Archive for February 2012

Israel will have to attack Iran in 2012

February 10, 2012

Israel will have to attack Iran in 2012.

Obama isn’t listening, but Americans should be.

Iran and its Islamic rulers are consumed by hatred of Jews, hatred of Israel and a diabolical desire to annihilate both, all in the name of Islam. A strategy specialist to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei named Alireza Forghani has just written a document laying out the legal and religious reasons why Iran is required by Islam to attack and annihilate Israel, to remove the country from the face of the earth and kill all the Jews living there. The document was published on a website with close ties to the Ayatollah, which means that the Government of Iran endorses its conclusions and will work, is working, to carry them out.

This kind of rhetoric is nothing new in Iran. In the name of Islam, the Iranians want nothing more than to obliterate Israel and murder all the Jews there and the publication of this document is just the latest instance of them telling the world their intentions. Once they possess nuclear weapons they will have the ability to carry them out and there is no doubt whatsoever that they will try and do exactly that, which is why Israel must attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons development facilities in 2012 at the latest. Iran is getting closer and closer to becoming a nuclear power and if the Israeli’s wait much longer it may be to late to prevent it from becoming one.

That would make an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel and a nuclear war in the Middle East and beyond a dead certainty. And make no mistake, the Israelis will have to do it soon and will do it soon. They’ll have to because no one else will, least of all the feckless Americans under President Obama. Nothing else will keep nuclear weapons out of the Iranian’s hands and the Israelis know it, even if Obama doesn’t. Or refuses to admit it. Or doesn’t care. Or doesn’t have the courage and sense to act militarily, even though it is patently in the best interests of the United States as well as Israel.

According to the document “In the name of Allah, Iran must attack Israel by 2014.” That means with nuclear weapons, since it is already attacking Israel in myriad ways on any number of fronts and has been for some time. If the Iranians can attack Israel with nuclear weapons before 2014 they will do so and unless Israel attacks them in 2012 they may very well attack long before then.

Americans shouldn’t kid themselves either. The Iranians hate them almost as much as they hate Jews and Israelis and America and Americans are firmly in their sites too. Just like it is doing with Israel Iran is already attacking the United States in myriad ways on a wide variety of fronts, including in the American homeland, and there is no doubt at all that Iran’s nuclear weapons will be used against the U.S. in due course if Iran is successful in developing them…the rhetoric tells Americans that and so does Iran’s actions and behaviour. The United States is after all the Great Satan and it is unquestionably on Iran’s hit list after Israel, the Little Satan.

All in the name of Islam. In fact, if Americans want to know what’s in store for them if Iran isn’t stopped all they need do is type in Iran must attack Israel by 2014, download the document and substitute Americans wherever they see Jews or Israelis and America or the United States wherever they see Israel.

First Israel, then the United States, or maybe even both at the same time Allah willing. Obama isn’t listening, but Americans should be.

Jerry Philipson
Most recent columns

Jerry is a writer for Canada Free Press and can be reached at: philipsonjerry@yahoo.ca

49% of Americans in favor of Iran strike

February 10, 2012

49% of Americans in favor of Iran strike – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Recent poll by Pulse Opinion Research shows half of American public in favor of strike on Islamic Republic

Yitzhak Benhorin

Nearly half of American voters think the United States should use military force to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, according to a poll conducted for The Hill newspaper, which covers events relating to the Congress.

According to the poll, 49% of respondents said military force should be used, while 31% said it should not and 20% were not sure.

In addition, 62% of respondents said they were somewhat or very concerned about Iran launching a terror attack against the United States, while 37% said they were not very concerned or not at all concerned.

Although the Iranians deny pursuing nuclear weapons, few outside of Tehran believe the claim, and how to prevent such a scenario has become a hot election-year issue. Previous polls also showed the majority of Americans are in favor of a strike on Iran.

US President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address: “Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.”

Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney blamed Obama for failing to confront Iran. “A nuclear-armed Iran is not only an Israeli problem, it is a problem for the United States and all the decent countries of the world,” said Romney. Republican contender Rick Santorum said that if he’s elected president, he would bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities unless they were opened up for international arms inspectors.

