WarSclerotic

Syrian Troops Pound Homs as Russia Warns Against Intervention | News | English.

Photo: Reuters

Residents rest in a shelter in Baba Amro near Homs, February 8, 2012. Syrian forces thrusting into the rebellious city of Homs, killing dozens of civilians.

Voice of America

Syrian troops are continuing their assault on the protest hub of Homs, reportedly killing dozens of civilians, as Russia said the world faces a growing “cult of violence” in international affairs and warned the West against outside intervention in Syria.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said government forces used tanks, rockets and mortars Wednesday to subdue resistance in Homs, killing at least 50 people and heavily damaging more than 20 buildings in a number of the city’s rebel-held districts. Homs is under the fifth day of a relentless offensive that activists say has killed hundreds of people.

_{Undated citizen journalism image provided by Local Coordination Committees in Syria shows man weeping as he sits next to a man who was purportedly killed in shelling by Syrian government forces, Homs, February 8, 2012. (AP Photo)}

Casualty figures cannot be confirmed because Syria restricts independent reporting.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin condemned all violence “regardless of its source,” but said the world “cannot act like a bull in a china shop.” He told Russian religious leaders Wednesday that outside forces should let Syrians settle their conflict “independently,” saying Moscow must not let events like those in Libya and Syria be repeated at home.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad delegated his deputy to hold a dialogue with the opposition after meeting Russia’s top diplomat Tuesday in Damascus. Efforts by the Arab League and Russia to organize talks have been rejected by Syrian opposition groups angered by the Assad government’s deadly crackdown on the 11-month-old uprising.

_{Free Syrian Army (FSA) members in Saqba, a Damascus suburb, February 8, 2012. (Reuters photo)}

Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron said Wednesday he had “very little confidence” in the Russian-Syrian efforts, while French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Assad’s promises were merely manipulation and should not be believed. The Syrian leader said Tuesday he will push ahead with promised reforms and soon set a date for a referendum on a new constitution aimed at broadening political participation.

U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay called for urgent international action to protect civilians in Syria, saying she is “appalled” by the government’s “willful assault on the city of Homs.” Pillay also said is it time for the international community to “cut through the politics and take action” to protect the civilian population.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is due to arrive in Washington Wednesday to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has said the United States will work with other nations to tighten sanctions against Mr. Assad’s government and deny it arms in the absence of a United Nations resolution.

_{Undated citizen journalism image provided by Local Coordination Committees in Syria shows mourners gathered around bodies of people allegedly killed by Syrian government forces in Maarat al-Noman, Idlib province, February 8, 2012. (AP photo)}

The White House said Tuesday Washington is exploring the possibility of providing humanitarian aid to Syrians, in cooperation with U.S. allies. Western powers and Arab nations have repeatedly said they do not want to intervene militarily in the Syrian crisis. The Obama administration shut its embassy in Damascus Monday as part of a Western and Arab campaign to isolate Assad and pressure him into stopping the crackdown.

France, Italy and Spain recalled their ambassadors to Syria on Tuesday, citing the Assad government’s continued repression. The six Gulf Cooperation Council states, led by Saudi Arabia, also withdrew their ambassadors from Damascus and expelled Syrian envoys in response to the worsening violence.

The moves came after Russia and China vetoed a Western and Arab-backed U.N. Security Council resolution that would have endorsed an Arab League plan for Assad to step aside, order his troops to stand down and enact democratic reforms. Moscow and Beijing said they blocked the measure because they perceived it as taking sides in a domestic conflict and providing a possible pretext for foreign military intervention.

The Syrian government blames the mayhem on “armed terrorists” bent on dividing and sabotaging the country.

Some information for this report was provided by AP, AFP and Reuters.

Middle East Crumbles Around Obama’s Foreign Policy.

Thousands are dead in Syria, with more blood spilled each day. Iran is within arm’s reach of a nuclear weapon, threatening Israel’s very existence.

And in Egypt, 19 Americans are banned from leaving the country, making them veritable hostages in an unfriendly land. All indications are that the Middle East is crumbling, and President Barack Obama’s foreign policy is collapsing right along with it.

