WarSclerotic

Like Father, Like Son – NYTimes.com.

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

¶ Watching the Syrian Army pummel the Syrian town of Homs to put down the rebellion there against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is the remake of a really bad movie that starred Bashar’s father, Hafez, exactly 30 years ago this month. I know. I saw the original.

¶ It was April 1982 and I had just arrived in Beirut as a reporter for The New York Times. I quickly heard terrifying stories about an uprising that had happened in February in the Syrian town of Hama, led by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Word had it (there were no Internet or cellphones) that then-President Hafez al-Assad had quashed the rebellion by shelling whole Hama neighborhoods, then dynamiting buildings, some with residents still inside. That May, I got a visa to Syria, just as Hama had been reopened. The Syrian regime was “encouraging” Syrians to drive through the broken town and reflect on its meaning. So I just hired a cab and went.

¶ It was stunning. Whole swaths of buildings had, indeed, been destroyed and then professionally steamrolled into parking lots the size of football fields. If you kicked the ground, you’d come up with scraps of clothing, a tattered book, a shoe. Amnesty International estimated that as many as 20,000 people were killed there. I had never seen brutality at that scale, and, in a book I wrote later, I gave it a name: “Hama Rules.”

¶ Hama Rules are no rules at all. You do whatever it takes to stay in power and you don’t just defeat your foes. You bomb them in their homes and then you steamroll them so that their children and their children’s children will never forget and never even dream of challenging you again.

¶ Well, 30 years later, the children of those Syrian children have forgotten. They’ve lost their fear. This time around, though, it is not just the Muslim Brotherhood rebelling in one town. Now it is youths from all over Syria. Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef, the editors of “Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East,” note that more than 100 million individuals between the ages of 15 and 29 live in the Middle East, up from less than 67 million in 1990, and much of what their governments have promised them by way of jobs, marriage opportunities, apartments and a voice in their own future have not materialized. This is what sparked all these volcanic uprisings.

¶ But Syria is not Norway. The quest for democracy is not the only drama playing out there. Syria is also a highly tribalized and sectarian-divided country. Its Shiite-leaning Alawite minority — led by the Assads and comprising 12 percent of the population — dominates the government, army and security services. Sunni-Muslim Syrian Arabs are 75 percent, Christians 10 percent and Druze, Kurds and others make up the rest. While Syria’s uprising started as a nonsectarian, nonviolent expression of the desire by young Syrians to be treated as citizens, when Assad responded with Hama Rules it triggered a violent response. This has brought out the sectarian fears on all sides. Now it is hard to tell where the democratic aspirations of the rebellion stop and the sectarian aspirations — the raw desire by Syria’s Sunni majority to oust the Alawite minority — begin.

¶ As a result, most Alawites are rallying to Assad, as are some Sunnis who have benefitted from his regime, particularly in Aleppo and Damascus, the capital. These pro-regime Alawites and Sunnis see the chaos and soccer riots in Egypt and say to themselves: “Assad or chaos? We’ll take Assad.” What to do? Ideally we’d like a peaceful transition from Assad’s one-man rule to more pluralistic consensual politics. We do not want a civil war in Syria, which could destabilize the whole region. Remember: Egypt implodes, Libya implodes, Tunisia implodes. … Syria explodes.

¶ I don’t know what is sufficient to persuade Assad to cede power to a national unity government, but I know what is necessary: He has to lose the two most important props holding up his regime. One is the support of China, Iran and Russia. There, the U.N., the European Union and Arab and Muslim countries need to keep calling out Moscow, Beijing and Iran for supporting Assad’s mass killing of unarmed civilians. China, Iran and Russia don’t care about U.S. condemnation, but they might care about the rest of the world’s.

