Archive for February 2012

Back to their Old Ways? Iran, Hizbollah, and International Terrorism

February 21, 2012

Back to their Old Ways? Iran, Hizbollah, and International Terrorism.

Since the rise of the ayatollah regime in Iran in 1979 and its role in the establishment of Hizbollah in Lebanon in 1982, the two – in the context of their patron-protégé relationship – have used terrorism as a tool in their struggles with enemies at home and abroad.

Since the terrorist attacks in the United States, and in light of many states’ reduced tolerance for terrorism exported from their sovereign territories, the Iranian regime reined in its terrorist acts and those of its protégé on the international arena. However, the most recent acts against Israelis abroad, carrying the fingerprints of Tehran, may be a sign that Iran and Hizbollah are reverting to their familiar evil ways.

If so, the international community and various security establishments will have to face the challenge of foiling continued activity of this sort and attempt to determine the future direction of the Iranian regime, primarily in light of the possibility that the international sanctions and embargo against Iran because of the nuclear issue will intensify.

In the past the Iranian regime operated various terrorist organizations to attack targets around the world, including assassinating Iranian exiles in European countries, and it urged Hizbollah to abduct people and/or hijack airplanes and send suicide bombers on missions all over the world. It also helped upgrade the capabilities of certain groups, turning them into guided “terrorilla” armies, trained and armed with advanced weaponry. This policy was meant to promote Iran’s geostrategic interests against its enemies, e.g., Israel – by increasing the military power of Hizbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, and the US – by promoting groups such as al-Sadr’s Mahdi militia in Iraq. Until recently, it appeared that the Iranian regime had opted to cut back the use of terrorist organizations in carrying out attacks-by-proxy around the world.

The February 2008 assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus, Hizbollah’s most senior operations officer, a veteran partner of the Iranian regime in terrorism, and the key contact person in terms of strategic military cooperation between Iran and Hizbollah, triggered a joint Tehran-Hizbollah decision to avenge his death; to them, it was clear that Israel was responsible. Immediately after Mughniyeh’s death, Hizbollah agents began working with Iran toward this revenge, though such a mission has yet to succeed. At the same time, when Iran began suffering acts of sabotage, assassinations, and defections of senior Revolutionary Guards personnel and figures involved in the nuclear program, the desire for revenge merged with the decision to reestablish the rules of the game between Hizbollah and Iran on the one hand, and Israel and its allies on the other. This new determination is also the result of the political and economic pressure being exerted on Iran. Iran means to signal to its enemies that it has extreme responses at its disposal, including terrorism on the international arena.

Nonetheless, despite the close cooperation between Iran and Hizbollah, this is not a partnership of equals. Tehran was, and remains, dominant, and Hizbollah’s policy is greatly subordinated to Iran’s considerations, certainly regarding fundamental principles or issues of strategic import. While Iran operates according to the wishes of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his close associates, Hizbollah is not an independent agent when it comes to questions of war and peace or international terrorism. Hizbollah too must receive the green light from Khamenei. In addition, although operationally Hizbollah’s international terrorism apparatus has proven independent capabilities to carry out showcase attacks abroad, when necessary its personnel receive operational and logistical assistance from the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian intelligence services.

It is in this light that the missions Hizbollah and Iran have tried to carry out in recent years, both together and independently of one another, should be examined. Hizbollah, through its international terrorism apparatus, some of whose personnel were apprehended in Azerbaijan, planned to attack the Israeli embassy in Baku (May 2008); the organization planned to attack Israeli tourists in Egypt and Israeli ships sailing in the Suez Canal (late 2008); it gathered intelligence and planned attacks against various targets (ships, planes, synagogues) in Turkey (October 2009); and it attempted to kill the Israeli consul in Istanbul (May 2011). Hizbollah also planned attacks against the Israeli embassy and/or destinations popular among Israeli tourists in Bangkok. For its part, Iran attempted a string of terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets using Iranian agents or local terrorist cells trained and supervised by Tehran.

The attempt succeeded only in India

In January 2012, a local cell in Azerbaijan tried to attack Israeli Chabad representatives in Baku, but the cell was caught. Last week Iranian agents and their proxies tried to attack Israeli consulate personnel in Tbilisi, New Delhi, and Bangkok by attaching explosive devices to their cars. The attempt succeeded only in India. The choice of Asian and CIS locations (though Turkey and Egypt are also on the list) indicates operational capabilities and infrastructures available to Iran and Hizbollah in these countries, and also an assessment that the damage they would sustain as a result of these actions does not represent an actual threat to their interests and certainly does not outweigh the potential rewards.