First look toward Homs, Syria — ground zero in the 11-month-old uprising against the brutal government of Bashar al-Assad, which is unleashing death upon its people minute by minute and hour by hour. The United Nations estimates that Assad’s regime has killed more than 5,000 anti-government protesters in the last 11 months, with 200 killed on Friday night alone. The Arab League has stationed observers in country, whose mission was to oversee compliance with a peace plan. That failed.

The Obama Administration rushed to the United Nations Security Council and attempted to pass a resolution calling for Assad to step aside. Predictably, China and Russia laid down a veto. On Monday, the United States finally closed the doors to its embassy in Damascus and withdrew the diplomatic staff over continuing security concerns. Meanwhile, intelligence experts are examining the risk of terrorists gaining control of Syria’s weapons stockpiles should the Assad regime fall.

To the east in Iran, the regime’s full-steam-ahead pursuit of nuclear weapons is reaching a crescendo, with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently remarking that the country could build a bomb within one year and have the means for delivering it one or two years later.

Finally, in Egypt, officials there published a list of 43 people, including 19 Americans, accused of interfering in Egypt’s internal politics. They are not allowed to leave the country and could soon be brought to trial on claims that they illegally funded political groups in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. Heritage’s James Phillips explains that “they have become hostages in a much larger struggle: the struggle for freedom in Egypt against an unholy alliance between Egypt’s transitional military government and the Islamist political parties who will soon assume power.”

President Obama and members of his Cabinet tried to reach Egyptian leaders on the matter, but in the words of Lorne Craner, head of the pro-democracy organization IRI, “things are getting worse . . . We are all scratching our heads over here. I did two tours at State and one at the [National Security Council]. If the president called someone, something gets worked out.” But as was the case under President Jimmy Carter, the White House appears helpless while Americans are held captive.

None of these crises occurs in a vacuum — except for the vacuum of a cogent U.S. strategy for dealing with these ever-worsening conditions. Since President Obama took office, he has pursued a diplomatic strategy of charm and restraint: attempting to broker peace between Israel and Palestine, engaging with Syria and Iran, and withdrawing from Iraq. Now we are seeing the results.

The international rogue that is Iran continues to rise, along with its threat to the world. Thousands are dead in Syria under a brutal dictator while the international community is serving up effete condemnations. America’s ally Israel appears ready to take matters into its own hands in order to ensure its survival, while prospects for peace with Palestine remain dim. U.S. citizens are trapped in Egypt as anti-Western Islamists seek to consolidate their power. And Iraq’s once-peaceful prospects have been marred by one terrorist attack after another after America’s military forces departed.  Obama has failed at every turn to safeguard U.S. interests in the region or take effective proactive initiatives to deal with threat of rising extremism and spiraling violence that could lead to regional conflict.

There are actions the United States can and should take. Phillips explains that in Syria,  “the best assistance that the United States can give to ease the suffering of Syrians is to help speed the fall of the Assad regime.” And it can do it by working with European allies, Turkey, and Arab states to escalate sanctions, provide humanitarian relief to refugees, and provide diplomatic and economic support for the Syrian opposition — while holding back from military intervention.

To address Israel and Iran, Phillips and James Carafano advise that the United States must have a clear and unambiguous policy that it will protect itself and its interests.

As for Egypt, Phillips writes that America should “freeze U.S. foreign aid to Cairo and give Egypt’s new leaders an ultimatum: free the American hostages or permanently lose U.S. foreign aid and any American help in refinancing Egypt’s burdensome national debt.”

More broadly, President Obama must fundamentally change course toward the Middle East. His policy of engagement has not worked, and the world is seeing the results. The Middle East is crumbling, and an ineffectual and inert Obama Administration is leading from behind with a foreign policy that has entirely failed to cope with the rapidly devolving conditions along the Mediterranean’s southeastern shores and beyond, with consequences reaching around the world.

Iran’s Arsenal Of Sunburn Missiles Is More Than Enough To Close The Strait.

Any good armchair general with a good search engine and time on their hands can figure out in a hurry that the song and dance about Iran being unable to close the Strait if Hormuz for long  is just a plain crock. Worse than a crock. Yet, this big Orwellian lie persists, so once again I have to set the record straight. Iran has the capability of not only closing the Strait for some time, but creating a world of hurt for the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.