¶ The other prop, though, can only be removed by Syrians. The still-fractious Syrian opposition has to find a way to unify itself and also reach out to the Alawites, as well as Syria’s Christian and Sunni merchants, and guarantee that their interests will be secure in a new Syria so they give up on Assad. Without that, nothing good will come of any of this. The more the Syrian opposition demonstrates to itself, to all Syrians and to the world that it is about creating a pluralistic Syria — where everyone is treated as an equal citizen — the weaker Assad will be and the more likely that a post-Assad Syria will have chance at stability and decency. The more the Syrian opposition remains fractured, the stronger Assad will be, the more some Syrians will cling to him out of fear of chaos and the more he will get away with Hama Rules.

The Enablers – NYTimes.com.

China, Russia and India see themselves as global leaders. So why have they been enabling two dangerous regimes, Syria and Iran, to continue on destructive paths?

On Tuesday, President Bashar al-Assad showed again his willingness to use brutal force to crush the pro-democracy opposition. He brushed aside stinging criticism by Navi Pillay, the top United Nations human rights official, and resumed the shelling of the city of Homs. The government has barred independent reporting for most of the yearlong unrest, but activists said rockets and tank shells had pummeled the city.

The violence has gotten worse in the 11 days since Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution, sponsored by the Arab League, calling for a peaceful transfer of power. India was on the right side that day, voting for the resolution. But, for months, it had worked to block action. The resolution was no panacea, but, if it had passed, it would have sent a compelling message of international solidarity against Mr. Assad and the elites who keep him in power.

Many Syrian deaths later, China may be reconsidering its stance. As an oil-hungry nation, it could not have failed to hear the rebuke issued to China and Russia on Friday by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia for opposing the resolution. “We are going through scary days and unfortunately what happened at the United Nations is absolutely regrettable,” he said.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China, speaking at a European-China summit meeting in Beijing, said, “What is most urgent and pressing now is to prevent war and chaos” in Syria. There is no evidence Russia has had similar second thoughts, but China is showing renewed interest in working with the Arab League. Beijing’s shift could shame Moscow into reconsidering its support for Mr. Assad, and approving United Nations action, including sanctions.

China and India are also hampering the effort to ratchet up sanctions on Iran even as penalties imposed by the Security Council, the United States and the European Union appear to be affecting Iran’s economy and politics. (The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is expected to announce on Wednesday that a new uranium enrichment plant is fully operational.)

China cut its purchases of Iranian oil this year and secured alternative supplies from Russia and Saudi Arabia. But it is still a major purchaser. India is also still buying and is now Iran’s biggest oil customer. Because of American sanctions, these deals are not as lucrative as they could be for Iran.

The two countries’ need for oil is real, but they should take full advantage of Saudi Arabia’s offer to ramp up production to offset any losses from Iran. The International Energy Agency says there is enough oil supply worldwide to prevent a price shock from an embargo.

We do not know if sanctions can force Iran to give up its nuclear program or force it to negotiate a compromise deal. But the international community is finally at a moment when serious sanctions are in place and beginning to bite. Iran is finding it hard to pay for food imports and has resorted to bartering. It’s time for Russia, China and India (which desperately wants a Security Council seat) to meet the test of leadership.

That means all three need to work to find ways to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For Russia and China, it means standing against Mr. Assad’s siege on his people.

Iranian pair held over Bangkok blast – Central & South Asia – Al Jazeera English.

Iran has strongly denied any involvement in the Thai blasts [AFP]

