Archive for February 2012

Syria: Assad Secret Memos Reveal Tactics On Dealing With Press; Barbara Walters

February 7, 2012

Syria: Assad Secret Memos Reveal Tactics On Dealing With Press; Barbara Walters | World News | Sky News.

(ANONYMOUS !  Protector of the people!  All the honor…. – JW )

Anonymous Hackers

Private messages between the president and his advisers have been revealed by hacking group Anonymous.

The Syrian government’s computer system has reportedly been hacked, to reveal private memos, documents and emails apparently advising President Bashar al Assad on how to tackle reactions to his crackdown on protesters.

Hacking group Anonymous claim the documents show how advisers close to the president offer their thoughts on how he should deal with questions from the press amid the government’s on-going military campaign.

One email appears to advise Assad on how to approach his interview with ABC’s Barbara Walters, who spoke to the leader late last year.

“Mentioning ‘armed groups’ in the interview is extremely important and we can use American and British articles to prove there are armed gangs,” the adviser writes.

The president was also advised to mention the way protests are sometimes handled in western countries, adding that “Syria doesn’t have a policy to torture people, unlike the USA… We can use Abu Ghraib in Iraq as an example”.

Sky’s foreign affairs editor Tim Marshal said of the hacking: “The translations of the emails from Arabic to English do not prove that they are what the hackers say, but it would have taken a solid knowledge of how the Syrian government and political public relations works to make them up,” he said.

“The emails are not particularly damaging to the Syrian government, which would mean if forged someone has gone to a lot of effort for little gain.

“This suggests they are real, and while not devastating, they throw some light on the government’s thinking.”

An email goes on to explain that admitting to errors committed early on may be a good way of shaping public opinion.

“American psyche can be easily manipulated when they hear that there are ‘mistakes’ done and now we are ‘fixing it,'” the email says.

Continuing to generalise about western thought processes, the adviser says Facebook and YouTube are “open now” and that these things are “very important to the American mind-set”.

The adviser continues: “It would be worth mentioning how your personality has been attacked and praised in the last decade according to the media,” adding that he should make more of the “hero” and “bad guy” images because “Americans love these kinds of things and get convinced by it”.

Another memo appeared to uncover the identity of a suspected defected diplomat who had recently given an anonymous interview to a western reporter.

The hacking by Anonymous is the latest in a number of high-profile attempts by them at revealing classified information. Earlier this month hackers from the same group intercepted FBI calls with Scotland Yard.

President Assad’s crackdown started almost a year ago, and this weekend saw operations intensify in the city of Homs, where Sky correspondent Stuart Ramsey is with activists.

Iran: Genocide a Moral Obligation

February 7, 2012

Iran: Genocide a Moral Obligation – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

An article calling for the destruction of Israel and genocide has appeared on numerous official government and military websites in Iran
By Gavriel Queenann

First Publish: 2/6/2012, 11:04 PM

 

Ali Khameini

Ali Khameini
Israel news photo: Wikimedia Commons/sajed.ir

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday endorsed a new doctrine explaining why it would be ‘legally and morally justified’ to commit genocide and wipe Israel off the map.

The article was written by Khameini’s close adviser Alireza Forghani and endorsed by the Supreme Leader whose writings played a critical role in its drafting.

The article has since appeared on numerous Iranian government and military websites.

“Israel is a cancerous tumor in the Middle East,” the article in the ultraconservative Farsi-language Alef news site. “Israel is a satanic media outlet with bombers. Every Muslim is required to arm themselves against Israel.”

“I have already noted the usurper state of Israel poses a grave threat to Islam and Muslim countries. Islam and Muslim states must not lose this opportunity to remove the corruption from out midst. All of our problems are because of Israel – Israel of America.”

“The first step should be the absolute destruction of Israel. To this end, Iran could make use of long-range missiles. The distance between us is only 2,600 KM. It can be done in minutes.”

The crux of the piece says Iran would be justified in launching a pre-emptive strike against Israel because of the threat the Jewish state’s leaders are posing against its own nuclear facilities.

However, during a lengthy discussion of the ‘jurisprudence of Jihad,’ the article makes it clear that an Israeli strike ‘isn’t required’ and would ultimately serve as a pretext for genocide.

Instead, he says ‘defensive Jihad’ justifies annihilating Israel and targeting its civilian population because Israel has “spilled Muslim blood” and “oppresses” its Muslim neighbors.

“With regard to the fake state of Israel in Palestine, which is included in the first Qibla of Muslims, we must defend the sacred blood of Muslims in Islamic Palestine using any means necessary,” it goes on to explain.

“If the enemy should invade Muslim lands and spill Muslim blood, it is obligatory upon the Muslim masses to use every means possible to defend the lives and property of their brothers. It does not require a judge’s permission.

“But regardless of the Israeli aggression against Palestine and the Muslims, it is clear the heads of this fake regime seek to dominate other Islamic lands on its borders and to develop hegemony over the region,” it reads.

The article makes it clear Iran sees no place in the Middle East for the Jews.