Iran possesses a build up of anti-ship weapons called Sunburn missiles, which it has procured from Russia and China over the last decade. These are top-notch weapons developed by the Russians as a low-cost challenge to the expensive, tech-heavy weaponry of the U.S., and specifically the aircraft carrier task force.  A conflict, which I now assign a high probability to [see Scenario for an Israel Attack on Iran], is going to be a huge test of a global-naval doctrine that Russia and China will watch with tremendous interest. That’s why I think they have armed Iran to the teeth. The big question: How many of these weapons does Iran have? I would suggest thousands, and that this is the real show.

Given that U.S. crony logic seems to be about squandering money on weapons in the military-industrial complex, I fear for young sailors and marines on the 5th Fleet. Don’t get me wrong, the US Navy is professional, but the Strait doesn’t allow for the normal defense in depth available in open seas, in fact it offers the Iranians a cross fire setup or triangulation (see map of Strait below) . If you read discussions on various military sites, there is a lively debate on American ship defense system like the Aegis.  However, almost nobody claims this to be fully protective against ship strikes. And an oil tanker, no way.  It is important that the US is working on new generation lasar defense to counter these missiles, however they are still in development. This puts added pressure for Iran to have this fight now, not later. The following is from  ”Russian Military Equality Network. (I have cleaned up the English a bit]

U.S. Navy Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy Keating said that due to lack of sufficient funds for the procurement of simulated target missile defense system,  the U.S. Navy can not now afford to fight “the club” category of supersonic anti-ship missiles. It is reported that the U.S. military that is used to simulate the “club” missile target missile is still being developed, and is expected to be put into use in 2014.

The Sunburn is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, designed to fly as low as 9 feet above ground/water at more than 1,500 miles per hour (mach 2+).  The missile uses a violent pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off Phalanx and other U.S. anti-missile defense systems. Given their low cost, they’re perfectly suited for close quarter naval conflict in the bathtub-like Persian Gulf.

The Sunburn is versatile, and can be fired from practically any platform, including just a flat bed truck. It has a 90-mile range, which is all that is necessary in the small Persian Gulf and 40-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz.  Fired from shore a missile could hit a ship in the Strait in less than a minute. It presents a real threat to the U.S. Navy. Tests using the Aegean and RAM ship defense technology stops the Sunburn 95% of the time, but such testing was done in open seas, not a bathtub. The payload hit with a 750-pound conventional warhead  can be witnessed at 1:53-1:57 in this video. Not enough to sink a carrier, but it could take down smaller capital ships and crew.

You don’t have to be Hannibal preparing for the Battle of Cannae to see that the Strait is a potential shooting gallery. Without a doubt, Iran has plotted and mapped every firing angle and location along the Gulf, their home-court coastline. This is going to put enormous interdiction pressure on U.S. warplanes to spot and destroy platforms, which may be as simple as a flat-bed truck. In reality, Iran has dug in from Jask in the east to Bandar in the west and can easily cover any ship, commercial or military, traversing the narrow Strait.

Equally disturbing is Iran’s missile range for the entire Persian Gulf. Bahrain itself could be hit by the longer-range version of the Sunburn, the Onyx. Is the U.S. (which has three aircraft carrier groups in play currently) going to stick around or clear out to the Oman Sea, leaving control of the oil lanes to Iran? Or will they stay and slug it out with the Iranians? If so, at what cost? Iran’s strategic advantage may mean some losses for the 5th Fleet, if this gets played out on Iran’s home court.

William Hamilton: Iran: Bomb now or bomb later? | SkyHiDailyNews.com.

As this column is being written, it might be overtaken by the Israel Defense Force (IDF) attacking several places where Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, certain facts regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions merit everyone’s attention.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad, the lunatics in charge of Iran, are committed to the production of nuclear weapons and also committed to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. One or two nuclear weapons hitting Tel Aviv would mean the extinction of Israel as a viable nation-state. Present day Israel occupies less than 2 percent of the land of the Middle East. It is the compactness of Israel that makes it so vulnerable to nuclear attack.

Mr. Obama’s Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, in addition to cutting our armed forces in half and getting ready to pull the plug on Afghanistan, is worried that the IDF will attack Iran sooner rather than later. For his boss politically, the best time for the IDF to attack is this October, right before the November presidential election.