Two Iranians have been charged with plotting a bomb attack in Bangkok which other officials suggested was linked to attacks on Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia, according to Thailand’s foreign minister. A man carrying an Iranian passport lost his legs and injured four other people in the Thai capital on Tuesday when grenades he was carrying apparently exploded by accident, police said. Surapong Tovichakchaikul, the Thai foreign minister, said on Wednesday that two Iranians had been arrested in connection with the incident. “They are charged with causing an illegal explosion in a public area and attempting to kill police officers and members of the public,” said Surapong. Investigators said they were examining possible links between the explosion in Bangkok and Monday’s blast in New Delhi and failed attack on an Israeli diplomatic vehicle in Tblisi. An unnamed Thai official told AFP that Israeli diplomats were the target of Tuesday’s botched bombing. “These three Iranian men are an assassination team and their targets were Israeli diplomats including the ambassador,” the official said. “Their plan was to attach bombs to diplomats’ cars.” “Yesterday’s incident was caused by current international tensions in world politics,” said Wichian Podphosri, a security official. “It’s happening not only in Thailand but also elsewhere.” He said that a magnet found among the material looked similar to ones used in the Indian bombing and in the device defused in Georgia. Israel blames Iran Israel has accused Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of being behind all three incidents. Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, said: “The attempted terrorist attack in Bangkok proves once again that Iran and its proxies continue to perpetrate terror.” “Iran and Hezbollah are unrelenting terror elements endangering the stability of the region, and endangering the stability of the world,” said Barak, who spent a few hours in Bangkok on Sunday. Iran strongly denied any involvement in the Thai explosion, as well as the incidents in India and Georgia. “The foreign ministry spokesman rejected Israeli claims that Iran was involved in the Bangkok bombing and added that efforts by the Zionist regime to harm friendly and historic relations between Iran and Thailand will bear no fruit,” the semi-official Fars news agency reported. Tuesday’s explosion on a Bangkok street occurred shortly after another explosion, apparently accidental, at a house which the man carrying the grenades was renting, police said. Police found other explosive material in the house. The injured man, whose name was given as Saeid Moradi, lost one of his legs in the blast and the other leg had to be amputated in hospital. Two other men shared the rented house with him. One was arrested at Bangkok’s international airport on Tuesday but the third had slipped past security at the airport and fled to Malaysia, Wichian said. Monday’s attack on an Israeli diplomatic car in New Delhi left a female diplomat and three other people injured. Georgian police said they had thwarted on an Israeli diplomatic vehicle on the same day.

US views Thai attack in context o… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

‘Congress ready to increase Israel defense fun… JPost – Defense.

By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, JPOST CORRESPONDENT 02/15/2012 02:09

US legislators set to more than make up for White House cuts to missile defense spending, Capitol Hill sources tell the ‘Post’; if Israel asks for more money, “without a doubt they would get it,” congressional aid says.

By US Navy

WASHINGTON – Congress is set to significantly increase funding for Israeli missile defense to more than make up for White House cuts to the program, Capitol Hill sources told The Jerusalem Post Tuesday.

The 2013 budget proposal unveiled by US President Barack Obama Monday trims $6 million in defense spending from the Arrow and David’s Sling programs, which is separate from the record $3.1 billion in Israeli military assistance called for under the State Department budget.

The cut to the US-Israel cooperative programs has provoked criticism from some quarters.

“For an administration that tried to claim that it’s the best for Israel’s security, cutting critical funds for missile defense at a time when the threat from Iran has never been greater is extremely dangerous, worrisome and reckless,” said Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition.

But Democrats on Capitol Hill defended the reduced missile defense funding as part of the Obama administration’s effort to rein in overall spending by the Pentagon, whose budget would be slashed by $487 billion across 10 years under Obama’s plan.

“It has nothing to do with the Israeli missile defense program and everything to do with curbing the defense budget in every way possible,” said one aide to a Democratic member on the House defense appropriations subcommittee.

He said Congress would be increasing the missile defense aid once it reviews the budget and determines its own funding levels. The administration budget serves as a blueprint, but it is Congress’s version that is voted on and signed into law.

“Funding for US-Israel missile defense will continue to rise despite the budget request,” he said.

Though the administration’s request for missile defense monies has dropped somewhat in recent years – from $121.7m. in 2011 to $106.1m. in 2012 to 2013’s $99.8m. – during each of those cycles, Congress has consistently increased the final allocation.

The aide predicted the 2013 figure would be in the neighborhood of the record $235.6m. slated for 2012, meaning Congress would be adding at least $100 million to the current figure.