The Holocaust is a good reason, not a bad excuse, for attacking Iran

February 10, 2012

West of Eden-Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

The expectation that Israel should ignore the lessons learned from the destruction of European Jewry is irrational.

By Chemi Shalev

I can well understand people who dismiss comparisons between Adolf Hitler and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 1939 Germany and 2012 Iran or the modern and well-armed state of Israel and defenseless Holocaust-era European Jewry. The differences are so vast that there is no wonder that many people find them ludicrous.

I can also empathize with those who suspect that supporters of an attack on Iran are cynically conjuring images of the Holocaust in order to advance their cause. In recent years, any tin pot dictator who threatens Israel is Hitler’s successor, any critic of Israeli policies is a latter-day Goebbels and every call to negotiate on the basis of the 1967 borders is but a station on the road to the Final Solution.

Ahmadinejad nuclear - AP - 2008 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at a ceremony in Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz in 2008.
Photo by: AP

And when zealot settlers call IDF soldiers Nazis and their commanders Eichmanns, when left-wing radicals describe the Israeli army as SS stormtroopers and Gaza as Dachau, when one of the most popular characters on Seinfeld is a Soup Nazi and when Adolf Hitler himself becomes the darling of YouTube spoofs from the movie Downfall – one can hardly blame people for refusing to take Holocaust analogies seriously.

But even if the legacy of the Holocaust has been crassly trivialized and cynically exploited by politicians in Israel and in America, it is still a towering presence in the lives of most Israelis and Jews, individually, and of Israel and the Diaspora, collectively. It is not some distant memory, it is not a historical tragedy, it is not something that happened to our forefathers once upon a time in a strange and distant land, it is not a ruse, not a cover, not a pretext and not an excuse. Even as the last of the survivors are rapidly disappearing from our lives and even if their children and grandchildren are living secure and comfortable lives and even if Israel has the most powerful army in the Middle East and a reported nuclear arsenal that can destroy any combination of its enemies seven times over, memories of the Holocaust are omnipresent. And 70 years after the fact, it is the main prism through which I and most other Jews view the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran and the echo chamber where the arguments for and against a military attack are heard.

My mother, of blessed memory, never forgave her parents for refusing to leave Prague after the Nazi occupation in 1939, even though they stood a good chance of securing an exit visa. And she never forgave herself for not insisting.

It’s only bluster, they told her, a political posture He wouldn’t dare. The world won’t allow it. The Germans would never agree. The proud and lofty civilization of Goethe, Schiller and Beethoven cannot harbor such evil. Herr Hitler might be a ruthless and cunning and Jew-hating politician, but he’s not crazy. He knows his limitations. He isn’t suicidal. He wouldn’t push his country over the edge. All we need do is wait and this too shall pass. You go ahead, they told her, but we will stay here. Everything will be all right.

My grandfather died of typhus in October 1943 in the Terezin concentration camp in Czechoslovakia and my grandmother was gassed to death in Auschwitz in late 1944, when the Germans had already lost the war but were insanely insisting on using their last remaining resources to murder as many Jews as they possibly could. And when the Allies were asked to bomb the camps or the rail lines feeding them, but they couldn’t be bothered

. They were otherwise engaged.

So after listening carefully to the logical analyses of experts about the internal rivalries between the Ayatollahs, the limitations of the Iranian regime, its need to divert attention away from the deteriorating economy, the growing internal opposition, the prospects for regime change, the 3000-year-old civilization that would never be risked, the hidden rationality of the irrational bluster, the fact that the Iranian leadership is not suicidal and would not endanger its own existence and the deterrent power of Israel’s powerful army and nuclear arsenal – after all this, I still believe, as do many Jews and Israelis, that a nuclear Iran is the worst possible option and that anything and everything that can be done should be done to prevent it.

And though I freely admit that this attitude is heavily influenced by the trauma and the legacy of the Holocaust, I reject the notion that this is irrational. In fact, the opposite is true: it is the expectation that when they come to make a decision about Iran, Israelis should ignore their experience, disregard their memories and forget the lessons that they learned from the destruction of European Jewry that is itself irrational. Jews know better than most that the unthinkable should never be dismissed, that the monstrous is often a viable option and that inside any supposedly cool and calculating anti-Semite there may lurk a murderous barbarian just waiting for an opportunity.