“Political subdivisions of states and political boundaries between units are not relevant and what is important is to divide the nations and territories based on beliefs and religions groups, blood and blood. Muslim blood must be separate from Infidel blood,” it says, citing Khameini’s writings.

The document then cites statistics saying 5.7 million of Israel’s 7.5 million citizens are Jewish – as a justification for attack. It then proceeds to break down Israel by region and demographic concentrations in order that the most Jews possible would be killed.

It specifically states that Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa ,contain more than 60 per cent of the Jewish population, which could be hit by Shahab 3 ballistic missiles to “easily kill everyone.”

The publication of the doctrine comes after Khamenei announced on Friday that Iran would support any nation or group that attacks the ‘cancerous tumor’ of Israel.

Since its publications several Iranian officials have called for a strike on Israel “within the year.”

 

Obama’s rhetorical storm

February 7, 2012

Our World: Obama’s rhetorical sto… JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

By CAROLINE B. GLICK 02/06/2012 23:28
If you take the Obama administration’s statements at face value you are left scratching your head in wonder.

US President Barack Obama [file] By REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The Obama administration is absolutely furious at Russia and China. The two UN Security Council permanent members’ move on Saturday to veto a resolution on Syria utterly infuriated the US’s President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Ambassador Susan Rice. And they want us all to know just how piping mad they really are.

Rice called the vetoes “unforgivable,” and said that “any further blood that flows will be on their hands.” She said the US was “disgusted.”

Clinton called the move by Moscow and Beijing a “travesty.” She then said that the US will take action outside the UN, “with those allies and partners who support the Syrian people’s right to have a better future.”

The rhetoric employed by Obama’s top officials is striking for what it reveals about how the Obama administration perceives the purpose of rhetoric in foreign policy.

Most US leaders have used rhetoric to explain their policies. But if you take the Obama administration’s statements at face value you are left scratching your head in wonder. Specifically on Syria, if you take these statements literally, you are left wondering if Obama and his advisers are simply clueless. Because if they are serious, their indignation bespeaks a remarkable ignorance about how decisions are made at the Security Council.

Is it possible that Obama believed that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would betray Bashar Assad, his most important strategic ally in the Middle East? Is it possible that he believed that the same Chinese regime that systematically tramples the human rights of its people would agree to intervene in another country’s domestic affairs? Outside the intellectual universe of the Obama administration – where stalwart US allies such as Hosni Mubarak are discarded like garbage and foes such as Hugo Chavez are wooed like Hollywood celebrities – national governments tend to base their foreign policies on their national interests.

In light of this basic reality, Security Council actions generally reflect the national interests of its member states. This is how it has always been.

This is how it will always be. And it is hard to believe that the Obama administration was unaware of this basic fact.

In fact, it is impossible to believe that the administration was unaware that its plan to pass a Security Council resolution opposing Assad’s massacre of his people – and so jeopardize Russian and Chinese interests – had no chance of success. The fact that they had to know the resolution would never pass leads to the conclusion that Obama and his advisers weren’t trying to pass a resolution on Syria at all.

Rather they were trying to pass the buck on Syria.

We have two pieces of evidence to support the view that the Obama administration has no intention of doing anything even vaguely effective to end Assad’s reign of terror that has so far taken the lives of between five and ten thousand of his countrymen.

First, for the past 10 months, as Assad’s killing machine kicked into gear, Obama and his advisers have been happy to sit on their hands. They supported Turkey’s feckless diplomatic engagement with Assad. They sat back as Turkish Prime Minister Recip Tayep Erdogan employed the IHH, his regime-allied terror group, to oversee the organization of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Syrian opposition.

Second, the administration supported the Arab League’s farcical inspectors’ mission to Syria. That mission was led by Sudanese Gen. Muhammad al- Dabi. Dabi reportedly was one of the architects of the genocide in Darfur. Clearly, a mission under his leadership had no chance of accomplishing anything useful. And indeed, it didn’t.

AND SO, after nearly a year, the issue of Assad’s butchery of his citizens finally found its way to the Security Council last month. Many in the US expected Obama to use the opportunity to finally do something to stop the killing, just as he and his NATO allies did something to prevent the killing in Libya last year.

Ten months ago Obama, Rice, Clinton and National Security Council member Samantha Power decided that the US and its allies had to militarily intervene in Libya to ensure that Muammar Gaddafi didn’t have the opportunity to kill his people as Assad is now doing. That is, to prevent the type of human rights calamity that the Syrian people are now experiencing, Obama used the UN as a staging ground to overthrow Gaddafi through force.

Sadly for the people of Syria, who are being shot dead even as they try to bury their families who were shot dead the day before, unlike the situation in Libya, Obama has never had the slightest intention of using his influence to take action against Assad. And faced with the rapidly rising public expectation that he would take action at the Security Council to stop the killing, Obama opted for diplomatic Kabuki.

Knowing full well that Putin – who is still selling Assad weapons – would veto any resolution, rather than accept that the Security Council is a dead end, Obama had Rice negotiate fecklessly with her Russian counterparts. The resolution that ended up being called to a vote on Saturday was so weak that US Rep.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, issued a statement on Friday calling for the administration to veto it.