Predictably, and like any state that supports terrorism, the Iranian regime has denied any connection to the events, and even tried to deflect blame onto Israel as a party interested in sparking an anti-Iranian provocation. At the same time, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi declared that Ayatollah Khamenei had instructed the representatives of the various Iranian defense systems to act against the enemies of the regime abroad and not restrain themselves any longer in reacting to attacks on the Iranian nuclear industry. Iran was thereby trying to clarify that it views its “defensive” activities as legitimate and that they would continue. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah, who denied his organization’s involvement in the recent attacks, also announced that his organization is determined to avenge the death of Mughniyeh in a way proportionate to the offense; he thus again committed himself to continue terrorist attacks abroad.

Despite the failed execution by the Iranian and Hizbollah proxies in most of the recent attempts, their abilities to carry out an effective lethal terrorist campaign should not be underestimated. The international political and economic sanctions imposed on Iran, the implied threats about possible military attacks on Iran by Israel and the US, and the weak response of the nations where the recent attacks failed to produce damage and deaths are all liable to spur Iran and Hizbollah once again to pursue intensive terrorism on the international arena. Moreover, the Revolutionary Guards’ attempt on the life of the Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington in late 2011 indicates that Iran may be trying to expand its attacks to states other than Israel that are partners to the international pressure on Iran.

At this stage, Israel has only increased security of its officials stationed abroad

As for Israel, the recent concerted effort against its representatives, consulates, embassies, and citizens sorely tests the government’s ability to continue its policy of restraint in the face of threats. At this stage, Israel has only increased security of its officials stationed abroad and has issued warnings to Israelis to take precautions. However, it is clear that continued Iranian and Hizbollah action, especially if it succeeds in causing real harm to Israelis, will force the Israeli government to respond more forcefully, and this could touch off a conflagration in the region, if not beyond.

Suicide bombers poised to strike U.S., Iran warns

February 21, 2012

Suicide bombers poised to strike U.S., Iran warns | The Daily Caller.

 

Iran has sleeper cells throughout the United States and the West that will unleash suicide bombings should Iranian nuclear facilities be attacked.

The leaders of the Islamic regime have long prepared for a confrontation with the United States. Now, with tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. Navy assets taking position in the Persian Gulf, Israel threatening strikes against Iranian nuclear sites and the decision by the regime in Tehran to pursue its goal of obtaining nuclear weapons, the Iranians are making it clear to America that U.S. military bases around the world and sites inside the U.S. will be attacked if Iranian nuclear facilities are attacked.

In a recent Friday prayers sermon in Tehran, the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised that if America attacked Iran, Iran would respond by causing 10 times as much destruction to America as it had caused to Iran. Others in the regime have been more specific.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper recently told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence about his concerns of Iran’s willingness to attack the United States in response to any confrontation.

As I reported last June, Brig. Gen. Mohammad-Reza Naghdi, during a gathering of high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guards command and the Basij militia, announced that Iranian assets have successfully infiltrated deep within the West, from Europe to New York.

Another commander of the Guards, Hussein Babai, revealed that Hezbollah terrorist cells, under the direction of Iran, began forming after the 2006 war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah. With the current Arab Spring, they have expanded their operations. Their mission, Babai said, is to help create an Islam-dominated world.

With my background as a CIA spy in the Revolutionary Guards, I can attest to how the Guards successfully use mosques, Islamic cultural centers, Islamic student associations, alliances with other Islamic groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and Muslims from Afghani and Pakistani groups to infiltrate the West and infect its society.

The Iranian Quds Forces along with Hezbollah cells have a large presence in Latin America, especially in Venezuela, and through collaboration with drug cartels, they get into Mexico and from there into the United States.

In order to understand their motives, one must understand their ideology, which is best described in articles by Alireza Forghani, the former governor of Kish Province and an analyst and a strategy specialist in Khamenei’s camp. I recently exposed one piece, carried on every major Iranian media outlet and within the Revolutionary Guards, that detailed Iran’s religious duty to destroy Israel and kill all Jews. Forghani now promises an Iranian response to any attack by America on the world stage.

