WarSclerotic

Two attacks target Israeli embassies in Georgi… JPost – Defense.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 13, 2012, 1:52 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israel car blown up in New Delhi

debkafile’s counter-terrorist sources report a bomb attached to the car of an Israeli Defense Ministry official in New Delhi blew up and injured his wife Monday, Feb. 12. The Indian police reports two people were injured in the blast that was triggered remotely near the Israeli embassy and opposite the Indian Prime Minister’s Office. The Iranian media report six to eight casualties. Police have cordoned off the area and declared a terror alert. The details of the attack are not yet clear.

Israeli diplomats and foreign officials have been ordered to stop using their own vehicles and be extra-vigilant  after the second bombing attack.
In the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, a bomb attached to the car of a local Israeli embassy employee was discovered and defused before it exploded.

It is not known if the bomb was rigged to kill the employee or to blow up remotely against the embassy building after the vehicle was driven into the compound. Sunday, Feb. 11, was the fourth anniversary of the death of Hizballah’s commander Imad Mughniye in Damascus. Tehran is marking the first anniversary of the assassinations of two of its nuclear scientists. Both attribute the attacks to Israel and have sworn vengeance.
Our counter-terror sources report that the attacks on Israeli officials used the same sticky bomb method as was used to kill the Iranian scientists.

‘White House doesn’t want Israel to start a war – yet’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Newsweek explores internal conflict within US administration regarding Iranian threat; describes US-Israel intelligence ‘dance’; says Obama trying to ‘manage the wild card that is Israel’

Yitzhak Benhorin

WASHINGTON – “Obama’s Dangerous Game with Iran” – that is the name chosen by Newsweek magazine, which this week explores the internal conflict within the American administration regarding the Iranian threat.

The feature also delves into the intricate relationships between Israel and the US on the matter, suggesting that both sides are, at times, not as forthcoming with each other as it may seem.

The magazine quotes Pentagon sources as saying that for the most part, the US prefers to “look the other way” when it come to Israel’s covert operations against Iran, especially when it comes to the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists.

Newsweek presents a basic question: Can US President Barack Obama “keep nukes out of the mullahs’ hands, prevent the global economy from imploding, manage the wild card that is Israel – and get reelected”?

The cover of Newsweek

The mistrust between Washington and Jerusalem regarding Iran dates to “well before Obama moved into the White House,” the report said, citing an Israeli source as saying that Jerusalem was – and to some degree still is – concerned about the fact that Obama views Iran “in the context of a broader non-proliferation policy… the Israeli factor did not play prominently.”

Washington has made its reservations clear – “The White House doesn’t want Israel to start a war – not yet, anyway,” a senior administration official told Newsweek.

Mossad Chief Tamir Pardo’s recent trip to DC was meant,

according to a US official privy to matter, “to take the pulse of the Obama Administration and determine what the consequences would be if Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites over American objections.”

The magazine’s source said that Pardo raised many questions, including: “What is our posture on Iran? Are we ready to bomb? Would we (do so later)? What does it mean if (Israel) does it anyway?”

Israel, the report said, has essentially ceased sharing a “significant amount of information” with the US regarding its military preparations for a possible strike.

Keeping up appearances

Newsweek compared Obama’s situation to three-dimensional chess, saying that he must find a way to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, prevent the oil-based global economy from slipping into chaos and “manage the wild card that is Israel.”

“Israel’s national interests are not always in line with Washington’s. And a messy war – or perceived weakness on Iran – could tip the election for the Republicans in November,” the report said.

Obama insists that the financial sanctions imposed on Iran “have serious bite,” but in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran “United States may get drawn into a war that could set the Middle East further aflame and send global markets into a terrified frenzy.”

Meanwhile, it seems both Israeli and American intelligence officials expressed concerns that Obama “might put an end to an elaborate shadow war they had been waging” – referring to the covert cooperation between the Bush administration and Israel, meant to set back Iran’s nuclear development.

Obama eventually listed to his advisers and decided to that he would pursue both the covert and diplomatic paths simultaneously.

Still, the magazine noted that while the US and Israel usually enjoy a strong relationship on security and intelligence matters, the differ on the question of strategy, citing that while Israel has no qualms about assassinating Iranians involved in nuclear research, the US law forbids it.

“The Israelis handled everything that was kinetic, and we did the nonkinetic activities, sometimes along with the Israelis… When it comes to assassinations and industrial ‘accidents’… the Israelis don’t want to say and we don’t want to know,” a Pentagon source said.  

These legal delicacies, the source added, are the reason US intelligence officers are “always careful about what we said to the Israelis in meetings, and they knew why… We often held things back from them – satellite imagery and other kinds of intelligence that could have helped them with their activities.”

