, Pentagon spokesman Capt. John Kirby said the U.S. is satisfied with its current military posture. He said Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “has made it clear that he is comfortable with the military capabilities we have and operate in the region.”

However, Kirby said, “the U.S. military must and will be ready to provide the president options should those options be desirable.”

Robb stressed any sale of arms to Israel is not meant to encourage the Israelis to strike.

“What we’re doing is giving them more credibility, which clearly will be factored into any decision that Iran may make with respect to whether they can get away with, or survive without much damage, a strike that might be engaged in by Israeli forces,” Robb said.

But a U.S. government official who supports giving Israel the tools it needs to defend itself, cautioned, “The one catch in this is, you have to be careful that it doesn’t look like the United States is prepping Israel to do this by itself. An Israel attack by itself causes a huge problem,” the official said, potentially inflaming the Middle East and forcing U.S. allies in the region to oppose an attack.

Iran dominated a Senate intelligence committee hearing Tuesday on worldwide threats. Lawmakers voiced worries that any effort to stop Iran’s nuclear program could be too little, too late, and some said something needed to be done urgently to prevent Iran from crossing the threshold to possessing nuclear weapons.

Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, D-California, warned that “2012 will be a critical year for convincing or preventing Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon.”

Sen. Dan Coats, R-Indiana, said the time to act is now. But, he said, after a decade of unsuccessful efforts to stop Iran’s nuclear program, he fears Iran will get a nuclear weapon, much as North Korea did.

Israeli-made armor saves US soldiers’ lives – Israel News, Ynetnews.

US ambassador to Israel visits Plasan factory to learn about advanced armor technologies used to protect American soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan. ‘These were critical in saving lives of thousands,’ he asserts

Itamar Eichner

US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro visted Kibbutz Sasa in northern Galilee, home to Plasan factory, in late January to learn about the company’s advanced armor technologies, which have saved countless American soldiers’ lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel‘s Plasan factory manufactures armor which is used in the majority of the US military’s armored vehicles.

“I just recently visited Kibbutz Sasa, the home of Plasan,” Shapiro said at the IDC Herzliya Conferenceon Wednesday. “Plasan met the call to help protect American soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan when they were able to surge the production of up-armor kits for Humvees and for mine-resistant vehicles. These armor kits were critical in saving the lives of thousands of US soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen when they faced the threat of IEDs and RPG attacks.”

 During his visit to the kibbutz, the ambassador got a chance to review many thank you letters sent to Plasan officials by American parents who said it was thanks to the Israeli armor that their sons’ lives were saved.

“It’s no exaggeration to say that thousands of American service members’ lives have been saved by the work and the technology that’s been developed here,” Shapiro noted afterwards.

According to a statement by the US Embassy in Tel Aviv, while visiting Kibbutz Sasa, “The Ambassador saw the full range of products, from reactive armor, to purpose built vehicles, to body armor.”

Plasan has delivered more than 8,000 armor kits to US units on active duty, according to US Embassy in Tel Aviv. “Israel is a world leader in armor technology and the Ambassador expressed his gratitude for the dedication to quality expressed at Plasan,” the statement read. 

“Israel is a strategic asset and partner to the United States. What makes us allies is the unique combination of common values and common interests. We don’t have any better partner in the Middle East, a strategically critical and unstable part of the world,” Shapiro remarked at the IDC Herzliya Conference.

He went on to say, “When you look at the burgeoning economic relationship we have, particularly in the high-tech sector, if we didn’t have the start-up nation here in Israel, we would have to invent it – for the sake of our own economy.

“Virtually every major US technology company has chosen to base major research and development centers here in Israel to draw on the talent and innovation of the Israeli work force and start-up culture.”

Dana Lanzer contributed to this report

Some 200,000 missiles aimed consistently at Israel, top IDF officer says – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Head of military intelligence Aviv Kochavi reiterates army estimates that Iran could further enrich that uranium it already has to create 4 atomic bombs.

By Amos Harel 

About 200,000 missiles are aimed at Israel at any given time, a top Israel Defense Forces officer said on Thursday, adding that Iran’s ability to obtain nuclear weapons was solely dependent on the will of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The remarks by Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi came after IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said on Wednesday that the threats facing Israel have increased and intensified in recent years due to regional instability.