The Israelis are well aware that diplomatic and economic sanctions will not stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Russia’s Vladimir Putin and the Saudis know that it is not in the interest of Russia or Saudi Arabia to have neighboring Iran be a nuclear power. But when the USSR collapsed and Russia was so strapped for cash, Russia sold nuclear materials and scientific talent to Iran.

But now, cash-in-hand, Russia is sabotaging Iran’s nuclear program. Of course, the assassinations of five of Iran’s top nuclear scientists over the last five years are blamed on Israel’s Mossad and the CIA. The recent explosion at Iran’s main nuclear facility that killed the general in charge of the program is also blamed on the Mossad and the CIA. Also, someone inflicted the Stuxnet Virus on Iran’s computers.

The organization most likely to have carried out these acts is Russia’s Sluzhbra Vneshney Razvedki (SVR), which carries on the mission of the former KBG’s First Directorate, i.e., foreign intelligence operations. Not even the Mossad is capable of having as many agents on the ground in Iran as the SVR. If the CIA has any assets in Iran, that would be way above Top Secret.

When completed, what will be Iran’s nuclear capability? IDF General Aviv Kochavi says Iran has enough material to make four atomic bombs. Iran has missiles that can not only reach Tel Aviv but also New York, Moscow, and Beijing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak contend there is only a brief time before the Iranian nuclear program reaches the “zone of immunity,” when it would be too late to delay or destroy the Iranian production facilities.

Could this be done with non-nuclear weapons? Yes, the easiest way would be for U.S. B-2 stealth bombers to drop GBU-57 A/Bs on each of Iran’s nuclear sites. The GBU-57 can penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. The GBU-57s should be followed immediately with GBU-43/B thermo-baric bombs. The GBU-43/Bs would suck all the oxygen out of the air and melt the underground facilities.

Viewed from above, such attacks would not be readily apparent, providing the Iranian dictatorship with a face-saving opportunity to act as if nothing had happened. A situation reminiscent of Soviet workers, who joked: “We pretend to work and the government pretends to pay us.”

Probably, the IDF has non-nuclear weapons to do the penetration; however, they might borrow thermo-baric bombs from Russia whose thermo-baric bombs are four times more powerful than our GBU-43/B. But a 1,000-mile delivery is a problem. To reach Iran, the Saudis would have to give overflight permission. Memo to readers: Vitamin D helps deal with nuclear radiation.

Nationally syndicated columnist, William Hamilton, was educated at the University of Oklahoma, the George Washington University, the U.S Naval War College, the University of Nebraska, and Harvard University.

Iran: US, Israel vulnerable to c… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Syrian tank on fire in Homs

British and Qatari special operations units are operating with rebel forces under cover in the Syrian city of Homs just 162 kilometers from Damascus, according to debkafile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources. The foreign troops are not engaged in direct combat with the Syrian forces bombarding different parts of Syria’s third largest city of 1.2 million. They are tactical advisers, manage rebel communications lines and relay their requests for arms, ammo, fighters and logistical aid to outside suppliers, mostly in Turkey.

This site is the first to report the presence of foreign military forces in any of the Syrian uprising’s embattled areas.
Our sources report the two foreign contingencies have set up four centers of operation – in the northern Homs district of Khaldiya, Bab Amro in the east, and Bab Derib and Rastan in the north. Each district is home to about a quarter of a million people.

More details as they unfold will be available in the coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue out Friday.

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly, click here
The presence of the British and Qatari troops was seized on by Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan for the new plan he unveiled to parliament in Ankara Tuesday, Feb. 7. Treating the British-Qatari contingents as the first foreign foot wedged through the Syrian door, his plan hinges on consigning a new Turkish-Arab force to Homs through that door and under the protection of those contingents. Later, they would go to additional flashpoint cities.

In the close to eleven months of the Syrian revolt, Erdogan has hatched more than one scheme for countering the Assad regime’s savage crackdown on dissent. His most persistent was a plan for the creation of military buffer zones to shelter rebels and civilians persecuted by the Syrian authorities. But nothing came of those plans because, every time they came up, Assad reinforced his contingents on the Turkish border and deployed air defense and surface-to-surface missile batteries. He made it clear that the first Turk crossing the border would spark a full-scale war.