After all, what differentiated Hitler from all the others was neither his motivation nor his intention to exterminate the Jews, but the fact that he had the means and the opportunity to do so. When Iran has a bomb and a missile to carry it, it too will have the instrument of Israel’s destruction at its disposal. No rational leader of modern-day Israel – which, despite the cliché, rose out of the ashes of the Holocaust – can ever allow such a thing to happen.

Other than “Israel-lasters” – that is people who have Israel’s worst interests at heart and who view American foreign policy through the narrow prism of weakening Israel as much as possible – most opponents of a military confrontation with Iran, either American or Israeli, are genuinely convinced that it would do more harm than good, would damage rather than enhance America’s interests in the Middle East and would entail horrific consequences for Israel and the region as a whole. And who are convinced that Iran will never attack Israel with a nuclear weapon because the regime, after all, is completely rational and intent on surviving.

On my side of the argument, I admit, there are some gung-ho Republican presidential candidates who sometimes seem absolutely gleeful in promoting an attack on Iran – remember John McCain’s 2008 rendition of “bomb, bomb, Iran” to the tune of the Beach Boys’ Barbara Ann? – as well as run-of-the-mill rabid right wingers who disdain diplomacy, don’t believe in sanctions, think that liberals and Europeans are weak-kneed appeasers, view all Muslims – including Hussein Obama, of course – as collaborating with Iran against Western civilization and would like nothing better than to see clouds of smoke, preferably mushroom-shaped, rising over Tehran.

But most Israelis, from both sides of the political spectrum, would rather have Iran cave in to sanctions or be defeated in the clandestine war that is being waged against it. They are perplexed by the opposition of some Israeli security chiefs to an attack and absolutely terrified of its aftermath and its fallout and the danger that these may prove no less destructive than if Iran had built the bomb.

Nonetheless, when push comes to shove, when all the other options have been exhausted, when there is no other avenue left, when it’s yes or no, do or die, kill or be killed – then I think that most Israelis and Jews, including myself, will support a military attack. And the only way to prevent such a risky and dangerous development is to stop the Iranian nuclear problem dead in its tracks, and to stop it now.

Otherwise, in all likelihood, with grave doubts and terrible misgivings, the planes, will be dispatched, the missiles will be launched, the troops will be landed and the bombs will then explode. Because the phrase “Never Again”, however grossly misused and cynically manipulated throughout the years, was actually meant for this very moment.

Rick Santorum: Obama helping Iran obtain nuclear weapons

February 10, 2012

Rick Santorum: Obama helping Iran obtain nuclear weapons – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Republican presidential hopeful, coming off a 3-state primary sweep, says American President ‘throwing Israel under the bus’ over U.S. dependency on oil.

By The Associated Press

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum on Thursday accused President Barack Obama of actively seeking ways to allow Iran to gain a nuclear weapon and suggested that the administration had betrayed Israel by publicly disclosing what may be a plan to attack the Muslim nation.

Santorum drew connections between the administration’s opposition to the Keystone pipeline project, which would bring oil from Canada to U.S. refineries, and American dependency on foreign oil and U.S.-Israel relations.

Rick Santorum - AP - 9.2.2012 Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum speaking during a rally, Thursday, Feb. 9, 2012, in Oklahoma City.
Photo by: AP

“We’re throwing Israel under the bus because we know we’re going to be dependent upon OPEC,” Santorum said during a speech in Oklahoma City. “We’re going to say, ‘Oh, Iran, we don’t want you to get a nuclear weapon — wink, wink, nod, nod — go ahead, just give us your oil.’ Folks, the president of the United States is selling the economic security of the United States down the river right now.”

The U.S. doesn’t purchase oil from Iran but its allies do. Pulling Iranian oil from the world market would wreak havoc on oil prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Santorum later told CNN that Obama’s actions support the view that the president was choosing Iran over Israel. He accused Defense Secretary Leon Panetta of divulging sensitive information about Israel’s plans to strike Iran and then invited scorn upon the Jewish state from the rest of the world.