His latest piece, entitled “We Welcome War,” warns America that within 48 hours of any attack on Iran, all U.S. military installations around the world will be attacked by martyrdom-seeking Muslims.

He then quotes the Quran (Al-Anfal 60): “Prepare with all your armaments and force in your possession to confront the enemy so that your enemies and enemies of Allah will become fearful.”

In Islam, he says, war is a duty and Allah will resent any Muslim who backs down from it.

“America should know that while they have been preparing for war, we  have been ready for the re-appearance of the Imam Mahdi, Shiites’ 12th Imam, and ready for war and jihad,” he says. America should know that while it pays its soldiers to fight, the Islamic fighters wage jihad in war with pride, as dying otherwise is too shameful for them.”

Then Forghani makes the clearest threat by stating that America should know there are many young people of Hezbollah who are placed outside Iran and that they will carry out attacks and martyrdom operations on every American military base in 112 countries around the world in less than 48 hours after any aggression by America.

He concludes that “America needs to know that while the American youth shout the slogan ‘Stop the war,’ for fear of dying, the children of Ruhollah [Khomeini], founder of the Islamic regime, never flee from war and always pray to Allah for the chance of martyrdom.”

Renowned Iranian ideologue Hassan Rahim Poor Azgadi, in a speech titled ”A Model for Tomorrow,” which recently aired on Iran’s state-owned TV, called for jihad in Europe and America. He said that Iran’s forces must get ready for a global operation.

He says that the Islamic revolution in Iran, as promised, has now been exported and warned that “our fellow fighters” are present in all five continents of the world in the fight against imperialism and in preparation for the coming of Mahdi. Shiites believe the 13th-century imam demands world chaos and destruction — Armageddon — before he will return.

An international jihad must be provoked, Azgadi said, and there must be no fear of anyone. Citing Khomeini’s dictate that “We must destroy Israel and free Jerusalem,” Azgadi concludes that “We will do this.”

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award-winning book,A Time to Betray.” He is a senior fellow with EMPact America and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).

Obama’s Weakness Shows As Ahmadinejad Sticks Two Fingers Up To America

February 21, 2012

OfficialWire: TOP NEWS: Obama’s Weakness Shows As Ahmadinejad Sticks Two Fingers Up To America.

While Obama prefers to try sanctions and a wait and see policy, his weakness is splashed across the Arab world……..

Iran has ignored sanctions and it loaded it’s first domestic made fuel rod into a nuclear reactor and threatened to cut oil in six European countries, in the wake of EU and US sanctions.

Soon it will be when Iran will retaliate against it’s hated enemy Israel who took out their last nuclear reactor, and who will in power to stop them?

The fight in America is occupied with the presidential race and Rick Santorum on Thursday accused President Barack Obama of actively seeking ways to allow Iran to gain a nuclear weapon and suggested that the administration had betrayed Israel by publicly disclosing what may be a plan to attack the Muslim nation.

The latest Iranian offer to talk with UN Security Council appeared to offer no significant concessions. They believe that new talks would push them away from their nuclear programme. This was strengthened by Iran’s aggressive moves but failed attempts to attack Israel’s diplomats in Thailand, India and Georgia.

Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister warned the Iranians that they cannot be allowed to have a “zone of Immunity“ at Fordow, where they can work on nuclear weapons underground and be protected from Israel’s weapons. Barak said they will attack before this happens.

Will Obama then be behind in the chair as the Israelis nuke Iran?

‘Azerbaijan arrests Iran-linked terror suspects’

February 21, 2012

‘Azerbaijan arrests Iran-linked terror s… JPost – International.

 

By JPOST.COM STAFF 02/21/2012 19:28
Suspects have links to Iran, Hezbollah and were plotting to attack foreigners, AFP reports.

Azneft Square, Baku By Ben Hartman

Police in Azerbaijan arrested a number of people with links to Iran and Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, AFP reported Tuesday according to Azeri state TV.

Azeri police said the detained suspects were planning attacks on foreign citizens in the Eurasian nation.

The state TV report said the suspects had bought weapons including firearms and explosives, and had gathered intelligence on potential targets.

Terrorists in India and Georgia, which neighbors Azerbaijan, targeted Israeli diplomats last week when they planned bombings of the Israeli embassies in New Delhi and Tbilisi. While Georgian sappers defused the bomb in Tbilisi, an Israeli diplomat’s wife and her Indian driver were wounded when a bomb attached to their vehicle exploded.