Traditionally, Israel has waited to see the president’s budget request before seeking additional funds on Capitol Hill. Another Congressional aide said that if the Israelis once again asks members for more missile defense funding, “without a doubt they would get it.”

A former Department of Defense official said Obama’s allocation should be seen as part of the larger process, in which all US missile defense spending was cut and even Pentagon staples like the aircraft program faced large reductions.

“Given the budgeting situation, this also indicates support [for Israel], though it’s not exactly the same support as last year,” he said.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta came before the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday to defend the scope of the cuts, though he didn’t address missile defense directly.

“You cannot take half a trillion dollars out of the defense budget and not incur risks,” he acknowledged. “We believe they are acceptable risks.”

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, who testified alongside Panetta at the hearing, urged the Senate to drop consideration of an amendment that would cut off aid to Egypt and break the country’s military ties because of Cairo’s current detention of American NGO workers.

“My military judgment is that would be a mistake,” said Dempsey, who recently met with Egyptian military officials to convince them to release the American citizens.

“I spent about a day and a half in conversation with them, encouraging them in the strongest possible terms to resolve this so that our military-to-military relationship could continue,” Dempsey reported. “I am convinced that potentially they were underestimating the impact of this on our relationship. When I left there, there was no doubt that they understood the seriousness of it.”

Obama’s budget proposal maintains the 2012 funding levels for Egyptian aid, comprised of $1.3m. in military assistance and $250m. in economic assistance. In addition, a new $770m. fund for Arab Spring countries could also possibly include payments to Egypt.

The budget would also allocate $370m. in economic assistance and $70m. in law enforcement training to the Palestinian Authority, though the Fatah and Hamas just entered into a power-sharing plan. Hamas is a US-designated terrorist organization and American laws bar transferring money to such entities.

Texas Republican Rep. Kay Granger, chairwoman of the House foreign operations appropriations subcommittee, said Congress would follow the same limits on disbursements as laid out this past year when similar issues arose.

“In the FY 2012 appropriations bill we laid out common sense, bipartisan conditions that prepared for, and anticipated, the unknown,” she told the Post. “Whether it is the Palestinian Authority or Egypt, this Congress has been clear that there are limitations on how we spend our foreign aid.

“The President’s budget is a blueprint for what the administration wants out of the Congress. This is not what will be enacted into law.”

Botched Bangkok Bombs Meant for Israelis – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Bangkok, Thailand

Israel news photo: Flash 90

Thai officials said the botched Bangkok bomb plot was meant for “foreign nationals,” specifically the ambassador and other Israeli diplomats.

A three-man Iranian terrorist cell organized the plot, which was foiled when some of the bombs exploded in their rented hotel room in central Bangkok.

After the initial “work accident” in their hotel room, a Bangkok police bomb squad found other bombs and explosives at the scene. National Security Council secretary general Wichean Potephosree told Bangkok media that the bombs were meant for individual targets.

All three terrorists are in police custody, including one who was nabbed at the interational airport before he could board his flight.

Police said they have no evidence that links the explosions with the Hizbullah-linked terrorist who was arrested last month on suspicion of possessing explosives, which were intended to be smuggled to an unknown foreign destination.

The incident occurred one day after twin attacks on Israeli diplomats in Georgia, where the attack failed, and India, where the wife of an Israeli diplomat, the driver of her car and two passengers in a nearby vehicle suffered injuries.

Israel has accused Iran of being behind all of the attacks, and the apparent spread of international terrorism aimed at Israeli has sparked a worldwide alert near Israeli and Jewish offices, homes, business and institutions.

Iran not only denied the charges but initially accused Israel of attacking its own diplomats as part of a libel campaign against Iran. The Islamic Republic later changed its view, and said the “Zionists” have plenty of enemies who could have carried out the attacks.

Israeli intelligence officials have given prior warning to foreign countries, including India and Thailand, on suspected terror threats in their countries. The Hindustan Times reported that Israeli officials gave India a list of approximately 50 Iranians who should be kept under surveillance for suspected terror plots.