Speaking to the Herzliya Conference, Gantz said that Iran’s nuclear program is a “global problem and a regional problem,” adding that Tehran’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons must continue to be disrupted.

On Thursday, Kochavi, speaking at the opening session of the Herzliya Conference’s closing day, spoke of the growing threats Israel was facing: “a more hostile, more Islamic, more sensitive Middle East, one more attune to public sentiment, less controlled by the regimes, and less susceptible to international influence.”

The chief of military intelligence then indicated that about 200,000 missiles were aimed at Israel at any given time, adding, however, that “Israel’s military deterrence is intact.”

Referring to Israel’s concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Kochavi presented a relatively tame estimation of a possible timeline en route to an Iranian atomic bomb, saying that the project depended more on the will of Iran’s Supreme Leader than on any technological advancement.

“If Khamenei issues a command to achieve a first nuclear explosive device, we estimate it would take another year before that’s achieved,” the top IDF official said, adding that “if he asks to translate that ability to obtain a nuclear warhead, that would take another year or two.”

Kochavi also reiterated the IDF estimate that Iran is in possession of more than 4 tons of low-grade enriched uranium as well as almost 100 kilograms of uranium enriched at 20%.

“If those are enriched more, to a 90% level, that would be enough for 4 atomic bombs,” the IDF officer said.

The military intelligence chief added that the sanctions on Iran “are taking their toll. There’s 16% unemployment, 24% annual inflation, and practically no growth,” he said adding that “at this point the pressure isn’t leading Iran to a strategic shift.”

However, Kochavi added that “there’s a potential, with greater pressure, that the regime, interested first and foremost in its own survival, would reconsider its position.”

Speaking at the Herzliya conference on Tuesday, President Shimon Peres also referred to the Iranian nuclear threat, saying that Tehran’s “evil” leaders cannot be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.

“It is the duty of the international community to prevent evil and nuclear [weapons] from coming together. That is the obligations of most of the leaders of the free world, one which they must meet,” Peres said.

Vice PM: Military strike can hit all of Iran’s nuclear facilities – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Speaking at Herzliya Conference, Moshe Ya’alon calls the possibility of a nuclear Iran a ‘nightmare to the free world,’ says explosion at Iranian missile base targeted missile system that would have threatened the U.S.

By Barak Ravid

All of Iran’s nuclear faculties are vulnerable to a military strike, Vice Prime Minister and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon said on Thursday, calling the potential of a nuclear Iran a “nightmare to the free world.”

At the closing day of the Herzliya Conference, Ya’alon referred to the many tools at the international community’s disposal that could serve to slow down or stop Iran’s advancement toward nuclear weapons capability: international pressure, economic sanctions, support of Iranian opposition, and military actions.

	An aerial photograph showing Iran’s uranium conversion facility just outside the city of Isfahan, March 30, 2005.
	Photo by: AP

Speaking of the possibility of a military strike of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the vice PM said that “the West has the ability to strike, but as long as Iran isn’t convinced that there’s a determination to follow through with it, they’ll continue with their manipulations.”

“The Iranians believe that a determination isn’t still there, both in regards to military action and in regards to sanctions,” Ya’alon said, adding that “any facility protected by humans can be infiltrated by humans. It’s possible to strike all Iran’s facilities, and I say that out of my experience as IDF chief of staff.”

The vice PM’s comments seem to counter reported remarks by U.S. defense officials quoted last week by the Wall Street Journal, according to which the Pentagon was not in possession of conventional arms strong enough to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Ya’alon reiterated the Israeli stance that a nuclear Iran was a global threat, saying that “if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it would be a nightmare for the free world, a nightmare for Arab states…and of course a threat to the State of Israel.”

	Moshe Ya’alon at Herzliya Conference, Feb. 2, 2012.
	Photo by: Tal Nissim

“We’ll see a more intense undermining of regional regimes and the acceleration of terror attacks against those regimes, as well as against Israel and western states, with the United States at the forefront,” Ya’alon said.

The former IDF chief also indicated that an explosion which virtually destroyed an Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base near Tehran late last year targeted a system “getting ready to produce a missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, thus threatening the United States.”

“The Iranian threat is not a case of Iran Vs. Israel. Israel has never declared war on Iran, but the Khomeinistic regime has declared total war on the States of Israel’s very existence,” Ya’alon added, saying that Iran was interested in repelling a perceived western hegemony around the world and not just in the Middle East.