Panetta is not on the record saying that the U.S. has concluded that Israel plans to strike Iran. The Washington Post published a column last week saying that Panetta has concluded that an Israeli strike is likely before summer, but Panetta has declined to comment on that assertion.

Santorum told CNN: “The president fought tooth and nail against putting sanctions on Iran and only capitulated at the end. This is a president who is not standing by our allies, is trying to appease, trying to find a way to allow — clearly to allow Iran to get this nuclear weapon. He’s doing absolutely nothing in a consequential way to make sure that they do not get this weapon.”

Iran has maintained that it is not seeking to build a nuclear weapon but refuses to capitulate to demands that it abandon controversial elements of its nuclear program. It argues that sanctions are a form of aggression.

The Obama administration has rejected Republican charges that it has been weak in its response to Iran and points to sanctions and diplomacy as a cautious but effective way of dealing with a situation that could upend oil markets and the world economy.

The Obama campaign responded to Santorum’s remarks by reiterating its position that more pressure than ever has been placed on Iran and that the president has led the international effort to sanction Iran.

Obama said this week that Israel had not decided whether to launch a strike against Iran and that he hoped the nuclear standoff could be resolved through diplomacy. However, the president also said the U.S. has planned a range of options and was prepared to exercise them if necessary.

Economic coercion by the U.S. and its allies appears more likely than a military strike. Besides new U.S. sanctions on Iran’s central bank, Europe has approved its first embargo against Iranian oil.

While campaigning in strongly conservative Oklahoma, Santorum defended himself against criticism from rival Mitt Romney over of his backing of home-state projects during his career in Congress, saying that some so-called earmarks were necessary for defense or health programs.

Romney has been challenging Santorum’s commitment to fiscal discipline by pointing out that Santorum sought funding for home-state projects when he represented Pennsylvania in Congress. The former Massachusetts governor has stepped up his criticism of Santorum since the former senator’s three-state sweep in Tuesday’s nomination elections.

The taint of earmarks, or spending that lawmakers direct to favorite projects, still dogs candidates courting the fiscally conservative tea party movement. Santorum argued that earmarks were a legislative check on the executive branch.

“There are good earmarks and bad earmarks,” he told reporters after a speech.

Santorum specifically defended targeted spending for the V-22 Osprey helicopter and a human tissue medical program in Pittsburgh. He declined to identify any earmarks he regretted.

On Wednesday, Romney said Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich belong to a category of Republicans who “spent too much money, borrowed too much money, earmarked too much.”

Santorum said Thursday that he fought to end earmarks amid concerns that lawmakers were abusing the practice. He tried to turn the issue back on Romney, who is having trouble winning over the conservative voters that Santorum, himself a conservative, is appealing to.

Santorum said Massachusetts benefited from earmarked money from Washington when Romney was governor.

“Gov. Romney’s campaign has been about serially tearing down but not offering any kind of vision about what he wants to do for this country,” Santorum said. “He’s not going out and talking about his record as governor of Massachusetts. He hides from that record.”
Romney, who had no public appearances Thursday, issued a statement urging Congress to ban earmarks permanently.

44% of Americans support strike against Iran

February 10, 2012

44% of Americans support strike … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By NIV ELIS 02/10/2012 15:58
New YouGov poll shows plurality of Americans support attack on Iranian nuclear facilities; Europeans, Middle Easterners more wary.

US Air Force F-15E releases a GBU-28 Bunker Buster By REUTERS/Handout

Americans are more likely than Europeans or Middle Easterners to support a strike against Iran, according to a YouGov poll released this week.

In the United States, 44 percent of those polled supported bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, whereas only 23% of British, 20% of Middle Easterners, and 18% of Germans supported such a move.

Talk of a possible strike by American or Israeli forces raised tension with the Islamic Republic in recent weeks, as the US and EU imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian oil exports and its central bank.

Iran has also been working furiously to transfer its nuclear facilities to underground sites, which even the most advanced US bunker busters reportedly cannot penetrate.

Iranian television quoted senior Revolutionary Guard official Brig.-Gen. Masoud Jazayeri this week as saying that threats of a strike lacked credibility, as the US and Israel were aware of Tehran’s counterattack abilities.