Israel blamed Iran for the attack. Tehran denied any role in the attacks, saying Israel seeks to tarnish the Islamic Republic’s image.

The Foreign Ministry announced last week that Israeli missions in foreign countries were on high alert after the terror attacks; four undisclosed embassies were closed for a number of days.

Israel fears reprisal attacks from Hezbollah after the recent anniversary of the assassination of the Lebanese group’s terror mastermind Imad Mughniyeh in 2008, which Hezbollah blames on its proclaimed archenemy Israel.

Herb Keinon contributed to this report

New claims suggest sweep of Iran’s covert plots – CBS News

February 21, 2012

New claims suggest sweep of Iran’s covert plots – CBS News.

(AP)  BEIRUT — Piece by piece, the tools for an alleged Iranian-directed murder team were smuggled into Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea. A sniper rifle with silencer. Pistols. Sixteen pieces of plastic explosives and detonators.

Finally came a dossier with photos, names and exacting details — down to workplace drawings — for Israeli targets in the capital of Azerbaijan.

Each step, according to authorities in Baku, was overseen by Iran’s intelligence services for what could have been a stunning attack weeks before the suspected shadow war between Jerusalem and Tehran flared in Azerbaijan’s neighbor Georgia and the megacities New Delhi and Bangkok.

The shadow war is picking up as concerns are growing over Iran’s alleged weapons experiments. Iran denies charges by the West that it seeks atomic weapons, insisting its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only, such as power generation.

The allegedly unraveled Baku plot in January, recounted through interviews and police records, has been largely overshadowed by this month’s arrests and attacks that suggest Iranian payback after the slayings of at least five Iranian scientists in the past two years — all with some links to Tehran’s nuclear program.

But the Baku claims offer a wider portrait of Iran’s alleged clandestine operations, and how they appear tailored to different locales.

“The moves against Israel taken in other countries and thwarted in Baku are undoubtedly interconnected,” said Arastun Orujlu, the head of East-West, an independent Baku-based think tank. “Iran tries to provoke Israel. Iran needs an external factor to mobilize and unite the society, but it realizes that it will lose a big war. That is why Iran is trying to provoke Israel to engage in smaller-scale confrontation.”

In Bangkok, the three Iranian suspects in custody took advantage of Thailand’s foreigner-friendly culture to party with bar girls while allegedly organizing a bomb cache whose targets, police say, included the Israeli Embassy. In New Delhi, the wife of an Israeli diplomat and three others were wounded by attackers using magnetic bombs — the same tactic used to kill a senior nuclear official in Tehran last month in an attack that Iran claims was masterminded by Israel. The same day as the New Delhi blast, a similar “sticky bomb” was found on the car of a driver for the Israeli Embassy in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi.

The Baku allegations bring a different scenario: local mercenaries suspected of being recruited by a well-known gangster with alleged ties to Iranian secret services.

“Each alleged plot has its own signature,” said Theodore Karasik, a security expert at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, who was part of a fact-finding trip to Baku after the January arrests in Baku. “They all seem to have a bit of an amateur quality about them, however, as if Iran is trying various tactics to see what works.”

But the shifting tactics remain difficult to interpret, say security experts.

Some speculate they indicate a level of sophistication and preplanning to adapt plans that take local conditions and opportunities into account. An opposing view also is frequently cited: They represent a scattershot approach that shows panic and disarray as sanctions — and suspected covert attacks inside Iran — rattle Tehran’s leadership.

Iran denies any links to the attacks outside its borders, but accuses Israel of directing the slayings of the Iranian scientists as well as other clandestine acts such as a computer virus that targeted uranium enrichment equipment.

“There is no way to interpret its belligerent and violent behavior, which all but defies all operational and diplomatic logic, as anything but a sign that the decision-makers in Tehran are acting from their gut and not their head,” wrote Yoav Limor, a prominent defense correspondent for Israel’s national TV station.

The Baku case bridges both elements: A suggestion of some methodical planning, but also a risky reliance on the local underworld in a city that with a history of tensions between Iran and Israel.

The former Soviet republic — flush with Caspian oil and friendly to the West — sits on Iran’s western shoulder with deep connections into the Islamic Republic through Iran’s ethnic Azeri community, one of the nation’s largest whose members include Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Baku’s outward-looking policies also have been packaged into an international PR campaign as it bids for the 2020 Olympics.