It is hard to say at this point whether the latest Turkish leader’s current plan is any more practical than his earlier schemes. For now, he has put the ball in the American court.  Wednesday, Feb. 8, he sent Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Washington to ask for the Obama administration’s cooperation. The Turkish prime minister is also in urgent consultation with Saudi and several other Gulf rulers in the hope of bringing them aboard.

The British-Qatari troop presence in Homs was at the center of Assad’s talks in Damascus Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian SVR intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov. Senior Syrian intelligence officers laid their updates from the field before the Russian visitors and received SVR data and evaluations in return.

Western intelligence officials familiar with the talks describe the atmosphere between Assad and the Russian officials as uneasy and tense. Later, Lavrov reported optimistically that he had received assurances from the Syrian ruler of an end to the violence, talks with all Syrian parties and an early referendum on a new constitution for political reforms. His account was no more than prevarication to conceal the opposite outcome of their talks. In fact, their conversation focused on more violence, namely, Assad’s plans for his next assault on rebels and protesters and his military response to the rising covert presence of foreign Western, Arab and Muslim troops in Syria.

debkafile’s military sources report that President Assad has given a kinsman, Gen. Zuhair al-Assad, authority to stamp the Homs revolt into the ground.  The general who is in his thirties commands the 90th Syrian Infantry Brigade, which is the backbone of the military force battering the city for the past five days at the cost of a death toll soaring into hundreds.

The Associated Press: EU set to adopt new sanctions against Syria.

BRUSSELS (AP) — A senior EU official say the bloc will soon impose harsher sanctions against Syria as it seeks to weaken the regime and end President Bashar Assad’s crackdown against political opponents.

The official said Wednesday the new measures may include bans on the import of Syrian phosphates, on commercial flights between Syria and Europe, and on financial transactions with the country’s central bank.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with EU rules, said some measures would be adopted at the EU foreign ministers meeting on Feb. 27, but it’s not yet clear which.

The EU has already banned oil imports from Syria, and imposed visa bans and asset freezes against government officials and military and police officers.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.

BEIRUT (AP) — Syrian President Bashar Assad wants his vice president to hold talks with the opposition groups, Russia’s foreign minister said, as activists reported that dozens died Wednesday in government bombings of cities and villages across Syria.

A day after holding talks with Assad in an emergency meeting in Damascus, Sergey Lavrov told reporters in Moscow that the Syrian leader has “delegated the responsibility of holding such a dialogue to Vice President (Farouk) al-Sharaa.”

Lavrov blamed both Assad’s regime and opposition forces for instigating the violence that has killed thousands of people since March. “On both sides there are people that aim at an armed confrontation, not a dialogue,” he said.

His comments came as Syrian troops bombed residential neighborhoods in the central city of Homs, the northern province of Idlib, southern region of Daraa and the mountain town of Zabadani, in what activists say is the regime’s final push to retake areas controlled by the rebels.

Activists said at least 50 people died in Wednesday’s shelling of Homs, which has been under a relentless regime offensive for the past five days. Hundreds are believed to have been killed there since Saturday.

Syria’s state-run TV reported that gunmen fired mortar rounds at the oil refinery in Homs, one of two in Syria, setting two fuel tankers on fire.

Assad’s regime is becoming increasingly isolated over its bloody crackdown on dissent. Five European countries and six Arab Gulf nations have pulled their ambassadors out of Damascus, and the U.S. has closed its embassy in Syria. Germany, whose envoy left Syria this month, also said he would not be replaced.

Though increasingly ostracized internationally, the Syrian president was bolstered by Tuesday’s visit from Lavrov and Russia’s intelligence chief, Mikhail Fradkov. During the talks, the Russians pushed for a solution to the Syrian crisis that would include reforms by the regime and a dialogue with the opposition — but not for Assad to step down.

Assad said Syria was determined to hold a national dialogue with the opposition and independent figures, and that his government was “ready to cooperate with any effort that boosts stability in Syria,” according to state news agency SANA.

The Syrian opposition rejects any talks with the regime and says they accept nothing less than Assad’s departure.