Adding to the mix is the well-known frosty relationship between Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The differences regarding the need for an operation in Iran have only increased tensions.

Still, according to the magazine, Israeli officials now believe that Obama “has undergone a positive evolution in his views on Iran”

“Today, when you listen to Obama … you get the feeling the Americans are ready to attack if worse comes to worst,” an Israeli source said.

‘Mossad chief probed US reaction… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

BBC News – Syria rejects new Arab League peace mission proposal.

IDF’s UAV Unit Expanding, Upgrading – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

UAV launch

Israel news photo: Flash 90

The “Sky Rider” unit, IDF’s elite UAV operating force, is implementing a series of changes and upgrades, IDF magazine Bamahane reported. Among other changes, a UAV squad will be assigned to every active battalion in the IDF.

The duration of the course required for joining the unit will be lengthened from 8 months to a year. The additional four months will include collaborative training with other battalions.

In March, graduating officers joining the unit will begin their own training course specific to the unit, as opposed to simply joining the general Combat Officers’ Course.

Several non-commissioned soldiers and commanders will be promoted to officers’ ranks, strengthening the unit’s presence in the field.

“The decision to assign officers will drastically improve the quality of command,” said unit commander, Col. Uri Gonen. “The training an officer undergoes is much longer than that of regular soldiers, and it includes making better, army-wide connections with the various units. In a unit that cooperates so frequently with other units, the commander should feel at home in any unit, from armor to infantry, so that he can effectively manage the dialogue and collaboration between units.”

Within the next year, the Sky Rider unit expects to receive a new version of its trademark UAV, the “Skylark,” from Elbit. The new version will boast improved communication devices and greater operational range. In addition, an operator will have the ability to fly several UAVs simultaneously. The new version will pass operational trials within the next year, and soldiers will begin training with it in November

US admiral says forces prepared to confront Iran – World – MiamiHerald.com.

By ADAM SCHRECK

Associated Press

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/02/12/2637851/us-admiral-says-forces-prepared.html#storylink=cpy

Divided We Stand: On Iran, Obama and Israel are Worlds Apart.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo: Wiki Commons

Nowadays, when President Obama can’t seem to find his way around a condom and a few bishops, it is rather hilarious to entertain a serious discussion about his plans to prevent Iran from going nuclear. On the other hand, was it ever serious?

I know, I know. The President has told us in no uncertain terms that he has not removed “any option from consideration” with regard to Iran – that, before dedicating the rest of this part of his pre-Superbowl interview to trying to alarm the pro-Israeli American public with imagined consequences of any use of force against the ayatollahs. A few days later, an “Obama administration official” was busy reporting to the New York Times that Obama has managed to convince the Israeli Prime Minister to give more time for economic sanctions to work. On the way, this official dismissed the whole Israeli perception of the Iranian threat as “too narrow”, since all that Israelis apparently care about is whether or not the Iranian nuclear facilities are vulnerable to attack from above, and they don’t give much attention to reports about the impact of the international sanctions on the Iranian economy.

The reason for this frustration in the White House is simple. Despite the highfalutin statements to the contrary (which are going to increase in volume as elections approach) since its very inception the Obama administration operates on an assumption that Israeli and American security interests are NOT the same. This is why, while acknowledging the tremendous difference between the threats that a nuclear Iran will pose for Israel and the US, American officials keep insisting that Israel adopts the American view and confirm itself to it. This is logical – after all, if the President himself approaches the Israeli issue without any love or ideological commitment (as even the Democrats freely acknowledge) then Israel is just another client state that must bow before the will of the sponsor, and that’s all there is to it.

Until the American public soundly rebuked the President and his party for this attitude towards Israel at the midterm elections and beyond, this spirit of “you-do-what-I-say-or-else” permeated the whole fabric of Obama’s policy towards the Jewish state. Today, when the Middle East is burning with Obama-induced Islamic fever, and the prospective partner for peace is busy signing unity agreements with Hamas, the administration prefers to dump this recent history into a memory hole. Nevertheless, on Iran, this attitude is still showing.

What else can prompt “two senior US officials” to confirm to NBC News claims that Israel is cooperating with People’s Mujahedin of Iran to kill Iranian scientists – claims made by a senior aide to the Iranian Inquisitor-In-Chief? Besides the cowardly attempt to distance the American superpower from the unfortunate events that befell Iranian bomb-builders and to buy immunity from possible retribution at Israel’s expense, the purpose of the leak was more nefarious – to besmirch Israel in the eyes of the American public by linking the Jewish state to the group that has been accused of killing Americans.