Ya’alon’s comments came after, earlier Thursday, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi said that Iran’s ability to obtain nuclear weapons was solely dependent on the will of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, adding that Israel was threatened by about 200,000 missiles at any given time.

Kochavi: Iran has uranium for 4 nuclear bombs – JPost – Defense.

Ya’alon: Iran was working on US-range miss… JPost – Middle East.

‘Iran-busting’ Israeli drone with wing span of Boeing 737 crashes during test flight | Mail Online.

By Daily Mail Reporter

Last updated at 12:44 PM on 31st January 2012

• Heron TP unmanned aircraft crashed near Israeli air base
• Wing from $30million weapon broke off after new equipment was fitted
• Sources say it was being prepared for a possible strike against Iran

A long-range ‘Iran-busting’ drone crashed near an Israeli air base during a test flight.

A wing from the remote controlled Heron TP, which is nearly as wide as a Boeing 737, broke off after the aircraft ‘performed a manoeuvre beyond its capabilities’ on Sunday.

The accident took place during secret tests to prepare the drone, which can be used for spying and bombing missions, for a military strike against Iran, it has been claimed.

The Israeli Air Force has now launched an investigation into the smash of the $30million craft which can stay in the air for 40 hours and fly for 4,600 miles.

Aircraft down: The Heron TP, Israel’s most advanced unmanned aerial vehicle, crashed on Sunday when its wing broke off during a test flight

Bombing capabilities: The unmanned aircraft, which has a massive wingspan nearly that of a Boeing 737, can stay aloft for 40 hours

General Ido Nehushtan, commander of the Israeli air force, said new technology on the drone was being tested when the aircraft crashed into an orchard near the Tel Nof air base outside Rehovot.

A preliminary investigation indicated that human error and a technical malfunction contributed to the accident.

According to military sources, a wing that fell off the drone had been fitted with a highly advanced navigational device that might have interfered with the aircraft’s other flight systems.

As the Israeli military’s most advanced drone, it has a wingspan of 85ft, nearly that of a Boeing 737, and a payload capacity of 2,000 kilos. It was developed by Israel Aerospace Industries.

Investigation: Authorities examine the crash site, near an orchard close to an Israeli air base

Investigation: According to initial findings, the crash occurred after the UAV performed a manoeuvre beyond its capabilities, causing one of its wings to break off

Known as the Eitan in Israel, the drone has platforms for surveillance equipment and for firing rockets.

It can be used in a variety of missions, such as aerial refuelling, jamming communications and relaying ground control in Israel to manned aircraft over a distant target.

Israeli officials reportedly have been considering a military strike on Iran to prevent the Islamic republic from making an atomic weapon.

The Eitan, which soars as high as 40,000 feet, would likely play a key role in an attack.The distance between Iran and Israel is about 1,000 miles.

A security source in Jerusalem told the Mirror: ‘The crash is of course a blow to the Israeli Air Force, which would obviously play a leading role in any military action against Iran – should current sanctions against Iran be unsuccessful in ­stopping its attempts to develop a nuclear weapon.

‘The Heron is widely known as a drone that can easily reach Iran, hopefully remain unseen while performing an operation and then return to Israel to refuel.’

According to press accounts, the drone was used in a 2009 airstrike in Sudan against a Gaza-bound convoy carrying Iranian arms destined for the Hamas militant group.

The drone also is used reconnaissance missions over Lebanon and along the Egyptian border and to protect against sabotage of Israel’s offshore natural gas installations.

General Nehushtan said 25 percent of the air force’s mission are carried out by drones.

A squadron of Eitans was inaugurated in December 2010 and is scheduled to become operational in coming weeks.

In December, an advanced U.S. surveillance drone using stealth technology went down in Iran. Iranian officials claimed to have forced it down electronically.