On Saturday, Russia and China blocked a Western- and Arab-backed U.N. Security Council resolution supporting calls for Assad to hand over some powers to his vice president as a way to defuse the 11-month-old crisis.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 50 people were killed in Wednesday’s shelling of the Homs neighborhoods of Bayadah, Baba Amr, Khaldiyeh and Karm el-Zeytoun. The group also said that 23 homes were heavily damaged in Baba Amr alone.

Omar Shaker, an activist in Baba Amr, said his neighborhood was under “very intense shelling” by tanks, mortars, artilleries and heavy machine guns. Shaker added that he counted five bodies Wednesday in his district.

“The situation is dire. We are short of food, water and medical aid. Doctors have collapsed after treating the wounded without rest for five days,” Shaker said. “We want Lavrov to come and spend a night in Homs to see what we have been passing through.”

The activist urged the international community to set up a safe passage so that women and children can leave volatile areas of Homs.

The head of the Observatory, Rami Abdul-Rahman, said the regime was trying “exhaust rebels in preparation for storming neighborhoods.”

The Observatory and another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, also reported intense clashes between troops loyal to Assad and defectors on Wednesday in the province of Idlib, bordering Turkey. The Observatory said at least five soldiers were killed in the clashes.

The LCC said troops backed by tanks were also shelling and pushing forward in the southern village of Tseel in the Daraa province that borders Jordan. The group also said that rebel-controlled Zabadani, west of Damascus, was subjected to intense shelling since the early hours of Wednesday.

The U.N. estimates the government crackdown has killed more than 5,400 people since March, making Syria’s conflict one of the deadliest of the Arab Spring.

Hundreds more are believed to have died since the U.N. released that figure in January, but the chaos in the country has made it impossible for the world body to update its figures.

The Coming Israel–Iran Confrontation – Jack David – National Review Online.

Events are conspiring to precipitate a cataclysmic confrontation with Iran. Time has nearly expired for international sanctions — even the so-called tough and crippling ones — to keep Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons. The U.S. soon will not be able to avoid making a choice: Will it meet the challenge of the coming confrontation or shrink from it? Either way, there will be consequences for U.S. interests abroad and at home.

During last Friday’s prayers in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would continue its nuclear program. His remarks were broadcast on Iranian state television. In these remarks to worshippers, Khamenei reiterated Iran’s threat to wipe Israel — “a cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut” — off the map, and averred that Iran will aid any nation or group that attacks Israel. The Associated Press reports that he explicitly acknowledged that Iran has supported and will support Hezbollah and Hamas attacks.

The gravity of the supreme leader’s remarks is underlined by Iran’s inexorable progress toward acquiring nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them. Iran already has missiles that could deliver a nuclear weapon throughout the Middle East and parts of Europe. It also has made great progress on technology for long-range missiles that could carry nuclear weapons and that could reach North America, as evidenced by three successful launches of orbiting satellites, the most recent last week.

Also last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and high-level Israeli officials said what many have been predicting — that Israel is going to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities unless Iran verifiably eliminates its nuclear-weapons program immediately. Mr. Panetta even gave a time frame. He predicted that the Israeli attack will be launched sometime in the April-to-June period.

For Israel, the risk of waiting is immense. As has been said, Israel cannot take a 10 percent chance of 100 percent annihilation. In addition, Iran is fortifying the defenses of its nuclear sites, and they may soon be nearly impossible to destroy. It will have reached an “immunity zone,” as Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has described it.

The supreme leader’s vitriol at last Friday’s prayers was not restricted to Israel. It was targeted at the U.S. as well. This should be no surprise. Iran since 1980 has declared the U.S. to be its enemy. It has attacked the U.S. through proxies repeatedly — e.g. the 1983 attack on the Marines barracks in Lebanon that killed 241 American servicemen, the 1996 Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. Air Force personnel, continuing Iranian support for attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003, and last October’s foiled plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the U.S. on U.S. soil.

A nuclear-armed Iran with the hegemonic ambitions Supreme Leader Khamenei also acknowledged in his Friday prayer remarks would view itself as free to step up its aggression against American personnel and assets. It would also step up aggressive action and intimidation of the U.S.’s Arab allies in the Middle East. And, of course, it might well try to make good on its threat to wipe Israel off the map.