As Ros-Lehtinen put it, the draft resolution “contains no sanctions, no restrictions on weapons transfers, and no calls for Assad to go, but supports the failed Arab League observer mission,” and so isn’t “worth the paper it’s printed on.”

She continued, “The Obama administration should not support this weak, counterproductive resolution, and should also reconsider the legitimacy that it provides to the Arab League – an organization that continues to boycott Israel – when it comes to the regime in Damascus.”

But instead of vetoing it, the administration backed it to the tilt and then expressed disgust and moral outrage when Russia and China vetoed it.

The lesson of this spectacle is that it we must recognize that the Obama administration’s rhetoric hides more than it reveals about the president’s actual policies.

THE FIRST place that we should apply this lesson is to the hemorrhage of administration rhetoric about Iran.

For the past several weeks we have been treated to massive doses of verbiage from Obama and his senior advisers about Iran. The most notable of these recent statements was Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s conversation with The Washington Post’s David Ignatius last week.

Panetta used Ignatius to communicate two basic messages. First, he wanted to make clear that the administration adamantly opposes an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear installations. And second, he wanted to make clear that if Iran strikes Israeli population centers, the US will come to Israel’s defense.

The purpose of the first message is clear enough.

Panetta wished to increase pressure on Israel not to take preemptive action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The purpose of the second message is also clear.

Panetta spoke of the US’s obligation to Israel’s defense in order to remove the justification for an Israeli attack.

After all, if the US is obliged to defend it, then Israel mustn’t risk harming US interests by defending itself.

When taken together, Panetta’s message sounds balanced and responsible. But when examined carefully, it is clear that it is not. First of all, it is far from responsible for the US government to tell its chief ally that it should be willing to absorb an attack on its population centers from Iran. No government can be expected to sit back and wait to be attacked with nuclear weapons because if it is, the Americans will retaliate against its attacker. Panetta’s message was not just irresponsible.

It was obnoxious.

And this leaves the first message. Since Obama was elected the US has devoted most of its energies not to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but to pressuring Israel not to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. And Panetta’s remarks to Ignatius were consistent with this mission.

Some have argued that the US’s stepped-up naval presence in the Persian Gulf is evidence that the US is itself gearing up to attack Iran. But as retired US naval analyst J.E. Dyer explained in an essay last month at the Optimistic Conservative blog, the US posture in the Persian Gulf is defensive, not offensive.

The US has not deployed anywhere near the firepower it would need to conduct a successful military campaign against Iran’s nuclear installations. The only thing the US deployment may serve to accomplish is to deter Israel from launching a preemptive air strike against Iran’s nuclear installations.

It is true that to a certain extent, Israel has brought this escalating American rhetorical storm on itself with its own flood of rhetoric about Iran. Over the past week nearly every senior Israeli military and political official has had something to say about Iran’s nuclear program.

But this stream of words does not reflect a change in Israel’s strategic timetable. Rather it is a function of the rather mundane calendar of Israel’s annual conference circuit. It just so happened that the annual Herzliya Conference took place last week. It is standard fare for Israel’s security and political leadership to bloviate about Iran’s nuclear program at Herzliya. They do it every year. They did it this year.

And in truth, no one said anything at the conference that we didn’t already know. We learned nothing new about Iran’s program or Israel’s intentions. Had there been no conference last week, there would likely have been no flood of Israeli statements.

We only know three things for certain about Iran. It is getting very late in the game for anyone to take any military actions to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran will not stop its nuclear weapons program voluntarily. And Obama will not order US forces to take action to stop Iran’s nuclear project.

What remains uncertain still is how Israel plans to respond to these three certainties. The fact that Israel has waited this long to strike presents the disturbing prospect that our leaders may have been confused by the Obama administration’s rhetoric. Perhaps they have been persuaded that the US is on our side on this issue and that we don’t have to rely only on ourselves to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

But as the foregoing analysis of the administration’s very angry words on Syria and very sober words on Iran demonstrates, Obama and his deputies use rhetoric not to clarify their intentions, but to obfuscate them. Just as they will do nothing to prevent Assad from continuing his campaign of murder and terror, so they will do nothing to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

caroline@carolineglick.com

Dr. Josef Olmert: Assad’s Downfall and the Regional Balance of Power

February 7, 2012

Dr. Josef Olmert: Assad’s Downfall and the Regional Balance of Power.

The remaining advocates of Bashar Assad are working overtime to portray a vision of a completely chaotic Middle East if and when the Alawite regime finally collapses. To predict chaos in the Middle East is a safe bet, so what’s really new in this case? The threat of chaos is almost automatically linked to another round of Arab-Israeli war, this time a Shi’ite-led Iranian-Hezbollah-Alawite desperate attack on Israel. Well, while the Israelis may naturally take the proper precautionary steps to deal with the day after Assad, they are far from showing any sign of undue worry or panic.