In fact, a dispassionate look at the statements made by both the anonymous “officials” and the party-line commentators leads to a conclusion that the real question for Washington right now isn’t how to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power but how to prevent Israel from acting in its self-defense and to convince the Americans that the Jewish state is being lead towards an unnecessary confrontation by a bunch of irresponsible, borderline psychotic scoundrels who are completely oblivious to reality. If this is glaringly similar to the picture that the opinion page of “Haaretz” regularly presents to its readers, it’s because on both sides of the ocean those voices come from the same background. They are a product of a fervent belief that the removal of the Jewish presence from Judea and Samaria is an instant cure for Israel’s security problems and that Netanyahu’s “obsession” with Iran is nothing but a clever distraction from the real issue – freedom for Palestine.

For a good example, look no further than this article by president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations Leslie Gelb, written as if he addresses a not particularly intelligent student, not the elected leader of the sovereign state who (it so happens) was right on Iran all along. In one not particularly long piece Gelb, a former NYT columnist (that explains a lot) has managed to portray Israeli leaders as liars, to lecture the Israeli Defense Minister – a decorated veteran of many battles – about the possible casualties from an attack on Iran, and to demand from Israel – here it is – to surrender its military strategy and threat assessment to the American judgment. While the Iranian leaders were busy producing new and interesting quotes about their unwavering commitment to the cause of eradication of Israel, talking heads and writing hands representing the “Obama base” deplored… “the Israeli saber-rattling”.

Despite the presidential assurances about being “in a lockstep” with Israel on Iran, right now the only conclusion the rational observer in Jerusalem (and in Tehran) can arrive at is of extreme discord between the Israeli and American perception of the Iran threat, desirable ways to confront it and the time-frame for a military action. Such is the gap between Jerusalem and Washington, that while ordinary Israelis upload videos like this to YouTube, graphically explaining what lies in Israel’s future if Iran will acquire nuclear weapons, the Democratic chairwoman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Dianne Feinstein calls on Obama to prove to Iran that “we are serious about a deal”. Instead of keeping up the pressure on Iran, American foreign policy mandarins recommend that “covert operations and public pressure be demonstrably reduced” to create a right atmosphere for a fruitful dialog. Meanwhile, in Iran centrifuges are spinning, fast.

WND » U.S., Israel face unconventional weapons threat » Print.

Fear Iran, al-Qaida, Pakistani intelligence elements coordinating attack

Published: 4 hours ago

TEL AVIV – If the U.S. or Israel strikes Iran, fringe elements of the Pakistani intelligence apparatus that allegedly work with al-Qaida may attempt to coordinate terrorist attacks internationally, including using unconventional weapons, according to Arab diplomats in Pakistan.

The Arab diplomats, speaking to WND, said they did not have specifics on the nature of the attack, such as whether it would employ chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. The diplomats also said they did not have specifics about the exact location of any possible terrorist threat.

The Arab diplomats said there is little fear that Pakistan itself would get directly involved in any conflict involving Iran.

Elements of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies long have been accused of working with al-Qaida, a charge parroted worldwide after Osama bin Laden was discovered living in Pakistan near a military facility less than two hours from the country’s capital.

It is unknown whether al-Qaida itself possesses unconventional weapons. In 2009, there were unsubstantiated reports that an al-Qaida affiliate in Algeria closed a base after an experiment with unconventional weapons went awry, according to a senior U.S. intelligence official.

Many terrorism analysts have reported on al-Qaida attempts to purchase or obtain unconventional weapons over the years, or to steal material from nuclear sites. Just last year, Reuters reported that radioactive material was stolen from the site of a nuclear power plant in Egypt during protests outside the site.

Some fear the future possibility that al-Qaida, working with a state actor such as Iran, could carry out an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, attack off America’s coastline, if the terrorist group could obtain both a nuclear device and a missile.

The information from the Arab diplomats in Pakistan comes after ABC News reported last week that Jewish and Israeli institutions in the U.S. are on high alert over Iranian-supported terrorist threats.

Precautions were put into place by the institutions, ABC reported Feb. 3, citing a letter from the head of security for the Israeli consul general for the Mid-Atlantic Region.

The letter reportedly related a higher security threat to “guarded sites” such as Israeli embassies and consulates, and “soft sites” such as synagogues, as well as Jewish schools, restaurants and Jewish community centers.

ABC reported that local and regional law enforcement and intelligence officials in U.S. and Canadian cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Toronto have increased security at Israeli and Jewish institutions.

Also last week, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper warned in written congressional testimony that “some Iranian officials – probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States.”

Iran, meanwhile, has long faced accusations of working with al-Qaida.

Last week, U.S. officials expressed concern that Iran may have freed a group of al-Qaida members held for almost a decade under house arrest in the Islamic Republic.

As early as 2009, WND quoted an Egyptian security official warning that Iranian agents and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia were working with cells of al-Qaida to carry out attacks in Egypt.