A failure on America’s part to support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would have serious consequences for the U.S. at home and abroad. The inevitable Iranian counterattack would doubtless include attacks on American citizens and property, just as if the U.S. had participated in the attack directly. American blood would be spilled and American treasure expended. A failure to support Israel would have additional consequences that may be less obvious but also are grave. If the U.S. failed to support Israel in its hour of need, America’s position of influence in the world would take a crippling blow.

West should strike Syria – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Just like it failed to bomb Auschwitz, world is doing nothing in face of Syria massacre

Merav Betito

Russia and China, Cinderella’s two evil sisters, are showing fake concern and managing to drive away the prince, yet another helpless man who would say “I tried, I really did,” while the corpses are piling up around him.

These evil sisters are protecting their tortured, suffering “sister” from being subjected to the global conscience, which went to sleep and has not woken up yet since World War II, when the allies debated whether to bomb Auschwitz.

And so, shamelessly, Russia and China are safeguarding a simple economic interest: As long as the foolish Assadneeds arms in order to massacre his subjects, Russia and China will provide him with more and more bombs that would make the slaughter mission easier.

This arrangement is convenient for all sides: For the silent, defeated Western world, for the mass murderer in Syria, and for the interested parties on the other side of the globe, far away from the commotion.

While teaching history classes as a high school teacher, there was one question I was never able to provide a real answer for: How come the world knew but kept silent? The real answer, of course, is that it was convenient. However, my students, as students tend to do, did not settle for this answer and sought additional motives.

Assad a dead man walking

Forget about it, I told them. The world finds it convenient to cave in under the guise of diplomatic agreements finalized in air-conditioned rooms at the institution set up in the wake of World War II: The United Nations. I also explained that this body was established in order to put an end to wars between states and provide a platform for international dialogue.

Assad is a dead man walking, and one can already imagine his body hanging in the main square in the city of the aching, bleeding Homs. I pray that the idiot will let his young children flee before the masses butcher them as well.

A moment before it’s too late, Western countries must strike Syria. The cries of the wounded are resonating from the radio and the horrific videos are being aired on newscasts. However, the world continues to cling to the tradition of deafness and muteness – because it’s convenient; because there are a thousand other problems to deal with; because China and Russia used their veto

Sanctions working? Iran defaults on payments to India – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Default prompts head of the All India Rice Exporters’ Association to call on members to stop rice exports to Iran based on credit.

By Reuters

Iranian buyers have defaulted on payments for about 200,000 tons of rice from their top supplier India, exporters and rice millers said on Tuesday, a sign of the mounting pressure on Tehran from a new wave of Western sanctions.

The default prompted the head of the All India Rice Exporters’ Association to call on members to stop rice exports to Iran based on credit, which would be a fresh blow to a country where imports of staple foods are already being hampered by sanctions.

	Iranian vendor sells pistachio in Tehran’s old main bazaar, Iran.
	Photo by: AP

“It is a serious issue and we do not rule out further payment defaults by Iran,” said Vijay Setia, the association’s president.

Indian sources said the Iranian buyers had defaulted on payments worth about e144 million for rice shipments under long-term supply deals. Iran shipped the cargoes from Indian ports in October and November. Most Indian rice exporters allow 90 days credit.

Iran relies on imports for about 45 pct of its annual rice consumption of 2.9 million tons, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

In other supply disruptions, five deliveries of grain to Iran were diverted to new destinations because payments were held up, ship tracking data showed last week. Other cargoes are sitting offshore Iran because of difficulty with payments.

Under a tightening grip of sanctions, the country of 74 million people is finding it increasingly difficult to repatriate the hard currency from its crude oil exports, its major foreign currency earner, that it needs to pay for shipments of food and other imports.

A sharp drop in the value of the Rial is adding to Iran’s import costs and the financial sanctions make it difficult for traders in the country to channel import payments through unofficial routes involving middlemen based in Dubai.

India is Iran’s top rice supplier, accounting for some 70 percent of its annual requirement of 1-1.2 million tons of the grain, mainly the aromatic variety called Basmati.

Traders and officials in Iran could not be immediately reached to comment.

The United States slapped fresh sanctions on Tehran from the start of this year, targeting financial institutions that deal with the central bank, hoping to stem oil revenues and persuade Iran to abandon a suspected nuclear weapons program.