There is concern about the arsenal of chemical warheads that is in Syrian hands, some of it was transferred to Syria from Iraq on the eve of the American invasion of March 2003. The fear is that these warheads may find their way to Hezbollah and Iran. Surely not a pleasant prospect, but not one that cannot be dealt with. Even Hezbollah and the Iranians know that any attempt to use these weapons against Israel will be calamitous to them. The thought that either of the two will risk their very existence [in the case of Hezbollah], or most vital national interests [in the case of Iran], in support of the Alawite dictatorship is good for psychological warfare, but not in the real world. The same applies to the possibility of Iranian closure of the straits of Hormuz in support of Assad. Really? Not really…

They will not do that. All this is relevant to the Syrian situation and its implications, not to the much talked-about scenario of an Israeli or American attack against the Iranian nuclear program. This is clearly a totally different opera. The connection between a final collapse of the Assad regime and the Israeli and/or American calculus regarding Iran is possible but not inevitable. Sure, a Syrian participation in an Iranian retaliation against a strike is not something cherished by Israeli and American planners and policy makers, but this is becoming a remote possibility since the Syrian Army is in a stage of disintegration. General Mustafa Al-Sheikh, the highest ranking Syrian defector, predicted some days ago that the Syrian Army will disintegrate until the end of February. This may be wishful thinking in terms of the timing, but not the process, which is very obvious, leading in the not distant future to that exact outcome. So, if we move away from the Israeli angle of the situation, what else can happen affecting neighboring countries and overall regional stability? First, we can expect a massive refugee problem, Alawites trying to cross to Lebanon and Turkey. Also, possible mass flight out of Ba’athi functionaries, not just Alawites. Chaos in Syria will inevitably take its toll of neighboring Lebanon.

Tripoli, a Sunni city with a sizable Alawite minority, is likely to explode, and that will be part of a bigger issue in Lebanon, as the traditional anti-Assad forces there, mainly the Sunnis and some Christian Maronite factions, will find the new circumstances conducive to put pressure on Hezbollah, demanding it dismantle its arms. The not so old wounds created by the assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri will reopen with ferocity. Whether all that will lead Lebanon towards chaos is not clear, though it’s likely. Sheikh Nasrallah, however, will find himself and Hezbollah engaged in a conflict with the majority of the Lebanese people. So, under these circumstances, a war initiated by him against Israel may seem a good diversionary exercise, but still is highly unlikely. The Sheikh will fight for his own survival inside Lebanon as his first priority.

Another country that will feel the brunt of the Assad collapse will be Iraq, where the current Sunni-Shi’i tension may be greatly exacerbated, as the former will be much encouraged by the rise of a new regime in Syria, most likely Sunni-dominated. Not for nothing, the Maliki government in Iraq is the most pro-Assad Arab government. They know why.

Then there is Turkey. But for the expected Alawite flight across the northwestern border, the Turks should be greatly preoccupied by the fallout of a collapse in Damascus on the northeast border, where over 2 million Syrian Kurds live, just waiting to rid themselves of the Assad yoke. An unruly Kurdish population on the Syrian side of the border will not be good news to the Turkish government and military having to deal with their own unruly Kurdish population.

The Turks may gain, however, many political dividends from their support to the Sunni Syrian rebels. A Sunni-dominated regime in Damascus is likely to be friendly to Ankara, and so Turkey’s overall regional standing may be significantly enhanced. Such a regime in Damascus will also be friendly to the Saudis, and a Turkish-Saudi rivalry over influence in Damascus of the future is highly likely. The big losers will be Iranians. They cannot expect a friendly Syrian government in the near future. The overall regional Sunni-Shi’i schism will be in display in the most dramatic way. But even that is not really new, as this schism has been a feature of Middle East Islamic reality since the killing of Imam Hussein in 680 A.D.

The downfall of Bashar Assad is behind the door. No Armageddon, but still a significant challenge to regional stability.

Op-ed: The Covert Meaning Behind the Headlines

February 7, 2012

Op-ed: The Covert Meaning Behind the Headlines – Features – News – Israel National News.

Undermining Israel, explicitly and implicitly.
By Rachel Hirshfeld

First Publish: 2/7/2012, 2:13 AM

 

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The writer is a member of the Arutz Sheva staff.

Often, what is reported in the media is just as significant as the way in which the information is relayed as well as what stories and details get omitted, determined to be ‘unfit to print.’ Politically savvy readers quickly learn that they must read between the lines, ascertain the nuisances of political headlines and deconstruct the language being used, in order to discern the true message behind the information being conveyed.

On February 3, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reaffirmed the Iranian regime’s commitment to obtaining nuclear weapons and fighting any country that seeks to hinder such efforts, namely the United States and Israel. He espoused that any attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities would result in an attack “10 times worse for the interests of the United States.”

While the story quickly made headlines, Commentary Magazine’s Jonathan S. Tobin poignantly notes that not all noteworthy publications, namely The New York Times, chose to report such noteworthy news. He states, “there was something missing from the Times report of Khamenei’s speech that was reported elsewhere. Other accounts noted that in addition to threatening the United States, Khamenei said this: ‘The Zionist regime is a cancerous tumor and it will be removed.’ While we don’t know how or why a mention of this element of speech managed to get excised from the account in the Times, it’s a question worth pondering.” As one of the leading newspapers in the United States, one must question whether such an omission was simply a careless oversight, or an intentional omission, aimed at understating Israel right to defend itself, whether or not given the “green light” from the American administration.