In 2007, Azerbaijan convicted 15 people in connection with an alleged Iranian-linked spy network accused of passing intelligence on Western and Israeli activities. The following year, Azerbaijan officials said they foiled a plot to explode car bombs near the Israeli Embassy in retaliation for the killing in Syria of a top commander in Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group. Two Lebanese men were later convicted in Baku for the bombing attempt.

Now, as Iran’s nuclear showdown with the West deepens, the Islamic Republic sees the Azeri frontier as a weak point. Earlier this month, Iran’s foreign ministry accused Azerbaijan of allowing the Israeli spy agency Mossad to operate on its territory and providing a corridor for “terrorists” to kill members of Iran’s scientific community.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Elman Abdullayev, dismissed the Iranian claims as “slanderous lies” designed to turn attention away from the alleged assassination plot uncovered last month.

Authorities in Azerbaijan’s National Security Ministry allege the weapons and explosives were smuggled into the country bit by bit beginning in October. The cache included three pistols and a military-grade sniper rifle with a silencer.

The suspected ringleader was a local thug, Balagardash Dadashev, who had a record that included kidnapping and robbery. Azeri officials believe Dadashev, at some point, branched out to make connections with Iranian agents, possibly linked to the powerful Revolutionary Guard, the ultimate defender of Iran’s ruling system.

From a safe haven in Iran, Dadashev then reached out to two Azeri underworld figures to carry out killings of Israeli citizens.

Police say he first approached his brother-in-law, Rasim Aliyev, who at first rejected the idea. Then, authorities say, he and his Baku neighbor returned with a demand for $200,000. Dadashev countered with $150,000 and gave Aliyev a $9,300 advance as well a plan of a Jewish school in Baku and photos of two Israeli teachers working there. Police say Dadashev said they could target either of the two at their choice.

Aliyev’s neighbor, Ali Guseinov, used some of the money to buy a used car, according to investigators. He then requested a sniper rifle after seeing security cameras at the school, which caters to Azerbaijan’s small Jewish community. Police say pistols, explosives and detonators also were part of the plot’s arsenal.

The alleged plot collapsed with a series of raids and arrests announced Jan. 19. Dadashev was believed to be in Iran and out of the reach of Baku authorities. But in a purported confession shown on Azerbaijani state television, Aliyev said Dadashev had told him it was revenge for the alleged Israeli slayings in Iran. Some Israeli reports, which have not been officially confirmed, said the country’s ambassador also was a target.

Israeli security officials refuse to give further details about their investigations or coordination with authorities in Baku. Last week, however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted the alleged Azerbaijan plot as part of Israel’s efforts to work with security forces around the world.

“In recent months, we have witnessed several attempts to attack Israeli citizens in several countries, including Azerbaijan, Thailand and others,” he said. “In each instance, we succeeded in foiling the attacks in cooperation with local authorities.”

Tehran steps into US-Israel Iran row with threat of pre-emptive strike

February 21, 2012

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

(Time to ignore Obama and DEAL with this threat already!  Cmon, Bibi… – JW )

DEBKAfile Special Report February 21, 2012, 2:58 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran General Mohammad Hejazi