The survey also found that in the Middle East – defined as the Gulf states, North Africa and the Levant – Iran sanctions enjoyed the support of 44% of the population, still only a fraction of the 70% support seen in the United States.

Russia accuses West of arming Syrian rebels

February 10, 2012

Russia accuses West of arming Syrian rebel… JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS 02/10/2012 17:51
Without specifying which nations he is accusing, Moscow’s deputy FM says Western countries are arming and advising rebels, says Russia will take “drastic measures” if West keeps pushing issue at UN Security Council.

Free Syria Army member with an assault rifle By REUTERS/Amateur video

MOSCOW – Russia said on Friday that the West was stoking the conflict in Syria by sending weapons to the opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

In an attempt to deflect criticism of Russia for blocking a UN Security Council resolution urging Assad to give up power, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Western states were stirring up trouble in Syria, where Assad has pursued a violent crackdown since March on protests against his 11-year rule.

“Western states inciting Syrian opposition to uncompromising actions, as well as those sending arms to them, giving them advice and direction, are participating in the process of fomenting the crisis,” Itar-Tass news agency quoted Ryabkov as saying.

He did not specify which nations were arming Syrian rebels.

On Sunday Russia and China vetoed a Western-Arab draft UN resolution that called on Assad to quit. That drew US and European criticism which Russia dismissed as hysterical.

Ryabkov, speaking on a visit to Colombia, said Russia would take “drastic measures” if the West kept trying to intervene in Syria’s internal affairs through the Security Council.

“The UN council is not a tool for intervention in internal affairs and is not the agency to decide which government is to be next in one country or another,” Ryabkov said. “If our foreign partners don’t understand that, we will have to use drastic measures to return them to real grounds.”

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who is almost certain to win a presidential election in March, warned the West not to meddle in the affairs of Syria, or those of Russia.

Russia’s lower house of parliament adopted a statement on Friday condemning the West for “intervening in other states’ affairs and imposing outside decisions on them”.

Some lawmakers in the assembly, which is controlled by Putin’s ruling party, called for firmer resistance to the West.

“There is criticism in the Duma that Russia’s position on Syria is not strong enough. They say Russia should press its point harder,” Alexei Pushkov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs, told Reuters.

Arrow missile defense system successfully tested

February 10, 2012

Arrow missile defense system successfully test… JPost – Defense.

By YAAKOV KATZ 02/10/2012 13:48
Officials say the test demonstrates Israel’s ability to defend itself in a future war.

The Arrow missile defense sytem. By Ho New / Reuters

In the face of Iran’s continued pursuit of a nuclear weapon, Israel tested the Arrow missile defense system on Friday in what officials said was a successful demonstration of the country’s ability to defend itself in a future war.

At 11 a.m., an F-15 Israel Air Force (IAF) fighter jet launched a Blue Sparrow, a missile developed by Raphael to impersonate long-range Iranian ballistic missiles.

The Arrow’s radar and detection system, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) detected the incoming “enemy” missile and tracked it together with the US X-Band radar deployed in the Negev dessert.

The Arrow interceptor was not launched during the test, in line with the parameters of the drill, which was carried out to test the system’s overall capabilities in detecting and tracking incoming enemy targets.

The Defense Ministry said the test was not connected to current events and was part of the Arrow systems annual training regiment, but that it was a significant milestone, as it completes the development of the Block 4 stage of the interceptor, which will be delivered to the IAF soon.

The Arrow serves as Israel’s upper-tier missile defense system. Additional layers include the Iron Dome for short-range rockets and the soon-to-be-deployed David’s Sling, which is being developed to defend against medium range rockets.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Friday praised all those that took part in the successful test. “This is an important technological achievement and an important step in Israel’s progress in the field of defense… the successful test demonstrated again, the high technical capabilities of engineers, technicians and employees of the Israeli security industry that participated in the test,” he said.

In October or November, Israel and the United States are expected to hold a joint Austere Challenge missile-defense exercise.

Senior American military officers from the European Command are scheduled to arrive in Israel later this month to finalize plans to hold the exercise, which has been billed as the largest joint missile-defense exercise in the countries’ history.