HERON TP DRONE: VITAL STATISTICS

Crew: None

Capacity: 2,000kg payload

Length: 46ft

Wingspan: 26m

Range: 4,600 miles

Endurance: 36 hours

Service ceiling: 40,000ft

Amb. Marc Ginsberg: Time to Reset Russia’s Syrian Offense.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco

It’s high time to toss aside diplomatic niceties and place Russia in the diplomatic stockade, along with China and India for good measure (which are Russia’s fellow UN Security Council offenders), in its conspiracy to shelter the illegitimate Bashar al-Assad from global wrath. Pure and simple, the Kremlin’s ignoble efforts to “slow mo” any collective international action against the outlaw Syrian regime is, I regret to say, the diplomatic equivalent of facilitating felony murder. Moscow deservedly earns the indictment given Russia’s reckless racketeering on behalf of Assad’s regime as it transforms Syria into a free fire zone.

So where are the marches of outraged fraternal Arab allies on Russia’s Middle East diplomatic posts?

Under the cover of Vladimir Putin’s full court protection, Assad’s security forces have unleashed the bloodiest offensive yet against defenseless Syrians. Major Syrian cities are under indiscriminate tank and artillery fire, including the outskirts of Damascus, which had been under growing rebel control. By latest count over 6,500 Syrian civilians have died, and countless tens of thousands more have been tortured and wounded.

Assad has reverted full throttle to his father, Hafez’s “Hama Rules” 1982 playbook — surround Syrian cities and unleash a merciless barrage of indiscriminate fire power against any edifice in the crosshairs: homes, buildings, schools, hospitals, you name it no matter who and how many men, women and children are killed and wounded.

If Americans and the rest of the world could see for themselves what is now taking place in Syria’s restive cities, the media would be in a feeding frenzy demanding concerted international action against the perpetrators. Alas, if there is one thing Assad did right to save his regime, it was to deny the media independent access to Syria.

In 1982, the elder Assad massacred 20,000 of his own citizens. “Baby Doc” Bashar is nothing more than a crueler chip off the old block — who would have guessed that the once gentle ophthalmologist could muster the evilness to wreak such havoc on his population? Good tutoring from Putin and Ahmadinejad? At the rate the younger Assad is murdering his own people he just may exceed his father’s 1982 atrocity.

The Kremlin ordered its envoy to the UN Security Council to block a benign draft resolution proposed by Morocco on behalf of its fellow Arab League members to propose that Bashar al-Assad yield the Syrian presidency to his deputy and develop a transitional unity government that would organize elections within two months. The draft resolution has been so watered down as a sop to Russian sensitivities by its Arab and European sponsors that it neither calls for military action by Council members, much less additional economic sanctions. Yet Moscow has warned that the draft is “unacceptable” (aka veto bait).

Perhaps Prime Minister Putin should use this interregnum between Council meetings to reflect on the consequences of his actions. If Russia vetoes the resolution, which is a reasonable path to a political settlement inside Syria, it would constitute a vote against fundamental principles of the UN Charter and a good part of the democratic world should be outraged; but, knowing Putin, not surprised.

It may take longer, but Assad and his clique will eventually be gone — but at what cost to Syria’s future stability? An all-out civil war brought to us no less than by a callous Kremlin?

As I wrote in these pages last October, Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution which merely “condemned” the violence committed by the Assad regime, portending Russia’s determination to shelter Assad from any pressure to make tangible concessions to his political opponents.

Russia has been the Assad family’s steadfast global “muscle” for over 50 years. Syria is one of the Kremlin’s most profitable arms purchasers (and as we speak Russian arms are pouring into Syria). But Putin has made a bad bet staying in bed with Assad. In the end, when Assad is brought before the World Court in the Hague, or is hunted down like Gaddafi, the Syrian people will not soon forget that it was Russia that enabled Assad’s killing fields.

Unfortunately, given the diplomatic squabble over a relatively toothless resolution the impending showdown in the Security Council will not produce a decisive plan to force Assad’s finger off the trigger. It will take the leadership of the Arab League’s key players, along with Turkey, to lay the groundwork for something more than what the Russians will abide by.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that it was his government’s goal to facilitate an internal Syrian solution without outside military intervention. So why is Russia rushing more and more arms to Syria — if that is not military intervention by design, what is? If he is to be believed, the U.S., Europe and their Arab allies should keep the Security Council in round the clock session until hell freezes over (to coin a historic demarche made by then U.S. envoy to the U.N. Adlai Stevenson during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis) to force Russia into accepting a resolution that paves the way for that very internal solution the Russians claim they support.