Deputy Chief of Iran’s Armed Forces Gen. Mohammad Hejazi issued a new threat Tuesday, Feb. 21: “Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests… we will act without waiting for their actions.”
debkafile’s military sources report that an Iranian preemptive attack on Israel has been in the air for some weeks. It became realistic because the dragging out of the argument between Washington and Jerusalem over a military strike and the two government’s indecisiveness gave Tehran a golden opportunity to further its interests.
It bestowed on Iran the gift of entering into talks on its nuclear program with the six world powers (P5 plus 1) free of a military threat and therefore in a superior bargaining position. For openers, Tehran has already pocketed the Obama administration’s promise of permission to continue to enrich uranium up to 5 percent in any quantity and will be more than ready to lay down more demands.
Gen. Hejazi’s threat of a preemptive strike against Israel also serves the Islamic regime in its run-up to a general election on March 3. It aims to show the Iranian voter and Middle East public that Iran has successfully turned US and Israeli aggression against Iran against them and demonstrated they are no more than paper tigers incapable of carrying through on their rhetoric. The military initiative therefore stays in Iran’s hands.
In Tehran, the standard Israeli cliché of “We don’t’ advise anyone to test our resolve” has worn thin.
By letting two Iranian warships bearing arms for Assad pass Israel’s coast on its way to Tartus without interference, Israel encouraged Tehran to assume that, in the last reckoning, it will abstain from a unilateral strike to eradicate Iran’s nuclear facilities without Washington’s blessing.
The Netanyahu government’s resolve is expected to melt away under the bulldozer assault of one American emissary after another touching down at Ben-Gurion airport to corner them into backing down.
Once Israel lets its hands be tied, Tehran calculates, it will become progressively harder to break them loose, so that if Tehran does carry out a limited “preemptive” missile attack on the Jewish state, Jerusalem will again bow to Washington and let itself be coerced into not responding.
Thursday, Feb. 23, US National Director of Intelligence James Clapper arrives in Israel to tackle its military and intelligence chiefs on the question, after US National Defense Director Tom Donilon spent three days in fruitless discussions with government leaders Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff tried his hand at persuasion earlier this month. This cycle of pressure will peak with Netanyahu’s White House talks with President Obama on March 5.
The Iranians felt confident enough to safely deny requests from the team of IAEA inspectors who arrived in Tehran Monday for access suspect nuclear locations and meetings with scientists employed in their nuclear program.
Gen. Hejazi’s words were backed up by a four-day air defense exercise, dubbed Sarallah (God’s Revenge), in the south of the country. The Islamic Republic also took another initiative by cutting off oil exports to Britain and France and so turning the tables on the European Union’s oil embargo on Tehran.

Bolton:Private Pressure on Israel Not to Attack Iran Is ‘Failing’

February 21, 2012

Bolton:Private Pressure on Israel Not to Attack Iran Is ‘Failing’.

Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton says the Obama administration has gone public in recent days with the pressure it has been putting in private on Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities because behind-the-scenes efforts have been fruitless. Bolton also reiterated to Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren Monday a nuclear Iran would ignite a race in the area for all countries to attain the capability.
“I think that it’s a recognition that the private pressure on Israel by the administration for Israel not to strike is failing — and so they’re going public,” Bolton said. “But I think it has two consequences: One, it’s a terrible signal of weakness to Iran that we’re . . . apparently more concerned about an Israeli strike than we are about an Iranian nuclear weapon.
“And I think for Israel, it simply demonstrates nobody else is going to take care of them,” he said. “If they’re going to protect themselves, they’re going to have to do it themselves.”
Bolton noted that if Iran indeed does attain the capability to build a bomb, the threat reaches beyond Tehran sharing the technology with its allies — such as Syria and like-minded terrorist organizations.
“Because if Iran does have a nuclear-weapons capability, Saudi Arabia will get nuclear weapons; Egypt will; Turkey will; perhaps others in the Middle East,” Bolton said. “You could have half a dozen nuclear weapons states there in a relatively short period of time.
“Look, I’d love to believe that President Obama was prepared to use military force to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon — it’s not going to happen. I think Israel has to make a tough very decision,” he added. “But their calculus is not just: Is it a hard mission or will it have an effect on oil prices. They’re looking at the risk of Tel Aviv being turned into a charcoal briquette by an Iranian nuclear weapon. Will they take risks to prevent that from happening? You bet they will.”
Bolton warned that he is convinced Iran will get nuclear weapons “within the year.”
“The only wild card is whether or not Israel decides to strike,” he said.
Read more on Newsmax.com: Bolton:Private Pressure on Israel Not to Attack Iran Is ‘Failing’
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Obama placing ‘enormous pressure’ on Israel not to attack Iran

February 21, 2012

Israel Matzav: Obama placing ‘enormous pressure’ on Israel not to attack Iran.

A ‘senior Israeli official’ has told AFP that the Obama administration is placing ‘enormous pressure on Israel‘ not to attack Iran.

“Israel is under pressure from all sides. The Americans don’t want to be surprised and faced with a fait accompli of an Israeli attack,” the senior official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“They are telling us to be patient and see if the international sanctions against Tehran will eventually work,” he said.

At this time, Israel is coming under increased pressure from Washington and Europe to hold off from attacking Iran over its disputed nuclear drive and allow time for a regime of tight international sanctions to kick in.

Pressure is being exerted from all directions, officials acknowledge, with Washington’s concern over a pre-emptive Israeli strike reflected in the steady stream of senior officials arriving in Jerusalem for top-level talks.