The drill was initially scheduled for April and was supposed to see the deployment of thousands of US troops and various sophisticated American military equipment in Israel.Jpost.com staff contributed to this report

Israeli Deterrence and Dolphins

February 10, 2012

Articles: Israeli Deterrence and Dolphins.

https://i0.wp.com/www.dazebaonews.it/media/k2/items/cache/30cb4a28d80a3dc0f262c225258b65a8_XL.jpg

By Jonathan F. Keiler

Last week, Germany agreed to sell Israel a sixth Dolphin-class submarine.  Israel already has three of these capable submarines in service.  Two others were either quietly delivered last year, or soon will be — sources differ. 

While the Dolphins have numerous conventional military applications, in reality, Israel appears to be in the process of creating the world’s first nuclear counter-strike force based on small, conventionally powered submarines armed with long range-cruise missiles.  While Israel has never officially admitted to possessing nuclear weapons and seems inclined to maintain its long-held posture of nuclear ambiguity, there is little doubt that she does indeed posses nuclear weapons and most likely has had weapon assembly capabilities since at least the late 1960s.

Iran has clearly emerged as Israel’s chief regional antagonist.  Iran’s single-minded drive to acquire nuclear weapons — and its threats to use them once deployed — arguably presents the most serious strategic threat to Israel since the state’s founding struggles in 1948.

This threat has led to almost endless conjecture regarding an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear installations.  Israel’s successful attack on a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007, the failure of international sanctions to stem the Iranian program, and elaborate Israeli maneuvers that appear directed toward Iran have ratcheted up this speculation to a near-fever pitch.  Yet to this day, as Iran inches ever closer to becoming a nuclear power, Israel has kept its sword sheathed. 

Over the past decades, Israel has acquired conventional weapons systems with Iran in mind.  The four most significant are F-15I and F-16I long-range strike fighters, the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system, and the Dolphin submarine.

The Dolphin is a German-manufactured diesel electric submarine.  It has impressive submerged mission capability, sophisticated sensors, and advanced torpedoes.  Upon the initial Dolphin sale, some observers focused on the installation of extra large 650mm torpedo tubes, in addition to standard 533mm tubes.  While the larger tubes can be used for swimmer delivery vehicles, there is much speculation that their purpose is to deploy a new type of Israeli-made cruise missile.  

The Israelis have long been interested in missiles of this type, having unsuccessfully sought to purchase the American Tomahawk (which could also be launched from a 533mm tube).  The top candidate for making use of the 650mm tube is an extended-range version of the Israeli-designed Popeye Turbo missile.  It would be a modification of the long-serving Popeye air-launched cruise missile, a weapon used by both the U.S. and Israel. 

In 2000, Israel reportedly carried out tests in the Indian Ocean with cruise missiles of 1,500-km range.  Whether the Popeye Turbo variant or another secret missile, this would give Israel a long-range cruise missile capability, similar to a Tomahawk, capable of taking out large above-ground targets, like cooling towers, transformers, generators, hardened buildings, and communication facilities.  However, it is unlikely to be capable against deeply buried targets (as are much of Iran’s nuclear facilities).  Also, given the limited size and storage capacity of the Dolphin, each sub would be able to launch only a small number of missiles, thus greatly limiting these missiles’ conventional utility against Iran. 

The Dolphin is the most expensive single weapons system in the Israeli arsenal (even with German gifts and contributions to the costs) and cannot be risked absent clear necessity.  Given the peril, and the relatively limited power of the Dolphins in conventional land attack, it seems unlikely that any Dolphins would be used for this purpose against Iran.  Deployment to the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf during a surprise conventional strike on Iran would be very hazardous.  So Dolphins in such an event would most likely be used to gather intelligence, deploy commandos, or strike at Iranian naval vessels — not hit Iranian nuclear facilities or land defenses.  

Furthermore, while speculation regarding the Dolphins has persistently focused on Iran, historically, Israel’s primary naval focus has been on the Mediterranean.  Israel has never fought a major sea engagement in its southern waters, and its naval deployments have historically been heavily weighted toward the Mediterranean.  Israel’s primary trading partner is Europe, and the country’s major ports, industry, and population centers are located on its long, vulnerable Mediterranean coastline.  Although the causus belli of both the 1956 and 1967 Arab-Israeli wars was, at least in part, Egyptian blockades of the Gulf of Aqaba, Israel relied on ground and air forces in both conflicts to break the blockades.  

