Israel or Iran – who will strike first? | Adelaide Now.
A view of Iran’s heavy water nuclear facilities, near the central city of Arak / AP
ISRAEL is increasing its pressure on the United States to support pre-emptive strikes against Iran, writes Paul Toohey
Israel believes Iran is close to completing a nuclear warhead with its name of it.
The US, which despite some differences under President Barack Obama’s watch remains an unflinching ally of Israel, believes the world has much more breathing space before Iran builds a bomb.
Strange things are happening that sometimes look more like a George Clooney political thriller than real life. Iran’s nuclear scientists go missing or are assassinated. Purported nuclear sites in Iran disappear off the map in explosions visible around Tehran.
Yet not Iran, Israel or the US seems to know anything about them.
There is a steady sense of inevitability to an Israeli strike, with The Washington Post newspaper last week quoting US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta as saying he believes there is a “strong likelihood” Israel will go to war with Iran as early as April.
If Israel does launch strikes, it would presumably attempt to contain the war to a short series of intense raids using the 500 bunker-busting bombs Mr Obama secretly sold it in 2009.
It is hard to imagine Israel taking unilateral action on its main regional enemy against the wishes of the US, but the sale of the bunker-busters – which are designed to penetrate 5m-thick concrete – suggest the Obama administration has sympathy for Israel striking first to defend itself.
The US has a “very good estimate” of when Iran might produce a weapon, Mr Obama said this week.
“We are prepared to exercise these options should they arise,” he said during an interview with NBC.
In recent weeks, hectares of US newsprint have been dedicated to this issue of Israel going to war against Iran.
The question only seems to be if it goes with the blessing of the US, or without it. Delegations reportedly are moving back and forth between Washington and Tel Aviv, arguing the points.
Reports typically depict Israel as demanding that the US politically support its unilateral action, while the US urges Israel to keep its powder dry because there is no imminent nuclear threat from Iran.
The Republican presidential election campaign is also becoming a staging ground for support for Israel.
THIS week presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich outlined a scenario designed to terrify voters into supporting him as a much stronger pro-Israel ally than Mr Obama.
“You think about an Iranian nuclear weapon,” Mr Gingrich said. “You think about the dangers to Cleveland or to Columbus or to Cincinnati or to New York. Remember what it felt like on 9/11 when 3000 Americans were killed.
“Now imagine an attack where you add two zeros. And it’s 300,000 dead. Maybe half a million wounded.
“This is a real danger. This is not science fiction. That’s why I think it’s very important we have the strongest possible national security.”
Iran has been accused of attempting to stage terror plots in the US, notably a foiled alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador by blowing up a Washington restaurant. And there is a long-standing assumption that Iran would happily lay waste an American or Israeli city with a nuclear bomb.
Iran has denied it is trying to blow up diplomats, and insists it is developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
Late in January, US intelligence chiefs gave testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on where they believed the Iranians were headed.
The director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, said he thought Iran was willing to stage limited terror attacks but said he did believe Iran had yet decided if it would turn its nuclear program to menacing purposes.
The CIA director David Petraeus appeared to take a different position, saying Iran already had more than enough enriched uranium to pursue peaceful needs.
Reports out of Israel this week had Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quoting to his cabinet the words of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who recently said Israel was “a cancerous tumour that must be cut off”.
International sanctions do not appear to be dimming Iran’s aggression to Israel, which refuses to rule out attacking Iran.
The consequences of a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran are almost unreadable.
There seems little question Israel would prevail in a pre-emptive series of strikes, which would set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions at least 24 months.
Some believe strikes would provoke Iran’s Lebanon-based little brother, Hezbollah, to strike at neighbouring Israel.
Others argue that any plans by Israel to hit Iran must simultaneously involve it taking out Hezbollah’s sizeable missile array.
That would mean Israel was singlehandedly fighting a war on two fronts, and there are doubts if it has the resources.
WHILE most Arab states have little affection for Iran, they will react angrily if Lebanese citizens become victims of Israeli strikes.
Gershon Baskin, co-chairman of the Israel Palestine Centre for Research and Information, writing in the Jerusalem Post this week, said he believed plans to strike Iran were in advanced stages of planning.
He suggested there was “no chance” the US would join Israel, which meant Europe would stay out of it as well.
He outlined a scenario of Washington expressing “concern” about Israel’s unilateral actions, but secretly approving.
Widespread chatter that an Israel strike would lead to terror groups targeting Israel and its silent partner, the US, seems flawed.
They already are targets.
With China and Russia this week vetoing a UN Security Council resolution that called for regime change in Syria, the situation in that country drags on murderously.
It is inevitable, however, that the oppressed Sunni majority will claim power at some point.
Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad counts on his friendship with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who reportedly has placed one of his senior military leaders in Mr Assad’s war room.
It is argued, by some, a strike against Iran by Israel would give Syrians the impetus to push hard against Mr Assad and topple him.
That also would benefit Israel, because a new Sunni regime in Syria would stop the flow of weapons from Shi’ite-controlled Iran to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
Mr Baskin also claims that to offer some pacification for its pre-emptive aggression, Washington could, after strikes, pressure Israel to make a positive international statement on Palestine.
That could be offering it full statehood and joining other world players in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty from which it has so far has stayed away.
If the commentators and urgers are right, Israel will hit Iran in the northern spring.
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