Furthermore, last week the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Mohammed Hussein, exemplified the incitement and hatred that is so prevalent in Palestinian society, encouraging and exalting the killing of Jews.  Marking the 47th anniversary of the founding of Fatah he said, “The hour of judgment will not come until you fight the Jews… The Jews will hide behind the stone and behind the tree. The stone and the tree will cry, ‘Oh Muslim, Oh Servant of God, this is a Jew behind me, come and kill him.” This statement came only a few days before International Holocaust Remembrance Day, during which world leaders, or at least those still committed to preventing genocides against the Jewish people, pledged to never allow such an atrocity to occur again.

While proclamations of “Never Again” are all very noble and heartwarming, one must ask, given the anti-Semitic trends of our times, if such statements really hold any weight. If President Obama, who, upon his quest for the Jewish vote in the upcoming elections, pledges his commitment to the Jewish people and to the State of Israel, why, then, were there no statements issued condemning the remarks of the Grand Mufti, whose rhetoric, like that of the Iranian regime, directly mirrors the rhetoric used by Hitler and the Nazi party?

While it is true that if one is still surprised by the aforementioned statements, he or she has, apparently, not been keeping up with the political trends of our times or the reoccurring cycle of Jewish history. However, whether leaders, like the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem and the Supreme Leader of Iran, unmistakably proclaim their desire to obliterate the “Zionist entity” or, whether journalists and politicians, who chose to omit or refrain from issuing harsh and unapologetic statements of condemnation in response, are all embarking down a similar path, overt or covert, characterized by undermining the State of Israel and Jewish People.

(How) Should Israel Bomb Iran? – WSJ.com

February 7, 2012

Stephens: (How) Should Israel Bomb Iran? – WSJ.com.

Diplomacy has run its course, sanctions are too late, and Israel can’t cry wolf again.

Can Israel attack Iran? If it can, will it? If it will, when? If when, how?

And what happens after that?

On Sunday with Matt Lauer, President Obama said “I don’t think that Israel has made a decision on what they need to do.” That didn’t square with the view of Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who’s been reported as saying he expects an Israeli attack this spring. Nor does it square with public warnings from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak that the Iranians would soon enter a “zone of immunity” from foreign military attack if nothing is done to stop them.

Yes, these war drums have been beaten before. But this time it’s different.

Diplomacy has run its course: Even U.N. diplomats now say Iran uses negotiations as a tactic to buy time. The sanctions are too late: Israel can’t afford to wait a year or two to see if Europe’s embargo on Iranian oil or the administration’s squeeze on Iran’s financial institutions will alter Tehran’s nuclear calculations.

Covert action—computer bugs, assassinations, explosions—may have slowed Iran’s progress, but plainly not by enough. And Israel can only hint so many times that it’s planning to attack before the world tires of the bluster-and-retreat routine.

Two additional points. Washington and Jerusalem are at last operating from a common timetable—Iran is within a year of getting to the point when it will be able to assemble a bomb essentially at will. And speaking of timetables, Jerusalem knows that Mr. Obama will be hard-pressed to oppose an Israeli strike—the way Dwight Eisenhower did during the Suez crisis—before election day. A re-elected President Obama is a different story.

That means that from here until November the U.S. traffic light has gone from red to yellow. And Israelis aren’t exactly famous for stopping at yellow lights.

But can they do it? There’s a mountain of nonsense exaggerating Israel’s military capabilities: Israel does not, for instance, operate giant drones capable of refueling jet fighters in midair.

gloview0207

AFP/Getty Images

Israeli F-15 fighter jets refuel during an air show.

At the same time, there’s an equally tall mountain of nonsense saying that Israel is powerless to do significant damage to Iran’s nuclear-weapons complex, as if the Islamic Republic were the second coming of the USSR. In fact, Iran is a Third World country that can’t even protect its own scientists in the heart of Tehran. It has a decrepit air force, antiquated air defenses, a vulnerable electrical grid, exposed nuclear sites (the uranium conversion plant at Esfahan, the heavy water facility at Arak, the reactor at Bushehr), and a vulnerable energy infrastructure on which its economy is utterly dependent. Even its deeply buried targets can be destroyed. It’s all a question of time, tonnage and precision.

The bottom line is that a strike on Iran that sets its nuclear ambitions back by several years is at the outer periphery of Israel’s military capability, but still within it.

As for how Israel would do it, the important point is that any strike that’s been as widely anticipated as this one would have to contain some significant element of surprise—a known unknown. What could that be? Here’s a hint: Gen. Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, recently warned that “any place where enemy offensive operations against the Islamic Republic originate will be the target of a reciprocal attack.” Look at a map: Africa and Central Asia are wide open places.