That, at the very least, is what it has come down to at the UN when dealing with Assad’s atrocities and may be the last best chance to avert an even bloodier and dangerous civil war inside Syria that would spill over throughout the region.

P.S. Memo to the White House: The Kremlin is acting at the UN and bilaterally as if there was no reset in relations. Further Russian arms shipments to Syria as long as the violence escalates is like pouring fuel on an escalating fire. It is outrageous and the Russians should be called out on the continuing arms transfers to Assad. Time to get that button out again.

Britain in Suez in 1956 = Russia in Syria in 2012? « Russia Watch.

Voice of America

ritain in Suez in 1956 = Russia in Syria in 2012?

Cartoon shows Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin trying to use his UN Security Council veto to reanimate Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Under protection of the Free Syrian Army in Kafranbel, near the Turkish border, demonstrators held this sign in a protest January 27 against what they called Russia’s backing of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. Photo: Reuters

Is Russia living its Suez moment?
In October, 1956, France, Britain and Israel attacked Egypt in an attempt to reverse President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s nationalization of the Suez Canal. The United States and the Soviet Union strong armed the three attacking nations into pulling back.
Today, that conflict is widely seen as the bitter, historical turning point when Britons realized they were no longer a world power.

It is also seen as the dawn of Moscow’s influence in the Middle East, a region distant from its pre-Cold War sphere of influence.

Now, half a century later in Syria, we may be witnessing the sun setting on Moscow’s sway over the Arab world. For Russians, it is a painful reminder of Russia’s reduced reach in the world.

Last year, Moscow stubbornly clung to it Soviet legacy allies in the Arab world. One by one, they wobbled, and eventually fell: Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, and, finally, Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi. Now the Kremlin seems to making a last stand with Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad.

Russia is threatening to veto a United Nations resolution calling for a political transition in Damascus. If Mr. Assad goes, the Kremlin seems to reason, Russia has nothing to gain, and a lot to lose.

In one legacy of 40 years of close ties, the signs are in Arabic and in Russian at an opposition protest outside Syria’s embassy in Moscow. Signs read “The Syrian Media Are Lying” and “Take the Hands of the Security Services Off the Syrian People.” Photo: AP/Mikhail Metzel

Moscow’s 40-year alliance with Assad family has concrete benefits today: $4 billion in arms contracts for future delivery, $20 billion in gas investments, and Tartus naval station, Russia’s last military base outside the former Soviet Union.

On March 4, Russians vote for president. For the next month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the leading candidate, has no interest in alienating a key electoral constituency, Russia’s military-industrial complex. (The real foreign policy votegetter is to keep the beaches of Egypt, Tunisia, Israel and Turkey open for the millions of Russian vacationers who now flee there every winter.)

On the world stage, Mr. Putin is determined not to be pushed around by the West. In Moscow, officials talk darkly about “the Libya scenario” and “the Libya precedent.”

Russian officials still see geopolitics through the old simplistic, Soviet zero sum lens. The fall of Gadhafi was a victory for Washington, and a setback for Moscow.

It rarely occurs to Russian journalists to talk to real Libyans, and ask them what they want. It rarely occurs to Russian diplomats that if they keep complaining about Libya’s revolution, Russian businessmen are going to stand at the back of the line in Tripoli.

Part of this stems from a deep skepticism in Russia today about revolution. After two traumatic revolutions in the 20th century, this allergy is shared in Russia by both the rulers and the ruled.

Demonstrators step on Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s poster during a protest against Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad after Friday prayers in Homs January 27, 2012. Photo: Reuters

But there is also a disdain for Arab public opinion.
In Libya and Syria, Moscow has taken stands opposing the will of the Arab League. Of course, Russia, the world’s largest oil producer, has no need to tiptoe around the big oil producers that dominate the Arab League.

But, now Arab newspapers and internet sites are peppered with a novelty: anti-Russian cartoons and protest images coming from Syria and from Syrian exiles.

In Moscow, Russia’s plummeting stock in the Arab world is a non-issue. Beneath this lack of concern may be the unspoken understanding that Moscow is wrapping up its big power role in the region.

The half century that started with Suez, may end with Syria.

One of several anti-Russian banners held by demonstrators who gathered in Kafranbel after Friday prayers on Jan. 20 to protest what they saw as Russia’s backing for Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. Photo: Reuters