Israeli experts flew to India to help local intelligence officials and police investigate the attack on the Israeli diplomat’s car, which was attacked with a magnetic bomb similar to that used to assassinate nuclear scientists in Iran the past two years.

Syrian forces ignore international pressure, storm Hama, resume attack on Homs.

Wednesday, 15 February 2012

Demonstrators protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in al-Midan district in Damascus. (Reuters)

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Iran increases presence in Syria – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah operatives aiding Assad’s brutal crackdown on protesters now number in the hundreds

Ron Ben-Yishai

Iran has significantly increased its involvement in Syria over the past few days, Ynet learned Monday.

The presence of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah operatives assisting Syrian President Bashar Assad‘s in his brutal crackdown of protesters now number in the high hundreds; while the Arab League said that it will not supply the rebels with arms unless the bloodshed comes to a halt.An Arab diplomat said that the Arab League “Will offer the Opposition funding and diplomatic assistance at first, but if the regime’s killing continues, we must help the citizens protect themselves… The decision grants the Arab nations the possibility to defend the Syrian people.”

  The majority of Iranian and Hezbollah operatives in Syria supply Assad’s army with intelligence and train the Damascus forces on weapons’ maintenance and reconnaissance. A smaller group of operatives is involved in the actual fighting.  

Tehran has also increased the financial assistance it lends Damascus. It also maintains regular flights to the Syrian capital – a practice Arab League members have suspended due to the escalating violence.

Iran‘s financial aid is one of Assad’s lifelines, as it keeps the middle class in Damascus and Halab (Aleppo) from rising against him as well.

The Islamic Republic’s decision to bolster ties with Syria at a time when Tehran has to deal with growing international sanctions, imposed on it over its refusal to suspend its nuclear program, indicates that the ayatollah’s regime believes Assad and his government can survive the uprising.

The rebels have long claimed that Iran is helping Assad – an assessment backed by Britain and the United States.

Meanwhile, the Arab League is preparing a draft on a UN Security Councilresolution on Syria. The draft coincides with a recent decision passed by the pan-Arab organization, which urges its members to “lend any political and monetary assistance possible” to the Opposition.

Analysis: Israeli-Iranian war now out of shado… JPost – Defense.

AFP: Iran to unveil nuclear ‘achievements’ Wednesday.

TEHRAN — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to unveil several unspecified nuclear “achievements” on Wednesday, his government’s website said.

“Several completed nuclear projects will be unveiled tomorrow in the presence of the president,” the official website said on Tuesday.

“Experts believe these achievements will show the world the extraordinary capability and knowledge of Iranians.”

It added that the progress will underline Iran’s scientific adherence to “nuclear power for all and nuclear weapons for none,” the website said.

The announcement confirmed a vow made by Ahmadinejad on Saturday to inaugurate “important nuclear projects” within “days,” in a speech marking the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution.

Iran’s progress in its nuclear programme has deeply unsettled the West and Israel, which see it masking a drive for atomic weapons. A report by the UN nuclear watchdog in November also expressed strong suspicions in that sense.

Tehran, though, has repeatedly said its nuclear activities are exclusively peaceful in nature.

The international showdown over Iran’s nuclear programme has deepened in recent months, with the United States and the European Union slapping unprecedentedly tough economic sanctions on the Islamic republic to pressure it to halt its activities.

Israel has threatened to possibly unleash air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, while the United States has intimated it, too, could take military action if it thought it necessary.

Iran has reacted defiantly, beginning uranium enrichment in a fortified bunker under a mountain in Fordo, near the holy city of Qom, and promising soon to insert its first domestically made nuclear fuel plates into its Tehran research reactor.

It has also claimed to be ready to resume stalled talks with world powers over its nuclear programme but has yet to formally reply to a letter sent by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton nearly four months ago offering negotiations.