What happens on the day after? Israelis estimate that between Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria and Iran itself, there are some 200,000 missiles and rockets pointed in their direction. They could start falling before the first sortie of Israeli jets returned to base. Israel’s civil defenses have been materially improved in recent years. But the country would still have to anticipate that missile and rocket barrages would overwhelm its defenses, causing hundreds of civilian casualties. Israel would also have to be prepared to go to war in Lebanon, Gaza and even Syria if Iran calls on the aid of its allies.

Put simply, an Israeli strike on Iran would not just be a larger-scale reprise of the attacks that took out Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007. On the contrary: If it goes well it would look somewhat like the Six Day War of 1967, and if it goes poorly like the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Nobody should think we’re talking about a cakewalk.

So: Should Israel do it? If the U.S. has no serious intention to go beyond sanctions, Israel’s only alternative to action is to accept a nuclear Iran and then stand by as the rest of its neighbors acquire nuclear weapons of their own. That scenario is the probable end of Israel.

Then again, if Israel is going to gamble so much on a strike, it should play for large stakes. The Islamic Republic means to destroy Israel. If Israel means to survive, it should commit itself similarly. Destroying Iran’s nuclear sites will be a short-lived victory if it isn’t matched to the broader goal of ending the regime.

Diplomats: Iran boosts nuclear work in bunker

February 6, 2012

Diplomats: Iran boosts nuclear w… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

 

By REUTERS 02/06/2012 21:05
Iran is believed to be developing uranium enrichment activity, in a defiant move against increasing Western pressure to halt its nuclear program, say diplomatic sources.

Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor By Raheb Homavandi / Reuters

VIENNA – Iran is believed to be expanding uranium enrichment activity deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources said on Monday, a move likely to add to tension with Western powers that suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

The move to increase sensitive nuclear work at the Fordow underground site near the Shi’ite Muslim holy city of Qom, even if expected, underlines the Islamic state’s defiance in the face of intensifying Western pressure to curb such activity.

Iran last month confirmed it had begun refining uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent at Fordow, shifting its highest-grade enrichment from an above-ground location to better protect it against any strikes by Israel or the United States.

Washington, which has not ruled out military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to resolve the long-running nuclear dispute, on Jan. 9 denounced the start-up of the Fordow plant as a further escalation of Iran’s “ongoing violations” of UN resolutions.

At that time, diplomats said Iran was operating at Fordow two so-called cascades, each of 174 centrifuges – machines that spin at supersonic speed to increase the ratio of the fissile isotope. More centrifuges were being installed, they said.

Enriched uranium can have both civilian and military uses.

One Vienna-based diplomat said two more cascades, like the first pair connected with each other to make the process more efficient, had now also been deployed to enrich uranium.

“The second set of cascades is operational … my understanding is they are both operational and (have) no problems,” the diplomat said.

Another diplomat accredited to the IAEA also painted a picture of expanding activity at Fordow, without giving details.

Neither Iran nor the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Vienna-based UN agency that regularly inspects Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, was immediately available for comment.

Iran said last year that it would transfer its highest-grade uranium refinement work to Fordow from its main enrichment plant at Natanz, and sharply boost capacity.

The decision to move work which the UN Security Council has called on Iran to suspend to an underground facility could further complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the standoff peacefully.

US Policy on Israel’s Potential Attack on Iran

February 6, 2012

US Policy on Israel’s Potential Attack on Iran.

 

Israel has signaled once again that it is weighing an attack, if all else fails, to halt Iran’s advancing nuclear weapons program as an act of anticipatory self-defense. This time, more officials in Washington and other capitals are listening. Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that Tehran will retaliate against the U.S. in the event that Israel launches a strike. The U.S. should have a clear and unambiguous policy on how it will respond if Israel undertakes legitimate action for its self-defense.

Before an Attack

To mitigate the threats posed by Iran to U.S. national security and to protect U.S. interests, the United States should:

  • Recognize Israel’s right to self-defense against a hostile Islamist dictatorship that also threatens U.S. interests and regional stability. Washington should not seek to block Israel from taking what it considers to be necessary action against an existential threat. The U.S. does not have the power to guarantee that Israel would not be attacked by a nuclear Iran in the future, so it should not betray the trust of an ally by tying its hands now. Although an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program would entail increased risks for U.S. interests in the Middle East, these risks would be dwarfed by the threats posed by a nuclear-armed Iran. Moreover, a nuclear Iran would induce many other Middle Eastern states to seek their own nuclear weapons. This cascade of nuclear proliferation would enormously increase the risks of a future nuclear exchange.
  • Continue to deploy missile defenses to defend Israel and other U.S. allies from Iranian missile attacks. The Pentagon has already deployed an X-Band radar to Israel to support missile defense interceptors. In addition, the U.S. should make preparations to deploy or transfer to Israel the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system and sea- or land-based versions of the Standard Missile-3 interceptors. U.S. Navy Aegis-class warships should be deployed to protect Israel and other threatened U.S. allies against a possible Iranian ballistic missile attack. The Obama Administration should also offer to further deploy land- or sea-based missile defense systems in the greater Persian Gulf area with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council—the alliance formed in 1981 by Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to provide collective defense against Iran and other threats.
  • Hold more frequent missile defense exercises with Israel and other nations. The Juniper Cobra joint missile defense exercises conducted with Israel in 2009, for example, involved up to 2,000 personnel and some 17 U.S. Navy warships that simulated a joint defense against a missile attack on Israel from all directions. Such exercises provide valuable hands-on experience necessary to maintaining an effective overall missile defense system.
  • Enhance deterrence against Iranian attacks. To deter Iran from following through on its threats to attack American targets in response to an Israeli preventive attack, the Obama Administration should make it clear to Tehran beforehand that such attacks would make a bad situation much worse for the regime. Since the Islamist dictatorship’s highest priority is its continued domination of Iran, Washington should privately warn the Supreme Leader that if the Ahmadinejad regime launches attacks against U.S. targets, the U.S. would respond with devastating strikes against not only Iran’s military and nuclear targets but regime leaders and the institutions that keep the regime in power—particularly the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence agencies, and internal security forces.
  • Warn Tehran that if it takes action to disrupt Arab oil production in the Persian Gulf or attacks American targets, the U.S. would prevent any Iranian oil from being exported through a naval blockade. Communicating this ahead of time could help to deter Iran, as the loss of oil income would be a major blow that would threaten the survival of the regime.