Until the peace treaty with Egypt (1979) and the reopening of the Suez Canal to international and Israeli shipping, Israel was unable to deploy major warships to the Red Sea other than by sailing around Africa.  Shortly after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Israel deployed two Saar-class missile boats to Sharm el-Sheikh (then still in Israeli hands) by sending them around Africa, presumably to ward off another blockade at Bab el Mandeb [i].  But since the Suez Canal’s reopening, Israel has been reluctant to deploy naval assets through the Canal, or maintain them in the Red Sea [ii].  Israel in 2009, evidently with Egyptian blessing, ostentatiously deployed a Dolphin through Suez and back, for maneuvers and presumably as a warning to Iran.  But there appears to be no permanent basing for the Dolphins in Eilat. 

Thus, the Dolphins are likely part of the Israeli arsenal for two reasons, and a conventional preemptive strike against Iran is simply not one of them.  First, the Dolphins offer important conventional operational capabilities against Israel’s enemies and rivals in the Mediterranean.  At present, Syria, Hezb’allah, and Hamas present the only immediate hostile naval threats to Israel, but things can change rapidly in the Middle East.  Israel faces two dangerous and powerful naval rivals in the form of Egypt and Turkey. 

The second reason Israel has Dolphins is almost certainly on account of nuclear deterrence.  If there was much doubt about the Dolphin’s nuclear capabilities, the recent announcement that candidates for service in the IDF sub force must renounce dual citizenship indicates the highly sensitive nature of this assignment.  Israel is a very small country with no defensive interior to speak of, and it would be particularly vulnerable to a nuclear first strike against a relatively short list of targets.  Therefore, a failsafe nuclear deterrent has become an existential aspect of Israeli defense policy. 

Dolphins equipped with the nuclear-armed extended-range Popeye Turbo or another similarly capable cruise missile could maintain deterrence from deep in the Mediterranean.  The distance from the Israeli port of Haifa to Tehran is 1,573 km, about the purported range of the long-range Popeye Turbo.  Haifa to Isfahan (site of one of Iran’s critical nuclear facilities) is about the same distance.  Dolphins sailing off the coast of northern Syria, or southern Turkey (in the vicinity of Cyprus), could launch from somewhat closer range.  Thus, for purposes of nuclear deterrence, there is no need to risk Dolphins in the Arabian Sea or Persian Gulf. 

So why do the Israelis send an occasional Dolphin through Suez?  Deception is one likely reason, as well as concern for Israeli shipping in the Red Sea at Bab el Mandeb, where history shows that Israel is vulnerable to blockade. 

The Iranian regime has threatened Israel with nuclear attack and suggested that the tiny state could not survive a single successful nuclear strike, which might be true.  As the United States appears to be plotting a course that tolerates and seeks to manage a nuclear-capable Iran, this is tremendously worrisome.  It suggests that very soon, an Iranian regime well-equipped with nuclear weapons might speculate that a successful first strike against Israel’s clustered and exposed land-based nuclear facilities is feasible.  The Dolphins, by providing a secure last leg of an Israeli nuclear triad, will help ensure that that never happens.

Hersh Goodman: Attack Iran before it’s too late

February 10, 2012

TheSpec – Israeli author says attack Iran before it’s too late.

Author and journalist Hirsh Goodman speaks in Hamilton Thursday night at Beth Jacob Synagogue.

DDN09GOODMAN. Author and journalist Hirsh Goodman speaks in Hamilton Thursday night at Beth Jacob Synagogue. Gary Yokoyama/The Hamilton Spectator Source: The Hamilton Spectator

Daniel Nolan

February 10, 2012

A prominent Israeli writer is advocating his nation attack Iran’s nuclear development facilities now because the risk is too great after that country builds nuclear weapons.

Hirsh Goodman doesn’t believe sanctions being pushed by Western nations will stop Iran and said something has to be done this year before Iran moves its nuclear work underground.

He said a nuclear Iran, along with a nuclear Pakistan, would plunge the world into “a new cold war, if not a hot one.”