In November, WND reported that in response to any future Israeli military strike on its nuclear sites, Iran has been training al-Qaeda elements in the Egyptian Sinai desert on how to coordinate retaliatory attacks, according to a senior Egyptian security official.

The al-Qaida attacks are meant to target both Israeli and Egyptian installations, the security official said, as part of an Iranian plot to widen any Israeli-Iranian conflict to involve other countries.

The Egyptian official said there is also information Iran has been working with Islamic Salafist groups in Jordan that are allied with al-Qaida.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards helped to train al-Qaida elements in the Sinai and Gaza Strip to carry out large-scale attacks, including missile attacks, cross-border incursions, suicide bombings and explosions targeting infrastructure, such as oil and gas pipelines, the official said.

Alan Dershowitz: Warning Iran Against Hitting ‘Soft’ American Targets – WSJ.com.

The Obama administration should deem an attack on a synagogue or embassy as tantamount to a military attack on the U.S.

By ALAN M. DERSHOWITZ

The Iranian government has now made crystal clear that it is at war not only with Israel and Zionism but with Jewish communities throughout the world. As Iran’s Rafah news website—identified with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—threatened last month, Iran plans to “take the war beyond the borders of Iran, and beyond the borders of the region.” And last week an Iranian News Agency headline declared that “Israeli people must be annihilated.”

These and other recent threats have, according to news reports, led Israeli and American authorities to believe that Iran is preparing attacks against Israeli embassies and consulates world-wide, as well as against Jewish houses of prayer, schools, community centers, restaurants and other soft targets.

If this were to happen, it would not be the first time that Iranian agents have bombed or attacked Israeli and Jewish targets in distant countries. Back in 1992, Iranian agents blew up the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, killing and injuring hundreds of civilians, many of whom were children. The Argentine government conducted a thorough criminal investigation and indicted several Iranian officials, but those officials were well beyond the reach of Argentine legal authorities and remain at liberty.

The U.S. government should deem any Iranian attack against Israeli or Jewish soft targets in America to be an armed military attack on the U.S.—to which the U.S. will retaliate militarily at a time and place of its choosing. Washington should not treat such an attack as the Argentine authorities did, merely as a criminal act.

Under international law, an attack on an embassy is an attack both on the embassy’s country and on the country in which the embassy is located. And under the charter of the United Nations, an attack against a nation’s citizens on its territory is an act of armed aggression that justifies retaliatory military action.

An attack on an American synagogue is no different than an attack on the World Trade Center or on American aviation. We correctly regarded those attacks as acts of war committed by al Qaeda and facilitated by the government of Afghanistan, and we responded militarily. All American citizens, regardless of their religious affiliation, are equally entitled to the protection of the American military.

U.S. retaliation could take the form of military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Though such action might be pre-emptive in its intention, it would be reactive as a matter of international law, since it would be in response to an armed attack by Iran. It wouldn’t require Security Council approval, since Article 51 of the U.N. Charter explicitly preserves the right of member nations to respond to any armed attack.

This is not to argue against such an attack if Iran decides not to go after soft American targets. It may become necessary for our military to target Iranian nuclear facilities if economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts do not succeed and if the Iranian government decides to cross red lines by militarizing its nuclear program and placing it in deep underground bunkers. But the legal justification for such an attack would be somewhat different. It would be predominantly pre-emptive or preventive, though it would have reactive elements as well, since Iran has armed our enemies in Iraq and caused the death of many American soldiers.

If Israel were compelled to act alone against Iran’s nuclear program, it too would be reacting as well as pre-empting, since Iran has effectively declared war against the Jewish state and its people. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently confirmed Iran’s role as Hezbollah’s active partner in its war against Israel, claiming that it “could not have been victorious” in its 2006 war without the military support of Tehran. Iran’s ongoing support for Hezbollah and Hamas, coupled with its direct participation in the bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, constitute sufficient casus belli to justify a reactive Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program.

The best outcome, of course, would be to deter Iran from both foreign aggression and domestic nuclearization by making the costs too high, even for the most zealous or adventurous Iranian leaders. But for deterrence to succeed, where sanctions and other tactics appear to be failing, the threat of military action must be credible. Right now it is not, because Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and other administration officials are sending mixed signals, not only with regard to the U.S. but also with regard to Israel.

The administration must speak with an unambiguous and credible voice that leaves no doubt in the minds of Iranian leaders that America won’t tolerate attacks on our citizens or a nuclear-armed Iran. As George Washington wisely counseled in his second inaugural address, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”

Mr. Dershowitz is a law professor at Harvard. His latest book is “Trials of Zion” (Grand Central Publishing, 2010).