If an Attack Occurs

  • Respond robustly to any Iranian military or terrorist attack against American targets. If Tehran attacks the U.S. people or property, then Washington should respond in a forceful way that leaves Iran in a much worse situation. The Pentagon should activate contingency plans for air strikes against Revolutionary Guard bases, ballistic missile production and launch facilities, air bases, naval bases, and Iran’s nuclear weapons program infrastructure. If Iran persists, then the U.S. and its allies should launch air strikes on Iran’s top leaders and impose a naval blockade on Iran’s oil exports. No Iranian regime could survive long without oil export revenues, which furnish the bulk of Iran’s government income.
  • Defend against and attack Hezbollah and other Iranian terrorist surrogates. Tehran is likely to use Hezbollah to attack American targets around the world and possibly inside the U.S. The Pentagon should target Hezbollah bases and leaders and cooperate with other U.S. government agencies and U.S. allies to uproot Hezbollah drug smuggling, money laundering, and other fundraising activities. Tehran should also be clearly warned that it will be held responsible for any surrogate terrorist attacks.
  • Veto any Security Council resolution that does not acknowledge Iran’s provocations and continued defiance of U.N. resolutions. The Ahmadinejad regime has frequently stoked tensions with Israel by threatening to “erase Israel from the page of history” and a constant stream of other threats that are tantamount to incitement for genocide. Ahmadinejad’s denial of the Holocaust while building weapons for another possible holocaust was unwisely provocative as well. Israel, whose unofficial motto is “Never again,” is especially sensitive to such bellicose rhetoric, particularly when it is backed up with concrete signs that Tehran is developing a nuclear capability and the missiles to deliver it. Washington should point out to members of the Security Council that are critical of the veto that the U.N.’s weak and ineffective response to Iran’s nuclear program helped to sow the seeds of conflict with Israel.

Be Prepared

The U.S. should stand shoulder to shoulder with Israel in confronting Iran’s growing nuclear menace. If Jerusalem decides to exercise its right of self-defense, then the U.S. and its allies should support that decision, not condemn it. The brutal dictatorship in Tehran has been given ample warning that its longstanding violations of its legal obligations under international treaties will have a progressively heavy cost, yet it defiantly continues to enrich uranium, issue threats, and order terrorist attacks, including one plot to bomb a restaurant in Washington, D.C. If Iran is willing to risk such an attack before it gains nuclear weapons, what threats is it likely to pose after it attains nuclear weapons? The U.S. and its allies cannot afford to find out.

James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, and James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is Deputy Director of the Davis Institute and Director of the Allison Center at The Heritage Foundation.

Majority of U.S. Voters Advocate Military Strike on Iran, Concerned About Potential Terrorist Attack

February 6, 2012

Majority of U.S. Voters Advocate Military Strike on Iran, Concerned About Potential Terrorist Attack – International Business Times.

By Ashley Portero

Almost half of American voters think the U.S. should be willing to use military force to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, while even more said they were concerned Iran-backed terrorist attack against the U.S., according to a new poll from The Hill.

The results, based on a nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters, found that 49 percent of Americans said the U.S. should use military force to stop Iran from developing or acquiring a nuclear weapon, compared to 31 percent who said military force should not be used and a significant 20 percent who said they were not sure.

In the poll, 49 percent of respondents said they opposed cutting military spending in order to balance the federal budget, indicating that U.S. security is a top issue for many prospective voters. However, the Middle East region seems to be the main point of concern, as 52 percent of respondents also the U.S. military presence in Europe and Korea should be either reduced or eliminated. Thirty-six percent said those forces should be retained and 5 percent said they should be increased.

Meanwhile, 62 percent of likely voters said they were somewhat or very concerned about Iran making a terrorist strike in the U.S.