U.S. President Barack Obama tightened those sanctions on Sunday, again targeting Iran’s central bank and giving U.S. banks new powers to freeze assets linked to Tehran.

The European Union has agreed to ban Iranian oil imports, a measure expected to take full effect within six months.

Sanctions bighting?

The rice defaults could be the latest sign that those sanctions are biting as Iranian importers find it increasingly difficult to settle payments.

Ukraine’s maize exports to Iran dropped 40 percent in January due to payment problems, Ukrainian consultancy ProAgro said last week.

Ukrainian and European traders said they were no longer booking Ukraine grains shipments to Iran because of the payments difficulties, although talks were underway to save the market, the country’s farm minister said.

Five ships of grain have been diverted away from Iran to other destinations and about 400,000 tons of grains on at least 10 vessels have been held up outside Iranian ports because of payments problems, trade sources said last week.

The Indian rice association’s Setia said the group had approached the Indian government to recover their dues.

“As part of efforts to minimize losses, we are asking our colleagues to avoid sending rice on credit,” he said, adding they were not calling for a ban on exports to Iran.

A government source acknowledged exporters had sought help.

The rice default is the latest snag in India-Iran trade, which is heavily skewed towards Tehran.

India is Iran’s second-largest buyer of crude and it has struggled to settle payments worth some e11 billion annually after New Delhi scrapped a long-standing mechanism in 2010 under pressure from Washington.

While New Delhi has switched to a payment conduit for its Iranian oil using a Turkish bank, Indian rice exporters have been using a loose, unofficial route involving a network of middlemen based in Dubai.

The middlemen receive payments from Iranian importers in Rial and pay Indian exporters in U.S. dollars. The consignments are sent directly from India to Iran.

Indian traders said the defaults started after the Rial plunged over the past month, making previous purchases costlier for Iranian importers.

The cost of transactions also went up for the Dubai middlemen as they use U.S. dollars to pay Indian exporters.

On January 26, Iran announced an 8 percent devaluation of the Rial and said it would enforce a single exchange rate, aiming to stamp out a black market where the dollar’s value has soared due to fears over new sanctions imposed by the West.

Indian traders said about 20 Iranian companies have failed to clear their dues during the past month.

“It threatens to jeopardize the trade with them, hurting both India and Iran,” Anil K. Mittal, chairman of KRBL Ltd, a leading Indian rice miller and exporter, told Reuters.

“Due to sanctions on Iran, currently banks are not involved in payments to Indian rice suppliers. The payments are direct and at times on credit, making Indian exporters vulnerable to defaults. Indian traders must avoid supplying on credit.”

Setia said India should not send any more rice to Iran on credit, adding suppliers such as those in Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan had already stopped doing so.

However, the Thai Rice Exporters’ Association said Thailand had stopped selling rice to Iran about a decade ago.

Javed Agha, chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan acknowledged that sanctions had made traders reluctant in both Pakistan and Iran to do deals.

“Banking if a problem between Pakistan and Iran,” he said. “There is no proper system.”

Boosting exports to Iran

New Delhi will send a delegation to Iran this month to explore boosting exports to smooth use of the restricted rupee currency, which the two sides have agreed to use to settle 45 percent of India’s e11 billion a year oil bill.

But this would give Iran large amounts of a currency which is difficult to use for international trade.

An Indian ministerial panel on food exports meets on Tuesday to review rice and sugar shipments. The issue of exports to Iran is not on the agenda, government officials said, seeking to knock down reports that the panel could discuss the possibility of boosting rice and wheat exports to Tehran.

India is expected to produce 102.75 million tons of rice in the crop year to June 2012, a farm ministry forecast said last month. Basmati makes up around 5 percent of India’s total rice production.

India’s Jan. 1 rice inventory at government warehouses was 29.8 million tons against a target of 11.8 million tons.

China, Japan, India and South Korea, which together buy about half or Iran’s 2.6 million barrels per day of crude exports, are under pressure from U.S. sanctions to cut back their purchases.

China has already cut Iran imports in the first three months of this year over a pricing dispute and a flurry of U.S. diplomats has discussed the sanctions with Asian government officials.

South Korea is paying Iran for crude in its local currency, but difficulty repatriating the funds under the weight of sanctions means won worth an estimated e5 billion has piled up South Korean banks.