Later this week, US Intelligence Chief James Clapper is also due to arrive, press reports said.

You all remember Clapper, don’t you? The clown who thinks the Muslim Brotherhood is secular….

Barak has been “summoned” to Washington next week, media reports said, ahead of a visit by the premier himself on March 5 and a planned meeting between Israel’s PM and the American president.

I’m going to go out on a limb and speculate that Barak was the ‘senior Israeli official’ who was the source for this article. After Barak’s comments after his meeting with Tom Donilon on Monday, it’s not surprising that Washington wants to try to bring him into line.

Barak may be the last of the ‘bitchonistim,’ the people from the Labor-Left who still aren’t ready to commit suicide on the altar of a ‘Palestinian state.’ (The roots of the ‘bitchonistim‘ are David Ben Gurion and Yitzchak Rabin). Barak was also Netanyahu’s commanding officer in Sayeret Matkal, the elite of the elite army units that reports directly to the Chief of Staff. As much as I have criticized some of what Barak did in the army in the past, I don’t see Barak – who believes that the Iranian threat is existential – putting Israel’s security in Obama’s hands. Ideologically, that’s not him.

What could go wrong?

Iran Warns of Pre-Emptive Action in Nuclear Dispute – NYTimes.com

February 21, 2012

Iran Warns of Pre-Emptive Action in Nuclear Dispute – NYTimes.com.

LONDON — As tension grew in its nuclear dispute with the West, Iran was reported on Tuesday to have struck an increasingly bellicose tone, warning that it would take pre-emptive action against perceived foes if it felt its national interests were threatened.

The warning by the deputy head of its armed forces, quoted by a semi-official news agency, came as Tehran also appeared to place limits on a visit by a team of United Nations nuclear officials, saying the investigators would not go to nuclear facilities, despite earlier reports that its members had sought permission to inspect a military complex outside Tehran.

Growing tensions over Iran’s disputed nuclear program have provoked speculation that Israel may be contemplating a military strike against nuclear facilities, which Tehran says are for peaceful purposes but which the West suspects are inching toward the capability to produce nuclear weapons.

Without mentioning Israel directly, Mohammed Hejazi, the deputy armed forces head, said on Tuesday: “Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,” Reuters reported.

The statement came a day after a team from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived in Tehran for the second time in three weeks. The Associated Press quoted the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, as saying the investigators from the International Atomic Energy Agency, who arrived in Tehran on Monday, had no plans to visit the contentious nuclear sites, which the West maintains are part of a covert weapons program.

On Monday, The A.P. said, Iranian radio said the inspectors had asked to visit a military complex outside Tehran that is a suspected secret weapons-making location. It was not clear whether the Iranian authorities had specifically turned down the reported request. I.A.E.A. officials did not immediately return calls seeking clarification.

As the I.A.E.A. delegation left its headquarters in Vienna late Sunday, its leader, Herman Nackaerts, said the delegation wished to investigate “the possible military dimensions” that Tehran insists the program does not have and which the inspectors’ previous visit did nothing to resolve.

International tension has been rising steadily, as Iran claims significant technological advances in uranium enrichment and threatens retaliation against countries that pursue sanctions against it, including a boycott of its oil.

Shortly after the I.A.E.A. team arrived for talks with Iranian officials, the Iranian government signaled that it might expand a ban on oil shipments to Britain and France, announced on Sunday, to cover other European powers that it deems “hostile” because of broader economic sanctions by the European Union that are scheduled to come into force on July 1. The ban was apparently announced to pre-empt those sanctions, which include a boycott on new purchases.

Iran’s deputy oil minister, Ahmad Qalebani, said that oil exports to Spain, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Italy and Portugal might also be banned, state media reported.

“Undoubtedly, if the hostile actions of certain European countries continue, oil exports to these countries will be stopped,” Mr. Qalebani, who is also the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Company, was quoted as saying by the Mehr News Agency.

The threat reflected speculation that Iran may be trying to sow division in the 27-nation European Union between the members that do not rely heavily on Iranian oil and those that do.

Over all, the European Union buys about 18 percent of the oil that Iran exports. But those exports are much more important to Italy and Spain, which each get about one-eighth of their oil supplies from Iran, or to Greece, which gets one-third, than they are to Britain and Germany, which get only 1 percent of their oil from Iran, or to France, which gets only 3 percent.