Iran has become a hot-button issue this election cycle and tension between the U.S. and Tehran thicken. Although Iranian officials deny pursuing nuclear weapons, U.S. actions indicate the claim is far from believable. In January two Democratic senators introduced legislation that would impose further economic sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, aiming to cut off funding that could directed toward nuclear weapon development.

The package comes on the heels of new embargoes by European nations, as well as banking sanctions President Barack Obama signed into law on Dec. 31.

Iran Still Threatens Strait of Hormus Action

In response, the Iranian government has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil passageway in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. has said the move would be crossing a “red line” of provocation that some officials say is tantamount to an act of war.

In his recent State of the Union address, President Obama stressed that the U.S. is committed to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

“Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal,” the president said. “But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.”

Those running for the Republican presidential nomination have taken a hard-line stance against Iran, advocating an immediate military response if sanctions fail. The candidates have criticized Obama’s diplomatic efforts, saying his efforts to negotiate with Iran are a sign of weakness.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, who argues for rolling back the nation’s military commitments overseas, has warned that starting a new military conflict with Iran could be disastrous. Unlike his rivals, he does not believe the country is a threat to U.S. national security.

Obama told NBC News over the weekend that Washington is cooperating closely with Israel over the Iranian nuclear issue, but said Israel has not settled on a specific course of action. However, the  president said the U.S. will do everything in its power to protect Israel, a long-time US. Ally, from the threat of a nuclear Iran.

“My number one priority continues to be the security of the United States. But also, the security of Israel. And we’re going to make sure that we work in lockstep, as we proceed to try to solve this — hopefully diplomatically. [But] I don’t think Israel has made a decision on what they need to do,” he said.

NOW Lebanon -New Opinion: Calling in favors

February 6, 2012

Lebanon news – NOW Lebanon -New Opinion: Calling in favors.

Flames rise from the fuel tanks at Beirut International Airport after an Israeli strike during the July War. Hezbollah needs to tell the Lebanese if it would fight Israel again were the Jewish State to attack Iran. (AFP photo)
As the eyes of the international community fall on a Syria that continues to spiral out of control, there are other rumors—founded or unfounded, it remains to be seen—that the region may be heading for another sideshow conflict in the shape of a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. While such an event has been predicted for many years now, it would be a move of breathtaking silliness, should the Israelis actually carry it out, not least because, according to military analysts, it probably wouldn’t achieve its military aims; it would only foment greater regional instability, perhaps even offering a lifeline to the embattled Assad regime in Damascus. We are also in an American election year, and the last thing Israel’s main sponsor wants is a war as it heads to the polls.

Another side effect, a scenario on which almost everyone is agreed, is that an Israeli strike would draw an immediate military response from Iran’s regional proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, with the latter expected to open up a front on Israel’s northern border. This in turn, we can safely assume, would draw an uncompromising response from the Israelis who, having been humiliated in the 2006 summer war, have made it clear that in the next “round” of fighting the gloves will come off, and the Lebanese government, now effectively run by Hezbollah, will, unlike in 2006, be held responsible for the act of aggression. Back then, with over 1,000 dead, 1 million displaced and billions of dollars in damage, the war was, in the famous words of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, a “divine victory.” One shudders at the prospect of a reversal.

But that is neither here nor there. In 2006 it was Hezbollah, not the government, that dragged Lebanon—wittingly or unwittingly—into war, something that is often overlooked by the hysteria surrounding Israel’s clearly disproportionate response to the cross-border raid that triggered the conflict. The incident was a terrifying reality-check that the nation was hostage to the military ambitions of one party and there was very little we could, or can, do about it.

Since then, and since the passing of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, a ruling that called for the eventual disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, Hezbollah has made no secret of its ambitions to rearm in anticipation of a rematch. Party officials speak quite candidly, in private at least, that such an eventuality is not a case of “if” but “when.” The Israelis hold a similar sentiment. Both sides expect any outcome to be decisive, verging on the existential.

It is a reality of political life in Lebanon today that Hezbollah will clearly never disarm simply because at least half the Lebanese feel that having a militia that operates outside the authority of the state is essentially a bad thing. We can only hope that, away from the fiery martial rhetoric, the Party of God will think long and hard before subjecting its constituents, let alone the rest of the country, to another terrifying war.

But the Iranian scenario throws up new calculations. Will an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities prompt Tehran to call in arguably the biggest favor of all? Given what’s at stake, it would be nice if Hezbollah told the Lebanese what it would do should such a scenario come to pass. Will it stand by its claim that it is essentially a nationalist Shia party with an Iranian-inspired ideology and promise that a military action over 2,000 kilometers to the east will not drag it into a war that might very well catapult Lebanon back to the stone age? Will it promise restraint? We have a right to know.

The likelihood is that Hezbollah will not allow itself to be cornered on such an issue. If pushed, the party would no doubt baffle us with half-speak, reinforce the total commitment of the Resistance to protecting Lebanese sovereignty and question the patriotism of anyone who thought otherwise. In the meantime, we continue to live in the knowledge that we could be taken to a war not of our making by a man who holds no public office and who takes his orders from the Iranian president.