“The minute Iran is nuclear, it’s a whole different game,” Goodman said Thursday night at the Beth Jacob Synagogue in west Hamilton.

“Not because they are going to blow up Israel. They’ve got missiles that can reach the east cost of America, but what happens if the ayatollah (Iran’s supreme leader) wakes up one morning and destroys the Saudi fields and the Kuwaiti oilfields and the West is left with no energy.”

Goodman, 65, is a former defence correspondent for The Jerusalem Post and the founder of The Jerusalem Report. He has written three books, the most recent coming out last year called The Anatomy of Israel’s Survival. He works as a senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

More than 100 came out to the event sponsored by the United Jewish Appeal Federation of Hamilton.

Goodman said he hears the “fear” that if Israel attacks Iran, that nation will essentially make life hell for Israel afterwards. He said the actual assessment is that Iran “can do nothing” to prevent Israel from attacking its four nuclear development facilities, which he believes will put Iran’s nuclear ambitions back 20 years.

“What are they going to do?” he asked. “Not supply the world with oil. If there is terror, we’ll fight it. Iran today has never been weaker than it is right now. Their currency is finished … The country is in internal turmoil.”

He said if an attack is not done “when we can do it,” the only way to do it afterwards is with a tactical nuclear weapon.

“That’s a changed world,” Goodman noted. “No one has used a tactical nuclear weapon since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There’s great benefit to getting it done when you can do it.”

Explosions rock Syrian city of Aleppo, state TV blames ‘terrorist gangs’

February 10, 2012

Explosions rock Syrian city of Aleppo, state TV blames ‘terrorist gangs’.

People gather around the entrance of a damaged building after a car bomb blew up at security sites in Damascus Dec. 23, 2011. (Reuters)

People gather around the entrance of a damaged building after a car bomb blew up at security sites in Damascus Dec. 23, 2011. (Reuters)

Explosions rocked Syria’s second largest city of Aleppo on Friday, state television and activists said, adding that one of the blasts was near a military intelligence building.

Syrian state television reported that 11 people, including soldiers, were killed in two explosions, which It blamed the attack on “armed terrorist gangs.”

The television said one of the blasts targeted a military intelligence center and the other a center for the security forces.

Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told AFP there were three blasts in the northern city, a main commercial hub.

They occurred in the neighborhoods of Sakhur and Marjeh and the Dawar el-Basel roundabout.

Speaking to Al Arabiya by phone from Aleppo, a resident accused the regime of standing behind explosion. The resident, who called himself Abu Obeida, said the blast was first heard near the military intelligence building and about half an hour later white smoke was seen rising from the scene.

He said the building is heavily fortified and would be almost impossible for any group to come near it and carry out attacks.

Aleppo, Syria’s main commercial hub, had been relatively quiet during the 11-month uprising against President Bashar al-Assad but has seen increasing protests and violence in recent weeks.

On Dec. 23, suicide car bombers struck Damascus in what was then the bloodiest violence in the capital since the revolt against Assad began.

At least 44 people were killed then and the government blamed al Qaeda for the attack, which took place one day after the arrival of an Arab League observer mission.

On Jan. 6, a suicide bomber killed 26 people and wounded 63 in Damascus. Syria’s Interior Minister Ibrahim al-Shaar vowed an “iron-fist response” to the attack.

Elsewhere in the violence-torn country, tanks stormed a neighborhood in the flashpoint central city of Homs as soldiers launched a house-to-house sweep of the area to crush regime opponents on Friday, activists said.

“The tanks entered the neighborhood of Inshaat overnight,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

He said troops were still deploying to the area early Friday.

Inshaat is next to the protest hub of Baba Amr in Homs, which has been wilting under a sustained week-long assault by regime forces that has killed more than 400 people, activists say.

Russia on Friday said the Syrian opposition bore full responsibility for the ongoing violence and accused the West of being an “accomplice” that pushed the regime’s opponents into armed conflict.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the ITAR-Tass news agency the opposition’s refusal to enter direct talks with the Syrian government meant it “bears full responsibility for improving the situation,” accusing the West of being “accomplices in the process of inflaming the crisis.”