Despite Mr. Qalebani’s remarks, Iran may hesitate to compound the economic harm it suffers from existing sanctions by forfeiting significant revenue from oil sales to Europe now. Even so, the standoff between Iran and the West sometimes resembles a poker game with potentially lethal stakes, as both Iran and its adversaries maneuver for advantage with no way of knowing their opponent’s ultimate intentions.

British leaders, for instance, are trying to dissuade Israel from contemplating a military strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran boasts of enhanced enrichment capabilities.

Over the weekend, William Hague, the British foreign secretary, said that while the West should leave all of its options open, a military strike would have “enormous downsides,” and that Britain’s main priority was to “bring Iran back to the table” through diplomacy and economic pressure.

Iran, for its part, announced new military exercises on Monday “in a bid to prevent such aggressions” by Israel and the West, the semiofficial Fars News Agency reported. “The grandeur and mightiness of the country’s armed forces is a deterrent element against enemies’ recent aggressions and threats,” said Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The leader of the delegation of inspectors, Mr. Nackaerts, said “We hope to have some concrete results after this trip.” Though weapons development was the most important question, he said, “We want to tackle all outstanding issues.”

Mr. Nackaerts, the atomic agency’s deputy director general, warned that “this is of course a complex issue, which may take a while,” according to a transcript of his remarks made available on Monday by agency officials.

The latest visit is scheduled to last two days, though it may be extended, as the last one was. Diplomats who were briefed on the discussions held on the last visit said that Iranian officials failed to address the major concerns about Iran’s activities that were raised in a report issued by the agency in November.

Some of the latest Western worries center on a new uranium enrichment plant at Fordo, Iran, which is buried deep underground, making it much harder to monitor or, presumably, to attack.

Iran tried to keep construction of the plant secret, but Western intelligence agencies confirmed its existence in 2009; Iran then insisted that it had intended to make the plant publicly known all along.

Western officials appear to be divided over whether Iran is shifting toward a more conciliatory posture or is playing for time to pursue its uranium enrichment program, which it says is for strictly peaceful purposes.

Last week, in a letter to the European Union, Iran called for new talks “at the earliest possibility” with the group of six powers that have negotiated with Iran in the past on the nuclear issue: the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany.

In the past, calls for talks from Iran have often been accompanied by warlike statements that it is honing its military capabilities. Iran’s defense minister, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, said Monday that the country had begun several projects to build new advanced warplanes, according to Press TV, a state-financed satellite broadcaster.

On its Web site, the broadcaster showed a photograph of what it said was a long-range land-to-sea missile called Qader, or Capable, being fired during war games in southern Iran.

Iran to take pre-emptive action if endangered, warns top general

February 21, 2012

Iran to take pre-emptive action if endangered, warns top general – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Deputy head of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces says if Tehran feels that its enemies want to endanger its national interests, then it will ‘act without waiting for their actions.’

By Reuters

Iran would take pre-emptive action against its enemies if it felt its national interests were endangered, the deputy head of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces was quoted by a semi-official news agency as saying on Tuesday.

“Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,” Mohammad Hejazi told Fars news agency.

Revolutionary Guard - AP - September 2011 In this Sept. 22, 2011 photo, members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard march just outside Tehran, Iran.
Photo by: AP

Iran is facing growing international pressure and isolation over its disputed nuclear activity. Expanded Western sanctions aim to block its economically vital oil exports and Tehran has said it could retaliate by shutting the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane vital to global energy supplies.

Earlier Tuesday, Haaretz reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and other senior officials had protested over recent comments by senior American officials critical of any Israeli attack on Iran, saying this criticism “served Iran’s interests.”

A senior Israeli official said Netanyahu and Barak told Tom Donilon, U.S. national security adviser who has been in Israel this week, of their dissatisfaction with the interview given by Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, to CNN on Sunday.

Dempsey said “I don’t think a wise thing at this moment is for Israel to launch a military attack on Iran,” and a strike “would be destabilizing” and “not prudent.”
Dempsey said the United States has so far not been able to persuade Israel not to attack Iran. “I wouldn’t suggest that we’ve persuaded them that our view is the correct view,” he said.

The Israeli officials also objected to a number of briefings senior American officials gave American correspondents, who wrote in recent weeks about a possible Israeli attack in Iran.

The story that angered Netanyahu most was an NBC broadcast two weeks ago saying Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities with Jericho missiles, commando forces and F-151 jets.